A new dyslipidemia-based scoring model to predict transplant-free survival in patients with hepatitis E-triggered acute-on-chronic liver failure

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Hepatitis E virus (HEV)-triggered acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) has unacceptably high short-term mortality. However, it is unclear whether the existing predictive scoring models are applicable to evaluate the prognosis of HEV-triggered ACLF.

METHODS

We screened datasets of patients with HEV-triggered ACLF from a regional tertiary hospital for infectious diseases in Shanghai, China, between January 2011 and January 2021. Clinical and laboratory parameters were recorded and compared to determine a variety of short-term mortality risk factors, which were used to develop and validate a new prognostic scoring model.

RESULTS

Out of 4952 HEV-infected patients, 817 patients with underlying chronic liver disease were enrolled in this study. Among these, 371 patients with HEV-triggered ACLF were identified and allocated to the training set (n = 254) and test set (n = 117). The analysis revealed that hepatic encephalopathy (HE), ascites, triacylglycerol and apolipoprotein A (apoA) were associated with 90-day mortality (P < 0.05). Based on these significant indicators, we designed and calculated a new prognostic score = 0.632 × (ascites: no, 1 point; mild to moderate, 2 points; severe, 3 points) + 0.865 × (HE: no, 1 point; grade 1-2, 2 points; grade 3-4, 3 points) - 0.413 × triacylglycerol (mmol/L) - 2.171 × apoA (g/L). Compared to four well-known prognostic models (MELD score, CTP score, CLIF-C OFs and CLIF-C ACLFs), the new scoring model is more accurate, with the highest auROCs of 0.878 and 0.896, respectively, to predict 28- and 90-day transplantation-free survival from HEV-triggered ACLF. When our model was compared to COSSH ACLF IIs, there was no significant difference. The test data also demonstrated good concordance.

CONCLUSIONS

This study is one of the first to address the correlation between hepatitis E and serum lipids and provides a new simple and efficient prognostic scoring model for HEV-triggered ACLF.

The effects of arsenic exposure on blood pressure and early risk markers of cardiovascular disease: Evidence for population differences

BACKGROUND

Exposure to inorganic arsenic has been identified as a risk factor for elevated blood pressure and cardiovascular disease. Our aim with this study was to elucidate effects of arsenic on blood pressure and early risk markers of cardiovascular disease in a population with efficient arsenic metabolism that can modify other arsenic-related health effects.

METHODS

The study included 225 women in the northern Argentinean Andes. Exposure to arsenic was assessed by the sum of arsenic metabolite concentrations in urine. Blood pressure was measured in the supine position. Blood samples were collected for measurement of hemoglobin, homocysteine, triglycerides, apolipoproteins A and B, and cytokines in separated plasma.

RESULTS

The median arsenic concentration in urine was 200 µg/L (range 22-545 µg/L). Unexpectedly, urinary arsenic concentrations were inversely associated with both systolic (p=0.081), and diastolic (p=0.002) blood pressure, and with the ratio of apolipoproteins B/A (p<0.001). There was no clear sign of increased inflammation, measured as cytokine concentrations, in relation to arsenic. Furthermore, urinary arsenic was associated with low hemoglobin concentrations (p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results show that arsenic exposure was not associated with elevated levels of early risk markers for cardiovascular disease in this population. This provides evidence that the effects of arsenic on risk of cardiovascular disease differ between populations, which needs to be taken into account in risk assessment.

Association between high-normal levels of alanine aminotransferase and risk factors for atherogenesis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Liver disease has been associated with cardiovascular disorders, but little is known about the relationship between serum levels of alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and markers of atherogenesis. We investigated the relationship between low-normal and high-normal levels of ALT and an extended panel of cardiovascular risk factors among individuals with no known diseases in a primary care setting.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of data collected from 6442 asymptomatic patients at wellness visits to a primary care setting in central Virginia from 2010 through 2011. Serum levels of ALT were compared with levels of lipids and lipoproteins, as well as metabolic, inflammatory, and coagulation-related factors associated with risk for cardiovascular disease.

RESULTS

Serum levels of ALT were higher than 40 IU/L in 12% of subjects, and in the high-normal range (19-40 IU/L in women and 31-40 IU/L in men) in 25% of subjects. ALT level was associated with the apolipoprotein B level, concentration and particle size of very-low-density lipoproteins, concentration of low-density lipoprotein (LDL) particles (LDL-P), and percentages of small dense LDL (sdLDL) and sdLDL-cholesterol (sdLDL-C) (P < .0001 for all). A high-normal level of ALT was associated with higher levels of LDL-C, LDL-P, sdLDL-C, and sdLDL particles (P < .001 for all). These effects were independent of age, body mass index, and hyperinsulinemia. Increasing levels of ALT and fasting hyperinsulinemia (>12 μU/mL) synergized with increasing levels of triglycerides, very-low-density lipoprotein particles, LDL-P, sdLDL-C, and percentage of sdLDL-C. Levels of APOA1, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, and high-density lipoprotein-class 2 were associated inversely with serum level of ALT (P < .0001 for all).

CONCLUSIONS

In an analysis of asymptomatic individuals, increased serum levels of ALT (even high-normal levels) are associated with markers of cardiovascular disease.