A taxonomy of multiple stable states in complex ecological communities

Natural systems are built from multiple interconnected units, making their dynamics, functioning and fragility notoriously hard to predict. A fragility scenario of particular relevance concerns so-called regime shifts: abrupt transitions from healthy to degraded ecosystem states. An explanation for these shifts is that they arise as transitions between alternative stable states, a process that is well-understood in few-species models. However, how multistability upscales with system complexity remains a debated question. Here, we identify that four different multistability regimes generically emerge in models of species-rich communities and other archetypical complex biological systems assuming random interactions. Across the studied models, each regime consistently emerges under a specific interaction scheme and leaves a distinct set of fingerprints in terms of the number of observed states, their species richness and their response to perturbations. Our results help clarify the conditions and types of multistability that can be expected to occur in complex ecological communities.

Emergent Spatial Patterns Can Indicate Upcoming Regime Shifts in a Realistic Model of Coral Community

AbstractIncreased stress on coastal ecosystems, such as coral reefs, seagrasses, kelp forests, and other habitats, can make them shift toward degraded, often algae-dominated or barren communities. This has already occurred in many places around the world, calling for new approaches to identify where such regime shifts may be triggered. Theoretical work predicts that the spatial structure of habitat-forming species should exhibit changes prior to regime shifts, such as an increase in spatial autocorrelation. However, extending this theory to marine systems requires theoretical models connecting field-supported ecological mechanisms to data and spatial patterns at relevant scales. To do so, we built a spatially explicit model of subtropical coral communities based on experiments and long-term datasets from Rapa Nui (Easter Island, Chile), to test whether spatial indicators could signal upcoming regime shifts in coral communities. Spatial indicators anticipated degradation of coral communities following increases in frequency of bleaching events or coral mortality. However, they were generally unable to signal shifts that followed herbivore loss, a widespread and well-researched source of degradation, likely because herbivory, despite being critical for the maintenance of corals, had comparatively little effect on their self-organization. Informative trends were found under both equilibrium and nonequilibrium conditions but were determined by the type of direct neighbor interactions between corals, which remain relatively poorly documented. These inconsistencies show that while this approach is promising, its application to marine systems will require detailed information about the type of stressor and filling current gaps in our knowledge of interactions at play in coral communities.

Microcosm experiment combined with process-based modeling reveals differential response and adaptation of aquatic primary producers to warming and agricultural run-off

Fertilizers, pesticides and global warming are threatening freshwater aquatic ecosystems. Most of these are shallow ponds or slow-flowing streams or ditches dominated by submerged macrophytes, periphyton or phytoplankton. Regime shifts between the dominance of these primary producers can occur along a gradient of nutrient loading, possibly triggered by specific disturbances influencing their competitive interactions. However, phytoplankton dominance is less desirable due to lower biodiversity and poorer ecosystem function and services. In this study, we combined a microcosm experiment with a process-based model to test three hypotheses: 1) agricultural run-off (ARO), consisting of nitrate and a mixture of organic pesticides and copper, differentially affects primary producers and enhances the risk of regime shifts, 2) warming increases the risk of an ARO-induced regime shift to phytoplankton dominance and 3) custom-tailored process-based models support mechanistic understanding of experimental results through scenario comparison. Experimentally exposing primary producers to a gradient of nitrate and pesticides at 22°C and 26°C supported the first two hypotheses. ARO had direct negative effects on macrophytes, while phytoplankton gained from warming and indirect effects of ARO like a reduction in the competitive pressure exerted by other groups. We used the process-based model to test eight different scenarios. The best qualitative fit between modeled and observed responses was reached only when taking community adaptation and organism acclimation into account. Our results highlight the importance of considering such processes when attempting to predict the effects of multiple stressors on natural ecosystems.

Material legacies can degrade resilience: Structure-retaining disturbances promote regime shifts on coral reefs

Standing dead structures of habitat-forming organisms (e.g., dead trees, coral skeletons, oyster shells) killed by a disturbance are material legacies that can affect ecosystem recovery processes. Many ecosystems are subject to different types of disturbance that either remove biogenic structures or leave them intact. Here we used a mathematical model to quantify how the resilience of coral reef ecosystems may be differentially affected following structure-removing and structure-retaining disturbance events, focusing in particular on the potential for regime shifts from coral to macroalgae. We found that dead coral skeletons could substantially diminish coral resilience if they provided macroalgae refuge from herbivory, a key feedback associated with the recovery of coral populations. Our model shows that the material legacy of dead skeletons broadens the range of herbivore biomass over which coral and macroalgae states are bistable. Hence, material legacies can alter resilience by modifying the underlying relationship between a system driver (herbivory) and a state variable (coral cover).

Stable landings mask irreversible community reorganizations in an overexploited Mediterranean ecosystem

Cumulative human pressures and climate change can induce nonlinear discontinuous dynamics in ecosystems, known as regime shifts. Regime shifts typically imply hysteresis, a lacking or delayed system response when pressures are reverted, which can frustrate restoration efforts. Here, we investigate whether the northern Adriatic Sea fish and macroinvertebrate community, as depicted by commercial fishery landings, has undergone regime shifts over the last 40 years, and the reversibility of such changes. We use a stochastic cusp model to show that, under the interactive effect of fishing pressure and water warming, the community reorganized through discontinuous changes. We found that part of the community has now reached a new stable state, implying that a recovery towards previous baselines might be impossible. Interestingly, total landings remained constant across decades, masking the low resilience of the community. Our study reveals the importance of carefully assessing regime shifts and resilience in marine ecosystems under cumulative pressures and advocates for their inclusion into management.

Microclimate predicts kelp forest extinction in the face of direct and indirect marine heatwave effects

Marine heatwaves threaten the persistence of kelp forests globally. However, the observed responses of kelp forests to these events have been highly variable on local scales. Here, we synthesize distribution data from an environmentally diverse region to examine spatial patterns of canopy kelp persistence through an unprecedented marine heatwave. We show that, although often overlooked, temperature variation occurring at fine spatial scales (i.e., a few kilometers or less) can be a critical driver of kelp forest persistence during these events. Specifically, though kelp forests nearly all persisted toward the cool outer coast, inshore areas were >3°C warmer at the surface and experienced extensive kelp loss. Although temperatures remained cool at depths below the thermocline, kelp persistence in these thermal refugia was strongly constrained by biotic interactions, specifically urchin populations that increased during the heatwave and drove transitions to urchin barrens in deeper rocky habitat. Urchins were, however, largely absent from mixed sand and cobble benthos, leading to an unexpected association between bottom substrate and kelp forest persistence at inshore sites with warm surface waters. Our findings demonstrate both that warm microclimates increase the risk of habitat loss during marine heatwaves and that biotic interactions modified by these events will modulate the capacity of cool microclimates to serve as thermal refugia.

Modelling coupled human-environment complexity for the future of the biosphere: strengths, gaps and promising directions

Humans and the environment form a single complex system where humans not only influence ecosystems but also react to them. Despite this, there are far fewer coupled human–environment system (CHES) mathematical models than models of uncoupled ecosystems. We argue that these coupled models are essential to understand the impacts of social interventions and their potential to avoid catastrophic environmental events and support sustainable trajectories on multi-decadal timescales. A brief history of CHES modelling is presented, followed by a review spanning recent CHES models of systems including forests and land use, coral reefs and fishing and climate change mitigation. The ability of CHES modelling to capture dynamic two-way feedback confers advantages, such as the ability to represent ecosystem dynamics more realistically at longer timescales, and allowing insights that cannot be generated using ecological models. We discuss examples of such key insights from recent research. However, this strength brings with it challenges of model complexity and tractability, and the need for appropriate data to parameterize and validate CHES models. Finally, we suggest opportunities for CHES models to improve human–environment sustainability in future research spanning topics such as natural disturbances, social structure, social media data, model discovery and early warning signals.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Ecological complexity and the biosphere: the next 30 years’.

Temporary Allee effects among non-stationary recruitment dynamics in depleted gadid and flatfish populations

Many considerably declined fish populations have not fully recovered despite reductions in fishing pressure. One of the possible causes of impaired recovery is the (demographic) Allee effect. To investigate whether low-abundance recruitment dynamics can switch between compensation and depensation, the latter implying the presence of the Allee effect, we analysed the stock-recruitment time series of 17 depleted cod-type and flatfish populations using a Bayesian change point model. The recruitment dynamics were represented with the sigmoidal Beverton-Holt and the Saila-Lorda stock-recruitment models, allowing the parameters of the models to shift at a priori unknown change points. Our synthesis study questions the common assumption that recruitment is stationary and compensatory and the high amount of scatteredness often present in stock-recruitment data is only due to random variation. When a moderate amount of such variation was assumed, stock-recruitment dynamics were best explained by a non-stationary model for 53% of the populations, which suggests that these populations exhibit temporal changes in the stock-recruitment relationship. For four populations, we found shifts between compensation and depensation, suggesting the presence of temporary Allee effects. However, the evidence of Allee effects was highly dependent on the priors of the stock-recruitment model parameters and the amount of random variation assumed. Nonetheless, detection of changes in low-abundance recruitment is essential in stock assessment since such changes affect the renewal ability of the population and, ultimately, its sustainable harvest limits.

Critical Transitions in Ecosystems and Society. The Contribution of Sociological Systems Theory to the Analysis of Socio-Environmental Transformations

The theory of critical transitions and the theory of self-referential social systems are two well-established theories in the ecosystem and sociological research respectively. A dialogue between them may offer new insights on the complex articulation of the nature and society nexus in socio-environmental transformations. By means of the conceptual reconstruction of both theories and drawing on relevant literature of social-ecological research, in this article, I argue that systems theory can contribute to the theory of critical transitions with a robust concept of communication that accounts for the relevance of semantics and social structures, the production of communicative locks, and the identification of early warning signals of social-ecological transitions in communication. On the other hand, the theory of critical transitions provides systems theory with both a refined concept of crisis as critical transition and the technical tools for empirical research. The article concludes that the dialogue between the science of ecosystems and the science of society is not an intellectual exercise but a form of increasing the correspondence between social-ecological transitions and our explanations and interventions in this domain.

Effect of Artificial Regime Shifts and Biotic Factors on the Intensity of Foraging of Planktivorous Fish

It is still to be confirmed whether global warming with its predicted elevated water temperature will cause an increase in predation and alter phenological and physiological processes leading to changes in the size of aquatic organisms. In an experimental system of water column stratification simulating a natural combination of field conditions, we created artificial abiotic factors that mimicked the natural environment, i.e., light intensity, oxygen conditions, and thermal stratification. Subsequently, we added biotic factors such as algae, Daphnia, and planktivorous fish. We studied the intensity of foraging of planktivorous fish on individuals of Daphnia per min in different conditions of biotic and abiotic gradients. We demonstrated a possible scenario involving the risk of elimination of large prey within macrocladocera communities by predatory pressure as a result of climate change. A higher intensity of foraging of planktivorous fish caused or increased the occurrence of larger groups of planktonic animals with a smaller body size. The mechanisms of a future scenario were discovered at a higher trophic level in the aquatic environment.

Alleviation of nutrient co-limitation induces regime shifts in post-fire community composition and productivity in Arctic tundra

Recent unprecedented fires in the Arctic during the past two decades have indicated a pressing need to understand the long-term ecological impacts of fire in this biome. Anecdotal evidence suggests that tundra fires can induce regime shifts that change tussock tundra to more shrub-dominated ecosystems. However, the ecological mechanisms regulating these shifts are poorly understood, but are hypothesized to involve changes to nutrient availability in this nutrient limited system. Here we conducted a 4-year two-factorial (control: C, nitrogen along: N⁺ , phosphorus alone: P⁺ , nitrogen and phosphorus combined: NP⁺ ) fertilization experiment in both unburned and burned tundra to test this hypothesis after a decade of post-fire recovery. A decade after fire, the burned site exhibited an increase in soil nitrogen and phosphorus availability and a transition toward taller, more productive, and more deciduous vegetation. This shift in vegetation structure, composition, and function was induced at the unburned site through the addition of both NP⁺ and the alleviation of their co-limitation. Both burned and unburned tundra responded similarly to fertilizer treatments by increasing leaf area index, greenness, and canopy height in NP⁺ treatments, and exhibited no significant response in individual N⁺ or P⁺ treatments. These results point to a greater need to understand coupled carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus cycles in this system, and suggest that post-fire regime shifts are regulated by the alleviation of nitrogen and phosphorus co-limitation in Arctic tundra.

An Integrated Traits Resilience Assessment of Mediterranean fisheries landings

An increasing number of studies have been examining the functional configuration of biological communities or ecosystems using biological traits. Here, we investigated the temporal dynamics and resilience of the traits composition in Mediterranean fisheries landings over 31 years (1985-2015). We transcribed the FAO Mediterranean landings dataset for 101 marine species into a dataset of 23 traits related to the life cycle, distribution, ecology and behaviour. Mediterranean mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) was evaluated as a potential driver of the traits composition. Trait dynamics were evaluated both individually and holistically by developing an Integrated Traits Resilience Assessment (ITRA). ITRA is a variation of the Integrated Resilience Assessment (IRA), a method to infer resilience dynamics and build stability landscapes of complex natural systems. Changes in landings trait dynamics were documented both for individual traits and for the entire traits 'system', and a relevant regime shift was detected in the second half of the 1990s. The traits system switched to higher optimal temperature, more summer spawning, shorter life span, smaller maximum size, shallower optimal depth and planktivorous diet. This shift was found to be a lagged discontinuous response to sea warming, which gradually eroded the resilience of the original state of the traits system, leading it into a new basin of attraction. The inclusion of ecological/response traits (related to environmental preferences) in our analyses indicates potential mechanisms that explain the observed shift, while changes in functional/effect traits indicate potential impacts on ecosystem functioning. Our findings suggest that changes in the Mediterranean ecosystems are evidently larger than previously thought, with profound implications for the management of this highly impacted sea. ​.

No warning for slow transitions

A rise in fragility as a system approaches a tipping point may be sometimes estimated using dynamical indicators of resilience (DIORs) that measure the characteristic slowing down of recovery rates before a tipping point. A change in DIORs could be interpreted as an early warning signal for an upcoming critical transition. However, in order to be able to estimate the DIORs, observational records need to be long enough to capture the response rate of the system. As we show here, the required length of the time series depends on the response rates of the system. For instance, the current rate of anthropogenic climate forcing is fast relative to the response rate of some parts of the climate system. Therefore, we may expect difficulties estimating the resilience from modern time series. So far, there have been no systematic studies of the effects of the response rates of the dynamical systems and the rates of forcing on the detectability trends in the DIORs prior to critical transitions. Here, we quantify the performance of the resilience indicators variance and temporal autocorrelation, in systems with different response rates and for different rates of forcing. Our results show that the rapid rise of anthropogenic forcing to the Earth may make it difficult to detect changes in the resilience of ecosystems and climate elements from time series. These findings suggest that in order to determine with models whether the use of the DIORs is appropriate, we need to use realistic models that incorporate the key processes with the appropriate time constants.

The quiet crossing of ocean tipping points

Anthropogenic climate change profoundly alters the ocean's environmental conditions, which, in turn, impact marine ecosystems. Some of these changes are happening fast and may be difficult to reverse. The identification and monitoring of such changes, which also includes tipping points, is an ongoing and emerging research effort. Prevention of negative impacts requires mitigation efforts based on feasible research-based pathways. Climate-induced tipping points are traditionally associated with singular catastrophic events (relative to natural variations) of dramatic negative impact. High-probability high-impact ocean tipping points due to warming, ocean acidification, and deoxygenation may be more fragmented both regionally and in time but add up to global dimensions. These tipping points in combination with gradual changes need to be addressed as seriously as singular catastrophic events in order to prevent the cumulative and often compounding negative societal and Earth system impacts.

High summer temperatures amplify functional differences between coral- and algae-dominated reef communities

Shifts from coral to algal dominance are expected to increase in tropical coral reefs as a result of anthropogenic disturbances. The consequences for key ecosystem functions such as primary productivity, calcification, and nutrient recycling are poorly understood, particularly under changing environmental conditions. We used a novel in situ incubation approach to compare functions of coral‐ and algae‐dominated communities in the central Red Sea bimonthly over an entire year. In situ gross and net community primary productivity, calcification, dissolved organic carbon fluxes, dissolved inorganic nitrogen fluxes, and their respective activation energies were quantified to describe the effects of seasonal changes. Overall, coral‐dominated communities exhibited 30% lower net productivity and 10 times higher calcification than algae‐dominated communities. Estimated activation energies indicated a higher thermal sensitivity of coral‐dominated communities. In these communities, net productivity and calcification were negatively correlated with temperature (>40% and >65% reduction, respectively, with +5°C increase from winter to summer), whereas carbon losses via respiration and dissolved organic carbon release more than doubled at higher temperatures. In contrast, algae‐dominated communities doubled net productivity in summer, while calcification and dissolved organic carbon fluxes were unaffected. These results suggest pronounced changes in community functioning associated with coral‐algal phase shifts. Algae‐dominated communities may outcompete coral‐dominated communities because of their higher productivity and carbon retention to support fast biomass accumulation while compromising the formation of important reef framework structures. Higher temperatures likely amplify these functional differences, indicating a high vulnerability of ecosystem functions of coral‐dominated communities to temperatures even below coral bleaching thresholds. Our results suggest that ocean warming may not only cause but also amplify coral–algal phase shifts in coral reefs.

Clockwise and counterclockwise hysteresis characterize state changes in the same aquatic ecosystem

Incremental increases in a driver variable, such as nutrients or detritus, can trigger abrupt shifts in aquatic ecosystems that may exhibit hysteretic dynamics and a slow return to the initial state. A model system for understanding these dynamics is the microbial assemblage that inhabits the cup-shaped leaves of the pitcher plant Sarracenia purpurea. With enrichment of organic matter, this system flips within three days from an oxygen-rich state to an oxygen-poor state. In a replicated greenhouse experiment, we enriched pitcher-plant leaves at different rates with bovine serum albumin (BSA), a molecular substitute for detritus. Changes in dissolved oxygen (DO) and undigested BSA concentration were monitored during enrichment and recovery phases. With increasing enrichment rates, the dynamics ranged from clockwise hysteresis (low), to environmental tracking (medium), to novel counter-clockwise hysteresis (high). These experiments demonstrate that detrital enrichment rate can modulate a diversity of hysteretic responses within a single aquatic ecosystem, and suggest different management strategies may be needed to mitigate the effects of high vs. low rates of detrital enrichment.

Predicting ecosystem state changes in shallow lakes using an aquatic ecosystem model: Lake Hinge, Denmark, an example

In recent years, considerable efforts have been made to restore turbid, phytoplankton-dominated shallow lakes to a clear-water state with high coverage of submerged macrophytes. Various dynamic lake models with simplified physical representations of vertical gradients, such as PCLake, have been used to predict external nutrient load thresholds for such nonlinear regime shifts. However, recent observational studies have questioned the concept of regime shifts by emphasizing that gradual changes are more common than sudden shifts. We investigated if regime shifts would be more gradual if the models account for depth-dependent heterogeneity of the system by including the possibility of vertical gradients in the water column and sediment layers for the entire depth. Hence, bifurcation analysis was undertaken using the 1D hydrodynamic model GOTM, accounting for vertical gradients, coupled to the aquatic ecosystem model PCLake, which is implemented in the framework for aquatic biogeochemical modeling (FABM). First, the model was calibrated and validated against a comprehensive data set covering two consecutive 7-yr periods from Lake Hinge, a shallow, eutrophic Danish lake. The autocalibration program Auto-Calibration Python (ACPy) was applied to achieve a more comprehensive adjustment of model parameters. The model simulations showed excellent agreement with observed data for water temperature, total nitrogen, and nitrate and good agreement for ammonium, total phosphorus, phosphate, and chlorophyll a concentrations. Zooplankton and macrophyte coverage were adequately simulated for the purpose of this study, and in general the GOTM-FABM-PCLake model simulations performed well compared with other model studies. In contrast to previous model studies ignoring depth heterogeneity, our bifurcation analysis revealed that the spatial extent and depth limitation of macrophytes as well as phytoplankton chlorophyll-a responded more gradually over time to a reduction in the external phosphorus load, albeit some hysteresis effects still appeared. In a management perspective, our study emphasizes the need to include depth heterogeneity in the model structure to more correctly determine at which external nutrient load a given lake changes ecosystem state to a clear-water condition.

Critical transition to woody plant dominance through microclimate feedbacks in North American coastal ecosystems

Climate warming is facilitating the expansion of many cold-sensitive woody species in woodland-grassland ecotones worldwide. Recent research has demonstrated that this range expansion can be further enhanced by positive vegetation-microclimate feedbacks whereby woody canopies induce local nocturnal warming, which reduces freeze-induced damage and favors the establishment of woody plants. However, this local positive feedback can be counteracted by biotic drivers such as browsing and the associated consumption of shrub biomass. The joint effects of large-scale climate warming and local-scale microclimate feedbacks on woody vegetation dynamics in these ecotones remain poorly understood. Here, we used a combination of experimental and modeling approaches to investigate the effects of woody cover on microclimate and the consequent implications on ecological stability in North American coastal ecosystems. We found greater browsing pressure and significant warming (~2°C) beneath shrub canopies compared to adjacent grasslands, which reduces shrub seedlings' exposure to cold damage. Cold sensitivity is evidenced by the significant decline in xylem hydraulic conductivity in shrub seedlings when temperatures dropped below -2°C. Despite the negative browsing-vegetation feedback, a small increase in minimum temperature can induce critical transitions from grass to woody plant dominance. Our framework also predicts the threshold temperature of -7°C for mangrove-salt marsh ecotones on the Atlantic coast of Florida. Above this reference temperature a critical transition may occur from salt marsh to mangrove vegetation, in agreement with empirical studies. Thus, the interaction between ongoing global warming trends and microclimate feedbacks may significantly alter woody vegetation dynamics and ecological stability in coastal ecosystems where woody plant expansion is primarily constrained by extreme low temperature events.

Towards a Comparative Framework of Demographic Resilience

In the current global biodiversity crisis, the development of tools to define, quantify, compare, and predict resilience is essential for understanding the responses of species to global change. However, disparate interpretations of resilience have hampered the development of a common currency to quantify and compare resilience across natural systems. Most resilience frameworks focus on upper levels of biological organization, especially ecosystems or communities, which complicates measurements of resilience using empirical data. Surprisingly, there is no quantifiable definition of resilience at the demographic level. We introduce a framework of demographic resilience that draws on existing concepts from community and population ecology, as well as an accompanying set of metrics that are comparable across species.

Health policy impacts on malaria transmission in Costa Rica

Costa Rica is near malaria elimination. This achievement has followed shifts in malaria health policy. Here, we evaluate the impacts that different health policies have had on malaria transmission in Costa Rica from 1913 to 2018. We identified regime shifts and used regression models to measure the impact of different health policies on malaria transmission in Costa Rica using annual case records. We found that vector control and prophylactic treatments were associated with a 50% malaria case reduction in 1929-1931 compared with 1913-1928. DDT introduction in 1946 was associated with an increase in annual malaria case reduction from 7.6% (1942-1946) to 26.4% (1947-1952). The 2006 introduction of 7-day supervised chloroquine and primaquine treatments was the most effective health policy between 1957 and 2018, reducing annual malaria cases by 98% (2009-2018) when compared with 1957-1968. We also found that effective malaria reduction policies have been sensitive to natural catastrophes and extreme climatic events, both of which have increased malaria transmission in Costa Rica. Currently, outbreaks follow malaria importation into vulnerable areas of Costa Rica. This highlights the need to timely diagnose and treat malaria, while improving living standards, in the affected areas.

Modifying connectivity to promote state change reversal: the importance of geomorphic context and plant-soil feedbacks

Alternative states maintained by feedbacks are notoriously difficult, if not impossible, to reverse. Although positive interactions that modify soil conditions may have the greatest potential to alter self-reinforcing feedbacks, the conditions leading to these state change reversals have not been resolved. In a 9-yr study, we modified horizontal connectivity of resources by wind or water on different geomorphic surfaces in an attempt to alter plant-soil feedbacks and shift woody-plant-dominated states back toward perennial grass dominance. Modifying connectivity resulted in an increase in litter cover regardless of the vector of transport (wind, water) followed by an increase in perennial grass cover 2 yr later. Modifying connectivity was most effective on sandy soils where wind is the dominant vector, and least effective on gravelly soils on stable surfaces with low sediment movement by water. We found that grass cover was related to precipitation in the first 5 yr of our study, and plant-soil feedbacks developed following 6 yr of modified connectivity to overwhelm effects of precipitation on sandy, wind-blown soils. These feedbacks persisted through time under variable annual rainfall. On alluvial soils, either plant-soil feedbacks developed after 7 yr that were not persistent (active soils) or did not develop (stable soils). This novel approach has application to drylands globally where desertified lands have suffered losses in ecosystem services, and to other ecosystems where connectivity-mediated feedbacks modified at fine scales can be expected to impact plant recovery and state change reversals at larger scales, in particular for wind-impacted sites.

Critical transitions in rainfall manipulation experiments on grasslands

As a result of climate and land-use changes, grasslands have been subjected to intensifying drought regimes. Extreme droughts could interfere in the positive feedbacks between grasses and soil water content, pushing grasslands across critical thresholds of productivity and leading them to collapse. If this happens, systems may show hysteresis and costly management interventions might be necessary to restore predrought productivity. Thus, neglecting critical transitions may lead to mismanagement of grasslands and to irreversible loss of ecosystem services. Rainfall manipulation experiments constitute a powerful approach to investigate the risk of such critical transitions. However, experiments performed to date have rarely applied extreme droughts and have used resilience indices that disregard the existence of hysteresis. Here, we suggest how to incorporate critical transitions when designing rainfall manipulation experiments on grasslands and when measuring their resilience to drought. The ideas presented here have the potential to trigger a perspective shift among experimental researchers, into a new state where the existence of critical transitions will be discussed, experimentally tested, and largely considered when assessing and managing vegetation resilience to global changes.

The effect of climate change on the resilience of ecosystems with adaptive spatial pattern formation

In a rapidly changing world, quantifying ecosystem resilience is an important challenge. Historically, resilience has been defined via models that do not take spatial effects into account. These systems can only adapt via uniform adjustments. In reality, however, the response is not necessarily uniform, and can lead to the formation of (self-organised) spatial patterns - typically localised vegetation patches. Classical measures of resilience cannot capture the emerging dynamics in spatially self-organised systems, including transitions between patterned states that have limited impact on ecosystem structure and productivity. We present a framework of interlinked phase portraits that appropriately quantifies the resilience of patterned states, which depends on the number of patches, the distances between them and environmental conditions. We show how classical resilience concepts fail to distinguish between small and large pattern transitions, and find that the variance in interpatch distances provides a suitable indicator for the type of imminent transition. Subsequently, we describe the dependency of ecosystem degradation based on the rate of climatic change: slow change leads to sporadic, large transitions, whereas fast change causes a rapid sequence of smaller transitions. Finally, we discuss how pre-emptive removal of patches can minimise productivity losses during pattern transitions, constituting a viable conservation strategy.

Food System Transformation: Integrating a Political-Economy and Social-Ecological Approach to Regime Shifts

Sustainably achieving the goal of global food security is one of the greatest challenges of the 21st century. The current food system is failing to meet the needs of people, and at the same time, is having far-reaching impacts on the environment and undermining human well-being in other important ways. It is increasingly apparent that a deep transformation in the way we produce and consume food is needed in order to ensure a more just and sustainable future. This paper uses the concept of regime shifts to understand key drivers and innovations underlying past disruptions in the food system and to explore how they may help us think about desirable future changes and how we might leverage them. We combine two perspectives on regime shifts-one derived from natural sciences and the other from social sciences-to propose an interpretation of food regimes that draws on innovation theory. We use this conceptualization to discuss three examples of innovations that we argue helped enable critical regime shifts in the global food system in the past: the Haber-Bosch process of nitrogen fixation, the rise of the supermarket, and the call for more transparency in the food system to reconnect consumers with their food. This paper concludes with an exploration of why this combination of conceptual understandings is important across the Global North/ Global South divide, and proposes a new sustainability regime where transformative change is spearheaded by a variety of social-ecological innovations.

The importance of transient social dynamics for restoring ecosystems beyond ecological tipping points

Managing regime shifts is often associated with “turning back from the brink” assuming that once a system has transgressed a tipping point, it moves unavoidably toward the undesired state. We show that a regime shift is rather a slippery slope that can be managed and even reversed when transient dynamics and time lags in the coupled social-ecological system are taken into account. We constructed an empirically based simulation model that includes the combined effect from nonlinear ecological dynamics and human adaptation. Delayed policy response and slow implementation introduce time lags that can strongly affect lake restoration time. Our model demonstrates how time lags in municipal policy making can be compensated for by individual action mediated through social pressure.

Regime shift modeling and management generally focus on tipping points, early warning indicators, and the prevention of abrupt shifts to undesirable states. Few studies assess the potential for restoring a deteriorating ecosystem that is on a transition pathway toward an undesirable state. During the transition, feedbacks that stabilize the new regime are still weak, providing an opportunity to reverse the ongoing shift. Here, we present a social-ecological model that explores both how transient social processes affect ecological dynamics in the vicinity of a tipping point to reinforce the desired state and how social mechanisms of policy implementation affect restoration time. We simulate transitions of a lake, policy making, and behavioral change by lake polluters to study the time lags that emerge as a response to the transient, deteriorating lake state. We found that restoration time is most sensitive to the timing of policy making, but that the transient dynamics of the social processes determined outcomes in nontrivial ways. Social pressure to adopt costly technology, in our case on-site sewage treatment, was up to a degree capable of compensating for delays in municipal policy making. Our analysis of interacting social and ecological time lags in the transient phase of a shallow lake highlights opportunities for restoration that a stable state analysis would miss. We discuss management perspectives for navigating critical feedbacks in a transitioning social-ecological system. The understanding of transient dynamics and the interaction with social time lags can be more relevant than solely stable states and tipping points.

Thermal stress induces persistently altered coral reef fish assemblages

Ecological communities are reorganizing in response to warming temperatures. For continuous ocean habitats this reorganization is characterized by large-scale species redistribution, but for tropical discontinuous habitats such as coral reefs, spatial isolation coupled with strong habitat dependence of fish species imply that turnover and local extinctions are more significant mechanisms. In these systems, transient marine heatwaves are causing coral bleaching and profoundly altering habitat structure, yet despite severe bleaching events becoming more frequent and projections indicating annual severe bleaching by the 2050s at most reefs, long-term effects on the diversity and structure of fish assemblages remain unclear. Using a 23-year time series spanning a thermal stress event, we describe and model structural changes and recovery trajectories of fish communities after mass bleaching. Communities changed fundamentally, with the new emergent communities dominated by herbivores and persisting for >15 years, a period exceeding realized and projected intervals between thermal stress events on coral reefs. Reefs which shifted to macroalgal states had the lowest species richness and highest compositional dissimilarity, whereas reefs where live coral recovered exceeded prebleaching fish richness, but remained dissimilar to prebleaching compositions. Given realized and projected frequencies of bleaching events, our results show that fish communities historically associated with coral reefs will not re-establish, requiring substantial adaptation by managers and resource users.

Spatial early warning signals for impending regime shifts: A practical framework for application in real-world landscapes

Prediction of ecosystem response to global environmental change is a pressing scientific challenge of major societal relevance. Many ecosystems display nonlinear responses to environmental change, and may even undergo practically irreversible 'regime shifts' that initiate ecosystem collapse. Recently, early warning signals based on spatiotemporal metrics have been proposed for the identification of impending regime shifts. The rapidly increasing availability of remotely sensed data provides excellent opportunities to apply such model-based spatial early warning signals in the real world, to assess ecosystem resilience and identify impending regime shifts induced by global change. Such information would allow land-managers and policy makers to interfere and avoid catastrophic shifts, but also to induce regime shifts that move ecosystems to a desired state. Here, we show that the application of spatial early warning signals in real-world landscapes presents unique and unexpected challenges, and may result in misleading conclusions when employed without careful consideration of the spatial data and processes at hand. We identify key practical and theoretical issues and provide guidelines for applying spatial early warning signals in heterogeneous, real-world landscapes based on literature review and examples from real-world data. Major identified issues include (1) spatial heterogeneity in real-world landscapes may enhance reversibility of regime shifts and boost landscape-level resilience to environmental change (2) ecosystem states are often difficult to define, while these definitions have great impact on spatial early warning signals and (3) spatial environmental variability and socio-economic factors may affect spatial patterns, spatial early warning signals and associated regime shift predictions. We propose a novel framework, shifting from an ecosystem perspective towards a landscape approach. The framework can be used to identify conditions under which resilience assessment with spatial remotely sensed data may be successful, to support well-informed application of spatial early warning signals, and to improve predictions of ecosystem responses to global environmental change.

Inferring critical thresholds of ecosystem transitions from spatial data

Ecosystems can undergo abrupt transitions between alternative stable states when the driver crosses a critical threshold. Dynamical systems theory shows that when ecosystems approach the point of loss of stability associated with these transitions, they take a long time to recover from perturbations, a phenomenon known as critical slowing down. This generic feature of dynamical systems can offer early warning signals of abrupt transitions. However, these signals are qualitative and cannot quantify the thresholds of drivers at which transition may occur. Here, we propose a method to estimate critical thresholds from spatial data. We show that two spatial metrics, spatial variance and autocorrelation of ecosystem state variable, computed along driver gradients can be used to estimate critical thresholds. First, we investigate cellular-automaton models of ecosystem dynamics that show a transition from a high-density state to a bare state. Our models show that critical thresholds can be estimated as the ecosystem state and the driver values at which spatial variance and spatial autocorrelation of the ecosystem state are maximum. Next, to demonstrate the application of the method, we choose remotely sensed vegetation data (Enhanced Vegetation Index, EVI) from regions in central Africa and northeast Australia that exhibit alternative states in woody cover. We draw transects (8 × 90 km) that span alternative stable states along rainfall gradients. Our analyses of spatial variance and autocorrelation of EVI along transects yield estimates of critical thresholds. These estimates match reasonably well with those obtained by an independent method that uses large-scale (250 × 200 km) spatial data sets. Given the generality of the principles that underlie our method, our method can be applied to a variety of ecosystems that exhibit alternative stable states.

An information theory-based approach to assessing spatial patterns in complex systems

Given the intensity and frequency of environmental change, the linked and cross-scale nature of social-ecological systems, and the proliferation of big data, methods that can help synthesize complex system behavior over a geographical area are of great value. Fisher information evaluates order in data and has been established as a robust and effective tool for capturing changes in system dynamics, including the detection of regimes and regime shifts. Methods developed to compute Fisher information can accommodate multivariate data of various types and requires no a priori decisions about system drivers, making it a unique and powerful tool. However, the approach has primarily been used to evaluate temporal patterns. In its sole application to spatial data, Fisher information successfully detected regimes in terrestrial and aquatic systems over transects. Although the selection of adjacently positioned sampling stations provided a natural means of ordering the data, such an approach limits the types of questions that can be answered in a spatial context. Here, we expand the approach to develop a method for more fully capturing spatial dynamics. Results reflect changes in the index that correspond with geographical patterns and demonstrate the utility of the method in uncovering hidden spatial trends in complex systems.

Resilience of tropical tree cover: The roles of climate, fire, and herbivory

Fires and herbivores shape tropical vegetation structure, but their effects on the stability of tree cover in different climates remain elusive. Here, we integrate empirical and theoretical approaches to determine the effects of climate on fire- and herbivore-driven forest-savanna shifts. We analyzed time series of remotely sensed tree cover and fire observations with estimates of herbivore pressure across the tropics to quantify the fire-tree cover and herbivore-tree cover feedbacks along climatic gradients. From these empirical results, we developed a spatially explicit, stochastic fire-vegetation model that accounts for herbivore pressure. We find emergent alternative stable states in tree cover with hysteresis across rainfall conditions. Whereas the herbivore-tree cover feedback can maintain low tree cover below 1,100 mm mean annual rainfall, the fire-tree cover feedback can maintain low tree cover at higher rainfall levels. Interestingly, the rainfall range where fire-driven alternative vegetation states can be found depends strongly on rainfall variability. Both higher seasonal and interannual variability in rainfall increase fire frequency, but only seasonality expands the distribution of fire-maintained savannas into wetter climates. The strength of the fire-tree cover feedback depends on the spatial configuration of tree cover: Landscapes with clustered low tree-cover areas are more susceptible to cross a tipping point of fire-driven forest loss than landscapes with scattered deforested patches. Our study shows how feedbacks involving fire, herbivores, and the spatial structure of tree cover explain the resilience of tree cover across climates.

Altered fire regimes cause long-term lichen diversity losses

Many global ecosystems have undergone shifts in fire regimes in recent decades, such as changes in fire size, frequency, and/or severity. Recent research shows that increases in fire size, frequency, and severity can lead to long-persisting deforestation, but the consequences of shifting fire regimes for biodiversity of other vegetative organisms (such as understory plants, fungi, and lichens) remain poorly understood. Understanding lichen responses to wildfire is particularly important because lichens play crucial roles in nutrient cycling and supporting wildlife in many ecosystems. Lichen responses to fire have been little studied, and most previous research has been limited to small geographic areas (e.g. studies of a single fire), making it difficult to establish generalizable patterns. To investigate long-term effects of fire severity on lichen communities, we sampled epiphytic lichen communities in 104 study plots across California's greater Sierra Nevada region in areas that burned in five wildfires, ranging from 4 to 16 years prior to sampling. The conifer forest ecosystems we studied have undergone a notable increase in fire severity in recent decades, and we sample across the full gradient of fire severity to infer how shifting fire regimes may influence landscape-level biodiversity. We find that low-severity fire has little to no effect on lichen communities. Areas that burned at moderate and high severities, however, have significantly and progressively lower lichen richness and abundance. Importantly, we observe very little postfire lichen recolonization on burned substrates even more than 15 years after fire. Our multivariate model suggests that the hotter, drier microclimates that occur after fire removes forest canopies may prevent lichen reestablishment, meaning that lichens are not likely to recolonize until mature trees regenerate. These findings suggest that altered fire regimes may cause broad and long-persisting landscape-scale biodiversity losses that could ultimately impact multiple trophic levels.

Climate change alterations to ecosystem dominance: how might sponge-dominated reefs function?

Anthropogenic stressors are impacting ecological systems across the world. Of particular concern are the recent rapid changes occurring in coral reef systems. With ongoing degradation from both local and global stressors, future reefs are likely to function differently from current coral-dominated ecosystems. Determining key attributes of future reef states is critical to reliably predict outcomes for ecosystem service provision. Here we explore the impacts of changing sponge dominance on coral reefs. Qualitative modelling of reef futures suggests that changing sponge dominance due to increased sponge abundance will have different outcomes for other trophic levels compared with increased sponge dominance as a result of declining coral abundance. By exploring uncertainty in the model outcomes we identify the need to (1) quantify changes in carbon flow through sponges, (2) determine the importance of food limitation for sponges, (3) assess the ubiquity of the recently described "sponge loop," (4) determine the competitive relationships between sponges and other benthic taxa, particularly algae, and (5) understand how changing dominance of other organisms alters trophic pathways and energy flows through ecosystems. Addressing these knowledge gaps will facilitate development of more complex models that assess functional attributes of sponge-dominated reef ecosystems.

Non-linear shift from grassland to shrubland in temperate barrier islands

Woody plant encroachment into grasslands is a major land cover change taking place in many regions of the world, including arctic, alpine and desert ecosystems. This change in plant dominance is also affecting coastal ecosystems, including barrier islands, which are known for being vulnerable to the effects of climate change. In the last century, the woody plant species Morella cerifera L. (Myricaceae), has encroached into grass covered swales in many of the barrier islands of Virginia along the Atlantic seaboard. The abrupt shift to shrub cover in these islands could result from positive feedbacks with the physical environment, though the underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. We use a combination of experimental and modeling approaches to investigate the role of climate warming and the ability of M. cerifera to mitigate its microclimate thereby leading to the emergence of alternative stable states in barrier island vegetation. Nighttime air temperatures were significantly higher in myrtle shrublands than grasslands, particularly in the winter season. The difference in the mean of the 5% and 10% lowest minimum temperatures between shrubland and grassland calculated from two independent datasets ranged from 1.3 to 2.4°C. The model results clearly show that a small increase in near-surface temperature can induce a non-linear shift in ecosystem state from a stable state with no shrubs to an alternative stable state dominated by M. cerifera. This modeling framework improves our understanding and prediction of barrier island vegetation stability and resilience under climate change, and highlights the existence of important nonlinearities and hystereses that limit the reversibility of this ongoing shift in vegetation dominance.

Abrupt Change in Ecological Systems: Inference and Diagnosis

Abrupt ecological changes are, by definition, those that occur over short periods of time relative to typical rates of change for a given ecosystem. The potential for such changes is growing due to anthropogenic pressures, which challenges the resilience of societies and ecosystems. Abrupt ecological changes are difficult to diagnose because they can arise from a variety of circumstances, including rapid changes in external drivers (e.g., climate, or resource extraction), nonlinear responses to gradual changes in drivers, and interactions among multiple drivers and disturbances. We synthesize strategies for identifying causes of abrupt ecological change and highlight instances where abrupt changes are likely. Diagnosing abrupt changes and inferring causation are increasingly important as society seek to adapt to rapid, multifaceted environmental changes.

Indicators of transitions in biological systems

In the face of global biodiversity declines, predicting the fate of biological systems is a key goal in ecology. One popular approach is the search for early warning signals (EWSs) based on alternative stable states theory. In this review, we cover the theory behind nonlinearity in dynamic systems and techniques to detect the loss of resilience that can indicate state transitions. We describe the research done on generic abundance-based signals of instability that are derived from the phenomenon of critical slowing down, which represent the genesis of EWSs research. We highlight some of the issues facing the detection of such signals in biological systems - which are inherently complex and show low signal-to-noise ratios. We then document research on alternative signals of instability, including measuring shifts in spatial autocorrelation and trait dynamics, and discuss potential future directions for EWSs research based on detailed demographic and phenotypic data. We set EWSs research in the greater field of predictive ecology and weigh up the costs and benefits of simplicity vs. complexity in predictive models, and how the available data should steer the development of future methods. Finally, we identify some key unanswered questions that, if solved, could improve the applicability of these methods.

Multifarious anchovy and sardine regimes in the Humboldt Current System during the last 150 years

The Humboldt Current System (HCS) has the highest production of forage fish in the world, although it is highly variable and the future of the primary component, anchovy, is uncertain in the context of global warming. Paradigms based on late 20th century observations suggest that large-scale forcing controls decadal-scale fluctuations of anchovy and sardine across different boundary currents of the Pacific. We develop records of anchovy and sardine fluctuations since 1860 AD using fish scales from multiple sites containing laminated sediments and compare them with Pacific basin-scale and regional indices of ocean climate variability. Our records reveal two main anchovy and sardine phases with a timescale that is not consistent with previously proposed periodicities. Rather, the regime shifts in the HCS are related to 3D habitat changes driven by changes in upwelling intensity from both regional and large-scale forcing. Moreover, we show that a long-term increase in coastal upwelling translates via a bottom-up mechanism to top predators suggesting that the warming climate, at least up to the start of the 21st century, was favorable for fishery productivity in the HCS.

Delayed behavioural shifts undermine the sustainability of social-ecological systems

Natural habitat destruction and fragmentation generate a time-delayed loss of species and associated ecosystem services. As social-ecological systems (SESs) depend on a range of ecosystem services, lagged ecological dynamics may affect their long-term sustainability. Here, we investigate the role of consumption changes for sustainability, under a time-delayed ecological feedback on agricultural production. We use a stylized model that couples the dynamics of biodiversity, technology, human demography and compliance with a social norm prescribing sustainable consumption. Compliance with the sustainable norm reduces both the consumption footprint and the vulnerability of SESs to transient overshoot-and-collapse population crises. We show that the timing and interaction between social, demographic and ecological feedbacks govern the transient and long-term dynamics of the system. A sufficient level of social pressure (e.g. disapproval) applied on the unsustainable consumers leads to the stable coexistence of unsustainable and sustainable or mixed equilibria, where both defectors and conformers coexist. Under bistability conditions, increasing extinction debts reduces the resilience of the system, thus favouring abrupt regime shifts towards unsustainable pathways. Given recent evidence of large extinction debts, such results call for farsightedness and a better understanding of time delays when studying the sustainability of coupled SESs.

Signatures of the collapse and incipient recovery of an overexploited marine ecosystem

The Northwest Atlantic cod stocks collapsed in the early 1990s and have yet to recover, despite the subsequent establishment of a continuing fishing moratorium. Efforts to understand the collapse and lack of recovery have so far focused mainly on the dynamics of commercially harvested species. Here, we use data from a 33-year scientific trawl survey to determine to which degree the signatures of the collapse and recovery of the cod are apparent in the spatial and temporal dynamics of the broader groundfish community. Over this 33-year period, the groundfish community experienced four phases of change: (i) a period of rapid, synchronous biomass collapse in most species, (ii) followed by a regime shift in community composition with a concomitant loss of functional diversity, (iii) followed in turn by periods of slow compositional recovery, and (iv) slow biomass growth. Our results demonstrate how a community-wide perspective can reveal new aspects of the dynamics of collapse and recovery unavailable from the analysis of individual species or a combination of a small number of species. Overall, we found evidence that such community-level signals should be useful for designing more effective management strategies to ensure the persistence of exploited marine ecosystems.

Interaction between top-down and bottom-up control in marine food webs

Climate change and resource exploitation have been shown to modify the importance of bottom-up and top-down forces in ecosystems. However, the resulting pattern of trophic control in complex food webs is an emergent property of the system and thus unintuitive. We develop a statistical nondeterministic model, capable of modeling complex patterns of trophic control for the heavily impacted North Sea ecosystem. The model is driven solely by fishing mortality and climatic variables and based on time-series data covering >40 y for six plankton and eight fish groups along with one bird group (>20 y). Simulations show the outstanding importance of top-down exploitation pressure for the dynamics of fish populations. Whereas fishing effects on predators indirectly altered plankton abundance, bottom-up climatic processes dominate plankton dynamics. Importantly, we show planktivorous fish to have a central role in the North Sea food web initiating complex cascading effects across and between trophic levels. Our linked model integrates bottom-up and top-down effects and is able to simulate complex long-term changes in ecosystem components under a combination of stressor scenarios. Our results suggest that in marine ecosystems, pathways for bottom-up and top-down forces are not necessarily mutually exclusive and together can lead to the emergence of complex patterns of control.

Drivers and predictions of coral reef carbonate budget trajectories

Climate change is one of the greatest threats to the long-term maintenance of coral-dominated tropical ecosystems, and has received considerable attention over the past two decades. Coral bleaching and associated mortality events, which are predicted to become more frequent and intense, can alter the balance of different elements that are responsible for coral reef growth and maintenance. The geomorphic impacts of coral mass mortality have received relatively little attention, particularly questions concerning temporal recovery of reef carbonate production and the factors that promote resilience of reef growth potential. Here, we track the biological carbonate budgets of inner Seychelles reefs from 1994 to 2014, spanning the 1998 global bleaching event when these reefs lost more than 90% of coral cover. All 21 reefs had positive budgets in 1994, but in 2005 budgets were predominantly negative. By 2014, carbonate budgets on seven reefs were comparable with 1994, but on all reefs where an ecological regime shift to macroalgal dominance occurred, budgets remained negative through 2014. Reefs with higher massive coral cover, lower macroalgae cover and lower excavating parrotfish biomass in 1994 were more likely to have positive budgets post-bleaching. If mortality of corals from the 2016 bleaching event is as severe as that of 1998, our predictions based on past trends would suggest that six of eight reefs with positive budgets in 2014 would still have positive budgets by 2030. Our results highlight that reef accretion and framework maintenance cannot be assumed from the ecological state alone, and that managers should focus on conserving aspects of coral reefs that support resilient carbonate budgets.

Detecting spatial regimes in ecosystems

Research on early warning indicators has generally focused on assessing temporal transitions with limited application of these methods to detecting spatial regimes. Traditional spatial boundary detection procedures that result in ecoregion maps are typically based on ecological potential (i.e. potential vegetation), and often fail to account for ongoing changes due to stressors such as land use change and climate change and their effects on plant and animal communities. We use Fisher information, an information theory-based method, on both terrestrial and aquatic animal data (U.S. Breeding Bird Survey and marine zooplankton) to identify ecological boundaries, and compare our results to traditional early warning indicators, conventional ecoregion maps and multivariate analyses such as nMDS and cluster analysis. We successfully detected spatial regimes and transitions in both terrestrial and aquatic systems using Fisher information. Furthermore, Fisher information provided explicit spatial information about community change that is absent from other multivariate approaches. Our results suggest that defining spatial regimes based on animal communities may better reflect ecological reality than do traditional ecoregion maps, especially in our current era of rapid and unpredictable ecological change.

Socioecological transitions trigger fire regime shifts and modulate fire-climate interactions in the Sierra Nevada, USA, 1600-2015 CE

Large wildfires in California cause significant socioecological impacts, and half of the federal funds for fire suppression are spent each year in California. Future fire activity is projected to increase with climate change, but predictions are uncertain because humans can modulate or even override climatic effects on fire activity. Here we test the hypothesis that changes in socioecological systems from the Native American to the current period drove shifts in fire activity and modulated fire-climate relationships in the Sierra Nevada. We developed a 415-y record (1600-2015 CE) of fire activity by merging a tree-ring-based record of Sierra Nevada fire history with a 20th-century record based on annual area burned. Large shifts in the fire record corresponded with socioecological change, and not climate change, and socioecological conditions amplified and buffered fire response to climate. Fire activity was highest and fire-climate relationships were strongest after Native American depopulation-following mission establishment (ca. 1775 CE)-reduced the self-limiting effect of Native American burns on fire spread. With the Gold Rush and Euro-American settlement (ca. 1865 CE), fire activity declined, and the strong multidecadal relationship between temperature and fire decayed and then disappeared after implementation of fire suppression (ca. 1904 CE). The amplification and buffering of fire-climate relationships by humans underscores the need for parameterizing thresholds of human- vs. climate-driven fire activity to improve the skill and value of fire-climate models for addressing the increasing fire risk in California.

Transformative Environmental Governance

Transformative governance is an approach to environmental governance that has the capacity to respond to, manage, and trigger regime shifts in coupled social-ecological systems (SESs) at multiple scales. The goal of transformative governance is to actively shift degraded SESs to alternative, more desirable, or more functional regimes by altering the structures and processes that define the system. Transformative governance is rooted in ecological theories to explain cross-scale dynamics in complex systems, as well as social theories of change, innovation, and technological transformation. Similar to adaptive governance, transformative governance involves a broad set of governance components, but requires additional capacity to foster new social-ecological regimes including increased risk tolerance, significant systemic investment, and restructured economies and power relations. Transformative governance has the potential to actively respond to regime shifts triggered by climate change, and thus future research should focus on identifying system drivers and leading indicators associated with social-ecological thresholds.

Transformative Environmental Governance

Transformative governance is an approach to environmental governance that has the capacity to respond to, manage, and trigger regime shifts in coupled social-ecological systems (SESs) at multiple scales. The goal of transformative governance is to actively shift degraded SESs to alternative, more desirable, or more functional regimes by altering the structures and processes that define the system. Transformative governance is rooted in ecological theories to explain cross-scale dynamics in complex systems, as well as social theories of change, innovation, and technological transformation. Similar to adaptive governance, transformative governance involves a broad set of governance components, but requires additional capacity to foster new social-ecological regimes including increased risk tolerance, significant systemic investment, and restructured economies and power relations. Transformative governance has the potential to actively respond to regime shifts triggered by climate change, and thus future research should focus on identifying system drivers and leading indicators associated with social-ecological thresholds.

Rate of forcing and the forecastability of critical transitions

Critical transitions are qualitative changes of state that occur when a stochastic dynamical system is forced through a critical point. Many critical transitions are preceded by characteristic fluctuations that may serve as model‐independent early warning signals, implying that these events may be predictable in applications ranging from physics to biology. In nonbiological systems, the strength of such early warning signals has been shown partly to be determined by the speed at which the transition occurs. It is currently unknown whether biological systems, which are inherently high dimensional and typically display low signal‐to‐noise ratios, also exhibit this property, which would have important implications for how ecosystems are managed, particularly where the forces exerted on a system are anthropogenic. We examine whether the rate of forcing can alter the strength of early warning signals in (1) a model exhibiting a fold bifurcation where a state shift is driven by the harvesting of individuals, and (2) a model exhibiting a transcritical bifurcation where a state shift is driven by increased grazing pressure. These models predict that the rate of forcing can alter the detectability of early warning signals regardless of the underlying bifurcation the system exhibits, but that this result may be more pronounced in fold bifurcations. These findings have important implications for the management of biological populations, particularly harvested systems such as fisheries, and suggest that knowing the class of bifurcations a system will manifest may help discriminate between true‐positive and false‐positive signals.

Resilience and stability of a pelagic marine ecosystem

The accelerating loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services worldwide has accentuated a long-standing debate on the role of diversity in stabilizing ecological communities and has given rise to a field of research on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning (BEF). Although broad consensus has been reached regarding the positive BEF relationship, a number of important challenges remain unanswered. These primarily concern the underlying mechanisms by which diversity increases resilience and community stability, particularly the relative importance of statistical averaging and functional complementarity. Our understanding of these mechanisms relies heavily on theoretical and experimental studies, yet the degree to which theory adequately explains the dynamics and stability of natural ecosystems is largely unknown, especially in marine ecosystems. Using modelling and a unique 60-year dataset covering multiple trophic levels, we show that the pronounced multi-decadal variability of the Southern California Current System (SCCS) does not represent fundamental changes in ecosystem functioning, but a linear response to key environmental drivers channelled through bottom-up and physical control. Furthermore, we show strong temporal asynchrony between key species or functional groups within multiple trophic levels caused by opposite responses to these drivers. We argue that functional complementarity is the primary mechanism reducing community variability and promoting resilience and stability in the SCCS.

Gradual regime shifts in fairy circles

Large responses of ecosystems to small changes in the conditions--regime shifts--are of great interest and importance. In spatially extended ecosystems, these shifts may be local or global. Using empirical data and mathematical modeling, we investigated the dynamics of the Namibian fairy circle ecosystem as a case study of regime shifts in a pattern-forming ecosystem. Our results provide new support, based on the dynamics of the ecosystem, for the view of fairy circles as a self-organization phenomenon driven by water-vegetation interactions. The study further suggests that fairy circle birth and death processes correspond to spatially confined transitions between alternative stable states. Cascades of such transitions, possible in various pattern-forming systems, result in gradual rather than abrupt regime shifts.

Slowing down of North Pacific climate variability and its implications for abrupt ecosystem change

Marine ecosystems are sensitive to stochastic environmental variability, with higher-amplitude, lower-frequency--i.e., "redder"--variability posing a greater threat of triggering large ecosystem changes. Here we show that fluctuations in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index have slowed down markedly over the observational record (1900-present), as indicated by a robust increase in autocorrelation. This "reddening" of the spectrum of climate variability is also found in regionally averaged North Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and can be at least partly explained by observed deepening of the ocean mixed layer. The progressive reddening of North Pacific climate variability has important implications for marine ecosystems. Ecosystem variables that respond linearly to climate forcing will have become prone to much larger variations over the observational record, whereas ecosystem variables that respond nonlinearly to climate forcing will have become prone to more frequent "regime shifts." Thus, slowing down of North Pacific climate variability can help explain the large magnitude and potentially the quick succession of well-known abrupt changes in North Pacific ecosystems in 1977 and 1989. When looking ahead, despite model limitations in simulating mixed layer depth (MLD) in the North Pacific, global warming is robustly expected to decrease MLD. This could potentially reverse the observed trend of slowing down of North Pacific climate variability and its effects on marine ecosystems.

Climate and fishing steer ecosystem regeneration to uncertain economic futures

Overfishing of large predatory fish populations has resulted in lasting restructurings of entire marine food webs worldwide, with serious socio-economic consequences. Fortunately, some degraded ecosystems show signs of recovery. A key challenge for ecosystem management is to anticipate the degree to which recovery is possible. By applying a statistical food-web model, using the Baltic Sea as a case study, we show that under current temperature and salinity conditions, complete recovery of this heavily altered ecosystem will be impossible. Instead, the ecosystem regenerates towards a new ecological baseline. This new baseline is characterized by lower and more variable biomass of cod, the commercially most important fish stock in the Baltic Sea, even under very low exploitation pressure. Furthermore, a socio-economic assessment shows that this signal is amplified at the level of societal costs, owing to increased uncertainty in biomass and reduced consumer surplus. Specifically, the combined economic losses amount to approximately 120 million € per year, which equals half of today's maximum economic yield for the Baltic cod fishery. Our analyses suggest that shifts in ecological and economic baselines can lead to higher economic uncertainty and costs for exploited ecosystems, in particular, under climate change.

Marine regime shifts: drivers and impacts on ecosystems services

Marine ecosystems can experience regime shifts, in which they shift from being organized around one set of mutually reinforcing structures and processes to another. Anthropogenic global change has broadly increased a wide variety of processes that can drive regime shifts. To assess the vulnerability of marine ecosystems to such shifts and their potential consequences, we reviewed the scientific literature for 13 types of marine regime shifts and used networks to conduct an analysis of co-occurrence of drivers and ecosystem service impacts. We found that regime shifts are caused by multiple drivers and have multiple consequences that co-occur in a non-random pattern. Drivers related to food production, climate change and coastal development are the most common co-occurring causes of regime shifts, while cultural services, biodiversity and primary production are the most common cluster of ecosystem services affected. These clusters prioritize sets of drivers for management and highlight the need for coordinated actions across multiple drivers and scales to reduce the risk of marine regime shifts. Managerial strategies are likely to fail if they only address well-understood or data-rich variables, and international cooperation and polycentric institutions will be critical to implement and coordinate action across the scales at which different drivers operate. By better understanding these underlying patterns, we hope to inform the development of managerial strategies to reduce the risk of high-impact marine regime shifts, especially for areas of the world where data are not available or monitoring programmes are not in place.