Future climatically suitable areas for bats in South Asia

Climate change majorly impacts biodiversity in diverse regions across the world, including South Asia, a megadiverse area with heterogeneous climatic and vegetation regions. However, climate impacts on bats in this region are not well-studied, and it is unclear whether climate effects will follow patterns predicted in other regions. We address this by assessing projected near-future changes in climatically suitable areas for 110 bat species from South Asia. We used ensemble ecological niche modelling with four algorithms (random forests, artificial neural networks, multivariate adaptive regression splines and maximum entropy) to define climatically suitable areas under current conditions (1970-2000). We then extrapolated near future (2041-2060) suitable areas under four projected scenarios (combining two global climate models and two shared socioeconomic pathways, SSP2: middle-of-the-road and SSP5: fossil-fuelled development). Projected future changes in suitable areas varied across species, with most species predicted to retain most of the current area or lose small amounts. When shifts occurred due to projected climate change, new areas were generally northward of current suitable areas. Suitability hotspots, defined as regions suitable for >30% of species, were generally predicted to become smaller and more fragmented. Overall, climate change in the near future may not lead to dramatic shifts in the distribution of bat species in South Asia, but local hotspots of biodiversity may be lost. Our results offer insight into climate change effects in less studied areas and can inform conservation planning, motivating reappraisals of conservation priorities and strategies for bats in South Asia.

Habitat suitability maps for Australian flora and fauna under CMIP6 climate scenarios

BACKGROUND

Spatial information about the location and suitability of areas for native plant and animal species under different climate futures is an important input to land use and conservation planning and management. Australia, renowned for its abundant species diversity and endemism, often relies on modeled data to assess species distributions due to the country's vast size and the challenges associated with conducting on-ground surveys on such a large scale. The objective of this article is to develop habitat suitability maps for Australian flora and fauna under different climate futures.

RESULTS

Using MaxEnt, we produced Australia-wide habitat suitability maps under RCP2.6-SSP1, RCP4.5-SSP2, RCP7.0-SSP3, and RCP8.5-SSP5 climate futures for 1,382 terrestrial vertebrates and 9,251 vascular plants vascular plants at 5 km2 for open access. This represents 60% of all Australian mammal species, 77% of amphibian species, 50% of reptile species, 71% of bird species, and 44% of vascular plant species. We also include tabular data, which include summaries of total quality-weighted habitat area of species under different climate scenarios and time periods.

CONCLUSIONS

The spatial data supplied can help identify important and sensitive locations for species under various climate futures. Additionally, the supplied tabular data can provide insights into the impacts of climate change on biodiversity in Australia. These habitat suitability maps can be used as input data for landscape and conservation planning or species management, particularly under different climate change scenarios in Australia.

TreeGOER: A database with globally observed environmental ranges for 48,129 tree species

The TreeGOER (Tree Globally Observed Environmental Ranges) database provides information for most known tree species of their environmental ranges for 38 bioclimatic, eight soil and three topographic variables. It is based on species distribution modelling analyses of more than 44 million occurrences. The database can be accessed from https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7922927. Statistics that include 5% and 95% quantiles were estimated for a cleaned and taxonomically standardized occurrence data set with different methods of outlier detection, with estimates for roughly 45% of species being based on 20 or more observation records. Where sufficient representative observations are available, the ranges provide useful preliminary estimates of suitable conditions particularly for lesser-known species under climate change. Inferred core bioclimatic ranges of species along global temperature and moisture index gradients and across continents follow the known global distribution of tree diversity such as its highest levels in moist tropical forests and the 'odd man out' pattern of lower levels in Africa. To demonstrate how global analyses for large numbers of tree species can easily be done in R with TreeGOER, here I present two case studies. The first case study investigated latitudinal trends of tree vulnerability and compared these with previous results obtained for urban trees. The second case study focused on tropical areas, compared trends in different longitudinal zones and investigated patterns for the moisture index. TreeGOER is expected to benefit researchers conducting biogeographical and climate change research for a wide range of tree species at a variety of spatial and temporal scales.

Predicting the Potential Geographical Distribution of Rhodiola L. in China under Climate Change Scenarios

Rhodiola L. has high nutritional and medicinal value. Little is known about the properties of its habitat distribution and the important eco-environmental factors shaping its suitability. Rhodiola coccinea (Royle) Boriss., Rhodiola gelida Schrenk, Rhodiola kirilowii (Regel) Maxim., and Rhodiola quadrifida (Pall.) Fisch. et Mey., which are National Grade II Protected Plants, were selected for this research. Based on high-resolution environmental data for the past, current, and future climate scenarios, we modeled the suitable habitat for four species by MaxEnt, evaluated the importance of environmental factors in shaping their distribution, and identified distribution shifts under climate change scenarios. The results indicate that the growth distribution of R. coccinea, R. kirilowii, and R. quadrifida is most affected by bio10 (mean temperature of warmest quarter), bio3 (isothermality), and bio12 (annual precipitation), whereas that of R. gelida is most affected by bio8 (mean temperature of wettest quarter), bio13 (precipitation of wettest month), and bio16 (precipitation of wettest quarter). Under the current climate scenario, R. coccinea and R. quadrifida are primarily distributed in Tibet, eastern Qinghai, Sichuan, northern Yunnan, and southern Gansu in China, and according to the 2070 climate scenario, the suitable habitats for both species are expected to expand. On the other hand, the suitable habitats for R. gelida and R. kirilowii, which are primarily concentrated in southwestern Xinjiang, Tibet, eastern Qinghai, Sichuan, northern Yunnan, and southern Gansu in China, are projected to decrease under the 2070 climate scenario. Given these results, the four species included in our study urgently need to be subjected to targeted observation management to ensure the renewal of Rhodiola communities. In particular, R. gelida and R. kirilowii should be given more attention. This study provides a useful reference with valuable insights for developing effective management and conservation strategies for these four nationally protected plant species.

Blessing and curse of bioclimatic variables: A comparison of different calculation schemes and datasets for species distribution modeling within the extended Mediterranean area

Bioclimatic variables (BCVs) are the most widely used predictors within the field of species distribution modeling, but recent studies imply that BCVs alone are not sufficient to describe these limits. Unfortunately, the most popular database, WorldClim, offers only a limited selection of bioclimatological predictors; thus, other climatological datasets should be considered, and, for data consistency, the BCVs should also be derived from the respective datasets. Here, we investigate how well the BCVs are represented by different datasets for the extended Mediterranean area within the period 1970-2020, how different calculation schemes affect the representation of BCVs, and how deviations among the datasets differ regionally. We consider different calculation schemes for quarters/months, the annual mean temperature (BCV-1), and the maximum temperature of the warmest month (BCV-5). Additionally, we analyzed the effect of different temporal resolutions for BCV-1 and BCV-5. Differences resulting from different calculation schemes are presented for ERA5-Land. Selected BCVs are analyzed to show differences between WorldClim, ERA5-Land, E-OBS, and CRU. Our results show that (a) differences between the two calculation schemes for BCV-1 diminish as the temporal resolution decreases, while the differences for BCV-5 increase; (b) with respect to the definition of the respective month/quarter, intra-annual shifts induced by the calculation schemes can have substantially different effects on the BCVs; (c) all datasets represent the different BCVs similarly, but with partly large differences in some subregions; and (d) the largest differences occur when specific month/quarters are defined by precipitation. In summary, (a) since the definition of BCVs matches different calculation schemes, transparent communication of the BCVs calculation schemes is required; (b) the calculation, integration, or elimination of BCVs has to be examined carefully for each dataset, region, period, or species; and (c) the evaluated datasets provide, except in some areas, a consistent representation of BCVs within the extended Mediterranean region.

Estimating the Climate Niche of Sclerotinia sclerotiorum Using Maximum Entropy Modeling

Sclerotinia sclerotiorum, a fungal pathogen, causes world-wide crop losses and additional disease management strategies are needed. Modeling the climate niche of this fungus may offer a tool for the selection of biological control organisms and cultural methods of control. Maxent, a modeling technique, was used to characterize the climate niche for the fungus. The technique requires disease occurrence data, bioclimatic data layers, and geospatial analysis. A cross-correlation was performed with ArcGIS 10.8.1, to reduce nineteen bioclimatic variables (WorldClim) to nine variables. The model results were evaluated by AUC (area under the curve). A final model was created with the random seed procedure of Maxent and gave an average AUC of 0.935 with an AUC difference of -0.008. The most critical variables included annual precipitation (importance: 14.1%) with a range of 450 mm to 2500 mm and the mean temperature of the coldest quarter (importance: 55.6%) with a range of -16 °C to 24 °C, which contributed the most to the final model. A habitat suitability map was generated in ArcGIS 10.8.1 from the final Maxent model. The final model was validated by comparing results with another occurrence dataset. A Z-Score statistical test confirmed no significant differences between the two datasets for all suitability areas.

Global Risk Maps of Climate Change Impacts on the Distribution of Acinetobacter baumannii Using GIS

Impacts of climate change rank among the century's most significant ecological and medical concerns. As a result of climatic changes, the distribution of some bacterial species will alter across time and space. Numerous bacterial infections will reorganize as a result worldwide. Acinetobacter baumannii Bouvet and Grimont is one of the most significant and frequently occurring bacteria identified in soil and air. The COVID-19 pandemic has changed how bacteriologists perceive this species as a new threat to human health. In order to estimate the existing and future worldwide distribution of A. baumannii under various climate change scenarios, about 1000 A. baumannii occurrence records were employed. Given its superior accuracy and dependability versus alternative modeling techniques, maximum entropy implemented in MaxEnt was selected as the modeling tool. The bioclimatic variable that contributes the most to the distribution of A. baumannii is the mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio_11). The created current distribution model agreed with the species' actual globally dispersed distribution. It is projected that A. baumannii will experience a severe range expansion due to the increase in temperature brought on by global warming in different regions of its range. According to the risk maps created for 2050 and 2070 using two alternative RCPs, there are various regions that will be under risk of this bacterium as a result of rising temperature. Future data science and GIS evaluation of the current results are necessary, especially on a local level.

Genetic Adaptation of Siberian Larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb.) to High Altitudes

Forest trees growing in high altitude conditions offer a convenient model for studying adaptation processes. They are subject to a whole range of adverse factors that are likely to cause local adaptation and related genetic changes. Siberian larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb.), whose distribution covers different altitudes, makes it possible to directly compare lowland with highland populations. This paper presents for the first time the results of studying the genetic differentiation of Siberian larch populations, presumably associated with adaptation to the altitudinal gradient of climatic conditions, based on a joint analysis of altitude and six other bioclimatic variables, together with a large number of genetic markers, single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), obtained from double digest restriction-site-associated DNA sequencing (ddRADseq). In total, 25,143 SNPs were genotyped in 231 trees. In addition, a dataset of 761 supposedly selectively neutral SNPs was assembled by selecting SNPs located outside coding regions in the Siberian larch genome and mapped to different contigs. The analysis using four different methods (PCAdapt, LFMM, BayeScEnv and RDA) revealed 550 outlier SNPs, including 207 SNPs whose variation was significantly correlated with the variation of some of environmental factors and presumably associated with local adaptation, including 67 SNPs that correlated with altitude based on either LFMM or BayeScEnv and 23 SNPs based on both of them. Twenty SNPs were found in the coding regions of genes, and 16 of them represented non-synonymous nucleotide substitutions. They are located in genes involved in the processes of macromolecular cell metabolism and organic biosynthesis associated with reproduction and development, as well as organismal response to stress. Among these 20 SNPs, nine were possibly associated with altitude, but only one of them was identified as associated with altitude by all four methods used in the study, a nonsynonymous SNP in scaffold_31130 in position 28092, a gene encoding a cell membrane protein with uncertain function. Among the studied populations, at least two main groups (clusters), the Altai populations and all others, were significantly genetically different according to the admixture analysis based on any of the three SNP datasets as follows: 761 supposedly selectively neutral SNPs, all 25,143 SNPs and 550 adaptive SNPs. In general, according to the AMOVA results, genetic differentiation between transects or regions or between population samples was relatively low, although statistically significant, based on 761 neutral SNPs (F_ST = 0.036) and all 25,143 SNPs (F_ST = 0.017). Meanwhile, the differentiation based on 550 adaptive SNPs was much higher (F_ST = 0.218). The data showed a relatively weak but highly significant linear correlation between genetic and geographic distances (r = 0.206, p = 0.001).

Toxoplasma gondii in sheep: Serological occurrence at slaughterhouse level in Italy and environmental risk factors

Toxoplasmosis is a parasitic disease affecting a wide range of species, including humans, and can be responsible for important clinical manifestations such as abortion and neurological signs. Sheep show a remarkable susceptibility to its causative agent, Toxoplasma gondii, and zoonotic transmission may occur in case of consumption of undercooked meat obtained from infected animals. Toxoplasma gondii seroprevalence in sheep can significantly vary on a geographical basis, as shown by numerous surveys conducted worldwide. To investigate environmental and climate conditions that may affect the likelihood of ovine infection, 405 serum samples from selected sheep raised in 91 farms were collected from two abattoirs, with each abattoir receiving animals from two regions (1/Tuscany-Latium and 2/Campania-Basilicata). The seroprevalence of infection in all examined animals was 53.8%. Young animals (n = 165) had a lower likelihood of being T. gondii positive compared to the adults (OR = 0.21), and the seropositive rate of animals slaughtered in abattoir 2 was significantly higher than that of animals slaughtered in abattoir 1 (60.5 vs. 43.2%, p < 0.01). The significant bioclimatic variables (p < 0.05) associated with the presence of T. gondii antibodies were related to areas with a lower range of temperature and higher precipitation. In conclusion, this study expands on the interpretation of serological data, with the inclusion of environmental and climatic variables, as possible risk factors in the spread of toxoplasmosis in the study area. These findings provide novel insights to support public health measures, such as risk-based control plan, and contribute to a "One Health" approach, taking into account the environmental and climatic perspectives.

Discovering candidate SNPs for resilience breeding of red clover

Red clover is a highly valuable crop for the ruminant industry in the temperate regions worldwide. It also provides multiple environmental services, such as contribution to increased soil fertility and reduced soil erosion. This study used 661 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers via targeted sequencing using seqSNP, to describe genetic diversity and population structure in 382 red clover accessions. The accessions were selected from NordGen representing red clover germplasm from Norway, Sweden, Finland and Denmark as well as from Lantmännen, a Swedish seed company. Each accession was represented by 10 individuals, which was sequenced as a pool. The mean Nei's standard genetic distance between the accessions and genetic variation within accessions were 0.032 and 0.18, respectively. The majority of the accessions had negative Tajima's D, suggesting that they contain significant proportions of rare alleles. A pairwise F_ST revealed high genetic similarity between the different cultivated types, while the wild populations were divergent. Unlike wild populations, which exhibited genetic differentiation, there was no clear differentiation among all cultivated types. A principal coordinate analysis revealed that the first principal coordinate, distinguished most of the wild populations from the cultivated types, in agreement with the results obtained using a discriminant analysis of principal components and cluster analysis. Accessions of wild populations and landraces collected from southern and central Scandinavia showed a higher genetic similarity to Lantmännen accessios. It is therefore possible to link the diversity of the environments where wild populations were collected to the genetic diversity of the cultivated and wild gene pools. Additionally, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) models revealed associations between variation in temperature and precipitation and SNPs within genes controlling stomatal opening. Temperature was also related to kinase proteins, which are known to regulate plant response to temperature stress. Furthermore, the variation between wild populations and cultivars was correlated with SNPs within genes regulating root development. Overall, this study comprehensively investigated Nordic European red clover germplasm, and the results provide forage breeders with valuable information for further selection and development of red clover cultivars.

Ecological Niche Modeling of Water Lily (Nymphaea L.) Species in Australia under Climate Change to Ascertain Habitat Suitability for Conservation Measures

The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects a global temperature rise of 4.3 ± 0.7 °C by 2100 and an extinction of 8.5% in one out of every six species. Australia's aquatic ecosystem is no exception; habitat loss, fragmentation, and loss of biodiversity are being experienced. As the center for Nymphaea species distribution, it presents the culturally, ecologically, and scientifically important genus as the best candidate for habitat suitability assessment in climate change, whose habitat suitability is presumed to decline. The models were run according to the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) method, using one general circulation model (GCM). Projections were made for the current, past, and future in medium (4.5) and high (8.5) representative concentration pathways. Significantly, bio2 and bio15 were highly preferred among the species. Less distribution was noted in West Australia compared to the north, east, and south of the continent, while north of the continent in Western Australia, Northern Territory, and Queensland indicate more habitat contractions compared to the east and southeast of Queensland and New South Wales, although it receives high precipitation. Generally, the species respond variably to both temperature and precipitation variables which is a key species response factor for planners and decision makers in species habitat and biodiversity conservation.

Global maps of soil temperature

Research in global change ecology relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature in open areas at around 2 m above the ground. These climatic grids do not reflect conditions below vegetation canopies and near the ground surface, where critical ecosystem functions occur and most terrestrial species reside. Here, we provide global maps of soil temperature and bioclimatic variables at a 1-km2 resolution for 0-5 and 5-15 cm soil depth. These maps were created by calculating the difference (i.e. offset) between in situ soil temperature measurements, based on time series from over 1200 1-km2 pixels (summarized from 8519 unique temperature sensors) across all the world's major terrestrial biomes, and coarse-grained air temperature estimates from ERA5-Land (an atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). We show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C (mean = 3.0 ± 2.1°C), with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Over the year, soils in cold and/or dry biomes are substantially warmer (+3.6 ± 2.3°C) than gridded air temperature, whereas soils in warm and humid environments are on average slightly cooler (-0.7 ± 2.3°C). The observed substantial and biome-specific offsets emphasize that the projected impacts of climate and climate change on near-surface biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments. The global soil-related bioclimatic variables provided here are an important step forward for any application in ecology and related disciplines. Nevertheless, we highlight the need to fill remaining geographic gaps by collecting more in situ measurements of microclimate conditions to further enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global soil temperature products for ecological applications.

Spatial heterogeneity and temporal stability characterize future climatic refugia in Mediterranean Europe

Climate plays a major role in shaping biodiversity patterns over time and space, with ongoing changes leading to the reorganization of ecosystems, which challenges conservation initiatives. Identifying areas that could serve as possible climate change refugia for future biodiversity is, thus, critical for both conservation and management. Here, we identify potential future climatic refugia within the Euro-Mediterranean biome, which is a global biodiversity hotspot, while accounting for multiple emission climate change projections over the next 50 years. We developed two metrics of climatic variability: temporal stability and spatial heterogeneity. We then used a systematic conservation planning approach to identify climate-based priority areas. While we used a climate-based, species-neutral methodology, we deliberately implemented low climatic velocity thresholds, so that the identified climatic refugia would even be compatible with the needs of species with low dispersal capacity, such as plants. Our projections showed that future climatic refugia would be more frequently observed in mid-altitudes, for gradients with steep elevations, and mainly in the eastern part of the Euro-Mediterranean biome, with possible conflicts with existing land uses and future conservation implications. Climatic, land use, and topography results indicated that only a limited number of refugia would be hosted by high elevation habitats (>1500 m), raising possible concerns about the biodiversity of Mediterranean mountain regions. Our analyses show that the current network of protected areas captures future climatic refugia disproportionally, despite their importance for safeguarding present and future biodiversity in the Mediterranean. Key climatic refugia could limit the impacts of future climate change on biodiversity in mid-altitude and mountainous regions, and should be included in management guidelines for a climate-ready conservation design in the Mediterranean biome.

The changing risk patterns of Plasmodium vivax malaria in Greece due to climate change

It has great importance to study the potential effects of climate change on Plasmodium vivax malaria in Greece because the country can be the origin of the spread of vivax malaria to the northern areas. The potential lengths of the transmission seasons of Plasmodium vivax malaria were forecasted for 2041-2060 and 2061-2080 and were combined. The potential ranges were predicted by Climate Envelope Modelling Method. The models show moderate areal increase and altitudinal shift in the malaria-endemic areas in Greece in the future. The length of the transmission season is predicted to increase by 1 to 2 months, mainly in the mid-elevation regions and the Aegean Archipelago. The combined factors also predict the decrease of vivax malaria-free area in Greece. It can be concluded that rather the elongation of the transmission season will lead to an increase of the malaria risk in Greece than the increase in the suitability values.

The importance of environmental conditions in maintaining lineage identity in Epithelantha (Cactaceae)

The use of environmental variables to explain the evolution of lineages has gained relevance in recent studies. Additionally, it has allowed the recognition of species by adding more characters to morphological and molecular information. This study focuses on identifying environmental and landscape variables that have acted as barriers that could have influenced the evolution of Epithelantha species and its close genera.Our results show that soil pH, isothermality, temperature seasonality, and annual precipitation have a significant phylogenetic signal for Epithelantha. Soil type and landforms are also relevant as ecological barriers that maintain the identity of Epithelantha species.The variables associated with the soil (pH) have influenced the evolution of Epithelantha and probably in other genera of Cactaceae. Additionally, Epithelantha is frequent in the piedmont and haplic kastanozems. Bioclimatic variables reinforce the recognition of E. micromeris, and E. cryptica as independent species. Therefore, ecology can be considered as a factor to explain the high level of endemism in Cactaceae.

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution of Lime (16srii-B) and Alfalfa (16srii-D) Phytoplasma Disease Using MaxEnt

Witches' broom disease has led to major losses in lime and alfalfa production in Oman. This paper identifies bioclimatic variables that contribute to the prediction of distribution of witches' broom disease in current and future climatic scenarios. It also explores the expansion, reduction, or shift in the climatic niche of the distribution of the disease across the different geographical areas of the entire country (309,501 km²). The maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and geographical information system were used to investigate the potential suitability of habitats for the phytoplasma disease. This study used current (1970-2000) and future projected climatic scenarios (2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100) to model the distribution of phytoplasma for lime trees and alfalfa in Oman. Bioclimatic variables were downloaded from WorldClim with ± 60 occurrence points for lime trees and alfalfa. The area under the curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the model's performance. Quantitatively, the results showed that the mean of the AUC values for lime (16SrII-B) and alfalfa (16SrII-D) future distribution for the periods of 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100 were rated as "excellent", with the values for the specified time periods being 0.859, 0.900, 0.931, and 0.913 for 16SrII-B; and 0.826, 0.837, 08.58, and 0.894 for 16SrII-D respectively. In addition, this study identified the hotspots and proportions of the areas that are vulnerable under the projected climate-change scenarios. The area of current (2021-2040) highly suitable distribution within the entire country for 16SrII-D was 19474.2 km² (7.1%), while for 16SrII-B, an area of 8835 km² (3.2%) was also highly suitable for the disease distribution. The proportions of these suitable areas are very significant from the available arable land standpoint. Therefore, the results from this study will be of immense benefit and will also bring significant contributions in mapping the areas of witches' broom diseases in Oman. The results will equally aid the development of new strategies and the formulation of agricultural policies and practices in controlling the spread of the disease across Oman.

Climate change has different predicted effects on the range shifts of two hybridizing ambush bug (Phymata, Family Reduviidae, Order Hemiptera) species

AIM

A universal attribute of species is that their distributions are limited by numerous factors that may be difficult to quantify. Furthermore, climate change-induced range shifts have been reported in many taxa, and understanding the implications of these shifts remains a priority and a challenge. Here, we use Maxent to predict current suitable habitat and to project future distributions of two closely related, parapatrically distributed Phymata species in light of anthropogenic climate change.

LOCATION

North America.

TAXON

Phymata americana Melin 1930 and Phymata pennsylvanica Handlirsch 1897, Family: Reduviidae, Order: Hemiptera.

METHODS

We used the maximum entropy modeling software Maxent to identify environmental variables maintaining the distribution of two Phymata species, Phymata americana and Phymata pennsylvanica. Species occurrence data were collected from museum databases, and environmental data were collected from WorldClim. Once we gathered distribution maps for both species, we created binary suitability maps of current distributions. To predict future distributions in 2050 and 2070, the same environmental variables were used, this time under four different representative concentration pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5; as well, binary suitability maps of future distributions were also created. To visualize potential future hybridization, the degree of overlap between the two Phymata species was calculated.

RESULTS

The strongest predictor to P. americana ranges was the mean temperature of the warmest quarter, while precipitation of the driest month and mean temperature of the warmest quarter were strong predictors of P. pennsylvanica ranges. Future ranges for P. americana are predicted to increase northwestward at higher CO2 concentrations. Suitable ranges for P. pennsylvanica are predicted to decrease with slight fluctuations around range edges. There is an increase in overlapping ranges of the two species in all future predictions.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

These evidences for different environmental requirements for P. americana and P. pennsylvanica account for their distinct ranges. Because these species are ecologically similar and can hybridize, climate change has potentially important eco-evolutionary ramifications. Overall, our results are consistent with effects of climate change that are highly variable across species, geographic regions, and over time.

Influence of the Land Use Type on the Wild Plant Diversity

Studies on the impact of agricultural practices on plant diversity provide important information for policy makers and the conservation of the environment. The aim of the present work was to evaluate wild plant diversity across the agroecosystems in two contrasting regions of Bulgaria; Pazardzhik-Plovdiv (representing agroecosystems in the lowlands) and Western Stara Planina (the Balkan Mountains, representing agroecosystems in the foothills of the mountains). This study conducted a two-year assessment of plant diversity in different types of agricultural and forest ecosystems, representing more than 30 land use types. Plant diversity, measured by species number, was affected by the land use type only in Pazardzhik-Plovdiv region. More pronounced was the effect of the groups of land use types on the diversity, measured by the mean species number per scoring plot. Climatic conditions, measured by 19 bioclimatic variables, were the most important factor affecting plant species diversity. Six bioclimatic variables had a significant effect on the plant diversity, and the effect was more pronounced when the analysis considered pooled data of the two regions. The highest plant diversity was found on grazing land with sparse tree cover, while the lowest one was in the land use types representing annual crops or fallow. The study also established a database on weed species, relevant to agriculture. A number of common weeds were found in the Pazardzhik-Plovdiv region, while the most frequent species in the Western Stara Planina region were indigenous ones. Overall, the natural flora of Western Stara Planina was more conserved; eleven orchid species with conservation significance were found in the pastures and meadows in that region. The present study is the first attempt in Bulgaria to characterize the plant diversity across diverse agroecosystems representing many different land use types and environmental conditions. The results can contribute to nature conservation, biodiversity, and the sustainable use of plant resources.

The Past and Current Potential Distribution of the Fruit Fly Anastrepha obliqua (Diptera: Tephritidae) in South America

Anastrepha obliqua (Macquart) is an agricultural pest of wide geographic distribution infesting a vast list of host species in America. However, little is known about the past geographic distribution of this species. In this study, we investigated the potential past and current distribution of species in South America. In this sense, the MaxEnt algorithm was used to model the ecological niche of the species in the past (Last Interglcial Maximum; Last Glacial Maximum) and current periods. The results suggested that under the current climatic conditions, A. obliqua showed high environmental suitability to become established in most South American countries, especially in Brazil. The lowest suitability indices were observed in Chile, Argentina, and Uruguay. The past analysis for Last Glacial Maximum revealed that there was no significant change in the distribution potential of the species when compared to the current model; however, in the Last Interglacial Maximum period, there was a large reduction in the areas of suitability for the species when compared to the current and Last Glacial Maximum distribution models. The analysis also revealed vast areas of refuges for the species mainly on the coast of Brazil, as well as Venezuela, Bolivia, Guyana, and Surinam. The results presented here may be useful for future phylogeographical studies in order to test if the refuge areas concentrate greater genetic diversity for this species. In addition, our study provides important information for understanding the current dynamics of A. obliqua, which may be useful for control programs in places where this species can become a pest.

Comparative Analyses of Phytochemical Variation Within and Between Congeneric Species of Willow Herb, Epilobium hirsutum and E. parviflorum: Contribution of Environmental Factors

The plants in the Epilobium genus are considered to have several important medicinal properties due to their unique chemical composition. Although metabolic profiles of medicinal plants are mainly controlled by genetic factors, their production is also to some degree influenced by environmental factors, thus, variations in the levels of phytochemicals may represent long-term ecological and evolutionary interactions. In order to depict the magnitude of natural variation in level of chemical compounds among conspecific populations of Epilobium hirsutum (n = 31) and E. parviflorum (n = 16), metabolite profiling of aerial parts of plants was performed with gas chromatography/mass spectrometry analysis. Putative identification and structure annotation revealed the presence of 74 compounds including 46 compounds considered secondary metabolites categorized into flavonoids (n = 8), phenolic acids (n = 26), steroids (n = 3), and terpenes (n = 5) across all populations. Although there was a considerable natural variation among conspecific populations, principal component analysis revealed a clear separation of populations of each species based on the second main principal component which was highly correlated with eight secondary metabolites. The level of secondary metabolites was significantly correlated between species (r = 0.91), suggesting shared metabolic pathways underlying the production of chemical compounds. In addition, redundancy and variance partitioning analyses by including bioclimatic variables and altitude revealed a significant contribution of elevation in explaining the total variation of secondary metabolites in E. hirsutum. Two-thirds of all secondary metabolites were significantly correlated with altitude in E. hirsutum. The large-scale geographic analyses of populations revealed additionally detected flavonoids and terpenes (E. hirsutum and E. parviflorum) and steroids (E. hirsutum) for the first time. This study provides significant information on additional chemical compounds found across the distribution range of the two ecologically important species of willow herb and emphasizes the importance of geographic-wide sampling as a valuable strategy to depict intraspecific and interspecific variability in chemical traits.

The Response of Neotropical Dragonflies (Insecta: Odonata) to Local and Regional Abiotic Factors in Small Streams of the Amazon

Since the relative role of local and regional abiotic factors on the Odonata diversity in rainforest streams is still poorly understood, we evaluated the effects of these factors on adult Odonata (Insecta) from preserved and altered streams in the Amazonian region. Adult Odonata were sampled in 98 streams in the Eastern Amazon, Pará, Brazil. Six variables were used to measure local environmental factors: habitat integrity index; mean canopy over the channel; and four physical and chemical descriptors of the water. To measure regional environmental factors, six variables were also used: altitude gradient, three bioclimatic variables and two percentage forest variables. In partial redundancy analysis, both abiotic factors (local and regional) were important to explain the variation in the Odonata community. The Odonata community can be influenced by regional and local factors. The relationship between Odonata and the local (e.g., integrity, canopy cover, and physical and chemical descriptors of the water) and regional (e.g., bioclimatic and forest cover variables) environmental variables recorded in this study has important implications for the use of these organisms to monitor small streams of the Eastern Amazon. The scale at which habitat is measured is an important issue in community structuring studies considering the rapid environmental changes. It is of great importance to consider the different scales in studies assessing community structure, once an adequate habitat must meet the ecological needs of all stages of the life of the Odonata.

Predicting the effect of climate change on a range-restricted lizard in southeastern Australia

Climate change is ranked as one of the most severe threats to global biodiversity. This global phenomenon is particularly true for reptiles whose biology and ecology are closely linked to climate. In this study, we used over 1,300 independent occurrence points and different climate change emission scenarios to evaluate the potential risk of changing climatic conditions on the current and future potential distribution of a rock-dwelling lizard; the velvet gecko. Furthermore, we investigated if the current extent of protected area networks in Australia captures the full range distribution of this species currently and in the future. Our results show that climate change projections for the year 2075 have the potential to alter the distribution of the velvet gecko in southeastern Australia. Specifically, climate change may favor the range expansion of this species to encompass more suitable habitats. The trend of range expansion was qualitatively similar across the different climate change scenarios used. Additionally, we observed that the current network of protected areas in southeast Australia does not fully account for the full range distribution of this species currently and in the future. Ongoing climate change may profoundly affect the potential range distribution of the velvet gecko population. Therefore, the restricted habitat of the velvet geckos should be the focus of intensive pre-emptive management efforts. This management prioritization should be extended to encompass the increases in suitable habitats observed in this study in order to maximize the microhabitats available for the survival of this species.