Synthetic Controls for Implementation Science: Opportunities for HIV Program Evaluation Using Routinely Collected Data

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

HIV service delivery programs are some of the largest funded public health programs in the world. Timely, efficient evaluation of these programs can be enhanced with methodologies designed to estimate the effects of policy. We propose using the synthetic control method (SCM) as an implementation science tool to evaluate these HIV programs.

RECENT FINDINGS

SCM, introduced in econometrics, shows increasing utility across fields. Key benefits of this methodology over traditional design-based approaches for evaluation stem from directly approximating pre-intervention trends by weighting of candidate non-intervention units. We demonstrate SCM to evaluate the effectiveness of a public health intervention targeting HIV health facilities with high numbers of recent infections on trends in pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) enrollment. This test case demonstrates SCM's feasibility for effectiveness evaluations of site-level HIV interventions. HIV programs collecting longitudinal, routine service delivery data for many facilities, with only some receiving a time-specified intervention, are well-suited for evaluation using SCM.

Brief Report: Self-Reported HIV-Positive Status but Subsequent HIV-Negative Test Results in Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment Survey Participants-11 Sub-Saharan African Countries, 2015-2018

BACKGROUND

HIV testing is a critical step to accessing antiretroviral therapy (ART) because early diagnosis can facilitate earlier initiation of ART. This study presents aggregated data of individuals who self-reported being HIV-positive but subsequently tested HIV-negative during nationally representative Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment surveys conducted in 11 countries from 2015 to 2018.

METHOD

Survey participants aged 15 years or older were interviewed by trained personnel using a standard questionnaire to determine HIV testing history and self-reported HIV status. Home-based HIV testing and counseling using rapid diagnostic tests with return of results were performed by survey staff according to the respective national HIV testing services algorithms on venous blood samples. Laboratory-based confirmatory HIV testing for all participants identified as HIV-positives and self-reported positives, irrespective of HIV testing results, was conducted and included Geenius HIV-1/2 and DNA polymerase chain reaction if Geenius was negative or indeterminate.

RESULTS

Of the 16,630 participants who self-reported as HIV-positive, 16,432 (98.6%) were confirmed as HIV-positive and 198 (1.4%) were HIV-negative by subsequent laboratory-based testing. Participants who self-reported as HIV-positive but tested HIV-negative were significantly younger than 30 years, less likely to have received ART, and less likely to have received a CD4 test compared with participants who self-reported as HIV-positive with laboratory-confirmed infection.

CONCLUSIONS

A small proportion of self-reported HIV-positive individuals could not be confirmed as positive, which could be due to initial misdiagnosis, deliberate wrong self-report, or misunderstanding of the questionnaire. As universal ART access is expanding, it is increasingly important to ensure quality of HIV testing and confirmation of HIV diagnosis before ART initiation.

Effects of empagliflozin on progression of chronic kidney disease: a prespecified secondary analysis from the empa-kidney trial

BACKGROUND

Sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors reduce progression of chronic kidney disease and the risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in a wide range of patients. However, their effects on kidney disease progression in some patients with chronic kidney disease are unclear because few clinical kidney outcomes occurred among such patients in the completed trials. In particular, some guidelines stratify their level of recommendation about who should be treated with SGLT2 inhibitors based on diabetes status and albuminuria. We aimed to assess the effects of empagliflozin on progression of chronic kidney disease both overall and among specific types of participants in the EMPA-KIDNEY trial.

METHODS

EMPA-KIDNEY, a randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial, was conducted at 241 centres in eight countries (Canada, China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, the UK, and the USA), and included individuals aged 18 years or older with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 20 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or with an eGFR of 45 to less than 90 mL/min per 1·73 m2 with a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (uACR) of 200 mg/g or higher. We explored the effects of 10 mg oral empagliflozin once daily versus placebo on the annualised rate of change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR slope), a tertiary outcome. We studied the acute slope (from randomisation to 2 months) and chronic slope (from 2 months onwards) separately, using shared parameter models to estimate the latter. Analyses were done in all randomly assigned participants by intention to treat. EMPA-KIDNEY is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03594110.

FINDINGS

Between May 15, 2019, and April 16, 2021, 6609 participants were randomly assigned and then followed up for a median of 2·0 years (IQR 1·5-2·4). Prespecified subgroups of eGFR included 2282 (34·5%) participants with an eGFR of less than 30 mL/min per 1·73 m2, 2928 (44·3%) with an eGFR of 30 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, and 1399 (21·2%) with an eGFR 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2 or higher. Prespecified subgroups of uACR included 1328 (20·1%) with a uACR of less than 30 mg/g, 1864 (28·2%) with a uACR of 30 to 300 mg/g, and 3417 (51·7%) with a uACR of more than 300 mg/g. Overall, allocation to empagliflozin caused an acute 2·12 mL/min per 1·73 m2 (95% CI 1·83-2·41) reduction in eGFR, equivalent to a 6% (5-6) dip in the first 2 months. After this, it halved the chronic slope from -2·75 to -1·37 mL/min per 1·73 m2 per year (relative difference 50%, 95% CI 42-58). The absolute and relative benefits of empagliflozin on the magnitude of the chronic slope varied significantly depending on diabetes status and baseline levels of eGFR and uACR. In particular, the absolute difference in chronic slopes was lower in patients with lower baseline uACR, but because this group progressed more slowly than those with higher uACR, this translated to a larger relative difference in chronic slopes in this group (86% [36-136] reduction in the chronic slope among those with baseline uACR <30 mg/g compared with a 29% [19-38] reduction for those with baseline uACR ≥2000 mg/g; ptrend<0·0001).

INTERPRETATION

Empagliflozin slowed the rate of progression of chronic kidney disease among all types of participant in the EMPA-KIDNEY trial, including those with little albuminuria. Albuminuria alone should not be used to determine whether to treat with an SGLT2 inhibitor.

FUNDING

Boehringer Ingelheim and Eli Lilly.

Impact of primary kidney disease on the effects of empagliflozin in patients with chronic kidney disease: secondary analyses of the EMPA-KIDNEY trial

BACKGROUND

The EMPA-KIDNEY trial showed that empagliflozin reduced the risk of the primary composite outcome of kidney disease progression or cardiovascular death in patients with chronic kidney disease mainly through slowing progression. We aimed to assess how effects of empagliflozin might differ by primary kidney disease across its broad population.

METHODS

EMPA-KIDNEY, a randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial, was conducted at 241 centres in eight countries (Canada, China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, the UK, and the USA). Patients were eligible if their estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was 20 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or 45 to less than 90 mL/min per 1·73 m2 with a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (uACR) of 200 mg/g or higher at screening. They were randomly assigned (1:1) to 10 mg oral empagliflozin once daily or matching placebo. Effects on kidney disease progression (defined as a sustained ≥40% eGFR decline from randomisation, end-stage kidney disease, a sustained eGFR below 10 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or death from kidney failure) were assessed using prespecified Cox models, and eGFR slope analyses used shared parameter models. Subgroup comparisons were performed by including relevant interaction terms in models. EMPA-KIDNEY is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03594110.

FINDINGS

Between May 15, 2019, and April 16, 2021, 6609 participants were randomly assigned and followed up for a median of 2·0 years (IQR 1·5-2·4). Prespecified subgroupings by primary kidney disease included 2057 (31·1%) participants with diabetic kidney disease, 1669 (25·3%) with glomerular disease, 1445 (21·9%) with hypertensive or renovascular disease, and 1438 (21·8%) with other or unknown causes. Kidney disease progression occurred in 384 (11·6%) of 3304 patients in the empagliflozin group and 504 (15·2%) of 3305 patients in the placebo group (hazard ratio 0·71 [95% CI 0·62-0·81]), with no evidence that the relative effect size varied significantly by primary kidney disease (pheterogeneity=0·62). The between-group difference in chronic eGFR slopes (ie, from 2 months to final follow-up) was 1·37 mL/min per 1·73 m2 per year (95% CI 1·16-1·59), representing a 50% (42-58) reduction in the rate of chronic eGFR decline. This relative effect of empagliflozin on chronic eGFR slope was similar in analyses by different primary kidney diseases, including in explorations by type of glomerular disease and diabetes (p values for heterogeneity all >0·1).

INTERPRETATION

In a broad range of patients with chronic kidney disease at risk of progression, including a wide range of non-diabetic causes of chronic kidney disease, empagliflozin reduced risk of kidney disease progression. Relative effect sizes were broadly similar irrespective of the cause of primary kidney disease, suggesting that SGLT2 inhibitors should be part of a standard of care to minimise risk of kidney failure in chronic kidney disease.

FUNDING

Boehringer Ingelheim, Eli Lilly, and UK Medical Research Council.

Sensitivity of Mucor piriformis to Natamycin and Efficacy of Natamycin Alone and with Salt and Heat Treatments Against Mucor Rot of Stored Mandarin Fruit

Mucor rot caused by Mucor piriformis is an emerging postharvest disease of mandarin fruit in California. Natamycin is a newly registered biofungicide for postharvest use on citrus and some other fruits. In the study, baseline sensitivity to natamycin in 50 isolates of M. piriformis was determined in vitro. The mean EC50 (effective concentration to inhibit sporangiospore germination by 50%) and MIC (minimum inhibitory concentration to inhibit mycelial growth by 100%) values were 0.59 μg/ml and less than 1.0 μg/ml, respectively. Natamycin at the label rate of 920 μg/ml alone or in combination with 3% potassium sorbate (PS) or 3% sodium carbonate (SC) applied at 20 or 50°C was evaluated for control of Mucor rot on inoculated 'Tango' mandarin fruit. Natamycin alone reduced Mucor rot incidence on stored mandarin fruit from 100% among nontreated control fruit to approximately 30%, a reduction of more than 70% compared to the nontreated control, while 3% PS and 3% SC had no to little control. When applied at 50°C, natamycin and 3% PS reduced Mucor rot incidence by 65.0 and 31.2%, respectively; while natamycin in combination with 3% PS reduced disease incidence by 92.5% compared to the nontreated control after 2 weeks of storage at 5°C. This combined treatment remained effective even when the application of the treatment was delayed for 6 and 12 h after inoculation. However, the effectiveness of the treatments declined when storage was extended to 3 or 4 weeks. Natamycin can be an effective tool to control Mucor rot on mandarin fruit, and minimizing the period of extended storage could help maintain the control efficacy of natamycin.

Health-Related Quality of Life at Five Years for a Randomized Trial of Tri-Modality Therapy with I-125 Brachytherapy, External Beam Radiation Therapy, and Short- vs. Long-Term Androgen Deprivation Therapy for High-Risk Localized Prostate Cancer (TRIP)

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE(S)

To describe the patient-reported health-related quality of life (HR-QoL) outcomes at five years for a multicenter randomized trial of tri-modality therapy with iodine-125 brachytherapy, external beam radiation therapy (EBRT), and short- versus long-term androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) for high-risk localized prostate cancer (TRIP/TRIGU0907).

MATERIALS/METHODS

A total of 332 men with high-risk prostate cancer were randomized to either 6 months of ADT (n = 165) or 30 months of ADT (n = 167) in conjunction with combined modality radiation therapy. For the HR-QoL assessment, general HR-QoL and disease-specific HR-QoL were measured using the Japanese version of the Medical Outcomes Study 8-items Short-Form Health Survey (SF-8) and the Expanded Prostate Cancer Index Composite (EPIC). Patient-reported outcome questionnaires were filled out before ADT initiation, and five years after. Scores were reported as mean with the standard deviation. QoL end points were assessed as the change between pre and post treatment using paired student t-test. Changes in the International Prostate Symptom Scores (IPSS) score, including total score and subscores, were also evaluated. The study was powered according to the primary endpoint of biochemical progression free survival with HR-QoL as a secondary endpoint. In addition, recovery of testosterone level (300ng/dL or higher) was calculated as the cumulative incidence curve and compared between arms by log-rank test.

RESULTS

The cumulative incidence of biochemical progression, and salvage ADT treatment were not different between the arms. Mean domain scores at baseline were well balanced between the two arms in all HR-QoL. There were no differences in the SF-8 assessment and the total and subscore EPIC assessments between the arms. The average sexual function score was lower in short arm versus long arm; 16.24 versus 20.24 at baseline, but not different at five years, 9.96 versus 7.78 (p = 0.164). There were no significant differences between the arms for the total and subscore IPSS. Significantly higher percentage of patients, 71.7% in the short arm recovered to a normal testosterone level at 6 years after the initiation of ADT compared to 43.2% in long arm (p<0.0001).

CONCLUSION

At five years after ADT initiation, there were no significant differences in all score changes between the two arms with general HR-QoL and disease-specific HR-QoL. Most of HR-QoL returned to baseline level, and sexual function scores were low from baseline in this population. Two-years' adjuvant ADT did not affect HR-QoL at five years, although it significantly retarded testosterone recovery compared to 6 months of hormone therapy.

Point of Care CD4 Testing in National Household Surveys - Results and Quality Indicators from Eleven Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA) Surveys

Population-based HIV Impact Assessments (PHIAs) are national household (HH) surveys that provide HIV diagnosis and CD4 testing with an immediate return of results. Accurate CD4 results improve HIV-positive participants' clinical care and inform the effectiveness of HIV programs. Here, we present CD4 results from the PHIA surveys that were conducted in 11 countries in sub-Saharan Africa between 2015 and 2018. All of the HIV-positive participants and 2 to 5% of the HIV-negative participants were offered Pima CD4 (Abbott, IL, USA) point-of-care (POC) tests. The quality of the CD4 test was ensured by conducting instrument verification, comprehensive training, quality control, a review of testing errors and an analysis of unweighted CD4 data by HIV status, age, gender, and antiretroviral (ARV) treatment status. Overall, CD4 testing was completed for 23,085 (99.5%) of the 23,209 HIV-positive and 7,329 (2.7%) of the 270,741 negative participants in 11 surveys. The instrument error rate was 11.3% (range, 4.4% to 15.7%). The median CD4 values among HIV-positive and HIV-negative participants (aged 15+) were 468 cells/mm3 (interquartile range [IQR], 307 to 654) and 811 cells/mm3 (IQR, 647 to 1,013), respectively. Among the HIV-positive participants (aged 15+), those with detectable ARVs had higher CD4 values (508 cells/mm3) than those with undetectable ARVs (385.5 cells/mm3). Among the HIV-positive participants (aged 15+), 11.4% (2,528/22,253) had a CD4 value of less than 200 cells/mm3, and approximately half of them (1,225/2,528 = 48.5%) had detectable ARVs, whereas 51.5% (1,303/2,528) had no detectable ARVs (P < 0.0001). We successfully implemented high quality POC CD4 testing using Pima instruments. Our data come from nationally representative surveys in 11 countries and provide unique insights regarding the CD4 distribution among HIV-positive individuals as well as the baseline CD4 values among HIV-negative individuals. IMPORTANCE The manuscript describes CD4 levels among HIV-positive individuals and baseline CD4 levels among HIV-negative individuals from 11 sub-Saharan countries, thereby highlighting the importance of CD4 markers in the context of the HIV epidemic. Despite increased ARV access in each country, advanced HIV disease (CD4 < 200 cells/mm3) persists among approximately 11% of HIV-positive individuals. Therefore, it is important that our findings are shared with the scientific community to assist with similar implementations of point-of-care testing and to conduct a review of HIV programmatic gaps.

Recombination of vibrationally cold N2+ ions with electrons

Recombination of vibrationally cold N2+ ions with electrons was studied in the temperature range of 140-250 K. A cryogenic stationary afterglow apparatus equipped with cavity ring-down spectrometer and microwave diagnostics was utilized to probe in situ the time evolutions of number densities of particular rotational and vibrational states of N2+ ions and of electrons. The obtained value of the recombination rate coefficient for the recombination of the vibrational ground state of N2+ with electrons is αv=0 = (2.95 ± 0.50) × 10-7(300/T)(0.28±0.07) cm3 s-1, while that for the first vibrationally excited state was inferred as αv=1 = (4 ± 4) × 10-8 cm3 s-1 at 250 K.

Influence of fetal hiccups on Doppler blood flow waveform of fetal arteries: Difference among arteries

BACKGROUND

A few studies have been reported on the influence of fetal hiccups on umbilical artery. The aim of this study is to clarify the influence of fetal hiccups on Doppler blood flow waveform (DBFW) of some fetal arteries, and to show the difference in these influences among fetal arteries.

OBJECTIVE

DBFW of umbilical artery, descending aorta, and middle cerebral artery were recorded at hiccups in normal fetuses between 34th and 40th gestational weeks. The changes on DBFW were classified into three shapes by the direction and the size of the changes. Shape 1: sharp decrease but not to the baseline, Shape 2: sharp decrease to the baseline (absence), and Shape 3: reverse flow.

RESULTS

At all hiccups, the changes on DBFW of these arteries were observed. These changes were classified into three shapes. Changes of umbilical artery were widely distributed in three shapes depending on when hiccup occurred during cardiac cycle. On the other hand, most changes of the descending aorta and middle cerebral artery were Shape 3 whenever the hiccup occurred during cardiac cycle.

CONCLUSION

The changes on DBFW of fetal arteries were observed at all hiccups. Changes of umbilical artery were widely distributed in three shapes depending on when hiccup occurred during cardiac cycle. On the other hand, most changes of descending aorta and middle cerebral artery were Shape 3. This is the first study clarified the influence of fetal hiccups on DBFW of some fetal arteries, and showed the difference in these influences among fetal arteries.

Multicenter registry of the Watchman left atrial appendage closure device for patients with atrial fibrillation in Japan: The TERMINATOR registry

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: Private grant(s) and/or Sponsorship. Main funding source(s): Boston Scientific Japan

Background

Transcatheter left atrial appendage closure (LAAC) provides an alternative to oral anticoagulation for thromboembolic risk reduction in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (AF). A meta-analysis of previous two randomized trials reported improved rates of hemorrhagic stroke, cardiovascular/unexplained death, and nonprocedural bleeding compared to warfarin (1). Recently, the next-generation LAAC device, the Watchman FLX system, became available, and showed a low incidence of adverse events and a high incidence of anatomic closure (2). This transcatheter stroke prevention has already been approved in Asian countries. However, there is little data of LAAC in Asian population.

Purpose

This study sought to assess efficacy and safety of LAAC for patients with nonvalvular AF in Asia.

Methods

The TERMINATOR (Transcatheter Modification of Left Atrial Appendage by Obliteration with Device) registry is a multicenter nonrandomized study in Japan. This enrolled patients who underwent LAAC in 23 Japanese institutions. The LAAC was indicated for patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation in whom oral anticoagulation is required, but who have a risk of bleeding (history of BARC type 3 bleeding or HAS-BLED score ≥3 points). Baseline patient and procedural characteristics and clinical outcomes were evaluated.

Results

A total of 729 patients were enrolled between September 2019 and November 2021. The mean age was 74.9±8.8 years and the mean CHA2DS2-VASc score was 4.7±1.5. The Watchman generation 2.5 and FLX system were used in 469 (64.3%) and 260 patients (35.7%), respectively. Procedural success was achieved in 722 patients (99.0%). In-hospital adverse events were as follows; 6 tamponades (0.8%), 3 pericardial effusion (0.4%), 2 device embolization (0.3%), no stroke (0%), and no death (0%). During follow-up, device-related thrombus and all-cause death were reported in 16 (2.2%) and 23 patients (3.2%), respectively.

Conclusions

LAAC with the Watchman system provides compatible efficacy and safety outcomes in Asian population.

Functional analysis of thermo-sensitive TRPV1 in an aquatic vertebrate, masu salmon (Oncorhynchus masou ishikawae)

Transient receptor potential vanilloid 1 (TRPV1) is mainly expressed in nociceptive primary sensory neurons and acts as a sensor for heat and capsaicin. The functional properties of TRPV1 have been reported to vary among species and, in some cases, the species difference in its thermal sensitivity is likely to be associated with thermal habitat conditions. To clarify the functional properties and physiological roles of TRPV1 in aquatic vertebrates, we examined the temperature and chemical sensitivities of TRPV1 in masu salmon (Oncorhynchus masou ishikawae, Om) belonging to a family of salmonids that generally prefer cool environments. First, behavioral experiments were conducted using a video tracking system. Application of capsaicin, a TRPV1 agonist, induced locomotor activities in juvenile Om. Increasing the ambient temperature also elicited locomotor activity potentiated by capsaicin. RT-PCR revealed TRPV1 expression in gills as well as spinal cord. Next, electrophysiological analyses of OmTRPV1 were performed using a two-electrode voltage-clamp technique with a Xenopus oocyte expression system. Heat stimulation evoked an inward current in heterologously expressed OmTRPV1. In addition, capsaicin produced current responses in OmTRPV1-expressing oocytes, but higher concentrations were needed for its activation compared to the mammalian orthologues. These results indicate that Om senses environmental stimuli (heat and capsaicin) through the activation of TRPV1, and this channel may play important roles in avoiding environments disadvantageous for survival in aquatic vertebrates.

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Capsaicin evoked behavioral responses of Oncorhynchus masou ishikawae (Om).

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The behavioral response to heat was potentiated by capsaicin.

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Heterologously expressed OmTRPV1 was activated by heat and capsaicin.

Post COVID-19 condition of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2

Objectives

To investigate the prevalence of post coronavirus disease (COVID-19) condition of the Omicron variant in comparison to other strains.

Study design

A single-center cross-sectional study.

Methods

Patients who recovered from Omicron COVID-19 infection (Omicron group) were interviewed via telephone, and patients infected with other strains (control group) were surveyed via a self-reporting questionnaire. Data on patients’ characteristics, information regarding the acute-phase COVID-19, as well as presence and duration of COVID-19-related symptoms were obtained. Post COVID-19 condition in this study was defined as a symptom that lasted for at least 2 months, within 3 months of COVID-19 onset. We investigated and compared the prevalence of post COVID-19 condition in both groups after performing propensity score matching.

Results

We conducted interviews for 53 out of 128 patients with Omicron and obtained 502 responses in the control group. After matching cases with controls, 18 patients from both groups had improved covariate balance of the factors: older adult, female sex, obesity, and vaccination status. There were no significant differences in the prevalence of each post COVID-19 condition between the two groups. The number of patients with at least one post COVID-19 condition in the Omicron and control groups were 1 (5.6%) and 10 (55.6%) (p = 0.003), respectively.

Conclusions

The prevalence of post Omicron COVID-19 conditions was less than that of the other strains. Further research with a larger sample size is needed to investigate the precise epidemiology of post COVID-19 condition of Omicron, and its impact on health-related quality of life and social productivity.

Correcting for selection bias in HIV prevalence estimates: an application of sample selection models using data from population-based HIV surveys in seven sub-Saharan African countries

Introduction

Population‐based biomarker surveys are the gold standard for estimating HIV prevalence but are susceptible to substantial non‐participation (up to 30%). Analytical missing data methods, including inverse‐probability weighting (IPW) and multiple imputation (MI), are biased when data are missing‐not‐at‐random, for example when people living with HIV more frequently decline participation. Heckman‐type selection models can, under certain assumptions, recover unbiased prevalence estimates in such scenarios.

Methods

We pooled data from 142,706 participants aged 15–49 years from nationally representative cross‐sectional Population‐based HIV Impact Assessments in seven countries in sub‐Saharan Africa, conducted between 2015 and 2018 in Tanzania, Uganda, Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Lesotho and Eswatini. We compared sex‐stratified HIV prevalence estimates from unadjusted, IPW, MI and selection models, controlling for household and individual‐level predictors of non‐participation, and assessed the sensitivity of selection models to the copula function specifying the correlation between study participation and HIV status.

Results

In total, 84.1% of participants provided a blood sample to determine HIV serostatus (range: 76% in Malawi to 95% in Uganda). HIV prevalence estimates from selection models diverged from IPW and MI models by up to 5% in Lesotho, without substantial precision loss. In Tanzania, the IPW model yielded lower HIV prevalence estimates among males than the best‐fitting copula selection model (3.8% vs. 7.9%).

Conclusions

We demonstrate how HIV prevalence estimates from selection models can differ from those obtained under missing‐at‐random assumptions. Further benefits include exploration of plausible relationships between participation and outcome. While selection models require additional assumptions and careful specification, they are an important tool for triangulating prevalence estimates in surveys with substantial missing data due to non‐participation.

POS0760 HIGH LEVELS OF PROTEINS, CELL COUNTS, AND IL-6 IN CEREBROSPINAL FLUID IN PATIENTS WITH NEUROPSYCHIATRIC SYSTEMIC LUPUS ERYTHEMATOSUS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH DAMAGE ACCRUAL OF NON-NEUROPSYCHIATRIC DOMAINS AS WELL AS THAT OF NEUROPSYCHIATRIC DOMAINS

Background

Neuropsychiatric systemic lupus erythematosus (NPSLE) is one of severe organ manifestations and directly associated with neuropsychiatric damages, such as cerebral vascular accident, cognitive impairment, or seizures. However, factors associated with damage accrual of neuropsychiatric and non-neuropsychiatric domains in NPSLE patients remain unknown.

Objectives

The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with damage accrual in patients with NPSLE.

Methods

We reviewed all patients with SLE who had attended our hospital between January 2010 to December 2020 retrospectively and identified those with NPSLE. We analyzed clinical characteristics and laboratory data including cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) in association with the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics/American College of Rheumatology (SLICC/ACR) damage index (SDI) progression after the onset of NPSLE.

Results

461 patients with SLE were reviewed. Among them, 37 (8.0%) were diagnosed with NPSLE. Thirty-six patients were included in the analysis after excluding one patient with insufficient information. Seventeen (47.2%) patients were diagnosed with NPSLE at the same time with SLE diagnosis and 19 patients were diagnosed at relapse. At NPSLE onset, the mean age was 33.7 years, 35 were female, and the mean SLEDAI-2K was 21.8. Eighteen (50.0%) patients had active lupus nephritis simultaneously at the onset of NPSLE. The most frequent NPSLE types according to the 1999 ACR classification were lupus headache in 10 patients, followed by cerebrovascular disease in 7, seizure disorders in 6, acute confusional state, psychosis and mononeuropathy in 3, and aseptic meningitis in 2. All patients were treated with glucocorticoids, and the mean initial dose of prednisolone was 52.3 mg/day with steroid pulse therapy in 19 patients. Thirty (83.3%) patients were treated with concomitant immunosuppressive treatments. During the observation period with the mean of 10.0 years, 17 (47.2%) patients developed at least one point of SDI. Among them, 9 patients (25.0%) had neuropsychiatric damage progression including cerebrovascular accident in 6, seizures requiring drug treatment for more than 6 months in 2, and cognitive impairment in 1. Non-neuropsychiatric damage was also increased such musculoskeletal in 5, ocular in 3, cardiovascular in 2, renal, gastrointestinal, premature gonadal failure, diabetes, and malignancy in each one case. Neither neuropsychiatric nor overall damage progression were associated with SLEDAI-2K, anti-cardiolipin antibodies positivity, abnormal electroencephalogram, abnormal single photon-emission computed tomography at NPSLE onset or kinds of immunosuppressive treatments. In 21 patients who underwent CSF examination, the high level of CSF IL-6 was associated with neuropsychiatric damage progression (p=0.032). Also, high levels of CSF protein (p=0.030), cell counts (p=0.007), and IL-6 (p=0.032) were associated with overall SDI progression.

Conclusion

CSF IL-6 concentrations are associated with neuropsychiatric damage progression, and high CSF protein, cell counts and IL-6 at onset in patients with NPSLE can predict overall damage accrual.

References

[1]Liang MH, Corzillius M, Bae SC, et al. The American College of Rheumatology nomenclature and case definitions for neuropsychiatric lupus syndromes. Arthritis Rheum 1999; 42: 599–608.

[2]Gladman D, Ginzler E, Goldsmith C, et al. The development and initial validation of the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index for systemic lupus erythematosus. Arthritis Rheum 1996; 39: 363–369.

Disclosure of Interests

None declared

POS0459 APTAMER-BASED PROTEOMIC SCREENING IN IDENTIFICATION OF PATHOGENIC SIGNAL PATHWAY AND URINARY BIOMARKERS ASSOCIATED WITH HISTOLOGICAL FINDINGS IN LUPUS NEPHRITIS

Background

The current gold standard for the diagnosis and classification, assessment of the severity of lupus nephritis (LN) is a renal biopsy. On the other hand, since the procedure is highly invasive, there is a pressing need to identify biomarkers for predicting the presence and its histological severity of LN. In addition, the background pathogenesis of each histological findings is not clearly understood.

Objectives

The purpose of this study was to elucidate the urine biomarkers for predicting the presence and the severity of histological findings of LN, and to search the pathogenic signal pathway.

Methods

Urine samples from 24 biopsy-proven active LN patients were initially screened for the levels of 1305 distinct human proteins using an aptamer-based-targeted proteomic assay. We developed histological scoring system based on ISN/RPS lesion definitions and classification, NIH activity and chronicity score. Two experienced evaluators assessed the histological scores. Cluster analysis and pathway analysis were performed.

Results

A total of 24 LN patients were included: 20 (83%) had a proliferative histological class (III or IV +/-V), 4 (17%) pure membranous (V). Through cluster analysis, several histological subgroups were extracted according to correlation with each histological finding, and proteins which corelated with each histological scores were analyzed. We focused on two subgroups: one in which including active glomerular histological findings (endocapillary hypercellularity, karyorrhexis, neutrophil infiltration, subendothelial deposits) and the other in which including interstitial histological findings (interstitial inflammation, interstitial fibrosis, tubular atrophy). Histological scores in the former group showed strong positive correlation with protein group which contained 59 proteins (Group A), including CCL21, CXCL10, VCAM1. Histological scores in the latter group corelated with another protein group which contained 85 proteins (Group B), including MCP-1, CCL11. Ingenuity Pathway Analysis showed 16 pathways (PDGF Signaling, Granulocyte Adhesion and Diapedesis, etc) were upregulated in Group A and 11 pathways (IL-17 signaling, Fibrosis signaling pathway, etc) upregulated in Group B. Among group A and group B urine proteins, those showed strong correlation between respective histological findings were validated with ELISA assays.

Conclusion

An aptamer-based-targeted proteomic assay screening by combining with renal histological scoring system suggested several urine proteins can predict the severity and the presence of major renal histological findings, and suggested to be related with the pathogenesis in patients with LN.

Disclosure of Interests

Kazuoto Hiramoto: None declared, Shuntaro Saito: None declared, Hironari Hanaoka: None declared, Katsuya Suzuki: None declared, Jun Kikuchi: None declared, Hiroyuki Fukui: None declared, Ryo Takano Employee of: Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Corporation Sohyaku, Fumihiko Miyoshi Employee of: Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Corporation Sohyaku, Noriyasu Seki Employee of: Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Corporation Sohyaku, Kunio Sugahara Employee of: Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Corporation Sohyaku, Yuko Kaneko: None declared, Tsutomu Takeuchi: None declared.

POS1183 RISK FACTORS FOR CYTOMEGALOVIRUS INFECTION IN PATIENTS WITH RHEUMATIC DISEASE; SINGLE-CENTER PROSPECTIVE COHORT STUDY

Background

Cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection is one of serious opportunistic infections for immunosuppressed patients, therefore, identifying patients at risk for CMV infection is of importance. However, no prospective study about CMV infection in systemic rheumatic disease has been reported.

Objectives

To identify risk factors relevant with CMV infection in patients with systemic rheumatic disease during intensive remission induction therapy.

Methods

Consecutive systemic rheumatic disease cases who started intensive immunosuppressive therapy from February 2017 until February 2019 were enrolled. Serum CMV-IgG was measured before the induction therapy, and subsequently, CMV pp65 antigen was monitored weekly. Patients were divided into 2 groups according to the presence or absence of CMV infection, and risk factors for CMV infection were analyzed.

Results

157 patients consisting of 136 CMV-IgG positive and 21 CMV-IgG negative patients were enrolled in the study. Mean age was 60.8 ± 17.4 y/o, and female was 70.7%. The underlying diseases were following; vasculitides 54, systemic lupus erythematosus 27, polymyositis/dermatomyositis 25, rheumatoid arthritis 14, IgG4-related disease 13, mixed connected tissue disease 6, Behçet disease 5, adult-onset Still’s disease 4, and others 9. The initial dose of glucocorticoid (GC) was 48.4 ± 11.5 mg/day (0.91 ± 0.16 mg/kg/day) as prednisolone (PSL) with additional methylprednisolone (mPSL) pulse therapy being conducted in 44 (28.0%). Concomitant immunosuppressive therapies were intravenous cyclophosphamide (IVCY) in 55, calcineurin inhibitor 27, mycophenolate mofetil 16, hydroxychloroquine 5, and methotrexate 4. Concomitant biological agents were rituximab 12, tocilizumab 6, infliximab 2, golimumab 1, and abatacept 1. CMV infection occurred in 52 patients (33.1%), and all of them were CMV-IgG positive before induction therapy (38.2% in the CMV-IgG positive patients). Univariable analysis revealed initial PSL dose >0.91 mg/kg/day (odds ratio [OR] 5.2, p<0.01), IVCY (OR 3.4, p<0.01), diabetes mellitus (OR 5.2, p<0.01), and a history of malignancy (OR 2.9, p=0.02) were independent risk factors for CMV infection. CMV antiviral drugs were administered in 22 patients (42.3%). At the first detection of CMV pp65 antigen, PSL dose ≥37.5 mg/day (OR 5294.8, p<0.01), CMV pp65 antigen-positive cells ≥2 cells/2 slides (OR 16.0, p = 0.04), and serum albumin levels <3.0 g/dL (OR 26.3, p=0.01) were associated with subsequent CMV antiviral drug administration.

Conclusion

CMV infection occurred only in CMV-IgG positive patients with systemic rheumatic diseases who were undergoing intensive remission induction therapy. CMV infection was related with treatment regimen and comorbidities, and the necessity of CMV antiviral treatment was predicted with prednisolone dose, the number of CMV pp65 antigen positive cells, and albumin levels at the first detection of CMV pp65 antigen.

Disclosure of Interests

None declared

POS0257 COMPARISON OF SARS-CoV-2 VACCINE RESPONSE IN PATIENTS WITH INFLAMMATORY RHEUMATIC DISEASE; mRNA-1273 VACCINE INDUCES HIGHER HUMORAL IMMUNOGENICITY THAN BNT162b2

Background

The SARS-CoV-2 messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) and mRNA-1273 (Moderna) have benefitted all countries amid the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) crisis. Whereas both of them have shown efficacy in preventing COVID-19 illness in healthy participants, there is paucity of data about immunogenicity and safety of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines in patients with autoimmune, inflammatory rheumatic disease. Recent observational studies evaluated mainly BNT162b2, suggesting that glucocorticoids, immunosuppressive agents impair SARS-CoV-2 vaccine responses. However, difference in immune reactions and safety between BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 have not been clarified in patients with inflammatory rheumatic diseases.

Objectives

To assess humoral and T cell immune responses and safety profiles after two doses of different mRNA vaccine against SARS-CoV-2; BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273.

Methods

We enrolled consecutive, previously uninfected patients with inflammatory rheumatic diseases receiving mRNA vaccine including BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273. Healthy participants receiving BNT162b2 were also recruited as control. Blood samples were obtained 3weeks, 2 months, 3 months, 4 months, and 6 months after second dose of vaccines. We measured titres of neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 and calculated seroconversion rates to evaluate humoral responses. We also assessed T-cell immunity responses by using interferon releasing assay against SARS-CoV-2 in a part of the patients. Answers to questionnaires about adverse reactions were obtained from participants.

Results

A total of 974 patients with inflammatory rheumatic diseases and healthy 630 control participants were enrolled. Among them, 796 patients received BNT162b2, 178 patients received mRNA-1273, and all control participants received BNT162b2. Seroconversion rates and neutralizing antibody titres 3 weeks after vaccination were significantly higher in patients with mRNA-1273 and healthy participants with BNT162b2 compared with patients with BNT162b2; seroconversion rates, 97.2% vs 99.5% vs 83.3%, p<0.001; titers of neutralizing antibodies, 29.4±33.9 IU/mL vs 23.9±14.2 IU/mL vs 10.8±16.5 IU/mL, p<0.001, respectively. On another front, T cell reaction against SARS-CoV-2 was similar in both patients with mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2; interferon gamma levels for antigen 1, 1.2±2.1 IU/mL vs 0.8±2.5 IU/mL, p=0.23; and for antigen 2, 1.4±1.9 IU/mL vs 1.0±2.1 IU/mL, p=0.11, respectively. Regarding adverse reaction of each mRNA vaccine, the frequency of systemic adverse reactions including fever and general fatigue are also significantly higher in patients with mRNA-1273 and healthy controls than patients with BNT162b2; fever, 48.0% vs 44.9% vs 10.2%, p<0.001; general fatigue, 70.4% vs 61.8% vs 31.2%, p<0.001, respectively). In longitudinal measurement, neutralizing antibody titres in patients with BNT162b2 were decreased more rapidly than those in healthy controls; 3.3±3.2 IU/mL in patients with BNT162b2 at 4 months and 3.2±4.7 IU/mL in healthy controls with BNT162b2 at 6 months. We identified age, glucocorticoid dose (prednisolone > 7.5mg), use of immunosuppressants including methotrexate, mycophenolate, cyclophosphamide, and tacrolimus are associated with rapid attenuation of humoral responses in patients with BNT162b2.

Conclusion

Our results demonstrated a significant higher humoral immunogenicity and frequency of systemic adverse reaction of the SARS-CoV-2 mRNA-1273 (Moderna) compared with the BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) in inflammatory rheumatic disease patients. Glucocorticoid and immunosuppressive agents impaired induction and sustention of neutralizing antibody, and earlier third booster vaccination may be required within 4 months, especially for those receiving BNT162b2.

References

[1]Steensels D, Pierlet N, Penders J et al. JAMA. 2021;326(15):1533–1535.

[2]Friedman MA, Curtis JR and Winthrop KL. Ann Rheum Dis 2021;80:1255–1265.

Disclosure of Interests

None declared

Prevalence of and factors associated with late diagnosis of HIV in Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe: Results from population-based nationally representative surveys

INTRODUCTION

Late diagnosis of HIV (LD) increases the risk of morbidity, mortality, and HIV transmission. We used nationally representative data from population-based HIV impact assessment (PHIA) surveys in Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe (2015-2016) to characterize adults at risk of LD and to examine associations between LD and presumed HIV transmission to cohabiting sexual partners.

METHODS

We estimated the prevalence of LD, defined as CD4 count <350 cells/μL, among adults newly diagnosed with HIV during the surveys and odds ratios for associated factors. We linked newly diagnosed adults (index cases) to their household sexual partners and calculated adjusted odds ratios for associations between LD of the index case, viral load of the index case, and duration of HIV exposure in the relationship, and the HIV status of the household sexual partner.

RESULTS

Of 1,804 adults who were newly diagnosed with HIV in the surveys, 49% (882) were diagnosed late. LD was associated with male sex, older age, and almost five times the odds of having an HIV-positive household sexual partner (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 4.65 [95% confidence interval: 2.56-8.45]). Longer duration of HIV exposure in a relationship and higher viral load of the index case were both independently associated with higher odds of having HIV-positive household sexual partners. Individuals with HIV exposure of more than 5 years had more than three times (aOR 3.42 [95% CI: 1.63-7.18]) higher odds of being HIV positive than those with less than 2 years HIV exposure. The odds of being HIV positive were increased in individuals who were in a relationship with an index case with a viral load of 400-3499 copies/mL (aOR 4.06 [95% CI 0.45-36.46]), 3,500-9,999 copies/mL (aOR 11.32 [95% CI: 4.08-31.39]), 10,000-49,999 copies/mL (aOR 17.07 [95% CI: 9.18-31.72]), and ≥50,000 copies/mL (aOR 28.41 [95% CI: 12.18-66.28]) compared to individuals who were in a relationship with an index case with a viral load of <400 copies/mL.

CONCLUSIONS

LD remains a challenge in Southern Africa and is strongly associated with presumed HIV transmission to household sexual partners. Our study underscores the need for earlier HIV diagnosis, particularly among men and older adults, and the importance of index testing.

HIV incidence, viremia, and the national response in Eswatini: Two sequential population-based surveys

With the highest HIV incidence and prevalence globally, the government of Eswatini started a substantial scale-up of HIV treatment and prevention services in 2011. Two sequential large population-based surveys were conducted before and after service expansion to assess the impact of the national response. Cross-sectional, household-based, nationally representative samples of adults, ages 18 to 49 years, were sampled in 2011 and 2016. We measured HIV prevalence, incidence (recent infection based on limiting antigen ≤1.5 optical density units and HIV RNA ≥1000 copies/mL), viral load suppression (HIV RNA <1000 copies/mL among all seropositive adults) and unsuppressed viremia (HIV RNA ≥1000 copies/mL among all, regardless of HIV status) and assessed for temporal changes by conducting a trend analysis of the log ratio of proportions, using a Z statistic distribution. HIV prevalence remained stable from 2011 to 2016 [32% versus 30%, p = 0.10]. HIV incidence significantly declined 48% [2.48% versus 1.30%, p = 0.01]. Incidence remained higher among women than men [2011: 3.16% versus 1.83%; 2016: 1.76% versus 0.86%], with a smaller but significant relative reduction among women [44%; p = 0.04] than men [53%; p = 0.09]. The proportion of seropositive adults with viral load suppression significantly increased from 35% to 71% [p < .001]. The proportion of the total adult population with unsuppressed viremia decreased from 21% to 9% [p < .001]. National HIV incidence in Eswatini decreased by nearly half and viral load suppression doubled over a five-year period. Unsuppressed viremia in the total population decreased 58%. These population-based findings demonstrate the national impact of expanded HIV services in a hyperendemic country.

Anti-PD-1 antibody monotherapy versus anti-PD-1 plus anti-CTLA-4 combination therapy as first-line immunotherapy in unresectable or metastatic mucosal melanoma: a retrospective, multicenter study of 329 Japanese cases (JMAC study)

Background

Anti-programmed cell death protein 1 (PD-1) antibody monotherapy (PD1) has led to favorable responses in advanced non-acral cutaneous melanoma among Caucasian populations; however, recent studies suggest that this therapy has limited efficacy in mucosal melanoma (MCM). Thus, advanced MCM patients are candidates for PD1 plus anti-cytotoxic T lymphocyte-associated antigen-4 (CTLA-4) combination therapy (PD1 + CTLA4). Data on the efficacy of immunotherapy in MCM, however, are limited. We aimed to compare the efficacies of PD1 and PD1 + CTLA4 in Japanese advanced MCM patients.

Patients and methods

We retrospectively assessed advanced MCM patients treated with PD1 or PD1 + CTLA4 at 24 Japanese institutions. Patient baseline characteristics, clinical responses (RECIST), progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS) were estimated using Kaplan–Meier analysis, and toxicity was assessed to estimate the efficacy and safety of PD1 and PD1 + CTLA4.

Results

Altogether, 329 patients with advanced MCM were included in this study. PD1 and PD1 + CTLA4 were used in 263 and 66 patients, respectively. Baseline characteristics were similar between both treatment groups, except for age (median age 71 versus 65 years; P < 0.001). No significant differences were observed between the PD1 and PD1 + CTLA4 groups with respect to objective response rate (26% versus 29%; P = 0.26) or PFS and OS (median PFS 5.9 months versus 6.8 months; P = 0.55, median OS 20.4 months versus 20.1 months; P = 0.55). Cox multivariate survival analysis revealed that PD1 + CTLA4 did not prolong PFS and OS (PFS: hazard ratio 0.83, 95% confidence interval 0.58-1.19, P = 0.30; OS: HR 0.89, 95% confidence interval 0.57-1.38, P = 0.59). The rate of ≥grade 3 immune-related adverse events was higher in the PD1 + CTLA4 group than in the PD1 group (53% versus 17%; P < 0.001).

Conclusions

First-line PD1 + CTLA4 demonstrated comparable clinical efficacy to PD1 in Japanese MCM patients, but with a higher rate of immune-related adverse events.

•

Anti-PD-1 plus anti-CTLA-4 antibody therapy (PD1 + CTLA4) is an option for patients with advanced mucosal melanoma (MCM).

•

Data on the efficacy of PD1 + CTLA4 compared with PD-1 monotherapy (PD1) for MCM, however, are limited.

•

We retrospectively analyzed data from 329 Japanese patients with advanced MCM treated with PD1 or PD1 + CTLA4.

•

No significant differences in objective response rate, progression-free survival, or overall survival were observed.

•

Immune-related adverse events resulting in treatment cessation were higher in the PD1 + CTLA4 group.

Opportunities for Closing the Gap in HIV Diagnosis, Treatment, and Viral Load Suppression in Children in Malawi: Results From a 2015-2016 Population-based HIV Impact Assessment Survey

BACKGROUND

Control of the pediatric HIV epidemic is hampered by gaps in diagnosis and linkage to effective treatment. The 2015-2016 Malawi Population-based HIV impact assessment data were analyzed to identify gaps in pediatric HIV diagnosis, treatment, and viral load suppression.

METHODS

In half of the surveyed households, children ages ≥18 months to <15 years were tested using the national HIV rapid test algorithm. Children ≤18 months reactive by the initial rapid test underwent HIV total nucleic acid polymerase chain reaction confirmatory testing. Blood from HIV-positive children was tested for viral load (VL) and presence of antiretroviral drugs. HIV diagnosis and antiretroviral treatment (ART) use were defined using guardian-reporting or antiretroviral detection.

RESULTS

Of the 6166 children tested, 99 were HIV-positive for a prevalence of 1.5% (95% confidence intervals [CI]: 1.1-1.9) and 8.0% (95% CI: 5.6-10.5) among HIV-exposed children. The prevalence of 1.5% was extrapolated to a national estimate of 119,501 (95% CI: 89,028-149,974) children living with HIV (CLHIV), of whom, 30.7% (95% CI: 20.3-41.1) were previously undiagnosed. Of the 69.3% diagnosed CLHIV, 86.1% (95% CI: 76.8-95.6) were on ART and 57.9% (95% CI: 41.4-74.4) of those on ART had suppressed VL (<1000 HIV RNA copies/mL). Among all CLHIV, irrespective of HIV diagnosis or ART use, 57.7% (95% CI: 45.0-70.5) had unsuppressed VL.

CONCLUSIONS

Critical gaps in HIV diagnosis in children persist in Malawi. The large proportion of CLHIV with unsuppressed VL reflects gaps in diagnosis and need for more effective first- and second-line ART regimens and adherence interventions.

Progress Toward the 90-90-90 HIV Targets in Zimbabwe and Identifying Those Left Behind

OBJECTIVE

We present findings from the nationally representative Zimbabwe Population-based HIV Impact Assessment that characterize Zimbabwe's progress toward the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS 90-90-90 targets.

DESIGN

We conducted a cross-sectional household survey.

METHODS

Consenting adults and children in the household were eligible to participate in Zimbabwe Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (October 2015-August 2016). Participants completed face-to-face interviews and provided blood for HIV, CD4, viral load, and syphilis testing. Viral load suppression (VLS) was defined as HIV RNA <1000 copies/mL. HIV-positive specimens were tested for the presence of selected antiretroviral drugs. Data were weighted. Analysis was restricted to HIV-positive adults aged 15-64 years.

RESULTS

We enrolled 11,098 men and 14,033 women aged 15-64 years. HIV prevalence was 14.1%. Of those living with HIV, 76.8% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 74.9 to 78.7) were aware of their HIV status or had detectable antiretroviral levels. Of these, 88.4% (95% CI: 87.1 to 89.7) were receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART), and of these people, 85.3% (95% CI: 83.4 to 87.1) had VLS. Male sex age 15-34 years and having 1 or more sexual partners were associated with being unaware of one's HIV-positive status. Age <50 years and not taking cotrimoxazole were associated with being less likely to be being both aware and taking ART. Male sex, age <50 years, and taking cotrimoxazole were associated with being on ART but not having VLS.

CONCLUSIONS

Zimbabwe has made great strides toward epidemic control. Focusing resources on case finding, particularly among men, people aged <35 years, and sexually active individuals can help Zimbabwe attain 90-90-90 targets.

Prognostic impact of heart mate risk score among elderly heart failure patients with non-responder for cardiac resynchronization therapy

Background

For patients with severe heart failure (HF) who are not eligible for transplantation, there is destination therapy (DT) that uses a continuous flow left ventricular assist device (LVAD). Implantation of LVAD improves HF and can be expected to improve the prognosis of life. Elderly refractory HF patients with non-responders for cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) may benefit from LVAD as DT. In considering indications of LVAD as DT for the elderly in Japan, conditions such as a low risk of Heart Mate Risk Score (HMRS) have been raised. HMRS has been shown to correlate with mortality in the cohort of LVAD patients enrolled in the Heartmate II trials.

Purpose

Because elderly CRT non-responder refractory HF patients are not indicated for transplantation and may benefit from LVAD as DT in Japan, we aimed to investigate the HMRS and prognosis among elderly CRT non-responders.

Methods

Of 467 patients underwent CRT implantation between 2000 and 2015, 157 were aged 65–75 years old. Of which 59 patients who could be determined to be non-responders based on echocardiographic data were included in this study. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality, the secondary was readmission for HF and appropriate implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) therapy.

Results

The patients' mean age was 68 years, males were 71%. The mean serum creatinine value was 1.1 mg/dl, albumin was 3.8 mg/dl, and BNP was 383 pg/ml. The mean left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) was 26%. The subjects were divided into 3 groups according to HMRS. The average of HMRS was 2.2, the low-risk group included 17 (29%) patients, the medium was 22 (37%), and the high was 20 (34%). There was no significant difference in age, LVEF, BNP, and NYHA functional classification at the time of CRT implantation between three groups. In the low-risk group, creatinine and INR were significantly lower, and albumin was significantly higher compared to the high-risk group. BNP tended to be lower in the low-risk group, but there was no significant difference. The mortality rate by HMRS was 12% in the low-risk group, 36% in the medium-risk group, and 50% in the high-risk group. On the Kaplan-Meier analysis, the low-risk group had a significantly lower mortality rate than the high-risk group (Figure). Furthermore, focusing on HF readmission, the rate of readmission was 59% in the low-risk group, 86% in the medium -risk group, and 65% in the high-risk group, and there was no significant difference between three groups. There was also no significant difference in appropriate ICD therapy between three groups.

Conclusion

Approximately 30% of elderly non-responders of CRT are in the low-risk group by HMRS and their mortality was lower than that of the other two groups. These elderly CRT non-responder patients might be considered a candidate for DT in Japan.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Improving Sampling Efficiency for Determining Pediatric HIV Prevalence in National Surveys: Evidence From 8 Sub-Saharan African Countries

BACKGROUND

Measurement of mother-to-child HIV transmission through population-based surveys requires large sample sizes because of low HIV prevalence among children. We estimate potential improvements in sampling efficiency resulting from a targeted sample design.

SETTING

Eight countries in sub-Saharan Africa with completed Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA) surveys as of 2017.

METHODS

The PHIA surveys used a geographically stratified 2-stage sample design with households sampled from randomly selected census enumeration areas. Children (0-14 years of age) were eligible for HIV testing within a random subsample of households (usually 50%). Estimates of child HIV prevalence in each country were calculated using jackknife replicate weights. We compared sample sizes and precision achieved using this design with a 2-phase disproportionate sample design applied to strata defined by maternal HIV status and mortality.

RESULTS

HIV prevalence among children ranged from 0.4% (95% confidence interval: 0.2 to 0.6) in Tanzania to 2.8% (95% confidence interval: 2.2 to 3.4) in Eswatini with achieved relative standard errors between 11% and 21%. The expected precision improved in the targeted design in all countries included in the analysis, with proportionate reductions in mean squared error ranging from 27% in Eswatini to 61% in Tanzania, assuming an equal sample size.

CONCLUSIONS

Population-based surveys of adult HIV prevalence that also measure child HIV prevalence should consider targeted sampling of children to reduce required sample size, increase precision, and increase the number of positive children tested. The findings from the PHIA surveys can be used as baseline data for informing future sample designs.

Successful Use of Near Point-of-Care Early Infant Diagnosis in NAMPHIA to Improve Turnaround Times in a National Household Survey

BACKGROUND

In the population-based HIV impact assessment surveys, early infant diagnosis (EID) was provided to infants <18 months without a prior diagnosis. For the Namibia population-based HIV impact assessment (NAMPHIA), the GeneXpert platform was assessed for the feasibility of near POC EID testing compared with the standard Roche COBAS AmpliPrep/COBAS TaqMan (CAP/CTM) platform. Quality assurance measures and turnaround time were compared to improve EID results reporting.

METHODS

NAMPHIA participants were screened for HIV exposure using Determine HIV-1/2 rapid test; samples reactive on Determine received EID testing on the GeneXpert instrument and Xpert HIV-1 Qual assay using whole blood. Results were confirmed at the Namibia Institute of Pathology using dried blood spots on the Roche CAP/CTM platform per national guidelines.

RESULTS

Of the 762 screened infants, 61 (8.0%) were Determine-reactive and considered HIV-exposed. Of the 61 exposed infants, 2 were found to be HIV-infected whereas 59 were negative on both GeneXpert and Roche platforms, achieving 100% concordance. Average turnaround time was 3.4 days for the Xpert HIV-1 Qual assay, and average time from collection to testing was 1.0 days for GeneXpert compared with 10.7 days for Roche. No samples failed using GeneXpert whereas 1 sample failed using Roche and was repeated.

CONCLUSION

Quality POC EID testing is feasible in a national survey through extensive training and external quality assurance measures. The use of decentralized POC EID for national testing would provide rapid diagnosis and improve TATs which may prevent loss to follow-up, ensure linkage to care, and improve clinical outcomes for infants.

A Comprehensive Approach to Assuring Quality of Laboratory Testing in HIV Surveys: Lessons Learned From the Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment Project

BACKGROUND

Conducting HIV surveys in resource-limited settings is challenging because of logistics, limited availability of trained personnel, and complexity of testing. We described the procedures and systems deemed critical to ensure high-quality laboratory data in the population-based HIV impact assessments and large-scale household surveys.

METHODS

Laboratory professionals were engaged in every stage of the surveys, including protocol development, site assessments, procurement, training, quality assurance, monitoring, analysis, and reporting writing. A tiered network of household, satellite laboratories, and central laboratories, accompanied with trainings, optimized process for blood specimen collection, storage, transport, and real-time monitoring of specimen quality, and test results at each level proved critical in maintaining specimen integrity and high-quality testing. A plausibility review of aggregate merged data was conducted to confirm associations between key variables as a final quality check for quality of laboratory results.

RESULTS

Overall, we conducted a hands-on training for 3355 survey staff across 13 surveys, with 160-387 personnel trained per survey on biomarker processes. Extensive training and monitoring demonstrated that overall, 99% of specimens had adequate volume and 99.8% had no hemolysis, indicating high quality. We implemented quality control and proficiency testing for testing, resolved discrepancies, verified >300 Pima CD4 instruments, and monitored user errors. Aggregate data review for plausibility further confirmed the high quality of testing.

CONCLUSIONS

Ongoing engagement of laboratory personnel to oversee processes at all levels of the surveys is critical for successful national surveys. High-quality population-based HIV impact assessments laboratory data ensured reliable results and demonstrated the impact of HIV programs in 13 countries.

Population Viral Load, Viremia, and Recent HIV-1 Infections: Findings From Population-Based HIV Impact Assessments (PHIAs) in Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Zambia

BACKGROUND

HIV population viral load (PVL) can reflect antiretroviral therapy program effectiveness and transmission potential in a community. Using nationally representative data from household surveys conducted in Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Zambia in 2015-16, we examined the association between various VL measures and the probability of at least one recent HIV-1 infection in the community.

METHODS

We used limiting-antigen avidity enzyme immunoassay, viral load suppression (VLS) (HIV RNA <1000 copies/mL), and antiretrovirals in the blood to identify recent HIV-1 cases.

RESULTS

Among 1510 enumeration areas (EAs) across the 3 surveys, 52,036 adults aged 15-59 years resided in 1363 (90.3%) EAs with at least one HIV-positive adult consenting to interview and blood draw and whose VL was tested. Mean HIV prevalence across these EAs was 13.1% [95% confidence intervals (CI) 12.7 to 13.5]. Mean VLS prevalence across these EAs was 58.7% (95% CI: 57.3 to 60.0). In multivariable analysis, PVL was associated with a recent HIV-1 case in that EA (adjusted odds ratio: 1.4, 95% CI: 1.2 to 1.6, P = 0.001). VLS prevalence was inversely correlated with recent infections (adjusted odds ratio: 0.3, 95% CI: 0.1 to 0.6, P = 0.004). The 90-90-90 indicators, namely, the prevalence of HIV diagnosis, antiretroviral therapy coverage, and VLS at the EA level, were inversely correlated with HIV recency at the EA level.

CONCLUSIONS

We found a strong association between PVL and VLS prevalence and recent HIV-1 infection at the EA level across 3 southern African countries with generalized HIV epidemics. These results suggest that population-based measures of VLS in communities may serve as a proxy for epidemic control.

Evaluating Nonresponse Weighting Adjustment for the Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment Surveys on Incorporating Survey Outcomes

BACKGROUND

The nonresponse weighting adjustment of the Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA) surveys uses the weighting class method in combination with a tree analysis to identify predictors significant to response propensity. Variable selection for this type of nonresponse adjustment identifies auxiliary variables correlated with response propensity alone and produces 1 set of weights applicable for all analyses of the survey data. An alternative approach identifies auxiliary variables correlated to both the response probability and selected key outcome variables. This approach may identify a different set of variables for the nonresponse adjustments and may produce more efficient estimates for the key outcome variables.

SETTING

The PHIA surveys from 2016 to 2017.

METHODS

Weighting class, joint-classification, and two-step modeling.

RESULTS

There was little difference among estimates produced by the alternative weighting methods and the PHIA estimates. The joint-classification method produced more efficient estimates (ie, smaller design effects) compared with the PHIA method, while the two-step method was inconclusive.

CONCLUSIONS

The efficiency of the estimates produced by the PHIA weighting method closely resembles those specifically targeted at key survey outcomes and serves well as a multipurpose weight.

HIV-1 Recent Infection Testing Algorithm With Antiretroviral Drug Detection to Improve Accuracy of Incidence Estimates

BACKGROUND

HIV-1 incidence calculation currently includes recency classification by HIV-1 incidence assay and unsuppressed viral load (VL ≥ 1000 copies/mL) in a recent infection testing algorithm (RITA). However, persons with recent classification not virally suppressed and taking antiretroviral (ARV) medication may be misclassified.

SETTING

We used data from 13 African household surveys to describe the impact of an ARV-adjusted RITA on HIV-1 incidence estimates.

METHODS

HIV-seropositive samples were tested for recency using the HIV-1 Limiting Antigen (LAg)-Avidity enzyme immunoassay, HIV-1 viral load, ARVs used in each country, and ARV drug resistance. LAg-recent result was defined as normalized optical density values ≤1.5. We compared HIV-1 incidence estimates using 2 RITA: RITA1: LAg-recent + VL ≥ 1000 copies/mL and RITA2: RITA1 + undetectable ARV. We explored RITA2 with self-reported ARV use and with clinical history.

RESULTS

Overall, 357 adult HIV-positive participants were classified as having recent infection with RITA1. RITA2 reclassified 55 (15.4%) persons with detectable ARV as having long-term infection. Those with detectable ARV were significantly more likely to be aware of their HIV-positive status (84% vs. 10%) and had higher levels of drug resistance (74% vs. 26%) than those without detectable ARV. RITA2 incidence was lower than RITA1 incidence (range, 0%-30% decrease), resulting in decreased estimated new infections from 390,000 to 341,000 across the 13 countries. Incidence estimates were similar using detectable or self-reported ARV (R2 > 0.995).

CONCLUSIONS

Including ARV in RITA2 improved the accuracy of HIV-1 incidence estimates by removing participants with likely long-term HIV infection.

Population-Based HIV Impact Assessments Survey Methods, Response, and Quality in Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Zambia

BACKGROUND

The population-based HIV impact assessment (population-based HIV impact assessments) surveys are among the first to estimate national adult HIV incidence, subnational prevalence of viral load suppression, and pediatric HIV prevalence. We summarize the survey methods implemented in Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Zambia, as well as response rates and quality metrics.

METHODS

Each cross-sectional, household-based survey used a 2-stage cluster design. Survey preparations included sample design, questionnaire development, tablet programming for informed consent and data collection, community mobilization, establishing a network of satellite laboratories, and fieldworker training. Interviewers collected demographic, behavioral, and clinical information using tablets. Blood was collected for home-based HIV testing and counseling (HBTC) and point-of-care CD4+ T-cell enumeration with results immediately returned. HIV-positive blood samples underwent laboratory-based confirmatory testing, HIV incidence testing, RNA polymerase chain reaction (viral load), DNA polymerase chain reaction (early infant diagnosis), and serum antiretroviral drug detection. Data were weighted for survey design, and chi square automatic interaction detection-based methods were used to adjust for nonresponse.

RESULTS

Each survey recruited a nationally representative, household-based sample of children and adults over a 6-10-month period in 2015 and 2016. Most (84%-90%) of the 12,000-14,000 eligible households in each country participated in the survey, with 77%-81% of eligible adults completing an interview and providing blood for HIV testing. Among eligible children, 59%-73% completed HIV testing. Across the 3 surveys, 97.8% of interview data were complete and had no errors.

CONCLUSION

Conducting a national population-based HIV impact assessment with immediate return of HIV and other point-of-care test results was feasible, and data quality was high.

Data Architecture to Support Real-Time Data Analytics for the Population-Based HIV Impact Assessments

BACKGROUND AND SETTING

Electronic data capture facilitates timely use of data. Population-based HIV impact assessments (PHIAs) were led by host governments, with funding from the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, technical assistance from the Centers for Disease Control, and implementation support from ICAP at Columbia University. We described data architectures, code-based processes, and resulting data volume and quality for 14 national PHIA surveys with concurrent timelines and varied country-level data governance (2015-2020).

METHODS

PHIA project data were collected through tablets, point-of-care and laboratory testing instruments, and inventory management systems, using open-source software, vendor solutions, and custom-built software. Data were securely uploaded to the PHIA data warehouse daily or weekly and then used to populate survey-monitoring dashboards and return timely laboratory-based test results on an ongoing basis. Automated data processing allowed timely reporting of survey results.

RESULTS

Fourteen data architectures were successfully established, and data from more than 450,000 participants in 30,000 files across 13 countries with completed PHIAs, and blood draws producing approximately 6000 aliquots each week per country, were securely collected, transmitted, and processed by 17 full-time equivalent staff. More than 25,600 viral load results were returned to clinics of participants' choice. Data cleaning was not needed for 98.5% of household and 99.2% of individual questionnaires.

CONCLUSION

The PHIA data architecture permitted secure, simultaneous collection and transmission of high-quality interview and biomarker data across multiple countries, quick turnaround time of laboratory-based biomarker results, and rapid dissemination of survey outcomes to guide President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief epidemic control.

Creation of mortality risk calculator using a I-123 mIBG-based machine learning model: differential prediction of arrhythmic death and heart-failure death

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: None.

Background

Although I-123 meta-iodobenzylguanidine (mIBG) has been applied to patients with chronic heart failure (CHF), a diagnostic tool for differential prediction of fatal arrhythmic events (ArE) and heart-failure death (HFD) has been pursued. 

Purpose

The aim of this study was to create a calculator of mortality risk for differentiating mode of cardiac death using a machine learning (ML) method, and to test the accuracy in a new cohort of patients with CHF.

Methods

A total of 529 patients with CHF was used as the training database for ML. The ArE group consisted of patients with arrhythmic death, sudden cardiac death and appropriate therapy by implantable cardioverter defibrillator. A heart-to-mediastinum ratio (H/M) standardized to the medium-energy collimator condition was calculated with a planar anterior mIBG scintigram. The best classifier models for predicting HFD and ArE were determined by four-fold cross validation. Input variables included age, sex, New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class, left ventricular ejection fraction, ischemic etiology, mIBG H/M and washout rate, and b-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) or NT Pro BNP, estimated glomerular filtration rate, hemoglobin, and complications such as diabetes and hypertension. After creating the ML-based model, the constructed classifier functions for ArE, HFD, and survival were exported for subsequent use. A new cohort of patients (n = 312, age 67 ± 13 years, 2015 or later) was used to test the ML-based model.

Results

The training database included 141 events (27%) with ArE (7%) and HFD (20%). Receiver-operating characteristic analysis by four-fold validation showed area under the curve value of 0.90 for HFD and 0.73 for ArE. Among various ML methods, the logistic regression method demonstrated the most stable calculation of the probability of ArE followed by random forest and gradient boosted tree methods. Therefore, the logistic-regression method was used for calculating both HFD and ArE probabilities. In the test cohort, patients with a high HFD probability &gt;8% resulted in 6.3-fold higher HFD than those with low probability (≤ 8%). Patients with high ArE probability &gt;8% showed 2.5-fold higher ArE than those with low probability (≤ 8%).

Conclusion

The ML-based mortality risk calculator could be used for stratifying patients at high and low risks, which might be useful for estimating appropriate treatment strategy.

Penetration of MeV electrons into the mesosphere accompanying pulsating aurorae

Pulsating aurorae (PsA) are caused by the intermittent precipitations of magnetospheric electrons (energies of a few keV to a few tens of keV) through wave-particle interactions, thereby depositing most of their energy at altitudes ~ 100 km. However, the maximum energy of precipitated electrons and its impacts on the atmosphere are unknown. Herein, we report unique observations by the European Incoherent Scatter (EISCAT) radar showing electron precipitations ranging from a few hundred keV to a few MeV during a PsA associated with a weak geomagnetic storm. Simultaneously, the Arase spacecraft has observed intense whistler-mode chorus waves at the conjugate location along magnetic field lines. A computer simulation based on the EISCAT observations shows immediate catalytic ozone depletion at the mesospheric altitudes. Since PsA occurs frequently, often in daily basis, and extends its impact over large MLT areas, we anticipate that the PsA possesses a significant forcing to the mesospheric ozone chemistry in high latitudes through high energy electron precipitations. Therefore, the generation of PsA results in the depletion of mesospheric ozone through high-energy electron precipitations caused by whistler-mode chorus waves, which are similar to the well-known effect due to solar energetic protons triggered by solar flares.

Constraints on Cosmic Strings Using Data from the Third Advanced LIGO-Virgo Observing Run

We search for gravitational-wave signals produced by cosmic strings in the Advanced LIGO and Virgo full O3 dataset. Search results are presented for gravitational waves produced by cosmic string loop features such as cusps, kinks, and, for the first time, kink-kink collisions. A template-based search for short-duration transient signals does not yield a detection. We also use the stochastic gravitational-wave background energy density upper limits derived from the O3 data to constrain the cosmic string tension Gμ as a function of the number of kinks, or the number of cusps, for two cosmic string loop distribution models. Additionally, we develop and test a third model that interpolates between these two models. Our results improve upon the previous LIGO-Virgo constraints on Gμ by 1 to 2 orders of magnitude depending on the model that is tested. In particular, for the one-loop distribution model, we set the most competitive constraints to date: Gμ≲4×10^{-15}. In the case of cosmic strings formed at the end of inflation in the context of grand unified theories, these results challenge simple inflationary models.

Constraints on Cosmic Strings Using Data from the Third Advanced LIGO-Virgo Observing Run

We search for gravitational-wave signals produced by cosmic strings in the Advanced LIGO and Virgo full O3 dataset. Search results are presented for gravitational waves produced by cosmic string loop features such as cusps, kinks, and, for the first time, kink-kink collisions. A template-based search for short-duration transient signals does not yield a detection. We also use the stochastic gravitational-wave background energy density upper limits derived from the O3 data to constrain the cosmic string tension Gμ as a function of the number of kinks, or the number of cusps, for two cosmic string loop distribution models. Additionally, we develop and test a third model that interpolates between these two models. Our results improve upon the previous LIGO-Virgo constraints on Gμ by 1 to 2 orders of magnitude depending on the model that is tested. In particular, for the one-loop distribution model, we set the most competitive constraints to date: Gμ≲4×10^{-15}. In the case of cosmic strings formed at the end of inflation in the context of grand unified theories, these results challenge simple inflationary models.

Effects of age at estrogen replacement therapy initiation on trabecular bone score in Japanese adults with Turner syndrome

The effects of the age at estrogen replacement therapy (ERT) initiation on bone quality in Turner syndrome were evaluated using trabecular bone score. Early puberty ERT positively correlated with increase in bone quality. Early initiation of ERT is necessary for the acquisition of bone quality as well as bone density.

INTRODUCTION

Studies have reported associations between bone mineral density and estrogen replacement therapy (ERT) in Turner syndrome (TS) patients; however, few studies exist on the effect on bone quality. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of the age at ERT initiation on bone quality of Japanese TS patients, cross-sectionally and longitudinally.

METHODS

Cross-sectionally, 95 TS patients were divided into three groups based on their age at initiation of ERT: A (12-14 years, 11 patients), B (15-17 years, 47 patients), and C (over 18 years, 37 patients). To assess bone quality, trabecular bone score (TBS) was used. The effects of age at initiation and duration of ERT on TBS were examined using multiple regression analysis. In the longitudinal study, 48 patients who underwent dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry multiple times were divided into three groups: D (12-14 years, 8 patients), E (15-17 years, 18 patients), and F (over 18 years, 22 patients). Each group was analyzed for the rate of change in TBS per year.

RESULTS

Cross-sectionally, the TBS showed significant differences among the three groups (TBS A, 1.302; B, 1.299; C, 1.245) (p = 0.013); group C was significantly lower than B (p = 0.014); bone quality was degraded. Multiple regression analysis revealed that age at ERT initiation significantly affected the increase in TBS (p = 0.002). Longitudinally, the rate of change of TBS was not significantly different in the three groups (p = 0.73).

CONCLUSION

Early initiation of ERT may have positive effects on bone quality in TS. Large prospective studies will be needed.

Fungicide Resistance Profiles of Botrytis cinerea Isolates From Michigan Vineyards and Development of a TaqMan Assay for Detection of Fenhexamid Resistance

Botrytis cinerea on grapes causes bunch rot at both pre- and postharvest stages, in which losses can reach up to 100%. Chemical control primarily relies on the prophylactic use of site-specific fungicides. Repeated applications of these products raise the risk of fungicide resistance development in B. cinerea populations, which can result in disease control failures. To determine the extent of resistance, B. cinerea isolates were collected from grape clusters in the northwest and southwest grape growing regions of Michigan in 2014 and 2018 (n = 115 and 125, respectively). These isolates were phenotyped using discriminatory doses of eight fungicides to determine the levels of resistance. Fungicide resistance increased from 2014 to 2018, mostly affecting the active ingredients fenhexamid, fluopyram, and iprodione. B. cinerea isolates resistant to multiple fungicides were detected in 2014 and 2018, with a higher frequency of resistance in 2018. TaqMan real-time PCR has been developed to detect B. cinerea fungicide resistance to fenhexamid and to differentiate the erg27 F412S/I/V alleles. The TaqMan assay was tested for sensitivity, specificity, and reproducibility on purified DNA and infected grape tissue samples. Our data provide essential information to growers about the efficacy for B. cinerea control using the available botryticides. Furthermore, the developed fenhexamid markers will be transferred to diagnostic clinics to assist growers in the management of bunch rot before resistance-related control failures occur.

Sex-related differences in geometry, plaques and shear stress related plaque-progression in human coronary arteries

Background

Atherosclerosis manifests itself differently in women compared to men. Since the pathophysiology of atherosclerotic plaques is known to be related to endothelial shear stress (ESS), it was hypothesized that female compared to male coronary arteries demonstrate a different i) ESS and ii) ESS related plaque progression.

Methods

1183 coronary arteries (male/female:944/239) from the PREDICTION trial were studied for differences in vessel geometry (plaque area (PA) and lumen area (LA)), hemodynamic parameters (flow, minimal ESS over 90 degree arc (minESS) and maximal ESS over 90 degree arc (maxESS)) and ESS related plaque progression (1 year follow up) measured as change in maximal plaque thickness and plaque burden comparing female to male arteries. Arterial geometry and ESS measures were derived from IVUS-based vascular profiling and reported per 3 mm segments. For plaque progression studies minESS was subdivided into low, mid and high (&lt;1,1–1.7,&gt;1.7 Pa). To test statistical differences univariate anova or linear mixed models were used.

Results

13030 3mm-segments (m/f: 10.465/2565) were analyzed. Female compared to male coronary arteries were smaller and presented with less plaque area (Table I). No differences in average ESS, minESS and maxESS were found for male versus female coronary arteries, partly explained by the lower flows in female arteries (Table I). The ESS-related plaque growth showed for both sexes an significant inverse relationship between maximal wall thickness (Figure, left) and plaque burden (Figure, right) and the three minESS categories. However, ESS-related plaque growth was not different for male vs females.

Conclusion

Our data demonstrated that vessel and plaque size are smaller in female compared to male coronary arteries. However, ESS and ESS related plaque progression were not different.

Shear stress related plaque progression

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: None