Association of blood groups with hepatitis C viremia

Hepatitis C virus remained a public health problem with approximately half of the patients untreated and undiagnosed. Chronic HCV is a leading cause of cirrhosis, fibrosis, hepatocellular carcinoma and other hepatic morbidities. Active HCV has a prevalence rate of about 1% (71 million). By July, 2019, 10 million population of Pakistan was declared to have active HCV infection. According to World Health Organization, 23,720 people died of hepatitis-related complexities in Pakistan in 2016. Individuals with certain types of ABO blood groups were more susceptible to diverse kinds of infections. For instance, blood types A and AB predisposed individuals to severe malaria, while type O conferred resistance to the many of the protozoan agent. This study was designed to explore the association of hepatitis C viremia to blood groups, Rh factors, age and gender distribution among Pakistani population. Total 246 participants were screened for HCV in Taqwa diagnostics laboratory, Multan and 200 were found positive. They were divided into 4 groups on the basis of their age. First group included patients ranging from 17 to 25 (52), second, third and fourth group included patients from 26 to 34 (92), 35 to 43 (42) and 44 to above (14) respectively. Confirmed Hepatitis C patients were subjected to analysis of blood group, Rh factor and viral load. Results demonstrated that patients having 'O' blood group (60.37%) were reported for high viral load than any of the other blood groups in the patients of Southern Punjab, Pakistan. Furthermore, Rh-negative factor (26.42) was associated with high viral load than that of the Rh-positive factor (73.58). Disclosure practiced that age group (26-34) was reported for the high viral load than that of the any other group of this study. Females were more aggressively affected by HCV Viremia than male because the mean viral load among the females was higher than that of the males. Greater social awareness and gender-sensitive healthcare is necessary to improve the experiences of patients with HCV.

Assessing Leaching of Potentially Hazardous Elements from Cookware during Cooking: A Serious Public Health Concern

The intake of toxic metals from cooking utensils through food is of growing concern to the medical community. This intake poses serious risk to human health. In many developing countries, different types of contaminated metals scraps are used to make cooking utensils. The leaching of both nutritionally essential and toxic metals in significant quantities from cookware during the cooking process results in food contamination and poses a substantial health risk. In the present study, the leaching of some toxic and potentially toxic metals from cooking utensils into different solutions and food was investigated. A preliminary survey indicated that the majority of individuals tend to use aluminum cookware due to its affordability, overlooking the potential health risks associated with these inexpensive and lower-quality cooking utensils. XRF analysis revealed that aluminum, steel, and copper cookware had K, Ca, Pb, Cd, Ni, V, Sn Mo, Zn, Bi, and Tb as contaminants. In addition, aluminum (3.2 ± 0.25 to 4.64 ± 0.20 g/kg) and copper cookware (2.90 ± 0.12 g/kg) were highly contaminated with lead. The time and pH-dependent study revealed that leaching of metals (Al, Pb, Ni, Cr, Cd, Cu, and Fe, etc.) into food was predominantly from anodized and non-anodized aluminum cookware. More metal leaching was observed from new aluminum cookware compared to old. Acidic food was found to cause more metals to leach during cooking. Blood metal analysis of the local population revealed the presence of high concentrations of Al, Pb, Cd, and Ni. In conclusion, leaching of toxic or potentially toxic metals from cookware into food, especially from anodized and non-anodized aluminum cookware, poses a potential public health risk. Practical applications: Cooking utensils are routinely used for the preparation of food. However, the harmful impact posed by these essential items is largely unknown. The current research briefly explains the toxic metals leaching from cookware in a pH-dependent manner and leaves a message to the public, especially in developing countries like Pakistan, regarding the type of cookware suitable for cooking purposes.

Preparation of cellulosic Ag-nanocomposites using an ionic liquid

Cellulose-based nanocomposites have gained much attention due to their remarkable biological properties such as biodegradability, biocompatibility, and low toxicity. In this research work, 1-h-3-methylimidazolium hydrogen sulfate ionic liquid was employed as an efficient solvent for preparation of cellulosic Ag-nanocomposites (CRC/AgNPs composite) from Neem plant. Ionic liquid plays a dual role in obtaining cellulose-rich compound (CRC; removing lignin and hemicellulose components) and plant's extract (phenolic compounds such as flavonoids, tannins, etc.) that reduces the AgNO3 into AgNPs for preparation of CRC/AgNPs composite. The prepared CRC/AgNPs composite was characterized using XRD, FTIR and SEM techniques. The XRD and FTIR spectral analysis showed the characteristic peaks assigned to cellulosic constituent and AgNPs. SEM analysis revealed the particles in the range from 26 to 56 nm. The CRC/AgNPs composite was evaluated for its antibacterial and mechanical properties. The antibacterial activity against S. aureus and E. coli for CRC/AgNPs composite was observed in comparison to CRC. Cell viability and morphology were performed on MC3T3-E1 cells which showed no as such toxicity for the prepared CRC/AgNPs composite. Moreover, the addition of CRC/AgNPs composite as a filler increased the compression strength of polymeric materials.

Effectiveness of locally produced ready to use supplementary food on hemoglobin, anthropometrics, and plasma micronutrients concentrations of 6 to 23 months age children: a non-randomized community-based trial from Pakistan

BACKGROUND

Micronutrient deficiencies including vitamin A, vitamin D, and zinc are highly prevalent in children below 5 years of age in low and -middle-income countries. We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of ready-to-use Lipid-based Nutrient Supplement-Medium Quantity (LNS-MQ) local name "Wawa-mum" on plasma micronutrient status, hemoglobin concentration and anthropometric measurements.

METHODS

A community-based non-randomized trial was conducted in the Kurram district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa from January 2018 to June 2019. A total of 110 children aged 6 to 23 months old were recruited and allocated to the intervention and control arm of the study. A total of 57 children in the intervention arm received a daily ration of 50 g of Wawa-mum, for one year. To assess the impact of the intervention on primary outcome measures, i.e., serum vitamin A, D concentration, plasma zinc, and hemoglobin concentration. Blood samples were collected at baseline and after one year following the intervention. The vitamins concentration in serum were assessed using Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) and plasma zinc by atomic absorption spectrometry. The hemoglobin concentration was measured by an automated hematology analyzer. A 24-h dietary recall interview was used to assess the nutrient intake adequacy. Multivariate Linear regression models were used to analyze the outcomes while controlling for potential confounders.

RESULTS

In the intervention arm, children had on average 6.2 μg/dL (95% CI 3.0-9.3, value of p<0.001) increase in the serum vitamin A concentration, 8.1 ng/mL (95% CI 1.3-14.9, value of p 0.02) increase in serum vitamin D concentration and 49.0 μg/dL (95% CI 33.5-64.5, value of p<0.001) increase in the plasma zinc concentration, and 2.7 g/dL (95% CI 2.0-3.3, value of p<0.001) increase in hemoglobin concentration while adjusted for covariates. An addition, length-for-age z-score (LAZ), weight-for-length z-score (WLZ), weight-for-age z-score (WAZ), and prevalence of undernutrition including stunting, wasting, and underweight were calculated as a secondary outcome to investigate the impact of micronutrients on growth parameters, that has been improved significantly after receiving the Wawa-mum.

CONCLUSION

Wawa-mum (LNS-MQ) is an effective intervention to improve the micronutrient status, hemoglobin concentration, and growth parameters in 6 to 23 months children, which can be scaled up in the existing health system to address the alarming rates of under nutrition in Pakistan and other developing countries.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

https://doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN94319790, ISRCTN94319790.

Long-Term Impact of Multiple Micronutrient Supplementation on Micronutrient Status, Hemoglobin Level, and Growth in Children 24 to 59 Months of Age: A Non-Randomized Community-Based Trial from Pakistan

Cost-effective interventions are needed to address undernutrition, particularly micronutrient deficiencies, which are common in children under the age of five in low- and middle-income countries. A community-based, non-randomized clinical trial was undertaken in the Kurram district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa from January 2018 to June 2019, to evaluate the effect of locally produced micronutrient powder (local name: Vita-Mixe) on plasma micronutrient status, hemoglobin level, and anthropometric outcomes. Children aged 24-48 months old were recruited and allocated to the intervention and control arm of the study. The enrolled children in the intervention arm received one micronutrient powder (MNP) sachet for consumption on alternate days for 12 months. To assess the impact of the intervention on plasma levels of zinc, vitamin D, vitamin A, and hemoglobin level, blood samples were taken at baseline and after one year following the intervention. The analysis was conducted using Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA), atomic absorption spectrometry, and an automated hematology analyzer. For the impact on growth parameters, the anthropometric assessment was performed using WHO standard guidelines. A 24 h dietary recall interview was used to assess the nutrient intake adequacy. Results showed that in the intervention arm, children had on average a 7.52 ng/mL (95% CI 5.11-9.92, p-value < 0.001) increase in the plasma level of vitamin A, 4.80 ng/mL (95% CI 1.63-7.95, p-value < 0.002) increase in vitamin D levels and 33.85 µg/dL (95% CI 24.40-43.30, p-value < 0.001) increase in the plasma zinc level, as well as a 2.0g/dL (95% CI 1.64-2.40, p-value < 0.001) increase in hemoglobin level. Statistically significant improvement was observed in the weight-for-height z-score (WHZ) (from -1.0 ± 0.88 to -0.40 ± 1.01, p < 0.001) and weight-for-age z-score (WAZ) (from -1.40 ± 0.50 to -1.05 ± 0.49, p < 0.001) in the intervention group compared to the control group. No statistically significant change was observed in the height-for-age z-score (HAZ) in the intervention group (p = 0.93). In conclusion, micronutrient powder supplementation is a cost-effective intervention to improve the micronutrient status, hemoglobin level, and growth parameters in under-five children, which can be scaled up in the existing health system to address the alarming rates of undernutrition in Pakistan and other developing countries.

Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Up-to-date estimates of stroke burden and attributable risks and their trends at global, regional, and national levels are essential for evidence-based health care, prevention, and resource allocation planning. We aimed to provide such estimates for the period 1990-2021.

METHODS

We estimated incidence, prevalence, death, and disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) counts and age-standardised rates per 100 000 people per year for overall stroke, ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, and subarachnoid haemorrhage, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. We also calculated burden of stroke attributable to 23 risk factors and six risk clusters (air pollution, tobacco smoking, behavioural, dietary, environmental, and metabolic risks) at the global and regional levels (21 GBD regions and Socio-demographic Index [SDI] quintiles), using the standard GBD methodology. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.

FINDINGS

In 2021, stroke was the third most common GBD level 3 cause of death (7·3 million [95% UI 6·6-7·8] deaths; 10·7% [9·8-11·3] of all deaths) after ischaemic heart disease and COVID-19, and the fourth most common cause of DALYs (160·5 million [147·8-171·6] DALYs; 5·6% [5·0-6·1] of all DALYs). In 2021, there were 93·8 million (89·0-99·3) prevalent and 11·9 million (10·7-13·2) incident strokes. We found disparities in stroke burden and risk factors by GBD region, country or territory, and SDI, as well as a stagnation in the reduction of incidence from 2015 onwards, and even some increases in the stroke incidence, death, prevalence, and DALY rates in southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania, countries with lower SDI, and people younger than 70 years. Globally, ischaemic stroke constituted 65·3% (62·4-67·7), intracerebral haemorrhage constituted 28·8% (28·3-28·8), and subarachnoid haemorrhage constituted 5·8% (5·7-6·0) of incident strokes. There were substantial increases in DALYs attributable to high BMI (88·2% [53·4-117·7]), high ambient temperature (72·4% [51·1 to 179·5]), high fasting plasma glucose (32·1% [26·7-38·1]), diet high in sugar-sweetened beverages (23·4% [12·7-35·7]), low physical activity (11·3% [1·8-34·9]), high systolic blood pressure (6·7% [2·5-11·6]), lead exposure (6·5% [4·5-11·2]), and diet low in omega-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids (5·3% [0·5-10·5]).

INTERPRETATION

Stroke burden has increased from 1990 to 2021, and the contribution of several risk factors has also increased. Effective, accessible, and affordable measures to improve stroke surveillance, prevention (with the emphasis on blood pressure, lifestyle, and environmental factors), acute care, and rehabilitation need to be urgently implemented across all countries to reduce stroke burden.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Hippophae rhamnoides mediate gene expression profiles against keratinocytes infection of Staphylococcus aureus

Staphylococcus aureus causes a wide range of skin diseases such as bacterial keratitis, follicles, psoriasis, cellulitis and atopic dermatitis. This study aims to investigate the S. aureus mediated molecular modulation, and the effect of HR in reversing the deleterious impact of S. aureus in keratinocytes. Human keratinocyte (HaCaT) cells were cultured in DMEM, supplemented with 10% fetal bovine serum (FBS) and 1% penicillin/streptomycin. Subcultures were divided into three flasks: control with no S. aureus and extract (C), S. aureus infected (SA) and S. aureus infected cells and extract (SE). RNA was isolated and microarray analysis was performed. The data was annotated using GO functional analysis and DAVID functional annotation. For each comparison group, significant probes were filtered out at significant cut off by fold change (P < 0.05 and/or > twofold change). For SA vs control, SE vs control, and SE vs SA, 204, 9369, 9900 probes were filtered respectively. In SA vs control, TNF signaling, NOD-like receptor and chemokine receptor signaling pathways were upregulated with key genes such as CCL2, CCL20 and BIRC3. The SE vs SA, showed significant expression variations of a number of important genes. Molecular pathways associated with ILs, TNFs, TGFs, IFNs, FGFs, MAPKs, MMPs, caspases and Wnts were either up regulated or downregulated. This effect was reversed by the extract, possibly through downregulating various proinflammatory cytokines and apoptotic pathways. Our study reveals that S. aureus inserts a negative impact on the regulation of various key genes which is apparently reversed by the HR extract.

Development and Validation of a Prognostic Nomogram Model for HER2-Positive Male Breast Cancer Patients

BACKGROUND

HER2-positive male breast cancer (MBC) is a rare condition that has a poor prognosis. The purpose of this study was to establish a nomogram model for predicting the prognosis of HER2-positive MBC patients.

METHODS

240 HER2-positive MBC patients from 2004 to 2015 were retrieved from the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results (SEER) database. All HER2-positive MBC patients were divided randomly into training (n = 144) and validation cohorts (n = 96) according to a ratio of 6:4. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to determine the prognostic factors associated with HER2-positive MBC patients. A clinical prediction model was constructed to predict the overall survival of these patients. The nomogram model was assessed by using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves, calibration plots and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

The Cox regression analysis showed that T-stage, M-stage, surgery and chemotherapy were independent risk factors for the prognosis of HER2-positive MBC patients. The model could also accurately predict the Overall survival (OS) of the patients. In the training and validation cohorts, the C indexes of the OS nomograms were 0.746 (0.677-0.815) and 0.754 (0.679-0.829), respectively. Calibration curves and DCA verified the reliability and accuracy of the clinical prediction model.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, the predictive model constructed had good clinical utility and can help the clinician to select appropriate treatment strategies for HER2-positive MBC patients.

Chemistry, Biosynthesis and Pharmacology of Streptonigrin: An Old Molecule with Future Prospects for New Drug Design, Development and Therapy

Streptonigrin is an aminoquinone alkaloid isolated from Streptomyces flocculus and is gaining attention as a drug molecule owing to its potential antitumor and antibiotic effects. It was previously used as an anticancer drug but has been discontinued because of its toxic effects. However, according to the most recent studies, the toxicity of streptonigrin and its structurally modified derivatives has been reduced while maintaining their potential pharmacological action at lower concentrations. To date, many investigations have been conducted on this molecule and its derivatives to determine the most effective molecule with low toxicity to enable new drug discovery. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to provide a comprehensive review and to discuss the prospects for streptonigrin and its derived compounds, which may boost the molecule as a highly interesting target molecule for new drug design, development and therapy. To complete this review, relevant literature was collected from several scientific databases, including Google Scholar, PubMed, Scopus and ScienceDirect. Following a complete screening, the obtained information is summarized in the present review to provide a good reference and accelerate the development and utilization of streptonigrin and its derivatives as pharmaceuticals.

MAHSA University, Malaysia, Zaman S. The Emerging Role of Gut Microbiota in Metabolic Diseases

The human gut microbiota, consisting of around 100 trillion microorganisms, plays an essential role in regulating metabolic balance and supporting overall health. It is well documented that dysbiosis is associated with a number of metabolic disorders including type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), obesity, hypercholesterolemia, and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). Recent studies have shown that the gut microbiome influences metabolism, immune responses, and even neuroendocrine signaling by producing metabolites like short-chain fatty acids. In obesity, the altered Firmicutes/Bacteroidetes ratio is linked to increased energy harvest from the diet. At the same time, specific bacterial taxa such as Akkermansia muciniphila and Faecalibacterium prausnitzii exhibit anti-inflammatory properties and are inversely correlated with obesity-related inflammation. Dysbiosis in T2DM is associated with reduced levels of beneficial bacteria like Bifidobacterium and Roseburia, which are important for maintaining gut barrier integrity and regulating immune responses. Furthermore, hypercholesterolemia and CVDs have also been linked to gut microbiota composition. Specific bacterial strains, including Lactobacillus and Clostridium, are involved in bile acid metabolism, cholesterol homeostasis, and the modulation of lipid levels. This review article aims to provide an in-depth analysis of the role of gut microbiota in metabolic diseases, exploring the underlying mechanisms of microbial dysbiosis and its contribution to disease progression. Targeting microbial dysbiosis through therapeutic interventions such as probiotics, prebiotics, and dietary modifications could offer promising strategies for preventing and managing metabolic disorders, thereby improving overall health outcomes.

Temporal patterns of cancer burden in Asia, 1990-2019: a systematic examination for the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study

BACKGROUND

Cancers represent a challenging public health threat in Asia. This study examines the temporal patterns of incidence, mortality, disability and risk factors of 29 cancers in Asia in the last three decades.

METHODS

The age, sex and year-wise estimates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of 29 cancers for 49 Asian countries from 1990 through 2019 were generated as a part of the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries and Risk Factors 2019 study. Besides incidence, mortality and DALYs, we also examined the cancer burden measured in terms of DALYs and deaths attributable to risk factors, which had evidence of causation with different cancers. The development status of countries was measured using the socio-demographic index. Decomposition analysis was performed to gauge the change in cancer incidence between 1990 and 2019 due to population growth, aging and age-specific incidence rates.

FINDINGS

All cancers combined claimed an estimated 5.6 million [95% uncertainty interval, 5.1-6.0 million] lives in Asia with 9.4 million [8.6-10.2 million] incident cases and 144.7 million [132.7-156.5 million] DALYs in 2019. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of all cancers combined in Asia was 197.6/100,000 [181.0-214.4] in 2019, varying from 99.2/100,000 [76.1-126.0] in Bangladesh to 330.5/100,000 [298.5-365.8] in Cyprus. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) was 120.6/100,000 [110.1-130.7] in 2019, varying 4-folds across countries from 71.0/100,000 [59.9-83.5] in Kuwait to 284.2/100,000 [229.2-352.3] in Mongolia. The age-standardized DALYs rate was 2970.5/100,000 [2722.6-3206.5] in 2019, varying from 1578.0/100,000 [1341.2-1847.0] in Kuwait to 6574.4/100,000 [5141.7-8333.0] in Mongolia. Between 1990 and 2019, deaths due to 17 of the 29 cancers either doubled or more, and 20 of the 29 cancers underwent an increase of 150% or more in terms of new cases. Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (both sexes), breast cancer (among females), colon and rectum cancer (both sexes), stomach cancer (both sexes) and prostate cancer (among males) were among top-5 cancers in most Asian countries in terms of ASIR and ASMR in 2019 and cancers of liver, stomach, hodgkin lymphoma and esophageal cancer posted the most significant decreases in age-standardized rates between 1990 and 2019. Among the modifiable risk factors, smoking, alcohol use, ambient particulate matter (PM) pollution and unsafe sex remained the dominant risk factors between 1990 and 2019. Cancer DALYs due to ambient PM pollution, high body mass index and fasting plasma glucose has increased most notably between 1990 and 2019.

INTERPRETATION

With growing incidence, cancer has become more significant public health threat in Asia, demanding urgent policy attention and guidance. Its heightened risk calls for increased cancer awareness, preventive measures, affordable early-stage detection, and cost-effective therapeutics in Asia. The current study can serve as a useful resource for policymakers and researchers in Asia for devising interventions for cancer management and control.

FUNDING

The GBD study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national age-specific progress towards the 2020 milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Global evaluations of the progress towards the WHO End TB Strategy 2020 interim milestones on mortality (35% reduction) and incidence (20% reduction) have not been age specific. We aimed to assess global, regional, and national-level burdens of and trends in tuberculosis and its risk factors across five separate age groups, from 1990 to 2021, and to report on age-specific progress between 2015 and 2020.

METHODS

We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 (GBD 2021) analytical framework to compute age-specific tuberculosis mortality and incidence estimates for 204 countries and territories (1990-2021 inclusive). We quantified tuberculosis mortality among individuals without HIV co-infection using 22 603 site-years of vital registration data, 1718 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data, and 9 site-years of minimally invasive tissue sample (MITS) diagnoses data as inputs into the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling platform. Age-specific HIV and tuberculosis deaths were established with a population attributable fraction approach. We analysed all available population-based data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis mortality, in DisMod-MR 2.1 to produce internally consistent age-specific estimates of tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality. We also estimated age-specific tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection that is attributable to the independent and combined effects of three risk factors (smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes). As a secondary analysis, we examined the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection by comparing expected tuberculosis deaths, modelled with trends in tuberculosis deaths from 2015 to 2019 in vital registration data, with observed tuberculosis deaths in 2020 and 2021 for countries with available cause-specific mortality data.

FINDINGS

We estimated 9·40 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·36 to 10·5) tuberculosis incident cases and 1·35 million (1·23 to 1·52) deaths due to tuberculosis in 2021. At the global level, the all-age tuberculosis incidence rate declined by 6·26% (5·27 to 7·25) between 2015 and 2020 (the WHO End TB strategy evaluation period). 15 of 204 countries achieved a 20% decrease in all-age tuberculosis incidence between 2015 and 2020, eight of which were in western sub-Saharan Africa. When stratified by age, global tuberculosis incidence rates decreased by 16·5% (14·8 to 18·4) in children younger than 5 years, 16·2% (14·2 to 17·9) in those aged 5-14 years, 6·29% (5·05 to 7·70) in those aged 15-49 years, 5·72% (4·02 to 7·39) in those aged 50-69 years, and 8·48% (6·74 to 10·4) in those aged 70 years and older, from 2015 to 2020. Global tuberculosis deaths decreased by 11·9% (5·77 to 17·0) from 2015 to 2020. 17 countries attained a 35% reduction in deaths due to tuberculosis between 2015 and 2020, most of which were in eastern Europe (six countries) and central Europe (four countries). There was variable progress by age: a 35·3% (26·7 to 41·7) decrease in tuberculosis deaths in children younger than 5 years, a 29·5% (25·5 to 34·1) decrease in those aged 5-14 years, a 15·2% (10·0 to 20·2) decrease in those aged 15-49 years, a 7·97% (0·472 to 14·1) decrease in those aged 50-69 years, and a 3·29% (-5·56 to 9·07) decrease in those aged 70 years and older. Removing the combined effects of the three attributable risk factors would have reduced the number of all-age tuberculosis deaths from 1·39 million (1·28 to 1·54) to 1·00 million (0·703 to 1·23) in 2020, representing a 36·5% (21·5 to 54·8) reduction in tuberculosis deaths compared to those observed in 2015. 41 countries were included in our analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis deaths without HIV co-infection in 2020, and 20 countries were included in the analysis for 2021. In 2020, 50 900 (95% CI 49 700 to 52 400) deaths were expected across all ages, compared to an observed 45 500 deaths, corresponding to 5340 (4070 to 6920) fewer deaths; in 2021, 39 600 (38 300 to 41 100) deaths were expected across all ages compared to an observed 39 000 deaths, corresponding to 657 (-713 to 2180) fewer deaths.

INTERPRETATION

Despite accelerated progress in reducing the global burden of tuberculosis in the past decade, the world did not attain the first interim milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy in 2020. The pace of decline has been unequal with respect to age, with older adults (ie, those aged >50 years) having the slowest progress. As countries refine their national tuberculosis programmes and recalibrate for achieving the 2035 targets, they could consider learning from the strategies of countries that achieved the 2020 milestones, as well as consider targeted interventions to improve outcomes in older age groups.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of HIV/AIDS, 1990-2021, and forecasts to 2050, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

As set out in Sustainable Development Goal 3.3, the target date for ending the HIV epidemic as a public health threat is 2030. Therefore, there is a crucial need to evaluate current epidemiological trends and monitor global progress towards HIV incidence and mortality reduction goals. In this analysis, we assess the current burden of HIV in 204 countries and territories and forecast HIV incidence, prevalence, and mortality up to 2050 to allow countries to plan for a sustained response with an increasing number of people living with HIV globally.

METHODS

We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 analytical framework to compute age-sex-specific HIV mortality, incidence, and prevalence estimates for 204 countries and territories (1990-2021). We aimed to analyse all available data sources, including data on the provision of HIV programmes reported to UNAIDS, published literature on mortality among people on antiretroviral therapy (ART) identified by a systematic review, household surveys, sentinel surveillance antenatal care clinic data, vital registration data, and country-level case report data. We calibrated a mechanistic simulation of HIV infection and natural history to available data to estimate HIV burden from 1990 to 2021 and generated forecasts to 2050 through projection of all simulation inputs into the future. Historical outcomes (1990-2021) were simulated at the 1000-draw level to support propagation of uncertainty and reporting of uncertainty intervals (UIs). Our approach to forecasting utilised the transmission rate as the basis for projection, along with new rate-of-change projections of ART coverage. Additionally, we introduced two new metrics to our reporting: prevalence of unsuppressed viraemia (PUV), which represents the proportion of the population without a suppressed level of HIV (viral load <1000 copies per mL), and period lifetime probability of HIV acquisition, which quantifies the hypothetical probability of acquiring HIV for a synthetic cohort, a simulated population that is aged from birth to death through the set of age-specific incidence rates of a given time period.

FINDINGS

Global new HIV infections decreased by 21·9% (95% UI 13·1-28·8) between 2010 and 2021, from 2·11 million (2·02-2·25) in 2010 to 1·65 million (1·48-1·82) in 2021. HIV-related deaths decreased by 39·7% (33·7-44·5), from 1·19 million (1·07-1·37) in 2010 to 718 000 (669 000-785 000) in 2021. The largest declines in both HIV incidence and mortality were in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia. However, super-regions including central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and north Africa and the Middle East experienced increasing HIV incidence and mortality rates. The number of people living with HIV reached 40·0 million (38·0-42·4) in 2021, an increase from 29·5 million (28·1-31·0) in 2010. The lifetime probability of HIV acquisition remains highest in the sub-Saharan Africa super-region, where it declined from its 1995 peak of 21·8% (20·1-24·2) to 8·7% (7·5-10·7) in 2021. Four of the seven GBD super-regions had a lifetime probability of less than 1% in 2021. In 2021, sub-Saharan Africa had the highest PUV of 999·9 (857·4-1154·2) per 100 000 population, but this was a 64·5% (58·8-69·4) reduction in PUV from 2003 to 2021. In the same period, PUV increased in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia by 116·1% (8·0-218·2). Our forecasts predict a continued global decline in HIV incidence and mortality, with the number of people living with HIV peaking at 44·4 million (40·7-49·8) by 2039, followed by a gradual decrease. In 2025, we projected 1·43 million (1·29-1·59) new HIV infections and 615 000 (567 000-680 000) HIV-related deaths, suggesting that the interim 2025 targets for reducing these figures are unlikely to be achieved. Furthermore, our forecasted results indicate that few countries will meet the 2030 target for reducing HIV incidence and HIV-related deaths by 90% from 2010 levels.

INTERPRETATION

Our forecasts indicate that continuation of current levels of HIV control are not likely to attain ambitious incidence and mortality reduction targets by 2030, and more than 40 million people globally will continue to require lifelong ART for decades into the future. The global community will need to show sustained and substantive efforts to make the progress needed to reach and sustain the end of AIDS as a public threat.

FUNDING

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Akt Downregulates B-Cell Translocation Gene-2 Expression Via Erk1/2 Inhibition for Proliferation of Cancer Cells

B-cell translocation gene 2 (Btg2) is a tumor suppressor gene that is implicated in many biological processes. Akt is a serine/threonine kinase which was originally discovered as an oncogene. The prognostic value of Akt activation in some types of cancers and its effect on tumor suppressor genes remains to be fully elucidated. In the current research we have investigated the Akt-mediated downregulation of Btg2 that increased cells proliferation and cells survival. Human leukemia HL-60, THP-1 and colon cancer DLD-1 cells were used in this study. Inhibition of Akt with LY294002 significantly increased Btg2 mRNA expression while activation of Akt with insulin decreased Btg2 expression. Contrary to this, treatment of cells with U0126, a MAPK kinase inhibitor, significantly abrogated Btg2 expression. Moreover, LY294002 treatment increased Erk1/2 activation, decreased cells proliferation and cells viability while activation of Akt by insulin led to an increase in cells survival and cells division. Exogenous expression of Btg2 decreased cells proliferation both in the presence and absence of insulin and arrested cells at G1 phase. Akt negatively regulates Btg2 via Erk1/2 inhibition that lead to an increase in cells survival and cells proliferation. This elucidates a new mechanism for Btg2 regulation and Akt mediated tumorgenicity.

Epigenetic Modulation in Cancer: Molecular Mechanisms and Therapeutic Targets – A Review

Cancer continues to be one of the leading causes of death and a major global health problem despite ongoing research efforts, advancement in medical technologies, and increased public health awareness. However, the understanding of human cancer as a heterogeneous disease has been significantly increased offering hope that the vital molecular and cellular mechanisms would pave the way for controlling cancer at its advanced stages. The transformation of normal cells into cancerous cells is a complex process achieved through a cascade of events and molecular modifications. A great deal of cancer research has been focusing on studying epigenetic alterations such as DNA methylation, histone modification, and non-coding RNA expression. These epigenetic changes modulate gene expression which is believed to play a potential role in cancer initiation, proliferation, and metastasis. This article aims to review how several aberrant epigenetic regulations impact gene expression and cellular reprogramming in cancer. It also discusses how hypomethylation can lead to increased expression of oncogenes and how hypermethylation silences key tumor suppressor genes. It also highlights how these aberrantly dysregulated genes can serve as potential therapeutic targets for cancer prevention and as biomarkers for early cancer detection.

Global estimates on the number of people blind or visually impaired by glaucoma: A meta-analysis from 2000 to 2020

OBJECTIVES

To estimate global and regional trends from 2000 to 2020 of the number of persons visually impaired by glaucoma and their proportion of the total number of vision-impaired individuals.

METHODS

A systematic review and meta-analysis of published population studies and grey literature from 2000 to 2020 was carried out to estimate global and regional trends in number of people with vision loss due to glaucoma. Moderate or severe vision loss (MSVI) was defined as visual acuity of 6/60 or better but <6/18 (moderate) and visual acuity of 3/60 or better but <6/60 (severe vision loss). Blindness was defined as presenting visual acuity <3/60.

RESULTS

Globally, in 2020, 3.61 million people were blind and nearly 4.14 million were visually impaired by glaucoma. Glaucoma accounted for 8.39% (95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]: 6.54, 10.29) of all blindness and 1.41% (95% UI: 1.10, 1.75) of all MSVI. Regionally, the highest proportion of blindness relating to glaucoma was found in high-income countries (26.12% [95% UI: 20.72, 32.09]), while the region with the highest age-standardized prevalence of glaucoma-related blindness and MSVI was Sub-Saharan Africa. Between 2000 and 2020, global age-standardized prevalence of glaucoma-related blindness among adults ≥50 years decreased by 26.06% among males (95% UI: 25.87, 26.24), and by 21.75% among females (95% UI: 21.54, 21.96), while MSVI due to glaucoma increased by 3.7% among males (95% UI: 3.42, 3.98), and by 7.3% in females (95% UI: 7.01, 7.59).

CONCLUSIONS

Within the last two decades, glaucoma has remained a major cause of blindness globally and regionally.

The Challenge in Burden of Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension: A Perspective From the Global Burden of Disease Study

Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) poses significant clinical management challenges due to gaps in understanding its global epidemiology. We analyzed PAH-related disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), deaths, and prevalence from 1990 to 2021. Age-period-cohort models and regression analyses assessed temporal trends and projected burdens to 2050. Globally, PAH-related DALYs declined by 6.6%, but increased by 13.9% in high socio-demographic index (SDI) countries. Middle SDI regions reported the highest DALYs in 1990 and 2021. Deaths rose by 48.5% worldwide, with high SDI nations experiencing a 76.6% surge. Age-standardized rates (ASRs) of DALYs and deaths decreased across SDI countries, with high-middle SDI regions showing the steepest declines. Younger age groups, especially males, had a higher proportion of global DALYs in earlier years, but the burden shifted toward older populations over time, with this trend more pronounced in high-SDI countries. Age-period-cohort analysis revealed declining DALYs in younger ages but rising rates in older cohorts. By 2050, deaths and prevalence are projected to rise, disproportionately affecting females. Significant regional disparities in PAH burden persist, necessitating targeted policies, improved healthcare access, and early detection strategies, especially in underserved areas. Addressing these disparities is critical for mitigating PAH' s global impact.

Forecasting the effects of smoking prevalence scenarios on years of life lost and life expectancy from 2022 to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Smoking is the leading behavioural risk factor for mortality globally, accounting for more than 175 million deaths and nearly 4·30 billion years of life lost (YLLs) from 1990 to 2021. The pace of decline in smoking prevalence has slowed in recent years for many countries, and although strategies have recently been proposed to achieve tobacco-free generations, none have been implemented to date. Assessing what could happen if current trends in smoking prevalence persist, and what could happen if additional smoking prevalence reductions occur, is important for communicating the effect of potential smoking policies.

METHODS

In this analysis, we use the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's Future Health Scenarios platform to forecast the effects of three smoking prevalence scenarios on all-cause and cause-specific YLLs and life expectancy at birth until 2050. YLLs were computed for each scenario using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 reference life table and forecasts of cause-specific mortality under each scenario. The reference scenario forecasts what could occur if past smoking prevalence and other risk factor trends continue, the Tobacco Smoking Elimination as of 2023 (Elimination-2023) scenario quantifies the maximum potential future health benefits from assuming zero percent smoking prevalence from 2023 onwards, whereas the Tobacco Smoking Elimination by 2050 (Elimination-2050) scenario provides estimates for countries considering policies to steadily reduce smoking prevalence to 5%. Together, these scenarios underscore the magnitude of health benefits that could be reached by 2050 if countries take decisive action to eliminate smoking. The 95% uncertainty interval (UI) of estimates is based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of draws that were carried through the multistage computational framework.

FINDINGS

Global age-standardised smoking prevalence was estimated to be 28·5% (95% UI 27·9-29·1) among males and 5·96% (5·76-6·21) among females in 2022. In the reference scenario, smoking prevalence declined by 25·9% (25·2-26·6) among males, and 30·0% (26·1-32·1) among females from 2022 to 2050. Under this scenario, we forecast a cumulative 29·3 billion (95% UI 26·8-32·4) overall YLLs among males and 22·2 billion (20·1-24·6) YLLs among females over this period. Life expectancy at birth under this scenario would increase from 73·6 years (95% UI 72·8-74·4) in 2022 to 78·3 years (75·9-80·3) in 2050. Under our Elimination-2023 scenario, we forecast 2·04 billion (95% UI 1·90-2·21) fewer cumulative YLLs by 2050 compared with the reference scenario, and life expectancy at birth would increase to 77·6 years (95% UI 75·1-79·6) among males and 81·0 years (78·5-83·1) among females. Under our Elimination-2050 scenario, we forecast 735 million (675-808) and 141 million (131-154) cumulative YLLs would be avoided among males and females, respectively. Life expectancy in 2050 would increase to 77·1 years (95% UI 74·6-79·0) among males and 80·8 years (78·3-82·9) among females.

INTERPRETATION

Existing tobacco policies must be maintained if smoking prevalence is to continue to decline as forecast by the reference scenario. In addition, substantial smoking-attributable burden can be avoided by accelerating the pace of smoking elimination. Implementation of new tobacco control policies are crucial in avoiding additional smoking-attributable burden in the coming decades and to ensure that the gains won over the past three decades are not lost.

FUNDING

Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.