Family history and gastric cancer incidence and mortality in Asia: a pooled analysis of more than half a million participants

BACKGROUND

The family history of gastric cancer holds important implications for cancer surveillance and prevention, yet existing evidence predominantly comes from case-control studies. We aimed to investigate the association between family history of gastric cancer and gastric cancer risk overall and by various subtypes in Asians in a prospective study.

METHODS

We included 12 prospective cohorts with 550,508 participants in the Asia Cohort Consortium. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to estimate study-specific adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between family history of gastric cancer and gastric cancer incidence and mortality, then pooled using random-effects meta-analyses. Stratified analyses were performed for the anatomical subsites and histological subtypes.

RESULTS

During the mean follow-up of 15.6 years, 2258 incident gastric cancers and 5194 gastric cancer deaths occurred. The risk of incident gastric cancer was higher in individuals with a family history of gastric cancer (HR 1.44, 95% CI 1.32-1.58), similarly in males (1.44, 1.31-1.59) and females (1.45, 1.23-1.70). Family history of gastric cancer was associated with both cardia (HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.00-1.60) and non-cardia subsites (1.49, 1.35-1.65), and with intestinal- (1.48, 1.30-1.70) and diffuse-type (1.59, 1.35-1.87) gastric cancer incidence. Positive associations were also found for gastric cancer mortality (HR 1.30, 95% CI 1.19-1.41).

CONCLUSIONS

In this largest prospective study to date on family history and gastric cancer, a familial background of gastric cancer increased the risk of gastric cancer in the Asian population. Targeted education, screening, and intervention in these high-risk groups may reduce the burden of gastric cancer.

Obesity is associated with biliary tract cancer mortality and incidence: A pooled analysis of 21 cohort studies in the Asia Cohort Consortium

Body fatness is considered a probable risk factor for biliary tract cancer (BTC), whereas cholelithiasis is an established factor. Nevertheless, although obesity is an established risk factor for cholelithiasis, previous studies of the association of body mass index (BMI) and BTC did not take the effect of cholelithiasis fully into account. To better understand the effect of BMI on BTC, we conducted a pooled analysis using population-based cohort studies in Asians. In total, 905 530 subjects from 21 cohort studies participating in the Asia Cohort Consortium were included. BMI was categorized into four groups: underweight (<18.5 kg/m2 ); normal (18.5-22.9 kg/m2 ); overweight (23-24.9 kg/m2 ); and obese (25+ kg/m2 ). The association between BMI and BTC incidence and mortality was assessed using hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) by Cox regression models with shared frailty. Mediation analysis was used to decompose the association into a direct and an indirect (mediated) effect. Compared to normal BMI, high BMI was associated with BTC mortality (HR 1.19 [CI 1.02-1.38] for males, HR 1.30 [1.14-1.49] for females). Cholelithiasis had significant interaction with BMI on BTC risk. BMI was associated with BTC risk directly and through cholelithiasis in females, whereas the association was unclear in males. When cholelithiasis was present, BMI was not associated with BTC death in either males or females. BMI was associated with BTC death among females without cholelithiasis. This study suggests BMI is associated with BTC mortality in Asians. Cholelithiasis appears to contribute to the association; and moreover, obesity appears to increase BTC risk without cholelithiasis.

Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Models for Asian Ever-Smokers

INTRODUCTION

Although lung cancer prediction models are widely used to support risk-based screening, their performance outside Western populations remains uncertain. This study aims to evaluate the performance of 11 existing risk prediction models in multiple Asian populations and to refit prediction models for Asians.

METHODS

In a pooled analysis of 186,458 Asian ever-smokers from 19 prospective cohorts, we assessed calibration (expected-to-observed ratio) and discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]) for each model. In addition, we developed the "Shanghai models" to better refine risk models for Asians on the basis of two well-characterized population-based prospective cohorts and externally validated them in other Asian cohorts.

RESULTS

Among the 11 models, the Lung Cancer Death Risk Assessment Tool yielded the highest AUC (AUC [95% confidence interval (CI)] = 0.71 [0.67-0.74] for lung cancer death and 0.69 [0.67-0.72] for lung cancer incidence) and the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial Model had good calibration overall (expected-to-observed ratio [95% CI] = 1.06 [0.90-1.25]). Nevertheless, these models substantially underestimated lung cancer risk among Asians who reported less than 10 smoking pack-years or stopped smoking more than or equal to 20 years ago. The Shanghai models were found to have marginal improvement overall in discrimination (AUC [95% CI] = 0.72 [0.69-0.74] for lung cancer death and 0.70 [0.67-0.72] for lung cancer incidence) but consistently outperformed the selected Western models among low-intensity smokers and long-term quitters.

CONCLUSIONS

The Shanghai models had comparable performance overall to the best existing models, but they improved much in predicting the lung cancer risk of low-intensity smokers and long-term quitters in Asia.

Association of Marital Status With Total and Cause-Specific Mortality in Asia

IMPORTANCE

Marital status has been shown to be associated with mortality, but evidence in Asian populations is limited.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association of marital status with total and cause-specific mortality.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study included individual participant data from 16 prospective studies in the Asia Cohort Consortium conducted between 1963 and 2015. Asian participants with complete information on marital and vital status were included. Study-specific hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs were estimated using Cox proportional hazards model and then pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis. The analysis began in February 2021 and ended in August 2021.

EXPOSURES

Marital status.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

All-cause and cause-specific mortality.

RESULTS

Of 623 140 participants (326 397 women [52.4%] and 296 743 men [47.6%]; mean [SD] age, 53.7 [10.2] years; mean [SD] follow-up time, 15.5 [6.1] years), 123 264 deaths were ascertained. Compared with married individuals, those who were unmarried had pooled HRs of 1.15 (95% CI, 1.07-1.24) for total mortality, 1.12 (95% CI, 1.03-1.22) for cerebrovascular disease mortality, 1.20 (95% CI, 1.09-1.31) for coronary heart disease mortality, 1.17 (95% CI, 1.07-1.28) for circulatory system diseases mortality, 1.06 (95% CI, 1.01-1.11) for cancer mortality, 1.14 (95% CI, 1.05-1.23) for respiratory diseases mortality, and 1.19 (95% CI, 1.05-1.34) for external causes of death. Positive associations with total mortality were also observed for those who were single (HR, 1.62; 95% CI, 1.41-1.86), separated (HR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.13-1.61), divorced (HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.13-1.69), and widowed (HR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.04-1.13). In subgroup analyses, the positive association persisted across baseline health conditions, and the risk of death was more pronounced among men or people younger than 65 years.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This large pooled cohort study of individual participant data provides strong evidence that being unmarried, as well as belonging to the unmarried subcategories, was positively associated with total and cause-specific mortality. Investment of targeted social support services might need to be considered in light of the mortality differences between married and unmarried individuals.

Comparing warning signs of suicide between suicide decedents with depression and those non-diagnosed psychiatric disorders

OBJECTIVE

Early recognition of a high-risk group impending suicide is important. We aimed to compare warning signs depending on the nature of the psychiatric disorder and whether it was a documented diagnosis.

METHODS

Data of suicide decedents were collected from police records from 2013 to 2017. We evaluate psychiatric symptoms and warning signs in three aspects (language, behavior, and affect) using the Korea-Psychological Autopsy Checklist for Police Records (K-PAC-PR).

RESULTS

A total of 13,265 suicide decedents were recruited for this study. Of them, 66.9% of females and 46.7% of males diagnosed psychiatric disorders, with depressive disorder being the most common one. Warning signs were observed in 93.0% of suicide decedents. They were observed more in those who were diagnosed with psychiatric disorders, especially in those with a depressive disorder. "Talking about dying or suicide" was the most common warning sign in all groups, and "apathetic behavior" was the most related warning sign for depressive disorder. Especially for "talking about dying or suicide," the proportion of observed "within a week" was high, making it valuable as a warning sign.

CONCLUSION

Warning signs were commonly found in suicide decedents regardless of gender. They were more common among the decedents diagnosed with psychiatric disorders, especially among those with a depressive disorder.

Psychological autopsy study comparing suicide decedents with and without a history of suicide attempts in a nationwide sample of South Korea

The majority of suicide decedents die on their initial attempt. To bring attention to suicide decedents without a suicide attempt history, the current study explored their demographic, clinical, and suicide-related characteristics. The data were derived from the Korea National Investigation of Suicide Victims Study, which assessed all suicide cases from 2013 to 2017 recorded in police investigation reports. We compared suicide decedents with and without a history of nonfatal attempts using the Korea Psychological Autopsy Checklist for Police Records (K-PAC). Out of 5228 cases included in our study, 3147 (60.2%) died on their first suicide attempt. Demographically, those who were male, older than 65, employed, and married/widowed were more likely to die on their initial attempt. Clinically, those who died on their initial attempt were more likely to have never been diagnosed with psychiatric disorders, whereas those who died on a repeated attempt were more likely to have been diagnosed with mood disorders. In terms of suicide-related factors, experiencing relationship problems and complaining about physical discomfort were associated with dying on an initial attempt. Depressed affect, self-harming behaviors, and talking about suicide or death were associated with repeated attempts.

Association between body mass index and oesophageal cancer mortality: a pooled analysis of prospective cohort studies with >800 000 individuals in the Asia Cohort Consortium

BACKGROUND

The association between body mass index (BMI) and oesophageal cancer (OC) has been consistently negative among Asians, whereas different associations based on histological OC subtypes have been observed in Europeans and North Americans. We examined the association between BMI and OC mortality in the Asia Cohort Consortium.

METHODS

We performed a pooled analysis to evaluate the association between BMI and OC mortality among 842 630 Asians from 18 cohort studies. Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs.

RESULTS

A wide J-shaped association between BMI and overall OC mortality was observed. The OC mortality risk was increased for underweight (BMI <18.5 kg/m2: HR = 2.20, 95% CI 1.80-2.70) and extreme obesity (BMI ≥35 kg/m2: HR = 4.38, 95% CI 2.25-8.52) relative to the reference BMI (23-25 kg/m2). This association pattern was confirmed by several alternative analyses based on OC incidence and meta-analysis. A similar wide J-shaped association was observed in oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). Smoking and alcohol synergistically increased the OC mortality risk in underweight participants (HR = 6.96, 95% CI 4.54-10.67) relative to that in reference BMI participants not exposed to smoking and alcohol.

CONCLUSION

Extreme obesity and being underweight were associated with an OC mortality risk among Asians. OC mortality and BMI formed a wide J-shaped association mirrored by OSCC mortality. Although the effect of BMI on OSCC and oesophageal adenocarcinoma mortality can be different in Asians, further research based on a large case-control study is recommended.

Association of Fasting Glucose and Glycated Hemoglobin with Vitamin D Level According to Diabetes Mellitus Status in Korean Adults

Objectives

Previous studies have suggested that vitamin D deficiency might increase the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus(DM). However, few studies have examined whether vitamin D continues to affect glucose control after DM diagnosis. Therefore, we examined the association between vitamin D and glucose in nondiabetics and DM patients.

Methods

We analyzed data for 32,943 adults aged 19 years and older from the 2008 to 2014 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Vitamin D levels were determined using the 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration, and patients were grouped into one of three categories according to those results DM was defined as a fasting glucose level ≥ 126 mg/dL, current use of DM medications or insulin injections, or a self-reported diagnosis of DM by a doctor.

Results

In male DM patients, hemoglobin A1c(HbA1c) level increased significantly as vitamin D levels became severely deficient. Among the abnormal HbA1c subgroups of males and postmenopausal females, HbA1c levels were significantly higher in the severe vitamin D deficiency subgroup (p for trend = 0.0044 and 0.0219 for males and postmenopausal females, respectively). There were significant differences between abnormal HbA1c subgroups and normal HbA1c subgroups in both males and females. Regardless of sex or menopause status, however, there was no significant association between vitamin D and fasting glucose in fasting glucose subgroups.

Conclusion

Males and females in the abnormal HbA1c subgroups showed markedly elevated blood glucose when they also had vitamin D deficiency. Furthermore, there was a more distinct difference in the HbA1c subgroups than in the fasting glucose subgroups.

Early psychiatric referral after attempted suicide helps prevent suicide reattempts: A longitudinal national cohort study in South Korea

INTRODUCTION

Although people who attempted suicide tend to repeat suicide attempts, there is a lack of evidence on the association between psychiatric service factors and suicide reattempt among them.

METHODS

We used a nationwide, population-based medical record database of South Korea to investigate the use of psychiatric services before and after the index suicide attempt and the association between psychiatric service factors after the index suicide attempt with the risk of suicide reattempt.

RESULTS

Among 5,874 people who had attempted suicide, the all-cause mortality within 3 months after the suicide attempt was 11.6%. Among all subjects who attempted suicide, 30.6% of them had used psychiatric services within 6 months before the suicide attempt; 43.7% of them had used psychiatric services within 3 months after the suicide attempt. Among individuals who had visited clinics following attempted suicide, the cumulative incidence of suicide reattempt over a mean follow-up period of 5.1 years was 3.4%. About half of suicide reattempts occurred within 1 year after the index suicide attempt. Referral to psychiatric services within 7 days was associated with a decreased risk of suicide reattempt (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.51; 95% confidence intervals, 0.29-0.89).

CONCLUSION

An early psychiatric referral within 1 week after a suicide attempt was associated with a decreased risk of suicide reattempt.

Coffee and tea consumption and mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease and cancer: a pooled analysis of prospective studies from the Asia Cohort Consortium

BACKGROUND

Accumulating evidence suggests that consuming coffee may lower the risk of death, but evidence regarding tea consumption in Asians is limited. We examined the association between coffee and tea consumption and mortality in Asian populations.

METHODS

We used data from 12 prospective cohort studies including 248 050 men and 280 454 women from the Asia Cohort Consortium conducted in China, Japan, Korea and Singapore. We estimated the study-specific association of coffee, green tea and black tea consumption with mortality using Cox proportional-hazards regression models and the pooled study-specific hazard ratios (HRs) using a random-effects model.

RESULTS

In total, 94 744 deaths were identified during the follow-up, which ranged from an average of 6.5 to 22.7 years. Compared with coffee non-drinkers, men and women who drank at least five cups of coffee per day had a 24% [95% confidence interval (CI) 17%, 29%] and a 28% (95% CI 19%, 37%) lower risk of all-cause mortality, respectively. Similarly, we found inverse associations for coffee consumption with cardiovascular disease (CVD)-specific and cancer-specific mortality among both men and women. Green tea consumption was associated with lower risk of mortality from all causes, CVD and other causes but not from cancer. The association of drinking green tea with CVD-specific mortality was particularly strong, with HRs (95% CIs) of 0.79 (0.68, 0.91) for men and 0.78 (0.68, 0.90) for women who drank at least five cups per day of green tea compared with non-drinkers. The association between black tea consumption and mortality was weak, with no clear trends noted across the categories of consumption.

CONCLUSIONS

In Asian populations, coffee consumption is associated with a lower risk of death overall and with lower risks of death from CVD and cancer. Green tea consumption is associated with lower risks of death from all causes and CVD.

Increased risk of depression before and after unilateral or bilateral oophorectomy: A self-controlled case series study using a nationwide cohort in South Korea

BACKGROUND

There is insufficient evidence of the association between oophorectomy and depression.

METHODS

A nationwide medical records database of South Korea was used to investigate incidence rate ratios (IRRs) of major depressive disorder before and after oophorectomy (n = 36,284) using a self-controlled case series design. Outcomes before and after hysterectomy (n = 25,415) were identified to compare with those around oophorectomy.

RESULTS

In all oophorectomy and hysterectomy groups, the risk of depression was increased before and after surgery, peaking immediately before or after the operation, with no significant difference in the pattern of the results according to type of surgery. In the bilateral oophorectomy group, the IRR was increased between 2-3 months before the surgery, peaking immediately before surgery at 1.39 (95% CI: 1.30-1.49, p < .0001), and remained heightened for one-year postexposure. Subgroup analyses performed according to ovarian cancer, age group, and hormone replacement therapy produced results similar to those of the main outcome.

LIMITATIONS

Because we used claims data, the detailed clinical information related to oophorectomy is lacking. There is possibility that time-varying confounder besides age and season might have affected the results CONCLUSIONS: The risk of depression increased before and after oophorectomy. The increase in risk of depression started before oophorectomy and peaked immediately before or after the operation, but no significant differences between unilateral and bilateral surgery and cancer and noncancer or among age groups were noted.

Risks of suicide attempts after prescription of zolpidem in people with depression: a nationwide population study in South Korea

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the association between zolpidem prescription and suicide attempts in people with depression.

METHODS

A nationwide, population-based electronic medical records database from the Health Insurance Review & Assessment Service of South was used to investigate the incidence rate ratios (IRRs) of suicide attempts and probable suicide attempts in people with depression before and after zolpidem prescription using self-controlled case series design.

RESULTS

In a total of 445 people who attempted suicide and 23 141 people who attempted probable suicide attempt, the IRRs of suicidal behavior during the risk periods before and after zolpidem prescription increased compared with those at the baseline. The IRRs gradually increased and peaked immediately before the prescription of zolpidem. The IRR was 70.06 (95% CI: 25.58-191.90) on day 2 before zolpidem prescription and 63.35 (95% CI: 22.99-174.59) on day 1 after zolpidem prescription in the suicide attempt group. The IRR was 24.07 (95% CI: 20.50-28.26) on the day before zolpidem prescription and 14.96 (95% CI: 12.21-18.34) on the day after zolpidem prescription in the probable suicide attempt group. The ratios declined eventually after zolpidem was prescribed.

CONCLUSIONS

Although zolpidem prescription was associated with an increased risk of suicide attempts in people with depression, the risk increased and peaked immediately before zolpidem prescription. The risk declined gradually thereafter. This result indicates that the risk of suicide attempts increases at the time of zolpidem prescription. However, zolpidem prescription does not contribute to additional increase in the risk of suicide attempts.

Predictive Factors Associated With Methods of Suicide: The Korean National Investigations of Suicide Victims (The KNIGHTS Study)

Background: Because the suicide mortality depends on the lethality of suicide methods, the identification and prediction of suicide methods are important for suicide prevention. Methods: Examination data of suicide decedents were collected based on police reports. Suicide decedents were divided into groups according to the suicide methods (hanging, gas poisoning, pesticide poisoning, jumping, drug poisoning, and drowning) they used. Predictive factors for each suicide method in comparison to other suicide methods were identified. Results: Among 23,647 subjects, hanging was the most common method of suicide. Regarding gas poisoning, the history of previous suicide attempt was a risk factor and being age of 65 or older was a protective factor. Being age of 65 or older showed a highly strong association with suicide by pesticide poisoning. Being age of 18 or younger and the presence of schizophrenia were associated with jumping. A history of psychiatric outpatient treatment was a risk factor for drug poisoning. Regarding suicide by drowning, schizophrenia was a risk factor, while being age of 65 or older was a protective factor. Limitations: Only eight out of a total of 17 regions in South Korea were examined and included in the data of this study. Also, the methods of suicide were defined as one method that directly caused the death, which could undermine other less fatal methods used. Conclusions: There were differences in predictive factors according to the method of suicide. Predicting the method of suicide in people at high risk for suicide stands to be an important strategy for suicide prevention in clinical settings.

Risk of Suicide Attempt after Thyroidectomy: A Nationwide Population Study in South Korea

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association between thyroidectomy and suicide attempt.

METHODS

A nationwide population-based electronic medical records database of South Korea between January 1, 2009 and June 30, 2016 was used to investigate incidence rate ratios (IRRs) of suicide attempts and probable suicide attempts before and after thyroidectomy using a self-controlled case series design.

RESULTS

In 2,986 patients who attempted suicide or probable suicide, the IRRs of suicidal behaviors during risk periods one year before and after thyroidectomy were investigated. Generally, after thyroidectomy, there was no increase in IRR compared to the non-risk period. When data were analyzed according to thyroidectomy type, after partial thyroidectomy, IRR increased up to 1.43 (95% CI: 1.03-1.98, p=0.032) in the days 91-181 period. In the subgroup with major depressive disorder (MDD), the IRR increased up to 1.74 (95% CI: 1.21-2.51, p=0.003) before thyroidectomy, and increased up to 1.67 (95% CI: 1.16-2.41, p=0.006) after thyroidectomy.

CONCLUSION

Although the general risk of suicide attempt was not increased after thyroidectomy, patients with MDD showed increased risk of suicide attempt before and after thyroidectomy. These results suggest that suicidality should be evaluated when depressive symptoms are present in patients who have undergone thyroidectomy.

Quantifying the association of low-intensity and late initiation of tobacco smoking with total and cause-specific mortality in Asia

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the health harms associated with low-intensity smoking in Asians who, on average, smoke fewer cigarettes and start smoking at a later age than their Western counterparts.

METHODS

In this pooled analysis of 738 013 Asians from 16 prospective cohorts, we quantified the associations of low-intensity (<5 cigarettes/day) and late initiation (≥35 years) of smoking with mortality outcomes. HRs and 95% CIs were estimated for each cohort by Cox regression. Cohort-specific HRs were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis.

FINDINGS

During a mean follow-up of 11.3 years, 92 068 deaths were ascertained. Compared with never smokers, current smokers who consumed <5 cigarettes/day or started smoking after age 35 years had a 16%-41% increased risk of all-cause, cardiovascular disease (CVD), respiratory disease mortality and a >twofold risk of lung cancer mortality. Furthermore, current smokers who started smoking after age 35 and smoked <5 cigarettes/day had significantly elevated risks of all-cause (HRs (95% CIs)=1.14 (1.05 to 1.23)), CVD (1.27 (1.08 to 1.49)) and respiratory disease (1.54 (1.17 to 2.01)) mortality. Even smokers who smoked <5 cigarettes/day but quit smoking before the age of 45 years had a 16% elevated risk of all-cause mortality; however, the risk declined further with increasing duration of abstinence.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study showed that smokers who smoked a small number of cigarettes or started smoking later in life also experienced significantly elevated all-cause and major cause-specific mortality but benefited from cessation. There is no safe way to smoke-not smoking is always the best choice.

Predictive factors of diagnostic conversion from major depressive disorder to bipolar disorder in young adults ages 19-34: A nationwide population study in South Korea

BACKGROUND

Predicting patients who convert to bipolar disorder is important for deciding appropriate treatment for young adults with major depressive disorder (MDD). We focused on the predictive factors of bipolar conversion in a large population of young adults.

METHODS

A nationwide, population-based electronic medical records database from the Health Insurance Review & Assessment service of South was used to investigate adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of each potential predictor of the bipolar converter group compared to the non-converter group using Cox regression analysis including age of onset, medication use, clinical features, comorbid disorders, admission, self-harm, and negative life events in childhood.

RESULTS

Among 291,721 subjects who were initially diagnosed with MDD in young adults, 12,376 subjects experienced diagnostic conversion to bipolar disorder. The cumulative incidence was 6.46% during the average 3.26 years of follow-up. Among the predictive factors during diagnosis of MDD, antipsychotic use (HR 3.12, 95%CI, 2.99-3.26, p < 0.0001) and mood stabilizers (HR 2.45, 95%CI, 2.35-2.55, p < 0.0001) showed the strongest association with diagnostic conversion to bipolar disorder. In addition, female sex, younger age of onset, mood stabilizer use, recurrent depression, psychotic symptoms, and admission to a psychiatric ward during diagnosis of MDD were also associated with diagnostic conversion to bipolar disorder.

CONCLUSION

In young adults with MDD, antipsychotic and mood stabilizer use during diagnosis of MDD were the strongest predictive factors with diagnostic conversion to bipolar disorder during follow-up. If young adults with MDD need antipsychotics or mood stabilizer, patients should be carefully evaluated for possibility of bipolar disorder.

Increased Morbidity of Major Depressive Disorder After Thyroidectomy: A Nationwide Population-Based Study in South Korea

Background: The number of thyroidectomies in South Korea has been increasing rapidly due to extensive checkups for thyroid cancer. However, few studies have examined the association between thyroidectomy and major depressive disorder (MDD). We investigated the association between thyroidectomy and the risk of MDD. Methods: A population-based electronic medical records database from South Korea was used to identify 187,176 individuals who underwent partial or total thyroidectomy between 2009 and 2016. A self-controlled case series design and Cox regression analyses were used to identify risk factors for MDD. Results: Among the 187,176 individuals who underwent thyroidectomy, 16,744 (8.9%) were diagnosed with MDD during the observation period. Of those, 3837 (22.9%) underwent partial thyroidectomy and 12,907 (77.1%) underwent total thyroidectomy. An elevated MDD risk was found during the one-year period before thyroidectomy, with incidence rate ratios (IRRs) of 1.29 ([95% confidence interval [CI] 1.18-1.41], p < 0.0001) for subjects with partial thyroidectomy and 1.27 ([95% CI 1.21-1.33], p < 0.0001) for subjects with total thyroidectomy. After total thyroidectomy, the IRR increased for 31-60 days (IRR 1.81; [95% CI 1.59-2.06], p < 0.0001) and remained elevated for up to 540 days, whereas after partial thyroidectomy, the IRR increased for 31-60 days (IRR 1.68; [95% CI 1.32-2.13], p < 0.0001) but returned to baseline levels after 270 days. Total thyroidectomy was associated with a prolonged risk of MDD compared with partial thyroidectomy in patients with cancer, which was different from the results in patients without cancer. Conclusion: The incidence of MDD increased in the period immediately after thyroidectomy and remained high for one to two years. This study highlights the importance of relatively long-term regular psychiatric assessments in patients who undergo partial or total thyroidectomy.

Gastric Complications after Adjuvant Radiotherapy for Breast Cancer

Purpose

In some patients who receive adjuvant radiotherapy (RT) for the left breast, the stomach is located inside the RT field. This study investigates the incidence of gastric complications following adjuvant RT for breast cancer using data of the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service in South Korea.

Methods

We identified 37,966 women who underwent surgery and received adjuvant RT for breast cancer. The cumulative incidence rate of gastric hemorrhage and gastric cancer was calculated and compared for left and right breast cancers.

Results

Among 37,966 patients, 19,531 (51.4%) and 18,435 (48.6%) had right and left breast cancers, respectively. After a median follow-up duration of 6.3 years, the cumulative incidence of gastric cancer and gastric hemorrhage did not differ between right and left breast cancers (p = 0.414 and p = 0.166, respectively). The multivariable analysis revealed that old age was the only factor associated with the development of gastric cancer (p < 0.001) and gastric hemorrhage (p < 0.001). The incidence of gastric cancer and hemorrhage did not differ between patients who received adjuvant RT for right and left breast cancers.

Conclusion

Irradiation-related chronic complications of the stomach in patients with breast cancer are minimal. A study with a longer follow-up duration might be needed to assess the risk of gastric cancer.

Menopausal hormone therapy and mild cognitive impairment: a randomized, placebo-controlled trial

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the study was to explore the therapeutic potential of menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) in women with mild cognitive impairment (MCI).

METHODS

Thirty-seven postmenopausal women (age range: 57-82 y) with multiple-domain, amnestic subtype MCI were randomly assigned to either placebo (n = 18) or MHT (n = 19) for 24 months (percutaneous estradiol [E2] gel [0.1%, 2 mg/d] and oral micronized progesterone [MP4] [100 mg/d]). All participants received donepezil, and apolipoprotein E genotype was determined. The primary endpoint was general cognitive function: Alzheimer's disease Assessment Scale, cognitive subscale, the Korean version of Mini-Mental State Examination (K-MMSE), and the Korean version of the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA_K) were performed in-person every 6 months.

RESULTS

Twenty-one participants (placebo 13, MHT 8) completed the trial (56.8%). Progression rates to dementia were 52.9% (9/17) in the placebo group and 44.4% (8/18) in the MHT group. Within-group analysis showed that all three tests significantly worsened during the trial in the placebo, but not the MHT groups. Analysis adjusted for ε4 allele demonstrated that MHT significantly reduced deterioration of MoCA_K score, a sensitive tool for assessing global cognition in MCI (P = 0.0261). Compared with the control group, both MoCA_K (P = 0.043; mean difference, 3.85; 95% CI, -0.46 to 8.16) and K-MMSE (P = 0.0319; mean difference, 3.26; 95% CI, 0.04-6.48) scores were significantly better at 24 months in the MHT group.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term MHT using percutaneous E2 gel and oral MP4 might attenuate cognitive decline in postmenopausal women with MCI.

Association between educational level and total and cause-specific mortality: a pooled analysis of over 694 000 individuals in the Asia Cohort Consortium

OBJECTIVE

To study the association of educational level and risk of death from all causes, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer among Asian populations.

DESIGN

A pooled analysis of 15 population-based cohort studies.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

694 434 Asian individuals from 15 prospective cohorts within the Asia Cohort Consortium.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

HRs and 95% CIs for all-cause mortality, as well as for CVD-specific mortality and cancer-specific mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 694 434 participants (mean age at baseline=53.2 years) were included in the analysis. During a mean follow-up period of 12.5 years, 103 023 deaths were observed, among which 33 939 were due to cancer and 34 645 were due to CVD. Higher educational levels were significantly associated with lower risk of death from all causes compared with a low educational level (≤primary education); HRs and 95% CIs for secondary education, trade/technical education and ≥university education were 0.88 (0.85 to 0.92), 0.81 (0.73 to 0.90) and 0.71 (0.63 to 0.80), respectively (ptrend=0.002). Similarly, HRs (95% CIs) were 0.93 (0.89 to 0.97), 0.86 (0.78 to 0.94) and 0.81 (0.73 to 0.89) for cancer death, and 0.88 (0.83 to 0.93), 0.77 (0.66 to 0.91) and 0.67 (0.58 to 0.77) for CVD death with increasing levels of education (both ptrend <0.01). The pattern of the association among East Asians and South Asians was similar compared with ≤primary education; HR (95% CI) for all-cause mortality associated with ≥university education was 0.72 (0.63 to 0.81) among 539 724 East Asians (Chinese, Japanese and Korean) and 0.61 (0.54 to 0.69) among 154 710 South Asians (Indians and Bangladeshis).

CONCLUSION

Higher educational level was associated with substantially lower risk of death among Asian populations.

Predictive value of plasma neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin in acute charcoal-burning carbon monoxide poisoning

This study aimed to assess the feasibility of using the plasma neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) level at the time of presentation in the emergency department (ED) to predict acute kidney injury (AKI) and the long-term neurological outcomes of acute charcoal-burning carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning. This retrospective study included 260 patients who suffered acute charcoal-burning CO poisoning. The median plasma NGAL concentration at the time of presentation in the ED after acute charcoal-burning CO poisoning was 78 (54–115) ng/ml. The NGAL level was an independent predictor of AKI development and could be used to stratify the severity of AKI. However, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the predictive model for AKI that included both the plasma NGAL level and clinical parameters was comparable to that of the predictive model including only the clinical parameters. The plasma NGAL level at the time of presentation in the ED was an independent factor predicting long-term neurological outcomes in patients who did not develop AKI. In these patients, the plasma NGAL level significantly improved the predictive accuracy of the model when used in combination with clinical parameters. In contrast, the plasma NGAL level was not associated with long-term neurological outcomes in patients who developed AKI. Measurement of the plasma NGAL level at the time ED presentation might improve the prediction of long-term neurological outcomes in patients who do not develop AKI after acute charcoal-burning CO poisoning. However, it might not offer additional benefit for AKI prediction compared to previously used markers.

Association of Diabetes With All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality in Asia: A Pooled Analysis of More Than 1 Million Participants

IMPORTANCE

Asia is home to the largest diabetic populations in the world. However, limited studies have quantified the association of diabetes with all-cause and cause-specific mortality in Asian populations.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the association of diabetes with all-cause and cause-specific mortality in Asia and to investigate potential effect modifications of the diabetes-mortality associations by participants' age, sex, education level, body mass index, and smoking status.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This pooled analysis incorporated individual participant data from 22 prospective cohort studies of the Asia Cohort Consortium conducted between 1963 and 2006. A total of 1 002 551 Asian individuals (from mainland China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, India, and Bangladesh) were followed up for more than 3 years. Cohort-specific hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for all-cause and cause-specific mortality were estimated using Cox regression models and then pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Analysis was conducted between January 10, 2018, and August 31, 2018.

EXPOSURES

Doctor-diagnosed diabetes, age, sex, education level, body mass index, and smoking status.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

All-cause and cause-specific mortality.

RESULTS

Of 1 002 551 participants (518 537 [51.7%] female; median [range] age, 54.0 [30.0-98.0] years), 148 868 deaths were ascertained during a median (range) follow-up of 12.6 (3.0-38.9) years. The overall prevalence of diabetes reported at baseline was 4.8% for men and 3.6% for women. Patients with diabetes had a 1.89-fold risk of all-cause death compared with patients without diabetes (hazard ratio [HR], 1.89; 95% CI, 1.74-2.04), with the highest relative risk of death due to diabetes itself (HR, 22.8; 95% CI, 18.5-28.1), followed by renal disease (HR, 3.08; 95% CI, 2.50-3.78), coronary heart disease (HR, 2.57; 95% CI, 2.19-3.02), and ischemic stroke (HR, 2.15; 95% CI, 1.85-2.51). The adverse diabetes-mortality associations were more evident among women (HR, 2.09; 95% CI, 1.89-2.32) than among men (HR, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.62-1.88) (P for interaction < .001) and more evident among adults aged 30 to 49 years (HR, 2.43; 95% CI, 2.08-2.84) than among adults aged 70 years and older (HR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.40-1.62) (P for interaction < .001). A similar pattern of association was found between diabetes and cause-specific mortality, with significant variations noted by sex and age.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This study found that diabetes was associated with increased risk of death from several diseases among Asian populations. Development and implementation of diabetes management programs are urgently needed to reduce the burden of diabetes in Asia.

Tobacco Smoking and Mortality in Asia: A Pooled Meta-analysis

IMPORTANCE

Understanding birth cohort-specific tobacco smoking patterns and their association with total and cause-specific mortality is important for projecting future deaths due to tobacco smoking across Asian populations.

OBJECTIVES

To assess secular trends of tobacco smoking by countries or regions and birth cohorts and evaluate the consequent mortality in Asian populations.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This pooled meta-analysis was based on individual participant data from 20 prospective cohort studies participating in the Asia Cohort Consortium. Between September 1, 2017, and March 31, 2018, a total of 1 002 258 Asian individuals 35 years or older were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis and random-effects meta-analysis. The pooled results were presented for mainland China; Japan; Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan; and India.

EXPOSURES

Tobacco use status, age at starting smoking, number of cigarettes smoked per day, and age at quitting smoking.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Country or region and birth cohort-specific mortality and the population attributable risk for deaths from all causes and from lung cancer.

RESULTS

Of 1 002 258 participants (51.1% women and 48.9% men; mean [SD] age at baseline, 54.6 [10.4] years), 144 366 deaths (9158 deaths from lung cancer) were ascertained during a mean (SD) follow-up of 11.7 (5.3) years. Smoking prevalence for men steadily increased in China and India, whereas it plateaued in Japan and Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan. Among Asian male smokers, the mean age at starting smoking decreased in successive birth cohorts, while the mean number of cigarettes smoked per day increased. These changes were associated with an increasing relative risk of death in association with current smoking in successive birth cohorts of pre-1920, 1920s, and 1930 or later, with hazard ratios for all-cause mortality of 1.26 (95% CI, 1.17-1.37) for the pre-1920 birth cohort, 1.47 (95% CI, 1.35-1.61) for the 1920s birth cohort, and 1.70 (95% CI, 1.57-1.84) for the cohort born in 1930 or later. The hazard ratios for lung cancer mortality were 3.38 (95% CI, 2.25-5.07) for the pre-1920 birth cohort, 4.74 (95% CI, 3.56-6.32) for the 1920s birth cohort, and 4.80 (95% CI, 3.71-6.19) for the cohort born in 1930 or later. Tobacco smoking accounted for 12.5% (95% CI, 8.4%-16.3%) of all-cause mortality in the pre-1920 birth cohort, 21.1% (95% CI, 17.3%-24.9%) of all-cause mortality in the 1920s birth cohort, and 29.3% (95% CI, 26.0%-32.3%) of all-cause mortality for the cohort born in 1930 or later. Tobacco smoking among men accounted for 56.6% (95% CI, 44.7%-66.3%) of lung cancer mortality in the pre-1920 birth cohort, 66.6% (95% CI, 58.3%-73.5%) of lung cancer mortality in the 1920s birth cohort, and 68.4% (95% CI, 61.3%-74.4%) of lung cancer mortality for the cohort born in 1930 or later. For women, tobacco smoking patterns and lung cancer mortality varied substantially by countries and regions.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this study, mortality associated with tobacco smoking continued to increase among Asian men in recent birth cohorts, indicating that tobacco smoking will remain a major public health problem in most Asian countries in the coming decades. Implementing comprehensive tobacco-control programs is warranted to end the tobacco epidemic.

Comorbid immune-mediated diseases in inflammatory bowel disease: a nation-wide population-based study

BACKGROUND

Although a higher risk of other immune-mediated diseases has been reported in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients, the risk factors of immune-mediated diseases development and the effect of concomitant immune-mediated diseases on outcomes remain poorly defined.

AIM

To determine the risk factors of incident immune-mediated diseases and the impact of comorbid immune-mediated diseases on outcomes in IBD.

METHODS

Using the National Health Insurance claims data for the entire Korean population, we identified 35 581 IBD patients without immune-mediated diseases and 595 IBD patients with immune-mediated diseases from 2012 to 2013, and follow-up until 2016. We selected four controls by age and sex for comparing with cases.

RESULTS

A total of 35 581 IBD patients without immune-mediated diseases and 142 324 matched controls without immune-mediated diseases were followed from 2014 to 2016 and of these 239 IBD patients and 357 controls developed immune-mediated disease. The overall immune-mediated diseases risk was higher in IBD patients (HR, hazard ratio, 2.47; 95% confidence interval, CI, 2.09-2.91). In a nested case-control study of the IBD cohort, adult patients aged ≥20 years and frequent hospitalisation ≥1 per year were independent risk factors for incident immune-mediated diseases, in contrast, 5-aminosalicylic acid (5-ASA) use had protective effect (odds ratio, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.41-0.90) for developing immune-mediated diseases. In addition, IBD patients with another immune-mediated disease had an increased risk of needing anti-TNF-α agent (HR, 2.40; 95% CI, 2.02-2.84) and developing acute flare (HR, 1.76; 95% CI, 1.37-2.26).

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of immune-mediated diseases in IBD patients was higher than that of non-IBD population. 5-ASA use may reduce this risk.