A near real-time web-system for predicting fire spread across the Cerrado biome

Wildfires are aggravating due to climate change. Public policies need territorial intelligence to prevent and promptly fight fires, especially in vast regions like Brazil. To this end, we have developed a fire-spread prediction system for the Brazilian Cerrado, the biome most affected by wildfires in South America. The system automatically uploads hot pixels and satellite data to calculate maps of fuels loads, vegetation moisture, and probability of burning for simulating fire spread thrice a day for the entire Cerrado at 25 ha and for nine conservation units at 0.04 ha spatial resolution. In both versions, the model attains 65-89% of spatial match. Model results together with ancillary data, e.g., historical burned areas and annual CO₂ emissions from fires, are available on an interactive web-platform that serves as a tool for fire prevention and fight, particularly in the selected conservation units where the platform is being used for daily operations.

The gathering firestorm in southern Amazonia

Wildfires, exacerbated by extreme weather events and land use, threaten to change the Amazon from a net carbon sink to a net carbon source. Here, we develop and apply a coupled ecosystem-fire model to quantify how greenhouse gas-driven drying and warming would affect wildfires and associated CO₂ emissions in the southern Brazilian Amazon. Regional climate projections suggest that Amazon fire regimes will intensify under both low- and high-emission scenarios. Our results indicate that projected climatic changes will double the area burned by wildfires, affecting up to 16% of the region's forests by 2050. Although these fires could emit as much as 17.0 Pg of CO₂ equivalent to the atmosphere, avoiding new deforestation could cut total net fire emissions in half and help prevent fires from escaping into protected areas and indigenous lands. Aggressive efforts to eliminate ignition sources and suppress wildfires will be critical to conserve southern Amazon forests.

BioDinamica: a toolkit for analyses of biodiversity and biogeography on the Dinamica-EGO modelling platform

Biogeography and macroecology are at the heart of the debate on ecology and evolution. We have developed the BioDinamica package, a suite of user-friendly graphical programs for analysing spatial patterns of biogeography and macroecology. BioDinamica includes analyses of beta-diversity, species richness, endemicity, phylo-diversity, species distribution models, predictive models of biodiversity patterns, and several tools for spatial biodiversity analysis. BioDinamica consists of a sub-library of Dinamica-EGO operators developed by integrating EGO native functions with R scripts. The BioDinamica operators can be assembled to create complex analytical and simulation models through the EGO graphical programming interface. In addition, we make available “Wizard” tutorials for end users. BioDinamica can be downloaded free of charge from the Dinamica EGO submodel store. The tools made available in BioDinamica not only facilitate complex biodiversity analyses, they also help develop state-of-the-art spatial models for biogeography and macroecology studies.

Modelling Highly Biodiverse Areas in Brazil

Traditional conservation techniques for mapping highly biodiverse areas assume there to be satisfactory knowledge about the geographic distribution of biodiversity. There are, however, large gaps in biological sampling and hence knowledge shortfalls. This problem is even more pronounced in the tropics. Indeed, the use of only a few taxonomic groups or environmental surrogates for modelling biodiversity is not viable in mega-diverse countries, such as Brazil. To overcome these limitations, we developed a comprehensive spatial model that includes phylogenetic information and other several biodiversity dimensions aimed at mapping areas with high relevance for biodiversity conservation. Our model applies a genetic algorithm tool for identifying the smallest possible region within a unique biota that contains the most number of species and phylogenetic diversity, as well as the highest endemicity and phylogenetic endemism. The model successfully pinpoints small highly biodiverse areas alongside regions with knowledge shortfalls where further sampling should be conducted. Our results suggest that conservation strategies should consider several taxonomic groups, the multiple dimensions of biodiversity, and associated sampling uncertainties.

Dynamic and diverse amphibian assemblages: Can we differentiate natural processes from human induced changes?

Amphibians are sensitive to anthropogenic habitat alterations but also respond to natural drivers of assemblage composition at many levels. Additionally, they are usually hard to detect in field inventories. We used a multiscale approach, from microhabitat to the landscape levels, to try to understand the effects of natural changes, and try to distinguish them from the effects of landscape level anthropogenic changes, on dynamic and diverse anuran assemblages, taking imperfect detection into account. We conducted thorough field inventories in 16 streams at Serra do Cipó, in the southern portion of Espinhaço Mountain Range, southeastern Brazil, during two time periods separated by 16 years. We compared species richness and diversity between periods, sampling both tadpoles and adult frogs. We quantified tadpole microhabitat availability, alterations in immediate riparian vegetation, and changes in classes of land cover within buffers around streams (adult habitats) to test for their effects on species composition. We also tested for effects of human occupancy around streams on nestedness and turnover components of species diversity. Microhabitats and riparian vegetation explained some of the changes in species composition (or detection) between time periods. Nestedness seemed to be influenced by the stability of the landscape. Detectabilities were too low to support robust occupancy estimates for most species. Natural changes in local habitats occupied by anurans in montane meadows are likely to influence species distribution. Some species with robust estimates experienced change in their occupancy over the studied 16-year interval, although no anthropogenic causes could be directly associated with such changes. The low detectability of most species, even with thorough sampling effort, makes it very hard to detect amphibian declines and possibly tell them apart from natural population fluctuations. New techniques are needed that improve species detectability in such diverse tropical habitats.

Current guidelines for prostate cancer screening: A systematic review and minimal core proposal

OBJECTIVE

Considering the importance of screening for prostate cancer, the possibility of damage resulting from indiscriminate screening and the difficulty of disclosure and adherence to the main guidelines on the subject, we aimed to identify current guidelines, look for common approaches and establish a core of conducts.

METHOD

Systematic review of the literature on screening practice guidelines for prostate cancer searching the databases PubMed, Lilacs and Google Scholar and active search in the sites of several national health entities.

RESULTS

Twelve (12) guidelines were selected, whose analysis resulted in the identification of six common points of conduct, with the following minimum core of recommendations: (1) screening indication or not: must be individualized, and preceded by an informed decision; (2) tests used: PSA with or without rectal digital examination; (3) age at which initiate testing in men in general risk: 50-55 years; (4) age at which to initiate testing in men at increased risk: 40-45 years; (5) the interval between screening: annual or biennial; and (6) age at which to discontinue testing: 70 years-old or life expectancy less than 10 years.

CONCLUSION

Although there are differences between them, it was possible to establish a minimum core of conducts that may be useful in the daily practice of the physician.

Evolutionarily significant units of the critically endangered leaf frog Pithecopus ayeaye (Anura, Phyllomedusidae) are not effectively preserved by the Brazilian protected areas network

Protected areas (PAs) are essential for biodiversity conservation, but their coverage is considered inefficient for the preservation of all species. Many species are subdivided into evolutionarily significant units (ESUs) and the effectiveness of PAs in protecting them needs to be investigated. We evaluated the usefulness of the Brazilian PAs network in protecting ESUs of the critically endangered Pithecopus ayeaye through ongoing climate change. This species occurs in a threatened mountaintop ecosystem known as campos rupestres. We used multilocus DNA sequences to delimit geographic clusters, which were further validated as ESUs with a coalescent approach. Ecological niche modeling was used to estimate spatial changes in ESUs' potential distributions, and a gap analysis was carried out to evaluate the effectiveness of the Brazilian PAs network to protect P. ayeaye in the face of climate changes. We tested the niche overlap between ESUs to gain insights for potential management alternatives for the species. Pithecopus ayeaye contains at least three ESUs isolated in distinct mountain regions, and one of them is not protected by any PA. There are no climatic niche differences between the units, and only 4% of the suitable potential area of the species is protected in present and future projections. The current PAs are not effective in preserving the intraspecific diversity of P. ayeaye in its present and future range distributions. The genetic structure of P. ayeaye could represent a typical pattern in campos rupestres endemics, which should be considered for evaluating its conservation status.

Biodiversity conservation gaps in the Brazilian protected areas

Although Brazil is a megadiverse country and thus a conservation priority, no study has yet quantified conservation gaps in the Brazilian protected areas (PAs) using extensive empirical data. Here, we evaluate the degree of biodiversity protection and knowledge within all the Brazilian PAs through a gap analysis of vertebrate, arthropod and angiosperm occurrences and phylogenetic data. Our results show that the knowledge on biodiversity in most Brazilian PAs remain scant as 71% of PAs have less than 0.01 species records per km2. Almost 55% of Brazilian species and about 40% of evolutionary lineages are not found in PAs, while most species have less than 30% of their geographic distribution within PAs. Moreover, the current PA network fails to protect the majority of endemic species. Most importantly, these results are similar for all taxonomic groups analysed here. The methods and results of our countrywide assessment are suggested to help design further inventories in order to map and secure the key biodiversity of the Brazilian PAs. In addition, our study illustrates the most common biodiversity knowledge shortfalls in the tropics.

Biogeography of Amazon birds: rivers limit species composition, but not areas of endemism

Amazonian rivers are usually suggested as dispersal barriers, limiting biogeographic units. This is evident in a widely accepted Areas of Endemism (AoEs) hypothesis proposed for Amazonian birds. We empirically test this hypothesis based on quantitative analyses of species distribution. We compiled a database of bird species and subspecies distribution records, and used this dataset to identify AoEs through three different methods. Our results show that the currently accepted Amazonian AoEs are not consistent with areas identified, which were generally congruent among datasets and methods. Some Amazonian rivers represent limits of AoEs, but these areas are not congruent with those previously proposed. However, spatial variation in species composition is correlated with largest Amazonian rivers. Overall, the previously proposed Amazonian AoEs are not consistent with the evidence from bird distribution. However, the fact that major rivers coincide with breaks in species composition suggest they can act as dispersal barriers, though not necessarily for all bird taxa. This scenario indicates a more complex picture of the Amazonian bird distribution than previously imagined.

Delimiting areas of endemism through kernel interpolation

We propose a new approach for identification of areas of endemism, the Geographical Interpolation of Endemism (GIE), based on kernel spatial interpolation. This method differs from others in being independent of grid cells. This new approach is based on estimating the overlap between the distribution of species through a kernel interpolation of centroids of species distribution and areas of influence defined from the distance between the centroid and the farthest point of occurrence of each species. We used this method to delimit areas of endemism of spiders from Brazil. To assess the effectiveness of GIE, we analyzed the same data using Parsimony Analysis of Endemism and NDM and compared the areas identified through each method. The analyses using GIE identified 101 areas of endemism of spiders in Brazil GIE demonstrated to be effective in identifying areas of endemism in multiple scales, with fuzzy edges and supported by more synendemic species than in the other methods. The areas of endemism identified with GIE were generally congruent with those identified for other taxonomic groups, suggesting that common processes can be responsible for the origin and maintenance of these biogeographic units.

Neuromuscular electrical stimulation improves GLUT-4 and morphological characteristics of skeletal muscle in rats with heart failure

AIM

Changes in skeletal muscle morphology and metabolism are associated with limited functional capacity in heart failure, which can be attenuated by neuromuscular electrical stimulation (ES). The purpose of the present study was to analyse the effects of ES upon GLUT-4 protein content, fibre structure and vessel density of the skeletal muscle in a rat model of HF subsequent to myocardial infarction.

METHODS

Forty-four male Wistar rats were assigned to one of four groups: sham (S), sham submitted to ES (S+ES), heart failure (HF) and heart failure submitted to ES (HF+ES). The rats in the ES groups were submitted to ES of the left leg during 20 days (2.5 kHz, once a day, 30 min, duty cycle 50%- 15 s contraction/15 s rest). After this period, the left tibialis anterior muscle was collected from all the rats for analysis.

RESULTS

HF+ES rats showed lower values of lung congestion when compared with HF rats (P = 0.0001). Although muscle weight was lower in HF rats than in the S group, thus indicating hypotrophy, 20 days of ES led to their recovery (P < 0.0001). In both groups submitted to ES, there was an increase in muscle vessel density (P < 0.04). Additionally, heart failure determined a 49% reduction in GLUT-4 protein content (P < 0.03), which was recovered by ES (P < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

In heart failure, ES improves morphological changes and raises GLUT-4 content in skeletal muscle.