Practices of falls risk assessment and prevention in acute hospital settings: a realist investigation

Background

Falls are the most common safety incident reported by acute hospitals. The National Institute of Health and Care Excellence recommends multifactorial falls risk assessment and tailored interventions, but implementation is variable.

Aim

To determine how and in what contexts multifactorial falls risk assessment and tailored interventions are used in acute National Health Service hospitals in England.

Design

Realist review and multisite case study. (1) Systematic searches to identify stakeholders' theories, tested using empirical data from primary studies. Review of falls prevention policies of acute Trusts. (2) Theory testing and refinement through observation, staff interviews (n = 50), patient and carer interviews (n = 31) and record review (n = 60).

Setting

Three Trusts, one orthopaedic and one older person ward in each.

Results

Seventy-eight studies were used for theory construction and 50 for theory testing. Four theories were explored. (1) Leadership: wards had falls link practitioners but authority to allocate resources for falls prevention resided with senior nurses. (2) Shared responsibility: a key falls prevention strategy was patient supervision. This fell to nursing staff, constraining the extent to which responsibility for falls prevention could be shared. (3) Facilitation: assessments were consistently documented but workload pressures could reduce this to a tick-box exercise. Assessment items varied. While individual patient risk factors were identified, patients were categorised as high or low risk to determine who should receive supervision. (4) Patient participation: nursing staff lacked time to explain to patients their falls risks or how to prevent themselves from falling, although other staff could do so. Sensitive communication could prevent patients taking actions that increase their risk of falling.

Limitations

Within the realist review, we completed synthesis for only two theories. We could not access patient records before observations, preventing assessment of whether care plans were enacted.

Conclusions

(1) Leadership: There should be a clear distinction between senior nurses' roles and falls link practitioners in relation to falls prevention; (2) shared responsibility: Trusts should consider how processes and systems, including the electronic health record, can be revised to better support a multidisciplinary approach, and alternatives to patient supervision should be considered; (3) facilitation: Trusts should consider how to reduce documentation burden and avoid tick-box responses, and ensure items included in the falls risk assessment tools align with guidance. Falls risk assessment tools and falls care plans should be presented as tools to support practice, rather than something to be audited; (4) patient participation: Trusts should consider how they can ensure patients receive individualised information about risks and preventing falls and provide staff with guidance on brief but sensitive ways to talk with patients to reduce the likelihood of actions that increase their risk of falling.

Future work

(1) Development and evaluation of interventions to support multidisciplinary teams to undertake, and involve patients in, multifactorial falls risk assessment and selection and delivery of tailored interventions; (2) mixed method and economic evaluations of patient supervision; (3) evaluation of engagement support workers, volunteers and/or carers to support falls prevention. Research should include those with cognitive impairment and patients who do not speak English.

Study registration

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42020184458.

Funding

This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health and Social Care Delivery Research programme (NIHR award ref: NIHR129488) and is published in full in Health and Social Care Delivery Research; Vol. 12, No. 5. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Breaking Up Sedentary Time Reduces Recurrent Fall Risk, but Not Incident Fracture Risk in Older Men

Apart from physical activity volume, frequent breaks from sedentary bouts and active bouts may differentially reduce fall and fracture risk. We assessed the longitudinal relationship between frequency of breaks from time spent sedentary and frequency of active bouts with recurrent falls and fractures. The sample included 2918 men aged 79.0 ± 5.1 years with free-living activity (SenseWear Armband) at the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study (MrOS) year 7 (2007-2009) visit. Men were divided into quartiles by the number of breaks from sedentary bouts (sedentary bout: 5+ minutes sedentary; <1.5 metabolic equivalents of task [METS]) and separately by active bout frequency (active bout: 5+ minutes of activity; ≥1.5 METS). Recurrent falls (2+ falls/year) and fractures were ascertained by self-report; fractures were radiographically confirmed. Generalized estimating equations estimated the recurrent fall odds, with restricted cubic splines applied to assess nonlinear relationships. Cox proportional hazards models estimated fracture risk. Over 4 years of follow-up after year 7, 1025 (35.1%) men were fallers. Over 8.40 ± 4.10 years of follow-up, 640 (21.9%) men experienced a fracture. There was a significant nonlinear U-shaped relationship between number of breaks from sedentary bouts and recurrent falls (p < 0.001); compared with men with few breaks from sedentary bouts (1.4-<13.6), the odds of recurrent falls were lower with a moderate number (13.6-<17.0, odds ratio [OR] = 0.82, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.66, 1.01; 17.0-<20.4, OR = 0.79, 95% CI 0.64, 0.99), but not with the highest number of breaks from sedentary bouts (20.4-34.6, OR = 1.01, 95% CI 0.81, 1.27). Results remained borderline significant after adjusting for total sedentary time. Men with the highest compared with the lowest number of breaks from sedentary bouts had a lower fracture risk, but the association was attenuated after adjustment for total sedentary time. No associations were observed for active bout frequency. In conclusion, breaking up extended periods of sedentary time reduces fall risk regardless of total sedentary time. © 2023 The Authors. JBMR Plus published by Wiley Periodicals LLC. on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Sarcopenia Definitions as Predictors of Fracture Risk Independent of FRAX® , Falls, and BMD in the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Study: A Meta-Analysis

Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA)-derived appendicular lean mass/height2 (ALM/ht2 ) is the most commonly used estimate of muscle mass in the assessment of sarcopenia, but its predictive value for fracture is substantially attenuated by femoral neck (fn) bone mineral density (BMD). We investigated predictive value of 11 sarcopenia definitions for incident fracture, independent of fnBMD, fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX® ) probability, and prior falls, using an extension of Poisson regression in US, Sweden, and Hong Kong Osteoporois Fractures in Men Study (MrOS) cohorts. Definitions tested were those of Baumgartner and Delmonico (ALM/ht2 only), Morley, the International Working Group on Sarcopenia, European Working Group on Sarcopenia in Older People (EWGSOP1 and 2), Asian Working Group on Sarcopenia, Foundation for the National Institutes of Health (FNIH) 1 and 2 (using ALM/body mass index [BMI], incorporating muscle strength and/or physical performance measures plus ALM/ht2 ), and Sarcopenia Definitions and Outcomes Consortium (gait speed and grip strength). Associations were adjusted for age and time since baseline and reported as hazard ratio (HR) for first incident fracture, here major osteoporotic fracture (MOF; clinical vertebral, hip, distal forearm, proximal humerus). Further analyses adjusted additionally for FRAX-MOF probability (n = 7531; calculated ± fnBMD), prior falls (y/n), or fnBMD T-score. Results were synthesized by meta-analysis. In 5660 men in USA, 2764 Sweden and 1987 Hong Kong (mean ages 73.5, 75.4, and 72.4 years, respectively), sarcopenia prevalence ranged from 0.5% to 35%. Sarcopenia status, by all definitions except those of FNIH, was associated with incident MOF (HR = 1.39 to 2.07). Associations were robust to adjustment for prior falls or FRAX probability (without fnBMD); adjustment for fnBMD T-score attenuated associations. EWGSOP2 severe sarcopenia (incorporating chair stand time, gait speed, and grip strength plus ALM) was most predictive, albeit at low prevalence, and appeared only modestly influenced by inclusion of fnBMD. In conclusion, the predictive value for fracture of sarcopenia definitions based on ALM is reduced by adjustment for fnBMD but strengthened by additional inclusion of physical performance measures. © 2021 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Fall prevention interventions in primary care to reduce fractures and falls in people aged 70 years and over: the PreFIT three-arm cluster RCT

BACKGROUND

Falls and fractures are a major problem.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of alternative falls prevention interventions.

DESIGN

Three-arm, pragmatic, cluster randomised controlled trial with parallel economic analysis. The unit of randomisation was the general practice.

SETTING

Primary care.

PARTICIPANTS

People aged ≥ 70 years.

INTERVENTIONS

All practices posted an advice leaflet to each participant. Practices randomised to active intervention arms (exercise and multifactorial falls prevention) screened participants for falls risk using a postal questionnaire. Active treatments were delivered to participants at higher risk of falling.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was fracture rate over 18 months, captured from Hospital Episode Statistics, general practice records and self-report. Secondary outcomes were falls rate, health-related quality of life, mortality, frailty and health service resource use. Economic evaluation was expressed in terms of incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year and incremental net monetary benefit.

RESULTS

Between 2011 and 2014, we randomised 63 general practices (9803 participants): 21 practices (3223 participants) to advice only, 21 practices (3279 participants) to exercise and 21 practices (3301 participants) to multifactorial falls prevention. In the active intervention arms, 5779 out of 6580 (87.8%) participants responded to the postal fall risk screener, of whom 2153 (37.3%) were classed as being at higher risk of falling and invited for treatment. The rate of intervention uptake was 65% (697 out of 1079) in the exercise arm and 71% (762 out of 1074) in the multifactorial falls prevention arm. Overall, 379 out of 9803 (3.9%) participants sustained a fracture. There was no difference in the fracture rate between the advice and exercise arms (rate ratio 1.20, 95% confidence interval 0.91 to 1.59) or between the advice and multifactorial falls prevention arms (rate ratio 1.30, 95% confidence interval 0.99 to 1.71). There was no difference in falls rate over 18 months (exercise arm: rate ratio 0.99, 95% confidence interval 0.86 to 1.14; multifactorial falls prevention arm: rate ratio 1.13, 95% confidence interval 0.98 to 1.30). A lower rate of falls was observed in the exercise arm at 8 months (rate ratio 0.78, 95% confidence interval 0.64 to 0.96), but not at other time points. There were 289 (2.9%) deaths, with no differences by treatment arm. There was no evidence of effects in prespecified subgroup comparisons, nor in nested intention-to-treat analyses that considered only those at higher risk of falling. Exercise provided the highest expected quality-adjusted life-years (1.120), followed by advice and multifactorial falls prevention, with 1.106 and 1.114 quality-adjusted life-years, respectively. NHS costs associated with exercise (£3720) were lower than the costs of advice (£3737) or of multifactorial falls prevention (£3941). Although incremental differences between treatment arms were small, exercise dominated advice, which in turn dominated multifactorial falls prevention. The incremental net monetary benefit of exercise relative to treatment valued at £30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year is modest, at £191, and for multifactorial falls prevention is £613. Exercise is the most cost-effective treatment. No serious adverse events were reported.

LIMITATIONS

The rate of fractures was lower than anticipated.

CONCLUSIONS

Screen-and-treat falls prevention strategies in primary care did not reduce fractures. Exercise resulted in a short-term reduction in falls and was cost-effective.

FUTURE WORK

Exercise is the most promising intervention for primary care. Work is needed to ensure adequate uptake and sustained effects.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN71002650.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 34. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

The Effect of Fall Biomechanics on Risk for Hip Fracture in Older Adults: A Cohort Study of Video-Captured Falls in Long-Term Care

Over 95% of hip fractures in older adults are caused by falls, yet only 1% to 2% of falls result in hip fracture. Our current understanding of the types of falls that lead to hip fracture is based on reports by the faller or witness. We analyzed videos of real-life falls in long-term care to provide objective evidence on the factors that separate falls that result in hip fracture from falls that do not. Between 2007 and 2018, we video-captured 2377 falls by 646 residents in two long-term care facilities. Hip fracture was documented in 30 falls. We analyzed each video with a structured questionnaire, and used generalized estimating equations (GEEs) to determine relative risk ratios (RRs) for hip fracture associated with various fall characteristics. All hip fractures involved falls from standing height, and pelvis impact with the ground. After excluding falls from lower than standing height, risk for hip fracture was higher for sideways landing configurations (RR = 5.50; 95% CI, 2.36-12.78) than forward or backward, and for falls causing hip impact (3.38; 95% CI, 1.49-7.67). However, hip fracture risk was just as high in falls initially directed sideways as forward (1.14; 95% CI, 0.49-2.67), due to the tendency for rotation during descent. Falling while using a mobility aid was associated with lower fracture risk (0.30; 95% CI, 0.09-1.00). Seventy percent of hip fractures involved impact to the posterolateral aspect of the pelvis. Hip protectors were worn in 73% of falls, and hip fracture risk was lower in falls where hip protectors were worn (0.45; 95% CI, 0.21-0.99). Age and sex were not associated with fracture risk. There was no evidence of spontaneous fractures. In this first study of video-captured falls causing hip fracture, we show that the biomechanics of falls involving hip fracture were different than nonfracture falls for fall height, fall direction, impact locations, and use of hip protectors. © 2020 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Heterogeneous Spatial and Strength Adaptation of the Proximal Femur to Physical Activity: A Within-Subject Controlled Cross-Sectional Study

Physical activity (PA) enhances proximal femur bone mass, as assessed using projectional imaging techniques. However, these techniques average data over large volumes, obscuring spatially heterogeneous adaptations. The current study used quantitative computed tomography, statistical parameter mapping, and subject-specific finite element (FE) modeling to explore spatial adaptation of the proximal femur to PA. In particular, we were interested in adaptation occurring at the superior femoral neck and improving strength under loading from a fall onto the greater trochanter. High/long jump athletes (n = 16) and baseball pitchers (n = 16) were utilized as within-subject controlled models as they preferentially load their take-off leg and leg contralateral to their throwing arm, respectively. Controls (n = 15) were included but did not show any dominant-to-nondominant (D-to-ND) leg differences. Jumping athletes showed some D-to-ND leg differences but less than pitchers. Pitchers had 5.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.9%-7.6%) D-to-ND leg differences in total hip volumetric bone mineral density (vBMD), with increased vBMD in the cortical compartment of the femoral neck and trochanteric cortical and trabecular compartments. Voxel-based morphometry analyses and cortical bone mapping showed pitchers had D-to-ND leg differences within the regions of the primary compressive trabeculae, inferior femoral neck, and greater trochanter but not the superior femoral neck. FE modeling revealed pitchers had 4.1% (95% CI 1.4%-6.7%) D-to-ND leg differences in ultimate strength under single-leg stance loading but no differences in ultimate strength to a fall onto the greater trochanter. These data indicate the asymmetrical loading associated with baseball pitching induces proximal femur adaptation in regions associated with weight bearing and muscle contractile forces and increases strength under single-leg stance loading. However, there were no benefits evident at the superior femoral neck and no measurable improvement in ultimate strength to common injurious loading during aging (ie, fall onto the greater trochanter), raising questions as to how to better target these variables with PA. © 2019 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Effects of a 12-Month Supervised, Community-Based, Multimodal Exercise Program Followed by a 6-Month Research-to-Practice Transition on Bone Mineral Density, Trabecular Microarchitecture, and Physical Function in Older Adults: A Randomized Controlled Trial

Multicomponent exercise programs are recommended to reduce fracture risk; however, their effectiveness in real-world community settings remain uncertain. This 18-month randomized controlled trial investigated the effects of a 12-month, community-based, supervised multicomponent exercise program followed by a 6-month "research-to-practice" transition on areal bone mineral density (BMD), trabecular bone microarchitecture, functional performance, and falls in older adults at increased fracture risk. One-hundred and sixty-two adults aged ≥60 years with osteopenia or at increased falls risk were randomized to the Osteo-cise: Strong Bones for Life multicomponent exercise program (n = 81) or a control group (n = 81). Exercise consisted of progressive resistance, weight-bearing impact, and balance training (3-days/week) performed at community leisure centers. Overall 148 (91%) participants completed the trial, and mean exercise adherence was 59% after 12 months and 45% during the final 6 months. After 12 months, there were significant net beneficial effects of exercise on lumbar spine and femoral neck BMD (1.0% to 1.1%, p < 0.05), muscle strength (10% to 13%, p < 0.05), and physical function (timed stair climb 5%; four-square step test 6%; sit-to-stand 16%, p ranging <0.05 to <0.001), which persisted after the 6-month transition. There were no significant effects of the 18-month intervention on distal femur or proximal tibia trabecular bone microarchitecture or falls incidence, but per protocol analysis (≥66% exercise adherence) revealed there was a significant net benefit of exercise (mean [95% confidence interval] 2.8% [0.2, 5,4]) on proximal tibia trabecular bone volume fraction (Osteo-cise 1.5% [-1.2, 4.2]; controls -1.3% [-2.6, 0.1]) after 18 months due to changes in trabecular number (Osteo-cise 1.7% [-0.9, 4.3]; controls -1.1% [-2.4, 0.2]) but not trabecular thickness (Osteo-cise - 0.2% [-0.5, 0.2]; controls -0.2% [-0.4, 0.0]). In conclusion, this study supports the effectiveness of the Osteo-cise: Strong Bones for Life program as a real-world, pragmatic, evidence-based community exercise program to improve multiple musculoskeletal health outcomes in older adults at increased fracture risk. © 2019 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Do Additional Clinical Risk Factors Improve the Performance of Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) Among Postmenopausal Women? Findings From the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study and Clinical Trials

The ability of the fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) to discriminate between women who do and do not experience major osteoporotic fractures (MOFs) is suboptimal. Adding common clinical risk factors may improve discrimination. We used data from the Women's Health Initiative, a prospective study of women aged 50 to 79 years at baseline (n = 99,413; n = 5722 in BMD subset) enrolled at 40 US clinical centers. The primary outcome was incident MOFs assessed annually during 10 years' follow‐up. For prediction of incident MOF, we examined the area under the receiver operatic characteristic curve (AUC) and net reclassification index (NRI) of the FRAX model alone and FRAX plus additional risk factors (singly or together: type 2 diabetes mellitus, frequent falls [≥2 falls in the past year], vasomotor symptoms, self‐reported physical function score [RAND 36‐item Health Survey subscale), and lumbar spine BMD). For NRI calculations, high risk was defined as predicted MOF risk ≥20%. We also assessed calibration as observed MOF events/expected MOF events. The AUC value for FRAX without BMD information was 0.65 (95% CI, 0.65 to 0.66). Compared with the FRAX model (without BMD), the AUC value was not improved by the addition of vasomotor symptoms, diabetes, or frequent falls, but was minimally increased by adding physical function score (AUC 0.66, 95% CI, 0.66 to 0.67). FRAX was well‐calibrated for MOF prediction. The NRI of FRAX + additional variables versus FRAX alone was 5.7% (p < 0.001) among MOF cases and −1.7% among noncases (p > 0.99). Additional variables (diabetes, frequent falls, vasomotor symptoms, physical function score, or lumbar spine BMD) did not yield meaningful improvements in NRI or discrimination of FRAX for MOFs. Future studies should assess whether tools other than FRAX provide superior discrimination for prediction of MOFs. © 2019 The Authors. JBMR Plus published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Characteristics of Self-Reported Sleep and the Risk of Falls and Fractures: The Women's Health Initiative (WHI)

Sleep disturbances are common and may influence falls and fracture directly by influencing bone turnover and muscle strength or indirectly through high comorbidity or poor physical function. To investigate the association between self-reported sleep and falls and fractures, we prospectively studied 157,306 women in the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) using information on sleep quality, sleep duration, and insomnia from questionnaires. Annual self-report of falling two or more times (ie, "recurrent falling") during each year of follow-up was modeled with repeated measures logistic regression models fit by generalized estimating equations. Cox proportional hazards models were used to investigate sleep disturbance and time to first fracture. We examined the risks of recurrent falls and fracture by sleep duration with 7 hours as referent. We examined the risks across categories of sleep disturbance, insomnia status, and sleep quality. The average follow-up time was 7.6 years for falls and 12.0 years for fractures. In multivariable adjusted models, including adjustment for comorbidity, medications, and physical function, women who were short (≤5 hours) and long (≥10 hours) sleepers had increased odds of recurrent falls (odds ratio [OR] 1.28; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.23 to 1.34 and OR 1.25; 95% CI, 1.09 to 1.43, respectively). Poor sleep quality, insomnia, and more sleep disturbances were also associated with an increased odds of recurrent falls. Short sleep was associated with an increased risk of all fractures, and upper limb, lower limb, and central body fractures, but not hip fractures, with hazard ratios ranging from 1.10 to 1.13 (p < 0.05). There was little association between other sleep characteristics and fracture. In conclusion, short and long sleep duration and poor sleep quality were independently associated with increased odds of recurrent falls. Short sleep was associated with modest increase in fractures. Future long-term trials of sleep interventions should include falls and fractures as endpoints. © 2018 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Measures of Physical Performance and Muscle Strength as Predictors of Fracture Risk Independent of FRAX, Falls, and aBMD: A Meta-Analysis of the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Study

Measures of muscle mass, strength, and function predict risk of incident fractures, but it is not known whether this risk information is additive to that from FRAX (fracture risk assessment tool) probability. In the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Study cohorts (Sweden, Hong Kong, United States), we investigated whether measures of physical performance/appendicular lean mass (ALM) by DXA predicted incident fractures in older men, independently of FRAX probability. Baseline information included falls history, clinical risk factors for falls and fractures, femoral neck aBMD, and calculated FRAX probabilities. An extension of Poisson regression was used to investigate the relationship between time for five chair stands, walking speed over a 6 m distance, grip strength, ALM adjusted for body size (ALM/height2 ), FRAX probability (major osteoporotic fracture [MOF]) with or without femoral neck aBMD, available in a subset of n = 7531), and incident MOF (hip, clinical vertebral, wrist, or proximal humerus). Associations were adjusted for age and time since baseline, and are reported as hazard ratios (HRs) for first incident fracture per SD increment in predictor using meta-analysis. 5660 men in the United States (mean age 73.5 years), 2764 men in Sweden (75.4 years), and 1987 men in Hong Kong (72.4 years) were studied. Mean follow-up time was 8.7 to 10.9 years. Greater time for five chair stands was associated with greater risk of MOF (HR 1.26; 95% CI, 1.19 to 1.34), whereas greater walking speed (HR 0.85; 95% CI, 0.79 to 0.90), grip strength (HR 0.77; 95% CI, 0.72 to 0.82), and ALM/height2 (HR 0.85; 95% CI, 0.80 to 0.90) were associated with lower risk of incident MOF. Associations remained largely similar after adjustment for FRAX, but associations between ALM/height2 and MOF were weakened (HR 0.92; 95% CI, 0.85 to 0.99). Inclusion of femoral neck aBMD markedly attenuated the association between ALM/height2 and MOF (HR 1.02; 95% CI, 0.96 to 1.10). Measures of physical performance predicted incident fractures independently of FRAX probability. Whilst the predictive value of ALM/height2 was substantially reduced by inclusion of aBMD requires further study, these findings support the consideration of physical performance in fracture risk assessment. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research Published by Wiley Periodicals Inc.

Dysmobility Syndrome Independently Increases Fracture Risk in the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Prospective Cohort Study

We proposed the term "dysmobility syndrome" (DS) to identify individuals with impaired musculoskeletal health, a risk factor for falls and fractures. Whether DS is associated with increased risk of incident fracture is unknown. The Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) study enrolled 5994 men ages ≥65 years, between March 2000 and April 2002. We used baseline data to determine whether DS increased fracture risk, independent of the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX). Men met DS criteria at baseline if they had three or more of the following: appendicular lean mass/height² <7.26 kg/m² , total body fat >30%, spine or hip T-score ≤ -2.5, grip strength <30 kg, gait speed <1.0 m/s, and one or more fall within 12 months. We examined whether baseline DS increased the risk of hip and major osteoporotic fractures (MOFs) over a median of 14 years (IQR, 9 to 15 years). Among 5834 men mean age 74 ± 6 years, 471 (8%) had DS and 635 (11%) experienced an MOF, including 274 (5%) hip fractures. Age (per SD increase) conferred an HR of 1.72 (95% CI, 1.59 to 1.86), DS conferred an HR of 3.45 (95% CI, 2.78 to 4.29) and FRAX calculated with BMD (per %) conferred an HR of 1.10 (95% CI, 1.08 to 1.11) for MOF. Prediction of MOF using the FRAX score provided a concordance value of 0.67 ± 0.012 (concordance values are mean ± SE). Concordance increased to 0.69 ± 0.012 by adding DS and to 0.70 ± 0.012 by adding DS and age to the multivariate model. Kaplan-Meier curves indicated that men with both DS and a FRAX risk above the National Osteoporosis Foundation (NOF) treatment thresholds had higher MOF (HR 6.23; 95% CI, 3.10 to 12.54) and hip (HR 7.73; 95% CI, 5.95 to 10.04) fracture risk than men with neither condition. We suggest further studies to determine the optimal criteria for DS, and to test DS as a predictor of falls and fractures, especially in women. © 2018 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

High Serum Serotonin Predicts Increased Risk for Hip Fracture and Nonvertebral Osteoporotic Fractures: The MrOS Sweden Study

Because several studies have implicated serotonin as a regulator of bone mass, we here explore its potential association on fracture risk and falls, as on bone mineral density (BMD) and muscle strength, in humans. Serum levels of serotonin were analyzed in 950 men (aged 69 to 81 years), participating in the Gothenburg part of the population-based study MrOS Sweden. Men taking selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) had a mean value of 31.2 μg/L compared with 159.4 μg/L in those not taking SSRIs. SSRI users were excluded from further analysis. During 10-year follow-up, 224 men exhibited fractures, including 97 nonvertebral osteoporotic fractures (57 hip fractures), and 86 vertebral fractures. Serotonin was associated with hip fracture in linear analysis (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.27, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03-1.58) and to all fractures in a nonlinear manner, when quintiles of serotonin was included in quadratic terms (HR = 1.12, 95% CI 1.04-1.21). Men in serotonin quintile 5 had, in multivariable analysis, a HR of 2.30 (95% CI 1.31-4.02) for hip fracture and 1.82 (95% CI 1.17-2.85) for nonvertebral fractures compared with men in quintiles 1 to 4. Men in quintile 1 had, in multivariable analysis, a HR of 1.76 (95% CI 1.03-2.99) for nonvertebral fractures compared with men in quintiles 2 to 4. No association was found with vertebral fractures. Individuals in serotonin quintile 1 had higher prevalence of falls compared with quintiles 2 to 5 (odds ratio = 1.90, 95% CI 1.26-2.87). Serotonin was positively associated with hand-grip strength (r = 0.08, p = 0.02) and inversely with hip BMD (r = -0.10, p = 0.003). To assess the association between SSRIs and falls and fractures, the total MrOS Sweden cohort was examined (n = 3014). SSRI users (n = 90) had increased prevalence of falls (16% versus 33%, p = 0.0001) and increased rate of incident fractures (28.0 versus 44.7 per 1000 person-years, p = 0.018). We present novel data showing that high levels of serotonin predict an increased risk for hip fracture and nonvertebral osteoporotic fractures. © 2018 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Serum DHEA and Its Sulfate Are Associated With Incident Fall Risk in Older Men: The MrOS Sweden Study

The adrenal-derived hormones dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA) and its sulfate (DHEAS) are the most abundant circulating hormones and their levels decline substantially with age. Many of the actions of DHEAS are considered to be mediated through metabolism into androgens and estrogens in peripheral target tissues. The predictive value of serum DHEA and DHEAS for the likelihood of falling is unknown. The aim of this study was, therefore, to assess the associations between baseline DHEA and DHEAS levels and incident fall risk in a large cohort of older men. Serum DHEA and DHEAS levels were analyzed with mass spectrometry in the population-based Osteoporotic Fractures in Men study in Sweden (n = 2516, age 69 to 81 years). Falls were ascertained every 4 months by mailed questionnaires. Associations between steroid hormones and falls were estimated by generalized estimating equations. During a mean follow-up of 2.7 years, 968 (38.5%) participants experienced a fall. High serum levels of both DHEA (odds ratio [OR] per SD increase 0.85; 95% CI, 0.78 to 0.92) and DHEAS (OR 0.88, 95% CI, 0.81 to 0.95) were associated with a lower incident fall risk in models adjusted for age, BMI, and prevalent falls. Further adjustment for serum sex steroids or age-related comorbidities only marginally attenuated the associations between DHEA or DHEAS and the likelihood of falling. Moreover, the point estimates for DHEA and DHEAS were only slightly reduced after adjustment for lean mass and/or grip strength. Also, the addition of the narrow walk test did not substantially alter the associations between serum DHEA or DHEAS and fall risk. Finally, the association with incident fall risk remained significant for DHEA but not for DHEAS after simultaneous adjustment for lean mass, grip strength, and the narrow walk test. This suggests that the associations between DHEA and DHEAS and falls are only partially mediated via muscle mass, muscle strength, and/or balance. In conclusion, older men with high DHEA or DHEAS levels have a lesser likelihood of a fall. © 2018 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Functional Performances on Admission Predict In-Hospital Falls, Injurious Falls, and Fractures in Older Patients: A Prospective Study

Falls are common among older inpatients and remain a great challenge for hospitals. Despite the relevance of physical impairments to falls, the prognostic value of performance-based functional measures for in-hospital falls and injurious falls remains unknown. This study aimed to determine the predictive ability and accuracy of various functional tests administered at or close to admission in a geriatric hospital to identify in-hospital fallers and injurious fallers. In this prospective study, conducted in a geriatric hospital in Geneva, Switzerland, 807 inpatients (mean age 85.0 years) were subjected to a battery of functional tests administered by physiotherapists within 3 days (interquartile range 1 to 6) of admission, including Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB), simplified Tinetti, and Timed Up and Go tests. Patients were prospectively followed up for falls and injurious falls until discharge using mandatory standardized incident report forms and electronic patients' records. During a median length of hospital stay of 23 days (interquartile range 14 to 36), 329 falls occurred in 189 (23.4%) patients, including 161 injurious falls of which 24 were serious. In-hospital fallers displayed significantly poorer functional performances at admission on all tests compared with non-fallers (p < 0.001 for all). In multivariate analysis controlling for age, sex, previous falls, and fall as cause of admission, poorer functional performances on all functional tests predicted in-hospital falls and injurious falls (p < 0.001 for all). The SPPB only significantly predicted serious injurious falls (adjusted odds ratio [OR] = 0.76; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.60-0.96) and fractures (adjusted OR = 0.76; 95% CI 0.59-0.98). In conclusion, poor functional performances, as assessed by SPPB, are independent predictors of in-hospital falls, injurious falls, and fractures in patients admitted to a geriatric hospital. These findings should help to design preventive strategies for in-hospital falls and support the adoption of objective performance-based functional measures into routine hospital practice. © 2018 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Falls Predict Fractures Independently of FRAX Probability: A Meta-Analysis of the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Study

Although prior falls are a well-established predictor of future fracture, there is currently limited evidence regarding the specific value of falls history in fracture risk assessment relative to that of other clinical risk factors and bone mineral density (BMD) measurement. We therefore investigated, across the three Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Study cohorts, whether past falls predicted future fracture independently of FRAX and whether these associations varied with age and follow-up time. Elderly men were recruited from MrOS Sweden, Hong Kong, and USA. Baseline data included falls history (over the preceding 12 months), clinical risk factors, BMD at femoral neck, and calculated FRAX probabilities. An extension of Poisson regression was used to investigate the associations between falls, FRAX probability, and incident fracture, adjusting for age, time since baseline, and cohort in base models; further models were used to investigate interactions with age and follow-up time. Random-effects meta-analysis was used to synthesize the individual country associations. Information on falls and FRAX probability was available for 4365 men in USA (mean age 73.5 years; mean follow-up 10.8 years), 1823 men in Sweden (mean age 75.4 years; mean follow-up 8.7 years), and 1669 men in Hong Kong (mean age 72.4 years; mean follow-up 9.8 years). Rates of past falls were similar at 20%, 16%, and 15%, respectively. Across all cohorts, past falls predicted incident fracture at any site (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.69; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.49, 1.90), major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) (HR = 1.56; 95% CI 1.33, 1.83), and hip fracture (HR = 1.61; 95% CI 1.27, 2.05). Relationships between past falls and incident fracture remained robust after adjustment for FRAX probability: adjusted HR (95% CI) any fracture: 1.63 (1.45, 1.83); MOF: 1.51 (1.32, 1.73); and hip: 1.54 (1.21, 1.95). In conclusion, past falls predicted incident fracture independently of FRAX probability, confirming the potential value of falls history in fracture risk assessment. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research Published by Wiley Periodicals Inc.

Osteoporosis in Crisis: It's Time to Focus on Fracture

A crisis in osteoporosis treatment exists; the majority of those who sustain fracture do not receive treatment to reduce future fracture risk. This crisis presents an opportunity to focus the field from osteoporosis to fracture, the outcome of consequence. Proposed here is a change in focus suggesting that 1) attempts to define the level of trauma leading to fracture are counterproductive and that all fractures in older adults merit consideration of evaluation and 2) bone loss is not the entire problem but rather part of a broader syndrome including osteoporosis, sarcopenia, and other factors leading to fracture. With this approach, all fractures in older adults should be evaluated for potential lifestyle, non-pharmacological, and pharmacological interventions that could be implemented to reduce the risk of fracture recurrence. © 2017 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Low Testosterone, but Not Estradiol, Is Associated With Incident Falls in Older Men: The International MrOS Study

Fracture risk is determined by bone strength and the risk of falls. The relationship between serum sex steroids and bone strength parameters in men is well known, whereas the predictive value of sex steroids for falls is less studied. The aim of this study was to assess the associations between serum testosterone (T) and estradiol (E2) and the likelihood of falls. Older men (aged ≥65 years) from the United States (n = 1919), Sweden (n = 2495), and Hong Kong (n = 1469) participating in the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study had baseline T and E2 analyzed by mass spectrometry. Bioavailable (Bio) levels were calculated using mass action equations. Incident falls were ascertained every 4 months during a mean follow-up of 5.7 years. Associations between sex steroids and falls were estimated by generalized estimating equations. Fall rate was highest in the US and lowest in Hong Kong (US 0.50, Sweden 0.31, Hong Kong 0.12 fall reports/person/year). In the combined cohort of 5883 men, total T (odds ratio [OR] per SD increase = 0.88, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.86-0.91) and BioT (OR = 0.86, 95% CI 0.83-0.88) were associated with incident falls in models adjusted for age and prevalent falls. These associations were only slightly attenuated after simultaneous adjustment for physical performance variables (total T: OR = 0.94, 95% CI 0.91-0.96; BioT: OR = 0.91, 95% CI 0.89-0.94). E2, BioE2, and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) were not significantly associated with falls. Analyses in the individual cohorts showed that both total T and BioT were associated with falls in MrOS US and Sweden. No association was found in MrOS Hong Kong, and this may be attributable to environmental factors rather than ethnic differences because total T and BioT predicted falls in MrOS US Asians. In conclusion, low total T and BioT levels, but not E2 or SHBG, are associated with increased falls in older men. © 2017 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Sarcopenic Obesity and Its Temporal Associations With Changes in Bone Mineral Density, Incident Falls, and Fractures in Older Men: The Concord Health and Ageing in Men Project

Body composition and muscle function have important implications for falls and fractures in older adults. We aimed to investigate longitudinal associations between sarcopenic obesity and its components with bone mineral density (BMD) and incident falls and fractures in Australian community-dwelling older men. A total of 1486 men aged ≥70 years from the Concord Health and Ageing in Men Project (CHAMP) study were assessed at baseline (2005-2007), 2-year follow-up (2007-2009; n = 1238), and 5-year follow-up (2010-2013; n = 861). At all three time points, measurements included appendicular lean mass (ALM), body fat percentage and total hip BMD, hand-grip strength, and gait speed. Participants were contacted every 4 months for 6.1 ± 2.1 years to ascertain incident falls and fractures, the latter being confirmed by radiographic reports. Sarcopenic obesity was defined using sarcopenia algorithms of the European Working Group on Sarcopenia (EWGSOP) and the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health (FNIH) and total body fat ≥30% of total mass. Sarcopenic obese men did not have significantly different total hip BMD over 5 years compared with non-sarcopenic non-obese men (p > 0.05). EWGSOP-defined sarcopenic obesity at baseline was associated with significantly higher 2-year fall rates (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.66; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.16-2.37), as were non-sarcopenic obesity (1.30; 1.04-1.62) and sarcopenic non-obesity (1.58; 1.14-2.17), compared with non-sarcopenic non-obese. No association with falls was found for sarcopenic obesity using the FNIH definition (1.01; 0.63-1.60), but after multivariable adjustment, the FNIH-defined non-sarcopenic obese group had a reduced hazard for any 6-year fracture compared with sarcopenic obese men (hazard ratio 0.44; 95% CI 0.23-0.86). In older men, EWGSOP-defined sarcopenic obesity is associated with increased fall rates over 2 years, and FNIH-defined sarcopenic obese men have increased fracture risk over 6 years compared with non-sarcopenic obese men. © 2016 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Optimism, Cynical Hostility, Falls, and Fractures: The Women's Health Initiative Observational Study (WHI-OS)

Traits of optimism and cynical hostility are features of personality that could influence the risk of falls and fractures by influencing risk-taking behaviors, health behaviors, or inflammation. To test the hypothesis that personality influences falls and fracture risk, we studied 87,342 women enrolled in WHI-OS. Optimism was assessed by the Life Orientation Test-Revised and cynical hostility, the cynicism subscale of the Cook-Medley questionnaire. Higher scores indicate greater optimism and hostility. Optimism and hostility were correlated at r = -0. 31, p < 0.001. Annual self-report of falling ≥2 times in the past year was modeled using repeated measures logistic regression. Cox proportional hazards models were used for the fracture outcomes. We examined the risk of falls and fractures across the quartiles (Q) of optimism and hostility with tests for trends; Q1 formed the referent group. The average follow-up for fractures was 11.4 years and for falls was 7.6 years. In multivariable (MV)-adjusted models, women with the highest optimism scores (Q4) were 11% less likely to report ≥2 falls in the past year (odds ratio [OR] = 0.89; 95% confidence intervals [CI] 0.85-0.90). Women in Q4 for hostility had a 12% higher risk of ≥2 falls (OR = 1.12; 95% CI 1.07-1.17). Higher optimism scores were also associated with a 10% lower risk of fractures, but this association was attenuated in MV models. Women with the greatest hostility (Q4) had a modest increased risk of any fracture (MV-adjusted hazard ratio = 1. 05; 95% CI 1.01-1.09), but there was no association with specific fracture sites. In conclusion, optimism was independently associated with a decreased risk of ≥2 falls, and hostility with an increased risk of ≥2 falls, independent of traditional risk factors. The magnitude of the association was similar to aging 5 years. Whether interventions aimed at attitudes could reduce fall risks remains to be determined. © 2016 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Systematic review of risk prediction models for falls after stroke

BACKGROUND

Falls are a significant cause of morbidity after stroke. The aim of this review was to identify, critically appraise and summarise risk prediction models for the occurrence of falling after stroke.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was conducted in December 2014 and repeated in June 2015. Studies that used multivariable analysis to build risk prediction models for falls early after stroke were included. 2 reviewers independently assessed methodological quality. Data relating to model calibration, discrimination (C-statistic) and clinical utility (sensitivity and specificity) were extracted. A narrative review of models was conducted. PROSPERO reference: CRD42014015612.

RESULTS

The 12 included articles presented 18 risk prediction models. 7 studies predicted falls among inpatients only and 5 recorded falls in the community. Methodological quality was variable. A C-statistic was reported for 7 models and values ranged from 0.62 to 0.87. Models for use in the inpatient setting most frequently included measures of hemi-inattention, while those predicting community events included falls (or near-falls) history and balance measures most commonly. Only 2 studies reported any form of validation, and none presented a validated model with acceptable performance.

CONCLUSIONS

A number of falls-risk prediction models have been developed for use in the acute and subacute stages of stroke. Future research should focus on validating and improving existing models, with reference to the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) guidelines to ensure quality reporting and expedite clinical implementation.

Long-term proton pump inhibitor therapy and falls and fractures in elderly women: a prospective cohort study

Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) are widely used in the elderly. Recent studies have suggested that long-term PPI therapy is associated with fractures in the elderly, however the mechanism remains unknown. We investigated the association between long-term PPI therapy ≥1 year and fracture risk factors including bone structure, falls, and balance-related function in a post hoc analysis of a longitudinal population-based prospective cohort of elderly postmenopausal women and replicated the findings in a second prospective study of falling in elderly postmenopausal women. Long-term PPI therapy was associated with increased risk of falls and fracture-related hospitalizations; adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 2.17; 95% CI, 1.25-3.77; p = 0.006 and 1.95; 95% CI, 1.20-3.16; p = 0.007, respectively. In the replication study, long-term PPI use was associated with an increased risk of self-reported falling; AOR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.00-2.27; p = 0.049. No association of long-term PPI therapy with bone structure was observed; however, questionnaire-assessed falls-associated metrics such as limiting outdoor activity (p = 0.002) and indoor activity (p = 0.001) due to fear of falling, dizziness (p < 0.001) and numbness of feet (p = 0.017) and objective clinical measurement such as Timed Up and Go (p = 0.002) and Romberg eyes closed (p = 0.025) tests were all significantly impaired in long-term PPI users. Long-term PPI users were also more likely to have low vitamin B12 levels than non-users (50% versus 21%, p = 0.003). In conclusion, similar to previous studies, we identified an increased fracture risk in subjects on long-term PPI therapy. This increase in fracture risk in elderly women, already at high risk of fracture, appears to be mediated via increased falls risk and falling rather than impaired bone structure and should be carefully considered when prescribing long-term PPI therapy.