Allelic variants of the estrogen receptor genes and frailty phenotype in postmenopausal women

OBJECTIVE

The prevalence of frailty has been related to menopause. Our main objective was to investigate whether single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of the estrogen receptor (ER) ERα and ERβ genes were related to the frailty phenotype in a population of community-dwelling postmenopausal women.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was performed in which we selected five SNPs, three in the ERα gene and two in the ERβ . Linear regression was used to estimate the percentage of phenotypic variance after adjusting for confounding variables.

RESULTS

A total of 470 women (mean ± standard deviation age 63.83 ± 8.16 years) were included, of whom 137 women were frail. The SNP rs3798577 of the ERα gene was the only variant associated with frailty, but this significance faded in the multivariant analysis. Body mass index (p = 0.012), number of comorbidities (0 vs. ≥2, p = 0.002) and two reproductive variables, number of miscarriages (none vs. ≥2, p = 0.036) and of childbirths (one vs. ≥3, p = 0.008), were independently related to frailty.

CONCLUSION

The five SNPs of the ERα and ERβ genes tested were not correlated with frailty. Other SNPs of the ER warrant analysis to clarify whether variance in the gene response affects frailty status.

Informing the pandemic response: the role of the WHO's COVID-19 Weekly Epidemiological Update

On 31 December 2019, the Municipal Health Commission of Wuhan, China, reported a cluster of atypical pneumonia cases. On 5 January 2020, the WHO publicly released a Disease Outbreak News (DON) report, providing information about the pneumonia cases, implemented response interventions, and WHO's risk assessment and advice on public health and social measures. Following 9 additional DON reports and 209 daily situation reports, on 17 August 2020, WHO published the first edition of the COVID-19 Weekly Epidemiological Update (WEU). On 1 September 2023, the 158th edition of the WEU was published on WHO's website, marking its final issue. Since then, the WEU has been replaced by comprehensive global epidemiological updates on COVID-19 released every 4 weeks. During the span of its publication, the webpage that hosts the WEU and the COVID-19 Operational Updates was accessed annually over 1.4 million times on average, with visits originating from more than 100 countries. This article provides an in-depth analysis of the WEU process, from data collection to publication, focusing on the scope, technical details, main features, underlying methods, impact and limitations. We also discuss WHO's experience in disseminating epidemiological information on the COVID-19 pandemic at the global level and provide recommendations for enhancing collaboration and information sharing to support future health emergency responses.

Disseminating information on acute public health events globally: experiences from the WHO's Disease Outbreak News

WHO works, on a daily basis, with countries globally to detect, prepare for and respond to acute public health events. A vital component of a health response is the dissemination of accurate, reliable and authoritative information. The Disease Outbreak News (DON) reports are a key mechanism through which WHO communicates on acute public health events to the public. The decision to produce a DON report is taken on a case-by-case basis after evaluating key criteria, and the subsequent process of producing a DON report is highly standardised to ensure the robustness of information. DON reports have been published since 1996, and up to 2022 over 3000 reports have been published. Between 2018 and 2022, the most frequently published DON reports relate to Ebola virus disease, Middle East respiratory syndrome, yellow fever, polio and cholera. The DON web page is highly visited with a readership of over 2.6 million visits per year, on average. The DON report structure has evolved over time, from a single paragraph in 1996 to a detailed report with seven sections currently. WHO regularly reviews the DON report process and structure for improvements. In the last 25 years, DON reports have played a unique role in rapidly disseminating information on acute public health events to health actors and the public globally. They have become a key information source for the global public health response to the benefit of individuals and communities.

A pediatric HIV outbreak in Pakistan

Background

Following reports of an outbreak of HIV infection among children in Larkana District, Pakistan, an international team investigated the extent and cause of the outbreak between April and June 2019.

Aims

To investigate the incidence of HIV among children in Larkana District, Pakistan and describe the distribution of cases by time, place and person.

Methods

Self-referred persons were tested for HIV using the national testing protocol. Local epidemiology of HIV was reviewed to generate hypotheses. An infection prevention and control (IPC) team conducted site visits and reviewed IPC practices.

Results

Between 25 April and 27 June 2019, a total of 30 191 persons were tested for HIV in Larkana District, and 876 of them tested positive. Of those who tested positive, 719 (82%) were children aged <15 years. Traditional skin piercing procedures and transmission from high-risk populations to children were ruled out during the investigation. Informative interviews with parents or guardians of a convenience sample of 211 children aged <15 years showed that 99% of children had an injection or infusion for medical treatment within the past 12 months. Our investigation identified lack of HIV prevalence data for the general population including tuberculosis patients and those who attended antenatal care services.

Conclusions

Investigations indicate that unsafe healthcare practices in formal and informal healthcare settings as the most likely cause of the 2019 outbreak of HIV infection in Larkana, Pakistan. Measures should be taken to improve IPC practices at the facility level, especially in pediatric and antenatal care clinics.

Global public health intelligence: World Health Organization operational practices

Early warning and response are key to tackle emerging and acute public health risks globally. Therefore, the World Health Organization (WHO) has implemented a robust approach to public health intelligence (PHI) for the global detection, verification and risk assessment of acute public health threats. WHO's PHI operations are underpinned by the International Health Regulations (2005), which require that countries strengthen surveillance efforts, and assess, notify and verify events that may constitute a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC). PHI activities at WHO are conducted systematically at WHO's headquarters and all six regional offices continuously, throughout every day of the year. We describe four interlinked steps; detection, verification, risk assessment, and reporting and dissemination. For PHI operations, a diverse and interdisciplinary workforce is needed. Overall, PHI is a key feature of the global health architecture and will only become more prominent as the world faces increasing public health threats.

The World Health Organization's public health intelligence activities during the COVID-19 pandemic response, December 2019 to December 2021

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) presented a unique opportunity for the World Health Organization (WHO) to utilise public health intelligence (PHI) for pandemic response. WHO systematically captured mainly unstructured information (e.g. media articles, listservs, community-based reporting) for public health intelligence purposes. WHO used the Epidemic Intelligence from Open Sources (EIOS) system as one of the information sources for PHI. The processes and scope for PHI were adapted as the pandemic evolved and tailored to regional response needs. During the early months of the pandemic, media monitoring complemented official case and death reporting through the International Health Regulations mechanism and triggered alerts. As the pandemic evolved, PHI activities prioritised identifying epidemiological trends to supplement the information available through indicator-based surveillance reported to WHO. The PHI scope evolved over time to include vaccine introduction, emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants, unusual clinical manifestations and upsurges in cases, hospitalisation and death incidences at subnational levels. Triaging the unprecedented high volume of information challenged surveillance activities but was managed by collaborative information sharing. The evolution of PHI activities using multiple sources in WHO's response to the COVID-19 pandemic illustrates the future directions in which PHI methodologies could be developed and used.

Characterization of health concerns in people with neurofibromatosis type 1

BACKGROUND

Neurofibromatosis 1 (NF1) is a common cancer predisposition syndrome. Affected individuals require lifelong surveillance and often suffer progressive disfigurement due to cutaneous neurofibromas. The aim of this research was to characterize health concerns and quality of life (QOL) in a population cohort.

METHODS

An online survey was completed by 68 adults and 32 parents of children with NF1, and 60 controls. The survey included the Skindex-29 QOL scale, 5D-itch scale, and additional health questions.

RESULTS

Frequency of itch was high in children (50%) and adults (69%), with most expressing interest in treatment for itch. The presence of itch and increased visibility of NF1 were predictors of poorer QoL. Many adults (53%) and parents (44%) desired access to treatment to improve cosmetic appearance. Muscle weakness/tiredness was also prevalent amongst (60-70%) adults and children with NF1. Two-thirds of adults with NF1 reported limited awareness of NF1 services and poor knowledge of surveillance, particularly breast screening in young women.

CONCLUSION

This study highlights the impact of NF1-related itch and visibility in adults and children with a need for cosmetic and itch treatment. The findings emphasize a need for strategies to promote awareness, and access to management and treatment of NF1 in adults.

Finite Element Modelling of Planus and Rectus Foot Types for the Study of First Metatarsophalangeal and First Metatarsocuneiform Joint Contact Mechanics

Evaluating the contact mechanics of human joints is an important element in understanding the pathomechanics of orthopaedic diseases. Although physical testing is essential in the evaluation process, reliable computational models can augment these experiments by non-invasive predictions of biomechanical or surgical variables. The objective of this study was to perform verification of a framework for developing a medial forefoot finite element. Verification was conducted by comparing computational predictions to experimental measurements of first metatarsophalangeal and first metatarsocuneiform joint contact mechanics. A custom-built force-controlled cadaveric test-rig was used to derive measurements of contact pressure, force, and area. A quasi-static finite element was developed and driven under the same boundary and loading conditions. Calibration of cartilage moduli and mesh sensitivity analyses were performed. Mean errors in contact pressures, forces, and areas were 24%, 4%, and 40% at the first metatarsophalangeal joint and 23%, 12%, and 19% at the first Metatarsocuneiform joint, respectively. Verification of a medial forefoot finite element model development framework was presented and found to be within 30% for contact pressure and contact force of both joints. This study presents a method to verify and simulate realistic physiological loading to investigate orthopaedic diseases of the medial forefoot.

Cost-comparison study of reusable and disposable rhinolaryngoscopes in a large English teaching hospital

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to compare the cost per use of video-rhinolaryngoscopy using reusable and disposable devices in a tertiary referral centre.

METHODS

A cost-comparison study was performed that utilised retrospective cost data and prospective utilisation data to compare the total costs of using reusable video-rhinolaryngoscopes versus a single-use alternative.

RESULTS

It was estimated that 4776 and 1821 procedures were performed annually with reusable and disposable video-rhinolaryngoscopes, respectively. The cost per use was £66.61 for reusable devices versus £150.00 for disposable devices. The break-even point (i.e. when cost per use was equal, occurred at 1374 procedures per year). Thereafter, it was cheaper to use reusable devices.

CONCLUSION

Disposable rhinolaryngoscopes may present a cheaper solution to services with low rates of rhinolaryngoscope utilisation. However, for larger services considering replacement of their reusable rhinolaryngoscopes with disposable units, it is likely that the recurring costs will be prohibitive in the medium to long term.

Automated Classification of Changes of Direction in Soccer Using Inertial Measurement Units

Changes of direction (COD) are an important aspect of soccer match play. Understanding the physiological and biomechanical demands on players in games allows sports scientists to effectively train and rehabilitate soccer players. COD are conventionally recorded using manually annotated time-motion video analysis which is highly time consuming, so more time-efficient approaches are required. The aim was to develop an automated classification model based on multi-sensor player tracking device data to detect COD > 45°. Video analysis data and individual multi-sensor player tracking data (GPS, accelerometer, gyroscopic) for 23 academy-level soccer players were used. A novel 'GPS-COD Angle' variable was developed and used in model training; along with 24 GPS-derived, gyroscope and accelerometer variables. Video annotation was the ground truth indicator of occurrence of COD > 45°. The random forest classifier using the full set of features demonstrated the highest accuracy (AUROC = 0.957, 95% CI = 0.956-0.958, Sensitivity = 0.941, Specificity = 0.772. To balance sensitivity and specificity, model parameters were optimised resulting in a value of 0.889 for both metrics. Similarly high levels of accuracy were observed for random forest models trained using a reduced set of features, accelerometer-derived variables only, and gyroscope-derived variables only. These results point to the potential effectiveness of the novel methodology implemented in automatically identifying COD in soccer players.

Increased transmissibility and global spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern as at June 2021

We present a global analysis of the spread of recently emerged SARS-CoV-2 variants and estimate changes in effective reproduction numbers at country-specific level using sequence data from GISAID. Nearly all investigated countries demonstrated rapid replacement of previously circulating lineages by the World Health Organization-designated variants of concern, with estimated transmissibility increases of 29% (95% CI: 24-33), 25% (95% CI: 20-30), 38% (95% CI: 29-48) and 97% (95% CI: 76-117), respectively, for B.1.1.7, B.1.351, P.1 and B.1.617.2.

Systematic Review of Reported HIV Outbreaks, Pakistan, 2000-2019

In the absence of robust testing programs, timely and detailed outbreak reporting is essential for HIV control.

Unsafe injection practices and injection drug use have been linked to multiple HIV outbreaks in Pakistan since 2003; however, few studies have systematically analyzed the causes of these outbreaks. We conducted a systematic review of published English-language literature indexed in bibliographic databases and search engines and a focused gray literature review to collate and analyze all reported HIV outbreaks in Pakistan during 2000–2019. Of 774 unique publications reviewed, we identified 25 eligible publications describing 7 outbreaks. More than half occurred during 2016–2019. The primary sources of transmission were iatrogenic transmission, affecting children, persons with chronic medical conditions, and the general population (4 outbreaks); injection drug use (2 outbreaks); and a combination of both (1 outbreak). In the absence of robust HIV testing and surveillance in Pakistan, timely and detailed outbreak reporting is important to understand the epidemiology of HIV in the country.

Early Insights from Statistical and Mathematical Modeling of Key Epidemiologic Parameters of COVID-19

We report key epidemiologic parameter estimates for coronavirus disease identified in peer-reviewed publications, preprint articles, and online reports. Range estimates for incubation period were 1.8–6.9 days, serial interval 4.0–7.5 days, and doubling time 2.3–7.4 days. The effective reproductive number varied widely, with reductions attributable to interventions. Case burden and infection fatality ratios increased with patient age. Implementation of combined interventions could reduce cases and delay epidemic peak up to 1 month. These parameters for transmission, disease severity, and intervention effectiveness are critical for guiding policy decisions. Estimates will likely change as new information becomes available.

How decision makers can use quantitative approaches to guide outbreak responses

Decision makers are responsible for directing staffing, logistics, selecting public health interventions, communicating to professionals and the public, planning future response needs, and establishing strategic and tactical priorities along with their funding requirements. Decision makers need to rapidly synthesize data from different experts across multiple disciplines, bridge data gaps and translate epidemiological analysis into an operational set of decisions for disease control. Analytic approaches can be defined for specific response phases: investigation, scale-up and control. These approaches include: improved applications of quantitative methods to generate insightful epidemiological descriptions of outbreaks; robust investigations of causal agents and risk factors; tools to assess response needs; identifying and monitoring optimal interventions or combinations of interventions; and forecasting for response planning. Data science and quantitative approaches can improve decision-making in outbreak response. To realize these benefits, we need to develop a structured approach that will improve the quality and timeliness of data collected during outbreaks, establish analytic teams within the response structure and define a research agenda for data analytics in outbreak response.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control’. This theme issue is linked with the earlier issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes’.

Evidence of behaviour change during an Ebola virus disease outbreak, Sierra Leone

Objective

To evaluate changes in Ebola-related knowledge, attitudes and prevention practices during the Sierra Leone outbreak between 2014 and 2015.

Methods

Four cluster surveys were conducted: two before the outbreak peak (3499 participants) and two after (7104 participants). We assessed the effect of temporal and geographical factors on 16 knowledge, attitude and practice outcomes.

Findings

Fourteen of 16 knowledge, attitude and prevention practice outcomes improved across all regions from before to after the outbreak peak. The proportion of respondents willing to: (i) welcome Ebola survivors back into the community increased from 60.0% to 89.4% (adjusted odds ratio, aOR: 6.0; 95% confidence interval, CI: 3.9–9.1); and (ii) wait for a burial team following a relative’s death increased from 86.0% to 95.9% (aOR: 4.4; 95% CI: 3.2–6.0). The proportion avoiding unsafe traditional burials increased from 27.3% to 48.2% (aOR: 3.1; 95% CI: 2.4–4.2) and the proportion believing spiritual healers can treat Ebola decreased from 15.9% to 5.0% (aOR: 0.2; 95% CI: 0.1–0.3). The likelihood respondents would wait for burial teams increased more in high-transmission (aOR: 6.2; 95% CI: 4.2–9.1) than low-transmission (aOR: 2.3; 95% CI: 1.4–3.8) regions. Self-reported avoidance of physical contact with corpses increased in high but not low-transmission regions, aOR: 1.9 (95% CI: 1.4–2.5) and aOR: 0.8 (95% CI: 0.6–1.2), respectively.

Conclusion

Ebola knowledge, attitudes and prevention practices improved during the Sierra Leone outbreak, especially in high-transmission regions. Behaviourally-targeted community engagement should be prioritized early during outbreaks.

Incidence and etiology of infectious diarrhea from a facility-based surveillance system in Guatemala, 2008-2012

BACKGROUND

Diarrhea is a major cause of morbidity and mortality, yet incidence and etiology data are limited. We conducted laboratory-based diarrhea surveillance in Guatemala.

METHODS

A diarrhea case was defined as ≥3 loose stools in a 24-h period in a person presenting to the surveillance facilities. Epidemiologic data and stool specimens were collected. Specimens were tested for bacterial, parasitic, and viral pathogens. Yearly incidence was adjusted for healthcare seeking behaviors determined from a household survey conducted in the surveillance catchment area.

RESULTS

From November 2008 to December 2012, the surveillance system captured 5331 diarrhea cases; among these 1381 (26%) had specimens tested for all enteric pathogens of interest. The adjusted incidence averaged 659 diarrhea cases per 10,000 persons per year, and was highest among children aged < 5 years, averaging 1584 cases per 10,000 children per year. Among 1381 (26%) specimens tested for all the pathogens of interest, 235 (17%) had a viral etiology, 275 (20%) had a bacterial, 50 (4%) had parasites, and 86 (6%) had co-infections. Among 827 (60%) specimens from children aged < 5 years, a virus was identified in 196 (23%) patients; 165 (20%) had norovirus and 99 (12%) rotavirus, including co-infections. Among 554 patients aged ≥5 years, 103 (19%) had a bacterial etiology, including diarrheagenic Escherichia coli in 94 (17%) cases, Shigella spp. in 31 (6%), Campylobacter spp. in 5 (1%), and Salmonella spp. in 4 (1%) cases. Detection of Giardia and Cryptosporidium was infrequent (73 cases; 5%).

CONCLUSIONS

There was a substantial burden of viral and bacterial diarrheal diseases in Guatemala, highlighting the importance of strengthening laboratory capacity for rapid detection and control and for evaluation of public health interventions.

Household Transmission of Ebola Virus: Risks and Preventive Factors, Freetown, Sierra Leone, 2015

Background

Knowing risk factors for household transmission of Ebola virus is important to guide preventive measures during Ebola outbreaks.

Methods

We enrolled all confirmed persons with Ebola who were the first case in a household, December 2014-April 2015, in Freetown, Sierra Leone, and their household contacts. Cases and contacts were interviewed, contacts followed prospectively through the 21-day incubation period, and secondary cases confirmed by laboratory testing.

Results

We enrolled 150 index Ebola cases and 838 contacts; 83 (9.9%) contacts developed Ebola during 21-day follow-up. In multivariable analysis, risk factors for transmission included index case death in the household, Ebola symptoms but no reported fever, age <20 years, more days with wet symptoms; and providing care to the index case (P < .01 for each). Protective factors included avoiding the index case after illness onset and a piped household drinking water source (P < .01 for each).

Conclusions

To reduce Ebola transmission, communities should rapidly identify and follow-up all household contacts; isolate those with Ebola symptoms, including those without reported fever; and consider closer monitoring of contacts who provided care to cases. Households could consider efforts to minimize risk by designating one care provider for ill persons with all others avoiding the suspected case.

Outbreak analytics: a developing data science for informing the response to emerging pathogens

Despite continued efforts to improve health systems worldwide, emerging pathogen epidemics remain a major public health concern. Effective response to such outbreaks relies on timely intervention, ideally informed by all available sources of data. The collection, visualization and analysis of outbreak data are becoming increasingly complex, owing to the diversity in types of data, questions and available methods to address them. Recent advances have led to the rise of outbreak analytics, an emerging data science focused on the technological and methodological aspects of the outbreak data pipeline, from collection to analysis, modelling and reporting to inform outbreak response. In this article, we assess the current state of the field. After laying out the context of outbreak response, we critically review the most common analytics components, their inter-dependencies, data requirements and the type of information they can provide to inform operations in real time. We discuss some challenges and opportunities and conclude on the potential role of outbreak analytics for improving our understanding of, and response to outbreaks of emerging pathogens. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'. This theme issue is linked with the earlier issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'.