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Naghavi M, Ong KL, Aali A, Ababneh HS, Abate YH, Abbafati C, Abbasgholizadeh R, Abbasian M, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abbastabar H, Abd ElHafeez S, Abdelmasseh M, Abd-Elsalam S, Abdelwahab A, Abdollahi M, Abdollahifar MA, Abdoun M, Abdulah DM, Abdullahi A, Abebe M, Abebe SS, Abedi A, Abegaz KH, Abhilash ES, Abidi H, Abiodun O, Aboagye RG, Abolhassani H, Abolmaali M, Abouzid M, Aboye GB, Abreu LG, Abrha WA, Abtahi D, Abu Rumeileh S, Abualruz H, Abubakar B, Abu-Gharbieh E, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Aburuz S, Abu-Zaid A, Accrombessi MMK, Adal TG, Adamu AA, Addo IY, Addolorato G, Adebiyi AO, Adekanmbi V, Adepoju AV, Adetunji CO, Adetunji JB, Adeyeoluwa TE, Adeyinka DA, Adeyomoye OI, Admass BAA, Adnani QES, Adra S, Afolabi AA, Afzal MS, Afzal S, Agampodi SB, Agasthi P, Aggarwal M, Aghamiri S, Agide FD, Agodi A, Agrawal A, Agyemang-Duah W, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad A, Ahmad D, Ahmad F, Ahmad MM, Ahmad S, Ahmad S, Ahmad T, Ahmadi K, Ahmadzade AM, Ahmed A, Ahmed A, Ahmed H, Ahmed LA, Ahmed MS, Ahmed MS, Ahmed MB, Ahmed SA, Ajami M, Aji B, Akara EM, Akbarialiabad H, Akinosoglou K, Akinyemiju T, Akkaif MA, Akyirem S, Al Hamad H, Al Hasan SM, Alahdab F, Alalalmeh SO, Alalwan TA, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam M, Alam N, Al-amer RM, Alanezi FM, Alanzi TM, Al-Azzam S, Albakri A, Albashtawy M, AlBataineh MT, Alcalde-Rabanal JE, Aldawsari KA, Aldhaleei WA, Aldridge RW, Alema HB, Alemayohu MA, Alemi S, Alemu YM, Al-Gheethi AAS, Alhabib KF, Alhalaiqa FAN, Al-Hanawi MK, Ali A, Ali A, Ali L, Ali MU, Ali R, Ali S, Ali SSS, Alicandro G, Alif SM, Alikhani R, Alimohamadi Y, Aliyi AA, Aljasir MAM, Aljunid SM, Alla F, Allebeck P, Al-Marwani S, Al-Maweri SAA, Almazan JU, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Almidani L, Almidani O, Alomari MA, Al-Omari B, Alonso J, Alqahtani JS, Alqalyoobi S, Alqutaibi AY, Al-Sabah SK, Altaany Z, Altaf A, Al-Tawfiq JA, Altirkawi KA, Aluh DO, Alvis-Guzman N, Alwafi H, Al-Worafi YM, Aly H, Aly S, Alzoubi KH, Amani R, Amare AT, Amegbor PM, Ameyaw EK, Amin TT, Amindarolzarbi A, Amiri S, Amirzade-Iranaq MH, Amu H, Amugsi DA, Amusa GA, Ancuceanu R, Anderlini D, Anderson DB, Andrade PP, Andrei CL, Andrei T, Angus C, Anil A, Anil S, Anoushiravani A, Ansari H, Ansariadi A, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Antony CM, Antriyandarti E, Anvari D, Anvari S, Anwar S, Anwar SL, Anwer R, Anyasodor AE, Aqeel M, Arab JP, Arabloo J, Arafat M, Aravkin AY, Areda D, Aremu A, Aremu O, Ariffin H, Arkew M, Armocida B, Arndt MB, Ärnlöv J, Arooj M, Artamonov AA, Arulappan J, Aruleba RT, Arumugam A, Asaad M, Asadi-Lari M, Asgedom AA, Asghariahmadabad M, Asghari-Jafarabadi M, Ashraf M, Aslani A, Astell-Burt T, Athar M, Athari SS, Atinafu BTT, Atlaw HW, Atorkey P, Atout MMW, Atreya A, Aujayeb A, Ausloos M, Avan A, Awedew AF, Aweke AM, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayatollahi H, Ayuso-Mateos JL, Ayyoubzadeh SM, Azadnajafabad S, Azevedo RMS, Azzam AY, B DB, Babu AS, Badar M, Badiye AD, Baghdadi S, Bagheri N, Bagherieh S, Bah S, Bahadorikhalili S, Bahmanziari N, Bai R, Baig AA, Baker JL, Bako AT, Bakshi RK, Balakrishnan S, Balasubramanian M, Baltatu OC, Bam K, Banach M, Bandyopadhyay S, Banik PC, Bansal H, Bansal K, Barbic F, Barchitta M, Bardhan M, Bardideh E, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Barone-Adesi F, Barqawi HJ, Barrero LH, Barrow A, Barteit S, Barua L, Basharat Z, Bashiri A, Basiru A, Baskaran P, Basnyat B, Bassat Q, Basso JD, Basting AVL, Basu S, Batra K, Baune BT, Bayati M, Bayileyegn NS, Beaney T, Bedi N, Beghi M, Behboudi E, Behera P, Behnoush AH, Behzadifar M, Beiranvand M, Bejarano Ramirez DF, Béjot Y, Belay SA, Belete CM, Bell ML, Bello MB, Bello OO, Belo L, Beloukas A, Bender RG, Bensenor IM, Beran A, Berezvai Z, Berhie AY, Berice BN, Bernstein RS, Bertolacci GJ, Bettencourt PJG, Beyene KA, Bhagat DS, Bhagavathula AS, Bhala N, Bhalla A, Bhandari D, Bhangdia K, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhardwaj PV, Bhargava A, Bhaskar S, Bhat V, Bhatti GK, Bhatti JS, Bhatti MS, Bhatti R, Bhutta ZA, Bikbov B, Bishai JD, Bisignano C, Bisulli F, Biswas A, Biswas B, Bitaraf S, Bitew BD, Bitra VR, Bjørge T, Boachie MK, Boampong MS, Bobirca AV, Bodolica V, Bodunrin AO, Bogale EK, Bogale KA, Bohlouli S, Bolarinwa OA, Boloor A, Bonakdar Hashemi M, Bonny A, Bora K, Bora Basara B, Borhany H, Borzutzky A, Bouaoud S, Boustany A, Boxe C, Boyko EJ, Brady OJ, Braithwaite D, Brant LC, Brauer M, Brazinova A, Brazo-Sayavera J, Breitborde NJK, Breitner S, Brenner H, Briko AN, Briko NI, Britton G, Brown J, Brugha T, Bulamu NB, Bulto LN, Buonsenso D, Burns RA, Busse R, Bustanji Y, Butt NS, Butt ZA, Caetano dos Santos FL, Calina D, Cámera LA, Campos LA, Campos-Nonato IR, Cao C, Cao Y, Capodici A, Cárdenas R, Carr S, Carreras G, Carrero JJ, Carugno A, Carvalheiro CG, Carvalho F, Carvalho M, Castaldelli-Maia JM, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castelpietra G, Catalá-López F, Catapano AL, Cattaruzza MS, Cederroth CR, Cegolon L, Cembranel F, Cenderadewi M, Cercy KM, Cerin E, Cevik M, Chadwick J, Chahine Y, Chakraborty C, Chakraborty PA, Chan JSK, Chan RNC, Chandika RM, Chandrasekar EK, Chang CK, Chang JC, Chanie GS, Charalampous P, Chattu VK, Chaturvedi P, Chatzimavridou-Grigoriadou V, Chaurasia A, Chen AW, Chen AT, Chen CS, Chen H, Chen MX, Chen S, Cheng CY, Cheng ETW, Cherbuin N, Cheru WA, Chien JH, Chimed-Ochir O, Chimoriya R, Ching PR, Chirinos-Caceres JL, Chitheer A, Cho WCS, Chong B, Chopra H, Choudhari SG, Chowdhury R, Christopher DJ, Chukwu IS, Chung E, Chung E, Chung E, Chung SC, Chutiyami M, Cindi Z, Cioffi I, Claassens MM, Claro RM, Coberly K, Cogen RM, Columbus A, Comfort H, Conde J, Cortese S, Cortesi PA, Costa VM, Costanzo S, Cousin E, Couto RAS, Cowden RG, Cramer KM, Criqui MH, Cruz-Martins N, Cuadra-Hernández SM, Culbreth GT, Cullen P, Cunningham M, Curado MP, Dadana S, Dadras O, Dai S, Dai X, Dai Z, Dalli LL, Damiani G, Darega Gela J, Das JK, Das S, Das S, Dascalu AM, Dash NR, Dashti M, Dastiridou A, Davey G, Dávila-Cervantes CA, Davis Weaver N, Davletov K, De Leo D, de Luca K, Debele AT, Debopadhaya S, Degenhardt L, Dehghan A, Deitesfeld L, Del Bo' C, Delgado-Enciso I, Demessa BH, Demetriades AK, Deng K, Deng X, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Deravi N, Dereje N, Dervenis N, Dervišević E, Des Jarlais DC, Desai HD, Desai R, Devanbu VGC, Dewan SMR, Dhali A, Dhama K, Dhimal M, Dhingra S, Dhulipala VR, Dias da Silva D, Diaz D, Diaz MJ, Dima A, Ding DD, Ding H, Dinis-Oliveira RJ, Dirac MA, Djalalinia S, Do THP, do Prado CB, Doaei S, Dodangeh M, Dodangeh M, Dohare S, Dokova KG, Dolecek C, Dominguez RMV, Dong W, Dongarwar D, D'Oria M, Dorostkar F, Dorsey ER, dos Santos WM, Doshi R, Doshmangir L, Dowou RK, Driscoll TR, Dsouza HL, Dsouza V, Du M, Dube J, Duncan BB, Duraes AR, Duraisamy S, Durojaiye OC, Dwyer-Lindgren L, Dzianach PA, Dziedzic AM, E'mar AR, Eboreime E, Ebrahimi A, Echieh CP, Edinur HA, Edvardsson D, Edvardsson K, Efendi D, Efendi F, Effendi DE, Eikemo TA, Eini E, Ekholuenetale M, Ekundayo TC, El Sayed I, Elbarazi I, Elema TB, Elemam NM, Elgar FJ, Elgendy IY, ElGohary GMT, Elhabashy HR, Elhadi M, El-Huneidi W, Elilo LT, Elmeligy OAA, Elmonem MA, Elshaer M, Elsohaby I, Emeto TI, Engelbert Bain L, Erkhembayar R, Esezobor CI, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Espinosa-Montero J, Esubalew H, Etaee F, Fabin N, Fadaka AO, Fagbamigbe AF, Fahim A, Fahimi S, Fakhri-Demeshghieh A, Falzone L, Fareed M, Farinha CSES, Faris MEM, Faris PS, Faro A, Fasanmi AO, Fatehizadeh A, Fattahi H, Fauk NK, Fazeli P, Feigin VL, Feizkhah A, Fekadu G, Feng X, Fereshtehnejad SM, Feroze AH, Ferrante D, Ferrari AJ, Ferreira N, Fetensa G, Feyisa BR, Filip I, Fischer F, Flavel J, Flood D, Florin BT, Foigt NA, Folayan MO, Fomenkov AA, Foroutan B, Foroutan M, Forthun I, Fortuna D, Foschi M, Fowobaje KR, Francis KL, Franklin RC, Freitas A, Friedman J, Friedman SD, Fukumoto T, Fuller JE, Fux B, Gaal PA, Gadanya MA, Gaidhane AM, Gaihre S, Gakidou E, Galali Y, Galles NC, Gallus S, Ganbat M, Gandhi AP, Ganesan B, Ganiyani MA, Garcia-Gordillo MA, Gardner WM, Garg J, Garg N, Gautam RK, Gbadamosi SO, Gebi TG, Gebregergis MW, Gebrehiwot M, Gebremeskel TG, Georgescu SR, Getachew T, Gething PW, Getie M, Ghadiri K, Ghahramani S, Ghailan KY, Ghasemi MR, Ghasempour Dabaghi G, Ghasemzadeh A, Ghashghaee A, Ghassemi F, Ghazy RM, Ghimire A, Ghoba S, Gholamalizadeh M, Gholamian A, Gholamrezanezhad A, Gholizadeh N, Ghorbani M, Ghorbani Vajargah P, Ghoshal AG, Gill PS, Gill TK, Gillum RF, Ginindza TG, Girmay A, Glasbey JC, Gnedovskaya EV, Göbölös L, Godinho MA, Goel A, Golchin A, Goldust M, Golechha M, Goleij P, Gomes NGM, Gona PN, Gopalani SV, Gorini G, Goudarzi H, Goulart AC, Goulart BNG, Goyal A, Grada A, Graham SM, Grivna M, Grosso G, Guan SY, Guarducci G, Gubari MIM, Gudeta MD, Guha A, Guicciardi S, Guimarães RA, Gulati S, Gunawardane DA, Gunturu S, Guo C, Gupta AK, Gupta B, Gupta MK, Gupta M, Gupta RD, Gupta R, Gupta S, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Gupta VK, Gurmessa L, Gutiérrez RA, Habibzadeh F, Habibzadeh P, Haddadi R, Hadei M, Hadi NR, Haep N, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hailu A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Halboub ES, Hall BJ, Haller S, Halwani R, Hamadeh RR, Hameed S, Hamidi S, Hamilton EB, Han C, Han Q, Hanif A, Hanifi N, Hankey GJ, Hanna F, Hannan MA, Haque MN, Harapan H, Hargono A, Haro JM, Hasaballah AI, Hasan I, Hasan MT, Hasani H, Hasanian M, Hashi A, Hasnain MS, Hassan I, Hassanipour S, Hassankhani H, Haubold J, Havmoeller RJ, Hay SI, He J, Hebert JJ, Hegazi OE, Heidari G, Heidari M, Heidari-Foroozan M, Helfer B, Hendrie D, Herrera-Serna BY, Herteliu C, Hesami H, Hezam K, Hill CL, Hiraike Y, Holla R, Horita N, Hossain MM, Hossain S, Hosseini MS, Hosseinzadeh H, Hosseinzadeh M, Hosseinzadeh Adli A, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Hsairi M, Hsieh VCR, Hsu RL, Hu C, Huang J, Hultström M, Humayun A, Hundie TG, Hussain J, Hussain MA, Hussein NR, Hussien FM, Huynh HH, Hwang BF, Ibitoye SE, Ibrahim KS, Iftikhar PM, Ijo D, Ikiroma AI, Ikuta KS, Ikwegbue PC, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Imam MT, Immurana M, Inamdar S, Indriasih E, Iqhrammullah M, Iradukunda A, Iregbu KC, Islam MR, Islam SMS, Islami F, Ismail F, Ismail NE, Iso H, Isola G, Iwagami M, Iwu CCD, Iyamu IO, Iyer M, J LM, Jaafari J, Jacob L, Jacobsen KH, Jadidi-Niaragh F, Jafarinia M, Jafarzadeh A, Jaggi K, Jahankhani K, Jahanmehr N, Jahrami H, Jain N, Jairoun AA, Jaiswal A, Jamshidi E, Janko MM, Jatau AI, Javadov S, Javaheri T, Jayapal SK, Jayaram S, Jebai R, Jee SH, Jeganathan J, Jha AK, Jha RP, Jiang H, Jin Y, Johnson O, Jokar M, Jonas JB, Joo T, Joseph A, Joseph N, Joshua CE, Joshy G, Jozwiak JJ, Jürisson M, K V, Kaambwa B, Kabir A, Kabir Z, Kadashetti V, Kadir DH, Kalani R, Kalankesh LR, Kalankesh LR, Kaliyadan F, Kalra S, Kamal VK, Kamarajah SK, Kamath R, Kamiab Z, Kamyari N, Kanagasabai T, Kanchan T, Kandel H, Kanmanthareddy AR, Kanmiki EW, Kanmodi KK, Kannan S S, Kansal SK, Kantar RS, Kapoor N, Karajizadeh M, Karanth SD, Karasneh RA, Karaye IM, Karch A, Karim A, Karimi SE, Karimi Behnagh A, Kashoo FZ, Kasnazani QHA, Kasraei H, Kassebaum NJ, Kassel MB, Kauppila JH, Kaur N, Kawakami N, Kayode GA, Kazemi F, Kazemian S, Kazmi TH, Kebebew GM, Kebede AD, Kebede F, Keflie TS, Keiyoro PN, Keller C, Kelly JT, Kempen JH, Kerr JA, Kesse-Guyot E, Khajuria H, Khalaji A, Khalid N, Khalil AA, Khalilian A, Khamesipour F, Khan A, Khan A, Khan G, Khan I, Khan IA, Khan MN, Khan M, Khan MJ, Khan MAB, Khan ZA, Khan suheb MZ, Khanmohammadi S, Khatab K, Khatami F, Khatatbeh H, Khatatbeh MM, Khavandegar A, Khayat Kashani HR, Khidri FF, Khodadoust E, Khorgamphar M, Khormali M, Khorrami Z, Khosravi A, Khosravi MA, Kifle ZD, Kim G, Kim J, Kim K, Kim MS, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kinzel KE, Kisa A, Kisa S, Klu D, Knudsen AKS, Kocarnik JM, Kochhar S, Kocsis T, Koh DSQ, Kolahi AA, Kolves K, Kompani F, Koren G, Kosen S, Kostev K, Koul PA, Koulmane Laxminarayana SL, Krishan K, Krishna H, Krishna V, Krishnamoorthy V, Krishnamoorthy Y, Krohn KJ, Kuate Defo B, Kucuk Bicer B, Kuddus MA, Kuddus M, Kuitunen I, Kulimbet M, Kulkarni V, Kumar A, Kumar A, Kumar H, Kumar M, Kumar R, Kumari M, Kumie FT, Kundu S, Kurmi OP, Kusnali A, Kusuma D, Kwarteng A, Kyriopoulos I, Kyu HH, La Vecchia C, Lacey B, Ladan MA, Laflamme L, Lagat AK, Lager ACJ, Lahmar A, Lai DTC, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lam H, Lám J, Landrum KR, Lanfranchi F, Lang JJ, Langguth B, Lansingh VC, Laplante-Lévesque A, Larijani B, Larsson AO, Lasrado S, Lassi ZS, Latief K, Latifinaibin K, Lauriola P, Le NHH, Le TTT, Le TDT, Ledda C, Ledesma JR, Lee M, Lee PH, Lee SW, Lee SWH, Lee WC, Lee YH, LeGrand KE, Leigh J, Leong E, Lerango TL, Li MC, Li W, Li X, Li Y, Li Z, Ligade VS, Likaka ATM, Lim LL, Lim SS, Lindstrom M, Linehan C, Liu C, Liu G, Liu J, Liu R, Liu S, Liu X, Liu X, Llanaj E, Loftus MJ, López-Bueno R, Lopukhov PD, Loreche AM, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lubinda J, Lucchetti G, Lugo A, Lunevicius R, Ma ZF, Maass KL, Machairas N, Machoy M, Madadizadeh F, Madsen C, Madureira-Carvalho ÁM, Maghazachi AA, Maharaj SB, Mahjoub S, Mahmoud MA, Mahmoudi A, Mahmoudi E, Mahmoudi R, Majeed A, Makhdoom IF, Malakan Rad E, Maled V, Malekzadeh R, Malhotra AK, Malhotra K, Malik AA, Malik I, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Mansouri P, Mansournia MA, Mantovani LG, Maqsood S, Marasini BP, Marateb HR, Maravilla JC, Marconi AM, Mardi P, Marino M, Marjani A, Martinez G, Martinez-Guerra BA, Martinez-Piedra R, Martini D, Martini S, Martins-Melo FR, Martorell M, Marx W, Maryam S, Marzo RR, Masaka A, Masrie A, Mathieson S, Mathioudakis AG, Mathur MR, Mattumpuram J, Matzopoulos R, Maude RJ, Maugeri A, Maulik PK, Mayeli M, Mazaheri M, Mazidi M, McGrath JJ, McKee M, McKowen ALW, McLaughlin SA, McPhail SM, Mechili EA, Medina JRC, Mediratta RP, Meena JK, Mehra R, Mehrabani-Zeinabad K, Mehrabi Nasab E, Mekene Meto T, Meles GG, Mendez-Lopez MAM, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Mengist B, Mentis AFA, Meo SA, Meresa HA, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mersha AM, Mesfin BA, Mestrovic T, Mettananda KCD, Mettananda S, Meylakhs P, Mhlanga A, Mhlanga L, Mi T, Miazgowski T, Micha G, Michalek IM, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Minh LHN, Mini GK, Mir Mohammad Sadeghi P, Mirica A, Mirijello A, Mirrakhimov EM, Mirutse MK, Mirzaei M, Misganaw A, Mishra A, Misra S, Mitchell PB, Mithra P, Mittal C, Mobayen M, Moberg ME, Mohamadkhani A, Mohamed J, Mohamed MFH, Mohamed NS, Mohammad-Alizadeh-Charandabi S, Mohammadi S, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammadifard N, Mohammed H, Mohammed H, Mohammed M, Mohammed S, Mohammed S, Mohan V, Mojiri-Forushani H, Mokari A, Mokdad AH, Molinaro S, Molokhia M, Momtazmanesh S, Monasta L, Mondello S, Moni MA, Moodi Ghalibaf A, Moradi M, Moradi Y, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moradzadeh M, Moraga P, Morawska L, Moreira RS, Morovatdar N, Morrison SD, Morze J, Mosser JF, Motappa R, Mougin V, Mouodi S, Mousavi P, Mousavi SE, Mousavi Khaneghah A, Mpolya EA, Mrejen M, Mubarik S, Muccioli L, Mueller UO, Mughal F, Mukherjee S, Mulita F, Munjal K, Murillo-Zamora E, Musaigwa F, Musallam KM, Mustafa A, Mustafa G, Muthupandian S, Muthusamy R, Muzaffar M, Myung W, Nagarajan AJ, Nagel G, Naghavi P, Naheed A, Naik GR, Naik G, Nainu F, Nair S, Najmuldeen HHR, Nakhostin Ansari N, Nangia V, Naqvi AA, Narasimha Swamy S, Narayana AI, Nargus S, Nascimento BR, Nascimento GG, Nasehi S, Nashwan AJ, Natto ZS, Nauman J, Naveed M, Nayak BP, Nayak VC, Nazri-Panjaki A, Ndejjo R, Nduaguba SO, Negash H, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Negru SM, Nejadghaderi SA, Nejjari C, Nena E, Nepal S, Ng M, Nggada HA, Nguefack-Tsague G, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen AH, Nguyen DH, Nguyen HTH, Nguyen PT, Nguyen VT, Niazi RK, Nielsen KR, Nigatu YT, Nikolouzakis TK, Nikoobar A, Nikoomanesh F, Nikpoor AR, Ningrum DNA, Nnaji CA, Nnyanzi LA, Noman EA, Nomura S, Noreen M, Noroozi N, Norrving B, Noubiap JJ, Novotney A, Nri-Ezedi CA, Ntaios G, Ntsekhe M, Nuñez-Samudio V, Nurrika D, Nutor JJ, Oancea B, Obamiro KO, Oboh MA, Odetokun IA, Odogwu NM, O'Donnell MJ, Oduro MS, Ofakunrin AOD, Ogunkoya A, Oguntade AS, Oh IH, Okati-Aliabad H, Okeke SR, Okekunle AP, Okonji OC, Olagunju AT, Olaiya MT, Olatubi MI, Oliveira GMM, Olufadewa II, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Oluwafemi YD, Omar HA, Omar Bali A, Omer GL, Ondayo MA, Ong S, Onwujekwe OE, Onyedibe KI, Ordak M, Orisakwe OE, Orish VN, Ortega-Altamirano DV, Ortiz A, Osman WMS, Ostroff SM, Osuagwu UL, 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Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet 2024; 403:2100-2132. [PMID: 38582094 PMCID: PMC11126520 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00367-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/13/2023] [Revised: 02/15/2024] [Accepted: 02/22/2024] [Indexed: 04/08/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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