Statistical analysis plan for a cluster randomised trial in Madhya Pradesh, India: community health promotion and medical provision and impact on neonates (CHAMPION2)

BACKGROUND

Neonatal mortality in India has fallen steadily and was estimated to be 24 per 1000 live births in the year 2017. However, neonatal mortality remains high in rural parts of the country. The Community Health Promotion and Medical Provision and Impact On Neonates (CHAMPION2) trial investigates the effect of a complex health intervention on neonatal mortality in the Satna District of Madhya Pradesh.

METHODS/DESIGN

The CHAMPION2 trial forms one part of a cluster-randomised controlled trial with villages (clusters) randomised to receive either a health (CHAMPION2) or education (STRIPES2) intervention. Villages receiving the health intervention are controls for the education intervention and vice versa. The primary outcome is neonatal mortality. The effect of the active intervention on the primary outcome (compared to usual care) will be expressed as a risk ratio, estimated using a generalised estimating equation approach with robust standard errors that take account of clustering at village level. Secondary outcomes include maternal mortality, stillbirths, perinatal deaths, causes of death, health care and knowledge, hospital admissions of enrolled women during pregnancy or in the immediate post-natal care period or of their babies (during the neonatal period), maternal blood transfusions, and the cost effectiveness of the intervention. A total of 196 villages have been randomised and over 34,000 women have been recruited in CHAMPION2.

DISCUSSION

This update to the published trial protocol gives a detailed plan for the statistical analysis of the CHAMPION2 trial.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Registry of India: CTRI/2019/05/019296. Registered on 23 May 2019. https://ctri.nic.in/Clinicaltrials/pmaindet2.php?EncHid=MzExOTg=&Enc=&userName=champion2.

Statistical analysis plan for a cluster randomised trial in Madhya Pradesh, India: support to rural India's public education system and impact on numeracy and literacy scores (STRIPES2)

BACKGROUND

India has made steady progress in improving rates of primary school enrolment but levels of learning achievement remain low. The Support To Rural India's Public Education System (STRIPES) trial provided evidence that an after-school para-teacher intervention improved numeracy and literacy levels in Telangana, India. The STRIPES2 trial investigates whether such an intervention will have a similar effect on the literacy and numeracy of primary school age children in the Satna District of Madhya Pradesh, India.

METHODS/DESIGN

The STRIPES2 trial forms one part of a cluster-randomised controlled trial with villages (clusters) randomised to receive either a health (CHAMPION2) or education (STRIPES2) intervention. Building on the design of the earlier CHAMPION/STRIPES trial, villages receiving the health intervention are controls for the education intervention and vice versa. The primary outcome is a combined literacy and numeracy score. Secondary outcomes include separate scores for literacy and numeracy; caregivers' engagement with child's learning; expenditure on education; enrolment in school; caregiver's report of school attendance and the cost effectiveness of the intervention. Over 7000 primary school age children have been recruited and randomised in STRIPES2.

DISCUSSION

This update to the published trial protocol gives a detailed plan for the statistical analysis of the STRIPES 2 trial.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Registry of India: CTRI/2019/05/019296. Registered on 23 May 2019. http://www.ctri.nic.in/Clinicaltrials/pdf_generate.php?trialid=31198&EncHid=&modid=&compid=%27,%2731198det%27.

Diagnostic accuracy of multiplex respiratory pathogen panels for influenza or respiratory syncytial virus infections: systematic review and meta-analysis

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and influenza viruses are important global causes of morbidity and mortality. We evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of the Luminex NxTAG respiratory pathogen panels (RPPs)™ (index) against other RPPs (comparator) for detection of RSV and influenza viruses. Studies comparing human clinical respiratory samples tested with the index and at least one comparator test were included. A random-effect latent class meta-analysis was performed to assess the specificity and sensitivity of the index test for RSV and influenza. Risk of bias was assessed using the QUADAS-2 tool and certainty of evidence using GRADE. Ten studies were included. For RSV, predicted sensitivity was 99% (95% credible interval [CrI] 96-100%) and specificity 100% (95% CrI 98-100%). For influenza A and B, predicted sensitivity was 97% (95% CrI 89-100) and 98% (95% CrI 88-100) respectively; specificity 100% (95% CrI 99-100) and 100% (95% CrI 99-100), respectively. Evidence was low certainty. Although index sensitivity and specificity were excellent, comparators' performance varied. Further research with clear patient recruitment strategies could ascertain performance across different populations.Protocol Registration: Prospero CRD42021272062.

Indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on malaria intervention coverage, morbidity, and mortality in Africa: a geospatial modelling analysis

BACKGROUND

Substantial progress has been made in reducing the burden of malaria in Africa since 2000, but those gains could be jeopardised if the COVID-19 pandemic affects the availability of key malaria control interventions. The aim of this study was to evaluate plausible effects on malaria incidence and mortality under different levels of disruption to malaria control.

METHODS

Using an established set of spatiotemporal Bayesian geostatistical models, we generated geospatial estimates across malaria-endemic African countries of the clinical case incidence and mortality of malaria, incorporating an updated database of parasite rate surveys, insecticide-treated net (ITN) coverage, and effective treatment rates. We established a baseline estimate for the anticipated malaria burden in Africa in the absence of COVID-19-related disruptions, and repeated the analysis for nine hypothetical scenarios in which effective treatment with an antimalarial drug and distribution of ITNs (both through routine channels and mass campaigns) were reduced to varying extents.

FINDINGS

We estimated 215·2 (95% uncertainty interval 143·7-311·6) million cases and 386·4 (307·8-497·8) thousand deaths across malaria-endemic African countries in 2020 in our baseline scenario of undisrupted intervention coverage. With greater reductions in access to effective antimalarial drug treatment, our model predicted increasing numbers of cases and deaths: 224·1 (148·7-326·8) million cases and 487·9 (385·3-634·6) thousand deaths with a 25% reduction in antimalarial drug coverage; 233·1 (153·7-342·5) million cases and 597·4 (468·0-784·4) thousand deaths with a 50% reduction; and 242·3 (158·7-358·8) million cases and 715·2 (556·4-947·9) thousand deaths with a 75% reduction. Halting planned 2020 ITN mass distribution campaigns and reducing routine ITN distributions by 25%-75% also increased malaria burden to a total of 230·5 (151·6-343·3) million cases and 411·7 (322·8-545·5) thousand deaths with a 25% reduction; 232·8 (152·3-345·9) million cases and 415·5 (324·3-549·4) thousand deaths with a 50% reduction; and 234·0 (152·9-348·4) million cases and 417·6 (325·5-553·1) thousand deaths with a 75% reduction. When ITN coverage and antimalarial drug coverage were synchronously reduced, malaria burden increased to 240·5 (156·5-358·2) million cases and 520·9 (404·1-691·9) thousand deaths with a 25% reduction; 251·0 (162·2-377·0) million cases and 640·2 (492·0-856·7) thousand deaths with a 50% reduction; and 261·6 (167·7-396·8) million cases and 768·6 (586·1-1038·7) thousand deaths with a 75% reduction.

INTERPRETATION

Under pessimistic scenarios, COVID-19-related disruption to malaria control in Africa could almost double malaria mortality in 2020, and potentially lead to even greater increases in subsequent years. To avoid a reversal of two decades of progress against malaria, averting this public health disaster must remain an integrated priority alongside the response to COVID-19.

FUNDING

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; Channel 7 Telethon Trust, Western Australia.

Laboratory biomarkers associated with COVID-19 severity and management

The heterogeneous disease course of COVID-19 is unpredictable, ranging from mild self-limiting symptoms to cytokine storms, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), multi-organ failure and death. Identification of high-risk cases will enable appropriate intervention and escalation. This study investigates the routine laboratory tests and cytokines implicated in COVID-19 for their potential application as biomarkers of disease severity, respiratory failure and need of higher-level care.

From analysis of 203 samples, CRP, IL-6, IL-10 and LDH were most strongly correlated with the WHO ordinal scale of illness severity, the fraction of inspired oxygen delivery, radiological evidence of ARDS and level of respiratory support (p ≤ 0.001). IL-6 levels of ≥3.27 pg/ml provide a sensitivity of 0.87 and specificity of 0.64 for a requirement of ventilation, and a CRP of ≥37 mg/l of 0.91 and 0.66.

Reliable stratification of high-risk cases has significant implications on patient triage, resource management and potentially the initiation of novel therapies in severe patients.

Mapping malaria seasonality in Madagascar using health facility data

BACKGROUND

Many malaria-endemic areas experience seasonal fluctuations in case incidence as Anopheles mosquito and Plasmodium parasite life cycles respond to changing environmental conditions. Identifying location-specific seasonality characteristics is useful for planning interventions. While most existing maps of malaria seasonality use fixed thresholds of rainfall, temperature, and/or vegetation indices to identify suitable transmission months, we construct a statistical modelling framework for characterising the seasonal patterns derived directly from monthly health facility data.

METHODS

With data from 2669 of the 3247 health facilities in Madagascar, a spatiotemporal regression model was used to estimate seasonal patterns across the island. In the absence of catchment population estimates or the ability to aggregate to the district level, this focused on the monthly proportions of total annual cases by health facility level. The model was informed by dynamic environmental covariates known to directly influence seasonal malaria trends. To identify operationally relevant characteristics such as the transmission start months and associated uncertainty measures, an algorithm was developed and applied to model realisations. A seasonality index was used to incorporate burden information from household prevalence surveys and summarise 'how seasonal' locations are relative to their surroundings.

RESULTS

Positive associations were detected between monthly case proportions and temporally lagged covariates of rainfall and temperature suitability. Consistent with the existing literature, model estimates indicate that while most parts of Madagascar experience peaks in malaria transmission near March-April, the eastern coast experiences an earlier peak around February. Transmission was estimated to start in southeast districts before southwest districts, suggesting that indoor residual spraying should be completed in the same order. In regions where the data suggested conflicting seasonal signals or two transmission seasons, estimates of seasonal features had larger deviations and therefore less certainty.

CONCLUSIONS

Monthly health facility data can be used to establish seasonal patterns in malaria burden and augment the information provided by household prevalence surveys. The proposed modelling framework allows for evidence-based and cohesive inferences on location-specific seasonal characteristics. As health surveillance systems continue to improve, it is hoped that more of such data will be available to improve our understanding and planning of intervention strategies.

Clinical perspectives into the use of thalidomide for central nervous system tuberculosis

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Central nervous system (CNS) tuberculosis (TB) accounts for over 4% of all TB notifications in the UK and causes death or significant disability in over half of those affected. Tumour necrosis factor alpha is a critical cytokine involved in the neuropathogenesis of CNS TB. Thalidomide has been trialled in CNS TB due to its immunomodulatory and immune reconstitution effects through the inhibition of tumour necrosis factor alpha. Despite animal models demonstrating dramatic improvement in survival, studies in paediatric patients have been associated with higher levels of mortality. The effects of thalidomide have not yet been studied in adults with CNS TB. This narrative case series guides clinicians through a range of CNS TB clinical cases seen in a large London teaching hospital, serving a region with a high incidence of TB (32 per 100 000) with 55% of TB cases manifesting as extrapulmonary disease. We aimed to illustrate our experiences of using thalidomide to treat a range of severe CNS TB complications.

METHODS

Five inpatients at The Royal London Hospital, London, UK treated with thalidomide in addition to standard TB treatment are described in detail. The rationale for treatment initiation with thalidomide is explained.

RESULTS

The case examples are used to guide our reflections and lessons learnt regarding the use of thalidomide. Responses to treatment and functional outcomes suggest that thalidomide may be a useful adjunct to standard TB therapy in selected adult cases.

CONCLUSIONS

The experience gained from using thalidomide in this small case series may provide evidence leading to more research into using thalidomide to treat severe CNS TB.

Discussing sudden unexpected death in epilepsy: Are we empowering our patients? A questionnaire survey

OBJECTIVE

To examine patient knowledge about sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP) compared to other risks in epilepsy. To explore patients' experiences surrounding SUDEP disclosure and opinions on how information should be delivered.

DESIGN

A cross-sectional questionnaire.

SETTING

Royal Free Hospital, London outpatient epilepsy clinics.

PARTICIPANTS

New and follow-up patients attending epilepsy clinics at a London teaching hospital over six months. Patients identified as being at risk of suffering negative emotional or psychological consequences of SUDEP discussions were excluded.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Patient knowledge about epilepsy risks; patient opinion regarding source, timing and delivery of SUDEP information; impact on health seeking behaviour.

RESULTS

Ninety-eight per cent of patients were aware of medication adherence, 84% of factors influencing seizure frequency, 78% of driving regulations, 50% of SUDEP and 38% of status epilepticus; 72% of patients felt that SUDEP information should be given to all patients. Preferences for timing of SUDEP discussions varied between those wanting information at diagnosis (40%) and those preferring to receive it after three clinic appointments (18%) to avoid information overload at the first consultation. Emotional responses (48% positive, 38% negative) predominated over measurable behavioural change following SUDEP discussions.

CONCLUSIONS

Less than half the patients knew about SUDEP and status epilepticus. Although the majority of patients with epilepsy wish to be informed about SUDEP early on in their diagnosis, information must be delivered in a way that promotes patient knowledge and empowerment.

Neurology of the cryopyrin-associated periodic fever syndrome

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The cryopyrin-associated periodic fever syndrome (CAPS) is an autosomal dominant autoinflammatory disorder caused by mutations in the NLRP3 gene and is typified by recurrent episodes of systemic inflammation resulting in fever, urticarial rash and arthralgia. In addition to these systemic aspects, CAPS has multiple neurological manifestations. The largest case series to date is presented focusing on the neurological features of this disorder.

METHODS

The case histories of a cohort of 38 UK patients with genetically proven CAPS who were treated with interleukin 1β (IL-1β) inhibition as part of a national treatment programme and underwent detailed neurological assessment were reviewed.

RESULTS

Across the entire disease course neurological manifestations were present in 95% of patients; 84% had some form of headache; 66% sensorineural hearing loss; 60% myalgia; 34% papilloedema and 26% optic atrophy. Patients with the T348M mutation tended to have a more severe neurological phenotype with an earlier age of onset. Four patients had cerebrospinal fluid examination, three of whom had evidence of aseptic meningitis. There was a marked response to IL-1β inhibition, which has revolutionized management of these patients (29/32 patients with headache responding).

CONCLUSION

Neurological symptoms are extremely common in CAPS and these results highlight the importance of increasing awareness amongst neurologists, particularly as highly effective therapies are available.

Lymphocyte activation: changes in intracellular adenosine triphosphate and deoxyribonucleic acid synthesis

Stimulation of human lymphocytes from 20 individuals with phytohaemagglutinin (PHA) for 60 min resulted in a fall in intracellular adenosine triphosphate (ATP) of 35% compared to unstimulated controls of 19% (p less than 0.001). There was a significant (p less than 0.01) correlation (r = 0.57) between ATP decrease at 60 min and deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) synthesis at 72 h in PHA-stimulated cells. The technique described here is simple, rapid and has possible application in immunodiagnosis and immunologic monitoring.

Control of large-scale plasma thawing for recovery of cryoprecipitate factor VIII

Cryoprecipitation is commonly used as the primary step in the preparation of clinical factor VIII concentrates; yet recovery is usually very low. Much of this loss is due to poor temperature control and a process of continuous plasma thawing has been designed to overcome this. A substantial improvement has resulted, with an increase in both yield and purity of factor VIII:C of over 50% in comparison to a conventional batch thaw process.