Modelling the benefits of early diagnosis of pancreatic cancer using a biomarker signature.
Int J Cancer 2013;
133:2392-7. [PMID:
23649606 DOI:
10.1002/ijc.28256]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 38] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/10/2013] [Accepted: 04/04/2013] [Indexed: 12/16/2022]
Abstract
Pancreatic cancer (PC) has a poor prognosis, with a 5-year survival of 3-4%. This is mainly due to late diagnosis because of diffuse symptoms, where 80-85% of the patients are inoperable. Consequently, early diagnosis would be of significant benefit, resulting in a potential 5-year survival of 30-40%. However, new technologies must be carefully evaluated concerning effectiveness and healthcare costs. We have developed a framework for modelling cost and health effects from early detection of PC, which for the first time allowed us to analyse its cost-effectiveness. A probabilistic cohort model for estimating costs and quality adjusted life-years (QALY) arising from screening for PC, compared to a "wait-and-see"-approach, was designed. The test accuracy, Swedish survival and costs by tumour stage, expected life gain from early detection and pretest probabilities in risk groups, were retrieved from previous investigations. In a cohort of newly diagnosed diabetic patient (incidence 0.71%) the incremental cost per QALY gained (ICER) was €13,500, which is considered cost-effective in Europe. Results were mainly sensitive to the incidence with the ICER ranging from €315 to €204,000 (familial PC 35% and general population 0.046%, respectively). This is the first study focusing on clinical implementation of advanced testing and what is required for novel technologies in cancer care to be cost-effective. The model clearly demonstrated the potential of multiplexed proteomic-testing of PC and also identified the requirements for test accuracy. Consequently, it can serve as a model for assessing the possibilities to introduce advanced test platforms also for other cancer indications.
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