Decreasing body size is associated with reduced calving probability in critically endangered North Atlantic right whales

Body size is key to many life-history processes, including reproduction. Across species, climate change and other stressors have caused reductions in the body size to which animals can grow, called asymptotic size, with consequences for demography. A reduction in mean asymptotic length was documented for critically endangered North Atlantic right whales, in parallel with declines in health and vital rates resulting from human activities and environmental changes. Here, we tested whether smaller body size was associated with lower reproductive output, using a state-space model for individual health, survival and reproduction that quantifies the mechanistic links between these processes. Body size (as represented by the cube of length) was strongly associated with a female's calving probability at each reproductive opportunity. This relationship explained 62% of the variation in calving among reproductive females, along with their decreasing health (20%). The effects of decreasing mean body size on reproductive performance are another concerning indication of the worsening prospects for this species and many others affected by environmental change, requiring a focus of conservation and management interventions on improving conditions that affect reproduction as well as reducing mortality.

Home range, site fidelity and synchronous migrations of three co-occurring, morphologically distinct estuarine fish species

Determining the movement behaviours of animals is essential for understanding population dynamics. This is fundamental for developing effective spatial management strategies and in assessing the response of species to anthropogenic disturbance. This study uses a Bayesian state-space model applied to acoustic transmitter data to describe the temporal and spatial movement patterns of three estuarine fish species commonly targeted by recreational anglers in southeast Australia: Black Bream (Acanthopagrus butcheri), Sand Flathead (Platycephalus bassensis), and Brown Trout (Salmo trutta). Despite morphological differences between the three species, several common traits were observed in their movement and behaviour. Of the 50 individuals across all three species that were tracked, the vast majority remained within the estuary where they were tagged for the duration of the study. While the home ranges of the three species differed in size, all individuals remained resident around the mid-estuary where the majority of fish were tagged were released. Each of the species also displayed seasonal migrations, presumably linked to spawning. The timing of the beginning of these migrations was well synchronised both within and among species, starting in late spring/early summer. This suggests that environmental factors such as water temperature and day length may play an important role in cueing spawning behaviour for each of the species. These migratory behaviours suggest adverse changes to estuarine conditions such as reduced river flows may have potential consequences for spawning success for some species and hence implications for fisheries management.

Harvest models of small populations of a large carnivore using Bayesian forecasting

Harvesting large carnivores can be a management tool for meeting politically set goals for their desired abundance. However, harvesting carnivores creates its own set of conflicts in both society and among conservation professionals, where one consequence is a need to demonstrate that management is sustainable, evidence-based, and guided by science. Furthermore, because large carnivores often also have high degrees of legal protection, harvest quotas have to be carefully justified and constantly adjusted to avoid damaging their conservation status. We developed a Bayesian state-space model to support adaptive management of Eurasian lynx harvesting in Scandinavia. The model uses data from the annual monitoring of lynx abundance and results from long-term field research on lynx biology, which has provided detailed estimates of key demographic parameters. We used the model to predict the probability that the forecasted population size will be below or above the management objectives when subjected to different harvest quotas. The model presented here informs decision makers about the policy risks of alternative harvest levels. Earlier versions of the model have been available for wildlife managers in both Sweden and Norway to guide lynx harvest quotas and the model predictions showed good agreement with observations. We combined monitoring data with data on vital rates and were able to estimate unobserved additional mortality rates, which are most probably due to poaching. In both countries, the past quota setting strategy suggests that there has been a de facto threshold strategy with increasing proportion, which means that there is no harvest below a certain population size, but above this threshold there is an increasing proportion of the population harvested as the population size increases. The annual assessment of the monitoring results, the use of forecasting models, and a threshold harvest approach to quota setting will all reduce the risk of lynx population sizes moving outside the desired goals. The approach we illustrate could be adapted to other populations of mammals worldwide.

Drought-mediated extinction of an arid-land amphibian: insights from a spatially explicit dynamic occupancy model

Understanding how natural and anthropogenic processes affect population dynamics of species with patchy distributions is critical to predicting their responses to environmental changes. Despite considerable evidence that demographic rates and dispersal patterns vary temporally in response to an array of biotic and abiotic processes, few applications of metapopulation theory have sought to explore factors that explain spatiotemporal variation in extinction or colonization rates. To facilitate exploring these factors, we extended a spatially explicit model of metapopulation dynamics to create a framework that requires only binary presence-absence data, makes few assumptions about the dispersal process, and accounts for imperfect detection. We apply this framework to 22 yr of biannual survey data for lowland leopard frogs, Lithobates yavapaiensis, an amphibian that inhabits arid stream systems in the southwestern United States and northern Mexico. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for factors that govern temporal variation in transition probabilities, as both extinction and colonization rates varied with hydrologic conditions. Specifically, local extinctions were more frequent during drought periods, particularly at sites without reliable surface water. Colonization rates increased when larval and dispersal periods were wetter than normal, which increased the probability that potential emigrants metamorphosed and reached neighboring sites. Extirpation of frogs from all sites in one watershed during a period of severe drought demonstrated the influence of site-level features, as frogs persisted only in areas where most sites held water consistently and where the amount of sediment deposited from high-elevation wildfires was low. Application of our model provided novel insights into how climate-related processes affected the distribution and population dynamics of an arid-land amphibian. The approach we describe has application to a wide array of species that inhabit patchy environments, can improve our understanding of factors that govern metapopulation dynamics, and can inform strategies for conservation of imperiled species.

Spatial heterogeneity in the carrying capacity of sika deer in Japan

Carrying capacity is 1 driver of wildlife population dynamics. Although in previous studies carrying capacity was considered to be a fixed entity, it may differ among locations due to environmental variation. The factors underlying variability in carrying capacity, however, have rarely been examined. Here, we investigated spatial heterogeneity in the carrying capacity of Japanese sika deer ( Cervus nippon ) from 2005 to 2014 in Yamanashi Prefecture, central Japan (mesh with grid cells of 5.5×4.6 km) by state-space modeling. Both carrying capacity and density dependence differed greatly among cells. Estimated carrying capacities ranged from 1.34 to 98.4 deer/km ² . According to estimated population dynamics, grid cells with larger proportions of artificial grassland and deciduous forest were subject to lower density dependence and higher carrying capacity. We conclude that population dynamics of ungulates may vary spatially through spatial variation in carrying capacity and that the density level for controlling ungulate abundance should be based on the current density level relative to the carrying capacity for each area.

Differential population responses of native and alien rodents to an invasive predator, habitat alteration and plant masting

Invasive species and anthropogenic habitat alteration are major drivers of biodiversity loss. When multiple invasive species occupy different trophic levels, removing an invasive predator might cause unexpected outcomes owing to complex interactions among native and non-native prey. Moreover, external factors such as habitat alteration and resource availability can affect such dynamics. We hypothesized that native and non-native prey respond differently to an invasive predator, habitat alteration and bottom-up effects. To test the hypothesis, we used Bayesian state-space modelling to analyse 8-year data on the spatio-temporal patterns of two endemic rat species and the non-native black rat in response to the continual removal of the invasive small Indian mongoose on Amami Island, Japan. Despite low reproductive potentials, the endemic rats recovered better after mongoose removal than did the black rat. The endemic species appeared to be vulnerable to predation by mongooses, whose eradication increased the abundances of the endemic rats, but not of the black rat. Habitat alteration increased the black rat's carrying capacity, but decreased those of the endemic species. We propose that spatio-temporal monitoring data from eradication programmes will clarify the underlying ecological impacts of land-use change and invasive species, and will be useful for future habitat management.