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Redelmeier DA. Thinking Fast, Slow, and Forever: Daniel Kahneman Obituary. Med Decis Making 2024:272989X241256121. [PMID: 38819115 DOI: 10.1177/0272989x241256121] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/01/2024]
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Sinyor M, Ekstein D, Prabaharan N, Fiksenbaum L, Vandermeer C, Schaffer A, Pirkis J, Heisel MJ, Goldstein BI, Redelmeier DA, Taylor P, Niederkrotenthaler T. Changes in Media Reporting Quality and Suicides Following National Media Engagement on Responsible Reporting of Suicide in Canada: Changements de la Qualité des reportages dans les médias sur les suicides suite à l'engagement des médias nationaux à la déclaration responsable du suicide au Canada. CANADIAN JOURNAL OF PSYCHIATRY. REVUE CANADIENNE DE PSYCHIATRIE 2024; 69:358-368. [PMID: 38174363 PMCID: PMC11032096 DOI: 10.1177/07067437231223334] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/05/2024]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Responsible media reporting is an accepted strategy for preventing suicide. In 2015, suicide prevention experts launched a media engagement initiative aimed at improving suicide-related reporting in Canada; its impact on media reporting quality and suicide deaths is unknown. METHOD This pre-post observational study examined changes in reporting characteristics in a random sample of suicide-related articles from major publications in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) media market. Articles (n = 900) included 450 from the 6-year periods prior to and after the initiative began. We also examined changes in suicide counts in the GTA between these epochs. We used chi-square tests to analyse changes in reporting characteristics and time-series analyses to identify changes in suicide counts. Secondary outcomes focused on guidelines developed by media professionals in Canada and how they may have influenced media reporting quality as well as on the overarching narrative of media articles during the most recent years of available data. RESULTS Across-the-board improvement was observed in suicide-related reporting with substantial reductions in many elements of putatively harmful content and substantial increases in all aspects of putatively protective content. However, overarching article narratives remained potentially harmful with 55.2% of articles telling the story of someone's death and 20.8% presenting an other negative message. Only 3.6% of articles told a story of survival. After controlling for potential confounders, a nonsignificant numeric decrease in suicide counts was identified after initiative implementation (ω = -5.41, SE = 3.43, t = 1.58, p = 0.12). CONCLUSIONS We found evidence that a strategy to engage media in Canada changed the content of reporting, but there was only a nonsignificant trend towards fewer suicides. A more fundamental change in media narratives to focus on survival rather than death appears warranted.
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Redelmeier DA, Staples JA. Fatal Traffic Risks With a Total Solar Eclipse in the US. JAMA Intern Med 2024; 184:575-577. [PMID: 38526467 PMCID: PMC10964155 DOI: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2023.5234] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/19/2023] [Accepted: 08/17/2023] [Indexed: 03/26/2024]
Abstract
This case-control study describes the incidence of fatal traffic crashes in the US during the 2017 total solar eclipse.
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Adler-Milstein J, Redelmeier DA, Wachter RM. The Limits of Clinician Vigilance as an AI Safety Bulwark. JAMA 2024; 331:1173-1174. [PMID: 38483397 DOI: 10.1001/jama.2024.3620] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/10/2024]
Abstract
This Viewpoint examines the potential problems of clinician reliance on the use of artificial intelligence (AI) in health care and offers suggestions on how AI could be designed to promote clinician vigilance.
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Staples JA, Erdelyi S, Merchant K, Yip C, Khan M, Maclure KM, Redelmeier DA, Chan H, Brubacher JR. Syncope and Traffic Crash: A Population-Based Case-Crossover Analysis. Can J Cardiol 2024; 40:554-561. [PMID: 37290537 DOI: 10.1016/j.cjca.2023.05.019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/21/2023] [Revised: 05/05/2023] [Accepted: 05/31/2023] [Indexed: 06/10/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Among individuals with recent syncope, recurrence of syncope while driving might incapacitate a driver and cause a motor vehicle crash. Current driving restrictions assume that some forms of syncope transiently increase crash risk. We evaluated whether syncope is associated with a transient increase in crash risk. METHODS We performed a case-crossover analysis of linked administrative health and driving data from British Columbia, Canada (2010 to 2015). We included licensed drivers who visited an emergency department with "syncope and collapse" and who were involved as a driver in an eligible motor vehicle crash, both within the study interval. Using conditional logistic regression, we compared the rate of emergency visits for syncope in the 28 days before crash (the "pre-crash interval") with the rate of emergency visits for syncope in 3 self-matched 28-day control intervals (ending 6, 12, and 18 months before the crash). RESULTS Among eligible crash-involved drivers, 47 of 3026 pre-crash intervals and 112 of 9078 control intervals had emergency visits for syncope, indicating syncope was not significantly associated with subsequent crash (1.6% vs 1.2%; adjusted odds ratio [OR], 1.27; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.90-1.79; P = 0.18). There was no significant association between syncope and crash in subgroups at higher risk for adverse outcomes after syncope (eg, age > 65 years, cardiovascular disease, cardiac syncope). CONCLUSIONS In the context of prevailing modifications of driving behaviour after syncope, an emergency department visit for syncope did not transiently increase the risk of subsequent traffic collision. Overall crash risks after syncope appear to be adequately addressed by current driving restrictions.
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Redelmeier DA, Bhatt V. Dementia, Driving, and the Duty to Warn. JAMA Netw Open 2024; 7:e248856. [PMID: 38662375 DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.8856] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/26/2024] Open
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Redelmeier DA, Wang J, Drover SSM. COVID Vaccine Hesitancy and Long-Term Traffic Risks. Am J Med 2024; 137:227-235.e6. [PMID: 37890570 DOI: 10.1016/j.amjmed.2023.10.020] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/27/2023] [Revised: 10/07/2023] [Accepted: 10/09/2023] [Indexed: 10/29/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND COVID vaccine hesitancy identifies a discrepancy between personal decisions and public guidelines. We tested whether COVID vaccine hesitancy was associated with the long-term risks of a traffic crash. METHODS We conducted a population-based longitudinal cohort analysis of adults by determining COVID vaccination status through linkages to electronic medical records. Traffic crashes requiring emergency medical care were defined by multicenter outcome ascertainment of all hospitals throughout the region over the subsequent year. RESULTS We identified 11,598,549 total individuals, of whom 1,210,754 had not received a COVID vaccine. A total of 54,558 were subsequently injured in traffic crashes during the 1-year follow-up interval, equal to a risk of 4704 per million. Those who had not received a COVID vaccine had a 58% higher risk than those who had received a COVID vaccine (6983 vs 4438 per million, P < .001). The increased traffic risks among unvaccinated individuals included diverse subgroups, were accentuated for single-vehicle crashes, extended to fatal outcomes, exceeded the risks associated with sleep apnea, and persisted after adjustment for baseline characteristics. The increased risks were validated in analyses using Artificial Intelligence techniques and generally larger than the risks of other adverse events frequently ascribed to COVID vaccination. CONCLUSIONS COVID vaccine hesitancy is associated with significant increased long-term risks of a traffic crash. A greater awareness of traffic risks might encourage patients to take protective actions for personal safety.
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Staples JA, Erdelyi S, Merchant K, Yip C, Khan M, Redelmeier DA, Chan H, Brubacher JR. Syncope While Driving and the Risk of a Subsequent Motor Vehicle Crash. Ann Emerg Med 2024; 83:147-157. [PMID: 37943207 DOI: 10.1016/j.annemergmed.2023.09.015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/13/2023] [Revised: 09/06/2023] [Accepted: 09/18/2023] [Indexed: 11/10/2023]
Abstract
STUDY OBJECTIVE Syncope that occurs while driving can result in a motor vehicle crash. Whether individuals with a prior syncope-related crash exhibit an exceptional risk of subsequent crash remains uncertain. METHODS We performed a population-based retrospective observational study of patients diagnosed with 'syncope and collapse' at any of 6 emergency departments in British Columbia, Canada (2010 to 2015). Data were obtained from chart abstraction, administrative health records, insurance claims and police crash reports. We compared crash-free survival among individuals with crash-associated syncope (a crash and an emergency visit for syncope on the same date) to that among controls with syncope alone (no crash on date of emergency visit for syncope). RESULTS In the year following their index emergency visit, 13 of 63 drivers with crash-associated syncope and 852 of 9,160 controls with syncope alone experienced a subsequent crash as a driver (crash risk 21% versus 9%). After accounting for censoring and potential confounders, crash-associated syncope was not associated with a significant increase in the risk of subsequent crash (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.38, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.78 to 2.47). Individuals with crash-associated syncope were 31-fold more likely to have physician driving advice documented during their index visit (prevalence ratio 31.0, 95% CI, 21.3 to 45.1). In the subgroup without documented driving advice, crash-associated syncope was associated with a significant increase in subsequent crash risk (aHR 1.88, 95% CI 1.06 to 3.36). CONCLUSIONS Crash risk after crash-associated syncope appears similar to crash risk after syncope alone.
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Manzoor F, Lefkowitz A, Redelmeier DA. On-call absences and academic recognition: A retrospective cohort analysis. MEDICAL EDUCATION 2024; 58:196-203. [PMID: 37102508 DOI: 10.1111/medu.15106] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/14/2022] [Revised: 04/03/2023] [Accepted: 04/12/2023] [Indexed: 06/19/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Resident call schedules require careful planning and are vulnerable to unanticipated absences from unpredictable factors. We tested whether unplanned absences from resident call schedules were associated with the likelihood of subsequent academic recognition. METHODS We examined unplanned absences from call shifts for internal medicine residents at the University of Toronto from 2014 to 2022 (8 years). We identified institutional awards granted at the end of the academic year as an indicator of academic recognition. We defined the resident-year as the unit-of-analysis that started in July and ended in June of the subsequent year. Secondary analyses examined the association between unplanned absences and the likelihood of academic recognition in later years. RESULTS We identified 1668 resident-years of training in internal medicine. In total, 579 (35%) had an unplanned absence, and the remaining 1089 (65%) had no unplanned absence. Baseline characteristics were similar between the two groups of residents. In total, 301 awards were received for academic recognition. The likelihood of receiving an award at the end of the year was 31% lower for residents who had any unplanned absence compared with those who had no absence (adjusted odds ratio = 0.69, 95% confidence interval 0.51-0.93, p = 0.015). The likelihood of receiving an award was further decreased for residents with multiple unplanned absences compared with those with none (odds ratio 0.54, 95% confidence interval 0.33-0.83, p = 0.008). An absence during the first year of residency was not significantly associated with the likelihood of academic recognition in later years of training (odds ratio 0.62, 95% confidence interval 0.36-1.04, p = 0.081). CONCLUSIONS The results of this analysis suggest unplanned absences from scheduled call shifts may be associated with a decreased likelihood of academic recognition for internal medicine residents. This association could reflect countless confounders or the prevailing culture of medicine.
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Gaetani M, Parshuram CS, Redelmeier DA. Furosemide in pediatric intensive care: a retrospective cohort analysis. Front Pediatr 2024; 11:1306498. [PMID: 38293664 PMCID: PMC10824983 DOI: 10.3389/fped.2023.1306498] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/03/2023] [Accepted: 12/21/2023] [Indexed: 02/01/2024] Open
Abstract
Introduction Furosemide is the most commonly used medication in pediatric intensive care. Growing data indicates improved hemodynamic stability and efficacy of furosemide infusions compared to intermittent injections, thereby suggesting furosemide infusions might be considered as first line therapy in critically ill, paediatric patients. The objective of this study is to examine furosemide treatment as either continuous infusions or intermittent injections and subsequent patient outcomes. Methods This is a retrospective cohort analysis of patients treated in a pediatric intensive care unit (ICU) over a nine year period (July 31st 2006 and July 31, 2015). Eligible patients were admitted to either the general pediatric or cardiac specific ICU for a duration of at least 6 hours and who received intravenous furosemide treatment. Results A total of 7,478 patients were identified who received a total of 118,438 furosemide administrations for a total of 113,951 (96%) intermittent doses and 4,487 (4%) infusions running for a total of 1,588,750 hours. A total of 5,996 (80%) patients received exclusively furosemide injections and 1,482 (20%) patients received at least one furosemide infusion. A total of 193 patients died during ICU admission, amounting to 87 (6%) of the 1,482 patients who received an infusion and 106 (2%) of the 5,996 who received intermittent injections. Multivariable regression analysis showed no statistically significant decrease in adjusted mortality for patients who received furosemide injections compared to furosemide infusions (aOR 1.20, CI 0.76-1.89). Discussion This retrospective study observed similar mortality for patients who received furosemide infusions compared to furosemide injections. More research on furosemide in the ICU could provide insights on fluid management, drug effectiveness, and pharmacologic stewardship for critically ill children.
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Shakil H, Malhotra AK, Badhiwala JH, Karthikeyan V, Essa A, He Y, Fehlings MG, Sahgal A, Dea N, Kiss A, Witiw CD, Redelmeier DA, Wilson JR. Contemporary trends in the incidence and timing of spinal metastases: A population-based study. Neurooncol Adv 2024; 6:vdae051. [PMID: 38680988 PMCID: PMC11046986 DOI: 10.1093/noajnl/vdae051] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/01/2024] Open
Abstract
Background Spinal metastases are a significant complication of advanced cancer. In this study, we assess temporal trends in the incidence and timing of spinal metastases and examine underlying patient demographics and primary cancer associations. Methods In this population-based retrospective cohort study, health data from 2007 to 2019 in Ontario, Canada were analyzed (n = 37, 375 patients identified with spine metastases). Primary outcomes were annual incidence of spinal metastasis, and time to metastasis after primary diagnosis. Results The age-standardized incidence of spinal metastases increased from 229 to 302 cases per million over the 13-year study period. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in incidence was 2.2% (95% CI: 1.4% to 3.0%) with patients aged ≥85 years demonstrating the largest increase (AAPC 5.2%; 95% CI: 2.3% to 8.3%). Lung cancer had the greatest annual incidence, while prostate cancer had the greatest increase in annual incidence (AAPC 6.5; 95% CI: 4.1% to 9.0%). Lung cancer patients were found to have the highest risk of spine metastasis with 10.3% (95% CI: 10.1% to 10.5%) of patients being diagnosed at 10 years. Gastrointestinal cancer patients were found to have the lowest risk of spine metastasis with 1.0% (95% CI: 0.9% to 1.0%) of patients being diagnosed at 10 years. Conclusions The incidence of spinal metastases has increased in recent years, particularly among older patients. The incidence and timing vary substantially among different primary cancer types. These findings contribute to the understanding of disease trends and emphasize a growing population of patients who require subspecialty care.
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Redelmeier DA, Zipursky JS. A Dose of Reality About Dose-Response Relationships. J Gen Intern Med 2023; 38:3604-3609. [PMID: 37783979 PMCID: PMC10713937 DOI: 10.1007/s11606-023-08395-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/27/2023] [Accepted: 08/24/2023] [Indexed: 10/04/2023]
Abstract
Observational research can be strengthened by examining potential dose-response relationships that correlate a clinical intervention with a patient outcome. Despite being a classic criterion for establishing causality, dose-response testing can be difficult to interpret in clinical medicine due to multiple diverse pitfalls. This review introduces a cautionary framework for investigators considering dose-response relationships in observational research to support evidence-based medicine. Each pitfall is illustrated with a specific example relevant when analyzing a dose-response relationship. Several pitfalls stem from faulty interpretation including confounding by indication and fallible range selection. Additional pitfalls relate to improper analysis including fitting a nonlinear model and misclassification error. Further pitfalls arise in special situations including subjective self-report and artifacts from survival bias. These caveats are common sources of misunderstanding in analyses that examine the link between varying exposures and the intensity of clinical outcomes. Awareness of specific pitfalls, we suggest, might help advance the conduct, application, and translation of dose-response relationships in observational research to inform evidence-based medical care.
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Redelmeier DA, Namakian S. The Planning Fallacy in Patients With Chronic Lung Disease. JAMA Netw Open 2023; 6:e2343988. [PMID: 37988081 DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.43988] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2023] Open
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Redelmeier DA, Shafir E. Persistent Challenges to a Single Diagnosis. Med Decis Making 2023; 43:758-759. [PMID: 37706472 DOI: 10.1177/0272989x231197828] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 09/15/2023]
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Raza S, Thiruchelvam D, Redelmeier DA. Costs for Long-Term Health Care After a Police Shooting in Ontario, Canada. JAMA Netw Open 2023; 6:e2335831. [PMID: 37768661 PMCID: PMC10539992 DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.35831] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/28/2023] [Accepted: 08/22/2023] [Indexed: 09/29/2023] Open
Abstract
Importance Police shootings can cause serious acute injury, and knowledge of subsequent health outcomes may inform interventions to improve care. Objective To analyze long-term health care costs among survivors of police shootings compared with those surviving nonfirearm police enforcement injuries using a retrospective design. Design, Setting, and Participants This population-based cohort analysis identified adults (age ≥16 years) who were injured by police and required emergency medical care between April 1, 2002, and March 31, 2022, in Ontario, Canada. Exposure Police shootings compared with other mechanisms of injury involving police. Main Outcomes and Measures Long-term health care costs determined using a validated costing algorithm. Secondary outcomes included short-term mortality, acute care treatments, and rates of subsequent disability. Results Over the study, 13 545 adults were injured from police enforcement (mean [SD] age, 35 [12] years; 11 637 males [86%]). A total of 13 520 individuals survived acute injury, and 8755 had long-term financial data available (88 surviving firearm injury, 8667 surviving nonfirearm injury). Patients surviving firearm injury had 3 times greater health care costs per year (CAD$16 223 vs CAD$5412; mean increase, CAD$9967; 95% CI, 6697-13 237; US $11 982 vs US $3997; mean increase, US $7361; 95% CI, 4946-9776; P < .001). Greater costs after a firearm injury were not explained by baseline costs and primarily reflected increased psychiatric care. Other characteristics associated with increased long-term health care costs included prior mental illness and a substance use diagnosis. Conclusions and Relevance In this longitudinal cohort study of long-term health care costs, patients surviving a police shooting had substantial health care costs compared with those injured from other forms of police enforcement. Costs primarily reflected psychiatric care and suggest the need to prioritize early recognition and prevention.
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Popovic MM, Muni RH, Kertes PJ, Thiruchelvam D, Chaban YV, Qian J, Hillier R, Redelmeier DA. A Population-Based Analysis of Long-Term Costs and Adverse Events after Pneumatic Retinopexy and Pars Plana Vitrectomy. Ophthalmol Retina 2023; 7:794-803. [PMID: 37286134 DOI: 10.1016/j.oret.2023.05.021] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/13/2023] [Revised: 05/16/2023] [Accepted: 05/30/2023] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
PURPOSE To comprehensively examine the cost effectiveness, reattachment rate, and complications of pneumatic retinopexy (PnR) compared with pars plana vitrectomy (PPV) for rhegmatogenous retinal detachment (RRD) within a universal health care system. DESIGN Population-based, multicenter, consecutive, retrospective longitudinal cohort analysis. SUBJECTS We identified consecutive adults aged ≥ 50 years requiring surgery for primary RRD over a 20-year interval between April 1, 2002, and March 31, 2022. Initial surgery was considered the index date for analyses. INTERVENTION Pneumatic retinopexy was compared with PPV in all analyses. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES The primary analysis investigated the mean annualized health care costs comparing PnR to PPV over the 2 years after initial surgery. Secondary analyses examined the primary reattachment rate and complications. RESULTS In total, 25 665 eligible patients were identified, with 8794 undergoing PnR and 16 871 undergoing PPV. The mean patient age was 65 years and 39% were women. The mean annualized cost after PnR was $8924 and $11 937 after PPV (mean difference, $3013; 95% confidence interval, $2533-$3493; P < 0.001). The primary reattachment rate at 90 days after PnR was 83% and after PPV was 93% (P < 0.001). The risk of cataract or glaucoma surgery was lower after PnR, and the frequency of ophthalmology clinic visits, intravitreal injections, and anxiety was higher after PnR. Hospitalizations and long-term disability were less frequent after PnR. CONCLUSIONS Pneumatic retinopexy, when compared with PPV, was associated with lower long-term health care costs. Pneumatic retinopexy appeared to be effective, safe, and inexpensive, thus offering a viable option for improving access to RRD repair in appropriately selected cases. FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE(S) Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.
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Matthewman J, Tadrous M, Mansfield KE, Thiruchelvam D, Redelmeier DA, Cheung AM, Lega IC, Prieto-Alhambra D, Cunliffe LA, Mulick A, Henderson A, Langan SM, Drucker AM. Association of Different Prescribing Patterns for Oral Corticosteroids With Fracture Preventive Care Among Older Adults in the UK and Ontario. JAMA Dermatol 2023; 159:961-969. [PMID: 37556153 PMCID: PMC10413212 DOI: 10.1001/jamadermatol.2023.2495] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/12/2023] [Accepted: 06/09/2023] [Indexed: 08/10/2023]
Abstract
Importance Identifying and mitigating modifiable gaps in fracture preventive care for people with relapsing-remitting conditions such as eczema, asthma, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease who are prescribed high cumulative oral corticosteroid doses may decrease fracture-associated morbidity and mortality. Objective To estimate the association between different oral corticosteroid prescribing patterns and appropriate fracture preventive care, including treatment with fracture preventive care medications, among older adults with high cumulative oral corticosteroid exposure. Design, Setting, and Participants This cohort study included 65 195 participants with UK electronic medical record data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (January 2, 1998, to January 31, 2020) and 28 674 participants with Ontario, Canada, health administrative data from ICES (April 1, 2002, to September 30, 2020). Participants were adults 66 years or older with eczema, asthma, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease receiving prescriptions for oral corticosteroids with cumulative prednisolone equivalent doses of 450 mg or higher within 6 months. Data were analyzed October 22, 2020, to September 6, 2022. Exposures Participants with prescriptions crossing the 450-mg cumulative oral corticosteroid threshold in less than 90 days were classified as having high-intensity prescriptions, and participants crossing the threshold in 90 days or more as having low-intensity prescriptions. Multiple alternative exposure definitions were used in sensitivity analyses. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome was prescribed fracture preventive care. A secondary outcome was major osteoporotic fracture. Individuals were followed up from the date they crossed the cumulative oral corticosteroid threshold until their outcome or the end of follow-up (up to 1 year after index date). Rates were calculated for fracture preventive care and fractures, and hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated from Cox proportional hazards regression models comparing high- vs low-intensity oral corticosteroid prescriptions. Results In both the UK cohort of 65 195 participants (mean [IQR] age, 75 [71-81] years; 32 981 [50.6%] male) and the Ontario cohort of 28 674 participants (mean [IQR] age, 73 [69-79] years; 17 071 [59.5%] male), individuals with high-intensity oral corticosteroid prescriptions had substantially higher rates of fracture preventive care than individuals with low-intensity prescriptions (UK: 134 vs 57 per 1000 person-years; crude HR, 2.34; 95% CI, 2.19-2.51, and Ontario: 73 vs 48 per 1000 person-years; crude HR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.29-1.72). People with high- and low-intensity oral corticosteroid prescriptions had similar rates of major osteoporotic fractures (UK: crude rates, 14 vs 13 per 1000 person-years; crude HR, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.98-1.15 and Ontario: crude rates, 20 vs 23 per 1000 person-years; crude HR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.79-0.96). Results from sensitivity analyses suggested that reaching a high cumulative oral corticosteroid dose within a shorter time, with fewer prescriptions, or with fewer or shorter gaps between prescriptions, increased fracture preventive care prescribing. Conclusions The results of this cohort study suggest that older adults prescribed high cumulative oral corticosteroids across multiple prescriptions, or with many or long gaps between prescriptions, may be missing opportunities for fracture preventive care.
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Redelmeier DA, Wang J, Thiruchelvam D. The Reply. Am J Med 2023; 136:e180-e181. [PMID: 37612021 DOI: 10.1016/j.amjmed.2023.04.038] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/25/2023] [Accepted: 04/26/2023] [Indexed: 08/25/2023]
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Manzoor F, Redelmeier DA. COVID-19 deaths on weekends. BMC Public Health 2023; 23:1596. [PMID: 37608262 PMCID: PMC10464124 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-023-16451-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/16/2022] [Accepted: 08/03/2023] [Indexed: 08/24/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Mortality statistics about daily deaths might change on weekends due to delays in reporting, uneven staffing, a different mix of personnel, or decreased efficiency. We hypothesized that reported deaths for COVID-19 might increase on weekends compared to weekdays. METHODS We collected data from the World Health Organization COVID-19 database. All deaths from March 7, 2020 to March 7, 2022 were included (two years). The primary analysis evaluated mean daily deaths on weekends compared to the preceding five workdays. Analyses were replicated in ten individual countries: United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Russia, India, Brazil, and Canada. RESULTS The mean COVID-19 daily deaths was higher on weekends compared to weekdays (8,532 vs. 8,083 p < 0.001), equal to a 6% relative increase (95% confidence interval 3% to 8%). The highest absolute increase was in the United States (1,483 vs. 1,220 deaths, p < 0.001). The second highest absolute increase was in Brazil (1,061 vs. 823 deaths, p < 0.001). The increase in deaths on weekends remained significant during the earlier and later months of the pandemic, as well as during the greater and lesser weeks of the pandemic. CONCLUSIONS The apparent increased COVID-19 deaths reported on weekends might potentially reflect patient care, confound community trends, and affect the public perception of risk.
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Redelmeier DA, Wang J, Thiruchelvam D. The Reply. Am J Med 2023; 136:e147-e148. [PMID: 37344094 DOI: 10.1016/j.amjmed.2023.03.018] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/14/2023] [Accepted: 03/14/2023] [Indexed: 06/23/2023]
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Redelmeier DA, Etchells EE, Najeeb U. Psychology of envy towards medical colleagues. J R Soc Med 2023:1410768231182880. [PMID: 37378692 PMCID: PMC10387808 DOI: 10.1177/01410768231182880] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/29/2023] Open
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Chow NLY, Tateishi N, Goldhar A, Zaheer R, Redelmeier DA, Cheung AH, Schaffer A, Sinyor M. Does knowledge have a half-life? An observational study analyzing the use of older citations in medical and scientific publications. BMJ Open 2023; 13:e072374. [PMID: 37217270 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-072374] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/24/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES In the process of scientific progress, prior evidence is both relied on and supplanted by new discoveries. We use the term 'knowledge half-life' to refer to the phenomenon in which older knowledge is discounted in favour of newer research. By quantifying the knowledge half-life, we sought to determine whether research published in more recent years is preferentially cited over older research in medical and scientific articles. DESIGN An observational study employing a directed, systematic search of current literature. DATA SOURCES BMJ, PNAS, JAMA, NEJM, The Annals of Internal Medicine, The Lancet, Science and Nature were searched. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR SELECTING STUDIES Eight high-impact medical and scientific journals were sampled examining original research articles from the first issue of every year over a 25-year span (1996-2020). The outcome of interest was the difference between the publication year of the article and references cited, termed 'citation lag'. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS Analysis of variance was used to identify significant differences in citation lag. RESULTS A total of 726 articles and 17 895 references were included with a mean citation lag of 7.5±8.4 years. Across all journals, >70% of references had been published within 10 years of the citing article. Approximately 15%-20% of referenced articles were 10-19 years old, and articles more than 20 years old were cited infrequently. Medical journals articles had references with significantly shorter citation lags compared with general science journals (p≤0.01). Articles published before 2009 had references with significantly shorter citation lags compared with those published in 2010-2020 (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS This study found evidence of a small increase in the citation of older research in medical and scientific literature over the past decade. This phenomenon deserves further characterisation and scrutiny to ensure that 'old knowledge' is not being lost.
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Hawley LL, Niederkrotenthaler T, Zaheer R, Schaffer A, Redelmeier DA, Levitt AJ, Sareen J, Pirkis J, Sinyor M. Is the narrative the message? The relationship between suicide-related narratives in media reports and subsequent suicides. Aust N Z J Psychiatry 2023; 57:758-766. [PMID: 35999688 PMCID: PMC10126449 DOI: 10.1177/00048674221117072] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES When journalists report on the details of a suicide, the way that they contextualize the meaning of the event (i.e. the 'narrative') can have significant consequences for readers. The 'Werther' and 'Papageno' narrative effects refer to increases and decreases in suicides across populations following media reports on suicidal acts or mastery of crises, respectively. The goal of this study was to investigate the impact of these different narrative constructs on subsequent suicides. METHODS This study examined the change in suicide counts over time in Toronto, Canada. It used latent difference score analysis, examining suicide-related print media reports in the Toronto media market (2011-2014). Articles (N = 6367) were coded as having a potentially harmful narrative if they described suicide in a celebrity or described a suicide death in a non-celebrity and included the suicide method. Articles were coded as having potentially protective narratives if they included at least one element of protective content (e.g. alternatives to suicide) without including any information about suicidal behaviour (i.e. suicide attempts or death). RESULTS Latent difference score longitudinal multigroup analyses identified a dose-response relationship in which the trajectory of suicides following harmful 'Werther' narrative reports increased over time, while protective 'Papageno' narrative reports declined. The latent difference score model demonstrated significant goodness of fit and parameter estimates, with each group demonstrating different trajectories of change in reported suicides over time: (χ2[6], N = 6367) = 13.16; χ2/df = 2.19; Akaike information criterion = 97.16, comparative fit index = 0.96, root mean square error of approximation = 0.03. CONCLUSION Our findings support the notion that the 'narrative' matters when reporting on suicide. Specifically, 'Werther' narratives of suicides in celebrities and suicides in non-celebrities where the methods were described were associated with more subsequent suicides while 'Papageno' narratives of survival and crisis mastery without depictions of suicidal behaviours were associated with fewer subsequent suicides. These results may inform efforts to prevent imitation suicides.
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Redelmeier DA, Wang J, Thiruchelvam D. The Reply. Am J Med 2023; 136:e101. [PMID: 37137573 PMCID: PMC10150232 DOI: 10.1016/j.amjmed.2023.01.011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/17/2023] [Accepted: 01/17/2023] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
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Manzoor F, Sundrelingam V, Roberts SB, Fralick M, Kwan JL, Tang T, Weinerman AS, Rawal S, Liu JJ, Redelmeier DA, Verma AA, Razak F, Lapointe-Shaw L. Analysis of Resident and Attending Physician End-of-Rotation Changeover Days and Association With Patient Length of Stay. JAMA Netw Open 2023; 6:e234516. [PMID: 36951860 PMCID: PMC10037142 DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.4516] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/24/2023] Open
Abstract
Importance End-of-rotation resident physician changeover is a key part of postgraduate training but could lead to discontinuity in patient care. Objective To test whether patients exposed to end-of-rotation resident changeover have longer hospital stays and whether this association is mitigated by separating resident and attending changeover days. Design, Setting, and Participants This retrospective cohort analysis included adult patients admitted to general internal medicine. The changeover day was the same day (first Monday of month) for both resident and attending physicians until June 30, 2013 (preseparation period), and then intentionally staggered by 1 or more days after July 1, 2013 (postseparation period). This was a multicenter analysis at 4 teaching hospitals in Ontario, Canada, from July 1, 2010, to June 30, 2019. Data analysis was conducted from July 2022 to January 2023. Exposures Patients were classified as changeover patients if the first Monday was a resident changeover day and as control patients if the first Monday was not a resident changeover day. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome was length of hospital stay. Secondary outcomes were transfer to critical care, in-hospital death, and rate of discharge per 100 patients on the index day. Results Of 95 282 patients. 22 773 (24%; mean [SD] age, 67.8 [18.8] years; 11 156 [49%] female patients) were exposed to resident changeover, and 72 509 (76%; mean [SD] age, 67.8 [18.7] years; 35 293 [49%] female patients) were not exposed to resident changeover. Exposure to resident changeover day was associated with a slightly longer hospital stay compared with control days (0.20 [95% CI, 0.09-0.30] days; P < .001) and decreased relative risk of patient discharge on the index day (relative risk, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.86-1.00; P = .047). These associations were similar in the preseparation and postseparation periods. Resident changeover was not associated with an increased risk of transfer to critical care or in-hospital death. Conclusions and Relevance In this study, a small positive association between exposure to resident physician changeover and length of hospital stay as well as reduced rate of discharge was found. These findings suggest that separating changeover days for resident and attending physicians may not significantly change these associations.
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