Distinguishing cophylogenetic signal from phylogenetic congruence clarifies the interplay between evolutionary history and species interactions

Interspecific interactions, including host-symbiont associations, can profoundly affect the evolution of the interacting species. Given the phylogenies of host and symbiont clades and knowledge of which host species interact with which symbiont, two questions are often asked: "Do closely related hosts interact with closely related symbionts?" and "Do host and symbiont phylogenies mirror one another?". These questions are intertwined and can even collapse under specific situations, such that they are often confused one with the other. However, in most situations, a positive answer to the first question, hereafter referred to as "cophylogenetic signal", does not imply a close match between the host and symbiont phylogenies. It suggests only that past evolutionary history has contributed to shaping present-day interactions, which can arise, for example, through present-day trait matching, or from a single ancient vicariance event that increases the probability that closely related species overlap geographically. A positive answer to the second, referred to as "phylogenetic congruence", is more restrictive as it suggests a close match between the two phylogenies, which may happen, for example, if symbiont diversification tracks host diversification or if the diversifications of the two clades were subject to the same succession of vicariance events. Here we apply a set of methods (ParaFit, PACo, and eMPRess), which significance is often interpreted as evidence for phylogenetic congruence, to simulations under three biologically realistic scenarios of trait matching, a single ancient vicariance event, and phylogenetic tracking with frequent cospeciation events. The latter is the only scenario that generates phylogenetic congruence, whereas the first two generate a cophylogenetic signal in the absence of phylogenetic congruence. We find that tests of global-fit methods (ParaFit and PACo) are significant under the three scenarios, whereas tests of event-based methods (eMPRess) are only significant under the scenario of phylogenetic tracking. Therefore, significant results from global-fit methods should be interpreted in terms of cophylogenetic signal and not phylogenetic congruence; such significant results can arise under scenarios when hosts and symbionts had independent evolutionary histories. Conversely, significant results from event-based methods suggest a strong form of dependency between hosts and symbionts evolutionary histories. Clarifying the patterns detected by different cophylogenetic methods is key to understanding how interspecific interactions shape and are shaped by evolution.

Michener's group-size paradox in cooperatively breeding birds

According to Michener's paradox, most altruistic groups in nature should be small and large groups should not exist. This is because per capita productivity is thought to decrease as groups get larger, meaning that the share of indirect fitness available to each group member declines, which favours dispersal. The empirical evidence for a decrease in per capita productivity is contradictory, however, and limited to the social Hymenoptera. I report that per capita reproductive success decreased with increasing group size across 26 cooperatively breeding bird species. Small groups comprising two or three individuals were the most common (79% of 16,101 groups), and these had the highest per capita reproductive success. This close fit between per capita reproductive success and the distribution of group sizes in nature suggests that it may indeed be difficult for large groups to evolve through indirect fitness benefits alone.

Inferring Viral Transmission Time from Phylogenies for Known Transmission Pairs

When the time of an HIV transmission event is unknown, methods to identify it from virus genetic data can reveal the circumstances that enable transmission. We developed a single-parameter Markov model to infer transmission time from an HIV phylogeny constructed of multiple virus sequences from people in a transmission pair. Our method finds the statistical support for transmission occurring in different possible time slices. We compared our time-slice model results to previously described methods: a tree-based logical transmission interval, a simple parsimony-like rules-based method, and a more complex coalescent model. Across simulations with multiple transmitted lineages, different transmission times relative to the source's infection, and different sampling times relative to transmission, we found that overall our time-slice model provided accurate and narrower estimates of the time of transmission. We also identified situations when transmission time or direction was difficult to estimate by any method, particularly when transmission occurred long after the source was infected and when sampling occurred long after transmission. Applying our model to real HIV transmission pairs showed some agreement with facts known from the case investigations. We also found, however, that uncertainty on the inferred transmission time was driven more by uncertainty from time calibration of the phylogeny than from the model inference itself. Encouragingly, comparable performance of the Markov time-slice model and the coalescent model-which make use of different information within a tree-suggests that a new method remains to be described that will make full use of the topology and node times for improved transmission time inference.

Recoding amino acids to a reduced alphabet may increase or decrease phylogenetic accuracy

Common molecular phylogenetic characteristics such as long branches and compositional heterogeneity can be problematic for phylogenetic reconstruction when using amino acid data. Recoding alignments to reduced alphabets before phylogenetic analysis has often been used both to explore and potentially decrease the effect of such problems. We tested the effectiveness of this strategy on topological accuracy using simulated data on four-taxon trees. We simulated alignments in phylogenetically challenging ways to test the phylogenetic accuracy of analyses using various recoding strategies together with commonly-used homogeneous models. We tested three recoding methods based on amino acid exchangeability, and another recoding method based on lowering the compositional heterogeneity among alignment sequences as measured by the Chi-squared statistic. Our simulation results show that on trees with long branches where sequences approach saturation, accuracy was not greatly affected by exchangeability-based recodings, but Chi-squared-based recoding decreased accuracy. We then simulated sequences with different kinds of compositional heterogeneity over the tree. Recoding often increased accuracy on such alignments. Exchangeability-based recoding was rarely worse than not recoding, and often considerably better. Recoding based on lowering the Chi-squared value improved accuracy in some cases but not in others, suggesting that low compositional heterogeneity by itself is not sufficient to increase accuracy in the analysis of these alignments. We also simulated alignments using site-specific amino acid profiles, making sequences that had compositional heterogeneity over alignment sites. Exchangeability-based recoding coupled with site-homogeneous models had poor accuracy for these datasets but Chi-squared-based recoding on these alignments increased accuracy. We then simulated datasets that were compositionally both site- and tree-heterogeneous, like many real datasets. The effect on accuracy of recoding such doubly problematic datasets varied widely, depending on the type of compositional tree-heterogeneity and on the recoding scheme. Interestingly, analysis of unrecoded compositionally heterogeneous alignments with the NDCH or CAT models was generally more accurate than homogeneous analysis, whether recoded or not. Overall, our results suggest that making trees for recoded amino acid datasets can be useful, but they need to be interpreted cautiously as part of a more comprehensive analysis. The use of better fitting models like NDCH and CAT, which directly account for the patterns in the data, may offer a more promising long-term solution for analysing empirical data.

Identifying SARS-CoV-2 regional introductions and transmission clusters in real time

The unprecedented severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) global sequencing effort has suffered from an analytical bottleneck. Many existing methods for phylogenetic analysis are designed for sparse, static datasets and are too computationally expensive to apply to densely sampled, rapidly expanding datasets when results are needed immediately to inform public health action. For example, public health is often concerned with identifying clusters of closely related samples, but the sheer scale of the data prevents manual inspection and the current computational models are often too expensive in time and resources. Even when results are available, intuitive data exploration tools are of critical importance to effective public health interpretation and action. To help address this need, we present a phylogenetic heuristic that quickly and efficiently identifies newly introduced strains in a region, resulting in clusters of infected individuals, and their putative geographic origins. We show that this approach performs well on simulated data and yields results largely congruent with more sophisticated Bayesian phylogeographic modeling approaches. We also introduce Cluster-Tracker (https://clustertracker.gi.ucsc.edu/), a novel interactive web-based tool to facilitate effective and intuitive SARS-CoV-2 geographic data exploration and visualization across the USA. Cluster-Tracker is updated daily and automatically identifies and highlights groups of closely related SARS-CoV-2 infections resulting from the transmission of the virus between two geographic areas by travelers, streamlining public health tracking of local viral diversity and emerging infection clusters. The site is open-source and designed to be easily configured to analyze any chosen region, making it a useful resource globally. The combination of these open-source tools will empower detailed investigations of the geographic origins and spread of SARS-CoV-2 and other densely sampled pathogens.

Current Methods for Recombination Detection in Bacteria

The role of genetic exchanges, i.e., homologous recombination (HR) and horizontal gene transfer (HGT), in bacteria cannot be overestimated for it is a pivotal mechanism leading to their evolution and adaptation, thus, tracking the signs of recombination and HGT events is importance both for fundamental and applied science. To date, dozens of bioinformatics tools for revealing recombination signals are available, however, their pros and cons as well as the spectra of solvable tasks have not yet been systematically reviewed. Moreover, there are two major groups of software. One aims to infer evidence of HR, while the other only deals with horizontal gene transfer (HGT). However, despite seemingly different goals, all the methods use similar algorithmic approaches, and the processes are interconnected in terms of genomic evolution influencing each other. In this review, we propose a classification of novel instruments for both HR and HGT detection based on the genomic consequences of recombination. In this context, we summarize available methodologies paying particular attention to the type of traceable events for which a certain program has been designed.

The potential to infer the historical pattern of cultural macroevolution

Phylogenetic analyses increasingly take centre-stage in our understanding of the processes shaping patterns of cultural diversity and cultural evolution over time. Just as biologists explain the origins and maintenance of trait differences among organisms using phylogenetic methods, so anthropologists studying cultural macroevolutionary processes use phylogenetic methods to uncover the history of human populations and the dynamics of culturally transmitted traits. In this paper, we revisit concerns with the validity of these methods. Specifically, we use simulations to reveal how properties of the sample (size, missing data), properties of the tree (shape) and properties of the traits (rate of change, number of variants, transmission mode) might influence the inferences that can be drawn about trait distributions across a given phylogeny and the power to discern alternative histories. Our approach shows that in two example datasets specific combinations of properties of the sample, of the tree and of the trait can lead to potentially high rates of Type I and Type II errors. We offer this simulation tool to help assess the potential impact of this list of persistent perils in future cultural macroevolutionary work. This article is part of the theme issue 'Foundations of cultural evolution'.

The phylogenetic signal in tooth wear: What does it mean?

A new study by Fraser et al (2018) urges the use of phylogenetic comparative methods, whenever possible, in analyses of mammalian tooth wear. We are concerned about this for two reasons. First, this recommendation may mislead the research community into thinking that phylogenetic signal is an artifact of some sort rather than a fundamental outcome of the evolutionary process. Secondly, this recommendation may set a precedent for editors and reviewers to enforce phylogenetic adjustment where it may unnecessarily weaken or even directionally alter the results, shifting the emphasis of analysis from common patterns manifested by large clades to rare cases.

Evaluation of phylogenetic reconstruction methods using bacterial whole genomes: a simulation based study

Background: Phylogenetic reconstruction is a necessary first step in many analyses which use whole genome sequence data from bacterial populations. There are many available methods to infer phylogenies, and these have various advantages and disadvantages, but few unbiased comparisons of the range of approaches have been made.

Methods: We simulated data from a defined 'true tree' using a realistic evolutionary model. We  built phylogenies from this data using a range of methods, and compared reconstructed trees to the true tree using two measures, noting the computational time needed for different phylogenetic reconstructions. We also used real data from Streptococcus pneumoniae alignments to compare individual core gene trees to a core genome tree.

Results: We found that, as expected, maximum likelihood trees from good quality alignments were the most accurate, but also the most computationally intensive. Using less accurate phylogenetic reconstruction methods, we were able to obtain results of comparable accuracy; we found that approximate results can rapidly be obtained using genetic distance based methods. In real data we found that highly conserved core genes, such as those involved in translation, gave an inaccurate tree topology, whereas genes involved in recombination events gave inaccurate branch lengths. We also show a tree-of-trees, relating the results of different phylogenetic reconstructions to each other.

Conclusions: We recommend three approaches, depending on requirements for accuracy and computational time. For the most accurate tree, use of either RAxML or IQ-TREE with an alignment of variable sites produced by mapping to a reference genome is best. Quicker approaches that do not perform full maximum likelihood optimisation may be useful for many analyses requiring a phylogeny, as generating a high quality input alignment is likely to be the major limiting factor of accurate tree topology.  We have publicly released our simulated data and code to enable further comparisons.

Constructing a broadly inclusive seed plant phylogeny

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

Large phylogenies can help shed light on macroevolutionary patterns that inform our understanding of fundamental processes that shape the tree of life. These phylogenies also serve as tools that facilitate other systematic, evolutionary, and ecological analyses. Here we combine genetic data from public repositories (GenBank) with phylogenetic data (Open Tree of Life project) to construct a dated phylogeny for seed plants.

METHODS

We conducted a hierarchical clustering analysis of publicly available molecular data for major clades within the Spermatophyta. We constructed phylogenies of major clades, estimated divergence times, and incorporated data from the Open Tree of Life project, resulting in a seed plant phylogeny. We estimated diversification rates, excluding those taxa without molecular data. We also summarized topological uncertainty and data overlap for each major clade.

KEY RESULTS

The trees constructed for Spermatophyta consisted of 79,881 and 353,185 terminal taxa; the latter included the Open Tree of Life taxa for which we could not include molecular data from GenBank. The diversification analyses demonstrated nested patterns of rate shifts throughout the phylogeny. Data overlap and inference uncertainty show significant variation throughout and demonstrate the continued need for data collection across seed plants.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates a means for combining available resources to construct a dated phylogeny for plants. However, this approach is an early step and more developments are needed to add data, better incorporating underlying uncertainty, and improve resolution. The methods discussed here can also be applied to other major clades in the tree of life.

StarBEAST2 Brings Faster Species Tree Inference and Accurate Estimates of Substitution Rates

Fully Bayesian multispecies coalescent (MSC) methods like *BEAST estimate species trees from multiple sequence alignments. Today thousands of genes can be sequenced for a given study, but using that many genes with *BEAST is intractably slow. An alternative is to use heuristic methods which compromise accuracy or completeness in return for speed. A common heuristic is concatenation, which assumes that the evolutionary history of each gene tree is identical to the species tree. This is an inconsistent estimator of species tree topology, a worse estimator of divergence times, and induces spurious substitution rate variation when incomplete lineage sorting is present. Another class of heuristics directly motivated by the MSC avoids many of the pitfalls of concatenation but cannot be used to estimate divergence times. To enable fuller use of available data and more accurate inference of species tree topologies, divergence times, and substitution rates, we have developed a new version of *BEAST called StarBEAST2. To improve convergence rates we add analytical integration of population sizes, novel MCMC operators and other optimizations. Computational performance improved by 13.5× and 13.8× respectively when analyzing two empirical data sets, and an average of 33.1× across 30 simulated data sets. To enable accurate estimates of per-species substitution rates, we introduce species tree relaxed clocks, and show that StarBEAST2 is a more powerful and robust estimator of rate variation than concatenation. StarBEAST2 is available through the BEAUTi package manager in BEAST 2.4 and above.

Ancestor-descendant relationships in evolution: origin of the extant pygmy right whale, Caperea marginata

Ancestor-descendant relationships (ADRs), involving descent with modification, are the fundamental concept in evolution, but are usually difficult to recognize. We examined the cladistic relationship between the only reported fossil pygmy right whale, †Miocaperea pulchra, and its sole living relative, the enigmatic pygmy right whale Caperea marginata, the latter represented by both adult and juvenile specimens. †Miocaperea is phylogenetically bracketed between juvenile and adult Caperea marginata in morphologically based analyses, thus suggesting a possible ADR-the first so far identified within baleen whales (Cetacea: Mysticeti). The †Miocaperea-Caperea lineage may show long-term morphological stasis and, in turn, punctuated equilibrium.

Support for linguistic macrofamilies from weighted sequence alignment

Computational phylogenetics is in the process of revolutionizing historical linguistics. Recent applications have shed new light on controversial issues, such as the location and time depth of language families and the dynamics of their spread. So far, these approaches have been limited to single-language families because they rely on a large body of expert cognacy judgments or grammatical classifications, which is currently unavailable for most language families. The present study pursues a different approach. Starting from raw phonetic transcription of core vocabulary items from very diverse languages, it applies weighted string alignment to track both phonetic and lexical change. Applied to a collection of ∼1,000 Eurasian languages and dialects, this method, combined with phylogenetic inference, leads to a classification in excellent agreement with established findings of historical linguistics. Furthermore, it provides strong statistical support for several putative macrofamilies contested in current historical linguistics. In particular, there is a solid signal for the Nostratic/Eurasiatic macrofamily.

Quantifying MCMC exploration of phylogenetic tree space

In order to gain an understanding of the effectiveness of phylogenetic Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), it is important to understand how quickly the empirical distribution of the MCMC converges to the posterior distribution. In this article, we investigate this problem on phylogenetic tree topologies with a metric that is especially well suited to the task: the subtree prune-and-regraft (SPR) metric. This metric directly corresponds to the minimum number of MCMC rearrangements required to move between trees in common phylogenetic MCMC implementations. We develop a novel graph-based approach to analyze tree posteriors and find that the SPR metric is much more informative than simpler metrics that are unrelated to MCMC moves. In doing so, we show conclusively that topological peaks do occur in Bayesian phylogenetic posteriors from real data sets as sampled with standard MCMC approaches, investigate the efficiency of Metropolis-coupled MCMC (MCMCMC) in traversing the valleys between peaks, and show that conditional clade distribution (CCD) can have systematic problems when there are multiple peaks.

Phylogenetics and the human microbiome

The human microbiome is the ensemble of genes in the microbes that live inside and on the surface of humans. Because microbial sequencing information is now much easier to come by than phenotypic information, there has been an explosion of sequencing and genetic analysis of microbiome samples. Much of the analytical work for these sequences involves phylogenetics, at least indirectly, but methodology has developed in a somewhat different direction than for other applications of phylogenetics. In this article, I review the field and its methods from the perspective of a phylogeneticist, as well as describing current challenges for phylogenetics coming from this type of work.

Barcoding Neotropical birds: assessing the impact of nonmonophyly in a highly diverse group

In this study, we verified the power of DNA barcodes to discriminate Neotropical birds using Bayesian tree reconstructions of a total of 7404 COI sequences from 1521 species, including 55 Brazilian species with no previous barcode data. We found that 10.4% of species were nonmonophyletic, most likely due to inaccurate taxonomy, incomplete lineage sorting or hybridization. At least 0.5% of the sequences (2.5% of the sampled species) retrieved from GenBank were associated with database errors (poor-quality sequences, NuMTs, misidentification or unnoticed hybridization). Paraphyletic species (5.8% of the total) can be related to rapid speciation events leading to nonreciprocal monophyly between recently diverged sister species, or to absence of synapomorphies in the small COI region analysed. We also performed two series of genetic distance calculations under the K2P model for intraspecific and interspecific comparisons: the first included all COI sequences, and the second included only monophyletic taxa observed in the Bayesian trees. As expected, the mean and median pairwise distances were smaller for intraspecific than for interspecific comparisons. However, there was no precise 'barcode gap', which was shown to be larger in the monophyletic taxon data set than for the data from all species, as expected. Our results indicated that although database errors may explain some of the difficulties in the species discrimination of Neotropical birds, distance-based barcode assignment may also be compromised because of the high diversity of bird species and more complex speciation events in the Neotropics.

Dioecy is associated with higher diversification rates in flowering plants

In angiosperms, dioecious clades tend to have fewer species than their nondioecious sister clades. This departure from the expected equal species richness in the standard sister clade test has been interpreted as implying that dioecious clades diversify less and has initiated a series of studies suggesting that dioecy might be an 'evolutionary dead end'. However, two of us recently showed that the 'equal species richness' null hypothesis is not valid in the case of derived char acters, such as dioecy, and proposed a new test for sister clade comparisons; preliminary results, using a data set available in the litterature, indicated that dioecious clades migth diversify more than expected. However, it is crucial for this new test to distinguish between ancestral and derived cases of dioecy, a criterion that was not taken into account in the available data set. Here, we present a new data set that was obtained by searching the phylogenetic literature on more than 600 completely dioecious angiosperm genera and identifying 115 sister clade pairs for which dioecy is likely to be derived (including > 50% of the dioecious species). Applying the new sister clade test to this new dataset, we confirm the preliminary result that dioecy is associated with an increased diversification rate, a result that does not support the idea that dioecy is an evolutionary dead end in angiosperms. The traits usually associated with dioecy, that is, an arborescent growth form, abiotic pollination, fleshy fruits or a tropical distribution, do not influence the diversification rate. Rather than a low diversification rate, the observed species richness patterns of dioecious clades seem to be better explained by a low transition rate to dioecy and frequent losses.

Heterostyly accelerates diversification via reduced extinction in primroses

The exceptional species diversity of flowering plants, exceeding that of their sister group more than 250-fold, is especially evident in floral innovations, interactions with pollinators and sexual systems. Multiple theories, emphasizing flower-pollinator interactions, genetic effects of mating systems or high evolvability, predict that floral evolution profoundly affects angiosperm diversification. However, consequences for speciation and extinction dynamics remain poorly understood. Here, we investigate trajectories of species diversification focusing on heterostyly, a remarkable floral syndrome where outcrossing is enforced via cross-compatible floral morphs differing in placement of their respective sexual organs. Heterostyly evolved at least 20 times independently in angiosperms. Using Darwin's model for heterostyly, the primrose family, we show that heterostyly accelerates species diversification via decreasing extinction rates rather than increasing speciation rates, probably owing to avoidance of the negative genetic effects of selfing. However, impact of heterostyly appears to differ over short and long evolutionary time-scales: the accelerating effect of heterostyly on lineage diversification is manifest only over long evolutionary time-scales, whereas recent losses of heterostyly may prompt ephemeral bursts of speciation. Our results suggest that temporal or clade-specific conditions may ultimately determine the net effects of specific traits on patterns of species diversification.

An improved phylogeny of the Andean tit-tyrants (Aves, Tyrannidae): more characters trump sophisticated analyses

The phylogeny of the flycatcher genus Anairetes was previously inferred using short fragments of mitochondrial DNA and parsimony and distance-based methods. The resulting topology spurred taxonomic revision and influenced understanding of Andean biogeography. More than a decade later, we revisit the phylogeny of Anairetes tit-tyrants using more mtDNA characters, seven unlinked loci (three mitochondrial genes, six nuclear loci), more closely related outgroup taxa, partitioned Bayesian analyses, and two coalescent species-tree approaches (Bayesian estimation of species trees, BEST; Bayesian evolutionary analysis by sampling trees, (*)BEAST). Of these improvements in data and analyses, the fourfold increase in mtDNA characters was both necessary and sufficient to incur a major shift in the topology and near-complete resolution. The species-tree analyses, while theoretically preferable to concatenation or single gene approaches, yielded topologies that were compatible with mtDNA but with weaker statistical resolution at nodes. The previous results that had led to taxonomic and biogeographic reappraisal were refuted, and the current results support the resurrection of the genus Uromyias as the sister clade to Anairetes. The sister relationship between these two genera corresponds to an ecological dichotomy between a depauperate humid cloud forest clade and a diverse dry-tolerant clade that has diversified along the latitudinal axis of the Andes. The species-tree results and the concatenation results each reaffirm the primacy of mtDNA to provide phylogenetic signal for avian phylogenies at the species and subspecies level. This is due in part to the abundance of informative characters in mtDNA, and in part to its lower effective population size that causes it to more faithfully track the species tree.

The effect of branch lengths on phylogeny: an empirical study using highly conserved orthologs from mammalian genomes

Phylogenetic analyses were applied to 269 families of putative orthologs represented by a single member in the genomes of human, mouse, dog, and chicken. Five methods were used: maximum parsimony (NP), neighbor-joining (NJ) with Poisson and Gamma distances; and maximum likelihood (ML) with JTT and JTT+gamma models. When applied to the concatenated sequence of all families, all methods strongly supported a tree in which mouse branched before human and dog. In analyses of individual families, the same topology was supported more than any other. Although there was evidence of an increased rate of amino acid replacement in the mouse lineage in comparison to the other two mammals, there was no evidence that support for the mouse's basal position was due to long-branch attraction; rather, this topology was seen in the families with the lowest rate variation among the three mammalian branches. In families with highly divergent mouse sequences, ML with both JTT and JTT+gamma and NJ with the gamma distance tended to support a topology in which the dog, rather than the mouse, branched first. Thus, in these data, a tendency of long and short branches to cluster together ("opposite-branch attraction") seemed to be more of a problem than long-branch attraction.