Deductible imputation in administrative medical claims datasets

OBJECTIVE

To validate imputation methods used to infer plan-level deductibles and determine which enrollees are in high-deductible health plans (HDHPs) in administrative claims datasets.

DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SETTING

2017 medical and pharmaceutical claims from OptumLabs Data Warehouse for US individuals <65 continuously enrolled in an employer-sponsored plan. Data include enrollee and plan characteristics, deductible spending, plan spending, and actual plan-level deductibles.

STUDY DESIGN

We impute plan deductibles using four methods: (1) parametric prediction using individual-level spending; (2) parametric prediction with imputation and plan characteristics; (3) highest plan-specific mode of individual annual deductible spending; and (4) deductible spending at the 80th percentile among individuals meeting their deductible. We compare deductibles' levels and categories for imputed versus actual deductibles.

DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS

Not applicable.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

All methods had a positive predictive value (PPV) for determining high- versus low-deductible plans of ≥87%; negative predictive values (NPV) were lower. The method imputing plan-specific deductible spending modes was most accurate and least computationally intensive (PPV: 95%; NPV: 91%). This method also best correlated with actual deductible levels; 69% of imputed deductibles were within $250 of the true deductible.

CONCLUSIONS

In the absence of plan structure data, imputing plan-specific modes of individual annual deductible spending best correlates with true deductibles and best predicts enrollees in HDHPs.

High-deductible Health Plans and Nonfatal Opioid Overdose

OBJECTIVES

Opioid-related overdose is a public health emergency in the United States. Meanwhile, high-deductible health plans (HDHPs) have become more prevalent in the United States over the last 2 decades, raising concern about their potential for discouraging high-need populations, like those with opioid use disorder (OUD), from engaging in care that may mitigate the probability of overdose. This study assesses the impact of an employer offering an HDHP on nonfatal opioid overdose among commercially insured individuals with OUD in the United States.

RESEARCH DESIGN

We used deidentified insurance claims data from 2007 to 2017 with 97,788 person-years. We used an intent-to-treat, difference-in-differences regression framework to estimate the change in the probability of a nonfatal opioid overdose among enrollees with OUD whose employers began offering an HDHP insurance option during the study period compared with the change among those whose employer never offered an HDHP. We also used an event-study model to account for dynamic time-varying treatment effects.

RESULTS

Across both comparison and treatment groups, 2% of the sample experienced a nonfatal opioid overdose during the study period. Our primary model and robustness checks revealed no impact of HDHP offer on the probability of a nonfatal overdose.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggests that HDHP offer was not associated with an observed increase in the probability of nonfatal opioid overdose among commercially insured person-years with OUD. However, given the strong evidence that medications for OUD (MOUD) can reduce the risk of overdose, research should explore which facets of insurance design may impact MOUD use.

The December Effect in Pediatric Elective Surgery Utilization: Differences Between Privately and Publicly Insured Children

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study was to identify differences in December elective surgery utilization between privately and publicly insured children, given that increases in the prevalence and size of annual deductibles may be driving more families with commercial health insurance to delay elective pediatric surgical procedures until later in the calendar year.

STUDY DESIGN

We identified patients aged <18 years who underwent myringotomy, tonsillectomy ± adenoidectomy, tympanoplasty, hydrocelectomy, orchidopexy, distal hypospadias repair, or repair of inguinal, umbilical, or epigastric hernia using the 2012-2019 state inpatient and ambulatory surgery and services databases of 9 states. Log-binomial regression models were used to compare relative probabilities of procedures being performed each month. Linear regression models were used to evaluate temporal trends in the proportions of procedures performed in December.

RESULTS

Our study cohort (n = 1 001 728) consisted of 56.7% privately insured and 41.8% publicly insured children. Peak procedure utilization among privately and publicly insured children was in December (10.1%) and June (9.6%), respectively. Privately insured children were 24% (95% CI 22%-26%) more likely to undergo surgery in December (P < .001), with a significant increase seen for 8 of 9 procedures. There was no trend over time in the percentage of procedures performed in December, except for hydrocelectomies, which increased by 0.4 percentage points/year among privately insured children (P = .02).

CONCLUSIONS

Privately insured children are >20% more likely than publicly insured children to undergo elective surgery in December. However, despite increases in the prevalence of high deductibles, the proportion of procedures performed in December has not increased over recent years.

Do high-deductible health plans affect price paid for childbirth?

OBJECTIVE

To test whether out-of-pocket costs and negotiated hospital prices for childbirth change after enrollment in high-deductible health plans (HDHPs) and whether price effects differ in markets with more hospitals.

DATA SOURCES

Administrative medical claims data from 2010 to 2014 from three large commercial insurers with plans in all U.S. states provided by the Health Care Cost Institute (HCCI).

STUDY DESIGN

I identify employer groups that switched from non-HDHPs in 1 year to HDHPs in a subsequent year. I estimate enrollees' change in out-of-pocket costs and negotiated hospital prices for childbirth after HDHP switch, relative to a comparison group of employers that do not switch plans. I use a triple-difference design to estimate price changes for enrollees in markets with more hospital choices. Finally, I re-estimate models with hospital-fixed effects.

DATA COLLECTION

From the HCCI sample, childbearing women enrolled in an employer-sponsored plan with at least 10 people.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Switching to an HDHP increases out-of-pocket cost $227 (p < 0.001; comparison group base $790) and has no meaningful effect on hospital-negotiated prices (-$26, p = 0.756; comparison group base $5821). HDHP switch is associated with a marginally statistically significant price increase in markets with three or fewer hospitals ($343, p = 0.096; comparison group base $5806) and, relative to those markets, with a price decrease in markets with more than three hospitals (-$512; p = 0.028). Predicted prices decrease from $5702 to $5551 after HDHP switch in markets with more than three hospitals due primarily to lower prices conditional on using the same hospital.

CONCLUSIONS

Prices for childbirth in markets with more hospitals decrease after HDHP switch due to lower hospital prices for HDHPs relative to prices at those same hospitals for non-HDHPs. These results reinforce previous findings that HDHPs do not promote price shopping but suggest negotiated prices may be lower for HDHP enrollees.

Comparing Health Care Financial Burden With an Alternative Measure of Unaffordability

Health insurance plans with high deductibles increase exposure to health care costs, raising concerns about how the growth in these plans may be impacting both the financial burden of health care expenditures on families and their access to health care. We find that foregoing medical care is common among low-income, privately insured families, occurring at a greater rate than those with higher incomes or Medicare coverage. To better understand the relationship between out-of-pocket (OOP) spending and access, we used the 2011-2014 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) data and a logistic model to analyze the likelihood of avoiding or delaying needed medical care based on health insurance design and other individual and family characteristics. We find that avoiding or delaying medical care is strongly correlated with coverage under a high-deductible health plan, and with depression, poor perceived health, or poverty. However, it is relatively independent of the percent of income spent on OOP costs, making the percent of income spent on OOP costs by itself a poor measure of health care unaffordability. Individuals who spend a small percentage of their income on health care costs may still be extremely burdened by their health plan when financial concerns prevent access to health care. This work emphasizes the importance of insurance design as a predictor of access and the need to expand the definition of financial barriers to care beyond expenditures, particularly for the low-income, privately insured population.

Health Insurance, Health Savings Accounts and Healthcare Utilization

Assuming symmetric information, we show that a high-deductible health plan (HDHP) combined with a tax-favored health savings account (HSA) induces more savings and less treatment compared with a full coverage plan under reasonable risk preferences. Furthermore, a higher tax subsidy increases savings in any case but decreases medical utilization if and only if treatment expenses are above the deductible. A larger deductible increases savings but does not necessarily decrease healthcare utilization. Whether an HDHP/HSA combination is preferred over a full coverage contract depends on absolute risk aversion. A higher tax advantage increases the attractiveness of an HDHP/HSA combination, whereas the effects of changes in the deductible are ambiguous. The paper shows that a potential regulator needs to carefully set the size of the deductible as only in a certain corridor of the probability of sickness, its effect on aggregate healthcare costs are unambiguously favorable.

High deductible health plans: does cost sharing stimulate increased consumer sophistication?

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether increased cost sharing in health insurance plans induces higher levels of consumer sophistication in a non-elderly population.

STUDY DESIGN

This analysis is based on the collection of survey and demographic data collected from enrollees in the RAND health insurance experiment (HIE). During the RAND HIE, enrollees were randomly assigned to different levels of cost sharing (0, 25, 50 and 95%).

METHODS

The study population compromises about 2000 people enrolled in the RAND HIE, between the years 1974 and 1982. Effects on health-care decision making were measured using the results of a standardized questionnaire, administered at the beginning and end of the experiment. Points of enquiry included whether or not enrollees' (i) recognized the need for second opinions (ii) questioned the effectiveness of certain therapies and (iii) researched the background/skill of their medical providers. Consumer sophistication was also measured for regular health-care consumers, as indicated by the presence of a chronic disease.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We found no statically significant changes (P < 0.05) in the health-care decision-making strategies between individuals randomized to high cost sharing plans and low cost sharing plans. Furthermore, we did not find a stronger effect for patients with a chronic disease.

CONCLUSIONS

The evidence from the RAND HIE does not support the hypothesis that a higher level of cost sharing incentivizes the development of consumer sophistication. As a result, cost sharing alone will not promote individuals to become more selective in their health-care decision-making.

Two-year trends in cancer screening among low socioeconomic status women in an HMO-based high-deductible health plan

BACKGROUND

Cancer screening is often fully covered under high-deductible health plans (HDHP), but low socioeconomic status (SES) women still might forego testing.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the impact of switching to a HDHP on breast and cervical cancer screening among women of low SES.

DESIGN

Pre-post with comparison group.

PARTICIPANTS

Four thousand one hundred and eighty-eight health plan members enrolled for one year before and up to two years after an employer-mandated switch from a traditional HMO to an HMO-based HDHP, compared with 9418 propensity score matched controls who remained in HMOs by employer choice. Both groups had low outpatient copayments. High-deductible members had full coverage of mammography and Pap smears, but $500 to $2000 individual deductibles for most other services. HMO members had full coverage of cancer screening and low copayments for other services without any deductible. We stratified analyses by SES.

INTERVENTION

Transition to a HDHP.

MAIN MEASURES

Annual breast and cervical cancer screening rates; rates of annual preventive outpatient visits.

KEY RESULTS

In follow-up years 1 and 2, low SES HDHP members experienced no statistically detectable changes in rates of breast cancer screening (ratio of change, 1.14, 95 % CI, [0.93,1.40] and 1.05, [0.80,1.37], respectively) or preventive visits (difference-in-differences, +1.9 %, [-11.9 %,+17.7 %] and +10.1 %, [-9.4 %,+33.7 %], respectively) relative to HMO counterparts. Similarly, among low SES HDHP members eligible for cervical cancer screening, no significant changes occurred in either screening rates (1.01, [0.86,1.20] and 1.08, [0.86,1.35]) or preventive visits (+0.2 %, [-11.4 %,+13.3 %] and -1.4 %, [-18.1,+18.6]). Patterns were statistically similar for high SES members.

CONCLUSION

During two follow-up years, transition to an HMO-based HDHP with coverage of primary care visits and cancer screening did not lead to differentially lower rates of breast and cervical cancer screening or preventive visits for low SES women. Generalizability is limited to commercially insured women transitioning to HDHPs with low cost-sharing for cancer screening and primary care visits, a common design.

Effect of switching to a high-deductible health plan on use of chronic medications

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether high-deductible health plans (HDHPs) that exempt prescription drugs from full cost sharing preserve medication use for major chronic illness, compared with traditional HMOs with similar drug cost sharing.

DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTING

We examined 2001-2008 pharmacy claims data of 3,348 continuously enrolled adults in a Massachusetts health plan for 9 months before and 24 months after an employer-mandated switch from a traditional HMO plan to a HDHP, compared with 20,534 contemporaneous matched HMO members. Both study groups faced similar three-tiered drug copayments. We calculated daily medication availability for all prescription drugs and four chronic medication classes: hypoglycemics, lipid-lowering agents, antihypertensives, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)/asthma controllers.

STUDY DESIGN

Interrupted time-series with comparison group study design examining monthly level and trend changes in prescription drug utilization.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

The HDHP and control groups had comparable changes in the level and trend of all drugs after the index date; we detected similar patterns in the use of lipid-lowering agents, antihypertensives, and COPD/asthma controllers. Some evidence suggested a small relative decline in hypoglycemic use among diabetic patients in HDHPs.

CONCLUSIONS

Switching to an HDHP that included modest drug copayments did not change medication availability or reduce use of essential medications for three common chronic illnesses.