Death by Robots? Automation and Working-Age Mortality in the United States

The decline of manufacturing employment is frequently invoked as a key cause of worsening U.S. population health trends, including rising mortality due to "deaths of despair." Increasing automation-the use of industrial robots to perform tasks previously done by human workers-is one structural force driving the decline of manufacturing jobs and wages. In this study, we examine the impact of automation on age- and sex-specific mortality. Using exogenous variation in automation to support causal inference, we find that increases in automation over the period 1993-2007 led to substantive increases in all-cause mortality for both men and women aged 45-54. Disaggregating by cause, we find evidence that automation is associated with increases in drug overdose deaths, suicide, homicide, and cardiovascular mortality, although patterns differ by age and sex. We further examine heterogeneity in effects by safety net program generosity, labor market policies, and the supply of prescription opioids.

Troponin to risk stratify patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome for computed tomography coronary angiography

Background

Patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome in whom myocardial infarction has been ruled-out are at risk of future adverse cardiac events. However, the optimal approach to risk stratify and investigate these patients is uncertain.

Methods

We performed a prospective cohort study of 250 patients presenting to the Emergency Department with suspected acute coronary syndrome and troponin concentrations below the sex-specific 99th centile (16 ng/L for women and 34 ng/L for men). Patients were recruited in a 2:1 fashion stratified by peak high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I concentration above and below the early rule-out threshold of 5 ng/L (167 patients with intermediate troponin concentrations between 5 ng/L and the sex-specific 99th centile threshold and 83 patients with troponin concentrations <5 ng/L). All patients underwent computed tomography coronary angiography after they were discharged from hospital.

Results

Overall, 37.6% (94/250) of patients had normal coronary arteries whilst 36.0% (90/250) and 26.4% (66/250) had non-obstructive and obstructive coronary artery disease, respectively. Patients with intermediate troponin concentrations were more likely to have coronary artery disease than those with troponin concentrations <5 ng/L (71.9% [120/167] versus 43.4% [36/83]; odds ratio 3.33 [95% confidence interval 1.92–5.78]). This association persisted irrespective of whether patients had anginal symptoms. Conversely, there was no difference in the prevalence of coronary artery disease between those with and without anginal symptoms (63.2% [67/106] and versus 61.8% [89/144]; odds ratio 0.92 [0.48–1.76]). The majority of patients found to have coronary artery disease did not have a prior diagnosis and were not on optimal preventative medical therapy prior to undergoing computed tomography coronary angiography (50.8% [61/120] and 61.0% [22/36], versus 61.7% [74/120] and 69.4% [25/36] in patients with intermediate versus low troponin concentrations, respectively).

Conclusions

In patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome who have myocardial infarction ruled out, those with intermediate cardiac troponin concentrations are three-times more likely to have coronary artery disease than those with low troponin concentrations. Conversely anginal symptoms did not discriminate between those with and without coronary artery disease. Further studies are required to determine if targeting computed tomography coronary angiography to those with intermediate cardiac troponin concentrations can improve the use of preventative medical therapies and clinical outcomes.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Foundation. Main funding source(s): The British Heart Foundation Odds ratio of coronary artery diseaseCumulative proportion with CAD

Structural racism, economic opportunity and racial health disparities: Evidence from U.S. counties

In this study, we introduce the 'racial opportunity gap' as a place-based measure of structural racism for use in population health research. We first detail constructing the opportunity gap using race-sex specific estimates of intergenerational economic mobility outcomes for a recent cohort. We then illustrate its utility in examining spatial variation in the racial mortality gap. First we demonstrate a correlation between the racial opportunity gap and the racial mortality gap across U.S. counties; where the gap in the adult earnings of black and white children born to families at the same income level is greater so, too, is the gap in mortality. Second, we show in a multivariable framework that the racial opportunity gap is associated with the racial mortality gap net of differences in the socioeconomic composition of the two groups. In so doing, we aim to provide population health researchers with a new empirical tool and analytic framework for examining the role of structural racism in generating racial health disparities.

Structural racism, economic opportunity and racial health disparities: Evidence from U.S. counties

In this study, we introduce the ‘racial opportunity gap’ as a place-based measure of structural racism for use in population health research. We first detail constructing the opportunity gap using race-sex specific estimates of intergenerational economic mobility outcomes for a recent cohort. We then illustrate its utility in examining spatial variation in the racial mortality gap. First we demonstrate a correlation between the racial opportunity gap and the racial mortality gap across U.S. counties; where the gap in the adult earnings of black and white children born to families at the same income level is greater so, too, is the gap in mortality. Second, we show in a multivariable framework that the racial opportunity gap is associated with the racial mortality gap net of differences in the socioeconomic composition of the two groups. In so doing, we aim to provide population health researchers with a new empirical tool and analytic framework for examining the role of structural racism in generating racial health disparities.

Short communication: Risk factors for sonographically detectable udder edema in overbagged cows at dairy shows

At dairy cow shows, the appearance of the udder is very important. To show cows at their best, udders are often presented in an overbagged state by extending milking intervals before the show. This practice represents an animal welfare issue because it is associated with behavior changes (e.g., excessive abduction and decreased eating time) and may affect the health of the animal. The aim of the current study was to determine the association between various parameters (e.g., milk yield, days in milk, milking procedures, or administration of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, steroids, or diuretics) and the sonographically detectable udder edema score. Data were collected from the show catalogs, by interviewing the exhibitors, by analyzing official veterinary treatment protocols and official milking data, via laboratory analysis of blood samples, and by sonographic examinations of the udders at the show. For sonographically detectable udder edema scoring, 3 scans were taken, 1 on each fore quarter and 1 incorporating both rear quarters at the level of the median suspensory ligament. For grading the scans, a scoring system of 4 grades (score 0 = no edema, 1 = slight edema, 2 = moderate edema, 3 = severe edema) was used. Data from 321 cows of different breeds were collected at 4 highly competitive Swiss dairy shows (shows A-D) between January and September 2017. To determine risk factors for sonographically detectable udder edema, data were analyzed with 2 different logistic regression models. In model 1, the odds ratios were 3.33 (milking intervals of ≥16 h vs. <14 h), 3.84 (show A vs. show C), and 7.39 (dairy breeds vs. dual-purpose breeds). Milking intervals of dairy breeds were significantly higher than those of dual-purpose breeds. In model 2, milking interval was the only significant risk factor with an odds ratio of 9.00 for milking intervals of ≥16 h. Only the milking intervals represented a relevant risk factor in both models; therefore, we concluded that the previously described sonographic udder edema scoring is a useful technique for detecting overbagged udders at dairy shows. Its routine implementation may improve cow welfare at dairy shows.

Health Endowment at Birth and Variation in Intergenerational Economic Mobility: Evidence From U.S. County Birth Cohorts

New estimates of intergenerational economic mobility reveal substantial variation in the spatial distribution of opportunity in the United States. Efforts to explain this variation in economic mobility have conspicuously omitted health despite it being a key pathway for the transmission of economic position across generations. We begin to fill this gap in the literature by examining the relationship between health endowment at birth and intergenerational economic mobility across county birth cohorts in the United States, drawing on estimates from two population-level data sets. Exploiting variation across counties and over time, we find a negative relationship between the incidence of low-weight births and the level of economic mobility as measured in adulthood for the county birth cohorts in our sample. Our results build on a large and growing literature detailing the role of early childhood health in the transmission of economic status across generations and suggest that the incidence of low-weight births is negatively associated with intergenerational economic mobility.

An interdimensional correlation framework for real-time estimation of six degree of freedom target motion using a single x-ray imager during radiotherapy

Increasing evidence suggests that intrafraction tumour motion monitoring needs to include both 3D translations and 3D rotations. Presently, methods to estimate the rotation motion require the 3D translation of the target to be known first. However, ideally, translation and rotation should be estimated concurrently. We present the first method to directly estimate six-degree-of-freedom (6DoF) motion from the target's projection on a single rotating x-ray imager in real-time. This novel method is based on the linear correlations between the superior-inferior translations and the motion in the other five degrees-of-freedom. The accuracy of the method was evaluated in silico with 81 liver tumour motion traces from 19 patients with three implanted markers. The ground-truth motion was estimated using the current gold standard method where each marker's 3D position was first estimated using a Gaussian probability method, and the 6DoF motion was then estimated from the 3D positions using an iterative method. The 3D position of each marker was projected onto a gantry-mounted imager with an imaging rate of 11 Hz. After an initial 110° gantry rotation (200 images), a correlation model between the superior-inferior translations and the five other DoFs was built using a least square method. The correlation model was then updated after each subsequent frame to estimate 6DoF motion in real-time. The proposed algorithm had an accuracy (±precision) of  -0.03  ±  0.32 mm, -0.01  ±  0.13 mm and 0.03  ±  0.52 mm for translations in the left-right (LR), superior-inferior (SI) and anterior-posterior (AP) directions respectively; and, 0.07  ±  1.18°, 0.07  ±  1.00° and 0.06  ±  1.32° for rotations around the LR, SI and AP axes respectively on the dataset. The first method to directly estimate real-time 6DoF target motion from segmented marker positions on a 2D imager was devised. The algorithm was evaluated using 81 motion traces from 19 liver patients and was found to have sub-mm and sub-degree accuracy.

Health consequences of the US Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) immigration programme: a quasi-experimental study

BACKGROUND

The effects of changes in immigration policy on health outcomes among undocumented immigrants are not well known. We aimed to examine the physical and mental health effects of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) programme, a 2012 US immigration policy that provided renewable work permits and freedom from deportation for a large number of undocumented immigrants.

METHODS

We did a retrospective, quasi-experimental study using nationally representative, repeated cross-sectional data from the US National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) for the period January, 2008, to December, 2015. We included non-citizen, Hispanic adults aged 19-50 years in our analyses. We used a difference-in-differences strategy to compare changes in health outcomes among individuals who met key DACA eligibility criteria (based on age at immigration and at the time of policy implementation) before and after programme implementation versus changes in outcomes for individuals who did not meet these criteria. We additionally restricted the sample to individuals who had lived in the USA for at least 5 years and had completed high school or its equivalent, in order to hold fixed two other DACA eligibility criteria. Our primary outcomes were self-reported overall health (measured on a 5 point Likert scale) and psychological distress (Kessler 6 [K6] scale), the latter was administered to a random subset of NHIS respondents.

FINDINGS

Our final sample contained 14 973 respondents for the self-reported health outcome and 5035 respondents for the K6 outcome. Of these individuals, 3972 in the self-reported health analysis and 1138 in the K6 analysis met the DACA eligibility criteria. Compared with people ineligible for DACA, the introduction of DACA was associated with no significant change among DACA-eligible individuals in terms of self-reported overall health (b=0·056, 95% CI -0·024 to 0·14, p=0·17) or the likelihood of reporting poor or fair health (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0·98, 95% CI 0·66-1·44, p=0·91). However, DACA-eligible individuals experienced a reduction in K6 score compared with DACA-ineligible individuals (adjusted incident risk ratio 0·78, 95% CI 0·56-0·95, p=0·020) and were less likely to meet screening criteria for moderate or worse psychological distress (aOR 0·62, 95% CI 0·41-0·93, p=0·022).

INTERPRETATION

Economic opportunities and protection from deportation for undocumented immigrants, as offered by DACA, could confer large mental health benefits to such individuals. Health consequences should be considered by researchers and policy makers in evaluations of the broader welfare effects of immigration policy.

FUNDING

None.

Economic opportunity, health behaviours, and health outcomes in the USA: a population-based cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Inequality of opportunity, defined as differences in the prospects for upward social mobility, might have important consequences for health. Diminished opportunity can lower the motivation to invest in future health by reducing economic returns to health investments and undermining hope. We estimated the association between county-level economic opportunity and individual-level health in young adults in the general US population.

METHODS

In this population-based cross-sectional study, we used individual-level data from the 2009-12 United States Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Surveys. Our primary outcomes were current self-reported overall health and the number of days of poor physical and mental health in the last month. Economic opportunity was measured by the county-averaged national income rank attained by individuals born to families in the lowest income quartile. We restricted our sample to adults aged 25-35 years old to match the data used to assign exposure. Multivariable ordinary least squares and probit models were used to estimate the association between the outcomes and economic opportunity. We adjusted for a range of demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, including age, sex, race, education, income, access to health care, area income inequality, segregation, and social capital.

FINDINGS

We assessed nearly 147 000 individuals between the ages of 25 years and 35 years surveyed from 2009 to 2012. In models adjusting for individual-level demographics and county-level socioeconomic characteristics, increases in county-level economic opportunity were associated with greater self-reported overall health. An interdecile increase in economic opportunity was associated with 0·76 fewer days of poor mental health (95% CI -1·26 to -0·25) and 0·53 fewer days of poor physical health (-0·96 to -0·09) in the last month. The results were robust to sensitivity analyses.

INTERPRETATION

Economic opportunity is independently associated with self-reported health and health behaviours. Policies seeking to expand economic opportunities might have important spillover effects on health.

FUNDING

Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Health and Society Scholars Program.

A single prolonged milking interval of 24h compromises the well-being and health of dairy Holstein cows

Cows are often shown at dairy shows with overfilled udders to achieve a better show placing. However, it is unclear to what degree "over-bagging" affects the health and well-being of show cows. The goal of this study was to assess the effect of a single prolonged milking interval (PMI) of 24h on the measurable signs of health and well-being in dairy cows in early and mid-lactation and to assess the effect of a nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) on well-being during a PMI. Fifteen Holstein cows were studied in early lactation (89.5±2.7d in milk) and were given an NSAID or physiological saline in a crossover design. Ten cows were studied again in mid-lactation (151.6±4.0d in milk). Data on clinical signs of cows' health, behavior, and well-being were collected at 1 or 2h intervals before and during a PMI of 24h. Data from the last 6h of a 12h milking interval were compared with the last 6h of the PMI. Compared with that of a cow in the last 6h of a 12-h milking interval, the behavior of cows in early lactation (saline group) changed during the last 6h of the PMI: we observed decreased eating time (22.4 vs. 16.2min/h), increased ruminating time (13.3 vs. 25.0min/h), and increased hind limb abduction while walking (score 41.7 vs. 62.6) and standing (31.2 vs. 38.9cm). Udder firmness was increased (2.9 vs. 4.5kg) during this period and more weight was placed on the hind limbs (46.4 vs. 47.0%). We also found pathological signs at the end of the PMI: all cows showed milk leaking, and 10 of 15 cows developed edema in the subcutaneous udder tissue. Somatic cell count was significantly increased from 12h to 72h after the PMI. Administration of an NSAID had no influence on measured variables, except that the occurrence of edema was not significantly increased during PMI in the flunixin group (10 of 15 and 6 of 15 cows for the saline and flunixin groups, respectively). In the cows in mid-lactation, different variables were not significantly changed in the PMI compared with baseline values (e.g., eating and ruminating time, occurrence of edema, and abduction). We conclude that the cows' health and well-being were compromised by a single PMI of 24h, because their behavior changed and pathological signs were recorded. Administration of an NSAID had a slight effect on cows' well-being during a PMI. The stage of lactation had more effect on the cows' health and well-being, because fewer variables were changed in mid-lactation.

Low alanine aminotransferase levels and higher number of cardiovascular events in people with Type 2 diabetes: analysis of the Fenofibrate Intervention and Event Lowering in Diabetes (FIELD) study

AIMS

To determine whether alanine aminotransferase or gamma-glutamyltransferase levels, as markers of liver health and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, might predict cardiovascular events in people with Type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

Data from the Fenofibrate Intervention and Event Lowering in Diabetes study were analysed to examine the relationship between liver enzymes and incident cardiovascular events (non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary and other cardiovascular death, coronary or carotid revascularization) over 5 years.

RESULTS

Alanine aminotransferase measure had a linear inverse relationship with the first cardiovascular event occurring in participants during the study period. After adjustment, for every 1 sd higher baseline alanine aminotransferase measure (13.2 U/l), the risk of a cardiovascular event was 7% lower (95% CI 4-13; P = 0.02). Participants with alanine aminotransferase levels below and above the reference range 8-41 U/l for women and 9-59 U/l for men, had hazard ratios for a cardiovascular event of 1.86 (95% CI 1.12-3.09) and 0.65 (95% CI 0.49-0.87), respectively (P = 0.001). No relationship was found for gamma-glutamyltransferase.

CONCLUSIONS

The data may indicate that in people with Type 2 diabetes, which is associated with higher alanine aminotransferase levels because of prevalent non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, a low alanine aminotransferase level is a marker of hepatic or systemic frailty rather than health.

Attitudes towards involuntary incarceration for tuberculosis: a survey of Union members

BACKGROUND

Policies involving the use of involuntary incarceration for tuberculosis (TB) are highly ethically controversial. To encourage ethical reflection within the International Union Against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease (The Union), the Ethics Advisory Group (EAG) surveyed members regarding their attitudes and values relating to involuntary incarceration for TB.

METHODS

Members of the Union TB section were invited to respond to an anonymous web-based survey. The survey included both multiple choice questions describing a range of scenarios regarding involuntary incarceration, and free-text fields inviting respondents to provide general comments on ethical issues.

RESULTS

The survey was completed by 194 participants, 33 (17%) of whom were opposed to involuntary incarceration on principle. The age and sex of the respondents was not associated with likelihood of principled opposition; respondents from North America were least likely to be opposed to involuntary incarceration (P = 0.02). Respondents were most likely to consider involuntary incarceration for persons with known multidrug-resistant TB or a history of previous treatment default, and least likely where people lived alone, were university-educated or the main income provider for their families.

CONCLUSION

This survey found a wide range of viewpoints regarding involuntary incarceration, and highlights a number of key elements in ethical engagement with the tensions surrounding involuntary incarceration. We provide commentary on approaches to ethical policy making in the light of these findings.

Research ethics in The Union: an 8-year review of the Ethics Advisory Group

SETTING

The Ethics Advisory Group (EAG) of the International Union Against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease (The Union) was established in 2004 to provide ethical guidance and promote ethical standards within The Union, including reviews of proposed research projects associated with The Union.

OBJECTIVES

To describe research proposal reviews conducted by the EAG in the period 2005-2012 in terms of 1) annual numbers, 2) the Union departments in which the proposals originated, 3) study designs, 4) regions and countries where studies were to be conducted, 5) study topics, 6) problems encountered by the EAG, and 7) review outcomes.

DESIGN

Descriptive study of application records of the EAG.

RESULTS

A total of 292 applications were reviewed; 79% were proposals for operational research; 85% were from Africa and Asia, with 64% from India, South Africa, Malawi, Kenya and Zimbabwe. Tuberculosis was the topic in 68%; only three studies in the 8 years were on other lung diseases. Several problems encountered are highlighted. All applications were approved except six, either immediately or after modification.

CONCLUSION

The proposal review process of the EAG serves to maintain ethical standards of research within The Union. Ideas for expanding the scope of the EAG are discussed.

FBXW7 regulates glucocorticoid response in T-cell acute lymphoblastic leukaemia by targeting the glucocorticoid receptor for degradation

Loss of function mutation in FBXW7, an E3 ubiquitin ligase, is associated with good prognosis and early glucocorticoid treatment response in childhood T-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia (T-ALL) by unknown mechanisms. Here, we show that FBXW7 targets the glucocorticoid receptor α (GRα) for ubiquitylation and proteasomal degradation in a manner dependent on glycogen synthase kinase 3 β-mediated phsophorylation. FBXW7 inactivation caused elevated GRα levels, and enhanced the transcriptional response to glucocorticoids. There was significant enhancement of GR transcriptional responses in FBXW7-deficient cell lines and primary T-ALL samples, in particular, for those pro-apoptotic regulatory proteins, BIM and PUMA. Reduced FBXW7 expression or function promoted glucocorticoid sensitivity, but not sensitivity to other chemotherapeutic agents used in T-ALL. Moreover, this was a general feature of different cancer cell types. Taken together, our work defines GRα as a novel FBXW7 substrate and demonstrates that favorable patient prognosis in T-ALL is associated with FBXW7 mutations due to enhanced GRα levels and steroid sensitivity. These findings suggest that inactivation of FBXW7, a putative tumor suppressor protein, may create a synthetic lethal state in the presence of specific anticancer therapies.