Structured Literature Review to Identify Human Papillomavirus's Natural History Parameters for Dynamic Population Models of Vaccine Impacts

Human papillomavirus (HPV) is a common sexually transmitted virus that can cause cervical cancer and other diseases. Dynamic transmission models (DTMs) have been developed to evaluate the health and economic impacts of HPV vaccination. These models typically include many parameters, such as natural history of the disease, transmission, demographic, behavioral, and screening. To ensure the accuracy of DTM projections, it is important to parameterize them with the best available evidence. This study aimed to identify and synthesize data needed to parametrize DTMs on the natural history of HPV infection and related diseases. Parameters describing data of interest were grouped by their anatomical location (genital warts, recurrent respiratory papillomatosis, and cervical, anal, vaginal, vulvar, head and neck, and penile cancers), and natural history (progression, regression, death, cure, recurrence, detection), and were identified through a systematic literature review (SLR) and complementary targeted literature reviews (TLRs). The extracted data were then synthesized by pooling parameter values across publications, and summarized using the range of values across studies reporting each parameter and the median value from the most relevant study. Data were extracted and synthesized from 223 studies identified in the SLR and TLRs. Parameters frequently reported pertained to cervical cancer outcomes, while data for other anatomical locations were less available. The synthesis of the data provides a large volume of parameter values to inform HPV DTMs, such as annual progression rates from cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 1 to CIN 2+ (median of highest quality estimate 0.0836), CIN 2 to CIN 3+ (0.0418), carcinoma in situ (CIS) 2 to local cancer+ (0.0396), and regional to distant cancer (0.0474). Our findings suggest that while there is a large body of evidence on cervical cancer, parameter values featured substantial heterogeneity across studies, and further studies are needed to better parametrize the non-cervical components of HPV DTMs.

Systematic review and network meta-analysis comparing the efficacy of fezolinetant with hormone and nonhormone therapies for treatment of vasomotor symptoms due to menopause

IMPORTANCE

The neurokinin 3 receptor antagonist fezolinetant 45 mg/d significantly reduced frequency/severity of moderate to severe vasomotor symptoms (VMS) of menopause compared with placebo in two phase 3 randomized controlled trials. Its efficacy relative to available therapies is unknown.

OBJECTIVE

We conducted a systematic review and Bayesian network meta-analysis to compare efficacy with fezolinetant 45 mg and hormone therapy (HT) and non-HT for VMS in postmenopausal women.

EVIDENCE REVIEW

Using OvidSP, we systematically searched multiple databases for phase 3 or 4 randomized controlled trials in postmenopausal women with ≥7 moderate to severe VMS per day or ≥50 VMS per week published/presented in English through June 25, 2021. Mean change in frequency and severity of moderate to severe VMS from baseline to week 12 and proportion of women with ≥75% reduction in VMS frequency at week 12 were assessed using fixed-effect models.

FINDINGS

The network meta-analysis included data from the pooled phase 3 fezolinetant trials plus 23 comparator publications across the outcomes analyzed (frequency, 19 [34 regimens]; severity, 6 [7 regimens]; ≥75% response, 9 [15 regimens]). Changes in VMS frequency did not differ significantly between fezolinetant 45 mg and any of the 27 HT regimens studied. Fezolinetant 45 mg reduced the frequency of moderate to severe VMS events per day significantly more than all non-HTs evaluated: paroxetine 7.5 mg (mean difference [95% credible interval {CrI}], 1.66 [0.63-2.71]), desvenlafaxine 50 to 200 mg (mean differences [95% CrI], 1.12 [0.10-2.13] to 2.16 [0.90-3.40]), and gabapentin ER 1800 mg (mean difference [95% CrI], 1.63 [0.48-2.81]), and significantly more than placebo (mean difference, 2.78 [95% CrI], 1.93-3.62]). Tibolone 2.5 mg (the only HT regimen evaluable for severity) significantly reduced VMS severity compared with fezolinetant 45 mg. Fezolinetant 45 mg significantly reduced VMS severity compared with desvenlafaxine 50 mg and placebo and did not differ significantly from higher desvenlafaxine doses or gabapentin ER 1800 mg. For ≥75% responder rates, fezolinetant 45 mg was less effective than tibolone 2.5 mg (not available in the United States) and conjugated estrogens 0.625 mg/bazedoxifene 20 mg (available only as 0.45 mg/20 mg in the United States), did not differ significantly from other non-HT regimens studied and was superior to desvenlafaxine 50 mg and placebo.

CONCLUSIONS

The only HT regimens that showed significantly greater efficacy than fezolinetant 45 mg on any of the outcomes analyzed are not available in the United States. Fezolinetant 45 mg once daily was statistically significantly more effective than other non-HTs in reducing the frequency of moderate to severe VMS.

RELEVANCE

These findings may inform decision making with regard to the individualized management of bothersome VMS due to menopause.

Cost Per Relapse Avoided for Ozanimod Versus Other Selected Disease-Modifying Therapies for Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis in the United States

INTRODUCTION

This study assessed the cost-effectiveness of ozanimod compared with commonly used disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS).

METHODS

Annualized relapse rate (ARR) and safety data were obtained from a network meta-analysis (NMA) of clinical trials of RRMS treatments including ozanimod, fingolimod, dimethyl fumarate, teriflunomide, interferon beta-1a, interferon beta-1b, and glatiramer acetate. ARR-related number needed to treat (NNT) relative to placebo and annual total MS-related healthcare costs was used to estimate the incremental annual cost per relapse avoided with ozanimod vs each DMT. ARR and adverse event (AE) data were combined with drug costs and healthcare costs to manage relapses and AEs in order to estimate annual cost savings with ozanimod vs other DMTs, assuming a 1 million USD fixed treatment budget.

RESULTS

Treatment with ozanimod was associated with lower incremental annual healthcare costs to avoid a relapse, ranging from $843,684 vs interferon beta-1a (30 μg; 95% confidence interval [CI] - $1,431,619, - $255,749) to $72,847 (95% CI - $153,444, $7750) vs fingolimod. Compared with all other DMTs, ozanimod was associated with overall healthcare cost savings ranging from $8257 vs interferon beta-1a (30 μg) to $2178 vs fingolimod. Compared with oral DMTs, ozanimod was associated with annual cost savings of $6199 with teriflunomide 7 mg, $4737 with teriflunomide 14 mg, $2178 with fingolimod, and $2793 with dimethyl fumarate.

CONCLUSION

Treatment with ozanimod was associated with substantial reductions in annual drug costs and total MS-related healthcare costs to avoid relapses compared with other DMTs. In the fixed-budget analysis, ozanimod demonstrated a favorable cost-effective profile relative to other DMTs.

Comparative efficacy and safety of ozanimod and ponesimod for relapsing multiple sclerosis: A matching-adjusted indirect comparison

BACKGROUND

Ozanimod and ponesimod are sphingosine 1-phosphate receptor modulators approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for treatment of relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis (MS). Given that no head-to-head trials have assessed these two treatments, we performed a matching-adjusted indirect comparison (MAIC) to compare efficacy and safety outcomes between ozanimod and ponesimod for MS.

METHODS

A MAIC compared efficacy and safety of ozanimod and ponesimod at 2 years. Outcomes included annualized relapse rate (ARR) and percentage change from baseline in brain volume loss (BVL) as well as rates of any treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs), serious adverse events (AEs), AEs leading to discontinuation, and other safety outcomes. Individual patient-level data were obtained for ozanimod from the RADIANCE-B trial, while aggregate-level patient data were obtained for ponesimod from the OPTIMUM trial. The MAIC was not anchored owing to lack of a common comparator across the two trials. The following characteristics were matched between the trials' populations: age, sex, time since MS symptom onset, relapses in prior year, Expanded Disability Status Scale score, disease-modifying therapies received in the prior 2 years, absence of gadolinium-enhancing T1 lesions, and percentage of patients from Eastern Europe.

RESULTS

After matching, key baseline characteristics were balanced between patients receiving ozanimod and ponesimod. Compared with ponesimod, ozanimod had a numerically lower ARR (rate ratio: 0.80 [95% CI: 0.57, 1.10]) and was associated with a significant reduction in BVL (% change difference: 0.20 [95% CI: 0.05, 0.36]). Additionally, ozanimod was associated with a significantly lower risk of TEAEs (risk difference: -11.9% [95% CI: -16.8%, -7.0%]), AEs leading to discontinuation (-6.1% [95% CI: -8.9%, -3.4%]), and lymphocyte count <0.2 K/μL (-2.3% [95% CI: -4.2%, -0.5%]). There were no statistically significant differences in the other safety outcomes.

CONCLUSION

The MAIC results suggest that, compared with ponesimod, ozanimod is more effective in preserving brain volume, is comparable in terms of reducing relapse rates, and has a favorable safety profile.

Development of the PREDS score to predict in-hospital mortality of patients with Ebola virus disease under advanced supportive care: Results from the EVISTA cohort in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

BACKGROUND

As mortality remains high for patients with Ebola virus disease (EVD) despite new treatment options, the ability to level up the provided supportive care and to predict the risk of death is of major importance. This analysis of the EVISTA cohort aims to describe advanced supportive care provided to EVD patients in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and to develop a simple risk score for predicting in-hospital death, called PREDS.

METHODS

In this prospective cohort (NCT04815175), patients were recruited during the 10^th EVD outbreak in the DRC across three Ebola Treatment Centers (ETCs). Demographic, clinical, biological, virological and treatment data were collected. We evaluated factors known to affect the risk of in-hospital death and applied univariate and multivariate Cox proportional-hazards analyses to derive the risk score in a training dataset. We validated the score in an internal-validation dataset, applying C-statistics as a measure of discrimination.

FINDINGS

Between August 1^st 2018 and December 31^th 2019, 711 patients were enrolled in the study. Regarding supportive care, patients received vasopressive drug (n = 111), blood transfusion (n = 101), oxygen therapy (n = 250) and cardio-pulmonary ultrasound (n = 15). Overall, 323 (45%) patients died before day 28. Six independent prognostic factors were identified (ALT, creatinine, modified NEWS2 score, viral load, age and symptom duration). The final score range from 0 to 13 points, with a good concordance (C = 86.24%) and calibration with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (p = 0.12).

INTERPRETATION

The implementation of advanced supportive care is possible for EVD patients in emergency settings. PREDS is a simple, accurate tool that could help in orienting early advanced care for at-risk patients after external validation.

FUNDING

This study was funded by ALIMA.

Real-world effectiveness after initiating fremanezumab treatment in US patients with episodic and chronic migraine or difficult-to-treat migraine

Background

Fremanezumab, a fully humanized monoclonal antibody (mAb; IgG2Δa) that selectively targets calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP), is approved for the preventive treatment of migraine in adults. The efficacy and safety of fremanezumab for migraine prevention have been demonstrated in randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials. Real-world effectiveness data are needed to complement clinical trial data. This study assessed the effectiveness of fremanezumab across different subgroups of adult patients with episodic migraine (EM), chronic migraine (CM), or difficult-to-treat (DTT) migraine in real-world clinical settings.

Methods

This retrospective, panel-based online chart review used electronic case report forms. Patient inclusion criteria were a physician diagnosis of EM or CM; age ≥ 18 years at the time of first fremanezumab initiation; ≥ 1 dose of fremanezumab treatment; ≥ 1 follow-up visit since first initiation; and ≥ 2 measurements of monthly migraine days (MMD; with 1 within a month before or at first initiation and ≥ 1 after first initiation). Changes in MMD and monthly headache days were assessed during the follow-up period. These endpoints were evaluated in subgroups of patients by migraine type (EM/CM) and in subgroups with DTT migraine (diagnosis of medication overuse [MO], major depressive disorder [MDD], generalized anxiety disorder [GAD], or prior exposure to a different CGRP pathway–targeted mAb [CGRP mAb]).

Results

Data were collected from 421 clinicians and 1003 patients. Mean (percent) reductions from baseline in MMD at Month 6 were − 7.7 (77.0%) in EM patients, − 10.1 (68.7%) in CM patients, − 10.8 (80.6%) in the MO subgroup, − 9.9 (68.3%) in the MDD subgroup, − 9.5 (66.4%) in the GAD subgroup, and − 9.0 (68.7%) in the prior CGRP mAb exposure subgroup. Improvements in MDD or GAD severity were reported by 45.5% and 45.8% of patients with comorbid MDD or GAD, respectively.

Conclusions

In this real-world study, fremanezumab demonstrated effectiveness for migraine regardless of migraine type or the presence of factors contributing to DTT migraine (MO, GAD, MDD, or prior exposure to a different CGRP mAb).

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s10194-022-01415-x.

Real-world effectiveness of fremanezumab in migraine patients initiating treatment in the United States: results from a retrospective chart study

Background

The efficacy and tolerability of fremanezumab, a fully humanized monoclonal antibody (IgG2Δa) that selectively targets calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP) and is approved for the preventive treatment of migraine in adults, have been demonstrated in randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials. Real-world data can further support those clinical trial data and demonstrate the full clinical benefits of fremanezumab. This chart review assessed the effectiveness of fremanezumab for improving clinical outcomes in adult patients with migraine treated according to real-world clinical practice.

Methods

This retrospective, panel-based, online physician chart review study used electronic case report forms with US physicians. Patient inclusion criteria were a physician diagnosis of migraine, fremanezumab treatment initiation at ≥ 18 years of age after US Food and Drug Administration approval, ≥ 1 dose of fremanezumab treatment, and ≥ 2 assessments of monthly migraine days (MMD; 1 within 30 days before treatment initiation and ≥ 1 after initiation). Changes from baseline in MMD, monthly headache days (MHD), and Migraine Disability Assessment (MIDAS) and 6-item Headache Impact Test (HIT-6) scores were assessed over 6 months. These endpoints were evaluated in the overall population and subgroups divided by dosing schedule and number of prior migraine preventive treatment failures.

Results

This study included data from 421 clinicians and 1003 patients. Mean age at fremanezumab initiation was 39.7 years, and most patients were female (75.8%). In the overall population, mean baseline MMD and MHD were 12.7 and 14.0, respectively. Mean (percent) reductions from baseline in MMD and MHD, respectively, were − 4.6 (36.2%) and − 4.7 (33.6%) at Month 1, − 6.7 (52.8%) and − 6.8 (48.6%) at Month 3, and − 9.2 (72.4%) and − 9.8 (70.0%) at Month 6. Mean (percent) reductions from baseline in MIDAS and HIT-6 scores also increased over the 6-month study period, from − 6.2 (21.6%) and − 8.4 (14.0%) at Month 1 to − 18.1 (63.1%) and − 16.2 (27.0%) at Month 6, respectively. Improvements in these outcomes over 6 months were observed across all evaluated subgroups.

Conclusions

This real-world study demonstrated effectiveness of fremanezumab treatment for up to 6 months, irrespective of dosing regimen or number of prior migraine preventive treatment failures, reflecting ongoing, clinically meaningful improvements in patient outcomes.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s10194-022-01411-1.

Modeling the health and economic implications of adopting a 1-dose 9-valent human papillomavirus vaccination regimen in a high-income country setting: An analysis in the United Kingdom

Although no human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine is indicated for single-dose administration, some observational evidence suggests that a 1-dose regimen might reduce HPV infection risk to that achieved with 2 doses. This study estimated the potential health and economic outcomes associated with switching from a 2-dose HPV vaccination program for girls and boys aged 13-14 years to an off-label 9-valent (9vHPV), 1-dose regimen, accounting for the uncertainty of the effectiveness and durability of a single dose. A dynamic HPV transmission infection and disease model was adapted to the United Kingdom and included a probabilistic sensitivity analysis using estimated distributions for duration of protection of 1-dose and degree of protection of 1 relative to 2 doses. One-way sensitivity analyses of key inputs were performed. Outcomes included additional cancer and disease cases and the difference in net monetary benefit (NMB). The 1-dose program was predicted to result in 81,738 additional HPV-related cancer cases in males and females over 100 years compared to the 2-dose program, ranging from 36,673 to 134,347 additional cases (2.5% and 97.5% quantiles, respectively), and had a 7.8% probability of being cost-effective at the £20,000/quality-adjusted life years willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold. In one-way sensitivity analyses, the number of additional cancer cases was sensitive to the median of the duration of protection distribution and coverage rates. The differences in NMBs were sensitive to the median of the duration of protection distribution, dose price and discount rate, but not coverage variations. Across sensitivity analyses, the probability of 1 dose being cost-effective vs 2 doses was < 50% at the standard WTP threshold. Adoption of a 1-dose 9vHPV vaccination program resulted in more vaccine-preventable HPV-related cancer and disease cases in males and females, introduced substantial uncertainty in health and economic outcomes, and had a low probability of being cost-effective compared to the 2-dose program.

Prevalence of post-traumatic stress disorder in the United States: a systematic literature review

OBJECTIVE

This study synthesized evidence regarding the prevalence of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in the United States (US).

METHODS

A systematic literature review (SLR) identified recently published (2015-2019) observational studies of PTSD prevalence in the US via the MEDLINE, EMBASE, and PsycINFO databases. Eligible studies' most recent data were collected no earlier than 2013. Data elements extracted included study design, sample size, location, data source/year(s), study population(s), traumatic event type, prevalance estimates with corresponding look-back periods, and clinical metrics.

RESULTS

Data from 38 identified articles were categorized by population, diagnostic criteria, and lookback period. Among civilians, point prevalence ranged from 8.0% to 56.7%, 1-year prevalence from 2.3% to 9.1%, and lifetime prevalence from 3.4% to 26.9%. In military populations, point prevalence ranged from 1.2% to 87.5%, 1-year prevalence from 6.7% to 50.2%, and lifetime prevalence from 7.7% to 17.0%. Within these ranges, several estimates were derived from relatively high quality data; these articles are highlighted in the review. Prevalence was elevated in subpopulations including emergency responders, refugees, American Indian/Alaska Natives, individuals with heavy substance use, individuals with a past suicide attempt, trans-masculine individuals, and women with prior military sexual trauma. Female sex, lower income, younger age, and behavioral health conditions were identified as risk factors for PTSD.

CONCLUSIONS

PTSD prevalence estimates varied widely, partly due to different study designs, populations, and methodologies, and recent nationally representative estimates were lacking. Efforts to increase PTSD screening and improve disease awareness may allow for a better detection and management of PTSD.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on adolescent vaccinations: projected time to reverse deficits in routine adolescent vaccination in the United States

OBJECTIVE

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to significant reductions in the administration of routinely recommended vaccines among adolescents in the US including tetanus, diphtheria, and acellular pertussis (Tdap); meningococcal (ACWY); and human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines. The extent to which these deficits could persist in 2021 and beyond is unclear. To address this knowledge gap, this study estimated the cumulative deficits of routine vaccine doses among US adolescents during the COVID-19 pandemic and estimated the time and effort needed to recover from those deficits.

METHODS

Monthly reductions in Tdap, meningococcal, and HPV doses administered to US adolescents during the COVID-19 pandemic were quantified using MarketScan Commercial Claims and Encounters data. The time and effort required to reverse the vaccination deficit under various catch-up scenarios were estimated.

RESULTS

Annual doses administered of Tdap, meningococcus, and HPV vaccines decreased by 21.2%, 20.8%, and 24.0%, respectively, in 2020 compared to 2019. For 2021, the reduction in doses administered is projected to be 6%-21% compared to 2019 under different scenarios. The projected deficit of missed doses is expected to be cleared between winter 2023 and fall 2031.

CONCLUSIONS

Administration rates of routine vaccines decreased significantly among US adolescents during COVID-19. Reversing these deficits to mitigate long-term health and economic consequences will require a sustained increase in vaccination rates over multiple years.

Estimating the drivers of urban economic complexity and their connection to economic performance

Estimating the capabilities, or inputs of production, that drive and constrain the economic development of urban areas has remained a challenging goal. We posit that capabilities are instantiated in the complexity and sophistication of urban activities, the know-how of individual workers, and the city-wide collective know-how. We derive a model that indicates how the value of these three quantities can be inferred from the probability that an individual in a city is employed in a given urban activity. We illustrate how to estimate empirically these variables using data on employment across industries and metropolitan statistical areas in the USA. We then show how the functional form of the probability function derived from our theory is statistically superior when compared with competing alternative models, and that it explains well-known results in the urban scaling and economic complexity literature. Finally, we show how the quantities are associated with metrics of economic performance, suggesting our theory can provide testable implications for why some cities are more prosperous than others.

Causal inference and adjustment for reference-arm risk in indirect treatment comparison meta-analysis

Aim: To illustrate that bias associated with indirect treatment comparison and network meta-analyses can be reduced by adjusting for outcomes on common reference arms. Materials & methods: Approaches to adjusting for reference-arm effects are presented within a causal inference framework. Bayesian and Frequentist approaches are applied to three real data examples. Results: Reference-arm adjustment can significantly impact estimated treatment differences, improve model fit and align indirectly estimated treatment effects with those observed in randomized trials. Reference-arm adjustment can possibly reverse the direction of estimated treatment effects. Conclusion: Accumulating theoretical and empirical evidence underscores the importance of adjusting for reference-arm outcomes in indirect treatment comparison and network meta-analyses to make full use of data and reduce the risk of bias in estimated treatments effects.

Comparative safety and efficacy of ozanimod versus fingolimod for relapsing multiple sclerosis

Aim: Ozanimod and fingolimod are sphingosine 1-phosphate receptor-modulating therapies for relapsing multiple sclerosis. Patients & methods: Comparative effectiveness was assessed by matching adjusted indirect comparisons of safety and efficacy trial outcomes at first-dose cardiac monitoring, 1 year and 2 years. Results: After adjustment, baseline characteristics were similar. Ozanimod was associated with a lower risk of extended first-dose monitoring, conduction abnormalities including atrioventricular block. One-year risks of any adverse event (AE), mean lymphocyte count reductions and abnormal liver enzymes were lower with ozanimod. Two-year risks of AEs leading to discontinuation, any AEs, herpetic infections, bradycardia and abnormal liver enzymes were lower with ozanimod. Analyses of efficacy outcomes were similar. Conclusion: Ozanimod appears to have a favorable benefit-risk profile versus fingolimod.

Risk assessment and prediction of TD incidence in psychiatric patients taking concomitant antipsychotics: a retrospective data analysis

Background

Tardive dyskinesia (TD) is a serious, often irreversible movement disorder caused by prolonged exposure to antipsychotics; identifying patients at risk for TD is critical to preventing it. Predictive models for the occurrence of TD can improve patient monitoring and inform implementation of counteractive interventions. This study aims to identify risk factors associated with TD and to develop a model using a retrospective data analysis to predict the incidence of TD among patients taking antipsychotic medications.

Methods

Adult patients with schizophrenia, major depressive disorder, or bipolar disorder taking oral antipsychotics were identified in a Medicaid claims database (covering six US states from 1997 to 2016) and divided into cohorts based on whether they developed TD within 1 year after the first observed claim for antipsychotics. Patient characteristics between cohorts were compared, and univariate Cox analyses were used to identify potential TD risk factors. A cross-validated version of the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression method was used to develop a parsimonious multivariable Cox proportional hazards model to predict diagnosis of TD.

Results

A total of 189,415 eligible patients were identified. Potential TD risk factors were identified based on the cohort analysis within a sample of 151,280 patients with at least 1 year of continuous eligibility. The prediction model had a clinically meaningful concordance of 70% and was well calibrated (P = 0.32 for Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test). Age (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.04, P < 0.001), diagnosis of schizophrenia (HR = 1.99, P < 0.001), antipsychotic dosage (up to 100 mg/day chlorpromazine equivalent; HR = 1.65, P < 0.01), and comorbid bipolar and related disorders (HR = 1.39, P < 0.01) were significantly associated with an increased risk of TD. Other potential risk factors included history of extrapyramidal symptoms (HR = 1.35), other movement disorders (parkinsonism, HR = 1.43; bradykinesia, HR = 1.44; tremors, HR = 2.12, and myoclonus, HR = 2.33), and diabetes (HR = 1.13). A modest reduction in the risk of TD was associated with the use of second-generation antipsychotics (HR = 0.85) versus first-generation drugs.

Conclusions

This study identified factors associated with development of TD among patients taking antipsychotics. The prediction model described herein can enable physicians to better monitor patients at high risk for TD and recommend appropriate treatment plans to help maintain quality of life.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12883-019-1385-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Systematic literature review of clinical trials of endocrine therapies for premenopausal women with metastatic HR+ HER2- breast cancer

Several endocrine-based therapies have recently been evaluated as treatments for premenopausal women with hormone-receptor-positive/human-epidermal-growth-factor-receptor 2 negative (HR+/HER2-) metastatic breast cancer (mBC). We conducted a systematic review and assessed the feasibility of an indirect treatment comparison (ITC) to characterize the comparative efficacy of endocrine-based therapies in this setting. A systematic literature review (SLR) of Medline, EMBASE, Cochrane Library and key conferences was performed to identify randomized clinical trials (RCTs) satisfying the following criteria: (a) included pre/perimenopausal women with HR+/HER2- mBC, (b) included endocrine-based therapies, (c) reported efficacy, safety, or quality of life outcomes, and (d) was published in 2007 or later (when HER2 testing was standardized). The clinical and methodological similarities across trials were assessed to evaluate the feasibility of an ITC. Four RCTs (PALOMA-3, MONARCH-2, KCSG BR10-04 and MONALEESA-7) and eight regimens (palbociclib + fulvestrant + goserelin, fulvestrant + goserelin, abemaciclib + fulvestrant + gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonist [GnRHa], fulvestrant + GnRHa, anastrozole + goserelin, goserelin, ribociclib + NSAI/tamoxifen + goserelin and NSAI/tamoxifen + goserelin) were selected. MONALEESA-7 was the only phase 3 trial investigating endocrine-based therapies as first-line in only pre/perimenopausal women with HR+/HER2- mBC; the other three trials focused on the ET-failure setting and their pre/perimenopausal populations were relatively small. ITCs were methodologically unfeasible due to critical differences in treatment settings and lack of common comparators across trials. Therefore, we were not able to characterize the relative efficacy of the different endocrine-based therapies available in the premenopausal HR+/HER2- mBC setting. This systematic review provides a comprehensive assessment of the available trial evidence on the efficacy and safety of endocrine-based therapies for premenopausal women with HR+/HER2- mBC. Only four trials have reported relevant data in this setting, and MONALEESA-7 is currently the only trial focused on premenopausal HR+ HER2- mBC in the first-line setting.

Effectiveness of first-line treatments in metastatic squamous non-small-cell lung cancer

Background

Commonly used first-line (1L) chemotherapies for patients with advanced squamous-cell lung cancer (scc) include gemcitabine-platinum (gp), nab-paclitaxel-carboplatin (nabpc), and sb-paclitaxel-carboplatin (sbpc) regimens. However, no head-to-head trials have compared those treatments. In the present study, we compared the efficacy of 1L gp, nabpc, and sbpc in patients with scc and in patients with scc who subsequently received second-line (2L) immunotherapy.

Methods

Medical records of patients who initiated the 1L treatments of interest between June 2014 and October 2015 were reviewed by 132 participating physicians. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to evaluate overall survival (os), progression-free survival (pfs), and treatment discontinuation (td), and then Cox proportional hazards regression was used to compare the results between the cohorts.

Results

Medical records of 458 patients with scc receiving gp (n = 139), nabpc (n = 159), or sbpc (n = 160) as 1L therapy were reviewed. Median os was longer with nabpc (23.9 months) than with gp (16.9 months; adjusted hazard ratio vs. nabpc: 1.55; p < 0.05) and with sbpc (18.3 months; adjusted hazard ratio: 1.42; p = 0.10). No differences were observed in pfs (median pfs: 8.8, 8.0, and 7.6 months for gp, nabpc, and sbpc respectively; log-rank p = 0.76) or in td (median td: 5.5, 5.7, and 4.6 months respectively; p = 0.65). For patients who subsequently received 2L immunotherapy, no differences in os were observed (median os: 27.3, 25.0, and 23.0 months respectively; p = 0.59).

Conclusions

In a nationwide sample of scc patients, longer median os was associated with 1L nabpc than with gp and sbpc. Median os for all 1L agents considered was similar in the subgroup of patients who sequenced to a 2L immunotherapy.

Progression-free survival with endocrine-based therapies following progression on non-steroidal aromatase inhibitor among postmenopausal women with hormone receptor positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 negative metastatic breast cancer: a network meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To quantify the comparative efficacy of currently available endocrine-based therapies (ETs) for postmenopausal women with hormone receptor positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 negative (HR+/HER2-) metastatic breast cancer (mBC) after non-steroidal aromatase inhibitor (NSAI) progression.

DESIGN

Network meta-analysis (NMA).

METHODS

Randomized clinical trials of ETs for HR+/HER2- mBC were identified via a systematic literature review using MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library and key conference proceedings. All trials met the following inclusion criteria: (1) included women with HR+/HER2- mBC; (2) previous treatment with ETs or chemotherapy as first-line therapy; (3) treatment with ET as monotherapy or in combination with targeted therapy; (4) progression-free survival (PFS) was reported; and (5) published in 2007 (when HER2 testing became standardized) or later. Regimens were compared using pairwise hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% credible intervals (CrIs) of PFS obtained from a Bayesian NMA. Treatments with different approved dosages were pooled into the same arm; anastrozole and exemestane were pooled as aromatase inhibitors (AIs) due to clinical similarities.

RESULTS

A total of 4 trials and 6 regimens (palbociclib + fulvestrant, everolimus + fulvestrant, everolimus + AI, fulvestrant + AI, fulvestrant and AI) were eligible for inclusion. Palbociclib + fulvestrant and everolimus + AI had 50% and 55% reduced hazard of progression or death vs. AI (95% CrI upper bound ≤1), respectively. Palbociclib + fulvestrant, everolimus + AI and everolimus + fulvestrant had 54%, 58% and 40% reduced hazard vs. fulvestrant (95% CrI upper bound ≤1), while palbociclib + fulvestrant and everolimus + AI had 52% and 55% reduced hazard vs. fulvestrant + AI (95% CrI upper bound ≤1), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Postmenopausal women with HR+/HER2- mBC who had previously failed an NSAI and received palbociclib + fulvestrant, everolimus + AI or everolimus + fulvestrant had longer PFS compared to those who received fulvestrant or AI alone.

Progression-free Survival With First-line Endocrine-based Therapies Among Postmenopausal Women With HR+/HER2- Metastatic Breast Cancer:: A Network Meta-analysis

PURPOSE

The comparative efficacy of endocrine-based therapies (ETs) for hormone receptor-positive/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative (HR+/HER2-) metastatic breast cancer (mBC) is not well characterized. This network meta-analysis (NMA) synthesized available evidence on progression-free survival (PFS) with first-line ETs for postmenopausal HR+/HER2- mBC.

METHODS

A systematic literature review identified randomized controlled trials of first-line ETs. Pairwise hazard ratios and 95% credible intervals (CrIs) were obtained via a Bayesian NMA model. Subgroup NMAs were conducted among late progressors (disease-free interval ≥12 months from completion of [neo] adjuvant therapy with letrozole or anastrozole at the time of randomization) and de novo patients, defined as patients whose initial BC diagnosis is mBC.

FINDINGS

Five trials and 5 regimens (ribociclib + an aromatase inhibitor [AI] [LEE + AI], palbociclib + AI [Pal + AI], fulvestrant 250 mg + AI [Ful250 + AI], fulvestrant 500 mg [Ful500], and AI) were selected. LEE + AI, Pal + AI, Ful250 + AI, and Ful500 had significantly longer PFS versus AI (95% CrI upper-bound ≤1). LEE + AI had a 30% and 29%, and Pal + AI had a 31% and 30%, reduced hazard of progression or death versus Ful250 + AI and Ful500 (95% CrI upper-bound ≤1), respectively. The probability of being the most efficacious was 46% for LEE + AI and 54% for Pal + AI. In subgroup analyses among late progressors, LEE + AI had a 4% reduced hazard of progression or death versus Pal + AI but was not statistically significant. In the de novo analysis, Pal + AI and LEE + AI had a 29% and 40% reduced hazard of progression or death versus Ful500, respectively, but were not statistically significant. In both subgroup analyses, all therapies had significantly longer PFS compared with AI.

IMPLICATIONS

Pal + AI, LEE + AI, Ful250 + AI, or Ful500 as first-line treatment for HR+/HER2- mBC had longer PFS than AI alone. Given the lack of head-to-head clinical trials comparing the efficacy of recently approved first-line ETs for HR+/HER2- mBC, these results have important clinical implications for the treatment of HR+/HER2- mBC in the first-line setting.

Comparative effectiveness of nab-paclitaxel plus gemcitabine versus FOLFIRINOX in metastatic pancreatic cancer: A nationwide chart review in the United States

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Background: nab-Paclitaxel plus gemcitabine ( nab-P+G) and FOLFIRINOX (FFX) are among the most common first-line (1L) therapies for metastatic adenocarcinoma of the pancreas (mPC), yet there is no head-to-head trial comparing their efficacy and real-world data is limited. As new second-line (2L) therapies become available, it is important to understand the real-world effectiveness associated with different treatment sequences. Methods: This retrospective cohort study compared the efficacy and safety of 1L nab-P+G vs. FFX, overall and under specific treatment sequences. Medical records were reviewed by 215 physicians across the US who provided information for mPC patients who initiated 1L with nab-P+G or FFX between 04/01/2015-12/31/2015. The outcomes of interest were overall survival (OS) and tolerability. OS was evaluated using Kaplan-Meier curves, and compared between cohorts using Cox proportional hazards model adjusting for baseline characteristics. Results: Medical records were reviewed for 654 patients receiving nab-P+G (n = 337) or FFX (n = 317) as 1L therapy for mPC. Patients in the nab-P+G cohort were older, less likely to have ECOG ≤ 1 and had more comorbidities than patients in the FFX cohort. There was no statistically significant difference in OS (adjusted HR = 0.99, p = 0.96), with median OS (mOS) being 12.1 and 13.8 months for nab-P+G and FFX, respectively. Among the subgroup of patients with ECOG ≤ 1, mOS was 14.1 and 13.7 months, respectively (adjusted HR = 1.00, p = 0.99). Among patients with 1L nab-P+G and FFX, 36.1% and 41.3% received 2L therapy and experienced mOS of 16.3 and 16.6 months, respectively (HR = 1.04, p = 0.76). Among commonly observed adverse events (AEs) (≥ 5% of patients in both cohorts), the rates of diarrhea, fatigue, mucositis, nausea and vomiting were higher in the FFX than nab-P+G cohort (all p < 0.05). Conclusions: In a nationwide sample of mPC patients, real-world survival outcomes were similar between patients receiving 1L nab-P+G or FFX. both overall and among patients who went on to receive active 2L treatments. In addition, nab-P+G was associated with significantly lower rates of common AEs compared with FFX.

Comparative efficacy with endocrine-based combination versus monotherapy among postmenopausal women with HR+/ HER2- metastatic breast cancer: A network meta-analysis

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Background: Endocrine-based therapies (ETs) are used to treat postmenopausal women with hormone receptor positive/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 negative (HR+/HER2-) advanced breast cancer (ABC). This study synthesizes the available evidence on progression-free survival (PFS), overall response rate (ORR) and clinical benefit rate (CBR) with ETs, as monotherapy and in combination with targeted therapy (TT), in postmenopausal HR+/HER2- ABC using a mixed treatment comparison (MTC). Methods: A systematic literature review of Medline, EMBASE, Cochrane Library and key conferences (2013-2016) was performed to identify randomized clinical trials satisfying the following criteria: 1) included women with HR+/HER2- ABC, 2) included ET monotherapy and ET+TT combination arms, 3) reported PFS, ORR or CBR, and 4) was published in 2007 or later (when HER2 testing was standardized). Pairwise hazard ratios (HRs), relative risks (RR) and their corresponding 95% credible intervals (CrIs) were obtained via a Bayesian MTC. Efficacy was studied in first-line and aromatase inhibitor (AI)-failure (included patients who previously failed an AI or chemotherapy as first-line therapy) settings separately. ETs included letrozole, fulvestrant and exemestane, while ribociclib, palbociclib and everolimus were the TTs identified. Results: Three trials were eligible in the first setting for all three outcomes. TT+ET had significantly longer PFS vs. ET (HR = 0.56, 95% CrI 0.48-0.65), and also had significantly higher ORR (RR = 1.34, 1.17-1.51) and CBR vs. ET (RR = 1.17, 1.12-1.23). In the AI-failure setting, three trials were eligible for PFS, two for ORR, and none for CBR. TT+ET significantly improved PFS vs. ET (HR = 0.47, 0.41-0.53) and had significantly higher ORR vs. ET (RR = 3.52, 2.26-5.39). Conclusions: These results consistently indicate that the hazard of progression or death was approximately halved and that overall response and clinical benefit rates were significantly improved across patient settings for patients receiving TT+ET relative to ET monotherapy among postmenopausal women with HR+/HER2- ABC women.

Predicting Subnational Ebola Virus Disease Epidemic Dynamics from Sociodemographic Indicators

Background

The recent Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in West Africa has spread wider than any previous human EVD epidemic. While individual-level risk factors that contribute to the spread of EVD have been studied, the population-level attributes of subnational regions associated with outbreak severity have not yet been considered.

Methods

To investigate the area-level predictors of EVD dynamics, we integrated time series data on cumulative reported cases of EVD from the World Health Organization and covariate data from the Demographic and Health Surveys. We first estimated the early growth rates of epidemics in each second-level administrative district (ADM2) in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia using exponential, logistic and polynomial growth models. We then evaluated how these growth rates, as well as epidemic size within ADM2s, were ecologically associated with several demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the ADM2, using bivariate correlations and multivariable regression models.

Results

The polynomial growth model appeared to best fit the ADM2 epidemic curves, displaying the lowest residual standard error. Each outcome was associated with various regional characteristics in bivariate models, however in stepwise multivariable models only mean education levels were consistently associated with a worse local epidemic.

Discussion

By combining two common methods—estimation of epidemic parameters using mathematical models, and estimation of associations using ecological regression models—we identified some factors predicting rapid and severe EVD epidemics in West African subnational regions. While care should be taken interpreting such results as anything more than correlational, we suggest that our approach of using data sources that were publicly available in advance of the epidemic or in real-time provides an analytic framework that may assist countries in understanding the dynamics of future outbreaks as they occur.

Modeling the role of healthcare access inequalities in epidemic outcomes

Urban areas, with large and dense populations, offer conditions that favor the emergence and spread of certain infectious diseases. One common feature of urban populations is the existence of large socioeconomic inequalities which are often mirrored by disparities in access to healthcare. Recent empirical evidence suggests that higher levels of socioeconomic inequalities are associated with worsened public health outcomes, including higher rates of sexually transmitted diseases (STD's) and lower life expectancy. However, the reasons for these associations are still speculative. Here we formulate a mathematical model to study the effect of healthcare disparities on the spread of an infectious disease that does not confer lasting immunity, such as is true of certain STD's. Using a simple epidemic model of a population divided into two groups that differ in their recovery rates due to different levels of access to healthcare, we find that both the basic reproductive number (R0) of the disease and its endemic prevalence are increasing functions of the disparity between the two groups, in agreement with empirical evidence. Unexpectedly, this can be true even when the fraction of the population with better access to healthcare is increased if this is offset by reduced access within the disadvantaged group. Extending our model to more than two groups with different levels of access to healthcare, we find that increasing the variance of recovery rates among groups, while keeping the mean recovery rate constant, also increases R0 and disease prevalence. In addition, we show that these conclusions are sensitive to how we quantify the inequalities in our model, underscoring the importance of basing analyses on appropriate measures of inequalities. These insights shed light on the possible impact that increasing levels of inequalities in healthcare access can have on epidemic outcomes, while offering plausible explanations for the observed empirical patterns.

Per capita incidence of sexually transmitted infections increases systematically with urban population size: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES

Rampant urbanisation rates across the globe demand that we improve our understanding of how infectious diseases spread in modern urban landscapes, where larger and more connected host populations enhance the thriving capacity of certain pathogens.

METHODS

A data-driven approach is employed to study the ability of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) to thrive in urban areas. The conduciveness of population size of urban areas and their socioeconomic characteristics are used as predictors of disease incidence, using confirmed-case data on STDs in the USA as a case study.

RESULTS

A superlinear relation between STD incidence and urban population size is found, even after controlling for various socioeconomic aspects, suggesting that doubling the population size of a city results in an expected increase in STD incidence larger than twofold, provided that all other socioeconomic aspects remain fixed. Additionally, the percentage of African-Americans, income inequalities, education and per capita income are found to have a significant impact on the incidence of each of the three STDs studied.

CONCLUSIONS

STDs disproportionately concentrate in larger cities. Hence, larger urban areas merit extra prevention and treatment efforts, especially in low-income and middle-income countries where urbanisation rates are higher.

A Generalized Entropy Measure of Within-Host Viral Diversity for Identifying Recent HIV-1 Infections

There is a need for incidence assays that accurately estimate HIV incidence based on cross-sectional specimens. Viral diversity-based assays have shown promises but are not particularly accurate. We hypothesize that certain viral genetic regions are more predictive of recent infection than others and aim to improve assay accuracy by using classification algorithms that focus on highly informative regions (HIRs).We analyzed HIV gag sequences from a cohort in Botswana. Forty-two subjects newly infected by HIV-1 Subtype C were followed through 500 days post-seroconversion. Using sliding window analysis, we screened for genetic regions within gag that best differentiate recent versus chronic infections. We used both nonparametric and parametric approaches to evaluate the discriminatory abilities of sequence regions. Segmented Shannon Entropy measures of HIRs were aggregated to develop generalized entropy measures to improve prediction of recency. Using logistic regression as the basis for our classification algorithm, we evaluated the predictive power of these novel biomarkers and compared them with recently reported viral diversity measures using area under the curve (AUC) analysis.Change of diversity over time varied across different sequence regions within gag. We identified the top 50% of the most informative regions by both nonparametric and parametric approaches. In both cases, HIRs were in more variable regions of gag and less likely in the p24 coding region. Entropy measures based on HIRs outperformed previously reported viral-diversity-based biomarkers. These methods are better suited for population-level estimation of HIV recency.The patterns of diversification of certain regions within the gag gene are more predictive of recency of infection than others. We expect this result to apply in other HIV genetic regions as well. Focusing on these informative regions, our generalized entropy measure of viral diversity demonstrates the potential for improving accuracy when identifying recent HIV-1 infections.

Estimating influenza attack rates in the United States using a participatory cohort

We considered how participatory syndromic surveillance data can be used to estimate influenza attack rates during the 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 seasons in the United States. Our inference is based on assessing the difference in the rates of self-reported influenza-like illness (ILI, defined as presence of fever and cough/sore throat) among the survey participants during periods of active vs. low influenza circulation as well as estimating the probability of self-reported ILI for influenza cases. Here, we combined Flu Near You data with additional sources (Hong Kong household studies of symptoms of influenza cases and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates of vaccine coverage and effectiveness) to estimate influenza attack rates. The estimated influenza attack rate for the early vaccinated Flu Near You members (vaccination reported by week 45) aged 20-64 between calendar weeks 47-12 was 14.7%(95% CI(5.9%,24.1%)) for the 2012-2013 season and 3.6%(-3.3%,10.3%) for the 2013-2014 season. The corresponding rates for the US population aged 20-64 were 30.5% (4.4%, 49.3%) in 2012-2013 and 7.1%(-5.1%, 32.5%) in 2013-2014. The attack rates in women and men were similar each season. Our findings demonstrate that participatory syndromic surveillance data can be used to gauge influenza attack rates during future influenza seasons.

Temporal variations in the effective reproduction number of the 2014 west Africa ebola outbreak

Background The rapidly evolving 2014 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in West Africa is the largest documented in history, both in terms of the number of people infected and in the geographic spread. The high morbidity and mortality have inspired response strategies to the outbreak at the individual, regional, and national levels. Methods to provide real-time assessment of changing transmission dynamics are critical to the understanding of how these adaptive intervention measures have affected the spread of the outbreak. Methods In this analysis, we use the time series of EVD cases in Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia up to September 8, 2014, and employ novel methodology to estimate how the rate of exponential rise of new cases has changed over the outbreak using piecewise fits of exponential curves to the outbreak data. Results We find that for Liberia and Guinea, the effective reproduction number rose, rather than fell, around the time that the outbreak spread to densely populated cities, and enforced quarantine was imposed on several regions in the countries; this may indicate that enforced quarantine may not be an effective control measure. Conclusions If effective control measures are not put in place, and the current rate of exponential rise of new cases continues, we predict 4400 new Ebola cases in West Africa during the last half of the month of September, with an upper 95% confidence level of 6800 new cases.

Utilizing syndromic surveillance data for estimating levels of influenza circulation

The availability of weekly Web-based participatory surveillance data on self-reported influenza-like illness (ILI), defined here as self-reported fever and cough/sore throat, over several influenza seasons allows for estimation of the incidence of influenza infection in population cohorts. We demonstrate this using syndromic data reported through the Influenzanet surveillance platform in the Netherlands. We used the 2011-2012 influenza season, a low-incidence season that began late, to assess the baseline rates of self-reported ILI during periods of low influenza circulation, and we used ILI rates above that baseline level from the 2012-1013 season, a major influenza season, to estimate influenza attack rates for that period. The latter conversion required estimates of age-specific probabilities of self-reported ILI given influenza (Flu) infection (P(ILI | Flu)), which were obtained from separate data (extracted from Hong Kong, China, household studies). For the 2012-2013 influenza season in the Netherlands, we estimated combined influenza A/B attack rates of 29.2% (95% credible interval (CI): 21.6, 37.9) among survey participants aged 20-49 years, 28.3% (95% CI: 20.7, 36.8) among participants aged 50-60 years, and 5.9% (95% CI: 0.4, 11.8) among participants aged ≥61 years. Estimates of influenza attack rates can be obtained in other settings using analogous, multiseason surveillance data on self-reported ILI together with separate, context-specific estimates of P(ILI | Flu).

Optimizing treatment regimes to hinder antiviral resistance in influenza across time scales

The large-scale use of antivirals during influenza pandemics poses a significant selection pressure for drug-resistant pathogens to emerge and spread in a population. This requires treatment strategies to minimize total infections as well as the emergence of resistance. Here we propose a mathematical model in which individuals infected with wild-type influenza, if treated, can develop de novo resistance and further spread the resistant pathogen. Our main purpose is to explore the impact of two important factors influencing treatment effectiveness: i) the relative transmissibility of the drug-resistant strain to wild-type, and ii) the frequency of de novo resistance. For the endemic scenario, we find a condition between these two parameters that indicates whether treatment regimes will be most beneficial at intermediate or more extreme values (e.g., the fraction of infected that are treated). Moreover, we present analytical expressions for effective treatment regimes and provide evidence of its applicability across a range of modeling scenarios: endemic behavior with deterministic homogeneous mixing, and single-epidemic behavior with deterministic homogeneous mixing and stochastic heterogeneous mixing. Therefore, our results provide insights for the control of drug-resistance in influenza across time scales.

Pathogen mutation modeled by competition between site and bond percolation

While disease propagation is a main focus of network science, its coevolution with treatment has yet to be studied in this framework. We present a mean-field and stochastic analysis of an epidemic model with antiviral administration and resistance development. We show how this model maps to a coevolutive competition between site and bond percolation featuring hysteresis and both second- and first-order phase transitions. The latter, whose existence on networks is a long-standing question, imply that a microscopic change in infection rate can lead to macroscopic jumps in expected epidemic size.