Early Evidence of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Obscured by Race-Specific Prediction Equations

Rationale: The identification of early chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is essential to appropriately counsel patients regarding smoking cessation, provide symptomatic treatment, and eventually develop disease-modifying treatments. Disease severity in COPD is defined using race-specific spirometry equations. These may disadvantage non-White individuals in diagnosis and care. Objectives: Determine the impact of race-specific equations on African American (AA) versus non-Hispanic White individuals. Methods: Cross-sectional analyses of the COPDGene (Genetic Epidemiology of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease) cohort were conducted, comparing non-Hispanic White (n = 6,766) and AA (n = 3,366) participants for COPD manifestations. Measurements and Main Results: Spirometric classifications using race-specific, multiethnic, and "race-reversed" prediction equations (NHANES [National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey] and Global Lung Function Initiative "Other" and "Global") were compared, as were respiratory symptoms, 6-minute-walk distance, computed tomography imaging, respiratory exacerbations, and St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire. Application of different prediction equations to the cohort resulted in different classifications by stage, with NHANES and Global Lung Function Initiative race-specific equations being minimally different, but race-reversed equations moving AA participants to more severe stages and especially between the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) stage 0 and preserved ratio impaired spirometry groups. Classification using the established NHANES race-specific equations demonstrated that for each of GOLD stages 1-4, AA participants were younger, had fewer pack-years and more current smoking, but had more exacerbations, shorter 6-minute-walk distance, greater dyspnea, and worse BODE (body mass index, airway obstruction, dyspnea, and exercise capacity) scores and St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire scores. Differences were greatest in GOLD stages 1 and 2. Race-reversed equations reclassified 774 AA participants (43%) from GOLD stage 0 to preserved ratio impaired spirometry. Conclusions: Race-specific equations underestimated disease severity among AA participants. These effects were particularly evident in early disease and may result in late detection of COPD.

Genome-wide association study of preserved ratio impaired spirometry (PRISm)

BACKGROUND

Preserved ratio impaired spirometry (PRISm) is defined as a forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) <80% predicted and FEV1/forced vital capacity ≥0.70. PRISm is associated with respiratory symptoms and comorbidities. Our objective was to discover novel genetic signals for PRISm and see if they provide insight into the pathogenesis of PRISm and associated comorbidities.

METHODS

We undertook a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of PRISm in UK Biobank participants (Stage 1), and selected single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) reaching genome-wide significance for replication in 13 cohorts (Stage 2). A combined meta-analysis of Stage 1 and Stage 2 was done to determine top SNPs. We used cross-trait linkage disequilibrium score regression to estimate genome-wide genetic correlation between PRISm and pulmonary and extrapulmonary traits. Phenome-wide association studies of top SNPs were performed.

RESULTS

22 signals reached significance in the joint meta-analysis, including four signals novel for lung function. A strong genome-wide genetic correlation (rg) between PRISm and spirometric COPD (rg=0.62, p<0.001) was observed, and genetic correlation with type 2 diabetes (rg=0.12, p=0.007). Phenome-wide association studies showed that 18 of 22 signals were associated with diabetic traits and seven with blood pressure traits.

CONCLUSION

This is the first GWAS to successfully identify SNPs associated with PRISm. Four of the signals, rs7652391 (nearest gene MECOM), rs9431040 (HLX), rs62018863 (TMEM114) and rs185937162 (HLA-B), have not been described in association with lung function before, demonstrating the utility of using different lung function phenotypes in GWAS. Genetic factors associated with PRISm are strongly correlated with risk of both other lung diseases and extrapulmonary comorbidity.

Quantification of Emphysema Progression at CT Using Simultaneous Volume, Noise, and Bias Lung Density Correction

Background CT attenuation is affected by lung volume, dosage, and scanner bias, leading to inaccurate emphysema progression measurements in multicenter studies. Purpose To develop and validate a method that simultaneously corrects volume, noise, and interscanner bias for lung density change estimation in emphysema progression at CT in a longitudinal multicenter study. Materials and Methods In this secondary analysis of the prospective Genetic Epidemiology of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPDGene) study, lung function data were obtained from participants who completed baseline and 5-year follow-up visits from January 2008 to August 2017. CT emphysema progression was measured with volume-adjusted lung density (VALD) and compared with the joint volume-noise-bias-adjusted lung density (VNB-ALD). Reproducibility was studied under change of dosage protocol and scanner model with repeated acquisitions. Emphysema progression was visually scored in 102 randomly selected participants. A stratified analysis of clinical characteristics was performed that considered groups based on their combined lung density change measured by VALD and VNB-ALD. Results A total of 4954 COPDGene participants (mean age, 60 years ± 9 [SD]; 2511 male, 2443 female) were analyzed (1329 with repeated reduced-dose acquisition in the follow-up visit). Mean repeatability coefficients were 30 g/L ± 0.46 for VALD and 14 g/L ± 0.34 for VNB-ALD. VALD measurements showed no evidence of differences between nonprogressors and progressors (mean, -5.5 g/L ± 9.5 vs -8.6 g/L ± 9.6; P = .11), while VNB-ALD agreed with visual readings and showed a difference (mean, -0.67 g/L ± 4.8 vs -4.2 g/L ± 5.5; P < .001). Analysis of progression showed that VNB-ALD progressors had a greater decline in forced expiratory volume in 1 second (-42 mL per year vs -32 mL per year; Tukey-adjusted P = .002). Conclusion Simultaneously correcting volume, noise, and interscanner bias for lung density change estimation in emphysema progression at CT improved repeatability analyses and agreed with visual readings. It distinguished between progressors and nonprogressors and was associated with a greater decline in lung function metrics. Clinical trial registration no. NCT00608764 © RSNA, 2024 Supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Goo in this issue.

Whole-genome sequencing uncovers two loci for coronary artery calcification and identifies ARSE as a regulator of vascular calcification

Coronary artery calcification (CAC) is a measure of atherosclerosis and a well-established predictor of coronary artery disease (CAD) events. Here we describe a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of CAC in 22,400 participants from multiple ancestral groups. We confirmed associations with four known loci and identified two additional loci associated with CAC (ARSE and MMP16), with evidence of significant associations in replication analyses for both novel loci. Functional assays of ARSE and MMP16 in human vascular smooth muscle cells (VSMCs) demonstrate that ARSE is a promoter of VSMC calcification and VSMC phenotype switching from a contractile to a calcifying or osteogenic phenotype. Furthermore, we show that the association of variants near ARSE with reduced CAC is likely explained by reduced ARSE expression with the G allele of enhancer variant rs5982944. Our study highlights ARSE as an important contributor to atherosclerotic vascular calcification, and a potential drug target for vascular calcific disease.

Baseline characteristics from a 3-year longitudinal study to phenotype subjects with COPD: the FOOTPRINTS study

BACKGROUND

FOOTPRINTS® is a prospective, longitudinal, 3-year study assessing the association between biomarkers of inflammation/lung tissue destruction and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) severity and progression in ex-smokers with mild-to-severe COPD. Here, we present baseline characteristics and select biomarkers of study subjects.

METHODS

The methodology of FOOTPRINTS® has been published previously. The study population included ex-smokers with a range of COPD severities (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease [GOLD] stages 1-3), ex-smokers with COPD and alpha-1-antitrypsin deficiency (A1ATD) and a control group of ex-smokers without airflow limitation (EwAL). At study entry, data were collected for: demographics, disease characteristics, history of comorbidities and COPD exacerbations, symptoms, lung function and volume, exercise capacity, soluble biomarkers, and quantitative and qualitative computed tomography. Baseline data are presented with descriptive statistical comparisons for soluble biomarkers in the individual GOLD and A1ATD groups versus EwAL.

RESULTS

In total, 463 subjects were enrolled. The per-protocol set comprised 456 subjects, mostly male (64.5%). The mean (standard deviation) age was 60.7 (6.9) years. At baseline, increasing pulmonary symptoms, worse lung function, increased residual volume, reduced diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (DLco) and greater prevalence of centrilobular emphysema were observed with increasing disease severity amongst GOLD 1-3 subjects. Subjects with A1ATD (n = 19) had similar lung function parameters to GOLD 2-3 subjects, a high residual volume comparable to GOLD 3 subjects, and similar air trapping to GOLD 2 subjects. Compared with EwAL (n = 61), subjects with A1ATD had worse lung function, increased residual volume, reduced DLco, and a greater prevalence of confluent or advanced destructive emphysema. The soluble inflammatory biomarkers white blood cell count, fibrinogen, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and plasma surfactant protein were higher in GOLD 1-3 groups than in the EwAL group. Interleukin-6 was expressed less often in EwAL subjects compared with subjects in the GOLD and A1ATD groups. Soluble receptor for advanced glycation end product was lowest in GOLD 3 subjects, indicative of more severe emphysema.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings provide context for upcoming results from FOOTPRINTS®, which aims to establish correlations between biomarkers and disease progression in a representative COPD population.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT02719184, study start date 13/04/2016.

Returning incidentally discovered Hepatitis C RNA-seq results to COPDGene study participants

The consequences of returning infectious pathogen test results identified incidentally in research studies have not been well-studied. Concerns include identification of an important health issue for individuals, accuracy of research test results, public health impact, potential emotional distress for participants, and need for IRB permissions. Blood RNA-sequencing analysis for non-human RNA in 3984 participants from the COPDGene study identified 228 participants with evidence suggestive for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. We hypothesized that incidentally discovered HCV results could be effectively returned to COPDGene participants with attention to the identified concerns. In conjunction with a COPDGene Participant Advisory Panel, we developed and obtained IRB approval for a process of returning HCV research results and an HCV Follow-Up Study questionnaire to capture information about previous HCV diagnosis and treatment information and participant reactions to return of HCV results. During phone calls following the initial HCV notification letter, 84 of 124 participants who could be contacted (67.7%) volunteered that they had been previously diagnosed with HCV infection. Thirty-one of these 124 COPDGene participants were enrolled in the HCV Follow-Up Study. Five of the 31 HCV Follow-Up Study participants did not report a previous diagnosis of HCV. For four of these participants, subsequent clinical HCV testing confirmed HCV infection. Thus, 30/31 Follow-Up Study participants had confirmed HCV diagnoses, supporting the accuracy of the HCV research test results. However, the limited number of participants in the Follow-Up Study precludes an accurate assessment of the false-positive and false-negative rates of the research RNA sequencing evidence for HCV. Most HCV Follow-Up Study participants (29/31) were supportive of returning HCV research results, and most participants found the process for returning HCV results to be informative and not upsetting. Newly diagnosed participants were more likely to be pleased to learn about a potentially curable infection (p = 0.027) and showed a trend toward being more frightened by the potential health risks of HCV (p = 0.11). We conclude that HCV results identified incidentally during transcriptomic research studies can be successfully returned to research study participants with a carefully designed process.

Intracarotid Infusion of Redox-Active Manganese Porphyrin, MnTnBuOE-2-PyP5+, following Reperfusion Improves Long-Term, 28-Day Post-Stroke Outcomes in Rats

Endovascular mechanical thrombectomy, combined with a tissue plasminogen activator (t-PA), is efficacious as a standard care for qualifying ischemic stroke patients. However, > 50% of thrombectomy patients still have poor outcomes. Manganese porphyrins, commonly known as mimics of superoxide dismutases, are potent redox-active catalytic compounds that decrease oxidative/nitrosative stress and in turn decrease inflammatory responses, mitigating therefore the secondary injury of the ischemic brain. This study investigates the effect of intracarotid MnTnBuOE-2-PyP5+ (BMX-001) administration on long-term, 28-day post-stroke recovery in a clinically relevant setting. The 90 min of transient middle cerebral artery occlusion was performed in young, aged, male, female, and spontaneous hypertension rats. All physiological parameters, including blood pressure, blood gas, glucose, and temperature, were well controlled during ischemia. Either BMX-001 or a vehicle solution was infused through the carotid artery immediately after the removal of filament, mimicking endovascular thrombectomy, and was followed by 7 days of subcutaneous injection. Neurologic deficits and infarct volume were assessed at 28 days in a blinded manner. The effects of BMX-001 on the carotid arterial wall and blood-brain barrier permeability and its interaction with t-PA were assessed in normal rats. There were no intra-group differences in physiological variables. BMX-001-treated stroke rats regained body weight earlier, performed better in behavioral tests, and had smaller brain infarct size compared to the vehicle-treated group. No vascular wall damage and blood-brain barrier permeability changes were detected after the BMX-001 infusion. There was no drug interaction between BMX-001 and t-PA. Intracarotid BMX-001 infusion was safe, and it significantly improved stroke outcomes in rats. These findings indicate that BMX-001 is a candidate drug as an adjunct treatment for thrombectomy procedure to further improve the neurologic outcomes of thrombectomy patients. This study warrants further clinical investigation of BMX-001 as a new stroke therapy.

Heterogeneity and Progression of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: Emphysema-Predominant and Non-Emphysema-Predominant Disease

While variation in emphysema severity between patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is well-recognized, clinically applicable definitions of the emphysema-predominant disease (EPD) and non-emphysema-predominant disease (NEPD) subtypes have not been established. To study the clinical relevance of the EPD and NEPD subtypes, we tested the association of these subtypes with prospective decline in forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) and mortality among 3,427 subjects with Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) spirometric grade 2-4 COPD at baseline in the Genetic Epidemiology of COPD (COPDGene) Study, an ongoing national multicenter study that started in 2007. NEPD was defined as airflow obstruction with less than 5% computed tomography (CT) quantitative densitometric emphysema at -950 Hounsfield units, and EPD was defined as airflow obstruction with 10% or greater CT emphysema. Mixed-effects models for FEV1 demonstrated larger average annual FEV1 loss in EPD subjects than in NEPD subjects (-10.2 mL/year; P < 0.001), and subtype-specific associations with FEV1 decline were identified. Cox proportional hazards models showed higher risk of mortality among EPD patients versus NEPD patients (hazard ratio = 1.46, 95% confidence interval: 1.34, 1.60; P < 0.001). To determine whether the NEPD/EPD dichotomy is captured by previously described COPDGene subtypes, we used logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis to predict NEPD/EPD membership using these previous subtype definitions. The analysis generally showed excellent discrimination, with areas under the ROC curve greater than 0.9. The NEPD and EPD COPD subtypes capture important aspects of COPD heterogeneity and are associated with different rates of disease progression and mortality.

Use of the Spirometric "Fixed-Ratio" Underdiagnoses COPD in African-Americans in a Longitudinal Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

COPD diagnosis is tightly linked to the fixed-ratio spirometry criteria of FEV1/FVC < 0.7. African-Americans are less often diagnosed with COPD.

OBJECTIVE

Compare COPD diagnosis by fixed-ratio with findings and outcomes by race.

DESIGN

Genetic Epidemiology of COPD (COPDGene) (2007-present), cross-sectional comparing non-Hispanic white (NHW) and African-American (AA) participants for COPD diagnosis, manifestations, and outcomes.

SETTING

Multicenter, longitudinal US cohort study.

PARTICIPANTS

Current or former smokers with ≥ 10-pack-year smoking history enrolled at 21 clinical centers including over-sampling of participants with known COPD and AA. Exclusions were pre-existing non-COPD lung disease, except for a history of asthma.

MEASUREMENTS

Subject diagnosis by conventional criteria. Mortality, imaging, respiratory symptoms, function, and socioeconomic characteristics, including area deprivation index (ADI). Matched analysis (age, sex, and smoking status) of AA vs. NHW within participants without diagnosed COPD (GOLD 0; FEV1 ≥ 80% predicted and FEV1/FVC ≥ 0.7).

RESULTS

Using the fixed ratio, 70% of AA (n = 3366) were classified as non-COPD, versus 49% of NHW (n = 6766). AA smokers were younger (55 vs. 62 years), more often current smoking (80% vs. 39%), with fewer pack-years but similar 12-year mortality. Density distribution plots for FEV1 and FVC raw spirometry values showed disproportionate reductions in FVC relative to FEV1 in AA that systematically led to higher ratios. The matched analysis demonstrated GOLD 0 AA had greater symptoms, worse DLCO, spirometry, BODE scores (1.03 vs 0.54, p < 0.0001), and greater deprivation than NHW.

LIMITATIONS

Lack of an alternative diagnostic metric for comparison.

CONCLUSIONS

The fixed-ratio spirometric criteria for COPD underdiagnosed potential COPD in AA participants when compared to broader diagnostic criteria. Disproportionate reductions in FVC relative to FEV1 leading to higher FEV1/FVC were identified in these participants and associated with deprivation. Broader diagnostic criteria for COPD are needed to identify the disease across all populations.

Causes of and Clinical Features Associated with Death in Tobacco Cigarette Users by Lung Function Impairment

Rationale: Cigarette smoking contributes to the risk of death through different mechanisms. Objectives: To determine how causes of and clinical features associated with death vary in tobacco cigarette users by lung function impairment. Methods: We stratified current and former tobacco cigarette users enrolled in Genetic Epidemiology of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPDGene) into normal spirometry, PRISm (Preserved Ratio Impaired Spirometry), Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) 1-2 COPD, and GOLD 3-4 COPD. Deaths were identified via longitudinal follow-up and Social Security Death Index search. Causes of death were adjudicated after a review of death certificates, medical records, and next-of-kin interviews. We tested associations between baseline clinical variables and all-cause mortality using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. Measurements and Main Results: Over a 10.1-year median follow-up, 2,200 deaths occurred among 10,132 participants (age 59.5 ± 9.0 yr; 46.6% women). Death from cardiovascular disease was most frequent in PRISm (31% of deaths). Lung cancer deaths were most frequent in GOLD 1-2 (18% of deaths vs. 9-11% in other groups). Respiratory deaths outpaced competing causes of death in GOLD 3-4, particularly when BODE index ⩾7. St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire score ⩾25 was associated with higher mortality in all groups: Hazard ratio (HR), 1.48 (1.20-1.84) normal spirometry; HR, 1.40 (1.05-1.87) PRISm; HR, 1.80 (1.49-2.17) GOLD 1-2; HR, 1.65 (1.26-2.17) GOLD 3-4. History of respiratory exacerbations was associated with higher mortality in GOLD 1-2 and GOLD 3-4, quantitative emphysema in GOLD 1-2, and airway wall thickness in PRISm and GOLD 3-4. Conclusions: Leading causes of death vary by lung function impairment in tobacco cigarette users. Worse respiratory-related quality of life is associated with all-cause mortality regardless of lung function.

Systemic Markers of Lung Function and Forced Expiratory Volume in 1 Second Decline across Diverse Cohorts

Rationale: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a complex disease characterized by airway obstruction and accelerated lung function decline. Our understanding of systemic protein biomarkers associated with COPD remains incomplete. Objectives: To determine what proteins and pathways are associated with impaired pulmonary function in a diverse population. Methods: We studied 6,722 participants across six cohort studies with both aptamer-based proteomic and spirometry data (4,566 predominantly White participants in a discovery analysis and 2,156 African American cohort participants in a validation). In linear regression models, we examined protein associations with baseline forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) and FEV1/forced vital capacity (FVC). In linear mixed effects models, we investigated the associations of baseline protein levels with rate of FEV1 decline (ml/yr) in 2,777 participants with up to 7 years of follow-up spirometry. Results: We identified 254 proteins associated with FEV1 in our discovery analyses, with 80 proteins validated in the Jackson Heart Study. Novel validated protein associations include kallistatin serine protease inhibitor, growth differentiation factor 2, and tumor necrosis factor-like weak inducer of apoptosis (discovery β = 0.0561, Q = 4.05 × 10-10; β  = 0.0421, Q = 1.12 × 10-3; and β = 0.0358, Q = 1.67 × 10-3, respectively). In longitudinal analyses within cohorts with follow-up spirometry, we identified 15 proteins associated with FEV1 decline (Q < 0.05), including elafin leukocyte elastase inhibitor and mucin-associated TFF2 (trefoil factor 2; β = -4.3 ml/yr, Q = 0.049; β = -6.1 ml/yr, Q = 0.032, respectively). Pathways and processes highlighted by our study include aberrant extracellular matrix remodeling, enhanced innate immune response, dysregulation of angiogenesis, and coagulation. Conclusions: In this study, we identify and validate novel biomarkers and pathways associated with lung function traits in a racially diverse population. In addition, we identify novel protein markers associated with FEV1 decline. Several protein findings are supported by previously reported genetic signals, highlighting the plausibility of certain biologic pathways. These novel proteins might represent markers for risk stratification, as well as novel molecular targets for treatment of COPD.

Whole genome analysis of plasma fibrinogen reveals population-differentiated genetic regulators with putative liver roles

Genetic studies have identified numerous regions associated with plasma fibrinogen levels in Europeans, yet missing heritability and limited inclusion of non-Europeans necessitates further studies with improved power and sensitivity. Compared with array-based genotyping, whole genome sequencing (WGS) data provides better coverage of the genome and better representation of non-European variants. To better understand the genetic landscape regulating plasma fibrinogen levels, we meta-analyzed WGS data from the NHLBI's Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) program (n=32,572), with array-based genotype data from the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology (CHARGE) Consortium (n=131,340) imputed to the TOPMed or Haplotype Reference Consortium panel. We identified 18 loci that have not been identified in prior genetic studies of fibrinogen. Of these, four are driven by common variants of small effect with reported MAF at least 10% higher in African populations. Three ( SERPINA1, ZFP36L2 , and TLR10) signals contain predicted deleterious missense variants. Two loci, SOCS3 and HPN , each harbor two conditionally distinct, non-coding variants. The gene region encoding the protein chain subunits ( FGG;FGB;FGA ), contains 7 distinct signals, including one novel signal driven by rs28577061, a variant common (MAF=0.180) in African reference panels but extremely rare (MAF=0.008) in Europeans. Through phenome-wide association studies in the VA Million Veteran Program, we found associations between fibrinogen polygenic risk scores and thrombotic and inflammatory disease phenotypes, including an association with gout. Our findings demonstrate the utility of WGS to augment genetic discovery in diverse populations and offer new insights for putative mechanisms of fibrinogen regulation.

Key Points

Largest and most diverse genetic study of plasma fibrinogen identifies 54 regions (18 novel), housing 69 conditionally distinct variants (20 novel).Sufficient power achieved to identify signal driven by African population variant.Links to (1) liver enzyme, blood cell and lipid genetic signals, (2) liver regulatory elements, and (3) thrombotic and inflammatory disease.

Quantitative CT Evaluation of Emphysema Progression over 10 Years in the COPDGene Study

Background Long-term studies of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) can evaluate emphysema progression. Adjustment for differences in equipment and scanning protocols of individual CT examinations have not been studied extensively. Purpose To evaluate emphysema progression in current and former smokers in the COPDGene cohort over three imaging points obtained at 5-year intervals accounting for individual CT parameters. Materials and Methods Current and former cigarette smokers enrolled between 2008 and 2011 from the COPDGene study were prospectively followed for 10 years between 2008 and 2020. Extent of emphysema as adjusted lung density (ALD) from quantitative CT was measured at baseline and at 5- and 10-year follow-up. Linear mixed models adjusted for CT technical characteristics were constructed to evaluate emphysema progression. Mean annual changes in ALD over consecutive 5-year study periods were estimated by smoking status and baseline emphysema. Results Of 8431 participants at baseline (mean age, 60 years ± 9 [SD]; 3905 female participants), 4913 were at 5-year follow-up and 1544 participants were at 10-year follow-up. There were 4134 (49%) participants who were current smokers, and 4449 (53%) participants had more than trace emphysema at baseline. Current smokers with more than trace emphysema showed the largest decline in ALD, with mean annual decreases of 1.4 g/L (95% CI: 1.2, 1.5) in the first 5 years and 0.9 g/L (95% CI: 0.7, 1.2) in the second 5 years. Accounting for CT noise, field of view, and scanner model improved model fit for estimation of emphysema progression (P < .001 by likelihood ratio test). Conclusion Evaluation at CT of emphysema progression in the COPDGene study showed that, during the span of 10 years, participants with pre-existing emphysema who continued smoking had the largest decline in ALD. Adjusting for CT equipment and protocol factors improved these longitudinal estimates. Clinical trial registration no. NCT00608764 © RSNA, 2023 Supplemental material is available for this article. See the editorial by Parraga and Kirby in this issue.

Prevalence of abnormal spirometry in individuals with a smoking history and no known obstructive lung disease

INTRODUCTION

Recent evidence suggests a high prevalence of undiagnosed chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). These individuals are at risk of exacerbations and delayed treatment. We analyzed an at-risk population for the prevalence of abnormal spirometry to provide clarity into who should undergo early spirometry.

METHODS

We analyzed data from the COPDGene study. Participants with ≥10 pack-years of smoking were included. Individuals with self-reported or physician-diagnosed COPD, asthma, chronic bronchitis, emphysema and/or were on inhalers were excluded. Parsimonious multivariable logistic regression models identified factors associated with abnormal spirometry, defined as either airflow obstruction (AFO) or preserved ratio impaired spirometry. Variables were selected for the final model using a stepwise backward variable elimination process which minimized Akaike information criterion (AIC). Similarly, during the 5-year follow-up period, we assessed factors associated with incident diagnosis of COPD.

RESULTS

Of 5055 individuals, 1064 (21%) had undiagnosed AFO. Age, pack-years, current smoking and a history of acute bronchitis were associated with AFO while body mass index, female sex, and Black race were inversely associated. Among 2800 participants with 5-year follow-up, 532 (19%) had an incident diagnosis of COPD. Associated risk factors included mMRC ≥2, chronic productive cough, respiratory exacerbations during the follow-up period, and abnormal spirometry. Age was inversely associated.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of undiagnosed COPD is high in at-risk populations. We found multiple factors associated with undiagnosed COPD and incident diagnosis of COPD at follow up. These results can be used to identify those at risk for undiagnosed COPD to facilitate earlier diagnosis and treatment.

X chromosome associations with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and related phenotypes: an X chromosome-wide association study

BACKGROUND

The association between genetic variants on the X chromosome to risk of COPD has not been fully explored. We hypothesize that the X chromosome harbors variants important in determining risk of COPD related phenotypes and may drive sex differences in COPD manifestations.

METHODS

Using X chromosome data from three COPD-enriched cohorts of adult smokers, we performed X chromosome specific quality control, imputation, and testing for association with COPD case-control status, lung function, and quantitative emphysema. Analyses were performed among all subjects, then stratified by sex, and subsequently combined in meta-analyses.

RESULTS

Among 10,193 subjects of non-Hispanic white or European ancestry, a variant near TMSB4X, rs5979771, reached genome-wide significance for association with lung function measured by FEV₁/FVC ([Formula: see text] 0.020, SE 0.004, p 4.97 × 10^-08), with suggestive evidence of association with FEV₁ ([Formula: see text] 0.092, SE 0.018, p 3.40 × 10^-07). Sex-stratified analyses revealed X chromosome variants that were differentially trending in one sex, with significantly different effect sizes or directions.

CONCLUSIONS

This investigation identified loci influencing lung function, COPD, and emphysema in a comprehensive genetic association meta-analysis of X chromosome genetic markers from multiple COPD-related datasets. Sex differences play an important role in the pathobiology of complex lung disease, including X chromosome variants that demonstrate differential effects by sex and variants that may be relevant through escape from X chromosome inactivation. Comprehensive interrogation of the X chromosome to better understand genetic control of COPD and lung function is important to further understanding of disease pathology. Trial registration Genetic Epidemiology of COPD Study (COPDGene) is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00608764 (Active since January 28, 2008). Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints Study (ECLIPSE), GlaxoSmithKline study code SCO104960, is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00292552 (Active since February 16, 2006). Genetics of COPD in Norway Study (GenKOLS) holds GlaxoSmithKline study code RES11080, Genetics of Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease.

Principal component analysis of flow-volume curves in COPDGene to link spirometry with phenotypes of COPD

BACKGROUND

Parameters from maximal expiratory flow-volume curves (MEFVC) have been linked to CT-based parameters of COPD. However, the association between MEFVC shape and phenotypes like emphysema, small airways disease (SAD) and bronchial wall thickening (BWT) has not been investigated.

RESEARCH QUESTION

We analyzed if the shape of MEFVC can be linked to CT-determined emphysema, SAD and BWT in a large cohort of COPDGene participants.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

In the COPDGene cohort, we used principal component analysis (PCA) to extract patterns from MEFVC shape and performed multiple linear regression to assess the association of these patterns with CT parameters over the COPD spectrum, in mild and moderate-severe COPD.

RESULTS

Over the entire spectrum, in mild and moderate-severe COPD, principal components of MEFVC were important predictors for the continuous CT parameters. Their contribution to the prediction of emphysema diminished when classical pulmonary function test parameters were added. For SAD, the components remained very strong predictors. The adjusted R² was higher in moderate-severe COPD, while in mild COPD, the adjusted R² for all CT outcomes was low; 0.28 for emphysema, 0.21 for SAD and 0.19 for BWT.

INTERPRETATION

The shape of the maximal expiratory flow-volume curve as analyzed with PCA is not an appropriate screening tool for early disease phenotypes identified by CT scan. However, it contributes to assessing emphysema and SAD in moderate-severe COPD.

Computer clinical decision support that automates personalized clinical care: a challenging but needed healthcare delivery strategy

How to deliver best care in various clinical settings remains a vexing problem. All pertinent healthcare-related questions have not, cannot, and will not be addressable with costly time- and resource-consuming controlled clinical trials. At present, evidence-based guidelines can address only a small fraction of the types of care that clinicians deliver. Furthermore, underserved areas rarely can access state-of-the-art evidence-based guidelines in real-time, and often lack the wherewithal to implement advanced guidelines. Care providers in such settings frequently do not have sufficient training to undertake advanced guideline implementation. Nevertheless, in advanced modern healthcare delivery environments, use of eActions (validated clinical decision support systems) could help overcome the cognitive limitations of overburdened clinicians. Widespread use of eActions will require surmounting current healthcare technical and cultural barriers and installing clinical evidence/data curation systems. The authors expect that increased numbers of evidence-based guidelines will result from future comparative effectiveness clinical research carried out during routine healthcare delivery within learning healthcare systems.

Emphysema Progression at CT by Deep Learning Predicts Functional Impairment and Mortality: Results from the COPDGene Study

Background Visual assessment remains the standard for evaluating emphysema at CT; however, it is time consuming, is subjective, requires training, and is affected by variability that may limit sensitivity to longitudinal change. Purpose To evaluate the clinical and imaging significance of increasing emphysema severity as graded by a deep learning algorithm on sequential CT scans in cigarette smokers. Materials and Methods A secondary analysis of the prospective Genetic Epidemiology of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPDGene) study participants was performed and included baseline and 5-year follow-up CT scans from 2007 to 2017. Emphysema was classified automatically according to the Fleischner emphysema grading system at baseline and 5-year follow-up using a deep learning model. Baseline and change in clinical and imaging parameters at 5-year follow-up were compared in participants whose emphysema progressed versus those who did not. Kaplan-Meier analysis and multivariable Cox regression were used to assess the relationship between emphysema score progression and mortality. Results A total of 5056 participants (mean age, 60 years ± 9 [SD]; 2566 men) were evaluated. At 5-year follow-up, 1293 of the 5056 participants (26%) had emphysema progression according to the Fleischner grading system. This group demonstrated progressive airflow obstruction (forced expiratory volume in 1 second [percent predicted]: -3.4 vs -1.8), a greater decline in 6-minute walk distance (-177 m vs -124 m), and greater progression in quantitative emphysema extent (adjusted lung density: -1.4 g/L vs 0.5 g/L; percentage of lung voxels with CT attenuation less than -950 HU: 0.6 vs 0.2) than those with nonprogressive emphysema (P < .001 for each). Multivariable Cox regression analysis showed a higher mortality rate in the group with emphysema progression, with an estimated hazard ratio of 1.5 (95% CI: 1.2, 1.8; P < .001). Conclusion An increase in Fleischner emphysema grade on sequential CT scans using an automated deep learning algorithm was associated with increased functional impairment and increased risk of mortality. ClinicalTrials.gov registration no. NCT00608764 © RSNA, 2022 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Grenier in this issue.

Machine Learning Prediction of Progression in Forced Expiratory Volume in 1 Second in the COPDGene® Study

BACKGROUND

The heterogeneous nature of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) complicates the identification of the predictors of disease progression. We aimed to improve the prediction of disease progression in COPD by using machine learning and incorporating a rich dataset of phenotypic features.

METHODS

We included 4496 smokers with available data from their enrollment and 5-year follow-up visits in the COPD Genetic Epidemiology (COPDGene^®) study. We constructed linear regression (LR) and supervised random forest models to predict 5-year progression in forced expiratory in 1 second (FEV₁) from 46 baseline features. Using cross-validation, we randomly partitioned participants into training and testing samples. We also validated the results in the COPDGene 10-year follow-up visit.

RESULTS

Predicting the change in FEV₁ over time is more challenging than simply predicting the future absolute FEV₁ level. For random forest, R-squared was 0.15 and the area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves for the prediction of participants in the top quartile of observed progression was 0.71 (testing) and respectively, 0.10 and 0.70 (validation). Random forest provided slightly better performance than LR. The accuracy was best for Global initiative for chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) grades 1-2 participants, and it was harder to achieve accurate prediction in advanced stages of the disease. Predictive variables differed in their relative importance as well as for the predictions by GOLD.

CONCLUSION

Random forest, along with deep phenotyping, predicts FEV₁ progression with reasonable accuracy. There is significant room for improvement in future models. This prediction model facilitates the identification of smokers at increased risk for rapid disease progression. Such findings may be useful in the selection of patient populations for targeted clinical trials.

Predicting COPD Progression in Current and Former Smokers Using a Joint Model for Forced Expiratory Volume in 1 Second and Forced Expiratory Volume in 1 Second to Forced Vital Capacity Ratio

Understanding baseline characteristics that can predict the progression of lung disease such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) for current or former smokers may allow for therapeutic intervention, particularly for individuals at high risk of rapid disease progression or transition from non-COPD to COPD. Classic diagnostic criteria for COPD and disease severity such as the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease document are based on forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) and FEV1 to forced vital capacity (FVC) ratio. Modeling changes in these outcomes jointly is beneficial given that they are correlated, and they are both required for specific disease classifications. Here, linear mixed models were used to model changes in FEV1 and FEV1/FVC jointly for 5- and 10-year intervals, using important baseline predictors to better understand the factors that affect disease progression. Participants with predicted loss of FEV1 and/or FEV1/FVC of at least 5% tended to have more emphysema, higher functional residual capacity, higher airway wall thickness as measured by Pi10, lower FVC to total lung capacity ratio and a lower body mass index at baseline, all relative to overall cohort averages. The model developed can be used to predict progression for any potential COPD individual, based on demographic, symptom, computed tomography, and comorbidity variables.

Significant Spirometric Transitions and Preserved Ratio Impaired Spirometry Among Ever Smokers

BACKGROUND

Emerging data from longitudinal studies suggest that preserved ratio impaired spirometry (PRISm), defined by proportionate reductions in FEV₁ and FVC, is a heterogeneous population with frequent transitions to other lung function categories relative to individuals with normal and obstructive spirometry. Controversy regarding the clinical significance of these transitions exists (eg, whether transitions merely reflect measurement variability or noise).

RESEARCH QUESTION

Are individuals with PRISm enriched for transitions associated with substantial changes in lung function?

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

Current and former smokers enrolled in the Genetic Epidemiology of COPD (COPDGene) study with spirometry available in phases 1 through 3 (enrollment, 5-year follow-up, and 10-year follow-up) were analyzed. Postbronchodilator lung function categories were as follows: PRISm (FEV₁ < 80% predicted with FEV₁/FVC ratio ≥ 0.7), Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease grade 0 (FEV₁ ≥ 80% predicted and FEV₁/FVC ≥ 0.7), and obstruction (FEV₁/FVC < 0.7). Significant transition status was affirmative if a subject belonged to two or more spirometric categories and had > 10% change in FEV₁ % predicted and/or FVC % predicted between consecutive visits. Ever-PRISm was present if a subject had PRISm at any visit. Logistic regression examined the association between significant transitions and ever-PRISm status, adjusted for age, sex, race, FEV₁ % predicted, current smoking, pack-years, BMI, and ever-positive bronchodilator response.

RESULTS

Among subjects with complete data (N = 1,775) over 10.1 ± 0.4 years of follow-up, the prevalence of PRISm remained consistent (10.4%-11.3%) between phases 1 through 3, but nearly one-half of subjects with PRISm transitioned into or out of PRISm at each visit. Among all subjects, 19.7% had a significant transition; ever-PRISm was a significant predictor of significant transitions (unadjusted OR, 10.3; 95% CI, 7.9-13.5; adjusted OR, 14.9; 95% CI, 10.9-20.7). Results were similar with additional adjustment for radiographic emphysema and gas trapping, when lower limit of normal criteria were used to define lung function categories, and when FEV₁ alone (regardless of change in FVC % predicted) was used to define significant transitions.

INTERPRETATION

PRISm is an unstable group, with frequent significant transitions to both obstruction and normal spirometry over time.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov; No.: NCT000608764; URL: www.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov.