Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus-Infected Pneumonia

BACKGROUND

The initial cases of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)-infected pneumonia (NCIP) occurred in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, in December 2019 and January 2020. We analyzed data on the first 425 confirmed cases in Wuhan to determine the epidemiologic characteristics of NCIP.

METHODS

We collected information on demographic characteristics, exposure history, and illness timelines of laboratory-confirmed cases of NCIP that had been reported by January 22, 2020. We described characteristics of the cases and estimated the key epidemiologic time-delay distributions. In the early period of exponential growth, we estimated the epidemic doubling time and the basic reproductive number.

RESULTS

Among the first 425 patients with confirmed NCIP, the median age was 59 years and 56% were male. The majority of cases (55%) with onset before January 1, 2020, were linked to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, as compared with 8.6% of the subsequent cases. The mean incubation period was 5.2 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.1 to 7.0), with the 95th percentile of the distribution at 12.5 days. In its early stages, the epidemic doubled in size every 7.4 days. With a mean serial interval of 7.5 days (95% CI, 5.3 to 19), the basic reproductive number was estimated to be 2.2 (95% CI, 1.4 to 3.9).

CONCLUSIONS

On the basis of this information, there is evidence that human-to-human transmission has occurred among close contacts since the middle of December 2019. Considerable efforts to reduce transmission will be required to control outbreaks if similar dynamics apply elsewhere. Measures to prevent or reduce transmission should be implemented in populations at risk. (Funded by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China and others.).

Epidemiology of Imported Infectious Diseases, China, 2005-2016

Imported infectious diseases are becoming a serious public health threat in China. However, limited information concerning the epidemiologic characteristics of imported infectious diseases is available. In this study, we collected data related to imported infectious diseases in mainland China from the National Information Reporting System of Infectious Diseases and analyzed demographic, temporal, and spatial distributions. The number of types of imported infectious diseases reported increased from 2 in 2005 to 11 in 2016. A total of 31,740 cases of infectious disease were imported to mainland China during 2005–2016; most of them were found in Yunnan Province. The cases were imported mainly from Africa and Asia. As a key and effective measure, pretravel education should be strengthened for all migrant workers and tourists in China, and border screening, cross-border international cooperation, and early warning should be further improved.

Early Warning Practice Using Internet-Based Data

On the Internet, there is a lot of open access information related to infectious diseases, e.g., official announcement, media news, bulletin boards, blogs, and other social media. If proper data retrieval and screening methods were applied on these Internet-based data, it would be very useful to improve the timeliness of early detection for infectious diseases. In China, we practice early warning using Internet-based data with routine intelligence screening assessment every day, and respond to any unusual event in a timely manner. Through this mechanism, the surveillance and early warning of Internet-based data for infectious disease and public health emergency plays an important supplemental role to the traditional surveillance systems.

Comparison of the first three waves of avian influenza A(H7N9) virus circulation in the mainland of the People's Republic of China

BACKGROUND

H7N9 human cases were first detected in mainland China in March 2013. Circulation of this virus has continued each year shifting to typical winter months. We compared the clinical and epidemiologic characteristics for the first three waves of virus circulation.

METHODS

The first wave was defined as reported cases with onset dates between March 31-September 30, 2013, the second wave was defined as October 1, 2013-September 30, 2014 and the third wave was defined as October 1, 2014-September 30, 2015. We used simple descriptive statistics to compare characteristics of the three distinct waves of virus circulation.

RESULTS

In mainland China, 134 cases, 306 cases and 219 cases were detected and reported in first three waves, respectively. The median age of cases was statistically significantly older in the first wave (61 years vs. 56 years, 56 years, p < 0.001) compared to the following two waves. Most reported cases were among men in all three waves. There was no statistically significant difference between case fatality proportions (33, 42 and 45%, respectively, p = 0.08). There were no significant statistical differences for time from illness onset to first seeking healthcare, hospitalization, lab confirmation, initiation antiviral treatment and death between the three waves. A similar percentage of cases in all waves reported exposure to poultry or live poultry markets (87%, 88%, 90%, respectively). There was no statistically significant difference in the occurrence of severe disease between the each of the first three waves of virus circulation. Twenty-one clusters were reported during these three waves (4, 11 and 6 clusters, respectively), of which, 14 were considered to be possible human-to-human transmission.

CONCLUSION

Though our case investigation for the first three waves found few differences between the epidemiologic and clinical characteristics, there is continued international concern about the pandemic potential of this virus. Since the virus continues to circulate, causes more severe disease, has the ability to mutate and become transmissible from human-to-human, and there is limited natural protection from infection in communities, it is critical that surveillance systems in China and elsewhere are alert to the influenza H7N9 virus.

[Information obtained through Internet-based media surveillance regarding domestic public health emergencies in 2013]

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the information obtained through Internet-based media surveillance in 2013 on domestic public health emergencies and to compare with the related data reported through Chinese Public Health Emergency Management Information System (PHEMIS), and to study the role of Internet-based Media Surveillance Program (IBMSP) in the detection of public health emergencies.

METHODS

A descriptive analysis was conducted based on the database of the information on domestic public health emergencies. Information was obtained through the Internet-based media surveillance in 2013.

RESULTS

A total of 752 pieces of information regarding domestic public health emergencies in 31 provinces were obtained, through the IBMSP, run by the China CDC in 2013. 53.46% of all the information were categorized as initial ones on public health emergency while another 22.07% were considered as updated ones. 41.62% of the information were related to infectious diseases with another 24.73% to food poisoning. 27.53% of the information were from official websites of governments and professional organizations, with the rest 72.47% were from media. As for corresponding public health emergencies, 41.79% were food poisoning and 18.66% were infectious diseases. 22.39% of them occurred in schools, 18.16% in other organizations and 16.92% in households. 28.86% were reported through Chinese PHEMIS. For the 116 public health emergencies that both related to information obtained through Internet-based media surveillance in 2013 and reported through PHEMIS, the median days of interval between illness onset of the first case as well as reported by media, interval between onset of the first case as well as reported through PHEMIS, were 2.5 days and 2.0 days respectively. 19.83% of the emergencies were first reported by media than through PHEMIS.

CONCLUSION

Internet-based media surveillance programs had become an important way to detect public health emergencies and could serve as the supplement to the classic surveillance programs on public health emergencies.

[Development of an index system for the comprehensive evaluation on public health emergency events surveillance system in China]

OBJECTIVE

To establish a comprehensive evaluation index system for the China Public Health Emergency Events Surveillance System (CPHEESS).

METHODS

A draft index system was built through literature review and under the consideration of the characteristics on CPHEESS. Delphi method was adapted to determine the final index system.

RESULTS

The index system was divided into primary, secondary and tertiary levels. There were 4 primary indicators: System structure, Network platform, Surveillance implementation reports with Data analysis and utilization. There were 16 secondary and 70 tertiary indicators being set, with System structure including 14 tertiary indicators (accounted for 20.00%), 21 Network platforms (accounted for 30.00%). Twenty-four Surveillance implementation reports (accounted for 34.29%), 11 Data analysis and utilization (accounted for 15.71%). The average score of importance of each indicators was 4.29 (3.77-4.94), with an average coefficient variation as 0.14 (0.12-0.16). The mean Chronbach's α index was 0.84 (0.81-0.89). The adaptability of each related facilities indicator was specified.

CONCLUSION

The primary indicators were set in accordance with the characteristics and goals of the surveillance systems. Secondary indicators provided key elements in the management and control of the system while the tertiary indicators were available and operative. The agreement rate of experts was high with good validity and reliability. This index system could be used for CPHEESS in future.

[Epidemiological characteristics of human avian influenza A (H7N9) virus infection in China]

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the epidemiological characteristics of human infections with avian influenza A (H7N9) in China and to provide scientific evidence for the adjustment of preventive strategy and control measures.

METHODS

Demographic and epidemiologic information on human cases were collected from both reported data of field epidemiological investigation and the reporting system for infectious diseases.

RESULTS

A total of 433 cases including 163 deaths were reported in mainland China before June 4, 2014. Two obvious epidemic peaks were noticed, in March to April, 2013 and January to February, 2014. Confirmed cases emerged in 14 areas of China. Five provinces, including Zhejiang, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Hunan, reported about 85% of the total cases. Median age of the confirmed cases was 58 years (range, 1-91), with 70% as males. Of the 418 cases with available data, 87% had ever exposed to live poultry or contaminated environments. 14 clusters were identified but human to human transmission could not be ruled out in 9 clusters.

CONCLUSION

Human infections with avian influenza A (H7N9) virus showed the characteristics of obvious seasonal distribution, with certain regional clusters. The majority of confirmed cases were among the elderly, with more males seen than the females. Data showed that main source of infection was live poultry and the live poultry market had played a significant role in the transmission of the virus.

Use of national pneumonia surveillance to describe influenza A(H7N9) virus epidemiology, China, 2004-2013

In mainland China, most avian influenza A(H7N9) cases in the spring of 2013 were reported through the pneumonia of unknown etiology (PUE) surveillance system. To understand the role of possible underreporting and surveillance bias in assessing the epidemiology of subtype H7N9 cases and the effect of live-poultry market closures, we examined all PUE cases reported from 2004 through May 3, 2013. Historically, the PUE system was underused, reporting was inconsistent, and PUE reporting was biased toward A(H7N9)-affected provinces, with sparse data from unaffected provinces; however, we found no evidence that the older ages of persons with A(H7N9) resulted from surveillance bias. The absolute number and the proportion of PUE cases confirmed to be A(H7N9) declined after live-poultry market closures (p<0.001), indicating that market closures might have positively affected outbreak control. In China, PUE surveillance needs to be improved.

Epidemiology of human infections with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus in China

BACKGROUND

The first identified cases of avian influenza A(H7N9) virus infection in humans occurred in China during February and March 2013. We analyzed data obtained from field investigations to describe the epidemiologic characteristics of H7N9 cases in China identified as of December 1, 2013.

METHODS

Field investigations were conducted for each confirmed case of H7N9 virus infection. A patient was considered to have a confirmed case if the presence of the H7N9 virus was verified by means of real-time reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain-reaction assay (RT-PCR), viral isolation, or serologic testing. Information on demographic characteristics, exposure history, and illness timelines was obtained from patients with confirmed cases. Close contacts were monitored for 7 days for symptoms of illness. Throat swabs were obtained from contacts in whom symptoms developed and were tested for the presence of the H7N9 virus by means of real-time RT-PCR.

RESULTS

Among 139 persons with confirmed H7N9 virus infection, the median age was 61 years (range, 2 to 91), 71% were male, and 73% were urban residents. Confirmed cases occurred in 12 areas of China. Nine persons were poultry workers, and of 131 persons with available data, 82% had a history of exposure to live animals, including chickens (82%). A total of 137 persons (99%) were hospitalized, 125 (90%) had pneumonia or respiratory failure, and 65 of 103 with available data (63%) were admitted to an intensive care unit. A total of 47 persons (34%) died in the hospital after a median duration of illness of 21 days, 88 were discharged from the hospital, and 2 remain hospitalized in critical condition; 2 patients were not admitted to a hospital. In four family clusters, human-to-human transmission of H7N9 virus could not be ruled out. Excluding secondary cases in clusters, 2675 close contacts of case patients completed the monitoring period; respiratory symptoms developed in 28 of them (1%); all tested negative for H7N9 virus.

CONCLUSIONS

Most persons with confirmed H7N9 virus infection had severe lower respiratory tract illness, were epidemiologically unrelated, and had a history of recent exposure to poultry. However, limited, nonsustained human-to-human H7N9 virus transmission could not be ruled out in four families.

Comparative epidemiology of human infections with avian influenza A H7N9 and H5N1 viruses in China: a population-based study of laboratory-confirmed cases

BACKGROUND

The novel influenza A H7N9 virus emerged recently in mainland China, whereas the influenza A H5N1 virus has infected people in China since 2003. Both infections are thought to be mainly zoonotic. We aimed to compare the epidemiological characteristics of the complete series of laboratory-confirmed cases of both viruses in mainland China so far.

METHODS

An integrated database was constructed with information about demographic, epidemiological, and clinical variables of laboratory-confirmed cases of H7N9 (130 patients) and H5N1 (43 patients) that were reported to the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention until May 24, 2013. We described disease occurrence by age, sex, and geography, and estimated key epidemiological variables. We used survival analysis techniques to estimate the following distributions: infection to onset, onset to admission, onset to laboratory confirmation, admission to death, and admission to discharge.

FINDINGS

The median age of the 130 individuals with confirmed infection with H7N9 was 62 years and of the 43 with H5N1 was 26 years. In urban areas, 74% of cases of both viruses were in men, whereas in rural areas the proportions of the viruses in men were 62% for H7N9 and 33% for H5N1. 75% of patients infected with H7N9 and 71% of those with H5N1 reported recent exposure to poultry. The mean incubation period of H7N9 was 3·1 days and of H5N1 was 3·3 days. On average, 21 contacts were traced for each case of H7N9 in urban areas and 18 in rural areas, compared with 90 and 63 for H5N1. The fatality risk on admission to hospital was 36% (95% CI 26-45) for H7N9 and 70% (56-83%) for H5N1.

INTERPRETATION

The sex ratios in urban compared with rural cases are consistent with exposure to poultry driving the risk of infection--a higher risk in men was only recorded in urban areas but not in rural areas, and the increased risk for men was of a similar magnitude for H7N9 and H5N1. However, the difference in susceptibility to serious illness with the two different viruses remains unexplained, since most cases of H7N9 were in older adults whereas most cases of H5N1 were in younger people. A limitation of our study is that we compared laboratory-confirmed cases of H7N9 and H5N1 infection, and some infections might not have been ascertained.

FUNDING

Ministry of Science and Technology, China; Research Fund for the Control of Infectious Disease and University Grants Committee, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China; and the US National Institutes of Health.

[Estimation of sampling error on data from cluster sample survey]

To clarify the necessity of applying appropriate statistical methods to calculate sampling error from data of cluster sample survey, we take a two-stage cluster sample survey developed from a population aged 15 and over as example. We use statistical methods based on the assumption of simple random samples and methods considering complex sample design to analyze our data, respectively. Through comparison, we hope to show the potential effects of using improper statistical methods to estimate sampling error on parameter estimation and hypothesis testing. Using standard error algorithms based on the assumption of simple random samples,the standard errors calculated often underestimate sampling error and the hypothesis testing even gets wrong conclusion. When the statistical methods and statistics package for complex survey data are already available, it is necessary for us to use appropriate methods to analyze and report the sampling errors of data from cluster sample survey.