Assessing the performance of the family folder system for collecting community-based health information in Tigray Region, North Ethiopia: a capture-recapture study

OBJECTIVES

To assess completeness and accuracy of the family folder in terms of capturing community-level health data.

STUDY DESIGN

A capture-recapture method was applied in six randomly selected districts of Tigray Region, Ethiopia.

PARTICIPANTS

Child health data, abstracted from randomly selected 24 073 family folders from 99 health posts, were compared with similar data recaptured through household survey and routine health information made by these health posts.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Completeness and accuracy of the family folder data; and coverage selected child health indicators, respectively.

RESULTS

Demographic data captured by the family folders and household survey were highly concordant, concordance correlation for total population, women 15-49 years age and under 5-year child were 0.97 (95% CI 0.94 to 0.99, p<0.001), 0.73 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.88) and 0.91 (95% CI 0.85 to 0.96), respectively. However, the live births, child health service indicators and child health events were more erratically reported in the three data sources. The concordance correlation among the three sources, for live births and neonatal deaths was 0.094 (95% CI -0.232 to 0.420) and 0.092 (95% CI -0.230 to 0.423) respectively, and for the other parameters were close to 0.

CONCLUSION

The family folder system comprises a promising development. However, operational issues concerning the seamless capture and recording of events and merging community and facility data at the health centre level need improvement.

Mortality trends and access to care for cardiovascular diseases in Agincourt, rural South Africa: a mixed-methods analysis of verbal autopsy data

OBJECTIVES

Cardiovascular diseases are the second leading cause of mortality behind HIV/AIDS in South Africa. This study investigates cardiovascular disease mortality trends in rural South Africa over 20+ years and the associated barriers to accessing care, using verbal autopsy data.

DESIGN

A mixed-methods approach was used, combining descriptive analysis of mortality rates over time, by condition, sex and age group, quantitative analysis of circumstances of mortality (CoM) indicators and free text narratives of the final illness, and qualitative analysis of free texts.

SETTING

This study was done using verbal autopsy data from the Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System site in Agincourt, rural South Africa.

PARTICIPANTS

Deaths attributable to cardiovascular diseases (acute cardiac disease, stroke, renal failure and other unspecified cardiac disease) from 1993 to 2015 were extracted from verbal autopsy data.

RESULTS

Between 1993 and 2015, of 15 305 registered deaths over 1 851 449 person-years of follow-up, 1434 (9.4%) were attributable to cardiovascular disease, corresponding to a crude mortality rate of 0.77 per 1000 person-years. Cardiovascular disease mortality rate increased from 0.34 to 1.12 between 1993 and 2015. Stroke was the dominant cause of death, responsible for 41.0% (588/1434) of all cardiovascular deaths across all years. Cardiovascular disease mortality rate was significantly higher in women and increased with age. The main delays in access to care during the final illness were in seeking and receiving care. Qualitative free-text analysis highlighted delays not captured in the CoM, principally communication between the clinician and patient or family. Half of cases initially sought care outside a hospital setting (50.9%, 199/391).

CONCLUSIONS

The temporal increase in deaths due to cardiovascular disease highlights the need for greater prevention and management strategies for these conditions, particularly for the women. Strategies to improve seeking and receiving care during the final illness are needed.

Understanding non-communicable diseases: combining health surveillance with local knowledge to improve rural primary health care in South Africa

Background: NCDs are non-infectious, long-term conditions that account for 40 million deaths per annum. 87% of premature NCD mortality occurs in low- and middle-income countries.

Objective: The aims were:develop methods to provide integrated biosocial accounts of NCD mortality; and explore the practical utility of extended mortality data for the primary health care system.

Methods: We drew on data from research programmes in the study area. Data were analysed in three steps: [a]analysis of levels, causes and circumstances of NCD mortality [n = 4,166] from routine census updates including Verbal Autopsy and of qualitative data on lived experiences of NCDs in rural villages from participatory research; [b] identifying areas of convergence and divergence between the analyses; and [c]exploration of the practical relevance of the data drawing on engagements with health systems stakeholders.

Results: NCDs constituted a significant proportion of mortality in this setting [36%]. VA data revealed multiple barriers to access in end-of-life care. Many deaths were attributed to problems with resources and health systems [21%;19% respectively]. The qualitative research provided rich complementary detail on the processes through which risk originates, accumulates and is expressed in access to end-of-life care, related to chronic poverty and perceptions of poor quality care in clinics. The exploration of practical relevance revealed chronic under-funding for NCD services, and an acute need for robust, timely data on the NCD burden.

Conclusions: VA data allowed a significant burden of NCD mortality to be quantified and revealed barriers to access at and around the time of death. Qualitative research contextualised these barriers, providing explanations of how and why they exist and persist. Health systems analysis revealed shortages of resources allocated to NCDs and a need for robust research to provide locally relevant evidence to organise and deliver care. Pragmatic interdisciplinary and mixed method analysis provides relevant renditions of complex problems to inform more effective responses.

Collective reflections on the first cycle of a collaborative learning platform to strengthen rural primary healthcare in Mpumalanga, South Africa

BACKGROUND

Frontline managers and health service providers are constrained in many contexts from responding to community priorities due to organizational cultures focused on centrally defined outputs and targets. This paper presents an evaluation of the Verbal Autopsy with Participatory Action Research (VAPAR) programme-a collaborative learning platform embedded in the local health system in Mpumalanga, South Africa-for strengthening of rural primary healthcare (PHC) systems. The programme aims to address exclusion from access to health services by generating and acting on research evidence of practical, local relevance.

METHODS

Drawing on existing links in the provincial and national health systems and applying rapid, participatory evaluation techniques, we evaluated the first action-learning cycle of the VAPAR programme (2017-19). We collected data in three phases: (1) 10 individual interviews with programme stakeholders, including from government departments and parastatals, nongovernmental organizations and local communities; (2) an evaluative/exploratory workshop with provincial and district Department of Health managers; and (3) feedback and discussion of findings during an interactive workshop with national child health experts.

RESULTS

Individual programme stakeholders described early outcomes relating to effective research and stakeholder engagement, and organization and delivery of services, with potential further contributions to the establishment of an evidence base for local policy and planning, and improved health outcomes. These outcomes were verified with provincial managers. Provincial and national stakeholders identified the potential for VAPAR to support engagement between communities and health authorities for collective planning and implementation of services. Provincial stakeholders proposed that this could be achieved through a two-way integration, with VAPAR stakeholders participating in routine health planning and review activities and frontline health officials being involved in the VAPAR process. Findings were collated into a revised theory of change.

CONCLUSIONS

The VAPAR learning platform was regarded as a feasible, acceptable and relevant approach to facilitate cooperative learning and community participation in health systems. The evaluation provides support for a collaborative learning platform within routine health system processes and contributes to the limited evaluative evidence base on embedded health systems research.

The 2020 report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: responding to converging crises

For the Chinese, French, German, and Spanish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Building cooperative learning to address alcohol and other drug abuse in Mpumalanga, South Africa: a participatory action research process

Background: Alcohol and other drug (AOD) abuse is a major public health challenge disproportionately affecting marginalised communities. Involving communities in the development of responses can contribute to acceptable solutions.

Objectives: To: (1) document forms, processes, and contexts of engaging communities to nominate health concerns and generate new knowledge for action; (2) further build participation in the local health system by reflecting on and adapting the process.

Methods: PAR was progressed with 48 community stakeholders across three rural villages in the MRC/Wits Agincourt Health and Socio Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) in Mpumalanga, South Africa. A series of workshops explored community-nominated topics, systematised lived experience into shared accounts and considered actions to address problems identified. Photovoice was also used to generate visual evidence. Narrative and visual data were thematically analysed, situated within practice frameworks, and learning and adaption elicited.

Results: AOD abuse was identified as a topic of high priority. It was understood as an entrenched social problem with destructive effects. Biopsychosocial impacts were mapped and related to unemployment, poverty, stress, peer pressure, criminal activity, corruption, and a proliferating number of taverns. Integrated action agendas were developed focussed on demand, supply, and harm reduction underpinned by shared responsibility among community, state, and non-state actors. Community stakeholders appreciated systematising and sharing knowledge, taking active roles, developing new skills in planning and public speaking, and progressing shared accountability processes. Expectations required sensitive management, however.

Conclusion: There is significant willingness and capacity among community stakeholders to work in partnership with authorities to address priority health concerns. As a process, participation can help to raise and frame issues, which may help to better inform action and encourage shared responsibility. Broader understandings of participation require reference to, and ultimately transfer of power towards, those most directly affected, developing community voice as continuous processes within social and political environments.

Eco-epidemiological assessment of the COVID-19 epidemic in China, January-February 2020

Background: The outbreak of COVID-19 in China in early 2020 provides a rich data source for exploring the ecological determinants of this new infection, which may be of relevance as the pandemic develops.

Objectives: Assessing the spread of the COVID-19 across China, in relation to associations between cases and ecological factors including population density, temperature, solar radiation and precipitation.

Methods: Open-access COVID-19 case data include 18,069 geo-located cases in China during January and February 2020, which were mapped onto a 0.25° latitude/longitude grid together with population and weather data (temperature, solar radiation and precipitation). Of 15,539 grid cells, 559 (3.6%) contained at least one case, and these were used to construct a Poisson regression model of cell-weeks. Weather parameters were taken for the preceding week given the established 5–7 day incubation period for COVID-19. The dependent variable in the Poisson model was incident cases per cell-week and exposure was cell population, allowing for clustering of cells over weeks, to give incidence rate ratios.

Results: The overall COVID-19 incidence rate in cells with confirmed cases was 0.12 per 1,000. There was a single confirmed case in 113/559 (20.2%) of cells, while two grid cells recorded over 1,000 confirmed cases. Weekly means of maximum daily temperature varied from −28.0°C to 30.1°C, minimum daily temperature from −42.4°C to 23.0°C, maximum solar radiation from 0.04 to 2.74 MJm⁻² and total precipitation from 0 to 72.6 mm. Adjusted incidence rate ratios suggested brighter, warmer and drier conditions were associated with lower incidence.

Conclusion: Though not demonstrating cause and effect, there were appreciable associations between weather and COVID-19 incidence during the epidemic in China. This does not mean the pandemic will go away with summer weather but demonstrates the importance of using weather conditions in understanding and forecasting the spread of COVID-19.

Time-critical conditions: assessment of burden and access to care using verbal autopsy in Agincourt, South Africa

Background

Time-critical conditions (TCC) are estimated to cause substantial mortality in low and middle-income countries. However, quantification of deaths and identification of contributing factors to those deaths are challenging in settings with poor health records.

Aim

To use verbal autopsy (VA) data from the Agincourt health and sociodemographic surveillance system in rural South Africa to quantify the burden of deaths from TCC and to evaluate the barriers in seeking, reaching and receiving quality care for TCC leading to death.

Methodology

Deaths from 1993 to 2015 were analysed to identify causality from TCC. Deaths due to TCC were categorised as communicable, non-communicable, maternal, neonatal or injury-related. Proportion of deaths from TCC by age, sex, condition type and temporal trends was described. Deaths due to TCC from 2012 to 2015 were further examined by circumstances of mortality (CoM) indicators embedded in VA. Healthcare access, at illness onset and during the final day of life, as well as place of death, was extracted from free text summaries. Summaries were also analysed qualitatively using a Three Delays framework to identify barriers to healthcare.

Results

Of 15 305 deaths, 5885 (38.45%) were due to TCC. Non-communicable diseases were the most prevalent cause of death from TCC (2961/5885 cases, 50.31%). CoM indicators highlighted delays in a quarter of deaths due to TCC, most frequently in seeking care. The most common pattern of healthcare access was to die outwith a facility, having sought no healthcare (409/1324 cases, 30.89%). Issues in receipt of quality care were identified by qualitative analysis.

Conclusion

TCCs are responsible for a substantial burden of deaths in this rural South African population. Delays in seeking and receiving quality care were more prominent than those in reaching care, and thus further research and solution development should focus on healthcare-seeking behaviour and quality care provision.

Global burden of respiratory infections associated with seasonal influenza in children under 5 years in 2018: a systematic review and modelling study

BACKGROUND

Seasonal influenza virus is a common cause of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) in young children. In 2008, we estimated that 20 million influenza-virus-associated ALRI and 1 million influenza-virus-associated severe ALRI occurred in children under 5 years globally. Despite this substantial burden, only a few low-income and middle-income countries have adopted routine influenza vaccination policies for children and, where present, these have achieved only low or unknown levels of vaccine uptake. Moreover, the influenza burden might have changed due to the emergence and circulation of influenza A/H1N1pdm09. We aimed to incorporate new data to update estimates of the global number of cases, hospital admissions, and mortality from influenza-virus-associated respiratory infections in children under 5 years in 2018.

METHODS

We estimated the regional and global burden of influenza-associated respiratory infections in children under 5 years from a systematic review of 100 studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2018, and a further 57 high-quality unpublished studies. We adapted the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale to assess the risk of bias. We estimated incidence and hospitalisation rates of influenza-virus-associated respiratory infections by severity, case ascertainment, region, and age. We estimated in-hospital deaths from influenza virus ALRI by combining hospital admissions and in-hospital case-fatality ratios of influenza virus ALRI. We estimated the upper bound of influenza virus-associated ALRI deaths based on the number of in-hospital deaths, US paediatric influenza-associated death data, and population-based childhood all-cause pneumonia mortality data in six sites in low-income and lower-middle-income countries.

FINDINGS

In 2018, among children under 5 years globally, there were an estimated 109·5 million influenza virus episodes (uncertainty range [UR] 63·1-190·6), 10·1 million influenza-virus-associated ALRI cases (6·8-15·1); 870 000 influenza-virus-associated ALRI hospital admissions (543 000-1 415 000), 15 300 in-hospital deaths (5800-43 800), and up to 34 800 (13 200-97 200) overall influenza-virus-associated ALRI deaths. Influenza virus accounted for 7% of ALRI cases, 5% of ALRI hospital admissions, and 4% of ALRI deaths in children under 5 years. About 23% of the hospital admissions and 36% of the in-hospital deaths were in infants under 6 months. About 82% of the in-hospital deaths occurred in low-income and lower-middle-income countries.

INTERPRETATION

A large proportion of the influenza-associated burden occurs among young infants and in low-income and lower middle-income countries. Our findings provide new and important evidence for maternal and paediatric influenza immunisation, and should inform future immunisation policy particularly in low-income and middle-income countries.

FUNDING

WHO; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A comparison of all-cause and cause-specific mortality by household socioeconomic status across seven INDEPTH network health and demographic surveillance systems in sub-Saharan Africa

Background: Understanding socioeconomic disparities in all-cause and cause-specific mortality can help inform prevention and treatment strategies.

Objectives: To quantify cause-specific mortality rates by socioeconomic status across seven health and demographic surveillance systems (HDSS) in five countries (Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, and Nigeria) in the INDEPTH Network in sub-Saharan Africa.

Methods: We linked demographic residence data with household survey data containing living standards and education information we used to create a poverty index. Person-years lived and deaths between 2003 and 2016 (periods varied by HDSS) were stratified in each HDSS by age, sex, year, and number of deprivations on the poverty index (0–8). Causes of death were assigned to each death using the InterVA-4 model based on responses to verbal autopsy questionnaires. We estimated rate ratios between socioeconomic groups (2–4 and 5–8 deprivations on our poverty index compared to 0–2 deprivations) for specific causes of death and calculated life expectancy for the deprivation groups.

Results: Our pooled data contained almost 3.5 million person-years of observation and 25,038 deaths. All-cause mortality rates were higher among people in households with 5–8 deprivations on our poverty index compared to 0–2 deprivations, controlling for age, sex, and year (rate ratios ranged 1.42 to 2.06 across HDSS sites). The poorest group had consistently higher death rates in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions (rate ratios ranged 1.34–4.05) and for non-communicable diseases in several sites (1.14–1.93). The disparities in mortality between 5–8 deprivation groups and 0–2 deprivation groups led to lower life expectancy in the higher-deprivation groups by six years in all sites and more than 10 years in five sites.

Conclusions: We show large disparities in mortality on the basis of socioeconomic status across seven HDSS in sub-Saharan Africa due to disparities in communicable disease mortality and from non-communicable diseases in some sites. Life expectancy gaps between socioeconomic groups within sites were similar to the gaps between high-income and lower-middle-income countries. Prevention and treatment efforts can benefit from understanding subpopulations facing higher mortality from specific conditions.

Rethinking collaboration: developing a learning platform to address under-five mortality in Mpumalanga province, South Africa

Following 50 years of apartheid, South Africa introduced visionary health policy committing to the right to health as part of a primary health care (PHC) approach. Implementation is seriously challenged, however, in an often-dysfunctional health system with scarce resources and a complex burden of avoidable mortality persists. Our aim was to develop a process generating evidence of practical relevance on implementation processes among people excluded from access to health systems. Informed by health policy and systems research, we developed a collaborative learning platform in which we worked as co-researchers with health authorities in a rural province. This article reports on the process and insights brought by health systems stakeholders. Evidence gaps on under-five mortality were identified with a provincial Directorate after which we collected quantitative and qualitative data. We applied verbal autopsy to quantify levels, causes and circumstances of deaths and participatory action research to gain community perspectives on the problem and priorities for action. We then re-convened health systems stakeholders to analyse and interpret these data through which several systems issues were identified as contributory to under-five deaths: staff availability and performance; service organization and infrastructure; multiple parallel initiatives; and capacity to address social determinants. Recommendations were developed ranging from immediate low- and no-cost re-organization of services to those where responses from higher levels of the system or outside were required. The process was viewed as acceptable and relevant for an overburdened system operating 'in the dark' in the absence of local data. Institutional infrastructure for evidence-based decision-making does not exist in many health systems. We developed a process connecting research evidence on rural health priorities with the means for action and enabled new partnerships between communities, authorities and researchers. Further development is planned to understand potential in deliberative processes for rural PHC.

Correlation between noncommunicable disease mortality in people aged 30-69 years and those aged 70-89 years

Objective

To investigate whether the key metric for monitoring progress towards sustainable development goal target 3.4 that is measuring premature noncommunicable disease mortality (deaths among people aged 30–69 years), is ageist.

Methods

To examine the relationship between premature noncommunicable disease mortality and noncommunicable disease mortality in older people, a database of mortality rates for cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and diabetes in people aged 30 to 69 years and 70 to 89 years was compiled using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. The data covered 195 countries, six time-points and both sexes, giving 2340 instances. The World Health Organization’s (WHO’s) life-table method for the premature noncommunicable disease mortality metric was applied to the data.

Findings

There was a strong correlation between noncommunicable disease mortality patterns in the premature and older age groups, which suggests that measuring premature noncommunicable disease mortality is informative about such mortality in later life. Neither time nor geographical location had a substantial effect on this correlation. However, there were female-to-male differences in age-specific probabilities of death due to noncommunicable disease, implying that noncommunicable disease mortality should be assessed using a sex-disaggregated approach.

Conclusion

As the established WHO metric for premature noncommunicable disease mortality was predictive of noncommunicable disease mortality in older people, the metric should not be construed as ageist. Focusing resources on measuring premature noncommunicable disease mortality will be appropriate, particularly in settings without universal civil death registration. This approach should not prejudice the provision of health services throughout the life-course.

Social determinants of under-5 child health: A qualitative study in Wolkayit Woreda, Tigray Region, Ethiopia

Despite the significant reductions seen in under-5 child mortality in Ethiopia over the last two decades, more than 10,000 children still die each year in Tigray Region alone, of whom 75% die from preventable diseases. Using an equity lens, this study aimed to investigate the social determinants of child health in one particularly vulnerable district as a means of informing the health policy decision-making process. An exploratory qualitative study design was adopted, combining focus group discussions and qualitative interviews. Seven Focus Group Discussions with mothers of young children, and 21 qualitative interviews with health workers were conducted in Wolkayit district in May-June 2015. Data were subjected to thematic analysis. Mothers' knowledge regarding the major causes of child mortality appeared to be good, and they also knew about and trusted the available child health interventions. However, utilization and practice of these interventions was limited by a range of issues, including cultural factors, financial shortages, limited female autonomy on financial resources, seasonal mobility, and inaccessible or unaffordable health services. Our findings pointed to the importance of a multi-sectoral strategy to improve child health equity and reduce under-5 mortality in Wolkayit. Recommendations include further decentralizing child health services to local-level Health Posts, and increasing the number of Health Facilities based on local topography and living conditions.

'Water is life': developing community participation for clean water in rural South Africa

Background

South Africa is a semiarid country where 5 million people, mainly in rural areas, lack access to water. Despite legislative and policy commitments to the right to water, cooperative governance and public participation, many authorities lack the means to engage with and respond to community needs. The objectives were to develop local knowledge on health priorities in a rural province as part of a programme developing community evidence for policy and planning.

Methods

We engaged 24 participants across three villages in the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System and codesigned the study. This paper reports on lack of clean, safe water, which was nominated in one village (n=8 participants) and in which women of reproductive age were nominated as a group whose voices are excluded from attention to the issue. On this basis, additional participants were recruited (n=8). We then held a series of consensus-building workshops to develop accounts of the problem and actions to address it using Photovoice to document lived realities. Thematic analysis of narrative and visual data was performed.

Results

Repeated and prolonged periods when piped water is unavailable were reported, as was unreliable infrastructure, inadequate service delivery, empty reservoirs and poor supply exacerbated by droughts. Interconnected social, behavioural and health impacts were documented combined with lack of understanding, cooperation and trust between communities and authorities. There was unanimity among participants for taps in houses as an overarching goal and strategies to build an evidence base for planning and advocacy were developed.

Conclusion

In this setting, there is willingness among community stakeholders to improve water security and there are existing community assemblies to support this. Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance Systems provide important opportunities to routinely connect communities to resource management and service delivery. Developing learning platforms with government and non-government organisations may offer a means to enable more effective public participation in decentralised water governance.

External injuries, trauma and avoidable deaths in Agincourt, South Africa: a retrospective observational and qualitative study

OBJECTIVE

Injury burden is highest in low-income and middle-income countries. To reduce avoidable deaths, it is necessary to identify health system deficiencies preventing timely, quality care. We developed criteria to use verbal autopsy (VA) data to identify avoidable deaths and associated health system deficiencies.

SETTING

Agincourt, a rural Bushbuckridge municipality, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa.

PARTICIPANTS

Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System and healthcare providers (HCPs) from local hospitals.

METHODS

A literature review to explore definitions of avoidable deaths after trauma and barriers to access to care using the 'three delays framework' (seeking, reaching and receiving care) was performed. Based on these definitions, this study developed criteria, applicable for use with VA data, for identifying avoidable death and which of the three delays contributed to avoidable deaths. These criteria were then applied retrospectively to the VA-defined category external injury deaths (EIDs-a subset of which are trauma deaths) from 2012 to 2015. The findings were validated by external expert review. Key informant interviews (KIIs) with HCPs were performed to further explore delays to care.

RESULTS

Using VA data, avoidable death was defined with a focus on survivability, using level of consciousness at the scene and ability to seek care as indicators. Of 260 EIDs (189 trauma deaths), there were 104 (40%) avoidable EIDs and 78 (30%) avoidable trauma deaths (41% of trauma deaths). Delay in receiving care was the largest contributor to avoidable EIDs (61%) and trauma deaths (59%), followed by delay in seeking care (24% and 23%) and in reaching care (15% and 18%). KIIs revealed context-specific factors contributing to the third delay, including difficult referral systems.

CONCLUSIONS

A substantial proportion of EIDs and trauma deaths were avoidable, mainly occurring due to facility-based delays in care. Interventions, including strengthening referral networks, may substantially reduce trauma deaths.

"Every Newborn-INDEPTH" (EN-INDEPTH) study protocol for a randomised comparison of household survey modules for measuring stillbirths and neonatal deaths in five Health and Demographic Surveillance sites

BACKGROUND

Under-five and maternal mortality were halved in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) era, with slower reductions for 2.6 million neonatal deaths and 2.6 million stillbirths. The Every Newborn Action Plan aims to accelerate progress towards national targets, and includes an ambitious Measurement Improvement Roadmap. Population-based household surveys, notably Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys, are major sources of population-level data on child mortality in countries with weaker civil registration and vital statistics systems, where over two-thirds of global child deaths occur. To estimate neonatal/child mortality and pregnancy outcomes (stillbirths, miscarriages, birthweight, gestational age) the most common direct methods are: (1) the standard DHS-7 with Full Birth History with additional questions on pregnancy losses in the past 5 years (FBH+) or (2) a Full Pregnancy History (FPH). No direct comparison of these two methods has been undertaken, although descriptive analyses suggest that the FBH+ may underestimate mortality rates particularly for stillbirths.

METHODS

This is the protocol paper for the Every Newborn-INDEPTH study (INDEPTH Network, International Network for the Demographic Evaluation of Populations and their Health Every Newborn, Every Newborn Action Plan), aiming to undertake a randomised comparison of FBH+ and FPH to measure pregnancy outcomes in a household survey in five selected INDEPTH Network sites in Africa and South Asia (Bandim in urban and rural Guinea-Bissau; Dabat in Ethiopia; IgangaMayuge in Uganda; Kintampo in Ghana; Matlab in Bangladesh). The survey will reach >68 000 pregnancies to assess if there is ≥15% difference in stillbirth rates. Additional questions will capture birthweight, gestational age, birth/death certification, termination of pregnancy and fertility intentions. The World Bank's Survey Solutions platform will be tailored for data collection, including recording paradata to evaluate timing. A mixed methods assessment of barriers and enablers to reporting of pregnancy and adverse pregnancy outcomes will be undertaken.

CONCLUSIONS

This large-scale study is the first randomised comparison of these two methods to capture pregnancy outcomes. Results are expected to inform the evidence base for survey methodology, especially in DHS, regarding capture of stillbirths and other outcomes, notably neonatal deaths, abortions (spontaneous and induced), birthweight and gestational age. In addition, this study will inform strategies to improve health and demographic surveillance capture of neonatal/child mortality and pregnancy outcomes.

An integrated approach to processing WHO-2016 verbal autopsy data: the InterVA-5 model

BACKGROUND

Verbal autopsy is an increasingly important methodology for assigning causes to otherwise uncertified deaths, which amount to around 50% of global mortality and cause much uncertainty for health planning. The World Health Organization sets international standards for the structure of verbal autopsy interviews and for cause categories that can reasonably be derived from verbal autopsy data. In addition, computer models are needed to efficiently process large quantities of verbal autopsy interviews to assign causes of death in a standardised manner. Here, we present the InterVA-5 model, developed to align with the WHO-2016 verbal autopsy standard. This is a harmonising model that can process input data from WHO-2016, as well as earlier WHO-2012 and Tariff-2 formats, to generate standardised cause-specific mortality profiles for diverse contexts. The software development involved building on the earlier InterVA-4 model, and the expanded knowledge base required for InterVA-5 was informed by analyses from a training dataset drawn from the Population Health Metrics Research Collaboration verbal autopsy reference dataset, as well as expert input.

RESULTS

The new model was evaluated against a test dataset of 6130 cases from the Population Health Metrics Research Collaboration and 4009 cases from the Afghanistan National Mortality Survey dataset. Both of these sources contained around three quarters of the input items from the WHO-2016, WHO-2012 and Tariff-2 formats. Cause-specific mortality fractions across all applicable WHO cause categories were compared between causes assigned in participating tertiary hospitals and InterVA-5 in the test dataset, with concordance correlation coefficients of 0.92 for children and 0.86 for adults. The InterVA-5 model's capacity to handle different input formats was evaluated in the Afghanistan dataset, with concordance correlation coefficients of 0.97 and 0.96 between the WHO-2016 and the WHO-2012 format for children and adults respectively, and 0.92 and 0.87 between the WHO-2016 and the Tariff-2 format respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the inherent difficulties of determining "truth" in assigning cause of death, these findings suggest that the InterVA-5 model performs well and succeeds in harmonising across a range of input formats. As more primary data collected under WHO-2016 become available, it is likely that InterVA-5 will undergo minor re-versioning in the light of practical experience. The model is an important resource for measuring and evaluating cause-specific mortality globally.

The effects of maternal and child HIV infection on health equity in Tigray Region, Ethiopia, and the implications for the health system: a case-control study

Services that aim to prevent mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT) can simultaneously reduce the overall impact of HIV infection in a population while also improving maternal and child health outcomes. By taking a health equity perspective, this retrospective case control study aimed to compare the health status of under-5 children born to HIV-positive and HIV-negative mothers in Tigray Region, Ethiopia. Two hundred and thirteen HIV-positive women (cases), and 214 HIV-negative women (controls) participated through interviews regarding their oldest children. Of the children born to HIV-positive mothers, 24% had not been tested, and 17% of those who had been tested were HIV-positive themselves. Only 29% of the HIV-positive children were linked to an ART programme. Unexpectedly, exposed HIV-negative children had fewer reports of perceived poor health as compared to unexposed children. Over 90% of all the children, regardless of maternal HIV status, were breastfed and up-to-date with the recommended immunizations. The high rate of HIV infection among the babies of HIV-positive women along with their low rates of antiretroviral treatment raises serious concerns about the quality of outreach to pregnant women in Tigray Region, and of the follow-up for children who have been exposed to HIV via their mothers.

Enhancing the value of mortality data for health systems: adding Circumstances Of Mortality CATegories (COMCATs) to deaths investigated by verbal autopsy

Half of the world's deaths and their causes pass unrecorded by routine registration systems, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Verbal autopsy (VA) collects information on medical signs, symptoms and circumstances from witnesses of a death that is used to assign likely medical causes. To further contextualise information on mortality, understanding underlying determinants, such as logistics, barriers to service utilisation and health systems responses, is important for health planning. Adding systematic methods for categorising circumstantial determinants of death to conventional VA tools is therefore important. In this context, the World Health Organization (WHO) leads the development of international standards for VA, and added questions on the social and health systems circumstances of death in 2012. This paper introduces a pragmatic and scalable approach for assigning relevant Circumstances Of Mortality CATegories (COMCATs) within VA tools, and examines their consistency, reproducibility and plausibility for health policy making, as well as assessing additional effort and cost to the routine VA process. This innovative COMCAT model is integrated with InterVA-5 software (which processes WHO-2016 VA data), for assigning numeric likelihoods to six circumstantial categories for each death. VA data from 4,116 deaths in the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System in South Africa from 2012 to 2016 were used to demonstrate proof of principle for COMCATs. Lack of resources to access health care, poor recognition of diseases and inadequate health systems responses ranked highest among COMCATs in the demonstration dataset. COMCATs correlated plausibly with age, sex, causes of death and local knowledge of the demonstration population. The COMCAT approach appears to be plausible, feasible and enhances the functionality of routine VA to account for critical limiting circumstances at and around the time of death. It is a promising tool for evaluating progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals and the roll-out of Universal Health Coverage.

Are health and demographic surveillance system estimates sufficiently generalisable?

Sampling rules do not apply in a Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) that covers exhaustively a district-level population and is not meant to be representative of a national population. We highlight the advantages of HDSS data for causal analysis and identify in the literature the principles of conditional generalisation that best apply to HDSS. A probabilistic view on HDSS data is still justified by the need to model complex causal inference. Accounting for contextual knowledge, reducing omitted-variable bias, detailing order of events, and high statistical power brings credence to HDSS data. Generalisation of causal mechanisms identified in HDSS data is consolidated through systematic comparison and triangulation with national or international data.

Integrating community-based verbal autopsy into civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS): system-level considerations

Background: Reliable and representative cause of death (COD) statistics are essential to inform public health policy, respond to emerging health needs, and document progress towards Sustainable Development Goals. However, less than one-third of deaths worldwide are assigned a cause. Civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems in low- and lower-middle-income countries are failing to provide timely, complete and accurate vital statistics, and it will still be some time before they can provide physician-certified COD for every death.

Proposals: Verbal autopsy (VA) is a method to ascertain the probable COD and, although imperfect, it is the best alternative in the absence of medical certification. There is extensive experience with VA in research settings but only a few examples of its use on a large scale. Data collection using electronic questionnaires on mobile devices and computer algorithms to analyse responses and estimate probable COD have increased the potential for VA to be routinely applied in CRVS systems. However, a number of CRVS and health system integration issues should be considered in planning, piloting and implementing a system-wide intervention such as VA. These include addressing the multiplicity of stakeholders and sub-systems involved, integration with existing CRVS work processes and information flows, linking VA results to civil registration records, information technology requirements and data quality assurance.

Conclusions: Integrating VA within CRVS systems is not simply a technical undertaking. It will have profound system-wide effects that should be carefully considered when planning for an effective implementation. This paper identifies and discusses the major system-level issues and emerging practices, provides a planning checklist of system-level considerations and proposes an overview for how VA can be integrated into routine CRVS systems.

The Design of Computer Forms for Tropical Medical Research

The design of forms for recording medical research data in the field is discussed in the light of the computer hardware and software to be used for their subsequent analysis. In particular, the principles of relational database management systems are extrapolated to the structure of forms. Specific issues of subject identification, layout of forms, different types of data and coding methods are developed. Finally, the special problems of applying these principles in the tropics, and experiences of so doing, are considered.

On-line Tropical Epidemiology -A Case-Study from The Gambia

This paper reports on a computerised approach to the management of an epidemiological field trial, which aimed at determining the effects of insecticide-impregnated bed nets on the incidence of malaria in children. The development of a data system satisfying the requirements of the project and its implementation using a database management system are discussed. The advantages of this method of management in terms of rapid processing of and access to data from the study are described, together with the completion rates and error rates observed in data collection.

Tropical Epidemiology: A System for Continuous Demographic Monitoring of a Study Population

Epidemiologists in many developing countries, where official demographic services are unavailable, have to include some demographic functions in their work. The usual method of documenting a study population for epidemiological research in a developing country consists of three stages: mapping, enumeration and vital registration. This paper considers the last element of this process, detailing the development of a suitable data system and explaining how its implementation using microcomputers and a database management system can help in the creation of an on-line continuous vital registration system for a study population as an epidemiological tool. The issues covered are data collection, entry and analysis, and the advantages of such a system for use in epidemiological research in developing countries are also discussed.

Community perspectives on HIV, violence and health surveillance in rural South Africa: a participatory pilot study

BACKGROUND

South Africa faces a complex burden of disease consisting of infectious and non-communicable conditions, injury and interpersonal violence, and maternal and child mortality. Inequalities in income and opportunity push disease burdens towards vulnerable populations, a situation to which the health system struggles to respond. There is an urgent need for health planning to account for the needs of marginalized groups in this context. The study objectives were to develop a process to elicit the perspectives of local communities in the established Agincourt health and socio-demographic surveillance site (HDSS) in rural north-east South Africa on two leading causes of death: HIV/AIDS and violent assault, and on health surveillance as a means to generate information on health in the locality.

METHODS

Drawing on community-based participatory research (CBPR) methods, three village-based groups of eight participants were convened, with whom a series of discussions were held to identify and define the causes of, treatments for, and problems surrounding, deaths due to HIV/AIDS and violent assault. The surveillance system was also discussed and recommendations generated. The discussion narratives were the main data source, examined using framework analysis.

RESULTS

The groups identified a range of social and health systems issues including risky sexual health behaviors, entrenched traditional practices, alcohol and substance abuse, unstable relationships, and debt as causative. Participants also explained how compromised patient confidentiality in clinics, insensitive staff, and a biased judicial system were problematic for the treatment and reporting of both conditions. Views on health surveillance were positive. Recommendations to strengthen an already well-functioning system related to maintaining confidentiality and sensitivity, and extending ancillary care obligations.

CONCLUSION

The discussions provided information not available from other sources on the social and health systems processes through which access to good quality health care is constrained in this setting. On this basis, further CBPR in routine HDSS to extend partnerships between researchers, communities and health authorities to connect evidence with the means for action is underway.

Can innovative ambulance transport avert pregnancy-related deaths? One-year operational assessment in Ethiopia

Background

To maximise the potential benefits of maternity care services, pregnant women need to be able to physically get to health facilities in a timely manner. In most of sub–Saharan Africa, transport represents a major practical barrier. Here we evaluate the extent to which an innovative national ambulance service in Ethiopia, together with mobile phones, may have been successful in averting pregnancy–related deaths.

Methods

An operational assessment of pregnancy–related deaths in relation to utilisation of the new national ambulance service was undertaken in six randomly selected Districts in northern Ethiopia. All 183 286 households in the six randomly selected Districts were visited to identify live–births and deaths among women of reproductive age that occurred over a one–year period. The uptake of the new ambulance transport service for women’s deliveries in the same six randomly selected Districts over the same period was determined retrospectively from ambulance log books. Pregnancy–related deaths as determined by the World Health Organization (WHO 2012) verbal autopsy tool [13] and the InterVA–4 model [14] were analysed against ambulance utilisation by District, month, local area, distance from health facility and mobile network coverage.

Findings

A total of 51 pregnancy–related deaths and 19 179 live–births were documented. Pregnancy–related mortality for Districts with above average ambulance utilisation was 149 per 100 000 live–births (95% confidence interval CI 77–260), compared with 350 per 100 000 (95% CI 249–479) for below average utilisation (P = 0.01). Distance to a health facility, mobile network availability and ambulance utilisation were all significantly associated with pregnancy–related mortality on a bivariable basis. On a multivariable basis, ambulance non–utilisation uniquely persisted as a significant determinant of mortality (mortality rate ratio 1.97, 95% CI 1.05–3.69; P = 0.03).

Conclusions

The uptake of freely available transport in connection with women’s obstetric needs correlated with substantially reduced pregnancy–related mortality in this operational assessment, though the design did not allow cause and effect to be attributed. However, the halving of pregnancy–related mortality associated with ambulance uptake in the sampled Districts suggests that the provision of transport to delivery facilities in Africa may be a key innovation for delivering maternal health care, which requires wider consideration.

The WHO 2016 verbal autopsy instrument: An international standard suitable for automated analysis by InterVA, InSilicoVA, and Tariff 2.0

BACKGROUND

Verbal autopsy (VA) is a practical method for determining probable causes of death at the population level in places where systems for medical certification of cause of death are weak. VA methods suitable for use in routine settings, such as civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems, have developed rapidly in the last decade. These developments have been part of a growing global momentum to strengthen CRVS systems in low-income countries. With this momentum have come pressure for continued research and development of VA methods and the need for a single standard VA instrument on which multiple automated diagnostic methods can be developed.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

In 2016, partners harmonized a WHO VA standard instrument that fully incorporates the indicators necessary to run currently available automated diagnostic algorithms. The WHO 2016 VA instrument, together with validated approaches to analyzing VA data, offers countries solutions to improving information about patterns of cause-specific mortality. This VA instrument offers the opportunity to harmonize the automated diagnostic algorithms in the future.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite all improvements in design and technology, VA is only recommended where medical certification of cause of death is not possible. The method can nevertheless provide sufficient information to guide public health priorities in communities in which physician certification of deaths is largely unavailable. The WHO 2016 VA instrument, together with validated approaches to analyzing VA data, offers countries solutions to improving information about patterns of cause-specific mortality.

Novel tools for the surveillance and control of dengue: findings by the DengueTools research consortium

BACKGROUND

Dengue fever persists as a major global disease burden, and may increase as a consequence of climate change. Along with other measures, research actions to improve diagnosis, surveillance, prevention, and predictive models are highly relevant. The European Commission funded the DengueTools consortium to lead a major initiative in these areas, and this review synthesises the outputs and findings of this work conducted from 2011 to 2016. Research areas: DengueTools organised its work into three research areas, namely [1] Early warning and surveillance systems; [2] Strategies to prevent dengue in children; and [3] Predictive models for the global spread of dengue. Research area 1 focused on case-studies undertaken in Sri Lanka, including developing laboratory-based sentinel surveillance, evaluating economic impact, identifying drivers of transmission intensity, evaluating outbreak prediction capacity and developing diagnostic capacity. Research area 2 addressed preventing dengue transmission in school children, with case-studies undertaken in Thailand. Insecticide-treated school uniforms represented an intriguing potential approach, with some encouraging results, but which were overshadowed by a lack of persistence of insecticide on the uniforms with repeated washing. Research area 3 evaluated potential global spread of dengue, particularly into dengue-naïve areas such as Europe. The role of international travel, changing boundaries of vectors, developing models of vectorial capacity under different climate change scenarios and strategies for vector control in outbreaks was all evaluated.

CONCLUDING REMARKS

DengueTools was able to make significant advances in methods for understanding and controlling dengue transmission in a range of settings. These will have implications for public health agendas to counteract dengue, including vaccination programmes.

OUTLOOK

Towards the end of the DengueTools project, Zika virus emerged as an unexpected epidemic in the central and southern America. Given the similarities between the dengue and Zika viruses, with vectors in common, some of the DengueTools thinking translated readily into the Zika situation.

What's coming for health science and policy in 2018? Global experts look ahead in their field

In PLOS Medicine's first editorial of 2018, editorial board members and other leading researchers share their hopes, pleas, concerns, and expectations for this year in health research and policy.

Variations in disability and quality of life with age and sex between eight lower income and middle-income countries: data from the INDEPTH WHO-SAGE collaboration

Background

Disability and quality of life are key outcomes for older people. Little is known about how these measures vary with age and gender across lower income and middle-income countries; such information is necessary to tailor health and social care policy to promote healthy ageing and minimise disability.

Methods

We analysed data from participants aged 50 years and over from health and demographic surveillance system sites of the International Network for the Demographic Evaluation of Populations and their Health Network in Ghana, Kenya, Tanzania, South Africa, Vietnam, India, Indonesia and Bangladesh, using an abbreviated version of the WHO Study on global AGEing survey instrument. We used the eight-item WHO Quality of Life (WHOQoL) tool to measure quality of life and theWHO Disability Assessment Schedule, version 2 (WHODAS-II) tool to measure disability. We collected selected health status measures via the survey instrument and collected demographic and socioeconomic data from linked surveillance site information. We performed regression analyses to quantify differences between countries in the relationship between age, gender and both quality of life and disability, and we used anchoring vignettes to account for differences in interpretation of disability severity.

Results

We included 43 935 individuals in the analysis. Mean age was 63.7 years (SD 9.7) and 24 434 (55.6%) were women. In unadjusted analyses across all countries, WHOQoL scores worsened by 0.13 points (95% CI 0.12 to 0.14) per year increase in age and WHODAS scores worsened by 0.60 points (95% CI 0.57 to 0.64). WHODAS-II and WHOQoL scores varied markedly between countries, as did the gradient of scores with increasing age. In regression analyses, differences were not fully explained by age, socioeconomic status, marital status, education or health factors. Differences in disability scores between countries were not explained by differences in anchoring vignette responses.

Conclusions

The relationship between age, sex and both disability and quality of life varies between countries. The findings may guide tailoring of interventions to individual country needs, although these associations require further study.

Introducing visual participatory methods to develop local knowledge on HIV in rural South Africa

INTRODUCTION

South Africa is a country faced with complex health and social inequalities, in which HIV/AIDS has had devastating impacts. The study aimed to gain insights into the perspectives of rural communities on HIV-related mortality.

METHODS

A participatory action research (PAR) process, inclusive of a visual participatory method (Photovoice), was initiated to elicit and organise local knowledge and to identify priorities for action in a rural subdistrict underpinned by the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS). We convened three village-based discussion groups, presented HDSS data on HIV-related mortality, elicited subjective perspectives on HIV/AIDS, systematised these into collective accounts and identified priorities for action. Framework analysis was performed on narrative and visual data, and practice theory was used to interpret the findings.

FINDINGS

A range of social and health systems factors were identified as causes and contributors of HIV mortality. These included alcohol use/abuse, gender inequalities, stigma around disclosure of HIV status, problems with informal care, poor sanitation, harmful traditional practices, delays in treatment, problems with medications and problematic staff-patient relationships. To address these issues, developing youth facilities in communities, improving employment opportunities, timely treatment and extending community outreach for health education and health promotion were identified.

DISCUSSION

Addressing social practices of blame, stigma and mistrust around HIV-related mortality may be a useful focus for policy and planning. Research that engages communities and authorities to coproduce evidence can capture these practices, improve communication and build trust.

CONCLUSION

Actions to reduce HIV should go beyond individual agency and structural forces to focus on how social practices embody these elements. Initiating PAR inclusive of visual methods can build shared understandings of disease burdens in social and health systems contexts. This can develop shared accountability and improve staff-patient relationships, which, over time, may address the issues identified, here related to stigma and blame.

Initiating a participatory action research process in the Agincourt health and socio-demographic surveillance site

BACKGROUND

Despite progressive health policy, disease burdens in South Africa remain patterned by deeply entrenched social inequalities. Accounting for the relationships between context, health and risk can provide important information for equitable service delivery. The aims of the research were to initiate a participatory research process with communities in a low income setting and produce evidence of practical relevance.

METHODS

We initiated a participatory action research (PAR) process in the Agincourt health and socio-demographic surveillance site (HDSS) in rural north-east South Africa. Three village-based discussion groups were convened and consulted about conditions to examine, one of which was under-5 mortality. A series of discussions followed in which routine HDSS data were presented and participants' subjective perspectives were elicited and systematized into collective forms of knowledge using ranking, diagramming and participatory photography. The process concluded with a priority setting exercise. Visual and narrative data were thematically analyzed to complement the participants' analysis.

RESULTS

A range of social and structural root causes of under-5 mortality were identified: poverty, unemployment, inadequate housing, unsafe environments and shortages of clean water. Despite these constraints, single mothers were often viewed as negligent. A series of mid-level contributory factors in clinics were also identified: overcrowding, poor staffing, delays in treatment and shortages of medications. In a similar sense, pronounced blame and negativity were directed toward clinic nurses in spite of the systems constraints identified. Actions to address these issues were prioritized as: expanding clinics, improving accountability and responsiveness of health workers, improving employment, providing clean water, and expanding community engagement for health promotion.

CONCLUSIONS

We initiated a PAR process to gain local knowledge and prioritize actions. The process was acceptable to those involved, and there was willingness and commitment to continue. The study provided a basis from which to gain support to develop fuller forms of participatory research in this setting. The next steps are to build deeper involvement of participants in the process, expand to include the perspectives of those most marginalized, and engage in the health system at different levels to move toward an ongoing process of action and learning from action.

Strengthening capacity to research the social determinants of health in low- and middle-income countries: lessons from the INTREC programme

BACKGROUND

The INDEPTH Training & Research Centres of Excellence (INTREC) collaboration developed a training programme to strengthen social determinants of health (SDH) research in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). It was piloted among health- and demographic researchers from 9 countries in Africa and Asia. The programme followed a blended learning approach and was split into three consecutive teaching blocks over a 12-month period: 1) an online course of 7 video lectures and assignments on the theory of SDH research; 2) a 2-week qualitative and quantitative methods workshop; and 3) a 1-week data analysis workshop. This report aims to summarise the student evaluations of the pilot and to suggest key lessons for future approaches to strengthen SDH research capacity in LMICs.

METHODS

Semi-structured interviews and questionnaires with 24 students from 9 countries in Africa and Asia were used to evaluate each teaching block. Information was collected about the students' motivation and interest in studying SDH, any challenges they faced during the consecutive teaching blocks, and suggestions they had for future courses on SDH.

RESULTS

Of the 24 students who began the programme, 13 (54%) completed all training activities. The students recognised the need for such a course and its potential to improve their skills as health researchers. The main challenges with the online course were time management, prior knowledge and skills required to participate in the course, and the need to get feedback from teaching staff throughout the learning process. All students found the face-to-face workshops to be of high quality and value for their work, because they offered an opportunity to clarify SDH concepts taught during the online course and to gain practical research skills. After the final teaching block, students felt they had improved their data analysis skills and were better able to develop research proposals, scientific manuscripts, and policy briefs.

CONCLUSIONS

The INTREC programme has trained a promising cadre of health researchers who live and work in LMICs, which is an essential component of efforts to identify and reduce national and local level health inequities. Time management and technological issues were the greatest challenges, which can inform future attempts to strengthen research capacity on SDH.

The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change

The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change is an international, multidisciplinary research collaboration between academic institutions and practitioners across the world. It follows on from the work of the 2015 Lancet Commission, which concluded that the response to climate change could be "the greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century". The Lancet Countdown aims to track the health impacts of climate hazards; health resilience and adaptation; health co-benefits of climate change mitigation; economics and finance; and political and broader engagement. These focus areas form the five thematic working groups of the Lancet Countdown and represent different aspects of the complex association between health and climate change. These thematic groups will provide indicators for a global overview of health and climate change; national case studies highlighting countries leading the way or going against the trend; and engagement with a range of stakeholders. The Lancet Countdown ultimately aims to report annually on a series of indicators across these five working groups. This paper outlines the potential indicators and indicator domains to be tracked by the collaboration, with suggestions on the methodologies and datasets available to achieve this end. The proposed indicator domains require further refinement, and mark the beginning of an ongoing consultation process-from November, 2016 to early 2017-to develop these domains, identify key areas not currently covered, and change indicators where necessary. This collaboration will actively seek to engage with existing monitoring processes, such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals and WHO's climate and health country profiles. The indicators will also evolve over time through ongoing collaboration with experts and a range of stakeholders, and be dependent on the emergence of new evidence and knowledge. During the course of its work, the Lancet Countdown will adopt a collaborative and iterative process, which aims to complement existing initiatives, welcome engagement with new partners, and be open to developing new research projects on health and climate change.

Mitigating Diseases Transmitted by Aedes Mosquitoes: A Cluster-Randomised Trial of Permethrin-Impregnated School Uniforms

Background

Viral diseases transmitted via Aedes mosquitoes are on the rise, such as Zika, dengue, and chikungunya. Novel tools to mitigate Aedes mosquitoes-transmitted diseases are urgently needed. We tested whether commercially insecticide-impregnated school uniforms can reduce dengue incidence in school children.

Methods

We designed a cluster-randomised controlled trial in Thailand. The primary endpoint was laboratory-confirmed dengue infections. Secondary endpoints were school absenteeism; and impregnated uniforms’ 1-hour knock-down and 24 hour mosquito mortality as measured by standardised WHOPES bioassay cone tests at baseline and after repeated washing. Furthermore, entomological assessments inside classrooms and in outside areas of schools were conducted.

Results

We enrolled 1,811 pupils aged 6–17 from 5 intervention and 5 control schools. Paired serum samples were obtained from 1,655 pupils. In the control schools, 24/641 (3.7%) and in the intervention schools 33/1,014 (3.3%) students had evidence of new dengue infections during one school term (5 months). There was no significant difference in proportions of students having incident dengue infections between the intervention and control schools, with adjustment for clustering by school. WHOPES cone tests showed a 100% knock down and mortality of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes exposed to impregnated clothing at baseline and up to 4 washes, but this efficacy rapidly declined to below 20% after 20 washes, corresponding to a weekly reduction in knock-down and mosquito mortality by 4.7% and 4.4% respectively. Results of the entomological assessments showed that the mean number of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes caught inside the classrooms of the intervention schools was significantly reduced in the month following the introduction of the impregnated uniforms, compared to those collected in classrooms of the control schools (p = 0.04)

Conclusions

Entomological assessments showed that the intervention had some impact on the number of Aedes mosquitoes inside treatment schools immediately after impregnation and before insecticidal activity declined. However, there was no serological evidence of protection against dengue infections over the five months school term, best explained by the rapid washing-out of permethrin after 4 washes. If rapid washing-out of permethrin could be overcome by novel technological approaches, insecticide-treated clothes might become a potentially cost-effective and scalable intervention to protect against diseases transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes such as dengue, Zika, and chikungunya.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01563640

Viral diseases transmitted via Aedes mosquitoes are on the rise, such as Zika, dengue, and chikungunya. Novel tools to mitigate Aedes mosquitoes-transmitted diseases are urgently needed. We tested whether commercially available insecticide-impregnated school uniforms can reduce dengue incidence in school children. To test this hypothesis we designed a school based randomized controlled trial where we enrolled 1,811 school children aged 6–17. For study monitoring, we also measured the effect of the impregnated uniforms on the survival of Aedes mosquitoes based on a standard bioassay test called WHOPES cone test. Furthermore, we counted the number of Aedes mosquitoes in classrooms and outside areas of classrooms. In the control schools, 3.7% and in the intervention schools 3.3% of the students had evidence of new dengue infections during the 5 month long school term, which indicates that there was no protection against dengue infections despite the fact that the knockdown effect of the impregnated uniforms was very high in the laboratory. We also showed a significant reduction of Aedes mosquitoes in the classrooms of the intervention schools. So why did this not translate into clinical protection against dengue? We assume the reason was the rapid wash-out effect of permethrin. Despite the company’s claim that impregnated clothing would withstand up to 70 launderings, we found a rapid decline in permethrin efficacy already after 4 washes, with the efficacy to below 20% after 20 washes. If rapid washing-out of permethrin could be overcome by novel technological approaches, insecticide-treated clothes might become a potentially cost-effective and scalable intervention to protect against diseases transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes such as dengue, Zika, and chikungunya.