Functional traits explain waterbirds' host status, subtype richness, and community-level infection risk for avian influenza

Species functional traits can influence pathogen transmission processes, and consequently affect species' host status, pathogen diversity, and community-level infection risk. We here investigated, for 143 European waterbird species, effects of functional traits on host status and pathogen diversity (subtype richness) for avian influenza virus at species level. We then explored the association between functional diversity and HPAI H5Nx occurrence at the community level for 2016/17 and 2021/22 epidemics in Europe. We found that both host status and subtype richness were shaped by several traits, such as diet guild and dispersal ability, and that the community-weighted means of these traits were also correlated with community-level risk of H5Nx occurrence. Moreover, functional divergence was negatively associated with H5Nx occurrence, indicating that functional diversity can reduce infection risk. Our findings highlight the value of integrating trait-based ecology into the framework of diversity-disease relationship, and provide new insights for HPAI prediction and prevention.

Implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for the governance of biodiversity conservation

Maintaining peace and conserving biodiversity hinge on an international system of cooperation codified in institutions, but Russia’s invasion of Ukraine brings recent progress to a crossroads. Against this backdrop, we address some implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for the governance of biodiversity conservation both within and beyond Russia. The Russian invasion of Ukraine threatens the governance system for biodiversity conservation, as it pertains to Russia and beyond, due to three interacting factors: (i) isolation of Russia from the international system, (ii) halt and delay of international cooperation, and (iii) changes in international and domestic policy priorities. We recommend making the existing international system of governance for conserving biodiversity more resilient and adaptable, while aligning security agendas with biodiversity conservation goals.

Protected areas have a mixed impact on waterbirds, but management helps

International policy is focused on increasing the proportion of the Earth's surface that is protected for nature^1,2. Although studies show that protected areas prevent habitat loss^3-6, there is a lack of evidence for their effect on species' populations: existing studies are at local scale or use simple designs that lack appropriate controls^7-13. Here we explore how 1,506 protected areas have affected the trajectories of 27,055 waterbird populations across the globe using a robust before-after control-intervention study design, which compares protected and unprotected populations in the years before and after protection. We show that the simpler study designs typically used to assess protected area effectiveness (before-after or control-intervention) incorrectly estimate effects for 37-50% of populations-for instance misclassifying positively impacted populations as negatively impacted, and vice versa. Using our robust study design, we find that protected areas have a mixed impact on waterbirds, with a strong signal that areas managed for waterbirds or their habitat are more likely to benefit populations, and a weak signal that larger areas are more beneficial than smaller ones. Calls to conserve 30% of the Earth's surface by 2030 are gathering pace¹⁴, but we show that protection alone does not guarantee good biodiversity outcomes. As countries gather to agree the new Global Biodiversity Framework, targets must focus on creating and supporting well-managed protected and conserved areas that measurably benefit populations.

Bird Migration and Avian Influenza: A Comparison of Hydrogen Stable Isotopes and Satellite Tracking Methods

Satellite-based tracking of migratory waterfowl is an important tool for understanding the potential role of wild birds in the long-distance transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza. However, employing this technique on a continental scale is prohibitively expensive. This study explores the utility of stable isotope ratios in feathers in examining both the distances traveled by migratory birds and variation in migration behavior. We compared the satellite-derived movement data of 22 ducks from 8 species captured at wintering areas in Bangladesh, Turkey, and Hong Kong with deuterium ratios (δD) of these and other individuals captured at the same locations. We derived likely molting locations from the satellite tracking data and generated expected isotope ratios based on an interpolated map of δD in rainwater. Although δD was correlated with the distance between wintering and molting locations, surprisingly, measured δD values were not correlated with either expected values or latitudes of molting sites. However, population-level parameters derived from the satellite-tracking data, such as mean distance between wintering and molting locations and variation in migration distance, were reflected by means and variation of the stable isotope values. Our findings call into question the relevance of the rainfall isotope map for Asia for linking feather isotopes to molting locations, and underscore the need for extensive ground truthing in the form of feather-based isoscapes. Nevertheless, stable isotopes from feathers could inform disease models by characterizing the degree to which regional breeding populations interact at common wintering locations. Feather isotopes also could aid in surveying wintering locations to determine where high-resolution tracking techniques (e.g. satellite tracking) could most effectively be employed. Moreover, intrinsic markers such as stable isotopes offer the only means of inferring movement information from birds that have died as a result of infection. In the absence of feather based-isoscapes, we recommend a combination of isotope analysis and satellite-tracking as the best means of generating aggregate movement data for informing disease models.

Space use of wintering waterbirds in India: Influence of trophic ecology on home-range size

Relationship between species’ home range and their other biological traits remains poorly understood, especially in migratory birds due to the difficulty associated with tracking them. Advances in satellite telemetry and remote sensing techniques have proved instrumental in overcoming such challenges. We studied the space use of migratory ducks through satellite telemetry with an objective of understanding the influence of body mass and feeding habits on their home-range sizes. We marked 26 individuals, representing five species of migratory ducks, with satellite transmitters during two consecutive winters in three Indian states. We used kernel methods to estimate home ranges and core use areas of these waterfowl, and assessed the influence of body mass and feeding habits on home-range size. Feeding habits influenced the home-range size of the migratory ducks. Carnivorous ducks had the largest home ranges, herbivorous ducks the smallest, while omnivorous species had intermediate home-ranges. Body mass did not explain variation in home-range size. To our knowledge, this is the first study of its kind on migratory ducks, and it has important implications for their conservation and management.

Eco-virological approach for assessing the role of wild birds in the spread of avian influenza H5N1 along the Central Asian Flyway

A unique pattern of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks has emerged along the Central Asia Flyway, where infection of wild birds has been reported with steady frequency since 2005. We assessed the potential for two hosts of HPAI H5N1, the bar-headed goose (Anser indicus) and ruddy shelduck (Tadorna tadorna), to act as agents for virus dispersal along this 'thoroughfare'. We used an eco-virological approach to compare the migration of 141 birds marked with GPS satellite transmitters during 2005-2010 with: 1) the spatio-temporal patterns of poultry and wild bird outbreaks of HPAI H5N1, and 2) the trajectory of the virus in the outbreak region based on phylogeographic mapping. We found that biweekly utilization distributions (UDs) for 19.2% of bar-headed geese and 46.2% of ruddy shelduck were significantly associated with outbreaks. Ruddy shelduck showed highest correlation with poultry outbreaks owing to their wintering distribution in South Asia, where there is considerable opportunity for HPAI H5N1 spillover from poultry. Both species showed correlation with wild bird outbreaks during the spring migration, suggesting they may be involved in the northward movement of the virus. However, phylogeographic mapping of HPAI H5N1 clades 2.2 and 2.3 did not support dissemination of the virus in a northern direction along the migration corridor. In particular, two subclades (2.2.1 and 2.3.2) moved in a strictly southern direction in contrast to our spatio-temporal analysis of bird migration. Our attempt to reconcile the disciplines of wild bird ecology and HPAI H5N1 virology highlights prospects offered by both approaches as well as their limitations.

Reassortant low-pathogenic avian influenza H5N2 viruses in African wild birds

To investigate the presence and persistence of avian influenza virus in African birds, we monitored avian influenza in wild and domestic birds in two different regions in Nigeria. We found low-pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) H5N2 viruses in three spur-winged geese (Plectropterus gambensis) in the Hadejia-Nguru wetlands. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that all of the genes, except the non-structural (NS) genes, of the LPAI H5N2 viruses were more closely related to genes recently found in wild and domestic birds in Europe. The NS genes formed a sister group to South African and Zambian NS genes. This suggested that the Nigerian LPAI H5N2 viruses found in wild birds were reassortants exhibiting an NS gene that circulated for at least 7 years in African birds and is part of the African influenza gene pool, and genes that were more recently introduced into Africa from Eurasia, most probably by intercontinental migratory birds. Interestingly the haemagglutinin and neuraminidase genes formed a sister branch to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N2 strains found in the same wild bird species in the same wetland only 1 year earlier. However, they were not the closest known relatives of each other, suggesting that their presence in the wetland resulted from two separate introductions. The presence of LPAI H5N2 in wild birds in the Hadejia-Nguru wetlands, where wild birds and poultry occasionally mix, provides ample opportunity for infection across species boundaries, with the potential risk of generating HPAI viruses after extensive circulation in poultry.

Flying over an infected landscape: distribution of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 risk in South Asia and satellite tracking of wild waterfowl

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus persists in Asia, posing a threat to poultry, wild birds, and humans. Previous work in Southeast Asia demonstrated that HPAI H5N1 risk is related to domestic ducks and people. Other studies discussed the role of migratory birds in the long distance spread of HPAI H5N1. However, the interplay between local persistence and long-distance dispersal has never been studied. We expand previous geospatial risk analysis to include South and Southeast Asia, and integrate the analysis with migration data of satellite-tracked wild waterfowl along the Central Asia flyway. We find that the population of domestic duck is the main factor delineating areas at risk of HPAI H5N1 spread in domestic poultry in South Asia, and that other risk factors, such as human population and chicken density, are associated with HPAI H5N1 risk within those areas. We also find that satellite tracked birds (Ruddy Shelduck and two Bar-headed Geese) reveal a direct spatio-temporal link between the HPAI H5N1 hot-spots identified in India and Bangladesh through our risk model, and the wild bird outbreaks in May-June-July 2009 in China (Qinghai Lake), Mongolia, and Russia. This suggests that the continental-scale dynamics of HPAI H5N1 are structured as a number of persistence areas delineated by domestic ducks, connected by rare transmission through migratory waterfowl.

Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza in Europe: the risks associated with wild birds

The infection of wild birds by highly pathogenic strains of avian influenza (Al) virus was virtually unknown--apart from one instance of the disease appearing in common terns in South Africa in 1961--before the Asian strain of highly pathogenic AI virus (AIV), H5N1, began to expand across the world. Outbreaks of clinical disease in Eurasia have resulted in visible mortality among populations of free-ranging wild birds in a multitude of species. The circulation pattern of influenza viruses in natural ecosystems results from a selection pressure towards strains which are indirectly transmitted by droppings from water birds and contaminated fomites, and which exhibit low pathogenicity. Some of these viruses, of the subtypes H5 or H7, can mutate into highly pathogenic strains after being introduced into domestic poultry farms. The maintenance of highly pathogenic AIV (HPAIV) H5N1 in several parts of the world exposes wild birds to infected poultry, resulting in long-distance virus transmission. There is great concern that these wild birds may, in turn, propagate these HPAIV or introduce them into domestic birds. Rigorous disease control and biosecurity measures to protect poultry farms are the only solution presently available to mitigate such a risk.