Alcohol - a scoping review for Nordic Nutrition Recommendations 2023

The objective of this scoping review is to evaluate the updated evidence on the consumption of alcohol and health outcomes regarded as relevant for the Nordic and Baltic countries, including cardiovascular disease, cancer, and all-cause mortality. It is based on the previous Nordic Nutrition Recommendations of 2012 and relevant papers published until 31 May 2021. Current evidence from mainly observational epidemiological studies suggests that regular, moderate alcohol consumption may confer protective effects against myocardial infarction (MI) and type 2 diabetes. Mendelian randomization analyses do not fully support these findings, possibly because these analyses may fail to identify low alcohol intake. For several cancers, it is not possible to set any safe limit. All-cause mortality is not increased with light to moderate alcohol intake in middle-aged and older adults who do not engage in binge drinking. Total abstinence is associated with the lowest risk of mortality in young adults. Observational studies on alcohol consumption are hampered by a number of inherent methodological issues such as ascertainment of alcohol intake, selection of appropriate exposure groups, and insufficient control of confounding variables, colliders, and mediators. It should also be emphasized that there is a socio-economic contribution to the alcohol-health axis with a stronger detrimental effect of alcohol in the lower social classes. The above issues contribute to the complexity of unravelling the causal web between alcohol, mediators, confounders, and health outcome.

Association of Urine Albumin to Creatinine Ratio With Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

CONTEXT

The urinary albumin to creatinine ratio (UACR) is a widely used indicator of albuminuria and has predictive value for adverse cardiovascular events.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the correlation between the UACR and the risk of developing major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) and total mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

METHODS

This post hoc analysis included 10 171 participants from the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) study and the ACCORD follow-up study (ACCORDION) with baseline UACR data. The natural logarithm (ln) of each UACR measurement was calculated. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analyses were conducted to examine the association between the UACR and the risk of MACEs and total mortality. The additional predictive value of UACR was further evaluated. Similar methods were used to analyze the correlation between the UACR and MACEs and total mortality within the normal range.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up period of 8.83 years, 1808 (17.78%) participants experienced MACEs, and there were 1934 (19.01%) total deaths. After adjusting for traditional cardiovascular risk factors, the multivariate analysis revealed a significant association between the UACR and the risk of MACEs and total mortality. The inclusion of UACR in the conventional risk model enhanced the predictive efficacy for MACEs and total mortality.

CONCLUSION

An elevated UACR is associated with a higher risk of MACEs and total mortality in patients with T2DM, even when it falls within the normal range. The UACR improves prediction of MACE and total mortality risk in patients with T2DM.

The association of tadalafil exposure with lower rates of major adverse cardiovascular events and mortality in a general population of men with erectile dysfunction

BACKGROUND

Tadalafil is a long-acting phosphodiesterase-5 inhibitor (PDE-5i) indicated for erectile dysfunction (ED).

HYPOTHESIS

Our hypothesis was that tadalafil will reduce the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE: composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization, unstable angina, heart failure, stroke) and all-cause death in men with ED.

METHODS

A retrospective observational cohort study was conducted in a large US commercial insurance claims database in men with a diagnosis of ED without prior MACE within 1 year. The exposed group (n = 8156) had ≥1 claim for tadalafil; the unexposed group (n = 21 012) had no claims for any PDE-5i.

RESULTS

Primary outcome was MACE; secondary outcome was all-cause death. Groups were matched for cardiovascular risk factors, including preventive therapy. Over a mean follow-up of 37 months for the exposed group and 29 months for the unexposed group, adjusted rates of MACE were 19% lower in men exposed to tadalafil versus those unexposed to any PDE-5i (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.81; 95% confidence intervals [CI] = 0.70-0.94; p = .007). Tadalafil exposure was associated with lower adjusted rates of coronary revascularization (HR = 0.69; 95% CI = 0.52-0.90; p = .006); unstable angina (HR = 0.55; 95% CI = 0.37-0.81; p = .003); and cardiovascular-related mortality (HR = 0.45; CI = 0.22-0.93; p = .032). Overall mortality rate was 44% lower in men exposed to tadalafil (HR = 0.56; CI = 0.43-0.74; p < .001). Men in the highest quartile of tadalafil exposure had the lowest rates of MACE (HR: 0.40; 95% CI: 0.28-0.58; p < .001) compared to lowest exposure quartile.

CONCLUSION

In men with ED, exposure to tadalafil was associated with significant and clinically meaningful lower rates of MACE and overall mortality.

Blood pressure and cardiovascular risk in relation to birth weight and urinary sodium: an individual-participant meta-analysis of European family-based population studies

BACKGROUND

Although the relation of salt intake with blood pressure (BP) is linear, it is U-shaped for mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD). This individual-participant meta-analysis explored whether the relation of hypertension, death or CVD with 24-h urinary sodium excretion (UVNA) or sodium-to-potassium (UNAK) ratio was modified by birth weight.

METHODS

Families were randomly enrolled in the Flemish Study on Genes, Environment and Health Outcomes (1985-2004) and the European Project on Genes in Hypertension (1999-2001). Categories of birth weight, UVNA and UNAK (≤2500, >2500-4000, >4000 g; <2.3, 2.3-4.6 and >4.6 g; and <1, 1-2, >2, respectively) were coded using deviation-from-mean coding and analyzed by Kaplan-Meier survival functions and linear and Cox regression.

RESULTS

The study population was subdivided into the Outcome ( n  = 1945), Hypertension ( n  = 1460) and Blood Pressure cohorts ( n  = 1039) to analyze the incidence of mortality and cardiovascular endpoints, hypertension and BP changes as function of UVNA changes. The prevalence of low/medium/high birth weight in the Outcome cohort was 5.8/84.5/9.7%. Over 16.7 years (median), rates were 4.9, 8 and 27.1% for mortality, CVD and hypertension, respectively, but were not associated with birth weight. Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios were not significant for any endpoint in any of the birth weight, UVNA and UNAK strata. Adult body weight tracked with birth weight ( P  < 0.0001). The partial r in the low-birth-weight group associating changes from baseline to follow-up in UVNA and SBP was 0.68 ( P  = 0.023) but not significant in other birth weight groups.

CONCLUSION

This study did not substantiate its prior hypothesis but showed tracking of adult with birth weight and suggest that low birth weight increases salt sensitivity.

Consumption of Olive Oil and Risk of Total and Cause-Specific Mortality Among U.S. Adults

BACKGROUND

Olive oil consumption has been shown to lower cardiovascular disease risk, but its associations with total and cause-specific mortality are unclear.

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether olive oil intake is associated with total and cause-specific mortality in 2 prospective cohorts of U.S. men and women.

METHODS

The authors used multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional-hazards models to estimate HRs for total and cause-specific mortality among 60,582 women (Nurses' Health Study, 1990-2018) and 31,801 men (Health Professionals Follow-up Study, 1990-2018) who were free of cardiovascular disease or cancer at baseline. Diet was assessed by a semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire every 4 years.

RESULTS

During 28 years of follow-up, 36,856 deaths occurred. The multivariable-adjusted pooled HR for all-cause mortality among participants who had the highest consumption of olive oil (>0.5 tablespoon/day or >7 g/d) was 0.81 (95% CI: 0.78-0.84) compared with those who never or rarely consumed olive oil. Higher olive oil intake was associated with 19% lower risk of cardiovascular disease mortality (HR: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.75-0.87), 17% lower risk of cancer mortality (HR: 0.83; 95% CI: 0.78-0.89), 29% lower risk of neurodegenerative disease mortality (HR: 0.71; 95% CI: 0.64-0.78), and 18% lower risk of respiratory disease mortality (HR: 0.82; 95% CI: 0.72-0.93). In substitution analyses, replacing 10 g/d of margarine, butter, mayonnaise, and dairy fat with the equivalent amount of olive oil was associated with 8%-34% lower risk of total and cause-specific mortality. No significant associations were observed when olive oil was compared with other vegetable oils combined.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher olive oil intake was associated with lower risk of total and cause-specific mortality. Replacing margarine, butter, mayonnaise, and dairy fat with olive oil was associated with lower risk of mortality.

[Meta-analysis of the Impact of Different Ozone Metrics on Total Mortality in China]

This study explores the effect of different ozone metrics on the total mortality risk in China. Using the CNKI, Wanfang, VIP, Web of Science, and PubMed databases, the time series studies and case crossover studies from the establishment of each database to December 31, 2020 were retrieved, and 22 eligible studies were included in this analysis. A meta-analysis was performed for the ozone metrics of O_3-M1h, O_3-M8h, and O_3-24h. The results indicated that the increase in the total mortality risk is more closely associated with O_3-M1h (RR #, 1.0052; 95%CI, 1.0031-1.0073) and is more weakly associated with O_3-24h (RR #, 1.0036; 95%CI, 1.0025-1.0048) and O_3-M8h (RR #, 1.0031; 95%CI, 1.0022-1.0041). A subgroup analysis of the three metrics revealed that the total mortality risk of ozone is higher in the cold season, the elderly (≥ 65) are more vulnerable to ozone pollution, and the total mortality risk in the north is higher than that in the south.

Differential relationship between dietary fat and cholesterol on total mortality in Korean population cohorts

BACKGROUND

Associations among dietary fat, cholesterol intake and total mortality remain controversial, and most available data cover Western populations. The aim of this study was to assess associations for dietary fat and cholesterol in relation to total mortality in Koreans.

METHODS

This study used data from three prospective Korean Genome and Epidemiology studies (conducted between June 2001 and December 2013). A total of 194,295 middle-aged and older Korean adults were included. Dietary fat intake was classified into quintiles. Dietary cholesterol intake was categorized into three groups based on cholesterol intake as follows: <200 mg, 200-299 mg and ≥300 mg. A multivariable Cox frailty model with random effects was applied to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) after adjusting for confounders.

RESULTS

We documented 3866 deaths across a mean (min-max) follow-up period of 8.15 years (3-13 years). Higher fat intake was associated with lower total mortality (Q5 vs. Q1, HR 0.82 [95% CI 0.69, 0.98]; p trend < 0.01) after adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, alcohol, smoking, exercise and total calorie and protein (%) intake. Higher dietary cholesterol intake (≥300 mg/day) was associated with a higher risk of total mortality (HR 1.19 [95% CI 1.04, 1.37]) than lower cholesterol intake (<200 mg/day) in the multivariate model.

CONCLUSIONS

In Koreans, high dietary fat intake is associated with a lower risk of total mortality, while dietary cholesterol intake above 300 mg/day is associated with a higher risk of total mortality.

[Investigating the relationship between higher life functions, overall mortality, and incidence of care needs in long-term follow-up study of the local population: The Kamogawa Cohort Study]

Objectives　In addition to physical independence such as ADLs, higher-level functional capacity ("instrumental self-maintenance," "intellectual activity," and "social role") are necessary to lead the final stage of life as independently and for as long as possible. Accordingly, in a long-term follow-up study of the local population, we examined the association of health status (total mortality and incidence of care needs) with instrumental independence, intellectual activity, and social role.Methods　We used participant data from the Kamogawa cohort study, which included surveyed use of health service, health status, disease prevalence, and use of long-term care insurance service for Kamogawa citizens in Chiba prefecture from 2003 to 2013. We compared the differences in lifestyle and higher-level functional capacity, by status of death and using the Long-term Care Insurance service. Higher-level functional capacity was assessed with the Tokyo Metropolitan Institute of Gerontology-Index of Competence (TMIG-IC); answer to each question, each domain score, and total score were examined.Results　During the follow-up period to the end of March 2013, 810 deaths and 917 care needs were observed among the 6,503 people who consented to be followed up. The adjusted HR of higher-level functional capacity for all-cause mortality was "instrumental self-maintenance," score 4 or 5 to less than 3: 2.03 (95%CI: 1.59-2.60), "intellectual activity," score 4 to less than 3: 1.39 (95%CI: 1.09-1.77), and "social role," score 4 to less than 3: 1.28 (95%CI: 1.03-1.59). In subgroup analyses by sex, "instrumental self-maintenance" was associated with both men and women, but "intellectual activity" and "social roles" were associated with women only. The adjusted HRs for the incidence of care needs were 1.93 (95%CI: 1.55-2.40) for "instrumental self-maintenance" and 1.30 (95%CI: 1.07-1.58) for "social role." In subgroup analyses by sex, "instrumental self-maintenance" was associated with both genders, but "social role" was observed only for women.Conclusion　Higher-level functional capacity ("instrumental self-maintenance," "intellectual activity," and "social role") was significantly associated with total mortality and incidence of care needs.

Growth Differentiation Factor-15 as a Potent Predictor of Long-Term Mortality among Subjects with Osteoarthritis

Background: Subjects with osteoarthritis (OA) are at increased risk for cardiovascular (CV) and all-cause mortality. Whether biomarkers improve outcome prediction in these patients remains to be elucidated. We investigated the association between growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15), a novel stress-responsive cytokine, and long-term all-cause mortality among OA patients. Methods: Within the Ulm Osteoarthritis Study, GDF-15 has been measured in the serum of 636 subjects, who underwent hip or knee arthroplasty between 1995 and 1996 (median age 65 years). Results: During a median follow-up of 19.7 years, a total of 402 deaths occurred. GDF-15 was inversely associated with walking distance. Compared to the bottom quartile (Q), subjects within the top quartile of GDF-15 demonstrated a 2.69-fold increased risk of dying (hazard ratio (HR) (95% confidence interval (CI)) 2.69 (1.82–3.96) adjusted for age, sex, BMI, smoking status, localization of OA, diabetes, maximum walking distance, total cholesterol, and cystatin C. Further adjustment for NT-proBNP, troponin I, and hs-C-reactive protein did not change the results appreciably (HR (95%CI) 1.56 (1.07–2.28); 1.75 (1.21–2.55); 2.32 (1.55–3.47) for Q2, Q3, and Q4 respectively, p for trend < 0.001). Conclusions: In subjects with OA, GDF-15 represents a potent predictor of decreased survival over >20 years, independently of conventional CV risk factors, renal, cardiac, and inflammatory biomarkers as well as walking disability, previously associated with increased mortality and lower extremity OA.

A Greater Flavonoid Intake Is Associated with Lower Total and Cause-Specific Mortality: A Meta-Analysis of Cohort Studies

Introduction: The links between flavonoid intake and mortality were previously evaluated in epidemiological studies. The aim of the present study was to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies evaluating the link of flavonoid consumption with total and cause-specific mortality. Methods: Prospective cohort studies reporting flavonoid intake and mortality data published up to 30th April 2019 (without language restriction) were searched using PubMed, Scopus and EMBASE database. Generic inverse variance methods and random effects models were used to synthesize pooled and quantitative data. Sensitivity analysis was also performed by a leave-one-out method. Results: Overall, 16 articles met the inclusion criteria (nine studies were performed in Europe, five in the USA, one in Asia and one in Oceania); a total of 462,194 participants (all adults aged >19 years) with 23,473 mortality cases were included in the final analysis. The duration of follow-up ranged from 4.8 to 28 years. Most of the studies assessed flavonoid intake using food frequency questionnaires, whereas four studies used interviews and 1 study used 4-day food records. The meta-analysis showed that flavonoid consumption was inversely and significantly associated with total (relative risk (RR): 0.87, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.77–0.99) and cardiovascular disease mortality risk (RR: 0.85, 95%CI = 0.75–0.97), but not cancer (0.86, 95%CI = 0.65–1.14) mortality risk. These findings remained robust in sensitivity analyses. Conclusions: The present findings highlight the potential protective role of flavonoids against total and cause-specific mortality. These results support the recommendations for flavonoid-rich foods intake to prevent chronic diseases.

Long-term clinical effects of recanalization of chronic coronary total occlusions in patients with left ventricular systolic dysfunction

OBJECTIVES

The aim of the present analysis is to evaluate the clinical impact of chronic total occlusions (CTOs) recanalization in patients with left ventricular (LV) systolic dysfunction.

BACKGROUND

According to contemporary knowledge, patient selection for percutaneous CTO revascularization is not yet standardized. In particular, data on outcomes in patients with LV systolic dysfunction undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for CTO are scarce.

METHODS

From a total of 2,421 consecutive patients with at least one CTO, 436 patients with ejection fraction (EF) ≤45%, who were referred for coronary angiography between January 1998 and September 2014, were selected. Patients with successful recanalization of the target CTO were assigned to CTO-revascularized group and those with failed or not attempted recanalization to the CTO-not revascularized (CTO-NR) group. Study endpoints were all-cause death, cardiac death, and occurrence of myocardial infarction on follow-up.

RESULTS

Out of 436 CTO patients with reduced EF, 228 (52.3%) were successfully recanalized and 208 patients (47.7%) were not, either due to CTO-PCI failure (n = 106, 24.3%) or because CTO-PCI was not attempted (n = 102, 23.4%). At long-term follow-up, CTO-NR patients had significantly higher rate of overall (p = .021) and cardiac mortality (p = .035) compared to those successfully revascularized.

CONCLUSION

In patients with systolic LV dysfunction (EF ≤ 45%), CTO revascularization was associated with significant lower rate of total and cardiac mortality compared to those with nonrevascularized CTO.

Daylight Saving Time Transitions: Impact on Total Mortality

In Europe and many countries worldwide, a half-yearly changing time scheme has been adopted with the aim of optimizing the use of natural daylight during working hours and saving energy. Because the expected net economic benefit was not achieved, the discussion about the optimal solution has been reopened with a shifted focus on social and health related consequences. We set out to produce evidence for this discussion and analysed the impact of daylight saving time on total mortality of a general population in a time series study on daily total mortality for the years 1970–2018 in the city of Vienna, Austria. Daily deaths were modelled by Poisson regression controlling for seasonal and long-term trend, same-day and 14-day average temperature, humidity, and day of week. During the week after the spring transition a significant increase in daily total mortality of about 3% per day was observed. This was not the case during the week after the fall transition. The increase in daily mortality as observed in the week after spring DST-transition is most likely causally linked to the change in time scheme.

Ratio of Transmitral E Wave Velocity to Left Atrial Strain as a Useful Predictor of Total and Cardiovascular Mortality in Hemodialysis Patients

The ratio of transmitral E-wave velocity (E) to a left ventricular diastolic parameter is reported to be well correlated with left ventricular filling pressure and is useful in the prediction of mortality. Left atrial (LA) strain has been demonstrated to be associated with left ventricular diastolic function. The aim of the study is to examine the ability of E/LA strain in predicting total and cardiovascular mortality in hemodialysis (HD) patients. In 197 routine HD patients, global LA strain during the reservoir phase was estimated by taking the average of longitudinal strain data obtained from the apical four-chamber and two chamber views by two-dimensional speckle tracking echocardiography. Twenty-nine total mortality and 14 cardiovascular mortality were documented during the 2.7 ± 0.6-year follow-up. After adjusting age, comorbidities, albumin, E/early diastolic mitral annular velocity (Ea), and LA strain, increased E/LA strain (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.191, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.072-1.324, p = 0.001) was still associated with increased total mortality. After adjusting age, comorbidities, albumin, E/Ea, left ventricular ejection fraction, and LA strain, increased E/LA strain (HR = 1.195, 95% CI = 1.041-1.372, p = 0.011) was still associated with increased cardiovascular mortality. In conclusion, E/LA strain is a useful parameter in the prediction of total and cardiovascular mortality in HD patients. Hence, E/LA strain deserves to be calculated in HD patients for better survival prediction.

The Effect of Transplant Volume and Patient Case Mix on Center Variation in Kidney Transplantation Outcomes

Background

Kidney transplantation is the optimal treatment for patients with end-stage renal disease; however, long-term outcomes remain suboptimal.

Objective

The objectives of our study were to examine the variation in survival rates and determine whether center volume and case mix are associated with transplant outcomes and explain the variation across kidney transplant centers in Ontario, Canada.

Design

This was a population-based cohort study using health care administrative databases.

Setting

A total of 5 transplant centers across Ontario, Canada.

Patients

We included adults (≥18 years) undergoing primary, solitary kidney transplantation between January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2013.

Measurements

The co-primary outcomes were death-censored graft loss and total mortality.

Methods

Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess potential associations and describe variation, using hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for each center relative to the average across all centers.

Results

The study cohort included 5037 patients followed for a median of 5.3 years, interquartile range (2.7-8.6). In multivariable models, recipient age, body mass index, Charlson Index, time on dialysis, donor type, and age were found to be significantly associated with death-censored graft loss, and recipient age and sex, Charlson Index, time on dialysis, donor age, and time era of transplant were associated with total mortality. There was statistically significant variation across centers observed for death-censored graft loss (P = .04) with HRs ranging from 0.72 to 1.22. However, neither adjusting for case mix nor center volume meaningfully changed the HRs reflecting each center-specific effect. There was a tendency toward reduced risk of graft loss (HR, per additional 25 patients, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.78-1.04]) in centers with higher volumes. For total mortality, there was statistically significant variation across centers with HRs ranging from 0.82 to 1.13 (P = .04); however, neither adjusting for case mix or center volume meaningfully changed the HRs. Center volume was not significantly associated with total mortality (HR, per additional 25 patients, 1.04 [95% CI, 0.90-1.20]).

Limitations

This study was limited by the small number of centers included.

Conclusions

Outcomes differ across the 5 transplant centers in Ontario. We did not find any strong support for our hypotheses that case mix or center volume is responsible for these differences.

Elevated levels of serum nitrite and nitrate, NOx, are associated with increased total and cardiovascular mortality in an 8-year follow-up study

BACKGROUND

Nitric oxide (NO) is one of the key regulators of vascular function. Abnormal NO signalling is linked to various cardiovascular diseases. We studied associations between circulating levels of NO metabolites, nitrite and nitrate (NOx) and total and cardiovascular mortality in a prospective 8-year follow-up cohort study in 1869 patients aged over 55 years.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The Cox proportional hazard ratio (HR) regression models were adjusted for multiple risk-related variables. Post hoc Kaplan-Meier survival curves were compared by the Log-rank test.

RESULTS

Proportional Cox regression analysis demonstrated that high serum levels of NOx over 70 µmol/L were associated with elevated total mortality (HR 1.4; 95% CI: 1.06-1.80; P = 0.02) and cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.4; 95% CI: 0.98-1.98; P = 0.03) when HR was adjusted for age, sex, smoking and urinary creatinine. Additional adjustments for various mortality-associated baseline comorbidities did not influence associations of elevated NOx with total and cardiovascular mortality. Association of elevated NOx with total mortality persisted in the multivariate regression model combining a number of other characteristics while association of NOx with cardiovascular mortality became non-significant in the multivariate model. Specific subset of patients contributing to these associations was determined by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis indicating that cardiovascular and total mortality were increased in men with high serum levels of NOx over 70 µmol/L (Log-rank test P = 0.01). These associations were not observed in women.

CONCLUSION

Elevated concentrations of serum NOx over 70 µmol/L can be used to predict mortality in men over 55 years of age.

Age at death in cohorts of middle-aged men followed-up until nearly extinction: the European areas of the Seven Countries Study

OBJECTIVES

To describe age at death (AD) in ten cohorts of middle-aged men followed-up until nearly extinction as a function of personal characteristics measured at baseline.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Cohorts of men aged 40-59 years in five European countries (Finland, the Netherlands, Italy, Serbia, Greece) were examined and then followed-up for mortality during 45 (3 cohorts) or 50 years (7 cohorts). Multiple linear regression (MLR) models were computed with AD as dependent variable and 35 personal characteristics as independent variables.

RESULTS

Out of 7047 men, 6798 (96.5%) died in 45-50 years. Average AD was 74.4 (median 75) years. Only five variables were significant in all the five countries when tested by MLR. By pooling together all countries and selecting variables by a stepwise technique, 20 were significant (p < .05): age at entry examination, being married, being a never smoker or an ex-smoker (versus current smokers), forced expiratory volume, high socio-economic status, arm circumference, subscapular skinfold, having moderate or vigorous physical activity (all with a positive relationship with AD); father early mortality, laterality/linearity index, high systolic blood pressure, high serum cholesterol, having a major cardiovascular disease, diabetes or chronic bronchitis (these with a negative relationship), while body mass index, subdivided into four classes, showed a parabolic relationship (versus a reference class). Each factor was associated with a difference of months or a few years to AD, while their combinations were associated with several years of greater or smaller AD.

CONCLUSIONS

The availability of a relatively small number of risk factors measured in middle-aged men allows making rough estimates of AD as related to all-cause mortality during a follow-up of 50 years. AD is also a valuable metrics to describe past health in nearly extinct populations. Key messages We aimed at studying the age at death (AD) of middle-aged men of the European cohorts of the Seven Countries Study, followed-up 45-50 years until nearly extinction, as a function of personal characteristics measured at baseline. Multiple linear regression (MLR) models were computed with AD as dependent variable and 35 personal characteristics or risk factors as independent variables and only five were significant in all individual countries, whereas pooling together all countries, 20 variables were significant as selected by stepwise MLR. Each factor was associated with differences of months or a few years to AD, while their combinations were associated with several years of greater or smaller AD. AD is a valuable metrics to describe past health in nearly extinct populations: it might also be used to communicate years of life gained by preventive measures on modifiable variables.

White Blood Cell Count and Total and Cause-Specific Mortality in the Women's Health Initiative

White blood cell (WBC) count appears to predict total mortality and coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality, but it is unclear to what extent the association reflects confounding by smoking, underlying illness, or comorbid conditions. We used data from the Women's Health Initiative to examine the associations of WBC count with total mortality, CHD mortality, and cancer mortality. WBC count was measured at baseline in 160,117 postmenopausal women and again in year 3 in 74,375 participants. Participants were followed for a mean of 16 years. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the relative mortality hazards associated with deciles of baseline WBC count and of the mean of baseline + year 3 WBC count. High deciles of both baseline and mean WBC count were positively associated with total mortality and CHD mortality, whereas the association with cancer mortality was weaker. The association of WBC count with mortality was independent of smoking and did not appear to be influenced by previous disease history. The potential clinical utility of this common laboratory test in predicting mortality risk warrants further study.

Association of Hemoglobin Concentration With Total and Cause-Specific Mortality in a Cohort of Postmenopausal Women

Anemia and low and high levels of hemoglobin have been associated with increased mortality and morbidity. However, most studies have measured hemoglobin at only 1 time point, and few studies have considered possible reverse causation. We used data from the Women's Health Initiative, in which baseline hemoglobin was measured in 160,081 postmenopausal women and year 3 hemoglobin was measured in 75,658 participants, to examine the associations of hemoglobin concentration with total mortality, coronary heart disease mortality, and cancer mortality. Women were enrolled from 1993 to 1998 and followed for a median of 16 years. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the relative mortality hazards associated with deciles of baseline hemoglobin and the mean of baseline + year 3 hemoglobin. Both low and high deciles of baseline hemoglobin were positively associated with all 3 outcomes in the total cohort. In analyses restricted to women with 2 measurements, a low mean hemoglobin level was robustly and positively associated with all 3 outcomes, after exclusion of the early years of follow-up. High mean hemoglobin was also associated with increased risk of total mortality, whereas associations with heart disease mortality and cancer mortality were weaker and inconsistent. Our results provide evidence that low and high levels of hemoglobin are associated with increased risk of mortality in otherwise healthy women.

Suggested Cut-Off Values for Vitamin D as a Risk Marker for Total and Cardiac Death in Patients with Suspected Acute Coronary Syndrome

Background

Several studies have demonstrated an association between low vitamin D levels and cardiovascular risk. Vitamin D cut-off levels are still under debate.

Objectives

To assess two cut-off levels, 40 and 70 nmol/L, respectively, for vitamin D measured as 25-hydroxyvitamin D in chest pain patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome.

Methods

We investigated 1853 patients from coastal-Norway and inland Northern-Argentina. A similar database was used for pooling of data. Two-year follow-up data including all-cause mortality, cardiac death, and sudden cardiac death in the total patient population were analyzed, applying univariate and multivariable analysis.

Results

Two hundred fifty-five patients with known vitamin D concentrations died. In the multivariable analysis, there was a decrease in total mortality above a cut-off level of 40 nmol/L and a decrease in cardiac death above a cut-off level of 70 nmol/L [HRs of 0.66 (95% CI, 0.50–0.88), p = 0.004 and 0.46 (95% CI, 0.22–0.94), p = 0.034, respectively].

Conclusion

Vitamin D cut-off levels of 40 and 70 nmol/L were related to total mortality and cardiac death, respectively.

Borderline Values of Troponin-T and High Sensitivity C-Reactive Protein Did Not Predict 2-Year Mortality in TnT Positive Chest-Pain Patients, Whereas Brain Natriuretic Peptide Did

Background

Troponin-T (TnT), high-sensitive C-reactive protein (hsCRP), and Brain Natriuretic Peptide (BNP) have been shown to be independent prognostic indicators of total and cardiac death during short- and long-term follow-up.

Methods

We investigated prospectively the prognostic value of admission samples of TnT, hsCRP, and BNP in 871 chest-pain patients from South-Western Norway and 982 patients from Northern Argentina, based on a similar protocol and database setup. Follow-up was 2 years for the pooled population. The prognostic value of the selected biomarkers was investigated in quartiles of 239 patients with TnT values greater than 0.01 and up to and including 0.1 ng/mL, with continuous TnT as a potential confounder.

Results

After 24 months, 69 patients had died, of whom 38 died from cardiac causes. In the selected range of TnT, this biomarker was not significantly different between patients who died and survived (mean 0.0452 and 0.0457, p = 0.887). The BNP levels were significantly higher among patients dying than in long-term survivors [340 (142–656) versus 157 (58–367) pg/mL (median, 25 and 75% percentiles), p < 0.001]. In a multivariable Cox regression model for death within 2 years, the hazard ratio (HR) for BNP in the highest quartile (Q4) as compared to the lowest (Q1) was significantly related to total mortality [HR 2.84 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.13–7.17)], p = 0.027, in addition to age (p ≤ 0.001) and hypercholesterolemia (p = 0.043). For cardiac death, the HR for BNP was 5.18 (95% CI, 1.06–25.3), p = 0.042. Several other variables (age, congestive heart failure, ST elevation myocardial infarction, and study country) were also significantly related to cardiac death. In a multivariable Cox regression model, hsCRP rendered no significant prognostic information for all-cause mortality (p = 0.089) or for cardiac mortality (p = 0.524).

Conclusion

In patients with borderline TnT values (greater than 0.01 and up to and including 0.1 ng/mL), this biomarker as well as hsCRP did not render prognostic information, whereas BNP was found to be a strong prognostic indicator of 2-year total and cardiac mortality.

The impact of extremely high temperatures on mortality and mortality cost

The aim of this study was to determine the temperature threshold that triggers an increase in heat-induced mortality in Zaragoza, Spain to determine the impact of extreme heat on mortality and in-hospital cost. A longitudinal ecological study was conducted according to an autoregressive integrated moving average model of a time series for daily deaths and to determine the relative risk of mortality for each degree that the temperature threshold was exceeded. Mortality showed a statistically significant increase when the daily maximum temperature exceeded 38 °C. A Relative Risk was 1.28 with a 95 % confidence interval (95 %CI:1.08-1.57) This threshold temperature didn't change over time. A total of 107 (95 %CI:42-173) heat-attributable deaths were estimated for the period 2002-2006, and the in-hospital estimated cost of these deaths reach € 426,087(95 %CI.€ 167,249-€ 688,907). The articulation of preventive measures to minimize the impact of extreme heat on human health is necessary because of the mortality-temperature relationship.

Plasma phospholipid trans-fatty acids levels, cardiovascular diseases, and total mortality: the cardiovascular health study

BACKGROUND

While self-reported trans-fatty acid (TFA) consumption is linked to coronary heart disease (CHD), relationships between objective biomarkers of TFA subtypes (t-16:1n9, total t-18:1, and cis/trans-(c/t-), t/c- and t/t-18:2) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) or total mortality are not well established.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We evaluated 2742 adults in the Cardiovascular Health Study, aged 74±5 years and free of prevalent CVD, with plasma phospholipid TFA measures in 1992. Incident fatal and nonfatal CHD events, CVD and non-CVD mortality, and total mortality were centrally adjudicated through 2010. Risks were assessed using Cox proportional hazards. During 31 494 person-years, 1735 total deaths and 639 total CHD events occurred. In the multivariate model including mutual adjustment for the 5 TFA subtypes, circulating t/t-18:2 was associated with higher total mortality (extreme quintile hazard ratio (HR)=1.23, 95% CI=1.04 to 1.44, P-trend=0.01), CVD mortality (HR=1.40, 95% CI=1.05 to 1.86, P-trend=0.02), and total CHD (HR=1.39, 95% CI=1.06 to 1.83, P-trend=0.01). t/c-18:2 was positively related to total mortality (HR=1.19, P-trend=0.05), total CHD (HR=1.67, P-trend=0.002), and nonfatal CHD (HR=2.06, P-trend=0.002) after mutual adjustment; these associations were insignificant without mutual adjustment. Neither t-16:1n9 nor t-18:1 was significantly associated with total mortality or CVD, nor was c/t-18:2 if we excluded early cases.

CONCLUSIONS

Among circulating TFAs, t/t-18:2 was most adversely associated with total mortality, mainly due to the increased risk of CVD. t/c-18:2 was also positively associated with total mortality and CHD, but only after adjustment for other TFAs. These results highlight the need for further investigation of dietary sources, nondietary determinants, and health effects of specific TFA subtypes, especially t-18:2 isomers.

Coronary heart disease risks associated with high levels of HDL cholesterol

Background

The association between high‐density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL‐C) and coronary heart disease (CHD) events is not well described in individuals with very high levels of HDL‐C (>80 mg/dL).

Methods and Results

Using pooled data from 6 community‐based cohorts we examined CHD and total mortality risks across a broad range of HDL‐C, including values in excess of 80 mg/dL. We used Cox proportional hazards models with penalized splines to assess multivariable, adjusted, sex‐stratified associations of HDL‐C with the hazard for CHD events and total mortality, using HDL‐C 45 mg/dL and 55 mg/dL as the referent in men and women, respectively. Analyses included 11 515 men and 12 925 women yielding 307 245 person‐years of follow‐up. In men, the association between HDL‐C and CHD events was inverse and linear across most HDL‐C values; however at HDL‐C values >90 mg/dL there was a plateau effect in the pattern of association. In women, the association between HDL‐C and CHD events was inverse and linear across lower values of HDL‐C, however at HDL‐C values >75 mg/dL there were no further reductions in the hazard ratio point estimates for CHD. In unadjusted models there were increased total mortality risks in men with very high HDL‐C, however mortality risks observed in participants with very high HDL‐C were attenuated after adjustment for traditional risk factors.

Conclusions

We did not observe further reductions in CHD risk with HDL‐C values higher than 90 mg/dL in men and 75 mg/dL in women.

Traffic air pollution and mortality from cardiovascular disease and all causes: a Danish cohort study

BACKGROUND

Traffic air pollution has been linked to cardiovascular mortality, which might be due to co-exposure to road traffic noise. Further, personal and lifestyle characteristics might modify any association.

METHODS

We followed up 52 061 participants in a Danish cohort for mortality in the nationwide Register of Causes of Death, from enrollment in 1993-1997 through 2009, and traced their residential addresses from 1971 onwards in the Central Population Registry. We used dispersion-modelled concentration of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) since 1971 as indicator of traffic air pollution and used Cox regression models to estimate mortality rate ratios (MRRs) with adjustment for potential confounders.

RESULTS

Mean levels of NO₂ at the residence since 1971 were significantly associated with mortality from cardiovascular disease (MRR, 1.26; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06-1.51, per doubling of NO₂ concentration) and all causes (MRR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.04-1.23, per doubling of NO₂ concentration) after adjustment for potential confounders. For participants who ate < 200 g of fruit and vegetables per day, the MRR was 1.45 (95% CI, 1.13-1.87) for mortality from cardiovascular disease and 1.25 (95% CI, 1.11-1.42) for mortality from all causes.

CONCLUSIONS

Traffic air pollution is associated with mortality from cardiovascular diseases and all causes, after adjustment for traffic noise. The association was strongest for people with a low fruit and vegetable intake.

Health outcomes after stopping conjugated equine estrogens among postmenopausal women with prior hysterectomy: a randomized controlled trial

CONTEXT

The Women's Health Initiative Estrogen-Alone Trial was stopped early after a mean of 7.1 years of follow-up because of an increased risk of stroke and little likelihood of altering the balance of risk to benefit by the planned trial termination date. Postintervention health outcomes have not been reported.

OBJECTIVE

To examine health outcomes associated with randomization to treatment with conjugated equine estrogens (CEE) among women with prior hysterectomy after a mean of 10.7 years of follow-up through August 2009.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

The intervention phase was a double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized clinical trial of 0.625 mg/d of CEE compared with placebo in 10,739 US postmenopausal women aged 50 to 79 years with prior hysterectomy. Follow-up continued after the planned trial completion date among 7645 surviving participants (78%) who provided written consent.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcomes were coronary heart disease (CHD) and invasive breast cancer. A global index of risks and benefits included these primary outcomes plus stroke, pulmonary embolism, colorectal cancer, hip fracture, and death.

RESULTS

The postintervention risk (annualized rate) for CHD among women assigned to CEE was 0.64% compared with 0.67% in the placebo group (hazard ratio [HR], 0.97; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.75-1.25), 0.26% vs 0.34%, respectively, for breast cancer (HR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.51-1.09), and 1.47% vs 1.48%, respectively, for total mortality (HR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.84-1.18). The risk of stroke was no longer elevated during the postintervention follow-up period and was 0.36% among women receiving CEE compared with 0.41% in the placebo group (HR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.64-1.24), the risk of deep vein thrombosis was lower at 0.17% vs 0.27%, respectively (HR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.41-0.98), and the risk of hip fracture did not differ significantly and was 0.36% vs 0.28%, respectively (HR, 1.27; 95% CI, 0.88-1.82). Over the entire follow-up, lower breast cancer incidence in the CEE group persisted and was 0.27% compared with 0.35% in the placebo group (HR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.62-0.95). Health outcomes were more favorable for younger compared with older women for CHD (P = .05 for interaction), total myocardial infarction (P = .007 for interaction), colorectal cancer (P = .04 for interaction), total mortality (P = .04 for interaction), and global index of chronic diseases (P = .009 for interaction).

CONCLUSIONS

Among postmenopausal women with prior hysterectomy followed up for 10.7 years, CEE use for a median of 5.9 years was not associated with an increased or decreased risk of CHD, deep vein thrombosis, stroke, hip fracture, colorectal cancer, or total mortality. A decreased risk of breast cancer persisted.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00000611.