Assessing the impact of COVID-19 passes and mandates on disease transmission, vaccination intention, and uptake: a scoping review

PURPOSE

Policymakers have struggled to maintain SARS-CoV-2 transmission at levels that are manageable to contain the COVID-19 disease burden while enabling a maximum of societal and economic activities. One of the tools that have been used to facilitate this is the so-called "COVID-19 pass". We aimed to document current evidence on the effectiveness of COVID-19 passes, distinguishing their indirect effects by improving vaccination intention and uptake from their direct effects on COVID-19 transmission measured by the incidence of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.

METHODS

We performed a scoping review on the scientific literature of the proposed topic covering the period January 2021 to September 2022, in accordance with the PRISMA-ScR guidelines for scoping reviews.

RESULTS

Out of a yield of 4,693 publications, 45 studies from multiple countries were retained for full-text review. The results suggest that implementing COVID-19 passes tends to reduce the incidence of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths due to COVID-19. The use of COVID-19 passes was also shown to improve overall vaccination uptake and intention, but not in people who hold strong anti-COVID-19 vaccine beliefs.

CONCLUSION

The evidence from the literature we reviewed tends to indicate positive direct and indirect effects from the use of COVID-19 passes. A major limitation to establishing this firmly is the entanglement of individual effects of multiple measures being implemented simultaneously.

Key risk factors associated with fractal dimension based geographical clustering of COVID-19 data in the Flemish and Brussels region, Belgium

Introduction

COVID-19 remains a major concern globally. Therefore, it is important to evaluate COVID-19's rapidly changing trends. The fractal dimension has been proposed as a viable method to characterize COVID-19 curves since epidemic data is often subject to considerable heterogeneity. In this study, we aim to investigate the association between various socio-demographic factors and the complexity of the COVID-19 curve as quantified through its fractal dimension.

Methods

We collected population indicators data (ethnic composition, socioeconomic status, number of inhabitants, population density, the older adult population proportion, vaccination rate, satisfaction, and trust in the government) at the level of the statistical sector in Belgium. We compared these data with fractal dimension indicators of COVID-19 incidence between 1 January - 31 December 2021 using canonical correlation analysis.

Results

Our results showed that these population indicators have a significant association with COVID-19 incidences, with the highest explanatory and predictive power coming from the number of inhabitants, population density, and ethnic composition.

Conclusion

It is important to monitor these population indicators during a pandemic, especially when dealing with targeted interventions for a specific population.

The Effect of Transborder Mobility on COVID-19 Incidences in Belgium

Belgium is a geographically small country bordered by The Netherlands, France, Germany, and Luxembourg, with intense transborder mobility, defined as mobility in the border regions with neighboring countries. It is therefore of interest to examine how the 14-day COVID-19 confirmed case incidence in the border regions is influenced by that of the adjacent regions in the neighboring countries and thus, whether and how it differs from that in the adjacent non-border regions within Belgium. To this end, the 14-day COVID-19 confirmed case incidence is studied at the level of Belgian provinces, well-defined border areas within Belgium, and adjacent regions in the neighboring countries. Auxiliary information encompasses work-related border traffic, travel rates, the proportion of people with a different nationality, the stringency index of the non-pharmaceutical interventions, and the degree of urbanization at the level of the municipality. Especially in transnational urbanized areas such as between the Belgian and Dutch provinces of Limburg and between the Belgian province of Antwerp and the Dutch province of North Brabant, the impact on incidence is visible, at least at some points in time, especially when the national incidences differ between neighboring countries. In contrast, the intra-Belgian language border regions show very little transborder impact on the incidence curves, except around the Brussels capital region, leading to various periods where the incidences are very different in the Dutch-speaking north and the French-speaking south of Belgium. Our findings suggest that while travel restrictions may be needed at some points during a pandemic, a more fine-grained approach than merely closing national borders may be considered. At the same time, in border regions with considerable transborder mobility, it is recommended to coordinate the non-pharmaceutical interventions between the authorities of the various countries overlapping with the border region. While this seems logical, there are clear counterexamples, e.g., where non-essential shops, restaurants, and bars are closed in one country but not in the neighboring country.

The COVID-19 wave in Belgium during the Fall of 2020 and its association with higher education

Soon after SARS-CoV-2 emerged in late 2019, Belgium was confronted with a first COVID-19 wave in March-April 2020. SARS-CoV-2 circulation declined in the summer months (late May to early July 2020). Following a successfully trumped late July-August peak, COVID-19 incidence fell slightly, to then enter two successive phases of rapid incline: in the first half of September, and then again in October 2020. The first of these coincided with the peak period of returning summer travelers; the second one coincided with the start of higher education’s academic year. The largest observed COVID-19 incidence occurred in the period 16–31 October, particularly in the Walloon Region, the southern, French-speaking part of Belgium. We examine the potential association of the higher education population with spatio-temporal spread of COVID-19, using Bayesian spatial Poisson models for confirmed test cases, accounting for socio-demographic heterogeneity in the population. We find a significant association between the number of COVID-19 cases in the age groups 18–29 years and 30–39 years and the size of the higher education student population at the municipality level. These results can be useful towards COVID-19 mitigation strategies, particularly in areas where virus transmission from higher education students into the broader community could exacerbate morbidity and mortality of COVID-19 among populations with prevalent underlying conditions associated with more severe outcomes following infection.

Spatial and temporal analysis of hospitalized dengue patients in Bandung: demographics and risk

Background

Bandung, the fourth largest city in Indonesia and capital of West Java province, has been considered a major endemic area of dengue, and studies show that the incidence in this city could increase and spread rapidly. At the same time, estimation of incidence could be inaccurate due to a lack of reliable surveillance systems. To provide strategic information for the dengue control program in the face of limited capacity, this study used spatial pattern analysis of a possible outbreak of dengue cases, through the Geographic Information System (GIS). To further enhance the information needed for effective policymaking, we also analyzed the demographic pattern of dengue cases.

Methods

Monthly reports of dengue cases from January 2014 to December 2016 from 16 hospitals in Bandung were collected as the database, which consisted of address, sex, age, and code to anonymize the patients. The address was then transformed into geocoding and used to estimate the relative risk of a particular area’s developing a cluster of dengue cases. We used the kernel density estimation method to analyze the dynamics of change of dengue cases.

Results

The model showed that the spatial cluster of the relative risk of dengue incidence was relatively unchanged for 3 years. Dengue high-risk areas predominated in the southern and southeastern parts of Bandung, while low-risk areas were found mostly in its western and northeastern regions. The kernel density estimation showed strong cluster groups of dengue cases in the city.

Conclusions

This study demonstrated a strong pattern of reported cases related to specific demographic groups (males and children). Furthermore, spatial analysis using GIS also visualized the dynamic development of the aggregation of disease incidence (hotspots) for dengue cases in Bandung. These data may provide strategic information for the planning and design of dengue control programs.

Optimizing ultraviolet B radiation exposure to prevent vitamin D deficiency among pregnant women in the tropical zone: report from cohort study on vitamin D status and its impact during pregnancy in Indonesia

Background

Vitamin D deficiency during pregnancy carries potential threat to fetal well being. Natural conversion of vitamin D in the skin can be facilitated by direct ultra violet B (UVB) radiation, but the effect is reduced by wearing umbrellas, clothes, or sunblock cream. Muslim women wear hijab that allows only face and hands to be seen. With increasing proportion of muslim women wearing hijab and the lack of vitamin D fortification and fish consumption in Indonesia, it poses a problem for vitamin D deficiency among pregnant women. This study aimed at finding the best timing of UVB exposure and the duration of exposure which can be suggested to prevent vitamin D deficiency among pregnant women, for those wearing hijab or not.

Methods

This study recruited 304 pregnant women in the first trimester, 75–76 women from 4 cities of the most populated province, West Java, Indonesia which represented 70–80% percent of pregnancy per year. A 3-day notes on duration, time and type of outdoor activity and the clothing wore by the women were collected. UVB intensity radiation were obtained. Calculation on body surface area exposed to direct UVB radiation and UVB radiation intensity were done. Measurement of vitamin D level in sera were done on the same week.

Results

The median of maternal sera vitamin D level was 13.6 ng/mL and the mean exposed area was around 0.48 m2 or 18.59% of total body surface area. Radiation intensity reached its peak around 10.00 and 13.00, but the mean duration of exposure to UVB during this window was lower than expected. Significant correlation was found between maternal sera vitamin D level and exposed body surface area (r = 0.36, p < 0.002) or percentage of exposed body surface (r = 0.39, p < 0.001) and radiation intensity (r = 0.15, p = 0.029). Further analysis showed that duration of exposure to UVB should be longer for pregnant women wearing hijab as compared to women without hijab.

Conclusion

This study suggested that the best timing to get UVB exposure was between 10.00–13.00, with longer duration for women wearing hijab (64.5 vs 37.5 min) of continuous exposure per day.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12884-019-2306-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Association of first trimester maternal vitamin D, ferritin and hemoglobin level with third trimester fetal biometry: result from cohort study on vitamin D status and its impact during pregnancy and childhood in Indonesia

Introduction

The role of vitamin D in placental functions and fetal growth had been addressed in many reports with conflicting results. However, such report is limited for Indonesian population. The aim of this study was to explore the association between maternal vitamin D level in the first trimester and fetal biometry in the later stage of pregnancy with adjusted OR for other determinants like hemoglobin and ferritin level.

Methods

From July 2016 a prospective cohort study of pregnant women had begun in four cities in West Java, Indonesia. Data on maternal vitamin D, ferritin, hemoglobin level, maternal demography and fetal biometry were analyzed with linear regression.

Results

Among 203 recruited women, 195 (96.06%) had hypovitaminosis D. One hundred fifty two (75%) were in deficient state and 43 women (21%) were in insufficient state. Women with insufficient vitamin D had the highest proportion of anemia, while women with normal vitamin D level had the highest proportion of low ferritin level. Maternal serum vitamin D showed significant associations with biparietal diameter (β = 0.141, p = 0.042) and abdominal circumference (β = 0.819, p = 0.001) after adjustment with maternal age, pre-pregnancy body mass index, parity, serum ferritin level, and hemoglobin level.

Conclusion

Our study suggested that sufficient maternal vitamin D level was an important factor to improve fetal growth and development.