Examining the predictive utility of behavioral economic demand indices and subjective effects on the actualized reinforcing value of menthol cigarettes and potential alternatives

INTRODUCTION

Considering recent and proposed bans on menthol cigarettes, methods are needed to understand the substitutability of potential menthol cigarette alternatives (MCAs) for menthol cigarettes. This study examined the prospective relationship between behavioral economic demand indices and subjective effects of usual brand menthol cigarettes (UBMC) and preferred MCAs with subsequent performance on a laboratory-based concurrent-choice task comparing UBMC and MCAs.

METHODS

Eighty participants who typically smoked menthol cigarettes completed this clinical lab study. After sampling each product, participants completed the cigarette purchase task (CPT) and modified cigarette evaluation questionnaire (mCEQ). Following one-week of substituting their preferred MCA for their UBMC, participants completed a 90-min concurrent-choice self-administration task comparing their UBMC and preferred MCA. Linear regression models explored associations between CPT demand indices and mCEQ subjective effects in the lab with subsequent response effort for UBMCs on the concurrent-choice task.

RESULTS

Three demand indices for UBMC were positively associated with UBMC response effort: Essential Value (EV; p=.02), Omax (p=.02), and breakpoint (p=.04). Four CPT demand indices for the preferred MCA significantly corresponded with UBMC response effort: EV (p=.03), Pmax (p=.04), Omax (p=.03), and breakpoint (p=.03). Subjective effects captured by the mCEQ were not associated with response effort.

CONCLUSIONS

Demand indices reflecting Persistence (i.e., sensitivity to escalating price) predicted effort to obtain UBMC puffs on the concurrent-choice task. Among this sample, the CPT captured information on the relative reinforcing value (i.e., addiction potential) of combustible tobacco products similar to the longer self-administration task.

IMPLICATIONS

In an ever-changing product market, assessing the reinforcing efficacy of menthol cigarettes and putative substitutes quickly and with validity is an important methodological tool for understanding abuse liability. Results suggest that behavioral economic demand indices of cigarette purchase task efficiently capture information on the relative reinforcing value of usual brand menthol cigarettes and plausible alternative tobacco products, similar to a 90-min in-laboratory self-administration task.

Presentation matters: Effects of cigarette purchase task design on systematic data and purchasing behavior

Hypothetical purchase tasks (HPTs) are effective tools for evaluating participants' demand for substances. The present study evaluated the effect of task presentation on producing unsystematic data and purchasing behavior in a sample of individuals who smoke cigarettes. Participants (n = 365) were recruited from Amazon Mechanical Turk and randomly assigned to complete two of three HPT presentations: List (prices on one page in an increasing order), Ascending (one price per page in an increasing order), or Random (one price per page in a random order). We evaluated outcomes using a mixed model regression with a random effect for participants. We observed a significant effect of task presentation on passing the criterion assessing consistency in effects of contiguous prices (i.e., Bounce; X²(2) = 13.31, p = .001). A significant effect of task presentation on Trend or Reversals from Zero was not observed. For purchasing behavior, we observed a significant effect of task presentation on R², X²(2) = 17.89, p < .001; BP₁, X²(2) = 13.64, p = .001; ln(α), X²(2) = 332.94, p < .001; and ln(Omax), X²(2) = 20.26, p < .001; we did not observe a significant effect of task presentation on ln(Q₀) or ln(Pmax). We recommend against using the Random HPT presentation to avoid unsystematic data. While the List and Ascending presentations do not differ across unsystematic criteria or purchasing behavior, the List presentation may be preferred due to participant experience. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Hyperbolic discounting and exponentiated demand: Modeling demand for cigarettes in three dimensions

Behavioral economics has been a fruitful area of research in substance use. Mathematical descriptions of how individuals temporally discount the value of a commodity have been correlated with substance use and mathematical descriptions of drug consumption decreasing as a function of price (i.e., demand) predict maladaptive substance use. While there is a logical assumption that temporal factors affect demand for a drug, little has been done to merge these models. Thus, the purpose of this study was to combine models of discounting and demand, extending Howard Rachlin's work and contributions to novel areas of study. Data from 85 participants from Amazon Mechanical Turk (MTurk) who completed a hypothetical cigarette purchase task that included price of and delay to cigarettes were analyzed. Multilevel modeling was used to determine descriptive accuracy of combined additive and multiplicative models of discounting and demand. Of the discounting models used in conjunction with the exponentiated demand equation, the Rachlin hyperboloid best described the delay dimension of consumption. The multiplicative version of the Rachlin equation applied to both delay and price outperformed other models tested. Therefore, existing models of discounting and demand can be extended to modeling consumption data from complex multidimensional experimental arrangements.

A Bayesian hierarchical model for individual participant data meta-analysis of demand curves

Individual participant data meta-analysis is a frequently used method to combine and contrast data from multiple independent studies. Bayesian hierarchical models are increasingly used to appropriately take into account potential heterogeneity between studies. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for individual participant data generated from the Cigarette Purchase Task (CPT). Data from the CPT details how demand for cigarettes varies as a function of price, which is usually described as an exponential demand curve. As opposed to the conventional random-effects meta-analysis methods, Bayesian hierarchical models are able to estimate both the study-specific and population-level parameters simultaneously without relying on the normality assumptions. We applied the proposed model to a meta-analysis with baseline CPT data from six studies and compared the results from the proposed model and a two-step conventional random-effects meta-analysis approach. We conducted extensive simulation studies to investigate the performance of the proposed approach and discussed the benefits of using the Bayesian hierarchical model for individual participant data meta-analysis of demand curves.

Using the Cigarette Purchase Task to examine the relative reinforcing value of cigarettes among mothers with versus without opioid dependence

The Cigarette Purchase Task (CPT), in which participants estimate the number of cigarettes they would smoke across increasing cigarette prices, measures the relative reinforcing value of cigarettes. Although opioid-dependent individuals are particularly vulnerable to tobacco addiction, more research is needed to elucidate whether and to what extent their motivation to smoke differs from not-opioid-dependent smokers controlling for potential sociodemographic differences. Participants were 173 women (65 opioid-dependent) in an ongoing clinical trial for smoking cessation. Baseline CPT responses were compared between opioid-dependent and not-opioid-dependent women using five demand indices: Demand Intensity; O_max; P_max; Breakpoint (BP); and α, and two latent factors: Amplitude and Persistence. Final regression models adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics differing between the two groups. Opioid-dependent women had greater demand Intensity (i.e., number of cigarettes they would smoke if they were free) than not-opioid dependent women in the adjusted model, F(1, 156) = 6.93, p = .016. No other demand indices differed significantly. Regarding latent factors, demand Amplitude (i.e., volumetric consumption), but not Persistence (i.e., price insensitivity), was greater for opioid-dependent women in the adjusted model, F(1, 146) = 4.04, p = .046. These results further demonstrate that the CPT is a highly sensitive task that can illuminate potentially important individual and population differences in the relative reinforcing value of smoking. Greater demand Intensity and Amplitude differentiated smokers with comorbid opioid dependence; thus, decreasing smoking prevalence among opioid-dependent populations may require policies and interventions that can decrease cigarette demand Intensity and Amplitude. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

A two-part mixed effects model for cigarette purchase task data

The Cigarette Purchase Task is a behavioral economic assessment tool designed to measure the relative reinforcing efficacy of cigarette smoking across different prices. An exponential demand equation has become a standard model for analyzing purchase task data, but its utility is compromised by its inability to accommodate values of zero consumption. We propose a two-part mixed effects model that keeps the same exponential demand equation for modeling nonzero consumption values, while providing a logistic regression for the binary outcome of zero versus nonzero consumption. Therefore, the proposed model can accommodate zero consumption values and retain the features of the exponential demand equation at the same time. As a byproduct, the logistic regression component of the proposed model provides a new demand index, the "derived breakpoint", for the price above which a subject is more likely to be abstinent than to be smoking. We apply the proposed model to data collected at baseline from college students (N = 1,217) enrolled in a randomized clinical trial utilizing financial incentives to motivate tobacco cessation. Monte Carlo simulations showed that the proposed model provides better fits than an existing model. We note that the proposed methodology is applicable to other purchase task data, for example, drugs of abuse.

Analysis of cigarette purchase task instrument data with a left-censored mixed effects model

The drug purchase task is a frequently used instrument for measuring the relative reinforcing efficacy (RRE) of a substance, a central concept in psychopharmacological research. Although a purchase task instrument, such as the cigarette purchase task (CPT), provides a comprehensive and inexpensive way to assess various aspects of a drug's RRE, the application of conventional statistical methods to data generated from such an instrument may not be adequate by simply ignoring or replacing the extra zeros or missing values in the data with arbitrary small consumption values, for example, 0.001. We applied the left-censored mixed effects model to CPT data from a smoking cessation study of college students and demonstrated its superiority over the existing methods with simulation studies. Theoretical implications of the findings, limitations of the proposed method, and future directions of research are also discussed.