Association between chronic kidney disease and major hemorrhage in older persons: data from the ASPREE randomized trial

Introduction

Data on the association between chronic kidney disease (CKD) and major hemorrhage in older adults are lacking.

Methods

We used data from a double-blind randomized controlled trial of aspirin in persons aged ≥ 70 years with prospective capture of bleeding events, including hemorrhagic stroke and clinically significant bleeding. CKD was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 60 ml/min per 1.73 m² and/or urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) ≥ 3 mg/mmol (26.6 mg/g). We compared bleeding rates in those with and without CKD, undertook multivariable analyses, and explored effect modification with aspirin.

Results

Of 19,114 participants, 17,976 (94.0%) had CKD status recorded, of whom 4952 (27.5%) had CKD. Participants with CKD had an increased rate of major bleeding events compared with those without CKD (10.4/1000 vs. 6.3/1000 person-years [py], respectively) and increased bleeding risk (risk ratio [RR] 1.60; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.40, 1.90 for eGFR < 60 ml/min per 1.73 m²) and RR (2.10; 95% CI: 1.70, 2.50) for albuminuria. In adjusted analyses, CKD was associated with a 35% increased risk of bleeding (hazard ratio [HR] 1.37; 95% CI: 1.15, 1.62; P < 0.001). Other risk factors were older age, hypertension, smoking, and aspirin use. There was no differential effect of aspirin on bleeding by CKD status (test of interaction P = 0.65).

Conclusion

CKD is independently associated with an increased risk of major hemorrhage in older adults. Increased awareness of modifiable risk factors such as discontinuation of unnecessary aspirin, blood pressure control, and smoking cessation in this group is warranted.

Incident Cancer Risk and Signatures Among Older MUTYH Carriers: Analysis of Population-Based and Genomic Cohorts

MUTYH carriers have an increased colorectal cancer risk in case-control studies, with loss of heterozygosity (LOH) as the presumed mechanism. We evaluated cancer risk among carriers in a prospective, population-based cohort of older adults. In addition, we assessed if cancers from carriers demonstrated mutational signatures (G:C>T:A transversions) associated with early LOH. We calculated incident risk of cancer and colorectal cancer among 13,131 sequenced study participants of the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly cohort, stratified by sex and adjusting for age, smoking, alcohol use, BMI, polyp history, history of cancer, and aspirin use. MUTYH carriers were identified among 13,033 participants in The Cancer Genome Atlas and International Cancer Genome Consortium, and somatic signatures of cancers were analyzed. Male MUTYH carriers demonstrated an increased risk for overall cancer incidence [multivariable HR, 1.66; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.03-2.68; P = 0.038] driven by increased colorectal cancer incidence (multivariable HR, 3.55; 95% CI, 1.42-8.78; P = 0.007), as opposed to extracolonic cancer incidence (multivariable HR, 1.40; 95% CI, 0.81-2.44; P = 0.229). Female carriers did not demonstrate increased risk of cancer, colorectal cancer, or extracolonic cancers. Analysis of mutation signatures from cancers of MUTYH carriers revealed no significant contribution toward early mutagenesis from widespread G:C>T:A transversions among gastrointestinal epithelial cancers. Among cancers from carriers, somatic transversions associated with base-excision repair deficiency are uncommon, suggestive of diverse mechanisms of carcinogenesis in carriers compared with those who inherit biallelic MUTYH mutations.

PREVENTION RELEVANCE

Despite absence of loss of heterozygosity in colorectal cancers, elderly male MUTYH carriers appeared to be at increased of colorectal cancer.

Major GI bleeding in older persons using aspirin: incidence and risk factors in the ASPREE randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVE

There is a lack of robust data on significant gastrointestinal bleeding in older people using aspirin. We calculated the incidence, risk factors and absolute risk using data from a large randomised, controlled trial.

DESIGN

Data were extracted from an aspirin versus placebo primary prevention trial conducted throughout 2010-2017 ('ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE)', n=19 114) in community-dwelling persons aged ≥70 years. Clinical characteristics were collected at baseline and annually. The endpoint was major GI bleeding that resulted in transfusion, hospitalisation, surgery or death, adjudicated independently by two physicians blinded to trial arm.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 4.7 years (88 389 person years), there were 137 upper GI bleeds (89 in aspirin arm and 48 in placebo arm, HR 1.87, 95% CI 1.32 to 2.66, p<0.01) and 127 lower GI bleeds (73 in aspirin and 54 in placebo arm, HR 1.36, 95% CI 0.96 to 1.94, p=0.08) reflecting a 60% increase in bleeding overall. There were two fatal bleeds in the placebo arm. Multivariable analyses indicated age, smoking, hypertension, chronic kidney disease and obesity increased bleeding risk. The absolute 5-year risk of bleeding was 0.25% (95% CI 0.16% to 0.37%) for a 70 year old not on aspirin and up to 5.03% (2.56% to 8.73%) for an 80 year old taking aspirin with additional risk factors.

CONCLUSION

Aspirin increases overall GI bleeding risk by 60%; however, the 5-year absolute risk of serious bleeding is modest in younger, well individuals. These data may assist patients and their clinicians to make informed decisions about prophylactic use of aspirin.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ASPREE. NCT01038583.

Subgroup analysis of the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly randomized clinical trial suggests aspirin did not improve outcomes in older adults with chronic kidney disease

The role of aspirin for primary prevention in older adults with chronic kidney disease (CKD) is unclear. Therefore, post hoc analysis of the randomized controlled trial ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) was undertaken comparing 100 mg of enteric-coated aspirin daily against matching placebo. Participants were community dwelling adults aged 70 years and older in Australia, 65 years and older in the United States, all free of a history of dementia or cardiovascular disease and of any disease expected to lead to death within five years. CKD was defined as present at baseline if either eGFR under 60mL/min/1.73m² or urine albumin to creatinine ratio 3 mg/mmol or more. In 4758 participants with and 13004 without CKD, the rates of a composite endpoint (dementia, persistent physical disability or death), major adverse cardiovascular events and clinically significant bleeding in the CKD participants were almost double those without CKD. Aspirin's effects as estimated by hazard ratios were generally similar between CKD and non-CKD groups for dementia, persistent physical disability or death, major adverse cardiovascular events and clinically significant bleeding. Thus, in our analysis aspirin did not improve outcomes in older people while increasing the risk of bleeding, with mostly consistent effects in participants with and without CKD.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease burden: Australia, 2019-2030

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) account for a large and growing proportion of liver disease burden globally. The burden of NAFLD/NASH manifests in increasing levels of advanced liver disease and primary liver cancer in Australia. A Markov model was used to forecast NAFLD burden in Australia through 2030.

METHODS

A model was used to estimate fibrosis progression, primary liver cancer, and liver deaths among the Australian NAFLD population, with changes in incident NAFLD cases based on long-term trends for changes in the prevalence of obesity. Published estimates and surveillance data were applied to build and validate the model projections, including surveillance data for the incidence of liver cancer.

RESULTS

Prevalent NAFLD cases were projected to increase 25% from the current burden (5 551 000 [4 748 000-6 306 000] cases in 2019) to 7 024 000 [5 838 000-7 886 000] cases in 2030. The projected increase in the number of NASH cases (40%) was greater than that of NAFLD cases. Incident cases of advanced liver disease are projected to increase up to 85% by 2030, and incident NAFLD liver deaths are estimated to increase 85% from 1900 (1100-3300) deaths in 2019 to 3500 (2100-6100) deaths in 2030.

CONCLUSIONS

Restraining growth of the obese and diabetic populations, along with potential therapeutic options, will be essential for mitigating disease burden.

Trends in Colon and Rectal Cancer Incidence in Australia from 1982 to 2014: Analysis of Data on Over 375,000 Cases

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer is the third most commonly diagnosed cancer in Australia. Emerging evidence from several countries suggests increasing incidence in people aged <50 years.

METHODS

We assessed colon and rectal cancer incidence trends in people aged 20+ in Australia from 1982 to 2014. We used data on 375,008 incident cases (248,162 colon and 126,846 rectal). We quantified the annual percentage change (APC) in rates by age group using Joinpoint regression.

RESULTS

For people aged <50 years, colon cancer rates increased from the mid-2000s, with the increase in APCs ranging from 1.7% to 9.3% per annum (depending on specific age group); rectal cancer rates increased from the early 1990s, with APCs ranging from 0.9% to 7.1% per annum. For people aged 50 to 69 years, colon and rectal cancer rates decreased from the mid-1990s, with the decrease in APCs in specific age groups ranging from 0.8% to 4.8% per annum (except for colon cancer in those ages 65 to 69 years, where similar rate decreases were observed from 2007). An overall reduction in older persons (>70 years) was estimated at 1.9% to 4.9% per annum for colon cancer from 2010 onward and 1.1% to 1.8% per annum in rectal cancer from the early 2000s onward.

CONCLUSIONS

Colon and rectal cancer incidence has increased in people aged <50 years in Australia over the last two decades. However, colon and rectal cancer rates decreased in people aged 50+, likely due to de facto and organized bowel cancer screening.

IMPACT

Further research is needed to examine the cause of the increase and to quantify the impact of future trends on the cost-effectiveness of population-based screening for those <50 years.

Effect of Aspirin on Cardiovascular Events and Bleeding in the Healthy Elderly

BACKGROUND

Aspirin is a well-established therapy for the secondary prevention of cardiovascular events. However, its role in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease is unclear, especially in older persons, who have an increased risk.

METHODS

From 2010 through 2014, we enrolled community-dwelling men and women in Australia and the United States who were 70 years of age or older (or ≥65 years of age among blacks and Hispanics in the United States) and did not have cardiovascular disease, dementia, or disability. Participants were randomly assigned to receive 100 mg of enteric-coated aspirin or placebo. The primary end point was a composite of death, dementia, or persistent physical disability; results for this end point are reported in another article in the Journal. Secondary end points included major hemorrhage and cardiovascular disease (defined as fatal coronary heart disease, nonfatal myocardial infarction, fatal or nonfatal stroke, or hospitalization for heart failure).

RESULTS

Of the 19,114 persons who were enrolled in the trial, 9525 were assigned to receive aspirin and 9589 to receive placebo. After a median of 4.7 years of follow-up, the rate of cardiovascular disease was 10.7 events per 1000 person-years in the aspirin group and 11.3 events per 1000 person-years in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.95; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.83 to 1.08). The rate of major hemorrhage was 8.6 events per 1000 person-years and 6.2 events per 1000 person-years, respectively (hazard ratio, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.18 to 1.62; P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The use of low-dose aspirin as a primary prevention strategy in older adults resulted in a significantly higher risk of major hemorrhage and did not result in a significantly lower risk of cardiovascular disease than placebo. (Funded by the National Institute on Aging and others; ASPREE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01038583 .).

Burden of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in Australia

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the commonest cause of chronic liver disease in the Australian population, although precise estimates of prevalence are lacking. NAFLD may progress to liver fibrosis, cirrhosis, decompensated liver disease, and liver cancer and is becoming an increasingly common indication for liver transplantation in Australia and New Zealand. There is an extrahepatic burden of NAFLD extending beyond the liver, which is manifested by an increased risk of developing cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and chronic renal impairment, all of which are common causes of morbidity in the Australian population. Early recognition of those patients at high risk of developing advanced liver disease is essential in order to target those who will benefit from intensive lifestyle modification. In this review, we present data on the epidemiology of NAFLD within Australia, its associated health burden in terms of hepatic and extrahepatic complications, common clinical presentations, and indications for treatment. We also propose a research agenda that highlights knowledge needed to improve diagnosis and management specific to the Australian context.

Prevalence of elevated alanine transaminase in Australia and its relationship to metabolic risk factors: A cross-sectional study of 9,447 people

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Elevated alanine transaminase (ALT) is a strong predictor of metabolic syndrome, but there are few data from the Australian population. We aimed to determine the prevalence of elevated ALT and association with metabolic risk factors.

METHODS

In this cross-sectional study including adult participants (N = 9,447) from a nationwide, population-based survey, we assessed the prevalence of elevated ALT [defined as ≥ 40 IU/L (men) and ≥ 30 IU/L (women) as baseline, and ALT as ≥ 30 IU/L (men) and ≥ 19 IU/L (women) as lower threshold], distribution of metabolic risk factors, and independent predictors of elevated ALT in logistic regression models. Analyses were weighted to the population with population weights.

RESULTS

Elevated ALT levels were found in 11.2% of the Australian population. People with elevated ALT were younger (43 vs 46 yrs) with more truncal adiposity (100 vs 91 cm), higher pro-atherogenic lipids and glucose and exercised less (120 vs 160 min per week, P < 0.05 for all analyses). Regression analyses indicated that younger age, male sex, diabetes, triglycerides, apolipoprotein B, and waist circumference were independent predictors of elevated ALT. The population attributable fraction of elevated ALT due to truncal obesity was estimated at 47%.

CONCLUSION

These data demonstrate a high prevalence of elevated ALT in the general population that is closely associated with metabolic risk factors. Individuals with elevated ALT should be evaluated for co-existent metabolic disorders.

Exercise and diet in the management of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most prevalent chronic liver condition worldwide, and is projected to become the leading cause for liver transplantation in the United States as early as 2020. The mainstay of treatment remains lifestyle modification with diet and exercise recommendations, as although some pharmacological treatments such as glitazones and Vitamin E have shown benefit, there are concerns regarding long term safety. The evidence base for dietary interventions in NAFLD such as the Mediterranean diet, omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids and coffee is mainly derived from observational data with questionable validity. Where trials exist, they have shown benefit for surrogate outcomes such as hepatic steatosis and insulin resistance, but no trials have been conducted with salient clinical outcomes such as reduction in progression to chronic liver disease. Benefit in surrogate outcomes has also been seen for aerobic, anaerobic and combined modality exercise but it remains unclear if one type is superior. Furthermore, a reduction in sedentary time appears equally important. To provide a sound evidence base for lifestyle recommendations to people with NAFLD, longer duration trials of standardized dietary or exercise interventions, and testing various doses, types and with liver related outcomes, are essential.

Radiologists' perspectives about evidence-based medicine and their clinical practice: a semistructured interview study

OBJECTIVES

To describe radiologist's attitudes and perspectives on evidence-based medicine (EBM) and their practice.

DESIGN

Face-to-face semistructured interviews, thematic analysis.

SETTING

24 institutions across six Australian states and New Zealand. Transcripts were imported into HyperRESEARCH software and thematically analysed.

PARTICIPANTS

25 radiologists.

RESULTS

Six themes were identified: legitimising decisions (validated justification, prioritising patient preferences, reinforcing protocols), optimising outcomes (ensuring patient safety, maximising efficiency), availability of access (requiring immediacy, inadequacy of evidence, time constraints, proximity of peer networks, grasping information dispersion), over-riding pragmatism (perceptibly applicability, preserving the art of medicine, technical demands), limited confidence (conceptual obscurity, reputation-based trust, demands constant practice, suspicion and cynicism), and competing powers (hierarchical conflict, prevailing commercial interests).

CONCLUSIONS

Radiologists believe EBM can support clinical decision-making for optimal patient outcomes and service efficiency but feel limited in their capacities to assimilate and apply EBM in practice. Improving access to evidence, providing ongoing education and training supplemented with practical tools for appraising evidence; and developing evidence-based guidelines and protocols may enhance feasibility and promote the confidence and skills among radiologists in applying EBM in radiology practice for better patient care.

The future liver of the Asia pacific: fatter and firmer from more fructose and fortune?

The Asia Pacific region is the most diverse and the most populous region in the world. Recent socioeconomic changes have resulted in an emerging epidemic of non-communicable diseases such as type 2 diabetes and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. The prevalence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in Asian Pacific countries now approximates that seen in Western countries. This increase is fueled by rising obesity, partly due to adoption of Western style diets and exposure to compounds such as high fructose corn syrup that are not included in traditional diets. Furthermore, South Asian populations may be more genetically susceptible via the inheritance of polymorphisms in apolipoprotein 3 that increase insulin resistance and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. Importantly, there remains a substantial lack of data on the incidence and natural history of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis and subsequent complications such as hepatocellular carcinoma in Asian Pacific populations. This information gap prevents estimation of current and future disease burden and impedes efforts to lobby health policymakers to improve public health measures, as given the size of Asian Pacific populations, prevention rather than treatment of non-communicable diseases remains key. This review article addresses these issues and highlights research priorities for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease within the Asia Pacific region.

Pioglitazone and vitamin E for nonalcoholic steatohepatitis: a cost utility analysis

Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is the commonest liver disease in developed countries. However, there are no current data on the cost-effectiveness of therapeutic options such as lifestyle modification, pioglitazone, or vitamin E. We undertook a cost utility analysis to compare these strategies. Using a third-party payer perspective, a deterministic Markov model was developed to compare costs and health benefits of lifestyle modification alone or with pioglitazone or vitamin E in a cohort of patients aged 50 years with biopsy-proven NASH and fibrosis level 3 or greater. We assumed an annual cycle length over a lifetime horizon. Probability and utility estimates were derived from a systematic literature review, and uncertainties in parameter estimates were tested using one- and two-way sensitivity analyses. Our outcome measure was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), with $A50,000 or less considered cost-effective. In comparison with lifestyle modification alone, treatment with either pioglitazone or vitamin E in addition to lifestyle modification was cost-effective, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of $A2748 and $A8475 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained, respectively. In a direct comparison, pioglitazone was more cost-effective than vitamin E (ICER $A2,056/QALY gained). Sensitivity analyses indicated that pioglitazone was not cost-effective if either the total drug cost was greater than $A16,000 per annum, or the annual probability of developing cirrhosis in advanced fibrosis was less than 2%.

CONCLUSION

Our modeled analyses suggest that in patients with advanced fibrosis due to NASH, pharmacological treatment in addition to standard lifestyle modification is likely to be cost-effective.

Management of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis: an evidence-based approach

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and its progressive form, nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), are an increasingly common cause of chronic liver disease in the developed world, with NASH projected to be the leading cause of liver transplantation in the United States by 2020. This review of NASH management addresses current data from the perspective of levels of evidence for therapeutic options in NASH, including lifestyle modification, drug therapies, and bariatric surgery. In particular, behavioral therapies to assist patients in adopting lifestyle changes are highlighted and a research agenda for future NASH management is presented.

The role of thiazolidinediones in non-alcoholic steatohepatitis - a systematic review and meta analysis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Non alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) has no approved pharmacological therapy. Insulin sensitisers such as thiazolidinediones ameliorate insulin resistance and are a potential therapeutic option. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of the effect of thiazolidinediones on histological and biochemical variables in NASH.

METHODS

Two reviewers searched Medline, Embase, Cochrane Central, international meeting abstracts, reference lists, and contacted experts. Inclusion criteria were randomized trials of people with NASH receiving thiazolidinediones, compared with placebo or other treatments. Methodological quality was assessed in domains suggested by the Cochrane Collaboration. The primary outcome was histological improvement (fibrosis, steatosis, inflammation, hepatocellular ballooning, and NAS score). Secondary outcomes included change in alanine transaminase, insulin resistance, body mass index, weight, and adverse events. Meta-analysis used random effects with dichotomous outcomes as relative risk (RR) and continuous outcomes as mean difference (MD), both with 95% confidence intervals (CI).

RESULTS

Of seven randomized trials (n=489) with histological outcomes, four were placebo controlled (n=355). Methodological quality was variable although better for placebo controlled studies. Treated participants showed improvement in fibrosis (RR 1.38, CI 1.01-1.89), steatosis (RR 2.03, CI 1.57-2.62), inflammation (RR 1.71, CI 1.32-2.21), and hepatocellular ballooning (RR 1.62, CI 1.15-2.28). Treatment increased weight by an average of 4.4 kg (CI 2.6-5.2 kg). Adverse event reporting was inconsistent and only one trial assessed quality of life.

CONCLUSIONS

Thiazolidinediones modestly improve histological variables including fibrosis and hepatocellular ballooning, but at the cost of significant weight gain. Trials of longer duration and reporting of patient oriented outcomes would be informative.

Locoregional therapies for hepatocellular carcinoma: which patients are most likely to gain a survival advantage?

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Locoregional therapies for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are considered to confer a survival advantage, however, the patient group that should be targeted is not clearly defined. This study aimed to determine the impact on survival of locoregional therapies compared with supportive care, within prognostic categories as stratified by the Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP) scoring system.

METHODS

A prospective database was used to identify those patients who were treated with either locoregional therapy (n = 128) or supportive care (n = 92). Survival analysis was performed for groups matched by CLIP score at presentation. Comparison of important prognostic factors was undertaken and univariate and multivariate analysis was performed to assess determinants of survival.

RESULTS

Use of locoregional therapies was only associated with a survival benefit in patients with a CLIP score of 1 or 2. In this group, the median survival in patients who received locoregional therapies was 25.0 months (95% confidence interval 22.7-27.4) compared with 8.9 months (95% confidence interval 7.3-10.5) for supportive care (P = 0.001). For patients with CLIP scores of 3 or greater, no survival benefit of locoregional therapies was observed. Multivariate analysis revealed locoregional intervention, CLIP score, tumor symptoms, alpha-fetoprotein level, bilirubin and alkaline phosphatase level as independent prognostic indicators.

CONCLUSION

Locoregional therapies should be targeted specifically to patients with non-advanced hepatocellular carcinoma as assessed by validated scoring systems. Use of these therapies in patients with advanced disease does not appear to be associated with a survival benefit and may expose patients to unnecessary harm.