Modelling the Public Health Impact of MenACWY and MenC Adolescent Vaccination Strategies in Germany

INTRODUCTION

Invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) causes significant mortality and long-term sequelae. This study assesses the potential public health impact of adolescent vaccination strategies employing MenACWY and MenC vaccines in Germany, where the existing meningococcal immunisation programme predominantly involves MenC administration in toddlers.

METHODS

A dynamic transmission model was developed to simulate the carriage of five meningococcal serogroup compartments (AY/B/C/W/Other) from 2019 until 2060 within 1-year age groups from 0 to 99 years of age. IMD cases were estimated based on case-carrier ratios. The model considered vaccine effectiveness against carriage acquisition and IMD.

RESULTS

The model predicts that introducing MenACWY adolescent vaccination could lead to a considerable reduction in IMD incidence, with the potential to prevent up to 65 cases per year and a cumulative total of 1467 cases by 2060. This decrease, mainly driven by herd effects, would result in a reduction of IMD incidence across all age groups, regardless of vaccination age. Furthermore, implementing MenACWY vaccination in adolescents is projected to decrease annual MenACWY-related IMD mortality by up to 64%, equating to an overall prevention of 156 IMD deaths by 2060. These protective outcomes are expected to culminate in approximately 2250 life years gained (LYG) throughout the model's projected time horizon. In contrast, the adoption of MenC vaccination in adolescents is predicted to have minimal influence on both IMD incidence and mortality, as well as on LYG.

CONCLUSION

The results of this study demonstrate that implementing MenACWY vaccination for adolescents in Germany is likely to notably reduce IMD incidence and mortality across age groups. However, the introduction of MenC adolescent vaccination shows only limited impact. Considering the extensive healthcare resources typically required for IMD management, these findings suggest the potential for economic benefits associated with the adoption of MenACWY adolescent vaccination, warranting further cost-effectiveness analysis.

A comparison of international modelling methods to evaluate health economics of colorectal cancer screening: a systematic review protocol

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is becoming an increasing health problem worldwide. However, with the help of screening, early diagnosis can reduce incidence and mortality rates. To elevate the economic burden that CRC can cause, cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) can assist healthcare systems to make screening programmes more cost-effective and prolong survival for early-stage CRC patients. This review aims to identify different CEA modelling methods used internationally to evaluate health economics of CRC screening.

METHODS

This review will systematically search electronic databases which include MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science and Scopus. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidance recommendations will design the review, and the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) statement will be used to extract relevant data from studies retrieved. Two reviewers will screen through the evidence using the PICOS (Participant, Intervention, Comparators, Outcomes, Study Design) framework, with a third reviewer to settle any disagreements. Once data extraction and quality assessment are complete, the results will be presented qualitatively and tabulated using the CHEERS checklist.

DISCUSSION

The results obtained from the systematic review will highlight how different CRC screening programmes around the world utilise and incorporate health economic modelling methods to be more cost-effective. This information can help modellers develop CEA models which can be adapted to suit the specific screening programmes that they are evaluating.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42022296113.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of metformin+dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors compared to metformin+sulfonylureas for treatment of type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND

Patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) typically use several drug treatments during their lifetime. There is a debate about the best second-line therapy after metformin monotherapy failure due to the increasing number of available antidiabetic drugs and the lack of comparative clinical trials of secondary treatment regimens. While prior research compared the cost-effectiveness of two alternative drugs, the literature assessing T2D treatment pathways is scarce. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the long-term cost-effectiveness of dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP-4i) compared to sulfonylureas (SU) as second-line therapy in combination with metformin in patients with T2D.

METHODS

A Markov model was developed with four health states, 1 year cycle, and a 25-year time horizon. Clinical and cost data were collected from previous studies and other readily available secondary data sources. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was estimated from the US third party payer perspective. Both, costs and outcomes, were discounted at a 3% annual discount rate. One way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the impact of uncertainty on the base-case results.

RESULTS

The discounted incremental cost of metformin+DPP-4i compared to metformin+SU was $11,849 and the incremental life-years gained were 0.61, resulting in an ICER of $19,420 per life-year gained for patients in the metformin+DPP-4i treatment pathway. The ICER estimated in the probabilistic sensitivity analysis was $19,980 per life-year gained. Sensitivity analyses showed that the results of the study were not sensitive to changes in the parameters used in base-case.

CONCLUSIONS

The metformin+DPP-4i treatment pathway was cost-effective compared to metformin+SU as a long-term second-line therapy in the treatment of T2D from the US health care payer perspective. Study findings have the potential to provide clinicians and third party payers valuable evidence for the prescription and utilization of cost-effective second-line therapy after metformin monotherapy failure in the treatment of T2D.

Healthy eating and survival among elderly men with and without cardiovascular-metabolic diseases

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The strength of the associations of dietary scores with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality in elderly vary considerably between a priori scores. To assess whether healthy eating lowers the risk of CVD and all-cause mortality among elderly men.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The Zutphen Elderly Study (age 65-84 years) was divided into men with (n = 210) and without (n = 616) cardiovascular-metabolic diseases at baseline in 1985. Diet was assessed with the cross-check dietary history method. We created the "Dutch Healthy Nutrient and Food Score" (DHNaFS) and the "Dutch Undesirable Nutrient and Food Score" (DUNaFS). Associations of the scores with CVD and all-cause mortality were assessed using multivariable Cox regression models. Associations of scores with life years gained used general linear models. During a median follow-up of 10.6 years (IQR 5.8-15.9) 806 participants died, of whom 359 from CVD. In all men, diet scores did not predict death. Among men with cardiovascular-metabolic diseases, DHNaFS was associated with lower CVD (HR: 0.57; 95% CI: 0.35-0.93) and all-cause mortality risk (HR: 0.64; 95% CI: 0.44-0.94) comparing the highest vs. the lowest score tertiles. Men with cardiovascular-metabolic diseases in the highest vs. the lowest tertile of the DHNaFS lived approximately 2.5 years longer. The DHNaFS was not associated with CVD and all-cause mortality in men without cardiovascular-metabolic diseases. The DUNaFS was not associated with any of the outcomes.

CONCLUSION

A high quality diet was associated with a 40% lower mortality risk and 2.5 years longer life expectancy in elderly men with, but not without, cardiovascular-metabolic diseases.