Spatio-temporal dynamics of rabies and habitat suitability of the common marmoset Callithrix jacchus in Brazil

Rabies transmitted by wildlife is now the main source of human rabies in the Americas. The common marmoset, Callithrix jacchus, is considered a reservoir of rabies causing sporadic and unpredictable human deaths in Brazil, but the extent of the spillover risk to humans remains unknown. In this study, we described the spatiotemporal dynamics of rabies affecting C. jacchus reported to Brazil’s Ministry of Health passive surveillance system between 2008 and 2020, and combined ecological niche modelling with C. jacchus occurrence data to predict its suitable habitat. Our results show that 67 outbreaks (91 cases) of rabies affecting C. jacchus were reported by 41 municipalities between January 2008 and October 2020, with a mean of 5 outbreaks/year [range: 1–14]. The maximum number of outbreaks and municipalities reporting cases occurred in 2018, coinciding with higher surveillance of primate deaths due to Yellow Fever. A mean of 3 [1–9] new municipalities reported outbreaks yearly, suggesting potential spatial expansions of the C. jacchus variant in northeastern Brazil and emerging rabies spillover from vampire bat Desmodus rotundus to C. jacchus in the north and south. Outbreaks were concentrated in the states of Ceará (72%) and Pernambuco (16%) up to 2012, but are now reported in Piauí since 2013, in Bahia since 2017 (D. rotundus’ antigenic variant, AgV3) and in Rio de Janeiro since 2019 (AgV3). Besides confirming suitable habitat for this primate in the northeast and the east coast of Brazil, our Maximum Entropy model also predicted suitable habitat on the north and the west states of the country but predicted low habitat suitability among inland municipalities of the Caatinga biome reporting rabies. Our findings revealed new areas reporting rabies infecting C. jacchus, highlighting the need to implement strategies limiting spillover to humans and to better understand the drivers of C. jacchus rabies dynamics.

Rabies virus is the deadliest virus affecting mammals. In Brazil, rabies transmitted by the common marmoset primate is emerging and causing unpredictable human deaths. This primate once endemic to the northeast of the country has now invaded regions in the south throughout human-mediated introductions. However, the dynamics of rabies in this primate and the extend of spillover risk to humans remain unknown. We found that outbreaks of rabies in this marmoset reported to the Ministry of Health are continuously reported in new areas, including three new states since 2012 and three states reporting rabies originated from the common vampire bat. We also showed that this primate has suitable habitat to invade other states in the north and west of Brazil. Preventive strategies should be implemented to limit further rabies spillover to humans in new areas.

Climatic suitability of the eastern paralysis tick, Ixodes holocyclus, and its likely geographic distribution in the year 2050

The eastern paralysis tick, Ixodes holocyclus is one of two ticks that cause potentially fatal tick paralysis in Australia, and yet information on the full extent of its present or potential future spatial distribution is not known. Occurrence data for this tick species collected over the past two decades, and gridded environmental variables at 1 km² resolution representing climate conditions, were used to derive correlative ecological niche models to predict the current and future potential distribution. Several hundreds of candidate models were constructed with varying combinations of model parameters, and the best-fitting model was chosen based on statistical significance, omission rate, and Akaike Information Criterion (AICc). The best-fitting model matches the currently known distribution but also extends through most of the coastal areas in the south, and up to the Kimbolton peninsula in Western Australia in the north. Highly suitable areas are present around south of Perth, extending towards Albany, Western Australia. Most areas in Tasmania, where the species is not currently present, are also highly suitable. Future spatial distribution of this tick in the year 2050 indicates moderate increase in climatic suitability from the present-day prediction but noticeably also moderate to low loss of climatically suitable areas elsewhere.

Diversity and seasonality of host-seeking ticks in a periurban environment in the Central Midwest (USA)

Between March 2014 and February 2017, host-seeking ticks were collected during the late spring and summer months seasonally, and as well as continually through all seasons from several sites in a periurban environment in Pittsburg, Kansas, located in the Central Midwestern United States. All three post-emergent life-stages of Amblyomma americanum, and the adults of three other ticks viz. Dermacentor variabilis, A. maculatum, and Ixodes scapularis were collected using the flagging method, and were taxonomically identified using morphological and molecular methods. A total of 15946 ticks were collected from these sites. A vast majority of the ticks collected over the three-year study period was A. americanum (79.01%). The three other species collected included D. variabilis (13.10%), A. maculatum (7.15%), and Ixodes scapularis (0.73%). More female ticks of each species were collected throughout the study period from all sites, and a unimodal activity period was noted for all four species. The diversity, composition, and phenology of these medically significant tick species are discussed.

Likely Geographic Distributional Shifts among Medically Important Tick Species and Tick-Associated Diseases under Climate Change in North America: A Review

Ticks rank high among arthropod vectors in terms of numbers of infectious agents that they transmit to humans, including Lyme disease, Rocky Mountain spotted fever, Colorado tick fever, human monocytic ehrlichiosis, tularemia, and human granulocytic anaplasmosis. Increasing temperature is suspected to affect tick biting rates and pathogen developmental rates, thereby potentially increasing risk for disease incidence. Tick distributions respond to climate change, but how their geographic ranges will shift in future decades and how those shifts may translate into changes in disease incidence remain unclear. In this study, we have assembled correlative ecological niche models for eight tick species of medical or veterinary importance in North America (Ixodes scapularis, I. pacificus, I. cookei, Dermacentor variabilis, D. andersoni, Amblyomma americanum, A. maculatum, and Rhipicephalus sanguineus), assessing the distributional potential of each under both present and future climatic conditions. Our goal was to assess whether and how species' distributions will likely shift in coming decades in response to climate change. We interpret these patterns in terms of likely implications for tick-associated diseases in North America.

Assessing the current and future potential geographic distribution of the American dog tick, Dermacentor variabilis (Say) (Acari: Ixodidae) in North America

The American dog tick, Dermacentor variabilis, is a veterinary- and medically- significant tick species that is known to transmit several diseases to animal and human hosts. The spatial distribution of this species in North America is not well understood, however; and knowledge of likely changes to its future geographic distribution owing to ongoing climate change is needed for proper public health planning and messaging. Two recent studies have evaluated these topics for D. variabilis; however, less-rigorous modeling approaches in those studies may have led to erroneous predictions. We evaluated the present and future distribution of this species using a correlative maximum entropy approach, using publicly available occurrence information. Future potential distributions were predicted under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios; RCP 4.5 for low-emissions and RCP 8.5 for high-emissions. Our results indicated a broader current distribution of this species in all directions relative to its currently known extent, and dramatic potential for westward and northward expansion of suitable areas under both climate change scenarios. Implications for disease ecology and public health are discussed.

Predicting the potential distribution of Amblyomma americanum (Acari: Ixodidae) infestation in New Zealand, using maximum entropy-based ecological niche modelling

Although currently exotic to New Zealand, the potential geographic distribution of Amblyomma americanum (L.), the lone star tick, was modelled using maximum entropy (MaxEnt). The MaxEnt model was calibrated across the native range of A. americanum in North America using present-day climatic conditions and occurrence data from museum collections. The resulting model was then projected onto New Zealand using both present-day and future climates modelled under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 (low) and RCP 8.5 (high). Three sets of WorldClim bioclimatic variables were chosen using the jackknife method and tested in MaxEnt using different combinations of model feature class functions and regularization multiplier values. The preferred model was selected based on partial receiver operating characteristic tests, the omission rate and the lowest Akaike information criterion. The final model had four bioclimatic variables, Annual Mean Temperature (BIO₁), Annual Precipitation (BIO₁₂), Precipitation Seasonality (BIO₁₅) and Precipitation of Driest Quarter (BIO₁₇), and the projected New Zealand distribution was broadly similar to that of Haemaphysalis longicornis Neumann, New Zealand's only livestock tick, but with a more extensive predicted suitability. The climate change predictions for the year 2050 under both low and high RCP scenarios projected only moderate increases in habitat suitability along the mountain valleys in the South Island. In conclusion, this analysis shows that given the opportunity and license A. americanum could and would successfully establish in New Zealand and could provide another vector for theileriosis organisms.

Bovine anaplasmosis herd prevalence and management practices as risk-factors associated with herd disease status

•

Bovine anaplasmosis has a wide distribution across the State of Kansas.

•

Several commonly promoted management practices associated with anaplasmosis were found to be associated with herd infection status.

•

Many commonly promoted management practices were found to not be associated with herd infection status.

Bovine anaplasmosis is a hemolytic disease of cattle caused by Anaplasma marginale which can cause anemia, adult mortality, abortion, and performance reduction. The objectives of this study were to estimate herd-level infection prevalence of bovine anaplasmosis in Kansas cow-calf herds and assess management practices associated with herd infection status. Licensed Kansas veterinarians were randomly selected and provided clientele to generate randomly selected participant herds. Blood samples were collected from 10 mature cows during processing of 925 herds between October 1, 2016 and March 1, 2017. A management survey was completed by 780 herd-owners. Sample status was determined by competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (cELISA); operations indicating vaccination for anaplasmosis were tested with A.marginale-specific polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Survey data underwent logistic regression analysis for calculation of odds ratios and confidence intervals. The herd-level prevalence was 52.5 % of cow-calf herds. Prevalence ranged from 19.1 % of herds in Western Kansas to 87.3 % of herds in Eastern Kansas. Vaccinated herds were more likely (OR = 2.38; CI = 1.16–4.85; p =  0.02) to be positive compared to non-vaccinated herds, and herds that utilized insecticide ear-tags were more likely to be positive (OR = 1.9; CI = 1.42–2.55; p < 0.01) compared to herds which do not. Operations that prescribe-burned 21–50 % and >50 % of their pastures were more likely to be test positive, OR = 5.74 (CI = 3 .14–10.51; p < 0.01) and OR = 4.78 (CI = 2.33–10.17; p < 0.01), respectively, than operations that prescribe-burned <20 % of their pastures. In summary, anaplasmosis is present across Kansas beef herds at varied prevalence levels and selected management practices were found to be associated with herd infection status.

Potential Spatial Distribution of the Newly Introduced Long-horned Tick, Haemaphysalis longicornis in North America

The North American distributional potential of the recently invaded tick, Haemaphysalis longicornis, was estimated using occurrence data from its geographic range in other parts of the world and relevant climatic data sets. Several hundred candidate models were built using a correlative maximum entropy approach, and best-fitting models were selected based on statistical significance, predictive ability, and complexity. The median of the best-fitting models indicates a broad potential distribution for this species, but restricted to three sectors—the southeastern United States, the Pacific Northwest, and central and southern Mexico.

Current and Future Distribution of the Lone Star Tick, Amblyomma americanum (L.) (Acari: Ixodidae) in North America

Acarological surveys in areas outside the currently believed leading edge of the distribution of lone star ticks (Amblyomma americanum), coupled with recent reports of their identification in previously uninvaded areas in the public health literature, suggest that this species is more broadly distributed in North America than currently understood. Therefore, we evaluated the potential geographic extent under present and future conditions using ecological niche modeling approach based on museum records available for this species at the Walter Reed Biosystematics Unit (WRBU). The median prediction of a best fitting model indicated that lone star ticks are currently likely to be present in broader regions across the Eastern Seaboard as well as in the Upper Midwest, where this species could be expanding its range. Further northward and westward expansion of these ticks can be expected as a result of ongoing climate change, under both low- and high-emissions scenarios.

Surveillance for Heartland and Bourbon Viruses in Eastern Kansas, June 2016

In June 2016, we continued surveillance for tick-borne viruses in eastern Kansas following upon a larger surveillance program initiated in 2015 in response to a fatal human case of Bourbon virus (BRBV) (Family Orthomyxoviridae: Genus Thogotovirus). In 4 d, we collected 14,193 ticks representing four species from four sites. Amblyomma americanum (L.) (Acari: Ixodidae) accounted for nearly all ticks collected (n = 14,116, 99.5%), and the only other species identified were Amblyomma maculatum Koch (Acari: Ixodidae), Dermacentor variabilis (Say) (Acari: Ixodidae) and Ixodes scapularis Say (Acari: Ixodidae). All ticks were tested for both BRBV and Heartland virus (Family Bunyaviridae: Genus Phlebovirus) in 964 pools. Five Heartland virus positive tick pools were detected and confirmed by real-time reverse transcription PCR (rRT-PCR), while all pools tested negative for BRBV. Each Heartland positive pool was composed of 25 A. americanum nymphs with positive pools collected at three different sites in Bourbon County. A. americanum is believed to be the primary vector of both Heartland and BRBVs to humans based upon multiple detections of virus in field-collected ticks, its abundance, and its aggressive feeding behavior on mammals including humans. However, it is possible that A. americanum encounters viremic vertebrate hosts of BRBV less frequently than viremic hosts of Heartland virus, or that BRBV is less efficiently passed among ticks by co-feeding, or less efficiently passed vertically from infected female ticks to their offspring resulting in lower field infection rates.

Surveillance for Tick-Borne Viruses Near the Location of a Fatal Human Case of Bourbon Virus (Family Orthomyxoviridae: Genus Thogotovirus) in Eastern Kansas, 2015

Bourbon virus (Family Orthomyxoviridae: Genus Thogotovirus) was first isolated from a human case-patient residing in Bourbon County, Kansas, who subsequently died. Before becoming ill in late spring of 2014, the patient reported several tick bites. In response, we initiated tick surveillance in Bourbon County and adjacent southern Linn County during spring and summer of 2015. We collected 20,639 host-seeking ticks representing four species from 12 sites. Amblyomma americanum (L.) (Acari: Ixodidae) and Dermacentor variabilis (Say) (Acari: Ixodidae) accounted for nearly all ticks collected (99.99%). Three tick pools, all composed of adult A. americanum ticks collected in Bourbon County, were virus positive. Two pools were Heartland virus (Family Bunyaviridae: Genus Phlebovirus) positive, and one was Bourbon virus positive. The Bourbon virus positive tick pool was composed of five adult females collected on a private recreational property on June 5. Detection of Bourbon virus in the abundant and aggressive human-biting tick A. americanum in Bourbon County supports the contention that A. americanum is a vector of Bourbon virus to humans. The current data combined with virus detections in Missouri suggest that Bourbon virus is transmitted to humans by A. americanum ticks, including both the nymphal and adult stages, that ticks of this species become infected as either larvae, nymphs or both, perhaps by feeding on viremic vertebrate hosts, by cofeeding with infected ticks, or both, and that Bourbon virus is transstadially transmitted. Multiple detections of Heartland virus and Bourbon virus in A. americanum ticks suggest that these viruses share important components of their transmission cycles.

The Geographic Distribution of Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) Revisited: The Importance of Assumptions About Error Balance

The black-legged tick, Ixodes scapularis Say, is the primary vector of Borrelia burgdorferi, a spirochete that causes Lyme disease, in eastern North America. Lyme disease risk has generally been considered to be focused in the Northeast and the northern Midwest in the United States, yet the distribution of the vector extends considerably more broadly. A recent analysis of the distribution of the species using ecological niche modeling approaches painted an odd biogeographic picture, in which the species is distributed in a "rimming" distribution across the northern Midwest and Northeast, and along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the eastern United States, but not broadly in the interior of eastern North America. Here, we reanalyze the situation for this species, and demonstrate that the distribution estimated in the previous study was a consequence of assumptions about relative weights applied to different error types. A more appropriate error weighting scheme for niche modeling analyses, in which omission error is prioritized over commission error, shows a simpler distribution, in which the species ranges continuously across eastern North America; this distributional pattern is supported by independent occurrence data from the eastern Great Plains, in Kansas. We discuss implications for public health planning and intervention across the region, as well as for developing effective and predictive maps of vector distributions and pathogen transmission risk.

Heterogeneous Associations of Ecological Attributes with Tick-Borne Rickettsial Pathogens in a Periurban Landscape

The variations in prevalence levels of two tick-borne rickettsial pathogens, Ehrlichia chaffeensis and Ehrlichia Ewingii, in a periurban environment were evaluated along with their ecological determinants. Tick life stage and sex, month of tick collection, landscape fragmentation, and ecological covariates specific to pasture and woodland sites were considered as explanatory covariates. Questing lone star ticks (Amblyomma americanum) were collected by flagging for an hour once every week during mid-April through mid-August in years 2013 and 2014. A total of 4357 adult and nymphal ticks (woodland = 2720 and pasture = 1637) were collected and assessed for pathogen prevalence by molecular methods. Female A. americanum ticks were more infected with E. chaffeensis than males or nymphs in woodland areas [♂ = 6.05%; ♀ = 12.0%; nymphs = 2.09%] and pastures [♂ = 8.05%; ♀ = 12.03%; nymphs = 3.33%], and the prevalence was influenced by edge density in the landscape. Higher E. ewingii infection was noted among female A. americanum ticks within woodland areas [♂ = 1.89%; ♀ = 2.14%; nymphs = 1.57%], but no such difference was evident in pastures [♂ = 1.03%; ♀ = 1.33%; nymphs = 1.12%]. Prevalence of E. ewingii was influenced by edge contrast index, and the percentage of pasture perimeter that was less than 20 meters from woodland areas. This study elucidates the complexity of tick-borne pathogen ecology and points to the need for further studies on the role of reservoir hosts, particularly that played by small vertebrates, which is not fully understood in the region.

Bayesian Spatiotemporal Pattern and Eco-climatological Drivers of Striped Skunk Rabies in the North Central Plains

Striped skunks are one of the most important terrestrial reservoirs of rabies virus in North America, and yet the prevalence of rabies among this host is only passively monitored and the disease among this host remains largely unmanaged. Oral vaccination campaigns have not efficiently targeted striped skunks, while periodic spillovers of striped skunk variant viruses to other animals, including some domestic animals, are routinely recorded. In this study we evaluated the spatial and spatio-temporal patterns of infection status among striped skunk cases submitted for rabies testing in the North Central Plains of US in a Bayesian hierarchical framework, and also evaluated potential eco-climatological drivers of such patterns. Two Bayesian hierarchical models were fitted to point-referenced striped skunk rabies cases [n = 656 (negative), and n = 310 (positive)] received at a leading rabies diagnostic facility between the years 2007-2013. The first model included only spatial and temporal terms and a second covariate model included additional covariates representing eco-climatic conditions within a 4 km(2) home-range area for striped skunks. The better performing covariate model indicated the presence of significant spatial and temporal trends in the dataset and identified higher amounts of land covered by low-intensity developed areas [Odds ratio (OR) = 3.41; 95% Bayesian Credible Intervals (CrI) = 2.08, 3.85], higher level of patch fragmentation (OR = 1.70; 95% CrI = 1.25, 2.89), and diurnal temperature range (OR = 0.54; 95% CrI = 0.27, 0.91) to be important drivers of striped skunk rabies incidence in the study area. Model validation statistics indicated satisfactory performance for both models; however, the covariate model fared better. The findings of this study are important in the context of rabies management among striped skunks in North America, and the relevance of physical and climatological factors as risk factors for skunk to human rabies transmission and the space-time patterns of striped skunk rabies are discussed.

Bayesian Space-Time Patterns and Climatic Determinants of Bovine Anaplasmosis

The space-time pattern and environmental drivers (land cover, climate) of bovine anaplasmosis in the Midwestern state of Kansas was retrospectively evaluated using Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal models and publicly available, remotely-sensed environmental covariate information. Cases of bovine anaplasmosis positively diagnosed at Kansas State Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory (n = 478) between years 2005–2013 were used to construct the models, which included random effects for space, time and space-time interaction effects with defined priors, and fixed-effect covariates selected a priori using an univariate screening procedure. The Bayesian posterior median and 95% credible intervals for the space-time interaction term in the best-fitting covariate model indicated a steady progression of bovine anaplasmosis over time and geographic area in the state. Posterior median estimates and 95% credible intervals derived for covariates in the final covariate model indicated land surface temperature (minimum), relative humidity and diurnal temperature range to be important risk factors for bovine anaplasmosis in the study. The model performance measured using the Area Under the Curve (AUC) value indicated a good performance for the covariate model (> 0.7). The relevance of climatological factors for bovine anaplasmosis is discussed.

Hierarchical Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Climatic and Socio-Economic Determinants of Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever

This study aims to examine the spatio-temporal dynamics of Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) prevalence in four contiguous states of Midwestern United States, and to determine the impact of environmental and socio-economic factors associated with this disease. Bayesian hierarchical models were used to quantify space and time only trends and spatio-temporal interaction effect in the case reports submitted to the state health departments in the region. Various socio-economic, environmental and climatic covariates screened a priori in a bivariate procedure were added to a main-effects Bayesian model in progressive steps to evaluate important drivers of RMSF space-time patterns in the region. Our results show a steady increase in RMSF incidence over the study period to newer geographic areas, and the posterior probabilities of county-specific trends indicate clustering of high risk counties in the central and southern parts of the study region. At the spatial scale of a county, the prevalence levels of RMSF is influenced by poverty status, average relative humidity, and average land surface temperature (>35°C) in the region, and the relevance of these factors in the context of climate-change impacts on tick-borne diseases are discussed.

Maximum Entropy-Based Ecological Niche Model and Bio-Climatic Determinants of Lone Star Tick (Amblyomma americanum) Niche

The potential distribution of Amblyomma americanum ticks in Kansas was modeled using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) approaches based on museum and field-collected species occurrence data. Various bioclimatic variables were used in the model as potentially influential factors affecting the A. americanum niche. Following reduction of dimensionality among predictor variables using principal components analysis, which revealed that the first two principal axes explain over 87% of the variance, the model indicated that suitable conditions for this medically important tick species cover a larger area in Kansas than currently believed. Soil moisture, temperature, and precipitation were highly correlated with the first two principal components and were influential factors in the A. americanum ecological niche. Assuming that the niche estimated in this study covers the occupied distribution, which needs to be further confirmed by systematic surveys, human exposure to this known disease vector may be considerably under-appreciated in the state.

Bayesian Geostatistical Analysis and Ecoclimatic Determinants of Corynebacterium pseudotuberculosis Infection among Horses

Kansas witnessed an unprecedented outbreak in Corynebacterium pseudotuberculosis infection among horses, a disease commonly referred to as pigeon fever during fall 2012. Bayesian geostatistical models were developed to identify key environmental and climatic risk factors associated with C. pseudotuberculosis infection in horses. Positive infection status among horses (cases) was determined by positive test results for characteristic abscess formation, positive bacterial culture on purulent material obtained from a lanced abscess (n = 82), or positive serologic evidence of exposure to organism (≥1:512)(n = 11). Horses negative for these tests (n = 172)(controls) were considered free of infection. Information pertaining to horse demographics and stabled location were obtained through review of medical records and/or contact with horse owners via telephone. Covariate information for environmental and climatic determinants were obtained from USDA (soil attributes), USGS (land use/land cover), and NASA MODIS and NASA Prediction of Worldwide Renewable Resources (climate). Candidate covariates were screened using univariate regression models followed by Bayesian geostatistical models with and without covariates. The best performing model indicated a protective effect for higher soil moisture content (OR = 0.53, 95% CrI = 0.25, 0.71), and detrimental effects for higher land surface temperature (≥35°C) (OR = 2.81, 95% CrI = 2.21, 3.85) and habitat fragmentation (OR = 1.31, 95% CrI = 1.27, 2.22) for C. pseudotuberculosis infection status in horses, while age, gender and breed had no effect. Preventative and ecoclimatic significance of these findings are discussed.

Geospatial Risk Factors of Canine American Trypanosomiasis (Chagas Disease) (42 Cases: 2000-2012)

American trypanosomiasis or Chagas disease caused by Trypanosoma cruzi affects many mammals, including humans and dogs, in all Latin American countries outside the Caribbean and increasingly also in the southern United States. Dogs are considered as reliable sentinels and have been identified as an important risk factor for the disease in humans in endemic countries. Factors that determine American trypanosomiasis in dogs may therefore have public health relevance. Associations of different environmental, locational, and pet owner socioeconomic conditions were evaluated retrospectively as potential risk factors for American trypanosomiasis status in dogs in a case-control study. Laboratory-confirmed cases received at the Texas A&M University Veterinary Medical Teaching Hospital between the years 2000 and 2012 and candidate risk factor variables extracted from publicly available environmental data and 2010 US Census Bureau were used. The sample included 42 dogs serologically positive and 82 dogs serologically negative determined by indirect immunofluorescent assay. The diagnostic titer was 1:160 (case). Univariate logistic regressions followed by stepwise multivariate logistic modeling were used for variable screening and to determine the strengths of variable associations with case status. Total Edge Contrast Index (odds ratio [OR] = 3.35, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.10, 3.62), residing in homes that had rural addresses (OR = 2.48, 95% CI 2.43, 2.53), total number of owner occupied housing units in a neighborhood with a householder who is Hispanic or Latino (OR = 1.66, 95% CI 1.04, 2.66), and the total number of housing units in a neighborhood that were built on or prior to year 1980 (OR = 2.22, 95% CI 1.94, 2.55) were identified as risk factors. Suitable awareness campaigns and future research that considers pet owner housing and socioeconomic circumstances are necessary for effective prevention and control of this disease among dogs.

Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis and geospatial risk factors of human monocytic ehrlichiosis

Variations in spatio-temporal patterns of Human Monocytic Ehrlichiosis (HME) infection in the state of Kansas, USA were examined and the relationship between HME relative risk and various environmental, climatic and socio-economic variables were evaluated. HME data used in the study was reported to the Kansas Department of Health and Environment between years 2005–2012, and geospatial variables representing the physical environment [National Land cover/Land use, NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)], climate [NASA MODIS, Prediction of Worldwide Renewable Energy (POWER)], and socio-economic conditions (US Census Bureau) were derived from publicly available sources. Following univariate screening of candidate variables using logistic regressions, two Bayesian hierarchical models were fit; a partial spatio-temporal model with random effects and a spatio-temporal interaction term, and a second model that included additional covariate terms. The best fitting model revealed that spatio-temporal autocorrelation in Kansas increased steadily from 2005–2012, and identified poverty status, relative humidity, and an interactive factor, ‘diurnal temperature range x mixed forest area’ as significant county-level risk factors for HME. The identification of significant spatio-temporal pattern and new risk factors are important in the context of HME prevention, for future research in the areas of ecology and evolution of HME, and as well as climate change impacts on tick-borne diseases.

Spatially heterogeneous land cover/land use and climatic risk factors of tick-borne feline cytauxzoonosis

BACKGROUND

Feline cytauxzoonosis is a highly fatal tick-borne disease caused by a hemoparasitic protozoan, Cytauxzoon felis. This disease is a leading cause of mortality for cats in the Midwestern United States, and no vaccine or effective treatment options exist. Prevention based on knowledge of risk factors is therefore vital. Associations of different environmental factors, including recent climate were evaluated as potential risk factors for cytauxzoonosis using Geographic Information Systems (GIS).

METHODS

There were 69 cases determined to be positive for cytauxzoonosis based upon positive identification of C. felis within blood film examinations, tissue impression smears, or histopathologic examination of tissues. Negative controls totaling 123 were selected from feline cases that had a history of fever, malaise, icterus, and anorexia but lack of C. felis within blood films, impression smears, or histopathologic examination of tissues. Additional criteria to rule out C. felis among controls were the presence of regenerative anemia, cytologic examination of blood marrow or lymph node aspirate, other causative agent diagnosed, or survival of 25 days or greater after testing. Potential environmental determinants were derived from publicly available sources, viz., US Department of Agriculture (soil attributes), US Geological Survey (land-cover/landscape, landscape metrics), and NASA (climate). Candidate variables were screened using univariate logistic models with a liberal p value (0.2), and associations with cytauxzoonosis were modeled using a global multivariate logistic model (p<0.05). Spatial heterogeneity among significant variables in the study region was modeled using a geographically weighted regression (GWR) approach.

RESULTS

Total Edge Contrast Index (TECI), grassland-coverage, humidity conditions recorded during the 9(th) week prior to case arrival, and an interaction variable, "diurnal temperature range × percent mixed forest area" were significant risk factors for cytauxzoonosis in the study region. TECI and grassland areas exhibited significant regional differences in their effects on cytauxzoonosis outcome, whereas others were uniform.

CONCLUSIONS

Land-cover areas favorable for tick habitats and climatic conditions that favor the tick life cycle are strong risk factors for feline cytauxzoonosis. Spatial heterogeneity and interaction effects between land-cover and climatic variables may reveal new information when evaluating risk factors for vector-borne diseases.

Spatial scale effects in environmental risk-factor modelling for diseases

Studies attempting to identify environmental risk factors for diseases can be seen to extract candidate variables from remotely sensed datasets, using a single buffer-zone surrounding locations from where disease status are recorded. A retrospective case-control study using canine leptospirosis data was conducted to verify the effects of changing buffer-zones (spatial extents) on the risk factors derived. The case-control study included 94 case dogs predominantly selected based on positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test for leptospires in urine, and 185 control dogs based on negative PCR. Land cover features from National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) and Kansas Gap Analysis Program (KS GAP) around geocoded addresses of cases/controls were extracted using multiple buffers at every 500 m up to 5,000 m, and multivariable logistic models were used to estimate the risk of different land cover variables to dogs. The types and statistical significance of risk factors identified changed with an increase in spatial extent in both datasets. Leptospirosis status in dogs was significantly associated with developed high-intensity areas in models that used variables extracted from spatial extents of 500-2000 m, developed medium-intensity areas beyond 2,000 m and up to 3,000 m, and evergreen forests beyond 3,500 m and up to 5,000 m in individual models in the NLCD. Significant associations were seen in urban areas in models that used variables extracted from spatial extents of 500-2,500 m and forest/woodland areas beyond 2,500 m and up to 5,000 m in individual models in Kansas gap analysis programme datasets. The use of ad hoc spatial extents can be misleading or wrong, and the determination of an appropriate spatial extent is critical when extracting environmental variables for studies. Potential work-arounds for this problem are discussed.

Environmental, climatic, and residential neighborhood determinants of feline tularemia

BACKGROUND

Tularemia, caused by a Gram-negative bacterium Francisella tularensis, is an occasional disease of cats in the midwestern United States and a public health concern due to its zoonotic potential. Different environmental, climatic, and pet-owner's housing and socioeconomic conditions were evaluated as potential risk factors for feline tularemia using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in a retrospective case-control study.

METHODS

The study included 46 cases identified as positive for tularemia based upon positive immunohistochemistry, isolation of F. tularensis using bacterial culture, and 4-fold or greater change in serum antibody titer for F. tularensis. Cats with a history of fever, malaise, icterus, and anorexia but no lesions characteristic of tularemia and/or negative immunohistochemistry, no isolation of bacteria in bacterial culture, and less than 4-fold raise in serum antibody titer for F. tularensis were treated as controls (n=93). Candidate geospatial variables from multiple thematic sources were analyzed for association with case status. Variables from National Land Cover Dataset, Soil Survey Geographic Database, US Census Bureau, and Daymet were extracted surrounding geocoded case-control household locations. Univariable screening of candidate variables followed by stepwise multivariable logistic modeling and odds ratios were used to identify strengths of variable associations and risk factors.

RESULTS

Living in a residence located in newly urbanized/suburban areas, residences surrounded by areas dominated by grassland vegetation, and mean vapor pressure conditions recorded during the 8(th) week prior to case arrival at the hospital are significant risk factors for feline tularemia.

CONCLUSIONS

Prevention strategies such as acaricide applications in residential backyards during spring and early summer periods and any behavior modifications suitable for cats that will prevent them from contracting infection from ticks or dead animals are necessary. Mean vapor pressure conditions recorded during the 8(th) week prior to case arrival at a diagnostic facility is a predictor for feline tularemia.