Bayesian Spatial Modeling of Diabetes and Hypertension: Results from the South Africa General Household Survey

Determining spatial links between disease risk and socio-demographic characteristics is vital in disease management and policymaking. However, data are subject to complexities caused by heterogeneity across host classes and space epidemic processes. This study aims to implement a spatially varying coefficient (SVC) model to account for non-stationarity in the effect of covariates. Using the South Africa general household survey, we study the provincial variation of people living with diabetes and hypertension risk through the SVC model. The people living with diabetes and hypertension risk are modeled using a logistic model that includes spatially unstructured and spatially structured random effects. Spatial smoothness priors for the spatially structured component are employed in modeling, namely, a Gaussian Markov random field (GMRF), a second-order random walk (RW2), and a conditional autoregressive (CAR) model. The SVC model is used to relax the stationarity assumption in which non-linear effects of age are captured through the RW2 and allow the mean effect to vary spatially using a CAR model. Results highlight a non-linear relationship between age and people living with diabetes and hypertension. The SVC models outperform the stationary models. The results suggest significant provincial differences, and the maps provided can guide policymakers in carefully exploiting the available resources for more cost-effective interventions.

Mapping Scientific Productivity Trends and Hotspots in Remdesivir Research Publications: A Bibliometric Study from 2016 to 2021

In response to global efforts to control and exterminate infectious diseases, this study aims to provide insight into the productivity of remdesivir research and highlight future directions. To achieve this, there is a need to summarize and curate evidence from the literature. As a result, this study carried out comprehensive scientific research to detect trends in published articles related to remdesivir using a bibliometric analysis. Keywords associated with remdesivir were used to access pertinent published articles using the Scopus database. A total of 5321 research documents were retrieved, primarily as novel research articles (n = 2440; 46%). The number of publications increased exponentially from 2020 up to the present. The papers published by the top 12 institutions focusing on remdesivir accounted for 25.69% of the overall number of articles. The USA ranked as the most productive country, with 906 documents (37.1%), equivalent to one-third of the global publications in this field. The most productive institution was Icahn School of Medicine, Mount Sinai, in the USA (103 publications). The New England Journal of Medicine was the most cited, with an h-index of 13. The publication of research on remdesivir has gained momentum in the past year. The importance of remdesivir suggests that it needs continued research to help global health organizations detect areas requiring instant action to implement suitable measures. Furthermore, this study offers evolving hotspots and valuable insights into the scientific advances in this field and provides scaling-up analysis and evidence diffusion on remdesivir.

Prevalence and associated risk factors for anaemia amongst pregnant women attending three antenatal clinics in Eswatini

BACKGROUND

 Anaemia is a global health problem affecting about a third of the world's population. In pregnancy, it is a public health concern with consequences for mothers and infants, including maternal death and infant mortality. In low-income countries (LICs), 25% indirect maternal mortality and 30% neonatal deaths are due to anaemia in pregnancy.

AIM

 This study aimed to determine the prevalence and risks associated with anaemia amongst pregnant women attending antenatal clinic (ANC) in three health facilities in Eswatini.

SETTING

 This study was conducted in three health facilities in Eswatini, namely Mankayane, Raleigh Fitkin Memorial (RFM) and Mbabane Hospital.

METHODS

 This cross-sectional study used non-probability sampling in three hospitals of Eswatini, to select 550 pregnant women, aged 15-49 years. Data were collected from January to March 2021, using face-to-face interviews with a structured questionnaire. Logistic regression was used for statistical analysis.

RESULTS

 A total of 550 pregnant women were included in the study. Anaemia prevalence amongst pregnant women was 43.1% with mild, moderate and severe cases of 21.3%; 21.1% and 0.7%, respectively. Prevalence was high amongst women aged 15-19 years (53.3%). Factors associated with anaemia included living in urban areas (odds ratio [OR]: 1.8; confidence interval [CI]: 1.19-2.72), having anaemia 6 months before pregnancy (OR: 4.64; CI: 1.15-18.71), and gestational age at first ANC: third trimester (OR = 10.42; CI: 4.27-25.4) and second trimester (OR: 1.62; CI: 1.02-2.60).

CONCLUSION

 Anaemia remains prevalent amongst pregnant women in Eswatini. A comprehensive anaemia prevention programme would be justified and could lower the country's burden of anaemia.

A Bibliometric Analysis of the Literature on Norovirus Disease from 1991-2021

Norovirus (NoV) is one of the oldest recognized diseases and the leading causal pathogen for acute gastroenteritis (AGE) worldwide. Though numerous studies have been reported on NoV disease, limited research has explored the publication trends in this area. As a result, the objective of this work was to fill the void by conducting a bibliometric study in publication trends on NoV studies as well as discovering the hotspots. The Web of Science central assemblage database was hunted for publications from 1991 to 2021 with “norovirus” in the heading. Microsoft Excel 2016, VOSviewer, R Bibliometrix, and Biblioshiny packages were deployed for the statistical analysis of published research articles. A total of 6021 published documents were identified in the Web of Science database for this thirty-year study period (1991–2021). The analyses disclosed that the Journal of Medical Virology was the leading journal in publications on norovirus studies with a total of 215 published articles, the Journal of Virology was the most cited document with 11,185 total citations. The United States of America (USA) has the most significant productivity in norovirus publications and is the leading country with the highest international collaboration. Analysis of top germane authors discovered that X. Jiang (135) and J. Vinje (119) were the two top relevant authors of norovirus publications. The commonly recognized funders were US and EU-based, with the US emerging as a top funder. This study reveals trends in scientific findings and academic collaborations and serves as a leading-edge model to reveal trends in global research in the field of norovirus research. This study points out the progress status and trends on NoV research. It can help researchers in the medical profession obtain a comprehensive understanding of the state of the art of NoV. It also has reference values for the research and application of the NoV visualization methods. Further, the research map on AGE obtained by our analysis is expected to help researchers efficiently and effectively explore the NoV field.

Prevalence, Pattern and Genetic Diversity of Rotaviruses among Children under 5 Years of Age with Acute Gastroenteritis in South Africa: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Rotavirus is the most significant cause of severe acute gastroenteritis among children under 5 years of age, worldwide. Sub-Saharan Africa particularly bears the brunt of the diarrheal deaths. A meta-analysis was conducted on 43 eligible studies published between 1982 and 2020 to estimate the pooled prevalence of rotavirus infection and changes in the main rotavirus strains circulating before and after vaccine introduction among under-five children in South Africa. The pooled national prevalence of rotavirus infection was estimated at 24% (95% CI: 21-27%) for the pre-vaccination period and decreased to 23% (95% CI: 21-25%) in the post-vaccination period. However, an increased number of cases was observed in the KwaZulu-Natal (21-28%) and Western Cape (18-24%) regions post-vaccination. The most dominant genotype combinations in the pre-vaccine era was G1P[8], followed by G2P[4], G3P[8], and G1P[6]. After vaccine introduction, a greater genotype diversity was observed, with G9P[8] emerging as the predominant genotype combination, followed by G2P[4], G12P[8], and G1P[8]. The introduction of the rotavirus vaccine was associated with a reduction in the burden of rotavirus-associated diarrhea in South Africa, although not without regional fluctuation. The observed changing patterns of genotype distribution highlights the need for ongoing surveillance to monitor the disease trend and to identify any potential effects associated with the dynamics of genotype changes on vaccine pressure/failure.

Potential SARS-COV preclinical (in vivo) compounds targeting COVID-19 main protease: a meta-analysis and molecular docking studies

BACKGROUND

Due to the migratory flow of infected people with severe acute respiratory syndrome virus (SARS COV-2), the number of confirmed cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is accelerating globally; preclinical evidence of antiviral agents that can combat this pandemic is still elusive. We identified published articles on SARS-COV efficacy experiments in which some selected compounds were used to test the reduction of the virus load in mice.

METHODS

A systematic search of articles was conducted in PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus. We then developed a combined model based on a systematic review, meta-analyses, and molecular docking studies to evaluate the effect size of preclinical studies of compounds that have been tested against SARS-COV. Because substantial heterogeneity was expected, random effect model meta-analyses were carried out to estimate the overall pooled disease's prevalence. All meta-analyses were performed with Stata version 15.0. Subgroup analyses on therapies were conducted as well. Molecular docking studies of the inhibitors in the active pocket of COVID-19 protease were also performed.

RESULTS

From all screened articles, six studies were appropriate for ultimate meta-analysis and systematic review. The residual amount of heterogeneity was high (τ2 =0.02; heterogeneity I2 =85.5 % with heterogeneity chi-square =103.57, a degree of freedom =15, and p <0.001). The overall random pooled prevalence of infected mice treated with the selected compounds was 78.1 % [95 % Confidence Interval (CI): 14.7-17.0 %]. Prophylactic has a significantly higher pooled prevalence than therapeutic, with 21.8 % (95 % CI: 16.4 % to 28.8 %). Our results indicated that most of the SARS-COV inhibitors analyzed were less effective in reducing the lung virus titer of SARS-COV infection in animal models. The findings from molecular docking studies also identified COVID-19 inhibitors that are good for optimization and drug development to fight against COVID-19 infection.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings from the review showed that studies on the preclinical compounds targeting SARS-COV and COVID-19 are limited. Furthermore, molecular docking studies and meta-analysis results substantiated three compounds, i.e., EIDD-2801, GS-5734, and amodiaquine. HIPPOKRATIA 2020, 24(3): 99-106.