A novel scoring system for prediction of esophageal varices in critically ill patients

Background and aims

Patients with advanced systemic illness or critically ill patients may present with upper gastrointestinal tract (GIT) bleeding which may need endoscopic intervention; however, this may expose them to unnecessary endoscopy. The aim was to validate a novel scoring system for risk stratification for urgency of GIT endoscopy in critically ill patients.

Methods

This is an observational study conducted from January 2013 to January 2016 to analyze 300 patients with critical medical conditions and presenting with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Meticulous clinical, laboratory, and sonographic evaluations were performed to calculate Glasgow Blatchford score (GBS) and variceal metric score for risk stratification and prediction of the presence of esophageal varices (OV). Finally, this score was applied on a validation group (n=100).

Results

The use of GBS and variceal metric scores in critically ill patients revealed that patients who showed a low risk score value for OV (0-4 points) and GBS <2 can be treated conservatively and discharged safely without urgent endoscopy. In patients with a low risk for varices but GBS >2, none of them had OV on endoscopy. In patients with intermediate risk score value for OV (5-8 points) and with GBS >2, 33.33% of them had varices on endoscopy. In patients with high risk score value for varices (9-13) and GBS >2, endoscopy revealed varices in 94.4% of them. Finally, in patients with very high risk score for varices (14-17), endoscopy revealed varices in 100% of them.

Conclusion

GBS and variceal metric score were highly efficacious in identifying critically ill patients who will benefit from therapeutic endoscopic intervention.

Efficacy and safety of sofosbuvir plus ribavirin for treatment of cirrhotic patients with genotype 4 hepatitis C virus in real-life clinical practice

Egypt has the highest hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence in the world. Sofosbuvir is a new highly effective drug for treatment of HCV infection. Compared to previous treatments, sofosbuvir-based regimens provide a higher cure rate, fewer side effects, and a two- to fourfold reduced duration of therapy. The aim of this study was to evaluate the antiviral efficacy, safety, and tolerability of sofosbuvir plus ribavirin in Egyptian patients with liver cirrhosis due to chronic HCV infection. We studied 2400 cirrhotic Egyptian patients with chronic HCV infection who were treated with dual therapy with sofosbuvir and ribavirin for 24 weeks. Efficacy was determined by assessment of serum HCV RNA. Any adverse events during treatment were recorded. Two thousand four hundred cirrhotic Egyptian patients with chronic HCV infection treated with sofosbuvir and ribavirin for 24 weeks were enrolled in the study. The mean age of the studied group (± SD) was 53.9 ± 6.5 years, 1549 (64.54%) were males, all were cirrhotic patients, 3.41% were treatment-experienced, the baseline mean HCV RNA concentration was 4.33 × 10⁶ IU/mL, and 94.37% of the patients had completed the full course of therapy. The overall SVR12 rate was 71.2%. The most common adverse events were fatigue, myalgia, headache, insomnia, and anemia. One hundred thirty-five (5.63%) patients stopped treatment permanently due to the appearance of complications that prevented continuation of treatment. The sofosbuvir and ribavirin combination is safe and effective in treatment of HCV patients with liver cirrhosis. However, further studies are needed to establish the optimal treatment regimen for those cases.

Randomized controlled study of a novel triple nitazoxanide (NTZ)-containing therapeutic regimen versus the traditional regimen for eradication of Helicobacter pylori infection

BACKGROUND

Helicobacter pylori infection has become more and more resistant to conventional first-line treatment regimens. So, there is a considerable interest in evaluating new antibiotic combinations and regimens. Nitazoxanide is an anti-infective drug with demonstrated activity against protozoa and anaerobic bacteria including H. pylori. This work is designed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of a unique triple nitazoxanide-containing regimen as a treatment regimen in Egyptian patients with H. pylori infection.

METHODS

Two hundred and 24 patients with upper gastrointestinal tract (GIT) dyspeptic symptoms in whom H. pylori -induced GIT disease was confirmed were included in the study. They have been randomized to receive either nitazoxanide 500 mg b.i.d., clarithromycin 500 mg b.i.d., and omeprazole 40 mg twice daily for 14 days or metronidazole 500 mg b.i.d., clarithromycin 500 mg b.i.d., and omeprazole 40  mg twice daily for 14 days. Laboratory evaluation for H. pylori antigen within the stool was performed 6 weeks after cessation of H. pylori treatment regimens to assess the response.

RESULTS

The response to treatment was significantly higher in group 1 of nitazoxanide treatment regimen than group 2 of traditional treatment regimen. One hundred and six cases (94.6%) of 112 patients who completed the study in group 1 showed complete cure, while only 63 cases (60.6%) of 104 patients who completed the study in group 2 showed the same response according to per-protocol (PP) analysis (P<.001). The regimen was well tolerated by all the patients enrolled in the study.

CONCLUSION

Nitazoxanide-containing triple therapy is a promising therapy for the first-line eradication of H. pylori. (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02422706).

Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

Monitoring levels and trends in premature mortality is crucial to understanding how societies can address prominent sources of early death. The Global Burden of Disease 2016 Study (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 264 causes in 195 locations from 1980 to 2016. This assessment includes evaluation of the expected epidemiological transition with changes in development and where local patterns deviate from these trends.

METHODS

We estimated cause-specific deaths and years of life lost (YLLs) by age, sex, geography, and year. YLLs were calculated from the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. We used the GBD cause of death database composed of: vital registration (VR) data corrected for under-registration and garbage coding; national and subnational verbal autopsy (VA) studies corrected for garbage coding; and other sources including surveys and surveillance systems for specific causes such as maternal mortality. To facilitate assessment of quality, we reported on the fraction of deaths assigned to GBD Level 1 or Level 2 causes that cannot be underlying causes of death (major garbage codes) by location and year. Based on completeness, garbage coding, cause list detail, and time periods covered, we provided an overall data quality rating for each location with scores ranging from 0 stars (worst) to 5 stars (best). We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to generate estimates for each location, year, age, and sex. We assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific deaths in relation to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of average income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility, with locations grouped into quintiles by SDI. Relative to GBD 2015, we expanded the GBD cause hierarchy by 18 causes of death for GBD 2016.

FINDINGS

The quality of available data varied by location. Data quality in 25 countries rated in the highest category (5 stars), while 48, 30, 21, and 44 countries were rated at each of the succeeding data quality levels. Vital registration or verbal autopsy data were not available in 27 countries, resulting in the assignment of a zero value for data quality. Deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represented 72·3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 71·2-73·2) of deaths in 2016 with 19·3% (18·5-20·4) of deaths in that year occurring from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases and a further 8·43% (8·00-8·67) from injuries. Although age-standardised rates of death from NCDs decreased globally between 2006 and 2016, total numbers of these deaths increased; both numbers and age-standardised rates of death from CMNN causes decreased in the decade 2006-16-age-standardised rates of deaths from injuries decreased but total numbers varied little. In 2016, the three leading global causes of death in children under-5 were lower respiratory infections, neonatal preterm birth complications, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma, combined resulting in 1·80 million deaths (95% UI 1·59 million to 1·89 million). Between 1990 and 2016, a profound shift toward deaths at older ages occurred with a 178% (95% UI 176-181) increase in deaths in ages 90-94 years and a 210% (208-212) increase in deaths older than age 95 years. The ten leading causes by rates of age-standardised YLL significantly decreased from 2006 to 2016 (median annualised rate of change was a decrease of 2·89%); the median annualised rate of change for all other causes was lower (a decrease of 1·59%) during the same interval. Globally, the five leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were cardiovascular diseases; diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; neoplasms; neonatal disorders; and HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. At a finer level of disaggregation within cause groupings, the ten leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, road injuries, malaria, neonatal preterm birth complications, HIV/AIDS, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of total YLLs in 113 countries for men and 97 countries for women. Comparisons of observed levels of YLLs by countries, relative to the level of YLLs expected on the basis of SDI alone, highlighted distinct regional patterns including the greater than expected level of YLLs from malaria and from HIV/AIDS across sub-Saharan Africa; diabetes mellitus, especially in Oceania; interpersonal violence, notably within Latin America and the Caribbean; and cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, particularly in eastern and central Europe. The level of YLLs from ischaemic heart disease was less than expected in 117 of 195 locations. Other leading causes of YLLs for which YLLs were notably lower than expected included neonatal preterm birth complications in many locations in both south Asia and southeast Asia, and cerebrovascular disease in western Europe.

INTERPRETATION

The past 37 years have featured declining rates of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases across all quintiles of SDI, with faster than expected gains for many locations relative to their SDI. A global shift towards deaths at older ages suggests success in reducing many causes of early death. YLLs have increased globally for causes such as diabetes mellitus or some neoplasms, and in some locations for causes such as drug use disorders, and conflict and terrorism. Increasing levels of YLLs might reflect outcomes from conditions that required high levels of care but for which effective treatments remain elusive, potentially increasing costs to health systems.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Pilot study of orphenadrine as a novel treatment for muscle cramps in patients with liver cirrhosis

Background and aims

Muscle cramps markedly affect the quality of life in cirrhotic patients with no available highly effective treatment. The aim of this study was to assess the safety and efficacy of orphenadrine in the treatment of muscle cramps in cirrhotic patients.

Methods

The study enrolled 30 liver cirrhosis patients complaining of frequent muscle cramps (≥3 per week), who were randomized to receive either orphenadrine 100 mg or calcium carbonate 500 mg twice daily as a control for one month. Severity, frequency, and duration of the muscle cramps were assessed before and after treatment as well as recurrence after washout of the drug for two weeks. Side effects were recorded.

Results

One month after treatment with orphenadrine; the frequency of muscle cramps decreased significantly to 0.6 ± 0.74 per week compared to 12.53 ± 6.01 at baseline (p < 0.001), the duration of muscle cramps decreased from 1 min to 0.1 min after treatment (p < 0.001). The pain score improved significantly from a score of 8/10 to 0/10 (p < 0.001). The side effects were few, such as dry mouth, drowsiness, and nausea, with no significant difference between their occurrences in the two groups.

Conclusion

Orphenadrine is safe and effective in treatment of muscle cramps in patients with liver cirrhosis.

Randomized controlled trial of scleroligation versus band ligation alone for eradication of gastroesophageal varices

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Gastric varices develop in 5% to 33% of patients with portal hypertension. Their most common form is concomitant gastroesophageal varices. Scleroligation (combined sclerotherapy and band ligation) has been used successfully in management of esophageal varices but has not been evaluated previously in the management of gastroesophageal varices. The aim of this work was evaluation of a new scleroligation technique for management of bleeding gastroesophageal varices regarding efficacy, adverse events, variceal recurrence, and survival.

METHODS

This study was conducted on 120 cirrhotic patients with bleeding gastroesophageal varices, whom we divided randomly into 2 groups of 60 patients each-a band ligation group and a scleroligation group.

RESULTS

The mean number of sessions was lower in the scleroligation group than in the band ligation group (2.22 ± 0.92 and 3.43 ± 0.67, respectively) (P < .001), as were the duration of treatment and total number of bands used. Cost and survival were comparable in the 2 groups. There was no significant difference between the 2 maneuvers regarding adverse events, recurrence rates, or rebleeding rates after obliteration. Recurrence was significantly higher in patients with larger varices, ulceration, and postprocedure pyrexia. Rebleeding was significantly higher among those who experienced postprocedure pyrexia and developed or had worsening of gastric antral vascular ectasia.

CONCLUSIONS

Scleroligation appears to achieve a faster rate of eradication with fewer treatment sessions and total number of bands deployed to achieve variceal obliteration than band ligation and is comparable in cost and in adverse event and recurrence rates. (Clinical trial registration number: NCT02646202.).

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in patients with acute ischemic stroke is associated with more severe stroke and worse outcome

BACKGROUND

There is a paucity of data regarding the association between nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and acute ischemic stroke. Stroke is largely preventable, so that knowledge of risk factors is essential to achieve reductions in the stroke rate and resulting disease burden.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the present study was to evaluate the prognostic value of NAFLD on stroke severity and outcome.

METHODS

We prospectively studied 200 patients who were admitted with acute ischemic stroke between September 2013 and August 2015. Demographic and vascular risk factors were detailed for all subjects. The severity of stroke was assessed with National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score at admission. NAFLD was defined as serum alanine aminotransferase and/or aspartate aminotransferase levels above the upper limit of normal in the absence of other causes of elevated aminotransferase levels. The outcome was assessed with the modified Rankin scale score at discharge.

RESULTS

NAFLD was found in 42.5% of the study population. The prevalence of diabetes was significantly higher among patients with NAFLD than those without NAFLD (P = .001). Waist circumference was significantly higher among patients with NAFLD than those without NAFLD (P < .05). Patients with NAFLD had significantly higher glucose, Triglycerides, Low density lipoprotein, serum alanine aminotransferase and aspartate aminotransferase than those without NAFLD (P < .05 for each comparison). National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score at admission and modified Rankin scale score at discharge were significantly higher in patients with NAFLD than those without NAFLD (P < .05 for each comparison).

CONCLUSION

NAFLD was found in 42.5% of acute ischemic stroke patients. NAFLD might be associated with more severe stroke and worse outcome.

Anti-Nuclear Cytoplasmic Antibody-Associated Vasculitis: A Probable Adverse Effect of Sofosbuvir Treatment in Chronic Hepatitis C Patients

Background: Egypt has the largest hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemic worldwide. Sofosbuvir is an antiviral drug acting by inhibition of the HCV NS5B polymerase. It has shown high efficacy in combination with several other drugs and has a low reported rate of side effects. Objective: The aim of this prospective cohort study was to assess the safety of sofosbuvir-based treatment regimens used to treat chronic hepatitis C infections and to detect any side effects of sofosbuvir not previously reported. Methods: We studied treatment side effects in 3,000 patients with chronic HCV infection treated with sofosbuvir and ribavirin for 24 weeks or treated by pegylated interferon, sofosbuvir, and ribavirin triple therapy for 12 weeks. The endpoint of the study was the end of treatment. Results: Hyperbilirubinemia occurred frequently during treatment in both groups. Treatment was discontinued in 72 cases due to hepatic decompensation and drug complications; 8 of the cases had deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and 7 had cerebral ischemia. Surprisingly, 177/3,000 (5.9%) patients presented with abnormal bleeding, 85 of whom had a vasculitic skin rash. Conclusion: We report the occurrence of previously nonrecorded side effects with sofosbuvir, namely DVT and bleeding disorders associated with anti-nuclear cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)-associated vasculitis (AAV).We believe this to be the first report of sofosbuvir-induced AAV skin lesions and bleeding disorders.

Role of low-molecular-weight heparins in prevention of thromboembolic complication after transarterial chemoembolization in hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Portal vein thrombosis (PVT) is a common complication after transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This is the first clinical study to evaluate the role of low-molecular-weight heparins (LMWHs) with TACE in HCC for the prevention of thromboembolism complications (PVT).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This study was carried out on 40 patients with HCC requiring TACE who presented to the Tropical Medicine Department, Tanta University and Interventional Radiology Department of Ain-Shams University Hospitals starting from April 2015. Patients were divided in two groups: group I included 20 patients with HCC treated by TACE only. Group II included 20 patients with HCC treated by TACE and an adjuvant dose of LMWH. Radiological assessment of efficacy of procedure and detection of PVT as a complication was performed using ultrasound abdomen and pelvis and triphasic spiral computed tomography with contrast.

RESULTS

This study was carried out on 40 patients with HCC requiring TACE who presented to the Tropical Medicine Department of Tanta University and Interventional Radiology Department of Ain-Shams University Hospitals. The incidence of PVT after TACE was higher in group I than group II, with seven cases in group I and only one case in group II.

CONCLUSION

LMWH with TACE in HCC is strongly recommended for prevention of thromboembolism complications (PVT). However, larger randomized-controlled studies are needed to confirm these obvious findings.

Gastroprotective effects of montelukast and Nigella sativa oil against corticosteroid-induced gastric damage: they are much more than antiasthmatic drugs

Corticosteroids are used to treat a variety of diseases like bronchial asthma. However, long-term corticosteroids have a gastric ulcerogenic potential. Montelukast (MTK) and Nigella sativa oil (NSO) are used in treatment of bronchial asthma. Previous studies showed that MTK and NSO had gastroprotective effects in other models of gastric ulcer. The present study assesses synergistic gastroprotective effects of both drugs in dexamethasone (DXM)-induced gastric damage. Fifty male rats were divided into 5 groups: normal control (I), DXM group (II), MTK + DXM group (III), NSO + DXM group (IV), MTK + NSO + DXM group (V). After 7 days, stomachs were removed for biochemical analysis and histological examinations. Significant increases in malondialdehyde (MDA) level, superoxide dismutase (SOD) activity, myeloperoxidase (MPO) activity, and proliferating cell nuclear antigen (PCNA) positive cells, with significant decreases in mucus secretion were detected in DXM-treated group compared with group I. Meanwhile, significant decreases of MDA level, MPO activity, and PCNA positive cells and significant increases in mucus secretion were detected in treated groups compared with group II. SOD activity significantly decreased in group V compared with group II. We could conclude that administration of either MTK or NSO or both with DXM counteracts DXM-induced gastric lesions.

Study of Dickkopf-1 (DKK-1) Gene Expression in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients

INTRODUCTION

Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) is the sixth most common cancer in the world. Dickkopf -1 (DKK-1) protein is a new biomarker used in conjunction with Alpha Fetoprotein (AFP) to differentiate HCC from "non-malignant" liver disease. DKK-1 is an inhibitor of Wnt/β-catenin signaling pathway which is involved in embryogenesis and has been implicated in tumorigenesis in many tissues.

AIM

To investigate the level of DKK-1 gene expression in the peripheral blood of patients with HCC who had a history of Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) and schistosomal infections.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This "cross-sectional" study was carried out in the Tropical Medicine Department of Tanta University Hospital on 50 patients with HCC and 10 healthy volunteers served as control. All patients were tested for HCV antibodies and "anti-schistosomal" antibodies. All groups were tested for DKK-1 gene expression which was measured with quantitative real-time PCR.

RESULTS

DKK-1 gene was over-expressed in HCC patients than in the control group with mean 3.269±4.762 versus 1.00 in controls (p< 0.005). "Over- expression" of DKK-1 was found in: 8/20 of patients with negative serology for both infections (40%; p<0.001), 7/18 of patients with positive anti-HCV antibodies (38.89%; p<0.001) and 11/12 of patients with positive anti-schistosomal antibodies (91.66%; p<0.001). There was no statistically significant correlation between DKK-1 expression and HCV infection (p=0.139) but there was significant correlation between the gene expression and schistosomal infection (p<0.001).

CONCLUSION

These data suggest the role of DKK-1 over-expression in HCC development in patients with combined HCV and schistosomal infections and that induction of the Wnt pathway or using DKK-1 antagonist may represent a key advance in the area of genetic prevention of HCC in these "high-risk" patients.

Randomized Controlled Study Comparing Use of Propofol Plus Fentanyl versus Midazolam Plus Fentanyl as Sedation in Diagnostic Endoscopy in Patients with Advanced Liver Disease

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to investigate the safety and efficacy of propofol plus fentanyl versus midazolam plus fentanyl as sedative for patients with advanced liver disease presented for gastrointestinal endoscopy.

METHODS

A total of 100 patients with liver cirrhosis referred for upper endoscopy were enrolled and divided equally in two groups, midazolam plus fentanyl group and propofol plus fentanyl group. All patients were subjected to history taking, estimation of level of sedation, endoscopist rating, and hemodynamic parameters including oxygen saturation, heart rate, mean arterial pressure, incidence of side effect as (bradycardia, hypotension, hypoxia, nausea and vomiting, cough, shivering, or diplopia), time needed for complete recovery, and time needed for discharge.

RESULTS

There was no statistical significant difference between the studied groups regarding age, sex, weight, Child-Pugh classification score, type and duration of endoscopic intervention, time needed for complete recovery, or time needed for discharge. Complication rates were similar in both groups except for mean arterial blood pressure which was significantly lower in group of patients receiving propofol and fentanyl (P = 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The use of either propofol or midazolam in combination to fentanyl is effective in sedation of patients with advanced liver diseases presented for upper GIT endoscope. The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03063866.

Randomized-controlled trial of rifaximin versus norfloxacin for secondary prophylaxis of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is a serious complication of liver cirrhosis with a high recurrence rate and a marked increase in mortality. Norfloxacin is used widely for the secondary prophylaxis of SBP; however, its extensive long-term use has led to an increase in the incidence of quinolone-resistant and Gram-positive SBP. Rifaximin is a nonabsorbable broad-spectrum antibiotic and does not appear to promote emergence of resistance. The aim of this study was to compare the safety and efficacy of rifaximin versus norfloxacin for the secondary prevention of SBP in patients with liver cirrhosis and ascites.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Two hundred and sixty two cirrhotic patients with ascites and a previous episode of SBP were assigned randomly to receive either 1200 mg rifaximin or 400 mg of norfloxacin daily for 6 months. All patients were monitored clinically each month and with ascitic fluid examination at the end of 2 and 6 months if not clinically suspected of recurrence earlier.

RESULTS

Recurrence of SBP was significantly lower in the rifaximin group (3.88 vs. 14.13%) compared with the norfloxacin group (P=0.04). The mortality rate was significantly decreased in the rifaximin group (13.74 vs. 24.43%) compared with the norfloxacin group (P=0.044). The causes of death between the two groups did not show a significant difference (P=0.377), but encephalopathy-related deaths were three folds higher in the norfloxacin group. There was a significant decrease in the side effects in the rifaximin group versus the norfloxacin group (P=0.033).

CONCLUSION

Rifaximin was more effective than norfloxacin in the secondary prevention of SBP. Encephalopathy-related mortality and side effects were fewer in the rifaximin group.

Randomized placebo-controlled study of baclofen in the treatment of muscle cramps in patients with liver cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Muscle cramps adversely influence the quality of life of patients with liver cirrhosis. Indeed, to date, a well-established therapy for this complication is still lacking. This is the first randomized placebo-controlled trial of baclofen in the treatment of muscle cramps in patients with liver cirrhosis.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A total of 100 patients with liver cirrhosis and muscle cramps signed an informed consent to participate in this study. They were recruited from the Department of Tropical Medicine-Tanta University Hospital. They were randomized to receive either baclofen or placebo for 3 months. Patients were followed monthly and 1 month after withdrawal. At each visit, the clinicoepidemiological data were recorded, the muscle cramp questionnaire was filled, and any drug-related side effects were reported.

RESULTS

In the baclofen group, the frequency of muscle cramps decreased significantly after 1 and 3 months of treatment (P<0.005), with a significant relapse after withdrawal (P<0.001). Patients receiving baclofen showed a significant decrease in the severity and duration of muscle cramps (P<0.001). After 3 months of baclofen therapy at a dose of 30 mg/day, muscle cramps disappeared completely in 72%, reduced in 20%, and led to no change in 8% of patients. No significant changes in the frequency, severity, and duration of muscle cramps were noted in the placebo group. There were few but nonsignificant side effects in the baclofen group compared with the placebo group.

CONCLUSION

Baclofen was well tolerated, safe, and effective in the treatment of muscle cramps in patients with liver cirrhosis.

Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

In September, 2015, the UN General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs specify 17 universal goals, 169 targets, and 230 indicators leading up to 2030. We provide an analysis of 33 health-related SDG indicators based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015).

METHODS

We applied statistical methods to systematically compiled data to estimate the performance of 33 health-related SDG indicators for 188 countries from 1990 to 2015. We rescaled each indicator on a scale from 0 (worst observed value between 1990 and 2015) to 100 (best observed). Indices representing all 33 health-related SDG indicators (health-related SDG index), health-related SDG indicators included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG index), and health-related indicators not included in the MDGs (non-MDG index) were computed as the geometric mean of the rescaled indicators by SDG target. We used spline regressions to examine the relations between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI, a summary measure based on average income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate) and each of the health-related SDG indicators and indices.

FINDINGS

In 2015, the median health-related SDG index was 59·3 (95% uncertainty interval 56·8-61·8) and varied widely by country, ranging from 85·5 (84·2-86·5) in Iceland to 20·4 (15·4-24·9) in Central African Republic. SDI was a good predictor of the health-related SDG index (r2=0·88) and the MDG index (r2=0·92), whereas the non-MDG index had a weaker relation with SDI (r2=0·79). Between 2000 and 2015, the health-related SDG index improved by a median of 7·9 (IQR 5·0-10·4), and gains on the MDG index (a median change of 10·0 [6·7-13·1]) exceeded that of the non-MDG index (a median change of 5·5 [2·1-8·9]). Since 2000, pronounced progress occurred for indicators such as met need with modern contraception, under-5 mortality, and neonatal mortality, as well as the indicator for universal health coverage tracer interventions. Moderate improvements were found for indicators such as HIV and tuberculosis incidence, minimal changes for hepatitis B incidence took place, and childhood overweight considerably worsened.

INTERPRETATION

GBD provides an independent, comparable avenue for monitoring progress towards the health-related SDGs. Our analysis not only highlights the importance of income, education, and fertility as drivers of health improvement but also emphasises that investments in these areas alone will not be sufficient. Although considerable progress on the health-related MDG indicators has been made, these gains will need to be sustained and, in many cases, accelerated to achieve the ambitious SDG targets. The minimal improvement in or worsening of health-related indicators beyond the MDGs highlight the need for additional resources to effectively address the expanded scope of the health-related SDGs.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.

METHODS

We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).

FINDINGS

Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.

INTERPRETATION

At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Comparison of single-session transarterial chemoembolization combined with microwave ablation or radiofrequency ablation in the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma: a randomized-controlled study

BACKGROUND

Globally, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the third most frequent cause of cancer-related mortality. In recent years, transarterial chemoembolization, radiofrequency ablation, and microwave ablation (MWA) have been accepted as treatment modalities for patients with surgically unresectable HCC.

AIM OF THIS WORK

This study aimed to compare combination treatment with radiofrequency or MWA, followed by transarterial chemoembolization, and performed in a single session.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This study was carried out on 50 patients with nonresectable single-lesion HCC, who were divided into three groups: group A included 20 patients treated by transcatheter hepatic arterial chemoembolization, group B included 20 patients treated by radiofrequency thermal ablation combined with transcatheter arterial chemoembolization, and group C included 10 patients treated by MWA combined with transcatheter arterial chemoembolization. The combined treatments were performed in a single session, with the ablation performed first.

RESULTS

The total success rate in this study at 6 months following the procedure was 50% in group A, 70% in group B, and 80% in group C. Major complications were recorded in 22% of patients. The number of complications was the highest in group A.

CONCLUSION

Combined ablation with chemoembolization is superior in the treatment of nonresectable single masses larger than 4 cm. Transcatheter arterial chemoembolization and ablation can be performed safely and successfully during a single session, which has not been found to decrease the response rates to treatment. Combined treatment with MWA is more effective in terms of tumor response, and results in the same complication rate as with radiofrequency, but less than chemoembolization alone.

Prevalence of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis C patients in Mid Delta, Egypt: A single center study

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has an increasing incidence worldwide. In this study we aimed to assess the prevalence of HCC among HCV patients in our center in Mid Delta, Egypt.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

During the period between April 2013 and January 2015, we screened sequentially chronic HCV patients attending inpatient wards or outpatient Clinic of Tropical Medicine Department in Tanta University Hospital for HCC. Individuals with focal lesion in Ultrasound (US) and/or serum α-fetoprotein (AFP) level >200ng/ml were examined by triphasic computed tomography scanning (CT), and/or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI).

RESULTS

Among 514 HCV patients interviewed and accepted sharing in this study, 90 (17.5%), 144 (28%), and 280 (54.5%) were Child A, B, and C, respectively. We found that 108/514 patients (21%) had focal lesion detected by US. Also, 89/514 (17.3%) had elevated AFP >200, 13 of them (14.6%) had no focal lesion on US, but further work up showed HCC in 2 of them. Overall HCC diagnosis was confirmed in 103 cases, 94 of them (91.3%) were Child B or C. Occurrence of HCC was significantly higher in smokers, diabetics, patients with decompensated liver and those with positive family history of HCC. Only 20/103 (19.4%) were candidates to curative treatments, 8 of them were Child A asymptomatic and discovered accidentally during screening.

CONCLUSION

The high prevalence of HCC in our HCV patients (22%) was mainly associated with decompensated cirrhosis. A national surveillance program for the detection of HCC in cirrhotic HCV Egyptian patients by combining ultrasound examination and AFP is highly recommended.

Pigtail Catheter: A Less Invasive Option for Pleural Drainage in Egyptian Patients with Recurrent Hepatic Hydrothorax

Background and Aims. Treatment of hepatic hydrothorax is a clinical challenge. Chest tube insertion for hepatic hydrothorax is associated with high complication rates. We assessed the use of pigtail catheter as a safe and practical method for treatment of recurrent hepatic hydrothorax as it had not been assessed before in a large series of patients. Methods. This study was conducted on 60 patients admitted to Tanta University Hospital, Egypt, suffering from recurrent hepatic hydrothorax. The site of pigtail catheter insertion was determined by ultrasound guidance under complete aseptic measures and proper local anesthesia. Insertion was done by pushing the trocar and catheter until reaching the pleural cavity and then the trocar was withdrawn gradually while inserting the catheter which was then connected to a collecting bag via a triple way valve. Results. The use of pigtail catheter was successful in pleural drainage in 48 (80%) patients with hepatic hydrothorax. Complications were few and included pain at the site of insertion in 12 (20%) patients, blockage of the catheter in only 2 (3.3%) patients, and rapid reaccumulation of fluid in 12 (20%) patients. Pleurodesis was performed on 38 patients with no recurrence of fluid within three months of observation. Conclusions. Pigtail catheter insertion is a practical method for treatment of recurrent hepatic hydrothorax with a low rate of complications. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02119169.

Correlation of platelets count with endoscopic findings in a cohort of Egyptian patients with liver cirrhosis

Screening endoscopy is recommended for early detection of esophageal varices (EVs) in cirrhotic patients with portal hypertension. However, this approach is limited by its invasiveness and cost. The aim of the study was to determine if platelet count can predict the presence of EVs, especially large (grade III, IV) EVs in need of prophylactic therapy, in a cohort of Egyptian patients with liver cirrhosis. In all, 110 patients with cirrhosis were prospectively analyzed. The presence of medium or large EVs was correlated with patients' platelet count and FIB-4. Esophageal varices were present in 87 (79.09%) patients. Among those with thrombocytopenia (platelet level below 150,000), 25.97% (20 patients) and 27.27% (21 patients) had EV grade II and EV grade III or IV, respectively. Whereas in patients in whom the platelet count was above 150,000, only 21.21% (7 patients) and 9.09% (3 patients) of patients had grade II EV and EV grade III or IV, respectively. A platelet count cut-off value of 149,000 was found to have specificity of 82% and sensitivity 39% for detection of presence of varices. A FIB-4 cut-off value of 3.175 was found to have an 83.3% sensitivity and 39.5% specificity in detecting large (grade III, IV) EVs. Platelet count is a noninvasive parameter with high accuracy for prediction of EVs. Cirrhotic patients with normal platelet counts (above 150,000), especially in financially deprived developing countries, can avoid screening endoscopy as they are at a low risk for variceal bleeding, and presence of large EVs in these patients is much less common than in those with thrombocytopenia. A 3.175 cut-off value of FIB-4 could be useful as a noninvasive predictor of large varices requiring prophylactic banding in cirrhotic patients.

A 2-week Nitazoxanide-based quadruple treatment as a rescue therapy for Helicobacter pylori eradication: A single center experience

As there are increasing reports of fluoroquinolone resistance on use as a first- or second-line treatment for Helicobacter pylori (H pylori), we aimed at evaluation of the efficacy and safety of nitazoxanide-based regimen as a rescue regimen in Egyptian patients whose previous traditional treatment for H pylori infection failed.In total, 100 patients from the outpatient clinic of the Tropical medicine department, Tanta University hospital in whom the standard triple therapy (clarithromycin-based triple therapy) failed were enrolled in the study. Nitazoxanide (500 mg bid), levofloxacin (500 mg once daily), omeprazole (40 mg bid), and doxycyclin (100 mg twice daily) were prescribed for 14 days. Eradication was confirmed by stool antigen for H pylori 6 weeks after the end of treatment. Among the patients enrolled in the study, 44% of patients were men and the mean age for the participants in the study was 46.41 ± 8.05, 13% of patients were smokers, and 4% of patients had a previous history of upper gastro-intestinal bleeding. A total of 94 patients (94%) completed the study with excellent compliance. Only 1 patient (1%) discontinued treatment due to intolerable side effects and 5 patients (5%) did not achieve good compliance or were lost during follow up. However, 83 patients had successful eradication of H pylori with total eradication rates 83% (95 % CI 75.7-90.3%) and 88.30% (95 % CI 81.8-94.8%) according to an intention-to-treat and per-protocol analysis, respectively. Adverse events were reported in 21% of patients: abdominal pain (6%), nausea (9%) and constipation (12%), (2%) headache, and (1%) dizziness. A 2-week nitazoxanide-based regimen is an effective and safe rescue therapy in Egyptian patients whose previous standard triple therapy has failed.