Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 Performance in Austrian COVID-19 Patients Admitted to Intensive Care Units with and without Diabetes

This study evaluated and compared the performance of simplified acute physiology score 3 (SAPS 3) for predicting in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) with and without diabetes in Austria. The Austrian national public health institute (GÖG) data of COVID-19 patients admitted to ICUs (n = 5850) were analyzed. Three versions of SAPS 3 were used: standard equation, Central European equation, and Austrian equation customized for COVID-19 patients. The observed in-hospital mortality was 38.9%, 42.9%, and 37.3% in all, diabetes, and non-diabetes patients, respectively. The overall C-statistics was 0.69 with an insignificant (p = 0.193) difference between diabetes (0.70) and non-diabetes (0.68) patients. The Brier score was > 0.20 for all SAPS 3 equations in all cohorts. Calibration was unsatisfactory for both standard and Central European equations in all cohorts, whereas it was satisfactory for the Austrian equation in diabetes patients only. The SAPS 3 score demonstrated low discrimination and accuracy in Austrian COVID-19 patients, with an insignificant difference between diabetes and non-diabetes. All equations were miscalibrated particularly in non-diabetes patients, while the Austrian equation showed satisfactory calibration in diabetes patients only. Both uncalibrated and calibrated versions of SAPS 3 should be used with caution in COVID-19 patients.

Performance in mortality prediction of SAPS 3 And MPM-III scores among adult patients admitted to the ICU of a private tertiary referral hospital in Tanzania: a retrospective cohort study

Background

Illness predictive scoring systems are significant and meaningful adjuncts of patient management in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU). They assist in predicting patient outcomes, improve clinical decision making and provide insight into the effectiveness of care and management of patients while optimizing the use of hospital resources. We evaluated mortality predictive performance of Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS 3) and Mortality Probability Models (MPM₀-III) and compared their performance in predicting outcome as well as identifying disease pattern and factors associated with increased mortality.

Methods

This was a retrospective cohort study of adult patients admitted to the ICU of the Aga Khan Hospital, Dar- es- Salaam, Tanzania between August 2018 and April 2020. Demographics, clinical characteristics, outcomes, source of admission, primary admission category, length of stay and the support provided with the worst physiological data within the first hour of ICU admission were extracted. SAPS 3 and MPM₀-III scores were calculated using an online web-based calculator. The performance of each model was assessed by discrimination and calibration. Discrimination between survivors and non-survivors was assessed by the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC) and calibration was estimated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test.

Results

A total of 331 patients were enrolled in the study with a median age of 58 years (IQR 43-71), most of whom were male (n = 208, 62.8%), of African origin (n = 178, 53.8%) and admitted from the emergency department (n = 306, 92.4%). In- hospital mortality of critically ill patients was 16.1%. Discrimination was very good for all models, the area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve for SAPS 3 and MPM₀-III was 0.89 (95% CI [0.844-0.935]) and 0.90 (95% CI [0.864-0.944]) respectively. Calibration as calculated by Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test showed good calibration for SAPS 3 and MPM₀-III with Chi- square values of 4.61 and 5.08 respectively and P-Value > 0.05.

Conclusion

Both SAPS 3 and MPM₀-III performed well in predicting mortality and outcome in our cohort of patients admitted to the intensive care unit of a private tertiary hospital. The in-hospital mortality of critically ill patients was lower compared to studies done in other intensive care units in tertiary referral hospitals within Tanzania.

Coagulation tests on admission correlate with mortality and morbidity in general ICU patients: An observational study

BACKGROUND

It is well known that low platelet count on admission to intensive care units (ICU) is associated with increased mortality. However, it is unknown whether prothrombin time (PT-INR) and activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT) on admission correlate with mortality and organ failure. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate whether PT-INR and APTT at admission can predict outcome in the critically ill patient after adjusting for severity of illness measured with Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 (SAPS 3).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data were retrospectively collected. APTT and PT-INR taken on admission and SAPS 3 score were independent variables in all regression analyses. Survival analysis was done with Cox regression. Organ failure was reported as days alive and free (DAF) of vasopressors and invasive ventilation, need of continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) and Acute Kidney Injury Network creatinine score (AKIN-crea).

RESULTS

A total of 3585 ICU patients were included. Prolonged APTT correlated with mortality with 95% confidence interval (CI) of hazard ratio 1.001-1.010. Prolonged APTT also correlated with DAF vasopressor, CRRT and AKIN-crea with 95% CI of odds ratio (OR) 1.009-1.034, 1.016-1.037 and 1.009-1.028, respectively. Increased PT-INR correlated with DAF vasopressor and DAF ventilator with 95% CI of OR 1.112-2.014 and 1.135-1.847, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Activated partial thromboplastin time prolongation was associated with mortality and all morbidity outcomes except the DAF ventilator. PT-INR increase at admission was associated with DAF vasopressor and DAF ventilator. APTT and PT-INR at admission correlate with morbidity, which is not accounted for in the SAPS 3 model.

Analysis of platelet-activating factors in severe sepsis by flow cytometry and its correlation with clinical sepsis scoring system: A pilot study

Background

Sepsis is a major global healthcare concern. Platelets and leucocytes play a key role in sepsis. Whole blood flow cytometry (FCM) is a powerful new technique for the assessment of leucocyte and platelet parameters and their functional state. In the present study, we have used FCM to examine platelet and leucocyte functions and parameters in sepsis patients.

Methods

Prospective, non-interventional cohorts of all adult patients with sepsis and history of intensive care unit stay for more than 24 h at mixed surgical- medical ICU were evaluated. The Simplified Acute Physiology Score-3 (SAPS 3) admission score was obtained, and whole blood FCM analysis of select platelets and leukocyte parameters were performed using a combination of monoclonal antibodies in a predefined panel. We also evaluated the correlation between these parameters and the severity of the illness, based on SAPS 3 admission score.

Results

Total leucocyte count (TLC) was statistically and significantly different between all the study samples, but platelet count was not. SAPS 3 acted as the best discriminant between the study groups. With a cut-off score of 55.5, SAPS 3 score predicted hospital mortality with a sensitivity of 82.8% and a specificity of 83.9%, with an area under receiver operating curves (AUROC) of 0.888 (95% CI = 0.807-0.969, p < 0.000). Parameters for CD62P, platelet-leucocyte aggregates (PLAs) and CD11b showed statistically significant differences between the patients and healthy volunteers. CD62P expression was positively correlated to PLA variables in severe sepsis patients. The median fluorescence intensity was found to be more informative than mean fluorescence intensity. New "62P adhesion index (62P AI)" and "PLA adhesion index" are proposed and is likely to be more informative.

Conclusion

SAPS 3 score was the most robust of the parameters evaluated. Our study suggest the idea that the incorporation of platelet and leucocyte activation parameters, rather than mere static counts, will add the existing prognostic model though we could not conclusively prove the same in this study.

Age, SAPS 3 and female sex are associated with decisions to withdraw or withhold intensive care

BACKGROUND

Intensive care treat critically ill patients. When intensive care is not considered beneficial for the patient, decisions to withdraw or withhold treatments are made. We aimed to identify independent patient variables that increase the odds for receiving a decision to withdraw or withhold intensive care.

METHODS

Registry study using data from the Swedish Intensive Care Registry (SIR) 2014-2016. Age, condition at admission, including co-morbidities (Simplified Acute Physiology Score version 3, SAPS 3), diagnosis, sex, and decisions on treatment limitations were extracted. Patient data were divided into a full care (FC) group, and a withhold or withdraw (WW) treatment group.

RESULTS

Of all 97 095 cases, 47.1% were 61-80 years old, 41.9% were women and 58.1% men. 14 996 (15.4%) were allocated to the WW group and 82 149 (84.6%) to the FC group. The WW group, compared with the FC group, was older (P < 0.001), had higher SAPS 3 (P < 0.001) and were predominantly female (P < 0.001). Compared to patients 16-20 years old, patients >81 years old had 11 times higher odds of being allocated to the WW group. Higher SAPS 3 (continuous) increased the odds of being allocated to the WW group by odds ratio [OR] 1.085, (CI 1.084-1.087). Female sex increased the odds of being allocated to the WW group by 18% (1.18; CI 1.13- 1.23).

CONCLUSION

Older age, higher SAPS 3 at admission and female sex were found to be independent variables that increased the odds to receive a decision to withdraw or withhold intensive care.

Determinants of the calibration of SAPS II and SAPS 3 mortality scores in intensive care: a European multicenter study

Background

The aim of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II and SAPS 3 is to predict the mortality of patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs). Previous studies have suggested that the calibration of these scores may vary across countries, centers, and/or characteristics of patients. In the present study, we aimed to assess determinants of the calibration of these scores.

Methods

We assessed the calibration of the SAPS II and SAPS 3 scores among 5266 patients admitted to ICUs during a 4-week period at 120 centers in 17 European countries. We obtained calibration curves, Brier scores, and standardized mortality ratios. Points attributed to SAPS items were reevaluated and compared with those of the original scores. Finally, we tested associations between the calibration and center characteristics.

Results

The mortality was overestimated by both scores: The standardized mortality ratios were 0.75 (95% CI 0.71–0.79) for the SAPS II score and 0.91 (95% CI 0.86–0.96) for the SAPS 3 score. This overestimation was partially explained by changes in associations between some items of the scores and mortality, especially the heart rate, Glasgow Coma Scale score, and diagnosis of AIDS for SAPS II. The calibration of both scores was better in countries with low health expenditures. The between-center variability in calibration curves was much greater than expected by chance.

Conclusions

Both scores overestimate current mortality among European ICU patients. The magnitude of the miscalibration of SAPS II and SAPS 3 scores depends not only on patient characteristics but also on center characteristics. Furthermore, much between-center variability in calibration remains unexplained by these factors.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01422070. Registered 19 August 2011.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13054-017-1673-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The handheld blood lactate analyser versus the blood gas based analyser for measurement of serum lactate and its prognostic significance in severe sepsis

BACKGROUND

This study was done to compare the accuracy of the Lactate Pro LT 1710 (Arkray Inc., Kyoto, Japan) with the Combiline Plus (Eschweiler GmbH & Co. KG Holzkoppelweg, Kiel, Germany), and also, to analyze the prognostic significance of serum lactates and Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 (SAPS 3) in patients of severe sepsis.

METHODS

106 patients of severe sepsis admitted to the ICU were screened. The serum lactate from an arterial sample analyzed in both the machines was recorded at admission and at 48 h. These patients were then followed up to the 28th day for mortality.

RESULTS

The Lactate Pro LT 1710 handheld point of care lactate meter provides consistent results comparable to the Eschweiler Combiline blood gas analyser. Serum lactate concentration was significantly higher in nonsurvivors at the time of admission (3.30 ± 1.26) and at 48 h (4.34 ± 1.73). Lactate clearance at 48 h appears to be a better predictor of mortality than the lactate levels at 0 h and 48 h. The mean SAPS 3 at admission amongst survivors was significantly less as compared to nonsurvivors. The SAPS 3 had improved to 47.44 (±11.79) in survivors at 48 h, while in nonsurvivors it had worsened to 81.98 (±12.32) (p = 0.00); thus, a worsening SAPS 3 at 48 h had a poorer prognosis.

CONCLUSIONS

The Lactate Pro LT 1710 provides similar results to the Combiline Eschweiler blood gas analyser and is a cheaper alternative. It would prove to be a boon in peripheral hospitals in the aggressive management of critically ill patients.

The predictive performance of the SAPS II and SAPS 3 scoring systems: A retrospective analysis

PURPOSE

The purpose was to analyze and compare the performance of Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II and SAPS 3 (North Europe Logit) in an intensive care unit (ICU) for internal disorders at a German university hospital.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This retrospective study was conducted at a single-center 12-bed ICU sector for Internal Medicine in Essen, Germany, within an 18-month period. Data for adult ICU patients (N = 548) were evaluated. SAPS II and SAPS 3 scores were assessed along with the predicted mortality rates. Discrimination was evaluated by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and calibration was evaluated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit C-test. The ratios of observed-to-expected deaths (standardized mortality ratio, SMR) were calculated along with the 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs).

RESULTS

The in-hospital mortality rate was 22.6%, which provided an SMR of 0.91 (95% CI, 0.77-0.99) for SAPS II and 0.62 (95% CI, 0.52-0.71) for SAPS 3. Both SAPS II and SAPS 3 exhibited acceptable discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.84 (95% CI, 0.79-0.89) and 0.73 (95% CI, 0.67-0.79), respectively. However, SAPS II demonstrated superior SMR-based discrimination, which was closer to the observed mortality rate, compared with SAPS 3. Calibration curves exhibited similar performance based on the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit C-test results: χ(2) = 7.10 with P = .525 for SAPS II and χ(2) = 3.10 with P = .876 for SAPS 3. Interestingly, both scores overpredicted mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, SAPS 3 overestimated mortality and therefore appears less suitable for risk evaluation in comparison to SAPS II.

Performance of the SAPS 3 admission score as a predictor of ICU mortality in a Philippine private tertiary medical center intensive care unit

Background

This study aimed to assess the performance of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 (SAPS 3) as a predictor of ICU mortality in critically ill patients of different case mixes admitted to an intensive care unit.

Methods

This retrospective cohort study was performed from January 2011 to August 2013 in the intensive care unit of a private tertiary referral center in the Philippines. Predicted ICU mortality was calculated using the SAPS 3 global model. Observed versus predicted mortality rates were compared, and the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) was calculated. The discrimination and calibration characteristics of the SAPS 3 system to predict ICU mortality were assessed.

Results

A total of 2,426 patients were included. The observed ICU mortality was 277 (11.42%). The SAPS 3 global model had fair to good discrimination with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.80 (CI 0.78–0.81). Good calibration was seen with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit at Ĉ = 11.51 (p = 0.175). Standardized mortality ratio was 0.36 (0.26–0.81).

Conclusion

The global SAPS 3 prediction model showed fair to good discrimination and good calibration in predicting mortality in our intensive care unit. Different levels of discrimination and calibration across the different subgroups analyzed suggest that overall ICU performance seemed to be affected by case mix variations.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/2052-0492-2-29) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.