Unexpected decadal density-dependent shifts in California sea lion size, morphology, and foraging niche

Many marine mammal populations are recovering after long eras of exploitation.^1,2 To what degree density-dependent body size declines in recovering species reflect a general response to increased resource competition is unknown. We examined skull size (as a proxy for body size), skull morphology, and foraging dynamics of the top marine predator, the California sea lion (Zalophus californianus), which have been steadily increasing over the last few decades and have approached or reached their carrying capacity in southern California.³ We show that, contrary to predictions, male California sea lions increased rather than decreased their average body size over a 46-year (1962-2008) recovery period. Larger males had proportionally longer oral cavities and more powerful bite strength, and their foraging niche expanded. Females between 1983 and 2007 maintained stable skull dimensions, but their isotopic niche was broader than contemporary males. Increased male body size is compatible with an intensification of density-dependent sexual selection for larger and more competitive individuals concurrent with an expanding foraging niche. High foraging variability among females would explain their body size stability during decades of population recovery. We demonstrate that body size reduction is not the universal response to population recovery in marine mammals and show that selective ecological dynamics could contribute to protecting populations against the increased density-dependent intraspecific competition. However, prey shifts associated with climate change will likely prevent California sea lions (and other marine mammals) from attaining these ecological dynamics, augmenting their vulnerability to resource competition and diminishing their capacity to overcome it.

Conservation successes and challenges for wide-ranging sharks and rays

Overfishing is the most significant threat facing sharks and rays. Given the growth in consumption of seafood, combined with the compounding effects of habitat loss, climate change, and pollution, there is a need to identify recovery paths, particularly in poorly managed and poorly monitored fisheries. Here, we document conservation through fisheries management success for 11 coastal sharks in US waters by comparing population trends through a Bayesian state-space model before and after the implementation of the 1993 Fisheries Management Plan for Sharks. We took advantage of the spatial and temporal gradients in fishing exposure and fisheries management in the Western Atlantic to analyze the effect on the Red List status of all 26 wide-ranging coastal sharks and rays. We show that extinction risk was greater where fishing pressure was higher, but this was offset by the strength of management engagement (indicated by strength of National and Regional Plan of Action for sharks and rays). The regional Red List Index (which tracks changes in extinction risk through time) declined in all regions until the 1980s but then improved in the North and Central Atlantic such that the average extinction risk is currently half that in the Southwest. Many sharks and rays are wide ranging, and successful fisheries management in one country can be undone by poorly regulated or unregulated fishing elsewhere. Our study underscores that well-enforced, science-based management of carefully monitored fisheries can achieve conservation success, even for slow-growing species.

Demographic responses of nearly extirpated endangered mountain caribou to recovery actions in Central British Columbia

Recovering endangered species is a difficult and often controversial task that challenges status quo land uses. Southern Mountain caribou are a threatened ecotype of caribou that historically ranged in southwestern Canada and northwestern USA and epitomize the tension between resource extraction, biodiversity conservation, and Indigenous Peoples' treaty rights. Human-induced habitat alteration is considered the ultimate cause of caribou population declines, whereby an increased abundance of primary prey-such as moose and deer-elevates predator populations and creates unsustainable caribou mortality. Here we focus on the Klinse-Za and Quintette subpopulations, part of the endangered Central Group of Southern Mountain caribou in British Columbia. These subpopulations were trending toward immediate extirpation until a collaborative group initiated recovery by implementing two short-term recovery actions. We test the effectiveness of these recovery actions-maternity penning of adult females and their calves, and the reduction of a primary predator, wolves-in increasing vital rates and population growth. Klinse-Za received both recovery actions, whereas Quintette only received wolf reductions, providing an opportunity to test efficacy between recovery actions. Between 1995 and 2021, we followed 162 collared female caribou for 414 animal-years to estimate survival and used aerial counts to estimate population abundance and calf recruitment. We combined these data in an integrated population model to estimate female population growth, total population abundance, and recovery action effectiveness. Results suggest that the subpopulations were declining rapidly (λ = 0.90-0.93) before interventions and would have been functionally extirpated (<10 animals) within 10-15 years. Wolf reduction increased population growth rates by ~0.12 for each subpopulation. Wolf reduction halted the decline of Quintette caribou and allowed them to increase (λ = 1.05), but alone would have only stabilized the Klinse-Za (λ = 1.02). However, maternity penning in the Klinse-Za increased population growth by a further ~0.06, which when combined with wolf reductions, allowed populations to grow (λ = 1.08). Taken together, the recovery actions in these subpopulations increased adult female survival, calf recruitment, and overall population growth, more than doubling abundance. Our results suggest that maternity penning and wolf reductions can be effective at increasing caribou numbers in the short term, while long-term commitments to habitat protection and restoration are made.

Changes in mean body size in an expanding population of a threatened species

With some taxa, a reduction in the mean size of individuals may reflect over-harvesting and/or trophy hunting. However, we show that in sea turtles, a reduction in the mean size of breeding individuals may be part of the good news story of an expanding population. We describe a 70-fold increase in annual nest numbers on the island of Sal (Cape Verde, North Atlantic) between 2008 and 2020 (from 506 to 35 507 nests), making this now one of the largest loggerhead (Caretta caretta) nesting aggregations in the world. We use 20 128 measurements of the size of nesting turtles to show that their mean annual size has decreased by about 2.4 cm, from 83.2 to 80.8 cm. This decrease in the mean size of nesting turtles was not caused by the removal of larger turtles, for example by selective harvesting. Rather we develop a theoretical model to show than this decrease in mean size can be explained by an influx of first-time nesters, combined with a decrease in the size of those first-time nesters over time. A reduction in mean size of nesting turtles has been reported across the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans, and may be a common feature of population recoveries in sea turtles.

Limitations to coral recovery along an environmental stress gradient

Positive feedbacks driving habitat-forming species recovery and population growth are often lost as ecosystems degrade. For such systems, identifying mechanisms that limit the re-establishment of critical positive feedbacks is key to facilitating recovery. Theory predicts the primary drivers limiting system recovery shift from biological to physical as abiotic stress increases, but recent work has demonstrated that this seldom happens. We combined field and laboratory experiments to identify variation in limitations to coral recovery along an environmental stress gradient at Ningaloo Reef and Exmouth Gulf in northwest Australia. Many reefs in the region are coral depauperate due to recent cyclones and thermal stress. In general, recovery trajectories are prolonged due to limited coral recruitment. Consistent with theory, clearer water reefs under low thermal stress appear limited by biological interactions: competition with turf algae caused high mortality of newly settled corals and upright macroalgal stands drove mortality in transplanted juvenile corals. Laboratory experiments showed a positive relationship between crustose coralline algae cover and coral settlement, but only in the absence of sedimentation. Contrary to expectation, coral recovery does not appear limited by the survival or growth of recruits on turbid reefs under higher thermal stress, but to exceptionally low larval supply. Laboratory experiments showed that larval survival and settlement are unaffected by seawater quality across the study region. Rather, connectivity models predicted that many of the more turbid reefs in the Gulf are predominantly self seeded, receiving limited supply under degraded reef states. Overall, we find that the influence of oceanography can overwhelm the influences of physical and biological interactions on recovery potential at locations where environmental stressors are high, whereas populations in relatively benign physical conditions are predominantly structured by local ecological drivers. Such context-dependent information can help guide expectations and assist managers in optimizing strategies for spatial conservation planning for system recovery.

Site-dependent regulation of breeding success: evidence for the buffer effect in the common guillemot, a colonially-breeding seabird

Density-dependent regulation can offer resilience to wild populations experiencing fluctuations in environmental conditions because, at lower population sizes, the average quality of habitats or resources is predicted to increase. Site-dependent regulation is a mechanism whereby individuals breed at the highest quality, most successful, sites, leaving poorer quality, less successful sites vacant. As population size increases, higher quality sites become limiting but when populations decline, lower quality sites are vacated first, offering resilience. This process is known as the 'buffer effect'. However, few studies have tested whether such regulation operates in populations experiencing changes in size and trend. We used data from a population of common guillemots Uria aalge, a colonially breeding seabird, to investigate the relationship between site occupancy probability, site quality and population size and trend. These data were collected at five sub-colonies spanning a 38-year period (1981-2018) comprising phases of population increase, decrease and recovery. We first tested whether site quality and population size in sub-colonies explained which sites were occupied for breeding, and if this was robust to changes in sub-colony trend. We then investigated whether disproportionate use of higher quality sites drove average site quality and breeding success across sub-colony sizes and trends. Finally, we tested whether individuals consistently occupied higher quality sites during periods of decline and recovery. Higher quality sites were disproportionality used when sub-colony size was smaller, resulting in higher average site quality and breeding success at lower population sizes. This relationship was unaffected by changes in sub-colony trend. However, contrary to the predictions of the buffer effect, new sites were established at a similar rate to historically occupied sites during sub-colony decline and recovery despite being of lower quality. Our results provide support for the buffer effect conferring resilience to populations, such that average breeding success was consistently higher at lower population size during all phases of population change. However, this process was tempered by the continued establishment of new, lower quality, sites which could act to slow population recovery after periods when colony size was low.

Vital rates of two small populations of brown bears in Canada and range-wide relationship between population size and trend

Identifying mechanisms of population change is fundamental for conserving small and declining populations and determining effective management strategies. Few studies, however, have measured the demographic components of population change for small populations of mammals (<50 individuals). We estimated vital rates and trends in two adjacent but genetically distinct, threatened brown bear (Ursus arctos) populations in British Columbia, Canada, following the cessation of hunting. One population had approximately 45 resident bears but had some genetic and geographic connectivity to neighboring populations, while the other population had <25 individuals and was isolated. We estimated population-specific vital rates by monitoring survival and reproduction of telemetered female bears and their dependent offspring from 2005 to 2018. In the larger, connected population, independent female survival was 1.00 (95% CI: 0.96-1.00) and the survival of cubs in their first year was 0.85 (95% CI: 0.62-0.95). In the smaller, isolated population, independent female survival was 0.81 (95% CI: 0.64-0.93) and first-year cub survival was 0.33 (95% CI: 0.11-0.67). Reproductive rates did not differ between populations. The large differences in age-specific survival estimates resulted in a projected population increase in the larger population (λ = 1.09; 95% CI: 1.04-1.13) and population decrease in the smaller population (λ = 0.84; 95% CI: 0.72-0.95). Low female survival in the smaller population was the result of both continued human-caused mortality and an unusually high rate of natural mortality. Low cub survival may have been due to inbreeding and the loss of genetic diversity common in small populations, or to limited resources. In a systematic literature review, we compared our population trend estimates with those reported for other small populations (<300 individuals) of brown bears. Results suggest that once brown bear populations become small and isolated, populations rarely increase and, even with intensive management, recovery remains challenging.

Testing transgenerational transfer of personality in managed wildlife populations: a house mouse control experiment

Pest species control operations are most effective if every individual in a population is targeted. Yet, individual personality drives variation in animal responses to devices such as traps and baits. Failing to account for differences in behavior during control operations may drive a selective removal, resulting in residual animals with biased expressions of personality. If these biased traits are passed onto offspring, control operations would become increasingly problematic. To test if biased trait expressions in founding populations are passed on to offspring, we quantified personality traits in wild-caught house mice (Mus musculus) and created founder populations selected for biased (high, low) or intermediate expressions of activity. We released the behaviorally biased populations into outdoor yards to breed to the F₁ generation and, 10 weeks later, removed the mice and quantified the personality traits of the offspring. Despite the strong personality bias in founder populations, we observed no transgenerational transfer of personality and detected no personality bias in the F₁ generation. Our results provide reassuring evidence that a single intensive control operation that selects for survivors with a personality bias is unlikely to lead to a recovering population inherently more difficult to eradicate, at least for house mice.

Genetic Mutations That Drive Evolutionary Rescue to Lethal Temperature in Escherichia coli

Evolutionary rescue occurs when adaptation restores population growth against a lethal stressor. Here, we studied evolutionary rescue by conducting experiments with Escherichia coli at the lethal temperature of 43.0 °C, to determine the adaptive mutations that drive rescue and to investigate their effects on fitness and gene expression. From hundreds of populations, we observed that ∼9% were rescued by genetic adaptations. We sequenced 26 populations and identified 29 distinct mutations. Of these populations, 21 had a mutation in the hslVU or rpoBC operon, suggesting that mutations in either operon could drive rescue. We isolated seven strains of E. coli carrying a putative rescue mutation in either the hslVU or rpoBC operon to investigate the mutations’ effects. The single rescue mutations increased E. coli’s relative fitness by an average of 24% at 42.2 °C, but they decreased fitness by 3% at 37.0 °C, illustrating that antagonistic pleiotropy likely affected the establishment of rescue in our system. Gene expression analysis revealed only 40 genes were upregulated across all seven mutations, and these were enriched for functions in translational and flagellar production. As with previous experiments with high temperature adaptation, the rescue mutations tended to restore gene expression toward the unstressed state, but they also caused a higher proportion of novel gene expression patterns. Overall, we find that rescue is infrequent, that it is facilitated by a limited number of mutational targets, and that rescue mutations may have qualitatively different effects than mutations that arise from evolution to nonlethal stressors.

Mechanisms underlying host persistence following amphibian disease emergence determine appropriate management strategies

Emerging infectious diseases have caused many species declines, changes in communities and even extinctions. There are also many species that persist following devastating declines due to disease. The broad mechanisms that enable host persistence following declines include evolution of resistance or tolerance, changes in immunity and behaviour, compensatory recruitment, pathogen attenuation, environmental refugia, density-dependent transmission and changes in community composition. Here we examine the case of chytridiomycosis, the most important wildlife disease of the past century. We review the full breadth of mechanisms allowing host persistence, and synthesise research on host, pathogen, environmental and community factors driving persistence following chytridiomycosis-related declines and overview the current evidence and the information required to support each mechanism. We found that for most species the mechanisms facilitating persistence have not been identified. We illustrate how the mechanisms that drive long-term host population dynamics determine the most effective conservation management strategies. Therefore, understanding mechanisms of host persistence is important because many species continue to be threatened by disease, some of which will require intervention. The conceptual framework we describe is broadly applicable to other novel disease systems.

Catastrophic dynamics limit Atlantic cod recovery

Collapses and regime changes are pervasive in complex systems (such as marine ecosystems) governed by multiple stressors. The demise of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stocks constitutes a text book example of the consequences of overexploiting marine living resources, yet the drivers of these nearly synchronous collapses are still debated. Moreover, it is still unclear why rebuilding of collapsed fish stocks such as cod is often slow or absent. Here, we apply the stochastic cusp model, based on catastrophe theory, and show that collapse and recovery of cod stocks are potentially driven by the specific interaction between exploitation pressure and environmental drivers. Our statistical modelling study demonstrates that for most of the cod stocks, ocean warming could induce a nonlinear discontinuous relationship between fishing pressure and stock size, which would explain hysteresis in their response to reduced exploitation pressure. Our study suggests further that a continuing increase in ocean temperatures will probably limit productivity and hence future fishing opportunities for most cod stocks of the Atlantic Ocean. Moreover, our study contributes to the ongoing discussion on the importance of climate and fishing effects on commercially exploited fish stocks, highlighting the importance of considering discontinuous dynamics in holistic ecosystem-based management approaches, particularly under climate change.

Rates of increase in gray seal (Halichoerus grypus atlantica) pupping at recolonized sites in the United States, 1988-2019

Gray seals were historically distributed along the northeastern coast of the United States, but bounties and lack of protection reduced numbers and they were rarely observed for most of the 20th century. Once protections were enacted, the population started to rebound. Here, we describe the recolonization and recovery of gray seals in the United States, focusing on the re-establishment of pupping sites. We fit individual generalized linear models to various time series (1988–2019) to estimate rates of increase in observed pup counts at four of the more data-rich sites. Annual rate of increase at individual sites ranged from −0.2% (95% CI: −2.3–1.9%) to 26.3% (95% CI: 21.6–31.4%). The increase in sites and number of pups born in the United States is driven by population growth and immigration from Canadian colonies and is part of a larger recovery of the Northwest Atlantic population. Wildlife protection, a healthy source population, habitat availability, and species traits that allow for dispersal and high productivity were all important factors in this recovery.

Understanding post-disaster population recovery patterns

Despite the rising importance of enhancing community resilience to disasters, our understandings on when, how and why communities are able to recover from such extreme events are limited. Here, we study the macroscopic population recovery patterns in disaster affected regions, by observing human mobility trajectories of over 1.9 million mobile phone users across three countries before, during and after five major disasters. We find that, despite the diversity in socio-economic characteristics among the affected regions and the types of hazards, population recovery trends after significant displacement resemble similar patterns after all five disasters. Moreover, the heterogeneity in initial and long-term displacement rates across communities in the three countries were explained by a set of key common factors, including the community's median income level, population, housing damage rates and the connectedness to other cities. Such insights discovered from large-scale empirical data could assist policymaking in various disciplines for developing community resilience to disasters.

Unshifting the baseline: a framework for documenting historical population changes and assessing long-term anthropogenic impacts

Ecological baselines-reference states of species' distributions and abundances-are key to the scientific arguments underpinning many conservation and management interventions, as well as to the public support to such interventions. Yet societal as well as scientific perceptions of these baselines are often based on ecosystems that have been deeply transformed by human actions. Despite increased awareness about the pervasiveness and implications of this shifting baseline syndrome, ongoing global assessments of the state of biodiversity do not take into account the long-term, cumulative, anthropogenic impacts on biodiversity. Here, we propose a new framework for documenting such impacts, by classifying populations according to the extent to which they deviate from a baseline in the absence of human actions. We apply this framework to the bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus) to illustrate how it can be used to assess populations with different geographies and timelines of known or suspected impacts. Through other examples, we discuss how the framework can be applied to populations for which there is a wide diversity of existing knowledge, by making the best use of the available ecological, historical and archaeological data. Combined across multiple populations, this framework provides a standard for assessing cumulative anthropogenic impacts on biodiversity. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The past is a foreign country: how much can the fossil record actually inform conservation?'

Predator-prey role reversal may impair the recovery of declining pike populations

Many fish populations have experienced declines in recent decades due to anthropogenic disturbances, such as overfishing and habitat exploitation. Despite management actions, many populations show a limited capacity to recover. This may be attributed to reversal of predator-prey roles, yet empirical evidence to that effect remains scarce. Here, we combine field and laboratory studies to investigate the interaction between pike (Esox lucius), a large keystone top predatory fish, and the small-bodied mesopredatory threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) in the Baltic Sea where pike populations have declined. Our data suggest that stickleback predation on pike larvae depletes a large proportion of the recruitment and influences the size distribution through size-selective predation, which is corroborated by a gape-limitation experiment and diet analysis of wild-captured sticklebacks. The effects of stickleback predation are present across several populations and years, and our data suggest that early arrival of sticklebacks has stronger effects on juvenile pike survival. Finally, we use data on pike gape-limitation and the size distribution of sticklebacks to illustrate the process of role reversal. These findings suggest that mesopredator behaviour can reduce recruitment of a top predator species and impair the capacity of populations to recover. This emphasizes predator-prey role reversal as an important ecological and evolutionary driver that influences the outcome of restoration and management actions.

Tundra be dammed: Beaver colonization of the Arctic

Increasing air temperatures are changing the arctic tundra biome. Permafrost is thawing, snow duration is decreasing, shrub vegetation is proliferating, and boreal wildlife is encroaching. Here we present evidence of the recent range expansion of North American beaver (Castor canadensis) into the Arctic, and consider how this ecosystem engineer might reshape the landscape, biodiversity, and ecosystem processes. We developed a remote sensing approach that maps formation and disappearance of ponds associated with beaver activity. Since 1999, 56 new beaver pond complexes were identified, indicating that beavers are colonizing a predominantly tundra region (18,293 km² ) of northwest Alaska. It is unclear how improved tundra stream habitat, population rebound following overtrapping for furs, or other factors are contributing to beaver range expansion. We discuss rates and likely routes of tundra beaver colonization, as well as effects on permafrost, stream ice regimes, and freshwater and riparian habitat. Beaver ponds and associated hydrologic changes are thawing permafrost. Pond formation increases winter water temperatures in the pond and downstream, likely creating new and more varied aquatic habitat, but specific biological implications are unknown. Beavers create dynamic wetlands and are agents of disturbance that may enhance ecosystem responses to warming in the Arctic.

Mitigation of acidified salmon rivers - effects of liming on young brown trout Salmo trutta

In southern Norway, 22 acidified rivers supporting anadromous salmonids were mitigated with lime to improve water quality and restore fish populations. In 13 of these rivers, effects on Salmo trutta and Salmo salar densities were monitored over 10-12 years, grouped into age 0 and age ≥ 1 year fish. These rivers had a mean annual discharge of between 4·9 and 85·5 m³  s^-1 , and six of them were regulated for hydro-power production. Salmo salar were lost in six of these rivers prior to liming, and highly reduced in the remaining seven rivers. Post-liming, S. salar became re-established in all six rivers with lost populations, and recovered in the seven other rivers. Salmo trutta occurred in all 13 study rivers prior to liming. Despite the improved water quality, both age 0 and age ≥ 1 year S. trutta densities decreased as S. salar density increased, with an average reduction of >50% after 10 years of liming. For age 0 year S. trutta this effect was less strong in rivers where S. salar were present prior to liming. In contrast, densities of S. trutta increased in unlimed streams above the anadromous stretches in two of the rivers following improved water quality due to natural recovery. Density increases of both age 0 and age ≥ 1 year S. salar showed a positive effect of river discharge. The results suggest that the decline in S. trutta density after liming is related to interspecific resource competition due to the recovery of S. salar. Thus, improved water quality through liming may not only sustain susceptible species, but can have a negative effect on species that are more tolerant prior to the treatment, such as S. trutta.

Spatially varying density dependence drives a shifting mosaic of survival in a recovering apex predator (Canis lupus)

Understanding landscape patterns in mortality risk is crucial for promoting recovery of threatened and endangered species. Humans affect mortality risk in large carnivores such as wolves (Canis lupus), but spatiotemporally varying density dependence can significantly influence the landscape of survival. This potentially occurs when density varies spatially and risk is unevenly distributed. We quantified spatiotemporal sources of variation in survival rates of gray wolves (C. lupus) during a 21‐year period of population recovery in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, USA. We focused on mapping risk across time using Cox Proportional Hazards (CPH) models with time‐dependent covariates, thus exploring a shifting mosaic of survival. Extended CPH models and time‐dependent covariates revealed influences of seasonality, density dependence and experience, as well as individual‐level factors and landscape predictors of risk. We used results to predict the shifting landscape of risk at the beginning, middle, and end of the wolf recovery time series. Survival rates varied spatially and declined over time. Long‐term change was density‐dependent, with landscape predictors such as agricultural land cover and edge densities contributing negatively to survival. Survival also varied seasonally and depended on individual experience, sex, and resident versus transient status. The shifting landscape of survival suggested that increasing density contributed to greater potential for human conflict and wolf mortality risk. Long‐term spatial variation in key population vital rates is largely unquantified in many threatened, endangered, and recovering species. Variation in risk may indicate potential for source‐sink population dynamics, especially where individuals preemptively occupy suitable territories, which forces new individuals into riskier habitat types as density increases. We encourage managers to explore relationships between adult survival and localized changes in population density. Density‐dependent risk maps can identify increasing conflict areas or potential habitat sinks which may persist due to high recruitment in adjacent habitats.

Rapid proliferation of an endemic galaxiid following eradication of an alien piscivore (Perca fluviatilis) from a reservoir

Following the complete eradication of the alien piscivorous perch Perca fluviatilis from a potable reservoir, the abundance of the endemic western minnow Galaxias occidentalis, which was previously undetectable prior to the initial eradication event, increased dramatically. The study reveals the potential of reservoirs to act as ecological refuges and has implications for understanding the relative effects of alien fishes v. habitat alteration on native freshwater fishes.

The Great Diadema antillarum Die-Off: 30 Years Later

In 1983-1984, the sea urchin Diadema antillarum suffered mass mortality throughout the Caribbean, Florida, and Bermuda. The demise of this herbivore contributed to a phase shift of Caribbean reefs from coral-dominated to alga-dominated communities. A compilation of published data of D. antillarum population densities shows that there has been moderate recovery since 1983, with the highest rates on islands of the eastern Caribbean. On the average the current population densities are approximately 12% of those before the die-off, apparently because of recruitment limitation, but the exact factors that are constraining the recovery are unclear. Scattered D. antillarum cohorts in some localities and aggregation of settled individuals in shallow water have created zones of higher herbivory in which juvenile coral recruitment, survivorship, and growth are higher than they are in alga-dominated areas. Unlike other stressors on Caribbean coral reefs, recent changes in D. antillarum populations progress toward aiding the recovery of coral cover.

Improving supplementary feeding in species conservation

Supplementary feeding is often a knee-jerk reaction to population declines, and its application is not critically evaluated, leading to polarized views among managers on its usefulness. Here, we advocate a more strategic approach to supplementary feeding so that the choice to use it is clearly justified over, or in combination with, other management actions and the predicted consequences are then critically assessed following implementation. We propose combining methods from a set of specialist disciplines that will allow critical evaluation of the need, benefit, and risks of food supplementation. Through the use of nutritional ecology, population ecology, and structured decision making, conservation managers can make better choices about what and how to feed by estimating consequences on population recovery across a range of possible actions. This structured approach also informs targeted monitoring and more clearly allows supplementary feeding to be integrated in recovery plans and reduces the risk of inefficient decisions. In New Zealand, managers of the endangered Hihi (Notiomystis cincta) often rely on supplementary feeding to support reintroduced populations. On Kapiti island the reintroduced Hihi population has responded well to food supplementation, but the logistics of providing an increasing demand recently outstretched management capacity. To decide whether and how the feeding regime should be revised, managers used a structured decision making approach informed by population responses to alternative feeding regimes. The decision was made to reduce the spatial distribution of feeders and invest saved time in increasing volume of food delivered into a smaller core area. The approach used allowed a transparent and defendable management decision in regard to supplementary feeding, reflecting the multiple objectives of managers and their priorities.

Beaver-mediated methane emission: The effects of population growth in Eurasia and the Americas

Globally, greenhouse gas budgets are dominated by natural sources, and aquatic ecosystems are a prominent source of methane (CH(4)) to the atmosphere. Beaver (Castor canadensis and Castor fiber) populations have experienced human-driven change, and CH(4) emissions associated with their habitat remain uncertain. This study reports the effect of near extinction and recovery of beavers globally on aquatic CH4 emissions and habitat. Resurgence of native beaver populations and their introduction in other regions accounts for emission of 0.18-0.80 Tg CH(4) year(-1) (year 2000). This flux is approximately 200 times larger than emissions from the same systems (ponds and flowing waters that became ponds) circa 1900. Beaver population recovery was estimated to have led to the creation of 9500-42 000 km(2) of ponded water, and increased riparian interface length of >200 000 km. Continued range expansion and population growth in South America and Europe could further increase CH(4) emissions.

Regime shifts in exploited marine food webs: detecting mechanisms underlying alternative stable states using size-structured community dynamics theory

Many marine ecosystems have undergone ‘regime shifts’, i.e. abrupt reorganizations across trophic levels. Establishing whether these constitute shifts between alternative stable states is of key importance for the prospects of ecosystem recovery and for management. We show how mechanisms underlying alternative stable states caused by predator–prey interactions can be revealed in field data, using analyses guided by theory on size-structured community dynamics. This is done by combining data on individual performance (such as growth and fecundity) with information on population size and prey availability. We use Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and their prey in the Baltic Sea as an example to discuss and distinguish two types of mechanisms, ‘cultivation-depensation’ and ‘overcompensation’, that can cause alternative stable states preventing the recovery of overexploited piscivorous fish populations. Importantly, the type of mechanism can be inferred already from changes in the predators' body growth in different life stages. Our approach can thus be readily applied to monitored stocks of piscivorous fish species, for which this information often can be assembled. Using this tool can help resolve the causes of catastrophic collapses in marine predatory–prey systems and guide fisheries managers on how to successfully restore collapsed piscivorous fish stocks.

Allee effect and the uncertainty of population recovery

Recovery of depleted populations is fundamentally important for conservation biology and sustainable resource harvesting. At low abundance, population growth rate, a primary determinant of population recovery, is generally assumed to be relatively fast because competition is low (i.e., negative density dependence). But population growth can be limited in small populations by an Allee effect. This is particularly relevant for collapsed populations or species that have not recovered despite large reductions in, or elimination of, threats. We investigated how an Allee effect can influence the dynamics of recovery. We used Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) as the study organism and an empirically quantified Allee effect for the species to parameterize our simulations. We simulated recovery through an individual-based mechanistic simulation model and then compared recovery among scenarios incorporating an Allee effect, negative density dependence, and an intermediate scenario. Although an Allee effect significantly slowed recovery, such that population increase could be negligible even after 100 years or more, it also made the time required for biomass rebuilding much less predictable. Our finding that an Allee effect greatly increased the uncertainty in recovery time frames provides an empirically based explanation for why the removal of threat does not always result in the recovery of depleted populations or species.