Simple mathematical model for predicting COVID-19 outbreaks in Japan based on epidemic waves with a cyclical trend

BACKGROUND

Several models have been used to predict outbreaks during the COVID-19 pandemic, with limited success. We developed a simple mathematical model to accurately predict future epidemic waves.

METHODS

We used data from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan for newly confirmed COVID-19 cases. COVID-19 case data were summarized as weekly data, and epidemic waves were visualized and identified. The periodicity of COVID-19 in each prefecture of Japan was confirmed using time-series analysis and the autocorrelation coefficient, which was used to investigate the longer-term pattern of COVID-19 cases. Outcomes using the autocorrelation coefficient were visualized via a correlogram to capture the periodicity of the data. An algorithm for a simple prediction model of the seventh COVID-19 wave in Japan comprised three steps. Step 1: machine learning techniques were used to depict the regression lines for each epidemic wave, denoting the "rising trend line"; Step 2: an exponential function with good fit was identified from data of rising straight lines up to the sixth wave, and the timing of the rise of the seventh wave and speed of its spread were calculated; Step 3: a logistic function was created using the values calculated in Step 2 as coefficients to predict the seventh wave. The accuracy of the model in predicting the seventh wave was confirmed using data up to the sixth wave.

RESULTS

Up to March 31, 2023, the correlation coefficient value was approximately 0.5, indicating significant periodicity. The spread of COVID-19 in Japan was repeated in a cycle of approximately 140 days. Although there was a slight lag in the starting and peak times in our predicted seventh wave compared with the actual epidemic, our developed prediction model had a fairly high degree of accuracy.

CONCLUSION

Our newly developed prediction model based on the rising trend line could predict COVID-19 outbreaks up to a few months in advance with high accuracy. The findings of the present study warrant further investigation regarding application to emerging infectious diseases other than COVID-19 in which the epidemic wave has high periodicity.

A comparative study of machine learning algorithms for predicting domestic violence vulnerability in Liberian women

Domestic violence against women is a prevalent in Liberia, with nearly half of women reporting physical violence. However, research on the biosocial factors contributing to this issue remains limited. This study aims to predict women's vulnerability to domestic violence using a machine learning approach, leveraging data from the Liberian Demographic and Health Survey (LDHS) conducted in 2019-2020. We employed seven machine learning algorithms to achieve this goal, including ANN, KNN, RF, DT, XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost. Our analysis revealed that the LightGBM and RF models achieved the highest accuracy in predicting women's vulnerability to domestic violence in Liberia, with 81% and 82% accuracy rates, respectively. One of the key features identified across multiple algorithms was the number of people who had experienced emotional violence. These findings offer important insights into the underlying characteristics and risk factors associated with domestic violence against women in Liberia. By utilizing machine learning techniques, we can better predict and understand this complex issue, ultimately contributing to the development of more effective prevention and intervention strategies.

Machine learning approach to predict the biofuel production via biomass gasification and natural gas integrating to develop a low-carbon and environmental-friendly design: Thermodynamic-conceptual assessment

A hybrid energy cycle (HEC) based on biomass gasification can be suggested as an efficient, modern and low-carbon energy power plant. In the current article, a thermodynamic-conceptual design of a HEC based on biomass and solar energies has been developed in order to generate electric power, heat and hydrogen energy. The planned HEC consists of six main units: two electric energy production units, a heat recovery unit (HRU), a hydrogen energy generation cycle based on water electrolysis, a thermal power generation unit (based on LFR field), and a biofuel production unit (based on biomass gasification process). Conceptual analysis is based on the development of energy, exergy and exergoeconomic assessments. Besides that, the reduction rate of pollutant emission through the planned HEC compared to conventional power plants is presented. In the planned HEC, when hydrogen energy is not needed, excess hydrogen is feed into the combustion chamber to improve system performance and reduce the need for natural gas. Accordingly, the rate of polluting gases emitted from the cycle can be mitigated due to the reduction of fossil fuels consumption. Further, based on the machine learning technique (MLT), the level of biofuel produced from the mentioned process is estimated. In this regard, two algorithms (i.e., Support vector machine and Gaussian process regression) have been employed to develop the prediction model. The findings indicated that the considered HEC can produce about 10.2 MW of electricity, 153 kW of thermal power, and 71.8 kmol/h of hydrogen energy. In both training and testing sets, the Support vector machine model exhibits better behavior compared the two Gaussian process regression model. Based on machine learning technique, with increasing gasification pressure, the level of biofuel obtained from the process does not increase significantly.

Use of artificial intelligence for public health surveillance: a case study to develop a machine Learning-algorithm to estimate the incidence of diabetes mellitus in France

BACKGROUND

The use of machine learning techniques is increasing in healthcare which allows to estimate and predict health outcomes from large administrative data sets more efficiently. The main objective of this study was to develop a generic machine learning (ML) algorithm to estimate the incidence of diabetes based on the number of reimbursements over the last 2 years.

METHODS

We selected a final data set from a population-based epidemiological cohort (i.e., CONSTANCES) linked with French National Health Database (i.e., SNDS). To develop this algorithm, we adopted a supervised ML approach. Following steps were performed: i. selection of final data set, ii. target definition, iii. Coding variables for a given window of time, iv. split final data into training and test data sets, v. variables selection, vi. training model, vii. Validation of model with test data set and viii. Selection of the model. We used the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) to select the best algorithm.

RESULTS

The final data set used to develop the algorithm included 44,659 participants from CONSTANCES. Out of 3468 variables from SNDS linked to CONSTANCES cohort were coded, 23 variables were selected to train different algorithms. The final algorithm to estimate the incidence of diabetes was a Linear Discriminant Analysis model based on number of reimbursements of selected variables related to biological tests, drugs, medical acts and hospitalization without a procedure over the last 2 years. This algorithm has a sensitivity of 62%, a specificity of 67% and an accuracy of 67% [95% CI: 0.66-0.68].

CONCLUSIONS

Supervised ML is an innovative tool for the development of new methods to exploit large health administrative databases. In context of InfAct project, we have developed and applied the first time a generic ML-algorithm to estimate the incidence of diabetes for public health surveillance. The ML-algorithm we have developed, has a moderate performance. The next step is to apply this algorithm on SNDS to estimate the incidence of type 2 diabetes cases. More research is needed to apply various MLTs to estimate the incidence of various health conditions.

Turbidity prediction of lake-type raw water using random forest model based on meteorological data: A case study of Tai lake, China

Turbidity is an indication of water quality and enables the growth of pathogenic microorganisms. For drinking water treatment plants (DWTPs), violent fluctuations in turbidity are highly disruptive to operational performance due to the lag in process parameter adjustments. Such risks must be carefully managed to guarantee safe drinking water. Machine learning techniques have been proven to be effective for modeling complex nonlinear environmental systems, and this study adopted such a technique to develop a model for predicting source water turbidity for DWTPs to allow DWTPs to make proactive interventions in advance. A random forest (RF) model used preprocessed (empirical mode decomposition and quartile rejecting) meteorological factors (wind speed, wind direction, air temperature, and rainfall) as the input variables, to establish the turbidity prediction of a lake with significant turbidity in China's South Tai Lake. The modeling process included four main stages: (1) source data analysis, (2) raw data preprocessing, (3) modeling and tuning, and (4) model evaluation. The results of the RF model indicated that the correlation coefficient between the predicted and actual sequences is over 0.7, and more than 55% of the predicted values could control the errors within 20% compared to the actual measured values, suggesting that machine learning techniques are suitable for predicting the turbidity of raw source water. It was found that the RF model can provide a modest performance boost because of its stronger capacity to capture nonlinear interactions in the data. The findings of this study can inform the development of turbidity prediction models using readily available meteorological forecast data. The model can be applied to other DWTPs using similar shallow lakes as water sources.

Development of an automated system for the detection of genotype in polypoidal choroidal vasculopathy using retinal image phenotype

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Polypoidal choroidal vasculopathy (PCV) is a retinal disorder characterized by the presence of aneurismal polypoidal lesions in the choroidal vasculature. A single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) is a common genetic variant which may be associated with the disease. This study is to investigate the association of HERPUD1 (rs2217332) gene with PCV in the Indian population and develop an automated system for genotype and phenotype correlation using fundus images and machine learning methods.

METHODS

A cohort of 54 PCV patients and 120 control subjects were recruited for the study. Genotyping of SNP (HERPUD1, rs2217332) was performed by following polymerase chain reaction and direct sequencing method. Statistical association of SNP to PCV was determined using chi-square analysis. The acquired GG and AG images were preprocessed using an adaptive histogram. 19 and 18 texture features were extracted from the images in the PCV naïve cases and PCV patients on treatment, respectively. Student's independent t-test was then employed for the selection of significant features, which were input to the ensemble tree for automated classification. Leave-one-out validation was used to evaluate the system.

RESULTS

HERPUD1 rs2217332 SNP is significantly associated in PCV patients compared to control (P = 0.0296, odds ratio [OD] = 2.297, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.087-4.856) in the Indian population. High F1 and precision values of 85.71%, 86.84% and 85.71%, 93.75% were achieved in the pre and post- treatment phases, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that the HERPUD1 polymorphism is associated in PCV patients. Based on our analysis, it may be possible to predict the genotype and disease status of PCV patients using fundus images in assistance with a machine learning algorithm.

Innovative use of data sources: a cross-sectional study of data linkage and artificial intelligence practices across European countries

Background

The availability of data generated from different sources is increasing with the possibility to link these data sources with each other. However, linked administrative data can be complex to use and may require advanced expertise and skills in statistical analysis. The main objectives of this study were to describe the current use of data linkage at the individual level and artificial intelligence (AI) in routine public health activities, to identify the related estimated health indicators (i.e., outcome and intervention indicators) and health determinants of non-communicable diseases and the obstacles to linking different data sources.

Method

We performed a survey across European countries to explore the current practices applied by national institutes of public health, health information and statistics for innovative use of data sources (i.e., the use of data linkage and/or AI).

Results

The use of data linkage and AI at national institutes of public health, health information and statistics in Europe varies. The majority of European countries use data linkage in routine by applying a deterministic method or a combination of two types of linkages (i.e., deterministic & probabilistic) for public health surveillance and research purposes. The use of AI to estimate health indicators is not frequent at national institutes of public health, health information and statistics. Using linked data, 46 health outcome indicators, 34 health determinants and 23 health intervention indicators were estimated in routine. The complex data regulation laws, lack of human resources, skills and problems with data governance, were reported by European countries as obstacles to routine data linkage for public health surveillance and research.

Conclusions

Our results highlight that the majority of European countries have integrated data linkage in their routine public health activities but only a few use AI. A sustainable national health information system and a robust data governance framework allowing to link different data sources are essential to support evidence-informed health policy development. Building analytical capacity and raising awareness of the added value of data linkage in national institutes is necessary for improving the use of linked data in order to improve the quality of public health surveillance and monitoring activities.

The Application of Machine Learning Techniques in Clinical Drug Therapy

INTRODUCTION

The development of a novel drug is an extremely complicated process that includes the target identification, design and manufacture, and proper therapy of the novel drug, as well as drug dose selection, drug efficacy evaluation, and adverse drug reaction control. Due to the limited resources, high costs, long duration, and low hit-to-lead ratio in the development of pharmacogenetics and computer technology, machine learning techniques have assisted novel drug development and have gradually received more attention by researchers.

METHODS

According to current research, machine learning techniques are widely applied in the process of the discovery of new drugs and novel drug targets, the decision surrounding proper therapy and drug dose, and the prediction of drug efficacy and adverse drug reactions.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSION

In this article, we discussed the history, workflow, and advantages and disadvantages of machine learning techniques in the processes mentioned above. Although the advantages of machine learning techniques are fairly obvious, the application of machine learning techniques is currently limited. With further research, the application of machine techniques in drug development could be much more widespread and could potentially be one of the major methods used in drug development.