Residual water losses mediate the trade-off between growth and drought-survival across saplings of 12 tropical rainforest tree species with contrasting hydraulic strategies

Knowledge of the physiological mechanisms underlying species vulnerability to drought is critical to better understand patterns of tree mortality. Investigating plant adaptive strategies to drought should thus help to fill this knowledge gap, especially in tropical rainforests exhibiting high functional diversity. In a semi-controlled drought experiment on 12 rainforest tree species, we investigated the diversity in hydraulic strategies and whether they determined the ability of saplings to use stored non-structural carbohydrates during an extreme imposed drought. We further explored the importance of water- and carbon-use strategies in relation to drought-survival through a modelling approach. Hydraulic strategies varied considerably across species with a continuum between dehydration- tolerance and -avoidance. During dehydration leading to hydraulic failure and irrespective of hydraulic strategies, species showed strong declines in whole-plant starch concentrations and a maintenance or even an increase in soluble sugar concentrations potentially favouring osmotic adjustments. Residual water losses mediated the trade-off between time to hydraulic failure and growth, suggesting that it is linked to the 'fast-slow' continuum of plant performances and that dehydration avoidance is an effective drought-survival strategy at the sapling stage. Further investigations on residual water losses may be key to understanding the response of tropical rainforest tree communities to climate change.

Elucidating climatic drivers of photosynthesis by tropical forests

Tropical forests play a pivotal role in regulating the global carbon cycle. However, the response of these forests to changes in absorbed solar energy and water supply under the changing climate is highly uncertain. Three-year (2018-2021) spaceborne high-resolution measurements of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) provide a new opportunity to study the response of gross primary production (GPP) and more broadly tropical forest carbon dynamics to differences in climate. SIF has been shown to be a good proxy for GPP on monthly and regional scales. Combining tropical climate reanalysis records and other contemporary satellite products, we find that on the seasonal timescale, the dependence of GPP on climate variables is highly heterogeneous. Following the principal component analyses and correlation comparisons, two regimes are identified: water limited and energy limited. GPP variations over tropical Africa are more correlated with water-related factors such as vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and soil moisture, while in tropical Southeast Asia, GPP is more correlated with energy-related factors such as photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and surface temperature. Amazonia is itself heterogeneous: with an energy-limited regime in the north and water-limited regime in the south. The correlations of GPP with climate variables are supported by other observation-based products, such as Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO2) SIF and FluxSat GPP. In each tropical continent, the coupling between SIF and VPD increases with the mean VPD. Even on the interannual timescale, the correlation of GPP with VPD is still discernable, but the sensitivity is smaller than the intra-annual correlation. By and large, the dynamic global vegetation models in the TRENDY v8 project do not capture the high GPP seasonal sensitivity to VPD in dry tropics. The complex interactions between carbon and water cycles in the tropics illustrated in this study and the poor representation of this coupling in the current suite of vegetation models suggest that projections of future changes in carbon dynamics based on these models may not be robust.

Thresholds for persistent leaf photochemical damage predict plant drought resilience in a tropical rainforest

Water stress can cause declines in plant function that persist after rehydration. Recent work has defined 'resilience' traits characterizing leaf resistance to persistent damage from drought, but whether these traits predict resilience in whole-plant function is unknown. It is also unknown whether the coordination between resilience and 'resistance' - the ability to maintain function during drought - observed globally occurs within ecosystems. For eight rainforest species, we dehydrated and subsequently rehydrated leaves, and measured water stress thresholds for declines in rehydration capacity and maximum quantum yield of photosystem II (F_v /F_m ). We tested correlations with embolism resistance and dry season water potentials (Ψ_MD ), and calculated safety margins for damage (Ψ_MD - thresholds) and tested correlations with drought resilience in sap flow and growth. Ψ thresholds for persistent declines in F_v /F_m , indicating resilience, were positively correlated with Ψ_MD and thresholds for leaf vein embolism. Safety margins for persistent declines in F_v /F_m , but not rehydration capacity, were positively correlated with drought resilience in sap flow. Correlations between resistance and resilience suggest that species' differences in performance during drought are perpetuated after drought, potentially accelerating shifts in forest composition. Resilience to photochemical damage emerged as a promising functional trait to characterize whole-plant drought resilience.

Leaf and tree water-use efficiencies of Populus deltoides × P. nigra in mixed forest and agroforestry plantations

In a global context where water will become a scarce resource under temperate latitudes, managing tree plantations with species associations, i.e., forest mixture or agroforestry, could play a major role in optimizing the sustainable use of this resource. Conceptual frameworks in community ecology suggest that, in mixed plantations, environmental resources such as water may be more efficiently used for carbon acquisition and tree growth thanks to niche complementarity among species. To test the hypotheses behind these conceptual frameworks, we estimated water-use efficiency (WUE) for poplar trees grown in a monoculture, in association with alder trees (forest mixture) and in association with clover leys (agroforestry) in an experimental plantation located in northeastern France. Water-use efficiency was estimated (i) at leaf level through gas exchange measurements and analysis of carbon isotope composition, (ii) at wood level through carbon isotope composition and (iii) at tree level with sap flow sensors and growth increment data. We hypothesized that species interactions would increase WUE of poplars in mixtures due to a reduction in competition and/or facilitation effects due to the presence of the N2-fixing species in mixtures. Poplar trees in both mixture types showed higher WUE than those in the monoculture. The differences we found in WUE between the monoculture and the agroforestry treatment were associated to differences in stomatal conductance and light-saturated net CO2 assimilation rate (at the leaf level) and transpiration (at the tree level), while the differences between the monoculture and the forest mixture were more likely due to differences in stomatal conductance at the leaf level and both transpiration and biomass accumulation at the tree level. Moreover, the more WUE was integrated in time (instantaneous gas exchanges < leaf life span < seasonal wood core < whole tree), the more the differences among treatments were marked.

Seasonal variation of leaf thickness: An overlooked component of functional trait variability

The dry and wet seasons in the Neotropics have strong effects on soil water and nutrient availability, as well as on forest dynamics. Despite these major effects on forest ecology, little is known on how leaf traits vary throughout the seasons in tropical rainforest trees. Here, we investigated the influence of seasonal variations in climate and soil characteristics on leaf trait variation in two tropical tree species. We measured two leaf traits, thickness and water mass per area, in 401 individuals of two species of Symphonia (Clusiaceae) in the Paracou research station in French Guiana tropical lowland rainforest. We found a significant effect of seasonal variation on these two leaf traits. Soil relative extractable water was a strong environmental predictor of leaf trait variation in response to seasonal variation. Reduced soil water availability during the dry season was associated with increased leaf thickness and water mass per area, possibly as a result of stomatal closure. Our findings advocate the need to account for environmental seasonality when studying leaf traits in seasonal ecosystems such as tropical forests.

A comprehensive framework for seasonal controls of leaf abscission and productivity in evergreen broadleaved tropical and subtropical forests

Relationships among productivity, leaf phenology, and seasonal variation in moisture and light availability are poorly understood for evergreen broadleaved tropical/subtropical forests, which contribute 25% of terrestrial productivity. On the one hand, as moisture availability declines, trees shed leaves to reduce transpiration and the risk of hydraulic failure. On the other hand, increases in light availability promote the replacement of senescent leaves to increase productivity. Here, we provide a comprehensive framework that relates the seasonality of climate, leaf abscission, and leaf productivity across the evergreen broadleaved tropical/subtropical forest biome. The seasonal correlation between rainfall and light availability varies from strongly negative to strongly positive across the tropics and maps onto the seasonal correlation between litterfall mass and productivity for 68 forests. Where rainfall and light covary positively, litterfall and productivity also covary positively and are always greater in the wetter sunnier season. Where rainfall and light covary negatively, litterfall and productivity are always greater in the drier and sunnier season if moisture supplies remain adequate; otherwise productivity is smaller in the drier sunnier season. This framework will improve the representation of tropical/subtropical forests in Earth system models and suggests how phenology and productivity will change as climate change alters the seasonality of cloud cover and rainfall across tropical/subtropical forests.

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Three climate-phenology regimes are identified across tropical and subtropical forest biomes

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Where light and water limit plant in dry season, litterfall and productivity peak in sunny wet season

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Where light or water alternately limits plant, productivity peaks in wet season with low litterfall

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Where water does not limit plant, litterfall and productivity peak in sunny dry season

Hydraulic traits of Neotropical canopy liana and tree species across a broad range of wood density: implications for predicting drought mortality with models

Wood density (WD) is often used as a proxy for hydraulic traits such as vulnerability to drought-induced xylem cavitation and maximum water transport capacity, with dense-wooded species generally being more resistant to drought-induced xylem cavitation, having lower rates of maximum water transport and lower sapwood capacitance than light-wooded species. However, relationships between WD and the hydraulic traits that they aim to predict have not been well established in tropical forests, where modeling is necessary to predict drought responses for a high diversity of unmeasured species. We evaluated WD and relationships with stem xylem vulnerability by measuring cavitation curves, sapwood water release curves and minimum seasonal water potential (Ψmin) on upper canopy branches of six tree species and three liana species from a single wet tropical forest site in Panama. The objective was to better understand coordination and trade-offs among hydraulic traits and the potential utility of these relationships for modeling purposes. We found that parameters from sapwood water release curves such as capacitance, saturated water content and sapwood turgor loss point (Ψtlp,x) were related to WD, whereas stem vulnerability curve parameters were not. However, the water potential corresponding to 50% loss of hydraulic conductivity (P50) was related to Ψtlp,x and sapwood osmotic potential at full turgor (πo,x). Furthermore, species with lower Ψmin showed lower P50, Ψtlp,x and πo,x suggesting greater drought resistance. Our results indicate that WD is a good easy-to-measure proxy for some traits related to drought resistance, but not others. The ability of hydraulic traits such as P50 and Ψtlp,x to predict mortality must be carefully examined if WD values are to be used to predict drought responses in species without detailed physiological measurements.

Unraveling the relative role of light and water competition between lianas and trees in tropical forests: A vegetation model analysis

Despite their low contribution to forest carbon stocks, lianas (woody vines) play an important role in the carbon dynamics of tropical forests. As structural parasites, they hinder tree survival, growth and fecundity; hence, they negatively impact net ecosystem productivity and long-term carbon sequestration.Competition (for water and light) drives various forest processes and depends on the local abundance of resources over time. However, evaluating the relative role of resource availability on the interactions between lianas and trees from empirical observations is particularly challenging. Previous approaches have used labour-intensive and ecosystem-scale manipulation experiments, which are infeasible in most situations.We propose to circumvent this challenge by evaluating the uncertainty of water and light capture processes of a process-based vegetation model (ED2) including the liana growth form. We further developed the liana plant functional type in ED2 to mechanistically simulate water uptake and transport from roots to leaves, and start the model from prescribed initial conditions. We then used the PEcAn bioinformatics platform to constrain liana parameters and run uncertainty analyses.Baseline runs successfully reproduced ecosystem gas exchange fluxes (gross primary productivity and latent heat) and forest structural features (leaf area index, aboveground biomass) in two sites (Barro Colorado Island, Panama and Paracou, French Guiana) characterized by different rainfall regimes and levels of liana abundance.Model uncertainty analyses revealed that water limitation was the factor driving the competition between trees and lianas at the drier site (BCI), and during the relatively short dry season of the wetter site (Paracou). In young patches, light competition dominated in Paracou but alternated with water competition between the wet and the dry season on BCI according to the model simulations.The modelling workflow also identified key liana traits (photosynthetic quantum efficiency, stomatal regulation parameters, allometric relationships) and processes (water use, respiration, climbing) driving the model uncertainty. They should be considered as priorities for future data acquisition and model development to improve predictions of the carbon dynamics of liana-infested forests. Synthesis. Competition for water plays a larger role in the interaction between lianas and trees than previously hypothesized, as demonstrated by simulations from a process-based vegetation model.

The three major axes of terrestrial ecosystem function

The leaf economics spectrum^1,2 and the global spectrum of plant forms and functions³ revealed fundamental axes of variation in plant traits, which represent different ecological strategies that are shaped by the evolutionary development of plant species². Ecosystem functions depend on environmental conditions and the traits of species that comprise the ecological communities⁴. However, the axes of variation of ecosystem functions are largely unknown, which limits our understanding of how ecosystems respond as a whole to anthropogenic drivers, climate and environmental variability^4,5. Here we derive a set of ecosystem functions⁶ from a dataset of surface gas exchange measurements across major terrestrial biomes. We find that most of the variability within ecosystem functions (71.8%) is captured by three key axes. The first axis reflects maximum ecosystem productivity and is mostly explained by vegetation structure. The second axis reflects ecosystem water-use strategies and is jointly explained by variation in vegetation height and climate. The third axis, which represents ecosystem carbon-use efficiency, features a gradient related to aridity, and is explained primarily by variation in vegetation structure. We show that two state-of-the-art land surface models reproduce the first and most important axis of ecosystem functions. However, the models tend to simulate more strongly correlated functions than those observed, which limits their ability to accurately predict the full range of responses to environmental changes in carbon, water and energy cycling in terrestrial ecosystems^7,8.

Ecosystem transpiration and evaporation: Insights from three water flux partitioning methods across FLUXNET sites

We apply and compare three widely applicable methods for estimating ecosystem transpiration (T) from eddy covariance (EC) data across 251 FLUXNET sites globally. All three methods are based on the coupled water and carbon relationship, but they differ in assumptions and parameterizations. Intercomparison of the three daily T estimates shows high correlation among methods (R between .89 and .94), but a spread in magnitudes of T/ET (evapotranspiration) from 45% to 77%. When compared at six sites with concurrent EC and sap flow measurements, all three EC-based T estimates show higher correlation to sap flow-based T than EC-based ET. The partitioning methods show expected tendencies of T/ET increasing with dryness (vapor pressure deficit and days since rain) and with leaf area index (LAI). Analysis of 140 sites with high-quality estimates for at least two continuous years shows that T/ET variability was 1.6 times higher across sites than across years. Spatial variability of T/ET was primarily driven by vegetation and soil characteristics (e.g., crop or grass designation, minimum annual LAI, soil coarse fragment volume) rather than climatic variables such as mean/standard deviation of temperature or precipitation. Overall, T and T/ET patterns are plausible and qualitatively consistent among the different water flux partitioning methods implying a significant advance made for estimating and understanding T globally, while the magnitudes remain uncertain. Our results represent the first extensive EC data-based estimates of ecosystem T permitting a data-driven perspective on the role of plants' water use for global water and carbon cycling in a changing climate.

Tree mode of death and mortality risk factors across Amazon forests

The carbon sink capacity of tropical forests is substantially affected by tree mortality. However, the main drivers of tropical tree death remain largely unknown. Here we present a pan-Amazonian assessment of how and why trees die, analysing over 120,000 trees representing > 3800 species from 189 long-term RAINFOR forest plots. While tree mortality rates vary greatly Amazon-wide, on average trees are as likely to die standing as they are broken or uprooted-modes of death with different ecological consequences. Species-level growth rate is the single most important predictor of tree death in Amazonia, with faster-growing species being at higher risk. Within species, however, the slowest-growing trees are at greatest risk while the effect of tree size varies across the basin. In the driest Amazonian region species-level bioclimatic distributional patterns also predict the risk of death, suggesting that these forests are experiencing climatic conditions beyond their adaptative limits. These results provide not only a holistic pan-Amazonian picture of tree death but large-scale evidence for the overarching importance of the growth-survival trade-off in driving tropical tree mortality.

Impacts of Degradation on Water, Energy, and Carbon Cycling of the Amazon Tropical Forests

Selective logging, fragmentation, and understory fires directly degrade forest structure and composition. However, studies addressing the effects of forest degradation on carbon, water, and energy cycles are scarce. Here, we integrate field observations and high-resolution remote sensing from airborne lidar to provide realistic initial conditions to the Ecosystem Demography Model (ED-2.2) and investigate how disturbances from forest degradation affect gross primary production (GPP), evapotranspiration (ET), and sensible heat flux (H). We used forest structural information retrieved from airborne lidar samples (13,500 ha) and calibrated with 817 inventory plots (0.25 ha) across precipitation and degradation gradients in the eastern Amazon as initial conditions to ED-2.2 model. Our results show that the magnitude and seasonality of fluxes were modulated by changes in forest structure caused by degradation. During the dry season and under typical conditions, severely degraded forests (biomass loss ≥66%) experienced water stress with declines in ET (up to 34%) and GPP (up to 35%) and increases of H (up to 43%) and daily mean ground temperatures (up to 6.5°C) relative to intact forests. In contrast, the relative impact of forest degradation on energy, water, and carbon cycles markedly diminishes under extreme, multiyear droughts, as a consequence of severe stress experienced by intact forests. Our results highlight that the water and energy cycles in the Amazon are driven by not only climate and deforestation but also the past disturbance and changes of forest structure from degradation, suggesting a much broader influence of human land use activities on the tropical ecosystems.

The FLUXNET2015 dataset and the ONEFlux processing pipeline for eddy covariance data

The FLUXNET2015 dataset provides ecosystem-scale data on CO₂, water, and energy exchange between the biosphere and the atmosphere, and other meteorological and biological measurements, from 212 sites around the globe (over 1500 site-years, up to and including year 2014). These sites, independently managed and operated, voluntarily contributed their data to create global datasets. Data were quality controlled and processed using uniform methods, to improve consistency and intercomparability across sites. The dataset is already being used in a number of applications, including ecophysiology studies, remote sensing studies, and development of ecosystem and Earth system models. FLUXNET2015 includes derived-data products, such as gap-filled time series, ecosystem respiration and photosynthetic uptake estimates, estimation of uncertainties, and metadata about the measurements, presented for the first time in this paper. In addition, 206 of these sites are for the first time distributed under a Creative Commons (CC-BY 4.0) license. This paper details this enhanced dataset and the processing methods, now made available as open-source codes, making the dataset more accessible, transparent, and reproducible.

Measurement(s)	net ecosystem exchange • carbon dioxide • water • energy
Technology Type(s)	eddy covariance • measurement device
Sample Characteristic - Environment	terrestrial biome • atmosphere
Sample Characteristic - Location	Earth (planet)

Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data: 10.6084/m9.figshare.12295910

Modeling the impact of liana infestation on the demography and carbon cycle of tropical forests

There is mounting empirical evidence that lianas affect the carbon cycle of tropical forests. However, no single vegetation model takes into account this growth form, although such efforts could greatly improve the predictions of carbon dynamics in tropical forests. In this study, we incorporated a novel mechanistic representation of lianas in a dynamic global vegetation model (the Ecosystem Demography Model). We developed a liana-specific plant functional type and mechanisms representing liana-tree interactions (such as light competition, liana-specific allometries, and attachment to host trees) and parameterized them according to a comprehensive literature meta-analysis. We tested the model for an old-growth forest (Paracou, French Guiana) and a secondary forest (Gigante Peninsula, Panama). The resulting model simulations captured many features of the two forests characterized by different levels of liana infestation as revealed by a systematic comparison of the model outputs with empirical data, including local census data from forest inventories, eddy flux tower data, and terrestrial laser scanner-derived forest vertical structure. The inclusion of lianas in the simulations reduced the secondary forest net productivity by up to 0.46 t_C  ha^-1  year^-1 , which corresponds to a limited relative reduction of 2.6% in comparison with a reference simulation without lianas. However, this resulted in significantly reduced accumulated above-ground biomass after 70 years of regrowth by up to 20 t_C /ha (19% of the reference simulation). Ultimately, the simulated negative impact of lianas on the total biomass was almost completely cancelled out when the forest reached an old-growth successional stage. Our findings suggest that lianas negatively influence the forest potential carbon sink strength, especially for young, disturbed, liana-rich sites. In light of the critical role that lianas play in the profound changes currently experienced by tropical forests, this new model provides a robust numerical tool to forecast the impact of lianas on tropical forest carbon sinks.

Prolonged warming and drought modify belowground interactions for water among coexisting plants

Understanding how climate alters plant-soil water dynamics, and its impact on physiological functions, is critical to improved predictions of vegetation responses to climate change. Here we analyzed how belowground interactions for water shift under warming and drought, and associated impacts on plant functions. In a semi-arid woodland, adult trees (piñon and juniper) and perennial grasses (blue grama) were exposed to warming and precipitation reduction. After 6 years of continuous treatment exposure, soil and plant water isotopic composition was measured to assess plant water uptake depths and community-level water source partitioning. Warming and drought modified plant water uptake depths. Under warming, contrasting changes in water sources between grasses and trees reduced belowground water source partitioning, resulting in higher interspecific competition for water. Under drought, shifts in trees and grass water sources to deeper soil layers resulted in the maintenance of the naturally occurring water source partitioning among species. Trees showed higher water stress, and reduced water use and photosynthesis in response to warming and drought. This case study demonstrates that neighboring plants shift their competitive interactions for water under prolonged warming and drought, but regardless of whether changes in moisture sources will result in increased competition among species or maintained partitioning of water resources, these competitive adaptations may easily be overridden by climate extremes.

Compositional response of Amazon forests to climate change

Most of the planet's diversity is concentrated in the tropics, which includes many regions undergoing rapid climate change. Yet, while climate-induced biodiversity changes are widely documented elsewhere, few studies have addressed this issue for lowland tropical ecosystems. Here we investigate whether the floristic and functional composition of intact lowland Amazonian forests have been changing by evaluating records from 106 long-term inventory plots spanning 30 years. We analyse three traits that have been hypothesized to respond to different environmental drivers (increase in moisture stress and atmospheric CO2 concentrations): maximum tree size, biogeographic water-deficit affiliation and wood density. Tree communities have become increasingly dominated by large-statured taxa, but to date there has been no detectable change in mean wood density or water deficit affiliation at the community level, despite most forest plots having experienced an intensification of the dry season. However, among newly recruited trees, dry-affiliated genera have become more abundant, while the mortality of wet-affiliated genera has increased in those plots where the dry season has intensified most. Thus, a slow shift to a more dry-affiliated Amazonia is underway, with changes in compositional dynamics (recruits and mortality) consistent with climate-change drivers, but yet to significantly impact whole-community composition. The Amazon observational record suggests that the increase in atmospheric CO2 is driving a shift within tree communities to large-statured species and that climate changes to date will impact forest composition, but long generation times of tropical trees mean that biodiversity change is lagging behind climate change.

Aboveground overyielding in a mixed temperate forest is not explained by belowground processes

The relationship between forest productivity and tree species diversity has been described in detail, but the underlying processes have yet to be identified. One important issue is to understand which processes are at the origin of observed aboveground overyielding in some mixed forests. We used a beech-maple plantation exhibiting aboveground overyielding to test whether belowground processes could explain this pattern. Soil cores were collected to determine fine root (FR) biomass and vertical distribution. Correlograms were used to detect spatial arrangement. Near-infrared reflectance spectroscopy was used to identify the tree species proportion in the FR samples and spatial root segregation. An isotopic approach was used to identify water acquisition patterns. The structure and the composition of the ectomycorrhizal fungal community were determined by high-throughput sequencing of DNA in the soil samples. We found no spatial pattern for FR biomass or for its vertical distribution along the gradients. No vertical root segregation was found, as FR density for both species decreased with depth in a similar way. The two species displayed similar vertical water acquisition profiles as well, mainly absorbing water from shallow soil layers; hence, niche differentiation for water acquisition was not highlighted here. Significant alterations in the fungal community compositions were detected in function of the percentage of maple in the vicinity of beech. Our findings do not support the commonly suggested drivers of aboveground overyielding in species-diverse forests and suggest that competition reduction or between-species facilitation of belowground resource acquisition may not explain the observed aboveground overyielding.

Extreme droughts affecting Mediterranean tree species' growth and water-use efficiency: the importance of timing

It has been known for a long time that drought intensity is a critical variable in determining water stress of Mediterranean tree species. However, not as much attention has been paid to other drought characteristics, for example the timing of the dry periods. We investigated the impact of the timing and intensity of extreme droughts on growing season length, growth and water-use efficiency of three tree species, Pinus nigra ssp. Salzmannii J.F. Arnold, Quercus ilex ssp. ballota (Desf.) Samp. and Quercus faginea Lam. coexisting in a continental Mediterranean ecosystem. Over the study period (2009-13), intense droughts were observed at annual and seasonal scales, particularly during 2011 and 2012. In 2012, an atypically dry winter and spring was followed by an intense summer drought. Quercus faginea growth was affected more by drought timing than by drought intensity, probably because of its winter-deciduous leaf habit. Pinus nigra showed a lower decrease in secondary growth than observed in the two Quercus species in extremely dry years. Resilience to extreme droughts was different among species, with Q. faginea showing poorer recovery of growth after very dry years. The highest intra- and inter-annual plasticity in water-use efficiency was observed in P. nigra, which maintained a more water-saving strategy. Our results revealed that the timing of extreme drought events can affect tree function to a larger extent than drought intensity, especially in deciduous species. Legacy effects of drought over months and years significantly strengthened the impact of drought timing and intensity on tree function.

Ecosystem heterogeneity and diversity mitigate Amazon forest resilience to frequent extreme droughts

The impact of increases in drought frequency on the Amazon forest's composition, structure and functioning remain uncertain. We used a process- and individual-based ecosystem model (ED2) to quantify the forest's vulnerability to increased drought recurrence. We generated meteorologically realistic, drier-than-observed rainfall scenarios for two Amazon forest sites, Paracou (wetter) and Tapajós (drier), to evaluate the impacts of more frequent droughts on forest biomass, structure and composition. The wet site was insensitive to the tested scenarios, whereas at the dry site biomass declined when average rainfall reduction exceeded 15%, due to high mortality of large-sized evergreen trees. Biomass losses persisted when year-long drought recurrence was shorter than 2-7 yr, depending upon soil texture and leaf phenology. From the site-level scenario results, we developed regionally applicable metrics to quantify the Amazon forest's climatological proximity to rainfall regimes likely to cause biomass loss > 20% in 50 yr according to ED2 predictions. Nearly 25% (1.8 million km² ) of the Amazon forests could experience frequent droughts and biomass loss if mean annual rainfall or interannual variability changed by 2σ. At least 10% of the high-emission climate projections (CMIP5/RCP8.5 models) predict critically dry regimes over 25% of the Amazon forest area by 2100.