Soluble interleukin-2 receptor serum levels facilitate prediction of relapses in subgroups of patients with juvenile idiopathic arthritis

OBJECTIVES

JIA is characterised by a chronic disease course. Once patients achieve a state of inactive disease, there are no established biomarkers to predict the further course of inflammation for these patients. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to quantify serum biomarkers during quiescent disease to evaluate their use in identifying JIA patients at risk for future disease flare.

METHODS

Patients with non-systemic JIA reaching inactive disease status were divided into two groups: 92 patients with future active disease after a median period of 6 months (range 3-9) and 80 patients with persistent inactive disease for the following period (median 11 months, range 7-16) according to the juvenile arthritis DAS (JADAS). Clinical parameters and serum levels of various biomarkers were measured in the state of inactive disease using immunoassays in both groups and were analysed for their potential to predict the further course of disease.

RESULTS

Soluble interleukin-2 receptor (sIL-2R) serum levels were significantly higher in patients with future active disease (P = 0.021), which especially applied to patients with RF-negative polyarticular and extended oligoarticular JIA (P < 0.001). Higher sIL-2R serum levels during inactive disease were associated with a greater number of active joints at future active disease.

CONCLUSION

Patients without clinical signs of disease activity already presented with increased sIL-2R serum levels several months before disease relapses, whereas conventional inflammation parameters were not elevated. Determination of sIL-2R serum levels during inactive disease may facilitate identifying patients with subclinical disease activity at risk for future active disease.

Newly Diagnosed Crohn's Disease Patients in India and Israel Display Distinct Presentations and Serological Markers: Insights from Prospective Cohorts

Background: Crohn’s disease (CD) incidence is rising in India. However, features of newly diagnosed patients with CD in this population are largely unknown. The Indo-Israeli IBD GastroEnterology paRtnership (TiiiGER) aimed to investigate differences in presentation among patients with newly diagnosed CD in India and Israel, and to explore phenotype−serotype correlations. Methods: A prospective observational cohort study of consecutive adults (>18 years) conducted in two large referral centers in India and Israel (2014−2018). Clinical data, an antiglycan serological panel, and 20 CD-associated genetic variants were analyzed. Outcomes: complicated phenotype at diagnosis and early complicated course (hospitalizations/surgeries) within 2 years of diagnosis. Results: We included 260 patients (104, Indian (65.4%, male; age, 37.8); 156 Israeli (49.4%, male; 31.8, age)). Median lag time from symptoms onset to diagnosis was 10.5 (IQR 3−38) vs. 3 (IQR 1−8) months in Indian vs. Israeli patients (p < 0.001). Complicated phenotype at diagnosis was observed in 48% of Indian and 30% of Israeli patients (p = 0.003). Complicated phenotype was associated with higher anti-Saccharomyces cerevisiae antibody (ASCA) seropositivity rate among Israeli patients (p < 0.001), but not among Indian patients. Antiglycan serology did not correlate with the tested genetic variants. Early complicated course occurred in 28 (18%) Israeli and 13 (12.5%) Indian patients. The time from diagnosis to complication was comparable (log rank p = 0.152). Antiglycan serology did not correlate with a complicated early course in either cohort. Conclusions: There are significant differences in patients presenting with newly diagnosed CD in India and Israel, including phenotype and distinct biomarkers at diagnosis. These differences suggest different genetic and environmental disease modifiers.

Comparison of the Accuracy of WhipPredict to That of a Modified Version of the Short-Form Örebro Musculoskeletal Pain Screening Questionnaire to Predict Poor Recovery After Whiplash Injury

OBJECTIVE

To compare the accuracy of a whiplash-specific risk screening tool (WhipPredict) with that of the modified generic short-form Örebro Musculoskeletal Pain Screening Questionnaire (SF-ÖMPSQ) for predicting poor recovery in patients following whiplash injury.

STUDY DESIGN

Inception cohort study.

METHODS

Two hundred two participants with acute whiplash completed the WhipPredict and modified SF-ÖMPSQ at baseline. Poor recovery was measured at 6 and 12 months using the Neck Disability Index (greater than 10%), numeric pain-rating scale (greater than 3/10), global perceived recovery (less than +4), and inability to return to preinjury work level. Accuracy statistics were calculated to predict poor recovery.

RESULTS

Seventy-one percent (n = 143) of participants completed the 6-month assessment and 56% (n = 113) completed the 12-month assessment. At baseline, agreement between the WhipPredict and modified SF-ÖMPSQ was fair (prevalence-adjusted and bias-adjusted κ = 0.26; 95% confidence interval: 0.12, 0.39). Depending on the outcome, 20% to 72% of people had not recovered at 6 months and 12% to 71% had not recovered at 12 months. At 6 and 12 months, the WhipPredict tool showed high sensitivity (88%-96%) and low specificity (all outcomes less than 31%) on all 4 separate outcomes. The modified SF-ÖMPSQ showed moderate sensitivity (67%-75%) for the Neck Disability Index, numeric pain-rating scale, and global perceived recovery, high sensitivity for return to work (81%-90%), and moderate specificity (54%-77%) for all 4 outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Both tools showed acceptable accuracy in predicting poor recovery. The WhipPredict tool is recommended to correctly identify patients who will not recover but may falsely classify those who recover well. Using the modified SF-ÖMPSQ will result in fewer patients falsely categorized as being at risk of poor recovery and may result in some people being undertreated. J Orthop Sports Phys Ther 2021;51(5):207-215. Epub 19 Feb 2021. doi:10.2519/jospt.2021.9987.

PsART-ID inception cohort: clinical characteristics, treatment choices and outcomes of patients with psoriatic arthritis

OBJECTIVES

Our aim is to understand clinical characteristics, real-life treatment strategies, outcomes of early PsA patients and determine the differences between the inception and established PsA cohorts.

METHODS

PsArt-ID (Psoriatic Arthritis- International Database) is a multicentre registry. From that registry, patients with a diagnosis of PsA up to 6 months were classified as the inception cohort (n==388). Two periods were identified for the established cohort: Patients with PsA diagnosis within 5-10 years (n = 328), ≥10 years (n = 326). Demographic, clinical characteristics, treatment strategies, outcomes were determined for the inception cohort and compared with the established cohorts.

RESULTS

The mean (s.d.) age of the inception cohort was 44.7 (13.3) and 167/388 (43.0%) of the patients were male. Polyarticular and mono-oligoarticular presentations were comparable in the inception and established cohorts. Axial involvement rate was higher in the cohort of patients with PsA ≥10 years compared with the inception cohort (34.8% vs 27.7%). As well as dactylitis and nail involvement (P = 0.004, P = 0.001 respectively). Both enthesitis, deformity rates were lower in the inception cohort. Overall, 13% of patients in the inception group had a deformity. MTX was the most commonly prescribed treatment for all cohorts with 10.7% of the early PsA patients were given anti-TNF agents after 16 months.

CONCLUSION

The real-life experience in PsA patients showed no significant differences in the disease pattern rates except for the axial involvement. The dactylitis, nail involvement rates had increased significantly after 10 years from the diagnosis and the enthesitis, deformity had an increasing trend over time.

Inception cohort of the Swiss Spinal Cord Injury Cohort Study (SwiSCI): Design, participant characteristics, response rates and non-response

Objectives

To provide a methodological reference paper for the inception cohort of the Swiss Spinal Cord Injury Cohort Study (SwiSCI), by detailing its methodological features and reporting on participant characteristics, response rates and non-response bias.

Design

Prospective cohort study starting in 2013 in all 4 specialized rehabilitation centres in Switzerland.

Subjects

Included are 655 newly diagnosed first rehabilitation patients aged ≥16 years with traumatic or non-traumatic spinal cord injury (TSCI, NTSCI).

Methods

Descriptive statistics were used to depict participant characteristics and to compare characteristics of responders and non-responders. Logistic regressions were conducted to estimate non-response bias.

RESULTS

The sample consisted of 69% males, with mean age 53.5 years, 57.9% TSCI, 60.7% paraplegia and 78.8% incomplete SCI. Males and younger persons more often sustained TSCI and more severe SCI, resulting in longer duration of rehabilitation. Complete lesions were more prevalent in TSCI compared to NTSCI. The response rate was 47.5% and study participation was less likely in females, older persons, persons with lower functional independence and those with NTSCI.

Conclusion

SwiSCI inception cohort data enable the estimation of epidemiological figures of SCI in Switzerland, and prognostic and trajectory modelling of outcomes after SCI to guide policy, service provision and clinical practice.

What Is the Personal Impact of Recurrences of Low Back Pain? Subanalysis of an Inception Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate (1) the impact of low back pain (LBP) over the course of 1 year in people recently recovered from an episode of LBP, (2) whether the impact differs in people who do and do not experience a recurrence, and (3) the impact of LBP based on 3 definitions of a recurrence of LBP.

DESIGN

Cohort study.

METHODS

In 250 individuals recently recovered from LBP, the impact of LBP over the previous 3 months was assessed with the impact score, a multidimensional measure (range, 8-50), at 3, 6, 9, and 12 months. Recurrence of LBP was assessed monthly and defined as a recurrence of an episode of LBP, a recurrence of activity-limiting LBP, or a recurrence of LBP causing patients to seek care.

RESULTS

The median impact over 1 year was 11.5 points (interquartile range, 9.5-14.8). The impact was 15.2 points (95% confidence interval [CI]: 13.9, 16.3) for those who reported any recurrence and 11.1 points (95% CI: 10.6, 11.5) for those who did not. When comparing definitions of recurrence, those who had a recurrence that did not cause moderate activity limitation or result in care seeking had an overall impact of 12.7 points (95% CI: 11.6, 13.8). Participants who had recurrences of activity-limiting LBP but did not seek care, had an overall impact of 15.5 points (95% CI: 13.5, 17.6), and those who had recurrences of LBP for which health care was sought had an overall impact of 16.9 points (95% CI: 15.3, 18.4).

CONCLUSION

The average impact due to recurrence of LBP was low and dependent on the definition of recurrence. J Orthop Sports Phys Ther 2020;50(6):294-300. Epub 16 Apr 2020. doi:10.2519/jospt.2020.9345.

The Quebec Low Back Pain Study: a protocol for an innovative 2-tier provincial cohort

Supplemental Digital Content is Available in the Text.

Introduction:

The neurobiological mechanisms underlying recovery from or persistence of low back pain (LBP) remain misunderstood, limiting progress toward effective management. We have developed an innovative two-tier design to study the transition from acute to chronic LBP. The objective of the first tier is to create a provincial web-based infrastructure to recruit and monitor the trajectory of individuals with acute LBP. The objective of the second tier is to fuel hypothesis-driven satellite data collection centers with specialized expertise to study the role of biomechanical, epigenetic, genetic, neuroanatomical, ontological, physiological, psychological, and socioeconomic factors in LBP chronicity.

Methods:

This article describes the first tier of the protocol: establishment of the Core Dataset and Cohort. Adults with acute LBP will be recruited through networks, media, and health care settings. A web-based interface will be used to collect self-reported variables at baseline and at 3, 6, 12, and 24 months. Acute LBP will be defined according to the Dionne 2008 consensus. Measurements will include the Canadian minimum data set for chronic LBP research, DN4 for neuropathic pain, comorbidities, EQ-5D-5L for quality of life, and linkage with provincial medico-administrative databases. The primary outcome will be the transition to chronic LBP, as defined by Deyo 2014. Secondary outcomes include health care resource utilization, disability, sick leave, mood, and quality of life.

Perspective:

This study brings together diverse research expertise to investigate the transition from acute to chronic LBP, characterize the progression to recovery or chronicity, and identify patterns associated with that progression.

Neutropaenia in early rheumatoid arthritis: frequency, predicting factors, natural history and outcome

Objectives

To determine the frequency, severity and natural history of neutropaenia in early rheumatoid arthritis (RA), explore its associations with clinical features and assess its impact on clinical management.

Methods

The Scottish Early Rheumatoid Arthritis inception cohort prospectively recruited patients with newly diagnosed RA and followed them up every 6 months. Patients with RA who developed at least one episode of neutropaenia (grade 1: <2.0×10^9/L; grade 2: <1.5×10^9/L; grade 3: <1.0×10^9/L; grade 4: <0.5×10^9/L) were compared with those who did not. Comparisons were also made between patients who experienced one or more episodes of neutropaenia and between patients with different neutropaenia grades.

Results

77 neutropaenia episodes were recorded in 58 of 771 (7.5%) patients with RA, who were followed up for a median (range) of 18 (6-48) months. Neutropaenia occurred at a median (range) of 12 (0-120) months after RA diagnosis. The majority had mild neutropaenia (grade 1: n=42; grade 2: n=14; grade 3: n=1; grade 4: n=1). Neutropaenia was transient (single episode) in the majority (44; 75.8%) of cases but led to treatment discontinuation in 14 (24.1%) patients. Patients who developed neutropaenia were more likely to be female (p=0.01) and non-smokers (p=0.007) and had lower baseline neutrophil levels (p<0.0001). Binomial regression analysis confirmed the latter (p<0.0001, B: -0.491) as neutropaenia predictor. The rate of infections did not differ between patients who developed neutropaenia and those who did not (p=0.878).

Conclusion

Neutropaenia was a common finding in this cohort. It was usually mild, transient and not associated with increased infection rates. Neutropaenia occurrence was associated with non-smoking, female gender and lower baseline neutrophil levels.

Tracing studies in cohorts with attrition: Selection models for efficient sampling

Cohort studies of chronic diseases involve recruitment and longitudinal follow-up of affected individuals with a view to studying the effect of risk factors on disease progression and death. When the time to withdrawal from the cohort is conditionally independent of the disease process the primary consequence is a loss of information on the parameters of interest. This loss can sometimes be mitigated through the conduct of tracing studies in which a subsample of those lost to follow up are contacted and some information is obtained on their disease and survival status. We describe the use of selection models to sample individuals for tracing who will yield more efficient estimators than those obtained by simple random sampling. Efficient sampling schemes featuring cost constraints are also developed and shown to perform well. An application to data from the University of Toronto Psoriatic Arthritis Cohort illustrates how to apply the method in a real setting.

Proximal Disease Extension in Patients With Limited Ulcerative Colitis: A Danish Population-based Inception Cohort

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Disease extent in ulcerative colitis [UC] is dynamic and can progress over time. Little is known about risk factors for UC extension in the era of biologics. We investigated the risk of UC extension and subsequent risk of surgery in a Danish population-based cohort.

METHODS

All incident UC cases in a strictly defined Copenhagen area between 2003 and 2004 were followed prospectively through 2011. Disease extension was defined as patients with limited UC [E1 or E2] at diagnosis having progressed from the initial extent by colonoscopy or surgery to E2 or extensive colitis [E3]. Associations between progression or colectomy and multiple covariates were analysed by Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

Of 300 UC patients, 220 [73%] had E1 or E2 at diagnosis. During follow-up, 50 [23%] patients with E1/E2 progressed to E3, and 22 [10%] with E1 progressed to E2. Disease extent at diagnosis was the sole predictor of extension to E3. A total of 18 [8%] patients with E1/E2 at diagnosis had a colectomy. Progression from E1/E2 to E3, female gender and a history of smoking were risk factors for colectomy.

CONCLUSION

After 7 years of follow-up, 33% of patients with limited UC experienced disease extension. Only extent at diagnosis was a clinical predictor for disease extension. The risk of colectomy was increased in former smokers and patients who progressed to extensive colitis. This highlights the need to prevent disease progression in patients with limited UC, and to identify new histological or molecular markers that might help stratify risks for disease progression.

Risk of Recurrence of Low Back Pain: A Systematic Review

Study Design Systematic review. Background While most people with acute low back pain (LBP) recover quickly, recurrences are believed to be common. To our knowledge, no published high-quality systematic review has assessed the risk of recurrent LBP or the factors that would predict LBP recurrence. Objectives The aim of this study was to investigate the risk of, and prognostic factors for, a recurrence of LBP in patients who have recovered from a previous episode of LBP within the last year. Methods Systematic searches were conducted in the MEDLINE, Embase, and CINAHL databases. We included longitudinal studies of adults who had recovered from a previous episode of LBP within 12 months. The primary outcome was a new episode of LBP. Secondary outcomes were other types of recurrence (eg, episodes causing care seeking). Results Eight studies were included in the review: 7 observational studies and 1 randomized trial (2 publications). Six studies reported recurrence proportions for the primary outcome of an episode of LBP. Meta-analysis was not conducted due to the low quality and heterogeneity of studies. Only 1 study was considered an inception cohort study; it reported a 1-year recurrence proportion of 33%. A history of previous episodes of LBP prior to the most recent episode was the only factor that consistently predicted recurrence of LBP. Conclusion The available research does not provide robust estimates of the risk of LBP recurrence and provides little information about factors that predict recurrence in people recently recovered from an episode of LBP. Level of Evidence Prognosis, 1a-. Prospectively registered in PROSPERO on February 9, 2016 (CRD42016030220). J Orthop Sports Phys Ther 2017;47(5):305-313. Epub 29 Mar 2017. doi:10.2519/jospt.2017.7415.

The frequency and outcome of lupus nephritis: results from an international inception cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To determine nephritis outcomes in a prospective multi-ethnic/racial SLE inception cohort.

METHODS

Patients in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics inception cohort (≤15 months of SLE diagnosis) were assessed annually for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), proteinuria and end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Health-related quality of life was measured by the Short Form (36 questions) health survey questionnaire (SF-36) subscales, mental and physical component summary scores.

RESULTS

There were 1827 patients, 89% females, mean (s.d.) age 35.1 (13.3) years. The mean (s.d.) SLE duration at enrolment was 0.5 (0.3) years and follow-up 4.6 (3.4) years. LN occurred in 700 (38.3%) patients: 566/700 (80.9%) at enrolment and 134/700 (19.1%) during follow-up. Patients with nephritis were younger, more frequently men and of African, Asian and Hispanic race/ethnicity. The estimated overall 10-year incidence of ESRD was 4.3% (95% CI: 2.8%, 5.8%), and with nephritis was 10.1% (95% CI: 6.6%, 13.6%). Patients with nephritis had a higher risk of death (HR = 2.98, 95% CI: 1.48, 5.99; P = 0.002) and those with eGFR <30 ml/min at diagnosis had lower SF-36 physical component summary scores (P < 0.01) and lower Physical function, Physical role and Bodily pain scores. Over time, patients with abnormal eGFR and proteinuria had lower SF-36 mental component summary (P ≤ 0.02) scores compared to patients with normal values.

CONCLUSION

LN occurred in 38.3% of SLE patients, frequently as the initial presentation, in a large multi-ethnic inception cohort. Despite current standard of care, nephritis was associated with ESRD and death, and renal insufficiency was linked to lower health-related quality of life. Further advances are required for the optimal treatment of LN.

Total cost and cost predictors in systemic lupus erythematosus - 8-years follow-up of a Swedish inception cohort

OBJECTIVE

To study the annual direct and indirect costs in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and how age, disease manifestations, disease activity, and organ damage influence total costs and predicted costs for SLE.

METHODS

Clinical data on all patients with a diagnosis of SLE living in a defined area in southern Sweden during eight years were linked to health authority registries and the social insurance system which contain data on cost. Cost data on four matched population controls for each patient were also extracted. The controls were matched for age, sex, and area of residence.

RESULTS

Data from 127 patients with SLE and 508 population controls were extracted. The mean annual total cost for SLE patients was SEK 180,520 ($30,093); the highest costs were found in the subgroup with nephritis SEK 229,423 ($38,246). The total costs for the patient group were significantly higher (p < 0.05) compared to the population controls of SEK 59,985 ($10,000). Of the total costs, 72% were due to indirect costs, 3% to SLE-specific pharmaceuticals, and the remaining 25% were in- and outpatient related costs. During the study period, inpatient days decreased by 60%, while outpatient contacts increased by 25%. Age (inverse relation), increasing disease activity, and acquired organ damage were significant predictors of total costs (all p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

The total annual costs for unselected SLE patients were found to be three times those for matched population controls. Important predictors of total costs were found.

Low back pain risk factors associated with persistence, recurrence and delayed presentation

BACKGROUND

There is little knowledge in the literature on the role of time-related variables for the prognosis of acute and subacute low back pain (LBP).

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to estimate the relationship between time-related LBP characteristics and prognostic factors for acute/subacute LBP.

METHODS

We performed a prospective inception cohort study of 315 patients attending a health practitioner for acute/subacute LBP or recurrent LBP. One-tailed correlations were conducted between patient characteristics and time-related variables.

RESULTS

The pattern of correlation between risk factors for and resources against persistent LBP differed between three time-related variables. 'Subacute LBP' and 'delayed presentation' were positively associated with psychological factors. Both indicators were negatively correlated with resources against development of persistent LBP. Moreover, 'delayed presentation' was related positively with occupational stressors. In contrast, 'recurrent LBP' was only related to more impaired health-related factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with current LBP waiting longer until seeking help in primary care have a more disadvantageous profile of occupational and psychological risk factors and lower resource levels. A similar but less pronounced pattern occurred in those with subacute LBP compared to those with acute LBP. Consideration of time characteristics of LBP may help to better understand LBP.

Inception cohort study of workers exposed to toluene diisocyanate at a polyurethane foam factory: initial one-year follow-up

BACKGROUND

Isocyanates are one of the most commonly reported causes of occupational asthma; however, the risks of developing isocyanate asthma in modern production facilities remain poorly defined. We evaluated TDI exposure and respiratory health among an inception cohort of workers during their first year of employment at a new polyurethane foam production factory.

METHODS

Forty-nine newly hired workers were evaluated pre-employment, 6-months, and 12-months post-employment through questionnaire, spirometry, and TDI-specific serology. Airborne TDI levels were monitored by fixed-point air sampling and limited personal sampling. Qualitative surface SWYPE™ tests were performed to evaluate potential sources of skin exposure.

RESULTS

Airborne TDI levels overall were low; over 90% of fixed-point air measurements were below the limit of detection (0.1 ppb). Over the first year of employment, 12 of the 49 original workers (24.5%) were lost to follow-up, no additional workers were enrolled, and seven of the 49 original workers (14.2%) developed either new asthma symptoms (N = 3), TDI-specific IgG (N = 1), new airflow obstruction (N = 1) and/or a decline in FEV1  ≥ 15% (N = 3), findings that could indicate TDI-related health effects. The prevalence of current asthma symptoms was significantly higher in the workers lost to follow-up compared to those who completed the 12-month follow-up (25% vs. 2.7%; P = 0.04).

CONCLUSIONS

The findings suggest possible early TDI-related health effects in a modern polyurethane production plant. These findings also highlight the need for further longitudinal evaluation of these workers and the challenges of studying workers at risk for isocyanate asthma.

Treatment changes and improved outcomes in RA: an overview of a large inception cohort from 1989 to 2009

OBJECTIVE

The introduction of effective treatment strategies in the past two decades has changed the management of RA dramatically. The objective was to analyse the changes in disease activity, function, joint damage and incidence of orthopaedic surgery over a period of 20 years (1989-2009) for patients with RA.

METHODS

Data acquired from 1989 to 2008 inclusive from the Nijmegen RA inception cohort were studied. By repeated measures analysis the course of the population mean disease activity score (DAS28) and the Health Assessment Questionnaire-Disability Index (HAQ-DI) corrected for age, gender, RF and disease duration was determined. Orthopaedic interventions were analysed as incidence rates with a Poisson distribution. We calculated the prevalence of the various therapies that patients were receiving.

RESULTS

By 2009, 992 patients with RA had been included and 273 had been excluded. From 1989 onwards, the proportion of patients using MTX increased from 5% (8 of 164) to 62% (486 of 780), and biologic response modifiers from 0% to 22% (168 of 780) in 2008. The average MTX dosage increased to 16.1 ± 5.5 mg/week in 2008. The mean DAS28 (3.1) and HAQ-DI (0.47) were least (P < 0.008) in 2008 compared with previous years. There was a significant trend towards lower incidence rates of orthopaedic intervention in the period 2006-2008 than in almost all previous years.

CONCLUSION

Treatment strategy changed in a large inception cohort of patients with RA which coincided with decreased disease activity, increased functional ability and fewer orthopaedic interventions since the early 1990s.