Impact analysis of rotavirus vaccination in various geographic regions in Western Europe

BACKGROUND

Universal mass vaccination (UMV) against rotavirus has been implemented in many but not all European countries. This study investigated the impact of UMV on rotavirus incidence trends by comparing European countries with UMV: Belgium, England/Wales and Germany versus countries without UMV: Denmark and the Netherlands.

METHODS

For this observational retrospective cohort study, time series data (2001-2016) on rotavirus detections, meteorological factors and population demographics were collected. For each country, several meteorological and population factors were investigated as possible predictors of rotavirus incidence. The final set of predictors were incorporated in negative binomial models accounting for seasonality and serial autocorrelation, and time-varying incidence rate ratios (IRR) were calculated for each age group and country separately. The overall vaccination impact two years after vaccine implementation was estimated by pooling the results using a random effects meta-analyses. Independent t-tests were used to compare annual epidemics in the pre-vaccination and post-vaccination era to explore any changes in the timing of rotavirus epidemics.

RESULTS

The population size and several meteorological factors were predictors for the rotavirus epidemiology. Overall, we estimated a 42% (95%-CI 23;56%) reduction in rotavirus incidence attributable to UMV. Strongest reductions were observed for age-groups 0-, 1- and 2-years (IRR 0.47, 0.48 and 0.63, respectively). No herd effect induced by UMV in neighbouring countries was observed. In all UMV countries, the start and/or stop and corresponding peak of the rotavirus season was delayed by 4-7 weeks.

CONCLUSIONS

The introduction of rotavirus UMV resulted in an overall reduction of 42% in rotavirus incidence in Western European countries two years after vaccine introduction and caused a change in seasonal pattern. No herd effect induced by UMV neighbouring countries was observed for Denmark and the Netherlands.

Post-vaccination HPV seroprevalence among female sexual health clinic attenders in England

BACKGROUND

The National HPV Immunisation Programme was introduced in England in September 2008 using the HPV16/18 bivalent vaccine. We conducted serological surveillance to explore vaccination coverage levels. We also conducted a case-control study to investigate a hypothesised cross-protective effect of the HPV16/18 vaccine against genital warts.

METHODS

Residual serum specimens from 16 to 20 year-old women attending six specialist sexual health services (SSHS) between 2011 and 2015 in England were tested for antibodies against HPV16 and HPV18 using a virus-like particle (VLP)-based multiplex serology assay. Patients were classified as having vaccine-induced seropositivity if they were seropositive for both HPV types and either had high antibody levels for at least one HPV type, or moderately high levels for both HPV types. Differences in vaccine-induced seropositivity by patient characteristics were investigated using logistic regression. Vaccine-induced seropositivity was then compared for patients with genital warts (cases) and matched patients without (controls).

RESULTS

Of 3,973 serum specimens collected, 3,870 (97.4%) had a valid result. The proportion of women with vaccine-induced seropositivity decreased with age (from 78.1% in 16-year-olds to 52.6% in 20-year-olds). Vaccine-induced seropositivity was lower among women born outside the UK, from more deprived areas and with a history of chlamydia diagnosis. A difference in uptake by ethnic group was also seen but this was largely confounded by differences in deprivation and country of birth. Among 537 cases and 1,515 controls, there was little evidence of a protective effect of the bivalent HPV vaccine against genital warts (adjusted odds ratio 0.93; 95% CI: 0.74-1.18).

DISCUSSION

Vaccine-induced seropositivity in this high-risk population was in line with vaccination coverage in the general population although was lower in some at-risk sub-groups. This study does not provide evidence to support a cross-protective effect of the HPV16/18 vaccine against genital warts.

The identification and validity of congenital malformation diagnoses in UK electronic health records: A systematic review

PURPOSE

To describe the methods used to identify and validate congenital malformation diagnoses recorded in UK electronic health records, and the results of validation studies.

METHODS

Medline and Embase were searched for publications between 1987 and 2019 that involved identifying congenital malformations from UK electronic health records using diagnostic codes. The methods and code-lists used to identify congenital malformations, and the methods and results of validations, were examined.

RESULTS

We retrieved 54 eligible studies; 36 identified congenital malformations from primary care data and 18 from secondary care data alone or in combination with birth and/or death records. Identification in secondary care data relied on codes from the 'Q' chapter for congenital malformations in ICD-10. In contrast, studies using primary care data frequently used additional codes outside of the 'P' chapter for congenital malformation diagnoses in Read, although the exact codes used were not always clear. Eight studies validated diagnoses identified in primary care data. The positive predictive value was highest (80%-100%) for congenital malformations overall, major malformations, and heart defects although the validity of the reference standard used was often uncertain. It was lowest for neural tube defects (71%) and developmental hip dysplasia (56%).

CONCLUSIONS

Studies identifying congenital malformations from primary care data provided limited details about the methods used. The few validation studies were limited to diagnoses recorded in primary care. Further assessments of all measures of validity in both data sources and of other malformation subgroups are needed, using robust reference standards and adhering to reporting guidelines.

Seasonal influenza vaccination during pregnancy and the risk of major congenital malformations in live-born infants: A 2010-2016 historical cohort study

Background

Available evidence indicates that seasonal inactivated influenza vaccination during pregnancy protects both the mother and her newborn and is safe. Nevertheless, ongoing safety assessments are important in sustaining vaccine uptake. Few studies have explored safety in relation to major congenital malformations (MCMs), particularly in the first trimester when most organogenesis occurs.

Methods

Anonymized UK primary care data (the Clinical Practice Research Datalink), including a recently developed Pregnancy Register, were used to identify live-born singletons delivered between 2010 and 2016. Maternal influenza vaccination was determined using primary care records and stratified by trimester. Ascertainment of MCMs from infant primary care records was maximized by linkage to hospitalization data and death certificates. The relationship between vaccination and MCMs recorded in the year after delivery and in early childhood was then assessed using multivariable Cox regression.

Results

A total of 78 150 live-birth pregnancies were identified: 6872 (8.8%) were vaccinated in the first trimester, 11 678 (14.9%) in the second, and 12 931 (16.5%) in the third. Overall, 5707 live births resulted in an infant with an MCM recorded in the year after delivery and the adjusted hazard ratio when comparing first-trimester vaccination to no vaccination was 1.06 (99% CI, .94–1.19; P = .2). Results were similar for second- and third-trimester vaccination and for analyses considering MCMs recorded beyond the first birthday.

Conclusions

In this large, population-based historical cohort study there was no evidence to suggest that seasonal influenza vaccine was associated with MCMs when given in the first trimester or subsequently in pregnancy.

Methods to generate and validate a Pregnancy Register in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink primary care database

PURPOSE

Primary care databases are increasingly used for researching pregnancy, eg, the effects of maternal drug exposures. However, ascertaining pregnancies, their timing, and outcomes in these data is challenging. While individual studies have adopted different methods, no systematic approach to characterise all pregnancies in a primary care database has yet been published. Therefore, we developed a new algorithm to establish a Pregnancy Register in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) GOLD primary care database.

METHODS

We compiled over 4000 read and entity codes to identify pregnancy-related records among women aged 11 to 49 years in CPRD GOLD. Codes were categorised by the stage or outcome of pregnancy to facilitate delineation of pregnancy episodes. We constructed hierarchical rule systems to handle information from multiple sources. We assessed the validity of the Register to identify pregnancy outcomes by comparing our results to linked hospitalisation records and Office for National Statistics population rates.

RESULTS

Our algorithm identified 5.8 million pregnancies among 2.4 million women (January 1987-February 2018). We observed close agreement with hospitalisation data regarding completeness of pregnancy outcomes (91% sensitivity for deliveries and 77% for pregnancy losses) and their timing (median 0 days difference, interquartile range 0-2 days). Miscarriage and prematurity rates were consistent with population figures, although termination and, to a lesser extent, live birth rates were underestimated in the Register.

CONCLUSIONS

The Pregnancy Register offers huge research potential because of its large size, high completeness, and availability. Further validation work is underway to enhance this data resource and identify optimal approaches for its use.

Locating gambling problems across a continuum of severity: Rasch analysis of the Quinte Longitudinal Study (QLS)

Addressing gambling problems across a continuum requires understanding of low severity problems, as well as severe levels of problem gambling or disorder. The aims of this study were thus to derive a map of how problematic gambling behaviours and harms are situated across a continuum, and identify the best available indicators of low severity problems to inform assessment and secondary prevention. This involved the Rasch analyses of baseline data from the Quinte Longitudinal Study (QLS); a community-based survey involving random-digit dialling of numbers around Belleville, Canada. Participants were n = 1305 adults with non-zero scores across 26-items from: the Problem Gambling Severity Index (PGSI); the NORC DSM Screen for Gambling Problems (NODS); and the Problem and Pathological Gambling Measure (PPGM). Results indicated that item-level measures except chasing losses provided fit to the Rasch model, and most were clustered within a narrow region of the continuum which resembled addictive disorders. At the most severe end were mainly items about harms, while there were few items representing low severity levels (feeling guilty, betting more than one can afford, attempts to reduce gambling, gambling more than intended). There was Differential Item Functioning (DIF) for several indicators of low severity problems. The findings suggest that measures remain closely aligned with psychiatric models and are suited for discriminating across severe levels of problem gambling or addictive disorder. Although cognitive-affective and behavioural indicators comprise the best available indicators of low severity symptoms, there is an urgent need for improvements in conceptualisation and measurement.

Human herpesvirus infections and dementia or mild cognitive impairment: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Interest is growing in the role of infectious agents in the pathogenesis of dementia, but current evidence is limited. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate the effect of any of eight human herpesviruses on development of dementia or mild cognitive impairment (MCI). We searched the Cochrane Library, Embase, Global Health, Medline, PsycINFO, Scopus, Web of Science, clinical trials registers and grey literature sources from inception to December 2017 for observational studies with cohort, case control or self-controlled designs, or randomised controlled trials of interventions against herpesviruses. Pooled effect estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were generated through random effects meta-analyses across studies with the same design, outcome, and virus type, method and site of measurement. We included 57 studies across various geographic settings. Past infection with herpesviruses, measured by IgG seropositivity, was generally not associated with dementia risk. A single cohort study rated moderate quality showed an association between varicella zoster virus reactivation (ophthalmic zoster) and incident dementia (HR 2.97; 95%CI, 1.89 to 4.66). Recent infection with, or reactivation of, herpes simplex virus type 1 or type 1/2 unspecified, cytomegalovirus and human herpes virus-6 measured by serum IgM, high titre IgG or clinical disease may be associated with dementia or MCI, though results were inconsistent across studies and overall evidence rated very low quality. Longitudinal population studies with robust repeated virus measurements taken sufficiently proximal to dementia onset are needed to establish whether, when and among whom herpesviruses affect dementia risk.

The validity of dementia diagnoses in routinely collected electronic health records in the United Kingdom: A systematic review

PURPOSE

The purpose of the study is to assess the validity of codes or algorithms used to identify dementia in UK electronic health record (EHR) primary care and hospitalisation databases.

METHODS

Relevant studies were identified by searching the MEDLINE/EMBASE databases from inception to June 2018, hand-searching reference lists, and consulting experts. The search strategy included synonyms for "Dementia", "Europe", and "EHR". Studies were included if they validated dementia diagnoses in UK primary care or hospitalisation databases, irrespective of validation method used. The Quality Assessment for Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 (QUADAS-2) tool was used to assess risk of bias.

RESULTS

From 1469 unique records, 14 relevant studies were included. Thirteen validated individual diagnoses against a reference standard, reporting high estimates of validity. Most reported only the positive predictive value (PPV), with estimates ranging between 0.09 and 1.0 and 0.62 and 0.85 in primary care and hospitalisation databases, respectively. One study performed a rate comparison, indicating good generalisability of dementia diagnoses in The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database to the UK population. Studies were of low methodological quality. As studies were not comparable, no summary validity estimates were produced.

CONCLUSION

While heterogenous across studies, reported validity estimates were generally high. However, the credibility of these estimates is limited by the methodological quality of studies, primarily resulting from insufficient blinding of researchers interpreting the reference test. Inadequate reporting, particularly of the specific codes validated, hindered comparison of estimates across studies. Future validation studies should make use of more robust reference tests, follow established reporting guidelines, and calculate all measures of validity.

Effectiveness of oral rotavirus vaccination in England against rotavirus-confirmed and all-cause acute gastroenteritis

•

Rotarix® had very good vaccine effectiveness (VE) in UK public health use.

•

Two-dose VE against confirmed infection in young children was 77% (95%CI:66–85%)

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The vaccine programme was exceptionally successful (>90% vaccine uptake, high VE)

•

Thus, it is highly likely that most acute gastroenteritis (AGE) was no longer due to rotavirus.

•

This explains the lack of demonstrable VE against all-cause AGE.

Background

The monovalent oral rotavirus vaccine Rotarix® was introduced into the UK infant immunisation programme in 2013. We estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) in the first two years of the programme.

Methods

We used a test-negative case-control design and enhanced national surveillance data for 1869 vaccine-eligible children tested for rotavirus infection to obtain adjusted odds ratios and VE against laboratory-confirmed rotavirus infections. Linked anonymised UK primary care and hospitalisation data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (40,723 children) and random-effects Poisson regression were used in a cohort study to estimate VE against all-cause acute gastroenteritis (AGE) and AGE hospitalisations.

Results

VE against laboratory-confirmed infection was 69% (95% Confidence Interval: 40–84%) for one dose and 77% (95%CI: 66–85%) for two doses. Two-dose VE in children aged <12 months and ≥12 months was 85% (95%CI: 74–91%) and 54% (95%CI: 15–75%), respectively. In contrast, we found no evidence that the vaccine was effective against all-cause AGE (VE = −20%, 95%CI: −36% to −5%), or against AGE hospitalisations (VE = 35%, 95% CI: −86% to 77%).

Conclusions

In this first detailed assessment of VE of the Rotarix® vaccine in the English national programme, we show that Rotarix® was highly effective in preventing laboratory-confirmed rotavirus infection in young children. This provides reassurance about the vaccine’s performance in real-life settings and gives key information for future cost-effectiveness analyses. The high VE against rotavirus-specific AGE, and the exceptionally successful implementation of the national rotavirus vaccine programme (with >90% vaccine coverage), explains the lack of VE against all-cause AGE because most AGE in the post-vaccine era would not have been due to rotavirus, although some underestimation of VE could also have occurred due to differential healthcare utilisation by vaccinated and unvaccinated infants. This highlights the importance of using specific vaccine-preventable endpoints for these scenarios.

Association of herpesviruses and stroke: Systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Herpesviruses induce a range of inflammatory effects potentially contributing to an increased risk of stroke.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate whether patients with infection, or reactivation of, human herpesviruses are at increased stroke risk, compared to those without human herpesviruses.

DATA SOURCES

Six medical databases and grey literature sources from inception to January 2017.

STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Studies where the exposure was any human herpesvirus and the outcome was stroke. We included randomised controlled trials, cohort, case-control, case-crossover and self-controlled case series designs.

METHODS

Meta-analyses when sufficiently homogeneous studies were available. Quality of evidence across studies was assessed.

RESULTS

We identified 5012 publications; 41 met the eligibility criteria. Across cohort and self-controlled case series studies, there was moderate quality evidence that varicella infection in children was associated with a short-term increased stroke risk. Zoster was associated with a 1.5-fold increased stroke risk four weeks following onset (summary estimate: 1.55, 95%CI 1.46-1.65), which resolved after one year. Subgroup analyses suggested post-zoster stroke risk was greater among ophthalmic zoster patients, younger individuals and those not prescribed antivirals. Recent infection/reactivation of cytomegalovirus and herpes simplex viruses, but not past infection, was associated with increased stroke risk; however the evidence across studies was mainly derived from small, very low quality case-control studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Our review shows an increased stroke risk following zoster and suggests that recent infection or reactivation of other herpesviruses increases stroke risk, although better evidence is needed. Herpesviruses are common and potentially preventable; these findings may have implications for reducing stroke burden.

Zoster vaccination inequalities: A population based cohort study using linked data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink

OBJECTIVE

To quantify inequalities in zoster vaccine uptake by determining its association with socio-demographic factors: age, gender, ethnicity, immigration status, deprivation (at Lower-layer Super Output Area-level), care home residence and living arrangements.

METHOD

This population-based cohort study utilised anonymised primary care electronic health records from England (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) linked to deprivation and hospitalisation data. Data from 35,333 individuals from 277 general practices in England and eligible for zoster vaccination during the two-year period (2013-2015) after vaccine introduction were analysed. Logistic regression was used to obtain adjusted odds ratios (aOR) for the association of socio-demographic factors with zoster vaccine uptake for adults aged 70 years (main target group) and adults aged 79 years (catch-up group).

RESULTS

Amongst those eligible for vaccination, 52.4% (n = 18,499) received the vaccine. Socio-demographic factors independently associated with lower zoster vaccine uptake in multivariable analyses were: being older (catch-up group: aged 79 years) aOR = 0.89 (95% confidence interval (CI):0.85-0.93), care home residence (aOR = 0.64 (95%CI: 0.57-0.73)) and living alone (aOR = 0.85 (95%CI: 0.81-0.90)). Uptake decreased with increasing levels of deprivation (p-value for trend<0.0001; aOR most deprived versus least deprived areas = 0.69 (95%CI: 0.64-0.75)). Uptake was also lower amongst those of non-White ethnicities (for example, Black versus White ethnicity: aOR = 0.61 (95%CI: 0.49-0.75)) but was not lower among immigrants after adjusting for ethnicity. Lower uptake was also seen amongst females compared to men in the catch-up group.

CONCLUSIONS

Inequalities in zoster vaccine uptake exist in England; with lower uptake among those of non-White ethnicities, and among those living alone, in a care home and in more deprived areas. Tailored interventions to increase uptake in these social groups should assist in realising the aim of mitigating vaccination inequalities. As care home residents are also at higher risk of zoster, improving the uptake of zoster vaccination in this group will also mitigate inequalities in zoster burden.

Mood Disorders and Risk of Herpes Zoster in 2 Population-Based Case-Control Studies in Denmark and the United Kingdom

We examined the association between mood disorders and risk of herpes zoster in two case-control studies using data from nationwide Danish registries and practices in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink. We included incident zoster cases diagnosed in general practice (using systemic antivirals as a proxy in Denmark) or hospital during 1997-2013 in Denmark (n = 190,671) and during 2000-2013 in the United Kingdom (n = 177,361). We risk-set sampled 4 matched population controls per case. Conditional logistic regression analyses adjusting for zoster risk factors showed that the odds ratios for previous mood disorder among cases versus controls were 1.15 (99% confidence interval (CI): 1.12, 1.19; prevalence 7.1% vs. 6.0%) in Denmark and 1.12 (99% CI: 1.11, 1.14; prevalence 31.6% vs. 29.2%) in the United Kingdom. In Denmark, odds ratios were higher for anxiety (1.23; 99% CI: 1.17, 1.30) and severe stress and adjustment disorder (1.24; 99% CI: 1.18, 1.30) than for depression (1.11; 99% CI: 1.07, 1.14). In the United Kingdom, odds ratios for these conditions were similar: 1.12 (99% CI: 1.10, 1.13), 1.12 (99% CI: 1.10, 1.14), and 1.14 (99% CI: 1.10, 1.19) for depression, anxiety, and severe stress and adjustment disorder, respectively. In conclusion, mood disorders were associated with an increased risk of zoster.

Effectiveness of herpes zoster vaccination in an older United Kingdom population

BACKGROUND

Vaccination against herpes zoster was introduced in the United Kingdom in 2013 for individuals aged 70 years, with a phased catch-up campaign for 71-79 year olds. Vaccine introduction has resulted in a marked fall in incident herpes zoster and in post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN), but formal evaluation of vaccine effectiveness is needed.

METHODS

In a population-based cohort study of older individuals born between 1933 and 1946, we used linked UK anonymised primary care health records for the first three years of the vaccination programme (01/09/2013-31/08/2016) and multivariable Poisson regression to obtain incidence rates and vaccine effectiveness (VE) against zoster and PHN.

RESULTS

Among 516,547 individuals, 21% were vaccinated. Incidence of zoster was 3.15/1000 person-years in vaccinees and 8.80/1000 person-years in unvaccinated individuals. After adjustment, VE was 64% (95%CI = 60-68%) against incident zoster and 81% (95%CI = 61-91%) against PHN, with very similar VE estimates in the routine and catch-up cohorts. VE against zoster was lower in those with a previous history of zoster: 47% (95%CI = 31-58%) versus 64% (95%CI = 60-68%) in those without previous zoster. There was evidence of waning VE over time, from 69% (95%CI = 65-74%) in the first year after vaccination to 45% (95%CI = 29-57%) by the third year.

CONCLUSION

This first formal assessment of VE in the UK zoster vaccination programme demonstrates good effectiveness of zoster vaccine, and very good protection against PHN. The findings provide evidence that VE is similar across the age groups targeted for vaccination in the UK, and on duration of protection of the vaccine in public health use. The study provides key information for decision-makers about the future direction of UK zoster vaccination programme, indicating that the live zoster vaccine may be more cost-effective than estimated previously. It also supports efforts to communicate the benefits of zoster vaccination to address the declining coverage observed across the UK.

Industry interests in gambling research: Lessons learned from other forms of hazardous consumption

Research indicates that the evidential bases for many harm reduction policies targeting hazardous consumptions (including tobacco, alcohol and gambling) have been distorted by commercial industries that derive revenue from such commodities. These distortions are best illustrated by research on tobacco and alcohol, which indicates similar tactics used by industries to determine favourable policy environments through engineering of evidence, among other approaches. Although there is concern that gambling research is similarly vulnerable to commercial interests, the relevant literature lags far behind other fields and the aim of this paper is to increase familiarity with tactics used by industries for influencing research. It summarises the conceptual and empirical bases for expecting conflicts between goals of public health and companies that profit from hazardous consumptions. It also summarises evidence describing practices deployed by tobacco corporations, which include third-party techniques and the selective funding of research to manufacture doubt and deflect attention away from the consequences of smoking. It then reviews both early and emerging evidence indicating similar strategies used by alcohol industry, and uses this literature to view practices of the gambling industry. It argues that parallels regarding selective funding of research and third-party techniques provide grounds for strong concern about commercial influences on gambling research, and implementation of precautionary approaches to management of vested interests.

Population-Level Effects of Human Papillomavirus Vaccination Programs on Infections with Nonvaccine Genotypes

We analyzed human papillomavirus (HPV) prevalences during prevaccination and postvaccination periods to consider possible changes in nonvaccine HPV genotypes after introduction of vaccines that confer protection against 2 high-risk types, HPV16 and HPV18. Our meta-analysis included 9 studies with data for 13,886 girls and women ≤19 years of age and 23,340 women 20-24 years of age. We found evidence of cross-protection for HPV31 among the younger age group after vaccine introduction but little evidence for reductions of HPV33 and HPV45. For the group this same age group, we also found slight increases in 2 nonvaccine high-risk HPV types (HPV39 and HPV52) and in 2 possible high-risk types (HPV53 and HPV73). However, results between age groups and vaccines used were inconsistent, and the increases had possible alternative explanations; consequently, these data provided no clear evidence for type replacement. Continued monitoring of these HPV genotypes is important.

Acute kidney injury and infections in patients taking antihypertensive drugs: a self-controlled case series analysis

Background

The relative risk of acute kidney injury (AKI) following different infections, and whether angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs)/angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) modify the risk, is unclear. We aimed to determine the risks of hospital admission with AKI following infections (urinary tract infection [UTI], lower respiratory tract infection [LRTI], and gastroenteritis) among users of antihypertensive drugs.

Methods

We used UK electronic health records from practices contributing to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked to the Hospital Episode Statistics database. We identified adults initiating ACEIs/ARBs or alternative antihypertensive therapy (β-blockers, calcium channel blockers, or thiazide diuretics) between April 1997 and March 2014 with at least 1 year of primary care registration prior to first prescription, who had a hospital admission for AKI, and who had a primary care record for incident UTI, LRTI, or gastroenteritis. We used a self-controlled case series design to calculate age-adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for AKI during risk periods following acute infection relative to noninfected periods (baseline).

Results

We identified 10,219 eligible new users of ACEIs/ARBs or other antihypertensives with an AKI record. Among these, 2,012 had at least one record for a UTI during follow-up, 2,831 had a record for LRTI, and 651 had a record for gastroenteritis. AKI risk was higher following infection than in baseline noninfectious periods. The rate ratio was highest following gastroenteritis: for the period 1–7 days postinfection, the IRR for AKI following gastroenteritis was 43.4 (95% CI=34.0–55.5), compared with 6.0 following LRTI (95% CI=5.0–7.3), and 9.3 following UTI (95% CI=7.8–11.2). Increased risks were similar for different antihypertensives.

Conclusion

Acute infections are associated with substantially increased transient AKI risk among antihypertensive users, with the highest risk after gastroenteritis. The increase in relative risk is not greater among users of ACEIs/ARBs compared with users of other antihypertensives.

Partner Bereavement and Risk of Herpes Zoster: Results from Two Population-Based Case-Control Studies in Denmark and the United Kingdom

Background.

Psychological stress is commonly thought to increase the risk of herpes zoster by causing immunosuppression. However, epidemiological studies on the topic are sparse and inconsistent. We conducted 2 parallel case-control studies of the association between partner bereavement and risk of zoster using electronic healthcare data covering the entire Danish population and general practices in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink.

Methods.

We included patients with a zoster diagnosis from the primary care or hospital-based setting in 1997–2013 in Denmark (n = 190671) and 2000–2013 in the United Kingdom (n = 150207). We matched up to 4 controls to each case patient by age, sex, and general practice (United Kingdom only) using risk-set sampling. The date of diagnosis was the index date for case patients and their controls. We computed adjusted odds ratios with 99% confidence intervals for previous bereavement among case patients versus controls using conditional logistic regression with results from the 2 settings pooled using random-effects meta-analysis.

Results.

Overall, the adjusted odds ratios for the association between partner bereavement and zoster were 1.05 (99% confidence interval, 1.03–1.07) in Denmark and 1.01 (.98–1.05) in the United Kingdom. The pooled estimates were 0.72, 0.90, 1.10, 1.08, 1.02, 1.04, and 1.03 for bereavement within 0–7, 8–14, 15–30, 31–90, 91–365, 366–1095, and >1095 days before the index date, respectively.

Conclusions.

We found no consistent evidence of an increased risk of zoster after partner death. Initial fluctuations in estimates may be explained by delayed healthcare contact due to the loss.

Do delays in data availability limit the implementation of near real-time vaccine safety surveillance using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink?

Purpose

Near real‐time vaccine safety surveillance (NRTVSS) using electronic health records has been used to detect timely vaccine safety signals. Trial implementation of NRTVSS using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) has shown that there is limited power to detect safety signals for rare events. Delays in recording outcomes and receiving data influence the power and timeliness to identify a signal. Our work aimed to compare how different sources of delays influence power and expected time to signal to implement NRTVSS using CPRD.

Methods

We studied seasonal influenza vaccine/Guillain‐Barré syndrome and performed power and expected time to signal calculations for the 2013‐2014/2014‐2015 seasons. We used the Poisson‐based maximised sequential probability ratio test, which compares observed‐to‐expected events. For each study season, we obtained an average Guillain‐Barré syndrome/seizures age‐sex–adjusted rate from the 5 previous seasons and then used this rate to calculate the expected number of events, assuming a 42‐day risk‐window. Calculations were performed for detecting rate ratios of 1.5 to 10. We compared power and timeliness considering combinations of the presence/absence of delays in recording outcomes and in receiving data. The R‐package Sequential was used.

Results

In general, there was ≥80% power to detect increases in risk of ≥4 at the end of the season. Assuming absence of delays slightly improved power (a maximum increase of 4%) but did not noticeably reduce time to detect a signal.

Conclusion

Removing delays in data availability is insufficient to significantly improve the performance of a NRTVSS system using CPRD. Expansion of CPRD data is required.

Identifying social factors amongst older individuals in linked electronic health records: An assessment in a population based study

Identification and quantification of health inequities amongst specific social groups is a pre-requisite for designing targeted healthcare interventions. This study investigated the recording of social factors in linked electronic health records (EHR) of individuals aged ≥65 years, to assess the potential of these data to identify the social determinants of disease burden and uptake of healthcare interventions. Methodology was developed for ascertaining social factors recorded on or before a pre-specified index date (01/01/2013) using primary care data from Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) linked to hospitalisation and deprivation data in a cross-sectional study. Social factors included: religion, ethnicity, immigration status, small area-level deprivation, place of residence (including communal establishments such as care homes), marital status and living arrangements (e.g. living alone, cohabitation). Each social factor was examined for: completeness of recording including improvements in completeness by using other linked EHR, timeliness of recording for factors that might change over time and their representativeness (compared with English 2011 Census data when available). Data for 591,037 individuals from 389 practices from England were analysed. The completeness of recording varied from 1.6% for immigration status to ~80% for ethnicity. Linkages provided the deprivation data (available for 82% individuals) and improved completeness of ethnicity recording from 55% to 79% (when hospitalisation data were added). Data for ethnicity, deprivation, living arrangements and care home residence were comparable to the Census data. For time-varying variables such as residence and living alone, ~60% and ~35% respectively of those with available data, had this information recorded within the last 5 years of the index date. This work provides methods to identify social factors in EHR relevant to older individuals and shows that factors such as ethnicity, deprivation, not living alone, cohabitation and care home residence can be ascertained using these data. Applying these methodologies to routinely collected data could improve surveillance programmes and allow assessment of health equity in specific healthcare studies.

Association between human herpesvirus infections and dementia or mild cognitive impairment: a systematic review protocol

INTRODUCTION

Persisting neurotropic viruses are proposed to increase the risk of dementia, but evidence of association from robust, adequately powered population studies is lacking. This is essential to inform clinical trials of targeted preventive interventions.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will carry out a comprehensive systematic review of published and grey literature of the association between infection with, reactivation of, vaccination against or treatment of any of the eight human herpesviruses and dementia or mild cognitive impairment. We will search the Cochrane Library, Embase, Global Health, Medline, PsycINFO, Scopus, Web of Science, clinical trials registers, the New York Academy of Medicine Grey Literature Report, Electronic Theses Online Service through the British Library and the ISI Conference Proceedings Citation Index for randomised controlled trials, cohort, caseâ€"control, case crossover or self-controlled case series studies reported in any language up to January 2017. Titles, abstracts and full-text screening will be conducted by two researchers independently. Data will be extracted systematically from eligible studies using a piloted template. We will assess risk of bias of individual studies in line with the Cochrane Collaboration tool. We will conduct a narrative synthesis, grouping studies by exposure and outcome definitions, and will describe any differences by population subgroups and dementia subtypes. We will consider performing meta-analyses if there are adequate numbers of sufficiently homogeneous studies. The overall quality of cumulative evidence will be assessed using selected Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations criteria.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

As this is a review of existing studies, no ethical approval is required. Results will be disseminated through a peer-reviewed publication and at national and international conferences. We anticipate the review will clarify the current extent and quality of evidence for a link between herpesviruses and dementia, identify gaps and inform the direction of future research.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42017054684.

The association between human herpesvirus infections and stroke: a systematic review protocol

INTRODUCTION

After primary infection, human herpesviruses establish latency and persist lifelong. Periodic virus reactivation can lead to serious inflammatory complications. Recent research suggests that herpesvirus reactivation may also be linked to acute stroke. An improved understanding of this relationship is vital to inform public health prevention strategies. We will review the evidence regarding the role of human herpesviruses in triggering stroke.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A systematic literature review of published and grey literature studies with a human herpesvirus (infection or reactivation) as an exposure and stroke as an outcome will be carried out. Randomised controlled trials, cohort, case-control, case crossover and self-controlled case series designs will be eligible; no restrictions will be placed on publication status, language and geographical or healthcare setting. The Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Embase, Global Health, Medline, Scopus and Web of Science will be searched from dates of inception to January 2017. A prespecified search strategy of medical subject headings and free text terms (in the title and abstract) for human herpesviruses AND stroke will be used. Two reviewers will independently screen titles and abstracts for eligible studies, followed by full-text screening. The reviewers will then extract data from the eligible studies using standardised, pilot-tested tables and assess risk of bias in individual studies, in line with the Cochrane Collaboration approach. The data will be synthesised in a narrative format, and meta-analyses considered where there are sufficient data. Quality of evidence will be assessed in line with theGrading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

As this is a systematic review, ethical approval is not required. The results will be submitted for peer-review publication and presented at national conferences. A lay and short summary will be disseminated on appropriate webpages.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42017054502.

A cohort study of low birth weight and health outcomes in the first year of life, Ghana

Objective

To investigate the effect of birth weight on infant mortality, illness and care seeking in rural Ghana.

Methods

Using randomized controlled trial data, we compared infants weighing 2.00–2.49, 1.50–1.99 and < 1.50 kg with non-low-birth-weight infants. We generated adjusted mortality hazard ratios (aHR), adjusted illness rate ratios (aRR) and adjusted odds ratios (aOR) for health-facility admissions and absence of care seeking for four time periods: infancy, the neonatal period, early infancy and late infancy – represented by ages of 0–364, 0–27, 28–182 and 183–364 days, respectively.

Findings

Among 22 906 infants, compared with non-low-birth-weight infants: (i) infants weighing 2.00–2.49, 1.50–1.99 and < 1.50 kg were about two (aHR: 2.13; 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.76–2.59), eight (aHR: 8.21; 95% CI: 6.26–10.76) and 25 (aHR: 25.38; 95% CI: 18.36–35.10) times more likely to die in infancy, respectively; (ii) those born weighing < 1.50 kg were about 48 (aHR: 48.45; 95% CI: 32.81–71.55) and eight (aHR: 8.42; 95% CI: 3.09–22.92) times more likely to die in the neonatal period and late infancy, respectively; (iii) those born weighing 1.50–1.99 kg (aRR: 1.57; 95% CI: 1.27–1.95) or < 1.50 kg (aRR: 1.58; 95% CI: 1.13–2.21) had higher neonatal illness rates; and (iv) for those born weighing 1.50–1.99 kg, care was less likely to be sought in the neonatal period (aOR: 3.30; 95% CI: 1.98–5.48) and early infancy (aOR : 1.74; 95% CI: 1.26–2.39).

Conclusion

For low-birth-weight infants in Ghana, strategies to minimize mortality and improve care seeking are needed.

Risk factors for developing acute kidney injury in older people with diabetes and community-acquired pneumonia: a population-based UK cohort study

Background

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is being increasingly recognised in ageing populations. There are a paucity of data about AKI risk factors among older individuals with diabetes and infections, who are at particularly high risk of AKI. The objective of this study was to evaluate the risk factors for developing acute kidney injury (AKI) amongst older patients with diabetes and community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in England, and whether the impact of underlying kidney function varied with age.

Methods

This was a population-based retrospective cohort study over 7 years (01/04/2004–31/3/2011) using electronic health records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked to Hospital Episode Statistics. The study population comprised individuals with diabetes aged ≥65 years with CAP. Associations between demographic, lifestyle factors, co-morbidities and medications and development of AKI within 28 days of CAP were explored in a logistic regression model.

Results

Among 3471 patients with CAP and complete covariate data, 298 patients developed subsequent AKI. In multivariable analyses, factors found to be independently associated with AKI included: male sex (adjusted odds ratio, aOR: 1.56 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.20–2.04), hypertension (aOR1.36 95% CI 1.01–1.85), being prescribed either angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin-II-receptor-blockers (aOR: 1.59 95% CI: 1.19–2.13), or insulin (aOR: 2.27 95% CI: 1.27–4.05), presence of proteinuria (aOR 1.27 95% CI 0.98–1.63), and low estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). The odds of AKI were more graded amongst older participants aged ≥80 years compared to those of younger age: for eGFR of ≤29 mL/min/1.73m² (vs 60 ml/min/1.73m²) aOR: 5.51 95% CI 3.28–9.27 and for eGFR 30–59 mL/min/1.73m² 1.96 95% CI 1.30–2.96, whilst any eGFR < 60 ml/min/1.73m² was associated with approximately 3-fold increase in the odds of AKI amongst younger individuals (p-value for interaction = 0.007).

Conclusions

The identified risk factors should help primary care and hospital providers identify high risk patients in need of urgent management including more intensive monitoring, and prevention of AKI following pneumonia.

Do influenza and pneumococcal vaccines prevent community-acquired respiratory infections among older people with diabetes and does this vary by chronic kidney disease? A cohort study using electronic health records

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to estimate the effectiveness of influenza and 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccination on reducing the burden of community-acquired lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) among older people with diabetes, and whether this varied by chronic kidney disease (CKD) status.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We used linked UK electronic health records for a retrospective cohort study of 190 492 patients ≥65 years with diabetes mellitus and no history of renal replacement therapy, 1997-2011. We included community-acquired LRTIs managed in primary or secondary care. Infection incidence rate ratios were estimated using the Poisson regression. Pneumococcal vaccine effectiveness (VE) was calculated as (1-effect measure). To estimate influenza VE, a ratio-of-ratios analysis (winter effectiveness/summer effectiveness) was used to address confounding by indication. Final VE estimates were stratified according to estimated glomerular filtration rate and proteinuria status.

RESULTS

Neither influenza nor pneumococcal vaccine uptake varied according to CKD status. Pneumococcal VE was 22% (95% CI 11% to 31%) against community-acquired pneumonia for the first year after vaccination, but was negligible after 5 years. In the ratio-of-ratios analysis, current influenza vaccination had 7% effectiveness for preventing community-acquired LRTI (95% CI 3 to 12). Pneumococcal VE was lower among patients with a history of proteinuria than among patients without proteinuria (p=0.04), but otherwise this study did not identify variation in pneumococcal or influenza VE by markers of CKD.

CONCLUSIONS

The public health benefits of influenza vaccine may be modest among older people with diabetes. Pneumococcal vaccination protection against community-acquired pneumonia declines swiftly: alternative vaccination schedules should be investigated.

Assessing recording delays in general practice records to inform near real-time vaccine safety surveillance using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD)

Purpose

Near real‐time vaccine safety surveillance (NRTVSS) is an option for post‐licensure vaccine safety assessment. NRTVSS requires timely recording of outcomes in the database used. Our main objective was to examine recording delays in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) for outcomes of interest for vaccine safety to inform the feasibility of NRTVSS using these data. We also evaluated completeness of recording and further assessed reporting delays for hospitalized events in CPRD.

Methods

We selected Guillain–Barré syndrome (GBS), Bell's palsy (BP), optic neuritis (ON) and febrile seizures (FS), from January 2005 to June 2014. We assessed recording delays (e.g. due to feedback from specialist referral) in stand‐alone CPRD by comparing the event and system dates and excluding delays >1 year. We used linked CPRD‐hospitalization data to further evaluate delays and completeness of recording in CPRD.

Results

Among 51 220 patients for the stand‐alone CPRD analysis (GBS: n = 830; BP: n = 12 602; ON: n = 1720; and FS: n = 36 236), most had a record entered within 1 month of the event date (GBS: 73.6%; BP: 93.4%; ON: 76.2%; and FS: 85.6%). A total of 13 482 patients, with a first record in hospital, were included for the analysis of linked data (GBS: n = 678; BP: n = 4060; ON: n = 485; and FS: n = 8321). Of these, <50% had a record in CPRD after 1 year (GBS: 41.3%; BP: 22.1%; ON: 22.4%; and FS: 41.8%).

Conclusion

This work shows that most diagnoses in CPRD for the conditions examined were recorded with delays of ≤30 days, making NRTVSS possible. The pattern of delays was condition‐specific and could be used to adjust for delays in the NRTVSS analysis. Despite low sensitivity of recording, implementing NRTVSS in CPRD is worthwhile and could be carried out, at least on a trial basis, for events of interest. © 2017 The Authors. Pharmacoepidemiology & Drug Safety Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Impact of the national rotavirus vaccination programme on acute gastroenteritis in England and associated costs averted

BACKGROUND

Introduction of infant oral rotavirus vaccination in the UK in July 2013 has resulted in decreased hospitalisations and Emergency Department (ED) visits for acute gastroenteritis (AGE), for both adults and children. We investigated reductions in AGE incidence seen in primary care in the two years after vaccine introduction, and estimated the healthcare costs averted across healthcare settings in the first year of the vaccination programme.

METHODS

We used primary care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink and age-stratified time-series analyses to derive adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRR_a) for AGE in the first two years of the post-vaccination era (July 2013-April 2015) compared to the pre-vaccination era (July 2008-June 2013). We estimated cases averted among children aged <5years in the first year of the vaccination programme by comparing observed numbers of AGE cases in 2013-2014 to numbers predicted from the time-series models. We then estimated the healthcare costs averted for general practice consultations, ED visits and hospitalisations.

RESULTS

In general practice, AGE rates in infants (the target group for vaccination) decreased by 15% overall after vaccine introduction (IRR_a=0.85; 95%CI=0.76-0.95), and by 41% in the months of historically high rotavirus circulation (IRR_a=0.59; 95%CI=0.53-0.66). Rates also decreased in other young children and to a lesser degree in older individuals, indicating herd immunity. Across all three settings (general practice, EDs, and hospitalisations) an estimated 87,376 (95% prediction interval: 62,588-113,561) AGE visits by children aged <5years were averted in 2013-14, associated with an estimated £12.5million (9,209-16,198) reduction in healthcare costs.

CONCLUSIONS

The marked decreases in the general practice AGE burden after rotavirus vaccine introduction mirror decreases seen in other UK healthcare settings. Overall, these decreases are associated with substantial averted healthcare costs.

Recording of hospitalizations for acute exacerbations of COPD in UK electronic health care records

BACKGROUND

Accurate identification of hospitalizations for acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) within electronic health care records is important for research, public health, and to inform health care utilization and service provision. We aimed to develop a strategy to identify hospitalizations for AECOPD in secondary care data and to investigate the validity of strategies to identify hospitalizations for AECOPD in primary care data.

METHODS

We identified patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) with linked Hospital Episodes Statistics (HES) data. We used discharge summaries for recent hospitalizations for AECOPD to develop a strategy to identify the recording of hospitalizations for AECOPD in HES. We then used the HES strategy as a reference standard to investigate the positive predictive value (PPV) and sensitivity of strategies for identifying AECOPD using general practice CPRD data. We tested two strategies: 1) codes for hospitalization for AECOPD and 2) a code for AECOPD other than hospitalization on the same day as a code for hospitalization due to unspecified reason.

RESULTS

In total, 27,182 patients with COPD were included. Our strategy to identify hospitalizations for AECOPD in HES had a sensitivity of 87.5%. When compared with HES, using a code suggesting hospitalization for AECOPD in CPRD resulted in a PPV of 50.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] 48.5%-51.8%) and a sensitivity of 4.1% (95% CI 3.9%-4.3%). Using a code for AECOPD and a code for hospitalization due to unspecified reason resulted in a PPV of 43.3% (95% CI 42.3%-44.2%) and a sensitivity of 5.4% (95% CI 5.1%-5.7%).

CONCLUSION

Hospitalization for AECOPD can be identified with high sensitivity in the HES database. The PPV and sensitivity of strategies to identify hospitalizations for AECOPD in primary care data alone are very poor. Primary care data alone should not be used to identify hospitalizations for AECOPD. Instead, researchers should use data that are linked to data from secondary care.

Bronchiectasis and the risk of cardiovascular disease: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

There are limited data on the burden of cardiovascular comorbidities in people with bronchiectasis. Our cross-sectional study estimates the burden of pre-existing diagnoses of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke in people with bronchiectasis compared with the general population. The historical cohort study investigates if individuals with bronchiectasis are at increased risk of incident CHD and stroke events.

METHODS

We used primary care electronic records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. The cross-sectional study used logistic regression to quantify the association between bronchiectasis and recorded diagnoses of CHD or stroke. Cox regression was used to investigate if people with bronchiectasis experienced increased incident CHD and strokes compared with the general population, adjusting for age, sex, smoking habit and other risk factors for cardiovascular disease.

RESULTS

Pre-existing diagnoses of CHD (OR 1.33, 95% CI 1.25 to 1.41) and stroke (OR 1.92, 95% CI 1.85 to 2.01) were higher in people with bronchiectasis compared with those without bronchiectasis, after adjusting for age, sex, smoking and risk factors for cardiovascular disease. The rate of first CHD and stroke were also higher in people with bronchiectasis (HR for CHD 1.44 (95% CI 1.27 to 1.63) and HR for stroke 1.71 (95% CI 1.54 to 1.90)).

CONCLUSION

The risk of CHD and stroke are higher among people with bronchiectasis compared with the general population. An increased awareness of these cardiovascular comorbidities in this population is needed to provide a more integrated approach to the care of these patients.

Complementary medicine use among people living with HIV/AIDS in Victoria, Australia: practices, attitudes and perceptions

There is limited evidence suggesting the underlying reasons for the use of complementary and alternative medicines (CAMs) by people with HIV/AIDS, or individual attitudes and beliefs about the use of CAMs. Using focus groups and a survey with 151 individuals attending the HIV Clinics at The Alfred Hospital, Melbourne, we aimed to provide insights into factors that influence the use of CAMs among people living with HIV/AIDS. Roughly half (49%) of the participants had used CAMs to manage their HIV/AIDs. Users of CAMs utilized a wide range of treatments in managing their condition, but costs of the CAMs meant that users were not necessarily able to use them as much as they might have liked. Use of CAMs was based on a desire to find something beneficial rather than on being dissatisfied with conventional medicine. Further research is needed into (a) the effects of CAMs and (b) the enhancement of communication and collaboration between patients, doctors and complementary medicine practitioners.

Methodological challenges when carrying out research on CKD and AKI using routine electronic health records

Research regarding chronic kidney disease (CKD) and acute kidney injury (AKI) using routinely collected data presents particular challenges. The availability, consistency, and quality of renal data in electronic health records has changed over time with developments in policy, practice incentives, clinical knowledge, and associated guideline changes. Epidemiologic research may be affected by patchy data resulting in an unrepresentative sample, selection bias, misclassification, and confounding by factors associated with testing for and recognition of reduced kidney function. We systematically explore the issues that may arise in study design and interpretation when using routine data sources for CKD and AKI research. First, we discuss how access to health care and management of patients with CKD may have an impact on defining the target population for epidemiologic study. We then consider how testing and recognition of CKD and AKI may lead to biases and how to potentially mitigate against these. Illustrative examples from our own research within the UK are used to clarify key points. Any research using routine renal data has to consider the local clinical context to achieve meaningful interpretation of the study findings.

Quantification of risk factors for postherpetic neuralgia in herpes zoster patients: A cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate risk factors for postherpetic neuralgia, the neuropathic pain that commonly follows herpes zoster.

METHODS

Using primary care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, we fitted multivariable logistic regression models to investigate potential risk factors for postherpetic neuralgia (defined as pain ≥90 days after zoster, based on diagnostic or prescription codes), including demographic characteristics, comorbidities, and characteristics of the acute zoster episode. We also assessed whether the effects were modified by antiviral use.

RESULTS

Of 119,413 zoster patients, 6,956 (5.8%) developed postherpetic neuralgia. Postherpetic neuralgia risk rose steeply with age, most sharply between 50 and 79 years (adjusted odds ratio [OR] for a 10-year increase, 1.70, 99% confidence interval 1.63-1.78). Postherpetic neuralgia risk was higher in women (6.3% vs 5.1% in men: OR 1.19, 1.10-1.27) and those with severely immunosuppressive conditions, including leukemia (13.7%: 2.07, 1.08-3.96) and lymphoma (12.7%: 2.45, 1.53-3.92); autoimmune conditions, including rheumatoid arthritis (9.1%: 1.20, 0.99-1.46); and other comorbidities, including asthma and diabetes. Current and ex-smokers, as well as underweight and obese individuals, were at increased risk of postherpetic neuralgia. Antiviral use was not associated with postherpetic neuralgia (OR 1.04, 0.97-1.11). However, the increased risk associated with severe immunosuppression appeared less pronounced in patients given antivirals.

CONCLUSIONS

Postherpetic neuralgia risk was increased for a number of patient characteristics and comorbidities, notably with age and among those with severe immunosuppression. As zoster vaccination is contraindicated for patients with severe immunosuppression, strategies to prevent zoster in these patients, which could include the new subunit zoster vaccine, are an increasing priority.

Rheumatoid Arthritis and Incidence of Twelve Initial Presentations of Cardiovascular Disease: A Population Record-Linkage Cohort Study in England

INTRODUCTION

While rheumatoid arthritis is an established risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), our knowledge of how the pattern of risk varies for different cardiovascular phenotypes is incomplete. The association between rheumatoid arthritis and the initial presentation of 12 types of CVDs were examined in a contemporary population of men and women of a wide age range.

METHODS

CALIBER data, which links primary care, hospital and mortality data in England, was analysed. A cohort of people aged ≥18 years and without history of CVD was assembled and included all patients with prospectively recorded rheumatoid arthritis from January 1997, until March 2010, matched with up to ten people without rheumatoid arthritis by age, sex and general practice. The associations between rheumatoid arthritis and the initial presentation of 12 types of CVDs were estimated using multivariable random effects Poisson regression models.

RESULTS

The analysis included 12,120 individuals with rheumatoid arthritis and 121,191 comparators. Of these, 2,525 patients with and 18,146 without rheumatoid arthritis developed CVDs during a median of 4.2 years of follow-up. Patients with rheumatoid arthritis had higher rates of myocardial infarction (adjusted incidence ratio [IRR] = 1.43, 95%CI 1.21-1.70), unheralded coronary death (IRR = 1.60, 95%CI 1.18-2.18), heart failure (IRR = 1.61, 95%CI 1.43-1.83), cardiac arrest (HR = 2.26, 95%CI 1.69-3.02) and peripheral arterial disease (HR = 1.36, 95%CI 1.14-1.62); and lower rates of stable angina (HR = 0.83, 95%CI 0.73-0.95). There was no evidence of association with cerebrovascular diseases, abdominal aortic aneurysm or unstable angina, or of interactions with sex or age.

CONCLUSIONS

The observed associations with some but not all types of CVDs inform both clinical practice and the selection of cardiovascular endpoints for trials and for the development of prognostic models for patients with rheumatoid arthritis.

Validation of the Recording of Acute Exacerbations of COPD in UK Primary Care Electronic Healthcare Records

Background

Acute Exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD) identified from electronic healthcare records (EHR) are important for research, public health and to inform healthcare utilisation and service provision. However, there is no standardised method of identifying AECOPD in UK EHR. We aimed to validate the recording of AECOPD in UK EHR.

Methods

We randomly selected 1385 patients with COPD from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. We selected dates of possible AECOPD based on 15 different algorithms between January 2004 and August 2013. Questionnaires were sent to GPs asking for confirmation of their patients’ AECOPD on the dates identified and for any additional relevant information. Responses were reviewed independently by two respiratory physicians. Positive predictive value (PPV) and sensitivity were calculated.

Results

The response rate was 71.3%. AECOPD diagnostic codes, lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) codes, and prescriptions of antibiotics and oral corticosteroids (OCS) together for 5–14 days had a high PPV (>75%) for identifying AECOPD. Symptom-based algorithms and prescription of antibiotics or OCS alone had lower PPVs (60–75%). A combined strategy of antibiotic and OCS prescriptions for 5–14 days, or LRTI or AECOPD code resulted in a PPV of 85.5% (95% CI, 82.7–88.3%) and a sensitivity of 62.9% (55.4–70.4%).

Conclusion

Using a combination of diagnostic and therapy codes, the validity of AECOPD identified from EHR can be high. These strategies are useful for understanding health-care utilisation for AECOPD, informing service provision and for researchers. These results highlight the need for common coding strategies to be adopted in primary care to allow easy and accurate identification of events.

Near real-time vaccine safety surveillance using electronic health records-a systematic review of the application of statistical methods

PURPOSE

Pre-licensure studies have limited ability to detect rare adverse events (AEs) to vaccines, requiring timely post-licensure studies. With the increasing availability of electronic health records (EHR) near real-time vaccine safety surveillance using these data has emerged as an option. We reviewed methods currently used to inform development of similar systems for countries considering their introduction.

METHODS

Medline, EMBASE and Web of Science were searched, with additional searches of conference abstract books. Questionnaires were sent to organizations worldwide to ascertain unpublished studies. Eligible studies used EHR and regularly assessed pre-specified AE to vaccine(s). Key features of studies were compared descriptively.

RESULTS

From 2779 studies, 31 were included from the USA (23), UK (6), and Taiwan and New Zealand (1 each). These were published/conducted between May 2005 and April 2015. Thirty-eight different vaccines were studied, focusing mainly on influenza (47.4%), especially 2009 H1N1 vaccines. Forty-six analytic approaches were used, reflecting frequency of EHR updates and the AE studied. Poisson-based maximized sequential probability ratio test was the most common (43.5%), followed by its binomial (23.9%) and conditional versions (10.9%). Thirty-seven of 49 analyses (75.5%) mentioned control for confounding, using an adjusted expected rate (51.4% of those adjusting), stratification (16.2%) or a combination of a self-controlled design and stratification (13.5%). Guillain-Barré syndrome (11.9%), meningitis/encephalitis/myelitis (11.9%) and seizures (10.8%) were studied most often.

CONCLUSIONS

Near real-time vaccine safety surveillance using EHR has developed over the past decade but is not yet widely used. As more countries have access to EHR, it will be important that appropriate methods are selected, considering the data available and AE of interest.

Continuing reductions in HPV 16/18 in a population with high coverage of bivalent HPV vaccination in England: an ongoing cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES

The human papillomavirus (HPV) immunisation programme in England was introduced in 2008. Monitoring changes in type-specific HPV prevalence allows assessment of the population impact of this vaccination programme.

METHODS

Residual vulva-vaginal swab specimens were collected from young sexually active women (aged 16-24 years) attending for chlamydia screening across England. Specimens were collected between 2010 and 2013 for type-specific HPV-DNA testing. HPV prevalence was compared to a similar survey conducted in 2008 prior to the introduction of HPV vaccination.

RESULTS

A total of 7321 specimens collected in the postvaccination period, and 2354 specimens from the prevaccination period were included in this analysis. Among the individuals aged 16-18 years, with an estimated vaccination coverage of 67%, the prevalence of HPV16/18 infection decreased from 17.6% in 2008 to 6.1% in the postvaccination period. Within the postvaccination period, there was a trend towards lower HPV16/18 prevalence with higher vaccination coverage and increasing time since vaccine introduction from 8.5% in the period 2-3 years postvaccination to 4.0% in the period 4-5 years postvaccination. The prevalence of HPV31 reduced from 3.7% in the prevaccination period to 0.9% after vaccine introduction, although this no longer reached statistical significance after additional consideration of the uncertainty due to the assay change. Smaller reductions were seen in the individuals aged 19-21 years with lower estimated vaccination coverage, but there was no evidence of a reduction in the older unvaccinated women. Some overall increase in non-vaccine types was seen in the youngest age groups (ORs (95% CI); 1.3 (1.0 to 1.7) and 1.5 (1.1 to 2.0) for individuals aged 16-18 and 19-21 years, respectively, when adjusted for known population changes and the change in assay) although this should be interpreted with caution given the potential unmasking effect.

CONCLUSIONS

These data demonstrate a reduction in the HPV vaccine types in the age group with the highest HPV vaccination coverage.

Associations between polymyalgia rheumatica and giant cell arteritis and 12 cardiovascular diseases

Objectives

Evidence of the association of polymyalgia rheumatica (PMR) and giant cell arteritis (GCA) with the full range of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) is limited. We examined their relationship with the first clinical presentation of the 12 most common CVDs in an unselected population-based cohort of men and women.

Methods

We analysed CArdiovascular disease research using LInked Bespoke studies and Electronic health Records (CALIBER) data, which links primary care and hospital and mortality data in England, from 1997 to 2010. We assembled a cohort of men and women initially free from CVD at baseline and included all patients with PMR and/or GCA (PMR/GCA) diagnosis, matched by age, sex and general practice with up to 10 individuals without PMR/GCA. Random effects Poisson regression analysis was used to study the association between PMR/GCA and the initial presentation of 12 types of CVDs.

Results

The analysis included 9776 patients with PMR only, 1164 with GCA only, 627 with PMR and GCA and 105 504 without either condition. During a median of 3.14 years of follow-up 2787 (24.1%) individuals with PMR/GCA and 21 559 (20.4%) without PMR/GCA developed CVDs. Patients with PMR/GCA had lower rates of unheralded coronary death (3.18 vs 3.61/1000 person-years; adjusted incidence ratio 0.79, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.95), transient ischaemic attack (5.11 vs 5.61/1000 person-years; 0.67, 95% CI 0.54 to 0.84) and coronary and death composite (24.17 vs 25.80/1000 person-years; 0.90, 95% CI 0.82 to 0.98). No associations were observed for other CVDs or cerebrovascular diseases, and in patients with only PMR or GCA. No evidence of interaction by age or sex was found. Estimates decreased with longer PMR/GCA duration and findings were robust to multiple sensitivity analyses.

Conclusions

In this large contemporary population-based cohort the presence of PMR and/or GCA was not associated with an increased risk of CVDs or cerebrovascular diseases regardless of PMR/GCA duration.

Zoster vaccination is associated with a reduction of zoster in elderly patients with chronic kidney disease

Background

Growing epidemiological evidence demonstrates increased zoster risks in people with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Study objectives were to determine zoster vaccine effectiveness in individuals with CKD in pragmatic use.

Methods

A population-based cohort study was undertaken in a 5% random sample of US Medicare from 2007 to 2009 involving 766 330 eligible individuals aged ≥65 years who were (29 785) and were not (736 545) exposed to the zoster vaccine. Incidence rates for zoster in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals and hazard ratios for zoster comparing vaccinated with unvaccinated were determined for individuals with CKD. Time-updated Cox proportional hazards models were used, adjusting for relevant confounders.

Results

CKD was present in 183 762 (24%) of individuals (15% of vaccinees). Adjusted vaccine effectiveness [95% confidence intervals (CIs)] in individuals with CKD was 0.49 (0.36–0.65). The adjusted vaccine effectiveness in participants with both CKD and diabetes mellitus was 0.46 (95% CI 0.09–0.68). Vaccine effectiveness estimates were similar to those previously reported for the general population [vaccine effectiveness 0.48 (95% CI 0.39–0.56)].

Conclusions

Zoster vaccine is effective against incident zoster in older individuals with CKD. Extra efforts are warranted to increase vaccine uptake in individuals with CKD given the known low uptake in these higher risk individuals.

Improved incidence estimates from linked vs. stand-alone electronic health records

OBJECTIVE

Electronic health records are widely used for public health research, and linked data sources are increasingly available. The added value of using linked records over stand-alone data has not been quantified for common conditions such as community-acquired pneumonia (CAP).

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

Our cohort comprised English patients aged ≥65 years from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, eligible for record linkage to Hospital Episode Statistics. Stand-alone general practice (GP) records were used to calculate CAP incidence over time using population-averaged Poisson regression. Incidence was then recalculated for the same patients using their linked GP-hospital admission data. Results of the two analyses were compared.

RESULTS

Over 900,000 patients were included in each analysis. Population-averaged CAP incidence was 39% higher using the linked data than stand-alone data. This difference grew over time from 7% in 1997 to 83% by 2010. An increasingly larger number of pneumonia events were recorded in the hospital admission data compared to the GP data over time.

CONCLUSION

Use of primary or secondary care data in isolation may not give accurate incidence estimates for important infections in older populations. Further work is needed to establish the extent of this finding in other diseases, age groups, and populations.

Risk factors for hospital admission in the 28 days following a community-acquired pneumonia diagnosis in older adults, and their contribution to increasing hospitalisation rates over time: a cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To determine factors associated with hospitalisation after community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) among older adults in England, and to investigate how these factors have contributed to increasing hospitalisations over time.

DESIGN

Cohort study.

SETTING

Primary and secondary care in England.

POPULATION

39,211 individuals from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, who were eligible for linkage to Hospital Episode Statistics and mortality data, were aged ≥ 65 and had at least 1 CAP episode between April 1998 and March 2011.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The association between hospitalisation within 28 days of CAP diagnosis (a 'post-CAP' hospitalisation) and a wide range of comorbidities, frailty factors, medications and vaccinations. We examined the role of these factors in post-CAP hospitalisation trends. We also looked at trends in post-CAP mortality and length of hospitalisation over the study period.

RESULTS

14 comorbidities, 5 frailty factors and 4 medications/vaccinations were associated with hospitalisation (of 18, 12 and 7 considered, respectively). Factors such as chronic lung disease, severe renal disease and diabetes were associated with increased likelihood of hospitalisation, whereas factors such as recent influenza vaccination and a recent antibiotic prescription decreased the odds of hospitalisation. Despite adjusting for these and other factors, the average predicted probability of hospitalisation after CAP rose markedly from 57% (1998-2000) to 86% (2009-2010). Duration of hospitalisation and 28-day mortality decreased over the study period.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk factors we describe enable identification of patients at increased likelihood of post-CAP hospitalisation and thus in need of proactive case management. Our analyses also provide evidence that while comorbidities and frailty factors contributed to increasing post-CAP hospitalisations in recent years, the trend appears to be largely driven by changes in service provision and patient behaviour.

Changes in the incidence, prevalence and mortality of bronchiectasis in the UK from 2004 to 2013: a population-based cohort study

There is a paucity of data on incidence, prevalence and mortality associated with non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis.Using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink for participants registered between January 1, 2004 and December 31, 2013, we determined incidence, prevalence and mortality associated with bronchiectasis in the UK and investigated changes over time.The incidence and point prevalence of bronchiectasis increased yearly during the study period. Across all age groups, the incidence in women increased from 21.2 per 100 000 person-years in 2004 to 35.2 per 100 000 person-years in 2013 and in men from 18.2 per 100 000 person-years in 2004 to 26.9 per 100 000 person-years in 2013. The point prevalence in women increased from 350.5 per 100 000 in 2004 to 566.1 per 100 000 in 2013 and in men from 301.2 per 100 000 in 2004 to 485.5 per 100 000 in 2013. Comparing morality rates in women and men with bronchiectasis in England and Wales (n=11 862) with mortality rates in the general population from Office of National Statistics data showed that in women the age-adjusted mortality rate for the bronchiectasis population was 1437.7 per 100 000 and for the general population 635.9 per 100 000 (comparative mortality figure of 2.26). In men, the age-adjusted mortality rate for the bronchiectasis population was 1914.6 per 100 000 and for the general population 895.2 per 100 000 (comparative mortality figure of 2.14).Bronchiectasis is surprisingly common and is increasing in incidence and prevalence in the UK, particularly in older age groups. Bronchiectasis is associated with a markedly increased mortality.

Improving paediatric outreach services for urban Aboriginal children through partnerships: views of community-based service providers

BACKGROUND

In Australia, Aboriginal children experience significantly poorer health outcomes compared with non-Aboriginal children. Health policies aimed at improving Aboriginal health outcomes include interventions in the early childhood period. There is a need for government health services to work in partnership with Aboriginal people and other services to achieve the highest level of health possible for Aboriginal children, who often require a range of services to meet complex needs.

AIM

This paper describes the views of service providers on how paediatric outreach services work in partnership with other services, Aboriginal families and the community and how those partnerships could be improved to maximize health outcomes for children.

METHODS

In-depth, semi-structured interviews and focus groups were conducted with managers and service providers over a 6-week period in 2010. The views and suggestions of participants were documented and a thematic analysis was undertaken.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Analysis of two focus groups with seven service providers and five individual interviews with service managers resulted in the identification of four themes: (i) using informal and formal ways of working; (ii) cultivating effective relationships; (iii) demonstrating cultural sensitivity; and (iv) forging strong leadership. Use of formal and informal approaches facilitated effective relationships between service providers and Aboriginal families and communities. Partnerships with the community were founded on a culturally appropriate model of care that recognized a holistic approach to health and wellness. Leadership emerged as an essential component of effective partnerships, cultivating the ethos of the workplace and creating an environment where collaboration is supported.

CONCLUSION

Culturally appropriate child health services, which utilize effective relationships and employ a range of informal and formal collaboration with other services and community members, are well positioned to implement health policy and improve access to services for Aboriginal children with better health outcomes as a result.

CKD and the risk of acute, community-acquired infections among older people with diabetes mellitus: a retrospective cohort study using electronic health records

Background

Hospital admissions for community-acquired infection are increasing rapidly in the United Kingdom, particularly among older individuals, possibly reflecting an increasing prevalence of comorbid conditions such as chronic kidney disease (CKD). This study describes associations between CKD (excluding patients treated by dialysis or transplantation) and community-acquired infection incidence among older people with diabetes mellitus.

Study Design

Retrospective cohort study using primary care records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked to Hospital Episode Statistics admissions data.

Setting & Participants

191,709 patients 65 years or older with diabetes mellitus and no history of renal replacement therapy, United Kingdom, 1997 to 2011.

Predictor

Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and history of proteinuria.

Outcomes

Incidence of community-acquired lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs, with pneumonia as a subset) and sepsis, diagnosed in primary or secondary care, excluding hospital admissions from time at risk.

Measurements

Poisson regression was used to calculate incidence rate ratios (IRRs) adjusted for age, sex, smoking status, comorbid conditions, and characteristics of diabetes. Estimates for associations of eGFR with infection were adjusted for proteinuria, and vice versa.

Results

Strong graded associations between lower eGFRs and infection were observed. Compared with patients with eGFRs ≥ 60 mL/min/1.73 m², fully adjusted IRRs for pneumonia among those with eGFRs < 15, 15 to 29, 30 to 44, and 45 to 59 mL/min/1.73 m² were 3.04 (95% CI, 2.42-3.83), 1.73 (95% CI, 1.57-1.92), 1.19 (95% CI, 1.11-1.28), and 0.95 (95% CI, 0.89-1.01), respectively. Associations between lower eGFRs and sepsis were stronger, with fully adjusted IRRs up to 5.56 (95% CI, 3.90-7.94). Those associations with LRTI were weaker but still clinically relevant at up to 1.47 (95% CI, 1.34-1.62). In fully adjusted models, a history of proteinuria remained an independent marker of increased infection risk for LRTI, pneumonia, and sepsis (IRRs of 1.07 [95% CI, 1.05-1.09], 1.26 [95% CI, 1.19-1.33], and 1.33 [95% CI, 1.20-1.47]).

Limitations

Patients without creatinine results were excluded.

Conclusions

Strategies to prevent infection among people with CKD are needed.

Are pre-existing markers of chronic kidney disease associated with short-term mortality following acute community-acquired pneumonia and sepsis? A cohort study among older people with diabetes using electronic health records

Background

We aimed to examine whether pre-existing impaired estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and proteinuria were associated with mortality following community-acquired pneumonia or sepsis among people aged ≥65 years with diabetes mellitus, without end-stage renal disease.

Methods

Patients were followed up from onset of first community-acquired pneumonia or sepsis episode in a cohort study using large, linked electronic health databases. Follow-up was for up to 90 days, unlimited by hospital discharge. We used generalized linear models with log link, normal distribution and robust standard errors to calculate risk ratios (RRs) for all-cause 28- and 90-day mortality according to two markers of chronic kidney disease: eGFR and proteinuria.

Results

All-cause mortality among the 4743 patients with pneumonia was 29.6% after 28 days and 37.4% after 90 days. Among the 1058 patients with sepsis, all-cause 28- and 90-day mortality were 35.6 and 44.2%, respectively. eGFR <30 mL/min/1.73 m² was a risk marker of higher 28-day mortality for pneumonia (RR 1.27: 95% CI 1.12–1.43) and sepsis (RR 1.32: 95% CI 1.07–1.64), adjusted for age, sex, socio-economic status, smoking status and co-morbidities. Neither moderately impaired eGFR nor proteinuria were associated with short-term mortality following either infection.

Conclusions

People with pre-existing low eGFR but not on dialysis are at higher risk of death following pneumonia and sepsis. This association was not explained by existing co-morbidities. These patients need to be carefully monitored to prevent modifiable causes of death.

HIV among people who inject drugs in the Middle East and North Africa: systematic review and data synthesis

BACKGROUND

It is perceived that little is known about the epidemiology of HIV infection among people who inject drugs (PWID) in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). The primary objective of this study was to assess the status of the HIV epidemic among PWID in MENA by describing HIV prevalence and incidence. Secondary objectives were to describe the risk behavior environment and the HIV epidemic potential among PWID, and to estimate the prevalence of injecting drug use in MENA.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

This was a systematic review following the PRISMA guidelines and covering 23 MENA countries. PubMed, Embase, regional and international databases, as well as country-level reports were searched up to December 16, 2013. Primary studies reporting (1) the prevalence/incidence of HIV, other sexually transmitted infections, or hepatitis C virus (HCV) among PWIDs; or (2) the prevalence of injecting or sexual risk behaviors, or HIV knowledge among PWID; or (3) the number/proportion of PWID in MENA countries, were eligible for inclusion. The quality, quantity, and geographic coverage of the data were assessed at country level. Risk of bias in predefined quality domains was described to assess the quality of available HIV prevalence measures. After multiple level screening, 192 eligible reports were included in the review. There were 197 HIV prevalence measures on a total of 58,241 PWID extracted from reports, and an additional 226 HIV prevalence measures extracted from the databases. We estimated that there are 626,000 PWID in MENA (range: 335,000-1,635,000, prevalence of 0.24 per 100 adults). We found evidence of HIV epidemics among PWID in at least one-third of MENA countries, most of which are emerging concentrated epidemics and with HIV prevalence overall in the range of 10%-15%. Some of the epidemics have however already reached considerable levels including some of the highest HIV prevalence among PWID globally (87.1% in Tripoli, Libya). The relatively high prevalence of sharing needles/syringes (18%-28% in the last injection), the low levels of condom use (20%-54% ever condom use), the high levels of having sex with sex workers and of men having sex with men (15%-30% and 2%-10% in the last year, respectively), and of selling sex (5%-29% in the last year), indicate a high injecting and sexual risk environment. The prevalence of HCV (31%-64%) and of sexually transmitted infections suggest high levels of risk behavior indicative of the potential for more and larger HIV epidemics.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study identified a large volume of HIV-related biological and behavioral data among PWID in the MENA region. The coverage and quality of the data varied between countries. There is robust evidence for HIV epidemics among PWID in multiple countries, most of which have emerged within the last decade and continue to grow. The lack of sufficient evidence in some MENA countries does not preclude the possibility of hidden epidemics among PWID in these settings. With the HIV epidemic among PWID in overall a relatively early phase, there is a window of opportunity for prevention that should not be missed through the provision of comprehensive programs, including scale-up of harm reduction services and expansion of surveillance systems.

Quantification of risk factors for herpes zoster: population based case-control study

OBJECTIVES

To quantify the effects of possible risk factors for herpes zoster at different ages.

DESIGN

Case-control study.

SETTING

UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink primary care data.

PARTICIPANTS

144 959 adults diagnosed with zoster between 2000 and 2011; 549,336 age, sex, and practice matched controls.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Conditional logistic regression was used to generate adjusted odds ratios to estimate the strength of association of each potential risk factor with zoster and assess effect modification by age.

RESULTS

The median age of the cases and controls was 62 years. Factors associated with increased risk of zoster included rheumatoid arthritis (3111 (2.1%) v 8029 (1.5%); adjusted odds ratio 1.46, 99% confidence interval 1.38 to 1.55), inflammatory bowel disease (1851 (1.3%) v 5118 (0.9%); 1.36, 1.26 to 1.46), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (6815 (4.7%) v 20 201 (3.7%); 1.32, 1.27 to 1.37), asthma (10 243 (7.1%) v 31 865 (5.8%); 1.21, 1.17 to 1.25), chronic kidney disease (8724 (6.0%) v 29 437 (5.4%); 1.14, 1.09 to 1.18), and depression (6830 (4.7%) v 22 052 (4.0%); 1.15, 1.10 to 1.20). Type 1, but not type 2, diabetes showed some association with zoster (adjusted odds ratio 1.27, 1.07 to 1.50). The relative effects of many assessed risk factors were larger in younger patients. Patients with severely immunosuppressive conditions were at greatest risk of zoster-for example, patients with lymphoma (adjusted odds ratio 3.90, 3.21 to 4.74) and myeloma (2.16, 1.84 to 2.53), who are not eligible for zoster vaccination.

CONCLUSIONS

A range of conditions were associated with increased risk of zoster. In general, the increased risk was proportionally greater in younger age groups. Current vaccines are contraindicated in people at the greatest risk of zoster, highlighting the need for alternative risk reduction strategies in these groups.

New estimates of the burden of acute community-acquired infections among older people with diabetes mellitus: a retrospective cohort study using linked electronic health records

AIM

To describe the incidence of acute community-acquired infections (lower respiratory tract infections, urinary tract infections and sepsis) among the UK population aged ≥65 years with diabetes mellitus, and all-cause 28-day hospital admission rates and mortality.

METHODS

We used electronic primary care records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, linked to death certificates and Hospital Episode Statistics admission data, to conduct a retrospective cohort study from 1997 to 2011.

RESULTS

Among the 218 805 older people with diabetes there was a high burden of community-acquired infection, lower respiratory tract infections having the highest incidence (crude rate: 152.7/1000 person-years) followed by urinary tract infections (crude rates 51.4 and 147.9/1000 person-years for men and women, respectively). The incidence of all infections increased over time, which appeared to be driven by the population's changing age structure. Most patients diagnosed with pneumonia and sepsis were hospitalized on the same day (77.8 and 75.1%, respectively). For lower respiratory tract infections and urinary tract infections, a large proportion of 28-day hospitalizations were after the day of diagnosis (39.1 and 44.3%, respectively), and a notable proportion of patients (7.1 and 5.1%, respectively) were admitted for a cardiovascular condition. In the 4 weeks after onset, all-cause mortality was 32.1% for pneumonia (3115/9697), 31.7% for sepsis (780/2461), 4.1% for lower respiratory tract infections (5685/139 301) and 1.6% for urinary tract infections (1472/91 574).

CONCLUSIONS

The present large cohort study provides up-to-date detailed infection incidence estimates among older people with diabetes in the community, with variation by age, sex and region and over time. This should be of use for patient communication of risk and future healthcare planning.

Injury among children and young adults with epilepsy

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether children and young adults with epilepsy are at a greater risk of fracture, thermal injury, or poisoning than those without.

METHODS

A cohort study was conducted by using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (1987-2009), a longitudinal database containing primary care records. A total of 11 934 people with epilepsy and 46 598 without, aged between 1 and 24 years at diagnosis, were followed for a median (interquartile range) of 2.6 (0.8-5.9) years. The risk of fractures (including long bone fractures), thermal injuries, and poisonings (including medicinal and nonmedicinal poisonings) was estimated.

RESULTS

Adjusting for age, gender, Strategic Health Authority region, deprivation, and calendar year at study entry (and, for medicinal poisonings, behavior disorder), people with epilepsy had an 18% increase in risk of fracture (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.18; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.09-1.27), a 23% increase in risk of long bone fracture (HR = 1.23; 95% CI, 1.10-1.38), a 49% increase in risk of thermal injury (HR = 1.49; 95% CI, 1.27-1.75), and more than twice the risk of poisoning (HR = 2.47; 95% CI, 2.15-2.84), which was limited to poisoning from medicinal products (medicinal HR = 2.54; 95% CI, 2.16-2.99; nonmedicinal HR = 0.96; 95% CI, 0.61-1.52).

CONCLUSIONS

Children and young adults with epilepsy are at a greater risk of fracture, thermal injury, and poisoning than those without. The greatest risk is from medicinal poisonings. Doctors and other health care professionals should provide injury and poison prevention advice at diagnosis and epilepsy reviews.