Disease-modifying therapies in systemic lupus erythematosus for extrarenal manifestations

Our 2022 published working definition of disease modification in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) was 'minimising disease activity with the fewest treatment-associated toxicities and slowing or preventing organ damage progression'. The objective of this review was to classify current SLE treatments according to the proposed non-renal disease modification criteria excluding toxicities. Based on a review of select clinical trial (n=32) and observational study (n=54) publications for 14 SLE medications across different therapeutic classes, and the authors' clinical experience, we evaluated disease modification potential as per the proposed framework at three time points. Specific criteria used to determine disease modification potential included a drug's capacity to reduce: (1) non-renal disease activity, (2) severe flares, (3) use of steroids/immunosuppressants and (4) organ damage accrual. Criteria 1-3 were assessed at 1 year and 2-5 years and, when positive, were considered evidence for disease modification potential; criterion 4 was used to confirm disease modification at >5 years. Each treatment received one of four mutually exclusive designations at each time point: (a) criterion met, (b) indications of criterion met despite insufficient evidence in the literature, (c) inconclusive and (d) no available supportive data. This review excludes an assessment of potential toxicities. Eight of the 14 SLE treatments met ≥1 disease modification criteria up to year 5. Hydroxychloroquine improved overall survival at >5 years, suggesting long-term disease modification, but no data on specific organ systems were reported. Belimumab was the only treatment to meet all criteria. Belimumab and hydroxychloroquine met disease modification definitions across three time points. Evidence for other SLE therapies was incomplete, particularly at >5 years. Future studies are warranted for other treatments to meet the disease modification criteria. We discuss challenges to classification and possible updates to our published criteria.

Remission and low disease activity are associated with lower healthcare costs: results from the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) inception cohort

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to determine the independent impact of definitions of remission/low disease activity (LDA) on direct/indirect costs (DCs, ICs) in a multicentre inception cohort.

METHODS

Patients from 31 centres in 10 countries were enrolled within 15 months of diagnosis and assessed annually. Five mutually exclusive disease activity states (DAS) were defined as (1) remission off-treatment: clinical (c) SLEDAI-2K=0, without prednisone/immunosuppressants; (2) remission on-treatment: cSLEDAI-2K=0, prednisone ≤5 mg/day and/or maintenance immunosuppressants; (3) LDA-Toronto Cohort (TC): cSLEDAI-2K≤2, without prednisone/immunosuppressants; (4) modified lupus LDA state (mLLDAS): SLEDAI-2K≤4, no activity in major organs/systems, no new activity, prednisone ≤7.5 mg/day and/or maintenance immunosuppressants and (5) active: all remaining assessments.At each assessment, patients were stratified into the most stringent DAS fulfilled and the proportion of time in a DAS since cohort entry was determined. Annual DCs/ICs (2021 Canadian dollars) were based on healthcare use and lost workforce/non-workforce productivity over the preceding year.The association between the proportion of time in a DAS and annual DC/IC was examined through multivariable random-effects linear regressions.

RESULTS

1692 patients were followed a mean of 9.7 years; 49.0% of assessments were active. Remission/LDA (per 25% increase in time in a remission/LDA state vs active) were associated with lower annual DC/IC: remission off-treatment (DC -$C1372; IC -$C2507), remission on-treatment (DC -$C973; IC -$C2604,) LDA-TC (DC -$C1158) and mLLDAS (DC -$C1040). There were no cost differences between remission/LDA states.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data suggest that systemic lupus erythematosus patients who achieve remission, both off and on-therapy, and reductions in disease activity incur lower costs than those experiencing persistent disease activity.

Anti-KIF20B autoantibodies are associated with cranial neuropathy in systemic lupus erythematosus

BACKGROUND

Cranial neuropathies (CN) are a rare neuropsychiatric SLE (NPSLE) manifestation. Previous studies reported that antibodies to the kinesin family member 20B (KIF20B) (anti-KIF20B) protein were associated with idiopathic ataxia and CN. We assessed anti-KIF20B as a potential biomarker for NPSLE in an international SLE inception cohort.

METHODS

Individuals fulfilling the revised 1997 American College of Rheumatology (ACR) SLE classification criteria were enrolled from 31 centres from 1999 to 2011 and followed annually in the Systemic Lupus Erythematosus International Collaborating Clinics inception cohort. Anti-KIF20B testing was performed on baseline (within 15 months of diagnosis or first annual visit) samples using an addressable laser bead immunoassay. Logistic regression (penalised maximum likelihood and adjusting for confounding variables) examined the association between anti-KIF20B and NPSLE manifestations (1999 ACR case definitions), including CN, occurring over the first 5 years of follow-up.

RESULTS

Of the 1827 enrolled cohort members, baseline serum and 5 years of follow-up data were available on 795 patients who were included in this study: 29.8% were anti-KIF20B-positive, 88.7% female, and 52.1% White. The frequency of anti-KIF20B positivity differed only for those with CN (n=10) versus without CN (n=785) (70.0% vs 29.3%; OR 5.2, 95% CI 1.4, 18.5). Compared with patients without CN, patients with CN were more likely to fulfil the ACR haematological (90.0% vs 66.1%; difference 23.9%, 95% CI 5.0%, 42.8%) and ANA (100% vs 95.7%; difference 4.3%, 95% CI 2.9%, 5.8%) criteria. In the multivariate analysis adjusting for age at baseline, female, White race and ethnicity, and ACR haematological and ANA criteria, anti-KIF20B positivity remained associated with CN (OR 5.2, 95% CI 1.4, 19.1).

CONCLUSION

Anti-KIF20B is a potential biomarker for SLE-related CN. Further studies are needed to examine how autoantibodies against KIF20B, which is variably expressed in a variety of neurological cells, contribute to disease pathogenesis.

Association Between Severe Nonadherence to Hydroxychloroquine and Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Flares, Damage, and Mortality in 660 Patients From the SLICC Inception Cohort

OBJECTIVE

The goals of this study were to assess the associations of severe nonadherence to hydroxychloroquine (HCQ), objectively assessed by HCQ serum levels, and risks of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) flares, damage, and mortality rates over five years of follow-up.

METHODS

The Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) Inception Cohort is an international multicenter initiative (33 centers throughout 11 countries). The serum of patients prescribed HCQ for at least three months at enrollment were analyzed. Severe nonadherence was defined by a serum HCQ level <106 ng/mL or <53 ng/mL for HCQ doses of 400 or 200 mg/day, respectively. Associations with the risk of a flare (defined as a Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index 2000 increase ≥4 points, initiation of prednisone or immunosuppressive drugs, or new renal involvement) were studied with logistic regression, and associations with damage (first SLICC/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index [SDI] increase ≥1 point) and mortality with separate Cox proportional hazard models.

RESULTS

Of the 1,849 cohort participants, 660 patients (88% women) were included. Median (interquartile range) serum HCQ was 388 ng/mL (244-566); 48 patients (7.3%) had severe HCQ nonadherence. No covariates were clearly associated with severe nonadherence, which was, however, independently associated with both flare (odds ratio 3.38; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.80-6.42) and an increase in the SDI within each of the first three years (hazard ratio [HR] 1.92 at three years; 95% CI 1.05-3.50). Eleven patients died within five years, including 3 with severe nonadherence (crude HR 5.41; 95% CI 1.43-20.39).

CONCLUSION

Severe nonadherence was independently associated with the risks of an SLE flare in the following year, early damage, and five-year mortality.

Genetics of longitudinal kidney function in children and adults with systemic lupus erythematosus

OBJECTIVES

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified loci associated with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Few LN risk loci have been identified to date. We tested the association of SLE and eGFR polygenic risk scores (PRS) with repeated eGFR measures from children and adults with SLE.

METHODS

Patients from two tertiary care lupus clinics that met ≥4 ACR and/or SLICC criteria for SLE were genotyped on the Illumina MEGA or Omni1-Quad arrays. PRSs were calculated for SLE and eGFR, using published weighted GWA-significant alleles. eGFR was calculated using the CKD-EPI and Schwartz equations. We tested the effect of eGFR- and SLE-PRSs on eGFR mean and variance, adjusting for age at diagnosis, sex, ancestry, follow-up time, and clinical event flags.

RESULTS

We included 1158 SLE patients (37% biopsy-confirmed LN) with 36 733 eGFR measures over a median of 7.6 years (IQR: 3.9-15.3). LN was associated with lower within-person mean eGFR [LN: 93.8 (s.d. 26.4) vs non-LN: 101.6 (s.d. 17.7) mL/min per 1.73 m2; P < 0.0001] and higher variance [LN median: 157.0 (IQR: 89.5, 268.9) vs non-LN median: 84.9 (IQR: 46.9, 138.2) (mL/min per 1.73 m2)2; P < 0.0001]. Increasing SLE-PRSs were associated with lower mean eGFR and greater variance, while increasing eGFR-PRS was associated with increased eGFR mean and variance.

CONCLUSION

We observed significant associations between SLE and eGFR PRSs and repeated eGFR measurements, in a large cohort of children and adults with SLE. Longitudinal eGFR may serve as a powerful alternative outcome to LN categories for discovery of LN risk loci.

Assessing the Costs of Neuropsychiatric Disease in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics Cohort Using Multistate Modeling

OBJECTIVE

To estimate direct and indirect costs associated with neuropsychiatric (NP) events in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics inception cohort.

METHODS

NP events were documented annually using American College of Rheumatology definitions for NP events and attributed to systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) or non-SLE causes. Patients were stratified into 1 of 3 NP states (no, resolved, or new/ongoing NP event). Change in NP status was characterized by interstate transition rates using multistate modeling. Annual direct costs and indirect costs were based on health care use and impaired productivity over the preceding year. Annual costs associated with NP states and NP events were calculated by averaging all observations in each state and adjusted through random-effects regressions. Five- and 10-year costs for NP states were predicted by multiplying adjusted annual costs per state by expected state duration, forecasted using multistate modeling.

RESULTS

A total of 1,697 patients (49% White race/ethnicity) were followed for a mean of 9.6 years. NP events (n = 1,971) occurred in 956 patients, 32% attributed to SLE. For SLE and non-SLE NP events, predicted annual, 5-, and 10-year direct costs and indirect costs were higher in new/ongoing versus no events. Direct costs were 1.5-fold higher and indirect costs 1.3-fold higher in new/ongoing versus no events. Indirect costs exceeded direct costs 3.0 to 5.2 fold. Among frequent SLE NP events, new/ongoing seizure disorder and cerebrovascular disease accounted for the largest increases in annual direct costs. For non-SLE NP events, new/ongoing polyneuropathy accounted for the largest increase in annual direct costs, and new/ongoing headache and mood disorder for the largest increases in indirect costs.

CONCLUSION

Patients with new/ongoing SLE or non-SLE NP events incurred higher direct and indirect costs.

Isolated Neutropenia in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

Lymphopenia is the most commonly found leukocyte abnormality in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Neutropenia prevalence varied from 20% to 40% in a systematic literature review.1

Impact of Belimumab on Organ Damage in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

Organ damage is a key determinant of poor long-term prognosis and early death in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Prevention of damage is a key treatment goal of the 2019 update of the European Alliance of Associations for Rheumatology (EULAR) recommendations for SLE management. Belimumab is a monoclonal antibody that inhibits B lymphocyte stimulator (BLyS) and is the only therapy approved for both SLE and lupus nephritis. Here, we review the clinical trial and real-world data on the effects of belimumab on organ damage in adult patients with SLE. Across 4 phase III studies, belimumab in combination with background SLE therapy demonstrated consistent reductions in key drivers of organ damage including disease activity, risk of new severe flares, and glucocorticoid exposure compared to background therapy alone. Long-term belimumab use in SLE also reduced organ damage progression measured by the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index, as reported in open-label extension studies, and propensity score-matched comparative analyses to background therapy alone. Results from a clinical trial showed that in patients with active lupus nephritis, belimumab treatment improved renal response, reduced the risk of renal-related events, and impacted features related to kidney damage progression compared to background therapy alone. The decrease of organ damage accumulation observed with belimumab treatment in SLE, including lupus nephritis, suggest a disease-modifying effect.

Evaluating the threshold score for classification of systemic lupus erythematosus using the EULAR/ACR criteria

Objective

To evaluate if a change in EULAR/ACR SLE classification criteria threshold score impacts accurate classification of SLE compared to disease-based control subjects. We evaluated a range of threshold scores to determine the score that maximizes accurate classification of early SLE.

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional study comparing SLE and control patients. A EULAR/ACR criteria score was calculated using baseline information. Sensitivity, specificity, (+LR) and (-LR) likelihood ratios with 95% confidence intervals were used to evaluate operating characteristics. Threshold scores of 6-12 were evaluated in subjects with early disease (disease duration of ≤5 years). +LR above 10 and -LR below 0.1 provide evidence to rule in or rule out SLE.

Results

2764 patients (1980 SLE cases who fulfilled either the ACR or SLICC criteria, 784 controls) were included. The EULAR/ACR SLE criteria had a sensitivity 98% (95%CI 97%, 98%), specificity 99% (95%CI 98%, 100%), +LR 95.5 (95%CI 48.0, 190) and -LR 0.03 (95%CI 0.02,0.03). The criteria operate well in early disease, women, men, and in Caucasian, Black, Chinese and Filipino ethnicities. A score of 10 maximizes accurate classification of patients with early disease +LR 174.4 (95%CI 43.8, 694.6) and -LR of 0.03 (95%CI 0.02, 0.04). An increase in threshold score from 10 to 11 results in significant worsening in -LR (threshold score 10 -LR 0.03 (95%CI 0.02 - 0.03 versus threshold score 11 -LR 0.05 (95%CI 0.04 - 0.06).

Conclusion

The EULAR/ACR SLE classification criteria threshold score of 10 performs well particularly in early disease and across sexes and ethnicities.

Health information use by patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) pre and during the COVID-19 pandemic

OBJECTIVE

We conducted an international survey of patients with SLE to assess their access, preference and trust in various health information sources pre-COVID-19 and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

Patients with SLE were recruited from 18 observational cohorts, and patients self-reporting SLE were recruited through five advocacy organisations. Respondents completed an online survey from June 2020 to December 2021 regarding the sources of health information they accessed in the 12 months preceding (pre-11 March 2020) and during (post-11 March 2020) the pandemic. Multivariable logistic regressions assessed factors associated with accessing news and social media post-11 March 2020, and self-reporting negative impacts from health information accessed through these sources.

RESULTS

Surveys were completed by 2111 respondents; 92.8% were female, 76.6% had postsecondary education, mean (SD) age was 48.8 (14.0) years. Lupus specialists and family physicians were the most preferred sources pre-11 March 2020 and post-11 March 2020, yet were accessed less frequently (specialists: 78.5% pre vs 70.2% post, difference -8.3%, 95% CI -10.2% to -6.5%; family physicians: 57.1% pre vs 50.0% post, difference -7.1%, 95% CI -9.2% to -5.0%), while news (53.2% pre vs 62.1% post, difference 8.9%, 95% CI 6.7% to 11.0%) and social media (38.2% pre vs 40.6% post, difference 2.4%, 95% CI 0.7% to 4.2%) were accessed more frequently post-11 March 2020 vs pre-11 March 2020. 17.2% of respondents reported negative impacts from information accessed through news/social media. Those outside Canada, older respondents or with postsecondary education were more likely to access news media. Those in Asia, Latin America or younger respondents were more likely to access social media. Those in Asia, older respondents, males or with postsecondary education in Canada, Asia or the USA were less likely to be negatively impacted.

CONCLUSIONS

Physicians, the most preferred and trusted sources, were accessed less frequently, while news and social media, less trusted sources, were accessed more frequently post-11 March 2020 vs pre-11 March 2020. Increasing accessibility to physicians, in person and virtually, may help reduce the consequences of accessing misinformation/disinformation.

Outcomes following antimalarial withdrawal in patients with quiescent systemic lupus erythematosus

OBJECTIVE

Antimalarial medications (AMs) are central to the management of SLE. We investigated the rate of flare in lupus patients who withdrew AM after achieving clinical remission for at least one year, compared to those who continued therapy and compared flare rates in cases who tapered AM versus abruptly withdrew.

METHODS

Cases achieved clinical remission for at least one year then ceased their AM. Index date was defined as the date of complete AM cessation. Controls achieved clinical remission for at least one year and continued AM. Controls were matched according to the duration of AM before remission and the duration of therapy from remission date to case index date. All patients had ≥ 2 years of follow up.

RESULTS

Of 1573 patients on AM, 165 achieved a one-year remission and then ceased their AM. 96 had adequate follow-up, 88 were successfully matched to one control and 85 to 2 controls for a total of 173 controls. Flare occurred in 61.4% of cases and 45.1% of controls (p = 0.002). 52.3% patients who withdrew AM later restarted it due to disease flare. 88% recaptured control or improved, while 12% did not. Patients who tapered had significantly fewer flares (45.9% vs. 72.6%; p = 0.01).

CONCLUSION

AMs aid in preventing disease flare even in patients who have achieved prolonged clinical remission. Tapering AM results in lower flare rates. Hence, except in the setting of toxicity, cessation of antimalarial therapy in patients with prolonged disease quiescence is feasible using a slow taper.

Conceptual framework for defining disease modification in systemic lupus erythematosus: a call for formal criteria

Disease modification has become a well-established concept in several therapeutic areas; however, no widely accepted definition of disease modification exists for SLE.

We reviewed established definitions of disease modification in other conditions and identified a meaningful effect on ‘disease manifestations’ (ie, signs, symptoms and patient-reported outcomes) and on ‘disease outcomes’ (eg, long-term remission or progression of damage) as the key principles of disease modification, indicating a positive effect on the natural course of the disease. Based on these findings and the treatment goals and outcome measures for SLE, including lupus nephritis, we suggest a definition of disease modification based on disease activity indices and organ damage outcomes, with the latter as a key anchor. A set of evaluation criteria is also suggested.

Establishing a definition of disease modification in SLE will clarify which treatments can be considered disease modifying, provide an opportunity to harmonise future clinical trial outcomes and enable comparison between therapies, all of which could ultimately help to improve patient outcomes. This publication seeks to catalyse further discussion and provide a framework to develop an accepted definition of disease modification in SLE.

Comparative analysis of long-term organ damage in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus using belimumab versus standard therapy: a post hoc longitudinal study

Objective

Long-term extension (LTE) studies of belimumab in SLE do not include a comparator arm, preventing comparisons between belimumab plus standard therapy and standard therapy alone for organ damage accrual. Propensity score matching can be used to match belimumab-treated patients from LTE studies with standard therapy–treated patients from observational cohort studies. This analysis was designed to compare organ damage progression between treatment groups (belimumab plus standard therapy vs standard therapy alone) in patients with SLE with ≥5 years of follow-up, reproducing our previous study with more generalisable data.

Methods

This exploratory post hoc analysis used a heterogeneous population of US and non-US patients receiving monthly intravenous belimumab from pooled BLISS LTE trials (BEL112234/NCT00712933) and standard therapy–treated patients from the Toronto Lupus Cohort. Sixteen clinical variables were selected to calculate the propensity score.

Results

The 592 LTE and 381 Toronto Lupus Cohort patients were highly dissimilar across the 16 variables; an adequately balanced sample of 181 LTE and 181 matched Toronto Lupus Cohort patients (mean bias=3.7%) was created using propensity score matching. Belimumab treatment was associated with a smaller increase in Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index (SDI) over 5 years than standard therapy alone (mean treatment difference=–0.453 (95% CI –0.646 to –0.260); p<0.001). Patients treated with belimumab were 60% less likely to progress to a higher SDI score over any given year of follow-up, compared with standard therapy alone (HR (95% CI) 0.397 (0.275 to 0.572); p<0.001).

Conclusion

Using propensity score matching, this highly heterogeneous sample was sufficiently matched to the Toronto Lupus Cohort, suggesting that patients treated with intravenous belimumab may have reduced organ damage progression versus standard therapy alone. This analysis of a large and diverse pooled SLE population was consistent with our previously published US-focused study.

Gradual Glucocorticosteroid Withdrawal Is Safe in Clinically Quiescent Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

Objectives

Patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) are usually treated with glucocorticosteroids even during periods of clinically quiescent disease. A recent study showed that abrupt glucocorticoid withdrawal was associated with an increased likelihood of flare in the next 12 months. The aim of the present study was to assess clinical flare rates and damage accrual in patients who tapered glucocorticosteroids gradually.

Methods

Patients from the Toronto Lupus Clinic with 2 consecutive years of clinically quiescent disease were retrieved from the database. Individuals who maintained a low prednisone dose (5 mg/day) comprised the maintenance group, whereas patients who gradually tapered prednisone within these two years comprised the withdrawal group. All individuals were followed for 2 years after prednisone discontinuation or the corresponding date for the maintenance group. Propensity score matching was implemented to adjust for certain baseline differences. Outcomes included clinical flares and damage accrual.

Results

Of 270 eligible patients, 204 were matched (102 in each group). Flare rate (any increase in clinical SLE Disease Activity Index 2000) was lower in the withdrawal group both at 12 (17.6% versus 29.4%; P = 0.023) and 24 months (33.3% versus 50%; P = 0.01). Moderate to severe flares (requiring systemic treatment escalation) were not different at 12 months (10.8% versus 13.7%; P = 0.467) but were less frequent at 24 months (14.7% versus 27.5%; P = 0.024). Damage accrual was less frequent in the withdrawal group (6.9% versus 17.6%; P = 0.022). No predictors for clinical flares were identified.

Conclusion

Gradual glucocorticoid withdrawal is safe in clinically quiescent SLE and is associated with fewer clinical flares and less damage accrual at 24 months.

Neuropsychiatric Events in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

OBJECTIVES

To determine predictors for change in neuropsychiatric (NP) event status in a large, prospective, international, inception cohort of SLE patients METHODS: Upon enrollment and annually thereafter, NP events attributed to SLE and non-SLE causes and physician determined resolution were documented. Factors potentially associated with onset and resolution of NP events were determined by time-to-event analysis using a multistate modelling structure.

RESULTS

NP events occurred in 955/1,827 (52.3%) patients and 592/1910 (31.0%) unique events were attributed to SLE. For SLE NP events multivariate analysis revealed positive associations with male sex, concurrent non-SLE NP events excluding headache, active SLE and corticosteroids. There was a negative association with Asian race/ethnicity, post-secondary education, and immunosuppressive or anti-malarial drugs. For non-SLE NP events, excluding headache, there was a positive association with concurrent SLE NP events and negative associations with African and Asian race/ethnicity. NP events attributed to SLE had a higher resolution rate than non-SLE NP events, with the exception of headache that had comparable resolution rates. For SLE NP events, multivariate analysis revealed resolution was more common with Asian race/ethnicity and for central/focal NP events. For non-SLE NP events resolution was more common with African race/ethnicity and less common with older age at SLE diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

In a large and long-term study of the occurrence and resolution of NP events in SLE we identified subgroups with better and worse prognosis. The course of NP events differs greatly depending on their nature and attribution.

Assessment of cardiovascular risk tools as predictors of cardiovascular disease events in systemic lupus erythematosus

BACKGROUND

SLE is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). This study aimed to determine which among QRISK2, QRISK3, Framingham Risk Score (FRS), modified Framingham Risk Score (mFRS) and SLE Cardiovascular Risk Equation (SLECRE) best predicts CVD.

METHODS

This is a single-centre analysis on 1887 patients with SLE followed prospectively according to a standard protocol. Tools' scores were evaluated against CVD development at/within 10 years for patients with CVD and without CVD. For patients with CVD, the index date for risk score calculation was chosen as close to 10 years prior to CVD event. For patients without CVD, risk scores were calculated as close to 10 years prior to the most recent clinic appointment. Proportions of low-risk (<10%), intermediate-risk (10%-20%) and high-risk (>20%) patients for developing CVD according to each tool were determined, allowing sensitivity, specificity, positive/negative predictive value and concordance (c) statistics analysis.

RESULTS

Among 1887 patients, 232 CVD events occurred. QRISK2 and FRS, and QRISK3 and mFRS, performed similarly. SLECRE classified the highest number of patients as intermediate and high risk. Sensitivities and specificities were 19% and 93% for QRISK2, 22% and 93% for FRS, 46% and 83% for mFRS, 47% and 78% for QRISK3, and 61% and 64% for SLECRE. Tools were similar in negative predictive value, ranging from 89% (QRISK2) to 92% (SLECRE). FRS and mFRS had the greatest c-statistics (0.73), while QRISK3 and SLECRE had the lowest (0. 67).

CONCLUSION

mFRS was superior to FRS and was not outperformed by the QRISK tools. SLECRE had the highest sensitivity but the lowest specificity. mFRS is an SLE-adjusted practical tool with a simple, intuitive scoring system reasonably appropriate for ambulatory settings, with more research needed to develop more accurate CVD risk prediction tools in this population.

The baseline interferon signature predicts disease severity over the subsequent 5 years in systemic lupus erythematosus

Objectives

Type I interferons (IFNs) play an important role in the pathophysiology of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). While cross-sectional data suggest an association between IFN-induced gene expression and SLE disease activity, interest in this as a biomarker of flare has been tempered by a lack of fluctuation with disease activity in the majority of patients. This led us to question whether IFN-induced gene expression might instead be a biomarker of overall disease severity, with patients with high levels spending more time in an active disease state.

Methods

Levels of five interferon-responsive genes were measured in the whole peripheral blood at baseline visit for 137 SLE patients subsequently followed for 5 years. Log transformed values were summed to yield a composite IFN5 score, and the correlation with various disease outcomes examined. Receiver operator characteristic analyses were performed for outcomes of interest. Kaplan-Meier curves were generated to compare the proportion of flare-free patients with high and low IFN5 scores over time.

Results

The baseline IFN5 score was positively correlated with the adjusted mean SLE disease activity index-2000, number of flares, adjusted mean prednisone dose, and number of new immunosuppressive medications over the subsequent 5 years. Optimal cut-offs for the IFN5 score were determined using Youden’s index and predicted more severe outcomes with 57–67% accuracy. A high baseline IFN5 level was associated with a significantly increased risk of subsequent flare.

Conclusions

Measurement of the type I IFN signature is a useful tool for predicting the subsequent disease activity course.

Response to placebo in non-renal, non-neuropsychiatric systemic lupus erythematosus: a systematic review and pooled analysis

OBJECTIVES

Most randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in SLE have failed to reach their respective end points, with the rates of response to placebo (plus standard-of-care treatment) being unexpectedly high. The aim of this systematic review was to quantify the response to placebo in non-renal, non-neuropsychiatric lupus.

METHODS

The PubMed database was searched (from 2000 to December 2019) for phase II/III RCTs assessing the efficacy and safety of biologics in non-renal, non-neuropsychiatric SLE. Data on the efficacy and safety of the placebo-treated patients were collected in a pre-established data retrieval form. Descriptive statistics were used.

RESULTS

A total of 24 RCTs (n = 11128 in total) were included. Placebo-treated patients (n = 3899) were mostly females (93.5%), Caucasians (60.2%), of mean age 39.7 years, and having a mean disease duration of 7.4 years. Their mean initial SLEDAI 2000 was 10.4, whereas 60.5% had positive anti-dsDNA antibodies, 41.9% low C3 and 35.6% low C4 at randomization. Standard-of-care treatment included glucocorticosteroids in 85.9%, antimalarials in 72.8% and immunosuppressives in 48.5%. The response to placebo was 36.2% for the primary end point (as defined in each study), 39.8% for the SLE Responder Index-4 (SRI-4), 29.2% for SRI-5, 28.4% for SRI-6 and 30.9% for BILAG-based Combined Lupus Assessment response. Regarding safety, there were serious adverse events in 16.3% of patients, serious infections in 5.5% and malignancies in 0.3%, and death occurred in 0.56% of patients.

CONCLUSION

More than one-third of the placebo-treated patients achieved their respective primary end points in RCTs with biologics in non-renal, non-neuropsychiatric SLE. The response rate was higher for certain end points, such as the SRI-4, while it decreased with more stringent end points.

Economic Evaluation of Damage Accrual in an International Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Inception Cohort Using a Multistate Model Approach

OBJECTIVE

There is a paucity of data regarding health care costs associated with damage accrual in systemic lupus erythematosus. The present study was undertaken to describe costs associated with damage states across the disease course using multistate modeling.

METHODS

Patients from 33 centers in 11 countries were enrolled in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) inception cohort within 15 months of diagnosis. Annual data on demographics, disease activity, damage (SLICC/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index [SDI]), hospitalizations, medications, dialysis, and selected procedures were collected. Ten-year cumulative costs (Canadian dollars) were estimated by multiplying annual costs associated with each SDI state by the expected state duration using a multistate model.

RESULTS

A total of 1,687 patients participated; 88.7% were female, 49.0% were white, mean ± SD age at diagnosis was 34.6 ± 13.3 years, and mean time to follow-up was 8.9 years (range 0.6-18.5 years). Mean annual costs were higher for those with higher SDI scores as follows: $22,006 (Canadian) (95% confidence interval [95% CI] $16,662, $27,350) for SDI scores ≥5 versus $1,833 (95% CI $1,134, $2,532) for SDI scores of 0. Similarly, 10-year cumulative costs were higher for those with higher SDI scores at the beginning of the 10-year interval as follows: $189,073 (Canadian) (95% CI $142,318, $235,827) for SDI scores ≥5 versus $21,713 (95% CI $13,639, $29,788) for SDI scores of 0.

CONCLUSION

Patients with the highest SDI scores incur 10-year cumulative costs that are ~9-fold higher than those with the lowest SDI scores. By estimating the damage trajectory and incorporating annual costs, data on damage can be used to estimate future costs, which is critical knowledge for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of novel therapies.

Prediction of hospitalizations in systemic lupus erythematosus using the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics Frailty Index (SLICC-FI)

OBJECTIVE

The Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) frailty index (FI) predicts mortality and damage accrual in SLE, but its association with hospitalizations has not been described. We estimated the association of baseline SLICC-FI values with future hospitalizations in the SLICC inception cohort.

METHODS

Baseline SLICC-FI scores were calculated. The number and duration of inpatient hospitalizations during follow-up were recorded. Negative binomial regression was used to estimate the association between baseline SLICC-FI values and the rate of hospitalizations per patient-year of follow-up. Linear regression was used to estimate the association of baseline SLICC-FI scores with the proportion of follow-up time spent in hospital. Multivariable models were adjusted for relevant baseline characteristics.

RESULTS

The 1549 SLE patients eligible for this analysis were mostly female (88.7%) with mean (SD) age 35.7 (13.3) years and median (IQR) disease duration 1.2 (0.9-1.5) years at baseline. Mean (SD) baseline SLICC-FI was 0.17 (0.08). During mean (SD) follow-up of 7.2 (3.7) years, 614 patients (39.6%) experienced 1570 hospitalizations. Higher baseline SLICC-FI values (per 0.05 increment) were associated with more frequent hospitalizations during follow-up (Incidence Rate Ratio 1.21; 95%CI 1.13-1.30), adjusting for baseline age, sex, corticosteroid use, immunosuppressive use, ethnicity/location, SLE disease activity index 2000 (SLEDAI-2K), SLICC/ACR damage index (SDI), and disease duration. Among patients with ≥1 hospitalization, higher baseline SLICC-FI values predicted a greater proportion of follow-up time spent hospitalized (Relative Rate 1.09; 95%CI 1.02-1.16).

CONCLUSION

The SLICC-FI predicts future hospitalizations among incident SLE patients, further supporting the SLICC-FI as a valid health measure in SLE.

Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease in Lupus Nephritis: Is Dialysis Inevitable?

OBJECTIVE

Advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) carries an increased risk for progression to endstage renal disease (ESRD). We aimed to determine the rate of progression and the factors that drive the decline of renal function in lupus nephritis (LN).

METHODS

Patients with advanced LN-related CKD were identified from our longterm longitudinal cohort. Advanced CKD was defined as stage 3b [estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) = 30-44 ml/min/1.73 m²] and stage 4 (eGFR = 15-29 ml/min/1.73 m²). All individuals were followed until progression to ESRD or the last visit and were divided into "progressors" and "non- progressors." Demographic, clinical, immunological, and therapeutic variables were compared at baseline. Multivariable Cox regression analysis (both time-dependent and independent) was performed to identify predictors for progression.

RESULTS

One hundred eighteen patients (74 CKD 3b and 44 CKD 4) were included. Forty-five patients progressed (29 to ESRD and 16 from CKD 3b to CKD 4) after 6 years on average. No significant decline in the renal function was observed in 73 patients ("non-progressors") after 10 years on average. Active serology (high anti-dsDNA titers and low complements C3/C4) at the time of CKD diagnosis and any increase of the daily prednisone dose after baseline were strongly associated with progression. Treatment with renin angiotensin system (RAS) blockers was associated with less risk for progression.

CONCLUSION

Dialysis is not inevitable in LN-related advanced CKD because 62% of our patients did not progress over 10 years of followup on average. Certain predictors were identified to affect progression to ESRD.