Achievement of Target Gain Larger than Unity in an Inertial Fusion Experiment

On December 5, 2022, an indirect drive fusion implosion on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) achieved a target gain G_{target} of 1.5. This is the first laboratory demonstration of exceeding "scientific breakeven" (or G_{target}>1) where 2.05 MJ of 351 nm laser light produced 3.1 MJ of total fusion yield, a result which significantly exceeds the Lawson criterion for fusion ignition as reported in a previous NIF implosion [H. Abu-Shawareb et al. (Indirect Drive ICF Collaboration), Phys. Rev. Lett. 129, 075001 (2022)PRLTAO0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.129.075001]. This achievement is the culmination of more than five decades of research and gives proof that laboratory fusion, based on fundamental physics principles, is possible. This Letter reports on the target, laser, design, and experimental advancements that led to this result.

Cost-effectiveness of 20-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in US infants

BACKGROUND

As of June 2023, two pneumococcal conjugate vaccines, 20- (PCV20) and 15- (PCV15) valent formulations, are recommended for US infants under a 3 + 1 schedule. This study evaluated the health and economic impact of vaccinating US infants with a new expanded valency PCV20 formulation.

METHODS

A population-based, multi cohort, decision-analytic Markov model was developed to estimate the public health impact and cost-effectiveness of PCV20 from both societal and healthcare system perspectives over 10 years. Epidemiological data were based on published studies and unpublished Active Bacterial Core Surveillance System (ABCs) data. Vaccine effectiveness was based on PCV13 effectiveness and PCV7 efficacy studies. Indirect impact was based on observational studies. Costs and disutilities were based on published data. PCV20 was compared to both PCV13 and PCV15 in separate scenarios.

RESULTS

Replacing PCV13 with PCV20 in infants has the potential to avert over 55,000 invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) cases, 2.5 million pneumonia cases, 5.4 million otitis media (OM) cases, and 19,000 deaths across all ages over a 10-year time horizon, corresponding to net gains of 515,000 life years and 271,000 QALYs. Acquisition costs of PCV20 were offset by monetary savings from averted cases resulting in net savings of $20.6 billion. The same trend was observed when comparing PCV20 versus PCV15, with a net gain of 146,000 QALYs and $9.9 billion in net savings. A large proportion of the avoided costs and cases were attributable to indirect effects in unvaccinated adults and elderly. From a health-care perspective, PCV20 was also the dominant strategy compared to both PCV13 and PCV15.

CONCLUSIONS

Infant vaccination with PCV20 is estimated to further reduce pneumococcal disease and associated healthcare system and societal costs compared to both PCV13 and PCV15.

Cost-effectiveness and impact on infections and associated antimicrobial resistance of 20-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in US children previously immunized with PCV13

AIM

The US Food and Drug Administration approved the 20-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV20) to prevent pneumococcal disease. In the context of routine PCV20 vaccination, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness and public health and economic impact of a PCV20 catch-up program and estimated the number of antibiotic prescriptions and antibiotic-resistant infections averted.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A population-based, multi-cohort, decision-analytic Markov model was developed using parameters consistent with previous PCV20 cost-effectiveness analyses. In the intervention arm, children aged 14-59 months who previously completed PCV13 vaccination received a supplemental dose of PCV20. In the comparator arm, no catch-up PCV20 dose was given. The direct and indirect benefits of vaccination were captured over a 10-year time horizon.

RESULTS

A PCV20 catch-up program would prevent 5,469 invasive pneumococcal disease cases, 50,286 hospitalized pneumonia cases, 218,240 outpatient pneumonia cases, 582,302 otitis media cases, and 1,800 deaths, representing a net gain of 30,014 life years and 55,583 quality-adjusted life years. Furthermore, 720,938 antibiotic prescriptions and 256,889 antibiotic-resistant infections would be averted. A catch-up program would result in cost savings of $800 million. These results were robust to sensitivity and scenario analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

A PCV20 catch-up program could prevent pneumococcal infections, antibiotic prescriptions, and antimicrobial-resistant infections and would be cost-saving in the US.

Novices cannot fill the examiners' shoes: Evidence of footwear examiners' expertise in shoe comparisons

The value of a footwear examiner's opinion centres on their ability to determine whether a particular shoe made an impression with greater accuracy than a novice. However, there has been limited research on the expertise of footwear examiners and the accuracy and reproducibility of their decisions. In the current study, we measured the accuracy and consensus of 31 footwear examiners versus a comparison group of 29 novices. Participants completed 20 ground truth known mock shoe comparisons. Results demonstrated that footwear examiners were more accurate than novices, regardless of comparison difficulty. Overall, on trials where probative decisions were given, examiners made false identifications and false exclusions on a total of 3% and 2% of trials, while novices made false identifications and false exclusions on a total of 19% and 17% of trials. Examiners also demonstrated better consensus in their opinions than novices, although both groups demonstrated low levels of agreement in their responses and variability in their interpretation of the conclusion scale. In summary, these findings support the proposition that footwear examiners show expert-level performance in matching known and unknown footwear impressions. These performance estimates may help the criminal justice system to appropriately value footwear examination evidence.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of PCV20 to prevent pneumococcal disease in the Canadian pediatric population

This study assessed the cost-effectiveness of the 20-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV20) in Canadian infants aged <2 years versus the standard of care (SoC), a 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13), or a potential 15-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV15). A decision-analytic Markov model was developed to compare PCV20 with PCV13 or PCV15 in a 2 + 1 schedule over 10 years. Vaccine effect estimates (direct and indirect) across all ages were informed by PCV13 clinical effectiveness and impact studies as well as PCV7 efficacy studies. Epidemiologic, clinical, health state utilities, utility decrements, cost per event, and list price data were from Canadian sources where available. Clinical and economic outcomes related to invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), hospitalized and non-hospitalized pneumonia, and simple and complex otitis media (OM) were calculated for each strategy. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated from the publicly funded healthcare system perspective. Over 10 years, PCV20 versus PCV13 was estimated to avert over 11,000 IPD cases, 316,000 hospitalized and non-hospitalized pneumonia cases, 335,000 simple and complex OM cases, and 15,000 deaths, resulting in cost savings of over 3.2 billion Canadian dollars (CAD) and 47,000 more quality-adjusted life years (i.e. dominant strategy). Compared with PCV15, PCV20 was estimated to result in over 1.4 billion CAD in cost savings and 21,000 more QALYs (i.e. dominant strategy). PCV20 was dominant over both PCV13 and PCV15. Given broader serotype coverage, substantial incremental benefits and cost-savings, PCV20 should be considered as a replacement for the SoC in the publicly funded Canadian infant immunization program.

Public health impact of UK COVID-19 booster vaccination programs during Omicron predominance

BACKGROUND

We aimed to estimate the public health impact of booster vaccination against COVID-19 in the UK during an Omicron-predominant period.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A dynamic transmission model was developed to compare public health outcomes for actual and alternative UK booster vaccination programs. Input sources were publicly available data and targeted literature reviews. Base case analyses estimated outcomes from the UK's Autumn-Winter 2021-2022 booster program during January-March 2022, an Omicron-predominant period. Scenario analyses projected outcomes from Spring and in Autumn 2022 booster programs over an extended time horizon from April 2022-April 2023, assuming continued Omicron predominance, and explored hypothetical program alternatives with modified eligibility criteria and/or increased uptake.

RESULTS

Estimates predicted that the Autumn-Winter 2021-2022 booster program averted approximately 12.8 million cases, 1.1 million hospitalizations, and 290,000 deaths. Scenario analyses suggested that Spring and Autumn 2022 programs would avert approximately 6.2 million cases, 716,000 hospitalizations, and 125,000 deaths; alternatives extending eligibility or targeting risk groups would improve these benefits, and increasing uptake would further strengthen impact.

CONCLUSIONS

Boosters were estimated to provide substantial benefit to UK public health during Omicron predominance. Benefits of booster vaccination could be maximized by extending eligibility and increasing uptake.

Accounting for vaccines specificities in the Joint Clinical Assessment (JCA): a proposal for guiding principles

Issue/problem

Vaccines are an important public health intervention protecting the population against infectious diseases. The value of vaccines is broad ranging from individual to societal as achieving community immunity protects the unvaccinated, minimizes the risk of outbreaks, reduces the emergence of antimicrobial resistance, and leads to broader societal benefits.

Description of the problem

Vaccines’ market access processes are characterized by the development of recommendations by NITAGs followed by the assessment of health technology assessment (HTA) bodies in less than half of 27 EU member states. Despite that HTA for therapeutic drugs is well established, there is very limited experience in applying HTA methodologies to vaccines, especially for clinical assessments, as HTA methods and frameworks are traditionally geared toward therapeutics. However, following the adoption of the EU regulation on HTA, Joint Clinical Assessments (JCAs) of vaccines are expected.

Results

To support a discussion on how to account for vaccine specificities in the JCA, Vaccines Europe has performed a project which aimed at developing a proposal for high-level guiding principles on processes and methodologies for clinical HTA for vaccines. The proposal is informed by findings of literature reviews on currently applied processes, methods, and clinical assessment frameworks of vaccines as well as the outcomes of an advisory board with scientific experts.

Lessons

A proposal for high-level guiding principles for clinical HTA for vaccines is being developed based on both evidence and the advice from scientific experts which focuses on processes (e.g., horizon scanning, early advice, consideration of vaccine-specific expertise) and methods (e.g., unmet need, safety, efficacy/effectiveness, real-world evidence and technical characteristics of the technology). Lastly, the implementation of vaccines specificities in JCA represents a call for action.

Lawson Criterion for Ignition Exceeded in an Inertial Fusion Experiment

For more than half a century, researchers around the world have been engaged in attempts to achieve fusion ignition as a proof of principle of various fusion concepts. Following the Lawson criterion, an ignited plasma is one where the fusion heating power is high enough to overcome all the physical processes that cool the fusion plasma, creating a positive thermodynamic feedback loop with rapidly increasing temperature. In inertially confined fusion, ignition is a state where the fusion plasma can begin "burn propagation" into surrounding cold fuel, enabling the possibility of high energy gain. While "scientific breakeven" (i.e., unity target gain) has not yet been achieved (here target gain is 0.72, 1.37 MJ of fusion for 1.92 MJ of laser energy), this Letter reports the first controlled fusion experiment, using laser indirect drive, on the National Ignition Facility to produce capsule gain (here 5.8) and reach ignition by nine different formulations of the Lawson criterion.

POS1569-PARE TESTING A NEW APPROACH TO IDENTIFY AND ASSESS PATIENT-VALUED TREATMENT GOALS IN RHEUMATOID ARTHRITIS (RA): A PATIENT-ENGAGED HEALTHCARE VALUATION STRATEGY

Background

Common approaches to valuing health technologies often fail to capture outcomes that matter to patients and families. The treatment goals of people living with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) include common trial endpoints but also include other facets of disease impact. Identifying a feasible and rigorous approach to inclusion of the patient perspective is needed as trialists increasingly seek to incorporate patient-important outcomes in trial design and as varied patient-centered value assessment frameworks emerge. No standard approach is available to systemically identify and quantify patient-important outcomes, nor to include those outcomes in deliberative decision-making. We developed the Patient-Engaged Healthcare Valuation strategy, using principles of goal attainment scaling to frame survey-based goal collection directly from adults.

Objectives

To develop and test a goal-based method for collecting RA patient input for use in clinical trials and value assessment and evaluating the feasibility of this approach in people with RA.

Methods

Patient goals and domains were identified from (1) a literature review (2010-2020) of patient outcomes, goals, and preferences in RA, and (2) discussions with patients and clinicians during two meetings with a steering committee (SC) consisting of clinicians, outcomes researchers, patients/advocates, and health economists. These goals informed the development of a draft survey. Adults with RA were recruited from online patient networks to rate goal importance and suggest additional goals. SC members reviewed the survey findings and assessed feasibility of scaling up goal collection for HTA.

Results

Of 135 articles identified, 17 were retained. An inductive and iterative approach was used to identify and thematically group the final set of 36 goals into 4 domains. The draft survey was cognitively debriefed with 4 adults with RA. The first survey was administered to 20 participants; results informed item revisions and additions for the second round of data collection (n=27).

The 47 respondents were mostly White (87%), college-educated (72%) women (93%) living with RA for an average of 15 years; 75% rated their RA as moderate to severe. Free-text goals added in round 1 include: 1) finding specialists who listen to patient input on symptoms; 2) addressing loneliness or isolation; and 3) finding support from or helping others with RA. All Symptom and Life Impact goals were rated as Important or Very Important by ≥85% of participants; endorsement for Management and Treatment goals was somewhat more variable, with ≥85% endorsing these as Somewhat to Very Important. Results suggested that domains match key goals. Steering committee ratings supported the feasibility of this method.

Conclusion

Goals relevant for RA treatment evaluation can be efficiently identified and rated for importance by patients. Patient-important goals can be incorporated into deliberative healthcare valuation using this method to permit “crowd-sourced” input from people living with RA and to capture heterogeneous patient perspectives in healthcare valuation.

Table 1.

Top Goals based on rating as “Very Important” by >70% of subjects, from set of 36. “My goals for living with RA are to…”

GoalsNot ImportantSomewhat ImportantImportantVery ImportantSymptom Managementimprove the quality of my life with RA0% (0)0% (0)23% (11)77% (36)manage my RA pain0% (0)2% (1)11% (5)87% (41)reduce how my RA pain interferes with my life0% (0)9% (4)17% (8)74% (35)Life Impactreduce the ways in which RA interferes with my life0% (0)2% (1)21% (10)77% (36)be independent in my daily functioning0% (0)4% (1)15% (4)81% (22)Managing my RAfeel like I can manage my RA0% (0)2% (1)26% (12)72% (34)Treatment Featuresunderstand my RA treatment options0% (0)4% (2)21% (10)74% (35)have the information I need to make treatment decisions0% (0)0% (0)19% (9)81% (38)know what to expect with my RA treatment0% (0)2% (1)23% (11)74% (35)find treatments that are effective0% (0)0% (0)6% (3)94% (44)

Acknowledgements

I have no acknowledgements to declare.

Disclosure of Interests

None declared

Effects of Tissue Temperature and Injury on ADC during Therapeutic Hypothermia in Newborn Hypoxic-Ischemic Encephalopathy

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

ADC changes are useful in detecting ischemic brain injury, but mechanisms other than tissue pathology may affect the kinetic movement and diffusion of water molecules. We aimed to determine the effects of brain temperature on the corresponding ADC in infants undergoing therapeutic hypothermia.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Brain temperature and ADC values in the basal ganglia, thalamus, cortical GM, and WM were analyzed during and after therapeutic hypothermia. The study cohort was categorized as having no-injury or injury. Among infants without injury, the correlation between ADC values and temperature was analyzed using the Pearson correlation. Intrasubject comparison of ADC changes during and after therapeutic hypothermia were analyzed, excluding patients who had an MR image interval of >5 days to minimize the effects of injury evolution.

RESULTS

Thirty-nine infants with hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy were enrolled (23 no-injury; 16 injury). The median ADC was significantly lower during therapeutic hypothermia (837; interquartile range, 771-928, versus 906; interquartile range, 844-1032 ×10^-6mm²/s; P < .001). There was no difference in the ADC between the no-injury and injury groups during therapeutic hypothermia (823; interquartile range, 782-868, versus 842; interquartile range, 770-1008 ×10^-6mm²/s; P  = .4). In the no-injury group, in which ADC is presumed least affected by the evolution of injury, the median ADC was significantly lower during therapeutic hypothermia (826; interquartile range, 771-866, versus 897; interquartile range, 846-936 ×10^-6mm²/s; P  < .001). There was a moderate correlation between temperature and ADC in the no-injury group (during therapeutic hypothermia: Spearman ρ, 0.48; P  < .001; after therapeutic hypothermia: ρ, 0.4; P  < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Aside from brain injury, reduced tissue temperature may also contribute to diffusion restriction on MR imaging in infants undergoing therapeutic hypothermia.

294 Implementation of Colorectal Robotic Assisted Surgical Programme During a Global Pandemic: Collaboration Between Territorial and National Waiting Times Centre

Introduction

Golden Jubilee National Hospital (GJNH) established a thoracic Robotic Assisted Surgical (RAS) programme in 2018. In March 2021, GJNH invested in a new elective colorectal service and in response to the Scottish Government robotic investment established a collaboration with a territorial health board to host their robot and start a RAS colorectal programme. We provide an overview of barriers and facilitators leading to establishing this new collaboration.

Method

An observational review of RAS training timeline. Demographics, surgical operations, and hospital length of stay were documented. Surgeons, perioperative team, management, and industry (Intuitive) were interviewed to provide insights into implementation and training.

Results

Boards approved RAS business case in April 2021, robot on-site with GJNH governance approval in May. First cohort of colorectal surgeons completed proctored training July 2021. To date, 17 RAS resections performed (mean age 64, 9 males: 8 female). Mean length of stay 4.65 days. No anastomotic leaks and no mortality reported. Interviews revealed key facilitators: advantage of having an established RAS perioperative team and building on pre-existing industry links; developing and strengthening collaborative working between different health boards and surgeons. Barriers included: education of all team members to ensure patient safety for new specialty; multisite collaborative working.

Conclusions

This work provides a template model for future RAS collaborations between different sites and health boards. Collaborative working in a green-hospital setting may improve equity of access for patients whilst future-proofing surgery against further waves of the pandemic.

Public health impact of booster vaccination against COVID-19 in the UK during Delta variant dominance in autumn 2021

AIM

To evaluate the public health impact of the UK COVID-19 booster vaccination program in autumn 2021, during a period of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant predominance.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A compartmental Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered model was used to compare age-stratified health outcomes for adult booster vaccination versus no booster vaccination in the UK over a time horizon of September-December 2021, when boosters were introduced in the UK and the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant was predominant. Model input data were sourced from targeted literature reviews and publicly available data. Outcomes were predicted COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC) cases, deaths, and productivity losses averted, and predicted healthcare resources saved. Scenario analyses varied booster coverage, virus infectivity and severity, and time horizon parameters.

RESULTS

Booster vaccination was estimated to have averted approximately 547,000 COVID-19 cases, 36,000 hospitalizations, 147,000 PASC cases, and 4,200 deaths in the UK between September and December 2021. It saved over 316,000 hospital bed-days and prevented the loss of approximately 16.5 million paid and unpaid patient work days. In a scenario of accelerated uptake, the booster rollout would have averted approximately 3,400 additional deaths and 25,500 additional hospitalizations versus the base case. A scenario analysis assuming four-fold greater virus infectivity and lower severity estimated that booster vaccination would have averted over 105,000 deaths and over 41,000 hospitalizations versus the base case. A scenario analysis assuming pediatric primary series vaccination prior to adult booster vaccination estimated that expanding vaccination to children aged ≥5 years would have averted approximately 51,000 additional hospitalizations and 5,400 additional deaths relative to adult booster vaccination only.

LIMITATIONS

The model did not include the wider economic burden of COVID-19, hospital capacity constraints, booster implementation costs, or non-pharmaceutical interventions.

CONCLUSIONS

Booster vaccination during Delta variant predominance reduced the health burden of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK, releasing substantial NHS capacity.

Public health impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination: a review of measurement challenges

INTRODUCTION

Modeling analyses have attempted to quantify the global impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) on pneumococcal disease (PD), however these pediatric models face several challenges in obtaining comprehensive impact measurements.

AREAS COVERED

We present several measurement challenges and discuss examples from recently published pediatric modeling evaluations. Challenges include estimating the number of infants fully or partially vaccinated with PCVs, inclusion of indirect effects of vaccination, accounting for various dosing schedules, capturing effect of PCVs on nonspecific, noninvasive PD, and inclusion of adult PCV use.

EXPERT OPINION

The true impact of PCVs has been consistently underestimated in published analyses due to multiple measurement challenges. Nearly 100 million adults are estimated to have received PCV13 over the last decade globally, potentially preventing up to 662 thousand cases of PD. Approximately 4.1 million cases of invasive PD alone may have been averted through indirect protection. Estimates of PCV impact on noninvasive PD remain a challenge due to altered epidemiology. Program switches, incomplete vaccination, and private market uptake among children also confound PD impact estimates. Taken together, the number of averted PD cases from PCV use in the last ten years may be up to three times higher than estimated in previous studies.

Twenty-Year Public Health Impact of 7- and 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccines in US Children

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) have been used in the United States since 2000. To assess the cumulative 20-year effect of PCVs on invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) incidence among children <5 years of age, we analyzed Active Bacterial Core Surveillance data, conducted a literature review, and modeled expected and observed disease. We found that PCVs have averted >282,000 cases of IPD, including ≈16,000 meningitis, ≈172,000 bacteremia, and ≈55,000 bacteremic pneumonia cases. In addition, vaccination has prevented 97 million healthcare visits for otitis media, 438,914-706,345 hospitalizations for pneumonia, and 2,780 total deaths. IPD cases declined 91%, from 15,707 in 1997 to 1,382 in 2019. Average annual visits for otitis media declined 41%, from 78 visits/100 children before PCV introduction to 46 visits/100 children after PCV13 introduction. Annual pneumonia hospitalizations declined 66%-79%, from 110,000-175,000 in 1997 to 37,000 in 2019. These findings confirm the substantial benefits of PCVs for preventing IPD in children.

High-efficiency, fifth-harmonic generation of a joule-level neodymium laser in a large-aperture ammonium dihydrogen phosphate crystal

High-energy deep ultraviolet (UV) sources are required for high-density plasma diagnostics. The fifth-harmonic generation of large-aperture neodymium lasers in ammonium dihydrogen phosphate (ADP) can significantly increase UV energies due to the availability of large ADP crystals. Noncritical phase matching in ADP for (ω + 4ω) was achieved by cooling a 65 × 65-mm crystal in a two-chamber cryostat to 200 K. The crystal chamber used helium as the thermally conductive medium between the crystal and the crystal chamber, which was surrounded by a high-vacuum chamber with a liquid nitrogen reservoir. A temperature variation of 0.2 K across the crystal aperture was obtained. The total conversion efficiency from the fundamental to the fifth harmonic at 211 nm was 26%.

1394. Impact of 7-Valent and 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccines in the United States: A Systematic Literature Review

Background

The availability of 7-valent (PCV7) and 13-valent (PCV13) pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) in the United States (US) since 2000 and 2010, respectively, has substantially reduced the occurrence, morbidity and mortality of pneumococcal disease. This systematic literature review aimed to assess the impact of the PCVs in reducing the pneumococcal disease burden since their introduction.

Methods

We searched Embase and Medline and disease-surveillance websites for observational studies of US participants < 19 years, published 1999–2019 and reporting incidence or prevalence of acute otitis media, invasive pneumococcal disease, meningitis, or pneumococcal disease-related morbidity, mortality, healthcare resource utilization (HCRU) or costs.

Results

Of 499 citations identified from the databases and other sources, 125 met inclusion criteria (Figure), all indicating clear reductions in multiple manifestations of pneumococcal disease with PCV7 and PCV13 use. However, variations across studies in outcomes reported, study years, and age strata, confounded assessment of vaccine impact on specific pneumococcal disease outcomes and key burden indicators, such as tympanostomy tube placement and antibiotic prescriptions.

Conclusion

PCVs have greatly decreased multiple manifestations of pneumococcal disease in the US. However, granular data on the frequency and morbidity associated with specific pneumococcal diseases and on associated HCRU are needed to quantify the public-health impact of these vaccines.

Disclosures

Kristin Kistler, PhD, Evidera, Inc. (Employee, Evidera, Inc. received the funding to conduct this study.) Evelyn F. Gomez-Espinosa, BSc, PhD, Evidera Inc (Employee, Scientific Research Study Investigator)Pfizer Inc (Consultant, Scientific Research Study Investigator) Kelly Sutton, PhD, Evidera (Other Financial or Material Support, Evidera, Inc. received the funding to conduct this study.) Ruth Chapman, MSc, PhD, Evidera, Inc, (Evidera, Inc. received the funding to conduct this study.) (Consultant) Desmond Dillon-Murphy, MSc, PhD, Evidera, Inc. (Evidera, Inc. received the funding to conduct this study.) (Consultant) Matthew Wasserman, MSc., Pfizer Inc. (Employee)

1404. Twenty-year impact of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccines (PCV) on the burden of invasive pneumococcal disease in US children less than 5 years of age

Background

Clinical trials of PCV7 demonstrate significant reductions in vaccine-type (VT) invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), clinically diagnosed pneumonia in children less than 5 years of age and VT acute otitis media in children &lt; 2 years of age. Observational, population-based studies demonstrate a reduction in overall IPD in US children following the introduction of PCV7 and PCV13. The cumulative impact of PCV on IPD syndromes over the 20 years following introduction into the US national immunization program has not been detailed.

Methods

Published and unpublished data from the Active Bacterial Core (ABC) surveillance network were used to calculate annual incidence rates of IPD and the proportional distribution by syndrome in children &lt; 5 years of age. Cases averted were calculated from published incidence for each IPD syndrome and population data, for the pre-PCV, PCV7, and PCV13 eras. Cases averted over 2000-2009 were assumed due to PCV7 only, and those averted from 2010-2019 were assumed due to PCV13 only. It was assumed that in the absence of PCVs, disease incidence would have remained constant.

Results

Annual cases of overall IPD, pneumococcal meningitis, and bacteremic pneumonia each declined more than 85% between the pre PCV7 incidence and the estimated incidence for 2019 (table 1). Overall, we estimated 282,600 cases of IPD, including 30,500 cases of meningitis and 78,400 cases of bacteremic pneumonia were averted. We calculated a reduction of ~ 287,600 VT cases of IPD minimally offset by an increase of ~5,000 non-VT cases. Deaths per 100,000 children &lt; 5 years of age attributable to IPD declined by 67% in 2009 and by 64% in 2019 compared to 1997-1999. In total, 1,628 deaths in children &lt; 5 years were averted between 2000 and 2019.

Table 1. Annual Cases of IPD by syndrome in US Children Less than 5 years of age

Conclusion

The substantial public health impact of PCVs over the last two decades, as measured in cases and deaths averted in children less than 5 years, re-enforces the important role vaccines play in reducing the burden of serious disease in children.

Disclosures

Rotem Lapidot, MD, MSCI, Pfizer (Consultant) Ruth Chapman, MSc, PhD, Evidera, Inc, (Evidera, Inc. received the funding to conduct this study.) (Consultant) Kelly Sutton, PhD, Evidera (Employee) Desmond Dillon-Murphy, MSc, PhD, Evidera, Inc. (Evidera, Inc. received the funding to conduct this study.) (Consultant) Shreeya Patel, PhD, Evidera, Inc, (Evidera, Inc. received the funding to conduct this study.) (Consultant) Erica Chilson, PharmD, Pfizer (Employee, Shareholder) Vincenza Snow, MD, Pfizer (Employee) Raymond Farkouh, PhD, Pfizer (Employee) Matthew Wasserman, MSc., Pfizer Inc. (Employee) Stephen I. Pelton, MD, Merck vaccine (Consultant, Grant/Research Support)Pfizer (Consultant, Grant/Research Support)Sanofi Pasteur (Consultant, Other Financial or Material Support, DSMB)Seqirus Vaccine Ltd. (Consultant)

Ten year public health impact of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccination in infants: A modelling analysis

Pneumococcal disease is a substantial contributor to illness and death in young children globally. The introduction of 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) in 2000 had a significant impact in preventing pneumococcal disease in both vaccinated children and unvaccinated individuals (through herd effect). A higher valent PCV13 replaced PCV7 in late 2009. This analysis was undertaken to assess how many cases and deaths have been averted over the last decade since PCV13 introduction. A model estimated the number of infants vaccinated annually with PCV13, as well as the number of cases and deaths of invasive pneumococcal disease, pneumococcal pneumonia, and acute otitis media cases averted. PCV13 vaccination was estimated to have prevented 175.2 million cases of all pneumococcal diseases and 624,904 deaths globally between 2010 and 2019. These results demonstrate the substantial public health impact of PCV13 and highlight the importance of increasing the global reach of PCV programs.

Abstract B71: Molecular heterogeneity and novel oncogenic fusions in RELA- and YAP1-negative supratentorial ependymoma

Introduction: One of the DNA methylation-based molecular subgroups of supratentorial ependymoma (ST-EPN), designated ST-EPN-RELA, mostly harbors fusions of the uncharacterized gene C11orf95 and RELA (ST-EPN-RELA). Rarely, no C11orf95-RELA fusion is detected in tumors predicted to belong to the ST-EPN-RELA group. With this study we aimed to refine the molecular classification of ST-EPN and to identify alternative oncogenic mechanisms in the absence of a classic fusion type.

Methods and Materials: In an unbiased approach, t-Distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding was applied to 53,468 DNA methylation profiles from brain tumors, other cancer types, and control tissues. Only samples clustering with a reference set of ST-EPN-RELA were selected for further analyses (n=614), including RNA- and/or DNA-panel sequencing, histopathologic reevaluation, and immunohistochemistry for L1CAM. Fusions were validated using RT-PCR on total RNA and Sanger sequencing. Clinical data were analyzed retrospectively for 150 patients.

Results: We identified one large and four satellite clusters. The large cluster (n=479; designated ST-EPN-RELA 1) and one of the satellite clusters (n=12; ST-EPN-RELA 2) predominantly contained samples with a calibrated score ≥ 0.9 for ST-EPN-RELA based on the current version of the Heidelberg Brain Tumor Classifier. Samples of the three other satellite clusters (n=41, n=17, and n=25 samples) contained 65.9%, 88.2%, and 96.0% of samples with a calibrated score &lt; 0.9 for any methylation class, and were thus predicted as unclassifiable. These clusters were provisionally designated ST-EPN-RELA-like A, B, and C, and initial histologic diagnoses showed a wide spectrum of rare morphologies beside EPN, e.g., sarcoma and teratoma. Within clusters ST-EPN-RELA-like A and C, sequencing revealed fusions of C11orf95 with different partner genes, including MAML2 (n=14), MAML3 (n=2), and NCOA2 (n=7), while ST-EPN-RELA-like B included classic C11orf95-RELA fusions (n=11) in samples with initial diagnoses other than EPN. Copy number variation analysis showed clear differences between the clusters. L1CAM-positivity was observed in all groups. Within the cluster ST-EPN-RELA 1, samples separated according to fusion types, 1 versus 2/3. Analysis of clinical data showed significant differences in overall survival between cases with confirmed C11orf95-RELA fusion type 1 (n=25, median OS=88 months) and type 2/3 (n=20, median OS=67 months). Clinical data collection for the satellite clusters is currently ongoing.

Conclusion: Molecular refinement of ST-EPN-RELA revealed novel subgroups harboring fusions of C11orf95 with numerous fusion partners different from RELA, which will be included in the next update of the Heidelberg Classifier. Preliminary analysis suggests differences in clinical outcome related to the fusion type. Findings of this study will improve diagnostic accuracy and clinical management and need to be considered when developing targeted treatment strategies against ST-EPN.

Citation Format: D.R. Ghasemi, K. Okonechnikov, A. Korshunov, M. Sill, T. Zheng, J.M. Huebner, K.K. Maass, J. Benzel, M. Snuderl, J. Gojo, U. Schüller, N.U. Gerber, I. Stoler, P. Hernáiz-Driever, T. Milde, D. Sturm, R. Chapman, R.G. Grundy, A. von Deimling, D. Kawauchi, D.T.W. Jones, M. Kool, S.M. Pfister, F. Sahm, K.W. Pajtler. Molecular heterogeneity and novel oncogenic fusions in RELA- and YAP1-negative supratentorial ependymoma [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the AACR Special Conference on the Advances in Pediatric Cancer Research; 2019 Sep 17-20; Montreal, QC, Canada. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2020;80(14 Suppl):Abstract nr B71.

Photoemission from non-polar aromatic molecules in the gas and liquid phase

The photoelectron spectra of both liquid and gas phase aromatic molecules are reported. The spectra were obtained using a 34.1 eV source produced by high harmonic generation and analysed with the help of high-level ab initio simulations using the reflection principle combined with path integral molecular dynamics simulations accounting for nuclear quantum effects for the gas phase. We demonstrate the suitability of three trimethylbenzenes (1,3,5-trimethylbenzene, 1,2,3-trimethylbenzene and 1,2,4-trimethylbenzene) as a solvent for liquid photoelectron spectroscopy of solute species. We also discuss the electrokinetic charging of a non-polar liquid jet.

Asherman's syndrome: A review of the literature, and a husband and wife's 20-year world-wide experience

Asherman's syndrome is reviewed, and 27 cases treated by us in Iran, England, New Zealand and Australia over a 20-year period are analysed. Aetiological factors and treatment are discussed. In view of the high incidence of complications in subsequent pregnancies, the need for prevention is stressed. Although more common in some countries, it is, nevertheless, of world-wide distribution and, unless looked for, will be missed.

Investigating the Pygmy Dipole Resonance Using β Decay

In this contribution it is explored whether γ-ray spectroscopy following β decay with high Q values from mother nuclei with low ground-state spin can be exploited as a probe for the pygmy dipole resonance. The suitability of this approach is demonstrated by a comparison between data from photon scattering, ^{136}Xe(γ,γ^{'}), and ^{136}I [J_{0}^{π}=(1^{-})]→^{136}Xe^{*} β-decay data. It is demonstrated that β decay populates 1^{-} levels associated with the pygmy dipole resonance, but only a fraction of those. The complementary insight into the wave functions probed by β decay is elucidated by calculations within the quasiparticle phonon model. It is demonstrated that β decay dominantly populates complex configurations, which are only weakly excited in inelastic scattering experiments.

Using Deception to Establish a Reproducible Improvement in 4-Km Cycling Time Trial Performance

We investigated whether performance gains achieved with deception persisted after the deception was revealed, and whether pacing strategy changed. 14 trained cyclists completed 4 simulated 4-km time trials (TT) on a cycle ergometer comprising familiarization and baseline trials (BAS), followed by "unaware" (of deception, UAW) and "aware" (of deception, AW) trials on separate days. In the UAW trial, participants competed against an on-screen avatar set at 102% of their baseline trial mean power output (Pmean) believing it was set at 100% of BAS Pmean. 24 h prior to the AW trial, participants were informed of the deception in the UAW trial. 4 participants did not improve in the UAW trial compared to BAS. 10 participants improved time to completion (TTC) and Pmean in the UAW and AW trials compared to BAS (p<0.03) with no significant differences between UAW and AW (p=1.0). Pacing strategy (at 0.5-km intervals) and RPE responses were unchanged (p>0.05) for these participants. In summary, deception did not improve performance in all participants. However, participants whose time trial performance improved following deception could retain their performance gains once the deception was revealed, demonstrating a similar pacing strategy and RPE response.

Cost-effectiveness and public health benefit of secondary cardiovascular disease prevention from improved adherence using a polypill in the UK

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the public health and economic benefits of adherence to a fixed-dose combination polypill for the secondary prevention of cardiovascular (CV) events in adults with a history of myocardial infarction (MI) in the UK.

DESIGN

Markov-model-based cost-effectiveness analysis, informed by systematic reviews, which identified efficacy, utilities and adherence data inputs.

SETTING

General practice in the UK.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients with a mean age of 64.7 years, most of whom are men with a recent or non-recent diagnosis of MI and for whom secondary preventive medication is indicated and well tolerated.

INTERVENTION

Fixed-dose combination polypill (100 mg aspirin, 20 mg atorvastatin and 2.5, 5, or 10 mg ramipril) compared with multiple monotherapy.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

CV events prevented per 1000 patients; cost per life-year gained; and cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained.

RESULTS

The model estimates that for each 10% increase in adherence, an additional 6.7% fatal and non-fatal CV events can be prevented. In the base case, over 10 years, the polypill would improve adherence by ∼20% and thereby prevent 47 of 323 (15%) fatal and non-fatal CV events per 1000 patients compared with multiple monotherapy, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £8200 per QALY gained. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses for the base-case assumptions showed an 81.5% chance of the polypill being cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000 per QALY gained compared with multiple monotherapy. In scenario analyses that varied structural assumptions, ICERs ranged between cost saving and £21,430 per QALY gained.

CONCLUSIONS

Assuming that some 450,000 adults are at risk of MI, a 10 percentage point uptake of the polypill could prevent 3260 CV events and 590 CV deaths over a decade.The polypill appears to be a cost-effective strategy to prevent fatal and non-fatal CV events in the UK.

The costs of managing genital warts in the UK by devolved nation: England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland

Genital warts, 90% of which are caused by human papillomavirus types 6 and 11, are a significant problem in the UK. The cost of managing genital warts was previously estimated at £52.4 million for 2010. The objective of this study was to estimate the cost of genital warts management up to 2012 in the UK and by jurisdiction. Population statistics and the number of reported genital warts cases in genito-urinary medicine clinics were obtained and extrapolated to 2012. Cases of genital warts treated in primary care were estimated from The Health Improvement Network database. The number of visits and therapy required were estimated by genito-urinary medicine experts. Costs were obtained from the appropriate national tariffs. The model estimated there were 220,875 genital warts cases in the UK in 2012, costing £58.44 million (£265/patient). It estimated 157,793 cases in England costing £41.74 million; 7468 cases in Scotland costing £1.90 million; 7095 cases in Wales costing £1.87 million; and 3621 cases in Northern Ireland costing £948,000. The full National Health Service costs for the management of genital warts have never previously been estimated separately for each jurisdiction. Findings reveal a significant economic burden, which is important to quantify when understanding the value of quadrivalent human papilloma virus vaccination.

Quantifying Parameter and Structural Uncertainty of Dynamic Disease Transmission Models Using MCMC: An Application to Rotavirus Vaccination in England and Wales

BACKGROUND

Two vaccines (Rotarix and RotaTeq) are highly effective at preventing severe rotavirus disease. Rotavirus vaccination has been introduced in the United Kingdom and other countries partly based on modeling and cost-effectiveness results. However, most of these models fail to account for the uncertainty about several vaccine characteristics and the mechanism of vaccine action.

METHODS

A deterministic dynamic transmission model of rotavirus vaccination in the United Kingdom was developed. This improves on previous models by 1) allowing for 2 different mechanisms of action for Rotarix and RotaTeq, 2) using clinical trial data to understand these mechanisms, and 3) accounting for uncertainty by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo.

RESULTS

In the long run, Rotarix and RotaTeq are predicted to reduce the overall rotavirus incidence by 50% (39%-63%) and 44% (30%-62%), respectively but with an increase in incidence in primary school children and adults up to 25 y of age. The vaccines are estimated to give more protection than 1 or 2 natural infections. The duration of protection is highly uncertain but has only impact on the predicted reduction in rotavirus burden for values lower than 10 y. The 2 vaccine mechanism structures fit equally well with the clinical trial data. Long-term postvaccination dynamics cannot be predicted reliably with the data available.

CONCLUSION

Accounting for the joint uncertainty of several vaccine characteristics resulted in more insight into which of these are crucial for determining the impact of rotavirus vaccination. Data for up to at least 10 y postvaccination and covering older children and adults are crucial to address remaining questions on the impact of widespread rotavirus vaccination.

Using daptomycin in hospitalised patients with cSSTI caused by Staphylococcus aureus has an impact on costs

BACKGROUND

The aim was to assess the cost impact of daptomycin compared to vancomycin treatment in patients hospitalised for complicated skin and soft-tissue infection (cSSTI) with suspected methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus infection in the UK.

METHODS

A decision model was developed to estimate the costs associated with cSSTI treatment. Data on efficacy, treatment duration and early discharge from published clinical trials were used, with data gaps on standard clinical practice being filled by means of clinician interviews.

RESULTS

Total health-care costs per patient were GBP 6,214 and GBP 6,491 for daptomycin and vancomycin, respectively. A sensitivity analysis suggested that modifying the parameters within a reasonable range does not impact on the conclusion that the higher cost of daptomycin is likely to be offset by lower costs of monitoring and hospitalisation.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates that daptomycin not only provides an alternative treatment for multiple resistant infections, but may also reduce National Health Service costs.

Mind the gaps: what's missing from current economic evaluations of universal HPV vaccination?

BACKGROUND

Since the original licensing of human papilloma virus (HPV) vaccination for women, evidence is accumulating of its effectiveness in preventing HPV-related conditions in men, and universal vaccination (vaccinating men and women) is now recommended in some countries. Several models of the cost-effectiveness of universal HPV vaccination have been published, but results have been mixed. This article assesses the extent to which economic studies have captured the range of values associated with universal HPV vaccination, and how this influences estimates of its cost-effectiveness.

METHODS

Eight published economic evaluations of universal HPV vaccination were reviewed to identify which of the values associated with universal HPV vaccination were included in each analysis.

RESULTS

Studies of the cost-effectiveness of universal HPV vaccination capture only a fraction of the values generated. Most studies focused on impacts on health and health system cost, and only captured these partially. A range of values is excluded from most studies, including impacts on productivity, patient time and costs, carers and family costs, and broader social values such as the right to access treatment. Further, those studies that attempted to capture these values only did so partially.

DISCUSSION

Decisions to invest in universal HPV vaccination need to be based on a complete assessment of the value that it generates. This is not provided by existing economic evaluations. Further work is required to understand this value. First, research is required to understand how HPV-related health outcomes impact on society including, for instance, their impact on productivity. Second, consideration should be given to alternative approaches to capture this broader set of values in a manner useful to decisions-makers, such as multi-criteria decision analysis.

The dual impact of antiretroviral therapy and sexual behaviour changes on HIV epidemiologic trends in Uganda: a modelling study

Objectives

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) availability in a population may influence risky sexual behaviour. We examine the potential impact of ART on the HIV epidemic, incorporating evidence for the impact that ART may have on risky sexual behaviour.

Methods

A mathematical model, parameterised using site-specific data from Uganda and worldwide literature review, was used to examine the likely impact of ART on HIV epidemiologic trends. We varied assumptions about rates of initiating ART, and changes in sexual partner turnover rates.

Results

Modelling suggests that ART will reduce HIV incidence over 20 years, and increase prevalence. Even in the optimistic scenario of ART enrollment beginning after just five months of infection (in HIV stage 2), prevalence is estimated to rise from a baseline of 10.5% and 8.3% among women and men, respectively, to at least 12.1% and 10.2%, respectively. It will rise further if sexual disinhibition occurs or infectiousness while on ART is slightly higher (2% female to male, rather than 0.5%). The conditions required for ART to reduce prevalence over this period are likely too extreme to be achievable. For example, if ART enrolment begins in HIV stage 1 (within the first 5 months of infection), and if risky sexual behaviour does not increase, then 3 of our 11 top fitting results estimate a potential drop in HIV prevalence by 2025. If sexual risk taking rises, it will have a large additional impact on expected HIV prevalence. Prevalence will rise despite incidence falling, because ART extends life expectancy.

Conclusions

HIV prevalence will rise. Even small increases in partner turnover rates will lead to an additional substantial increase in HIV prevalence. Policy makers are urged to continue HIV prevention activities, including promoting sex education, and to be prepared for a higher than previously suggested number of HIV infected people in need of treatment.

Potential overestimation of HPV vaccine impact due to unmasking of non-vaccine types: quantification using a multi-type mathematical model

INTRODUCTION

Estimates of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine impact in clinical trials and modelling studies rely on DNA tests of cytology or biopsy specimens to determine the HPV type responsible for a cervical lesion. DNA of several oncogenic HPV types may be detectable in a specimen. However, only one type may be responsible for a particular cervical lesion. Misattribution of the causal HPV type for a particular abnormality may give rise to an apparent increase in disease due to non-vaccine HPV types following vaccination ("unmasking").

METHODS

To investigate the existence and magnitude of unmasking, we analysed data from residual cytology and biopsy specimens in English women aged 20-64 years old using a stochastic type-specific individual-based model of HPV infection, progression and disease. The model parameters were calibrated to data on the prevalence of HPV DNA and cytological lesion of different grades, and used to assign causal HPV types to cervical lesions. The difference between the prevalence of all disease due to non-vaccine HPV types, and disease due to non-vaccine HPV types in the absence of vaccine HPV types, was then estimated.

RESULTS

There could be an apparent maximum increase of 3-10% in long-term cervical cancer incidence due to non-vaccine HPV types following vaccination.

CONCLUSION

Unmasking may be an important phenomenon in HPV post-vaccination epidemiology, in the same way that has been observed following pneumococcal conjugate vaccination.

Comparing bivalent and quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccines: economic evaluation based on transmission model

OBJECTIVES

To compare the effect and cost effectiveness of bivalent and quadrivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, taking into account differences in licensure indications, protection against non-vaccine type disease, protection against disease related to HPV types 6 and 11, and reported long term immunogenicity.

DESIGN

A model of HPV transmission and disease previously used to inform UK vaccination policy, updated with recent evidence and expanded to include scenarios where the two vaccines differ in duration of protection, cross protection, and end points prevented.

SETTING

United Kingdom. Population Males and females aged 12-75 years.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Incremental cost effectiveness ratios for both vaccines and additional cost per dose for the quadrivalent vaccine to be equally cost effective as the bivalent vaccine.

RESULTS

The bivalent vaccine needs to be cheaper than the quadrivalent vaccine to be equally cost effective, mainly because of its lack of protection against anogenital warts. The price difference per dose ranges from a median of £19 (interquartile range £12-£27) to £35 (£27-£44) across scenarios about vaccine duration, cross protection, and end points prevented (assuming one quality adjusted life year (QALY) is valued at £30,000 and both vaccines can prevent all types of HPV related cancers).

CONCLUSIONS

The quadrivalent vaccine may have an advantage over the bivalent vaccine in reducing healthcare costs and QALYs lost. The bivalent vaccine may have an advantage in preventing death due to cancer. However, considerable uncertainty remains about the differential benefit of the two vaccines.