Survival Outcomes Associated With First-Line Procarbazine, CCNU, and Vincristine or Temozolomide in Combination With Radiotherapy in IDH-Mutant 1p/19q-Codeleted Grade 3 Oligodendroglioma

PURPOSE

Patients with IDH-mutant 1p/19q-codeleted grade 3 oligodendroglioma (O3IDHmt/Codel) benefit from adding alkylating agent chemotherapy to radiotherapy (RT). However, the optimal chemotherapy regimen between procarbazine, 1-(2-Chloroethyl)-3-cyclohexyl-1-nitrosourea (CCNU), and vincristine (PCV) and temozolomide (TMZ) remains unclear given the lack of randomized trial data comparing both regimens.

METHODS

The objective was to assess the overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) associated with first-line PCV/RT versus TMZ/RT in patients newly diagnosed with O3IDHmt/Codel. We included patients with histologically proven O3IDHmt/Codel (according to WHO criteria) from the French national prospective cohort Prise en charge des OLigodendrogliomes Anaplasiques (POLA). All tumors underwent central pathological review. OS and PFS from surgery were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression model.

RESULTS

305 newly diagnosed patients with O3IDHmt/Codel treated with RT and chemotherapy between 2008 and 2022 were included, of which 67.9% of patients (n = 207) were treated with PCV/RT and 32.1% with TMZ/RT (n = 98). The median follow-up was 78.4 months (IQR, 44.3-102.7). The median OS was not reached (95% CI, Not reached [NR] to NR) in the PCV/RT group and was 140 months (95% CI, 110 to NR) in the TMZ/RT group (log-rank P = .0033). On univariable analysis, there was a significant difference in favor of PCV/RT in both 5-year (PCV/RT: 89%, 95% CI, 85 to 94; TMZ/RT: 75%, 95% CI, 66 to 84) and 10-year OS (PCV/RT: 72%, 95% CI, 61 to 85; TMZ/RT: 60%, 95% CI, 49 to 73), which was confirmed using the multivariable Cox model adjusted for age, type of surgery, gender, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, and CDKN2A homozygous deletion (hazard ratio, 0.53 for PCV/RT, 95% CI, 0.30 to 0.92, P = .025).

CONCLUSION

In patients with newly diagnosed O3IDHmt/Codel from the POLA cohort, first-line PCV/RT was associated with better OS outcomes compared with TMZ/RT. Our data suggest that the improved safety profile associated with TMZ comes at the cost of inferior efficacy in this population. Further investigation using prospective randomized studies is warranted.

Genome-Wide Association Study of Susceptibility to Pseudomonas aeruginosa Infection in Cystic Fibrosis

QUESTION

Pseudomonas aeruginosa (Pa) is a common pathogen that contributes to progressive lung disease in Cystic Fibrosis (CF). Genetic factors other than CF-causing CFTR variations contribute approximately 85% of the variation in chronic Pa infection age in CF according to twin studies, but the susceptibility loci remain unknown. Our objective is to advance understanding of the genetic basis of host susceptibility to Pa infection.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of chronic Pa infection age in 1037 Canadians with CF. We subsequently assessed the genetic correlation between chronic Pa infection age and lung function through polygenic risk score (PRS) analysis and inferred their causal relationship through bi-directional Mendelian Randomization analysis.

RESULTS

Two novel genome-wide significant loci with lead SNPs rs62369766 (chr5p12; p-value= 1.98 ×10-8) and rs927553 (chr13q12.12; p-value= 1.91 × 10-8) were associated with chronic Pa infection age. The rs62369766 locus was validated using an independent French cohort (N=501). Furthermore, PRS constructed from CF lung function-associated SNPs was significantly associated with chronic Pa infection age (p-value=0.002). Finally, our analysis presented evidence for a causal effect of lung function on the chronic Pa infection age (Beta=0.782 years, p-value= 4.24 × 10-4). In the reverse direction, we observed a moderate effect (Beta=0.002, p-value=0.012).

CONCLUSIONS

We identified two novel loci that are associated with chronic Pa infection age in individuals with CF. Additionally, we provided evidence of common genetic contributors and a potential causal relationship between Pa infection susceptibility and lung function in CF. Therapeutics targeting these genetic factors may delay the onset of chronic infections which accounts for significant remaining morbidity in CF.

Shift in emergency department utilization by frequent attendees with sickle cell disease during the COVID-19 pandemic: A multicentre cohort study

While the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) might have increased acute episodes in people living with sickle cell disease (SCD), it may also have changed their reliance on emergency department (ED) services. We assessed the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdowns on ED visits in adult SCD people followed in five French reference centres, with a special focus on 'high users' (≥10 visits in 2019). We analysed the rate of ED visits from 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2021, using a self-controlled case series. Among 1530 people (17 829 ED visits), we observed a significant reduction in ED visits during and after lockdowns, but the effect vanished over time. Compared to pre-pandemic, incidence rate ratios for ED visits were 0.59 [95% CI 0.52-0.67] for the first lockdown, 0.66 [95% CI 0.58-0.75] for the second and 0.85 [95% CI 0.73-0.99] for the third. High users (4% of people but 33.7% of visits) mainly drove the reductions after the first lockdown. COVID-19 lockdowns were associated with reduced ED visits. While most people returned to their baseline utilization by April 2021, high users had a lasting decrease in ED visits. Understanding the factors driving the drop in ED utilization among high users might inform clinical practice and health policy.

Septin-dependent defense mechanisms against Pseudomonas aeruginosa are stalled in cystic fibrosis bronchial epithelial cells

Airway epithelial cells form a physical barrier against inhaled pathogens and coordinate innate immune responses in the lungs. Bronchial cells in people with cystic fibrosis (pwCF) are colonized by Pseudomonas aeruginosa because of the accumulation of mucus in the lower airways and an altered immune response. This leads to chronic inflammation, lung tissue damage, and accelerated decline in lung function. Thus, identifying the molecular factors involved in the host response in the airways is crucial for developing new therapeutic strategies. The septin (SEPT) cytoskeleton is involved in tissue barrier integrity and anti-infective responses. SEPT7 is critical for maintaining SEPT complexes and for sensing pathogenic microbes. In the lungs, SEPT7 may be involved in the epithelial barrier resistance to infection; however, its role in cystic fibrosis (CF) P. aeruginosa infection is unknown. This study aimed to investigate the role of SEPT7 in controlling P. aeruginosa infection in bronchial epithelial cells, particularly in CF. The study findings showed that SEPT7 encages P. aeruginosa in bronchial epithelial cells and its inhibition downregulates the expression of other SEPTs. In addition, P. aeruginosa does not regulate SEPT7 expression. Finally, we found that inhibiting SEPT7 expression in bronchial epithelial cells (BEAS-2B 16HBE14o- and primary cells) resulted in higher levels of internalized P. aeruginosa and decreased IL-6 production during infection, suggesting a crucial role of SEPT7 in the host response against this bacterium. However, these effects were not observed in the CF cells (16HBE14o-/F508del and primary cells) which may explain the persistence of infection in pwCF. The study findings suggest the modification of SEPT7 expression as a potential approach for the anti-infective control of P. aeruginosa, particularly in CF.

Predicting the age of field Anopheles mosquitoes using mass spectrometry and deep learning

Mosquito-borne diseases like malaria are rising globally, and improved mosquito vector surveillance is needed. Survival of Anopheles mosquitoes is key for epidemiological monitoring of malaria transmission and evaluation of vector control strategies targeting mosquito longevity, as the risk of pathogen transmission increases with mosquito age. However, the available tools to estimate field mosquito age are often approximate and time-consuming. Here, we show a rapid method that combines matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization-time-of-flight mass spectrometry with deep learning for mosquito age prediction. Using 2763 mass spectra from the head, legs, and thorax of 251 field-collected Anopheles arabiensis mosquitoes, we developed deep learning models that achieved a best mean absolute error of 1.74 days. We also demonstrate consistent performance at two ecological sites in Senegal, supported by age-related protein changes. Our approach is promising for malaria control and the field of vector biology, benefiting other disease vectors like Aedes mosquitoes.

Drivers and impact of the early silent invasion of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha

SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) circulated cryptically before being identified as a threat, delaying interventions. Here we studied the drivers of such silent spread and its epidemic impact to inform future response planning. We focused on Alpha spread out of the UK. We integrated spatio-temporal records of international mobility, local epidemic growth and genomic surveillance into a Bayesian framework to reconstruct the first three months after Alpha emergence. We found that silent circulation lasted from days to months and decreased with the logarithm of sequencing coverage. Social restrictions in some countries likely delayed the establishment of local transmission, mitigating the negative consequences of late detection. Revisiting the initial spread of Alpha supports local mitigation at the destination in case of emerging events.

Airway infections as a risk factor for Pseudomonas aeruginosa acquisition and chronic colonisation in children with cystic fibrosis

BACKGROUND

Pseudomonas aeruginosa (Pa) infection is detrimental to people with cystic fibrosis (pwCF). Several clinical and genetic factors predispose to early Pa infections. However, the role of earlier infections with other pathogens on the risk of Pa infection in paediatric pwCF remains unknown.

METHODS

Using Kaplan-Meier method, we computed the cumulative incidences of bacterial and fungal initial acquisition (IA) and chronic colonisation (CC) in 1,231 French pwCF under 18 years of age for methicillin-susceptible and resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MSSA and MRSA), Stenotrophomonas maltophilia, Haemophilus influenzae, Achromobacter xylosoxidans, and Aspergillus species. Previous infections were analysed as Pa-IA and Pa-CC risk factors using Cox regression models.

RESULTS

By 2 years of age, 65.5% pwCF had experienced at least one bacterial or fungal IA, and 27.9% had experienced at least one CC. The median age of Pa-IA was 5.1 years, and Pa-CC was present in 25% pwCF by 14.7 years. While 50% acquired MSSA at 2.1 years, 50% progressed to chronic MSSA colonisation at 8.4 years. At 7.9 and 9.7 years, 25% pwCF were infected by S. maltophilia and Aspergillus spp., respectively. The risk of Pa-IA and Pa-CC increased with IAs of all other species, with hazard ratios (HR) up to 2.19 (95% Confidence interval (CI) 1.18-4.07). The risk of Pa-IA increased with the number of previous bacterial/fungal IAs (HR=1.89, 95% CI 1.57-2.28), with a 16% increase per additional pathogen; same trend was noted for Pa-CC.

CONCLUSIONS

This study establishes that the microbial community in CF airways can modulate Pa occurrence. At the dawn of targeted therapies, it paves the way for characterizing future trends and evolution of infections.

Spatial and Ecological Factors Modulate the Incidence of Anti-NMDAR Encephalitis-A Systematic Review

Anti-NMDAR encephalitis has been associated with multiple antigenic triggers (i.e., ovarian teratomas, prodromal viral infections) but whether geographic, climatic, and environmental factors might influence disease risk has not been explored yet. We performed a systematic review and a meta-analysis of all published papers reporting the incidence of anti-NMDAR encephalitis in a definite country or region. We performed several multivariate spatial autocorrelation analyses to analyze the spatial variations in the incidence of anti-NMDA encephalitis depending on its geographical localization and temperature. Finally, we performed seasonal analyses in two original datasets from France and Greece and assessed the impact of temperature using an exposure-lag-response model in the French dataset. The reported incidence of anti-NMDAR encephalitis varied considerably among studies and countries, being higher in Oceania and South America (0.2 and 0.16 per 100,000 persons-year, respectively) compared to Europe and North America (0.06 per 100,000 persons-year) (p < 0.01). Different regression models confirmed a strong negative correlation with latitude (Pearson's R = -0.88, p < 0.00001), with higher incidence in southern hemisphere countries far from the equator. Seasonal analyses showed a peak of cases during warm months. Exposure-lag-response models confirmed a positive correlation between extreme hot temperatures and the incidence of anti-NMDAR encephalitis in France (p = 0.03). Temperature analyses showed a significant association with higher mean temperatures and positive correlation with higher ultraviolet exposure worldwide. This study provides the first evidence that geographic and climatic factors including latitude, mean annual temperature, and ultraviolet exposure, might modify disease risk.

Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions, weather, vaccination, and variants on COVID-19 transmission across departments in France

BACKGROUND

Multiple factors shape the temporal dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic. Quantifying their relative contributions is key to guide future control strategies. Our objective was to disentangle the individual effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), weather, vaccination, and variants of concern (VOC) on local SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

METHODS

We developed a log-linear model for the weekly reproduction number (R) of hospital admissions in 92 French metropolitan departments. We leveraged (i) the homogeneity in data collection and NPI definitions across departments, (ii) the spatial heterogeneity in the timing of NPIs, and (iii) an extensive observation period (14 months) covering different weather conditions, VOC proportions, and vaccine coverage levels.

FINDINGS

Three lockdowns reduced R by 72.7% (95% CI 71.3-74.1), 70.4% (69.2-71.6) and 60.7% (56.4-64.5), respectively. Curfews implemented at 6/7 pm and 8/9 pm reduced R by 34.3% (27.9-40.2) and 18.9% (12.04-25.3), respectively. School closures reduced R by only 4.9% (2.0-7.8). We estimated that vaccination of the entire population would have reduced R by 71.7% (56.4-81.6), whereas the emergence of VOC (mainly Alpha during the study period) increased transmission by 44.6% (36.1-53.6) compared with the historical variant. Winter weather conditions (lower temperature and absolute humidity) increased R by 42.2% (37.3-47.3) compared to summer weather conditions. Additionally, we explored counterfactual scenarios (absence of VOC or vaccination) to assess their impact on hospital admissions.

INTERPRETATION

Our study demonstrates the strong effectiveness of NPIs and vaccination and quantifies the role of weather while adjusting for other confounders. It highlights the importance of retrospective evaluation of interventions to inform future decision-making.

Global patterns and drivers of influenza decline during the COVID-19 pandemic

OBJECTIVES

The influenza circulation reportedly declined during the COVID-19 pandemic in many countries. The occurrence of this change has not been studied worldwide nor its potential drivers.

METHODS

The change in the proportion of positive influenza samples reported by country and trimester was computed relative to the 2014-2019 period using the FluNet database. Random forests were used to determine predictors of change from demographical, weather, pandemic preparedness, COVID-19 incidence, and pandemic response characteristics. Regression trees were used to classify observations according to these predictors.

RESULTS

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the influenza decline relative to prepandemic levels was global but heterogeneous across space and time. It was more than 50% for 311 of 376 trimesters-countries and even more than 99% for 135. COVID-19 incidence and pandemic preparedness were the two most important predictors of the decline. Europe and North America initially showed limited decline despite high COVID-19 restrictions; however, there was a strong decline afterward in most temperate countries, where pandemic preparedness, COVID-19 incidence, and social restrictions were high; the decline was limited in countries where these factors were low. The "zero-COVID" countries experienced the greatest decline.

CONCLUSION

Our findings set the stage for interpreting the resurgence of influenza worldwide.

Screening and vaccination against COVID-19 to minimise school closure: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Schools were closed extensively in 2020-21 to counter SARS-CoV-2 spread, impacting students' education and wellbeing. With highly contagious variants expanding in Europe, safe options to maintain schools open are urgently needed. By estimating school-specific transmissibility, our study evaluates costs and benefits of different protocols for SARS-CoV-2 control at school.

METHODS

We developed an agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in schools. We used empirical contact data in a primary and a secondary school and data from pilot screenings in 683 schools during the alpha variant (B.1.1.7) wave in March-June, 2021, in France. We fitted the model to observed school prevalence to estimate the school-specific effective reproductive number for the alpha (Ralpha) and delta (B.1.617.2; Rdelta) variants and performed a cost-benefit analysis examining different intervention protocols.

FINDINGS

We estimated Ralpha to be 1·40 (95% CI 1·35-1·45) in the primary school and 1·46 (1·41-1·51) in the secondary school during the spring wave, higher than the time-varying reproductive number estimated from community surveillance. Considering the delta variant and vaccination coverage in Europe as of mid-September, 2021, we estimated Rdelta to be 1·66 (1·60-1·71) in primary schools and 1·10 (1·06-1·14) in secondary schools. Under these conditions, weekly testing of 75% of unvaccinated students (PCR tests on saliva samples in primary schools and lateral flow tests in secondary schools), in addition to symptom-based testing, would reduce cases by 34% (95% CI 32-36) in primary schools and 36% (35-39) in secondary schools compared with symptom-based testing alone. Insufficient adherence was recorded in pilot screening (median ≤53%). Regular testing would also reduce student-days lost up to 80% compared with reactive class closures. Moderate vaccination coverage in students would still benefit from regular testing for additional control-ie, weekly testing 75% of unvaccinated students would reduce cases compared with symptom-based testing only, by 23% in primary schools when 50% of children are vaccinated.

INTERPRETATION

The COVID-19 pandemic will probably continue to pose a risk to the safe and normal functioning of schools. Extending vaccination coverage in students, complemented by regular testing with good adherence, are essential steps to keep schools open when highly transmissible variants are circulating.

FUNDING

EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation Horizon 2020, Horizon Europe Framework Programme, Agence Nationale de la Recherche, ANRS-Maladies Infectieuses Émergentes.

An ensemble model based on early predictors to forecast COVID-19 health care demand in France

Short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 pandemic is required to facilitate the planning of COVID-19 health care demand in hospitals. Here, we evaluate the performance of 12 individual models and 19 predictors to anticipate French COVID-19-related health care needs from September 7, 2020, to March 6, 2021. We then build an ensemble model by combining the individual forecasts and retrospectively test this model from March 7, 2021, to July 6, 2021. We find that the inclusion of early predictors (epidemiological, mobility, and meteorological predictors) can halve the rms error for 14-d–ahead forecasts, with epidemiological and mobility predictors contributing the most to the improvement. On average, the ensemble model is the best or second-best model, depending on the evaluation metric. Our approach facilitates the comparison and benchmarking of competing models through their integration in a coherent analytical framework, ensuring that avenues for future improvements can be identified.

Agent-based modelling of reactive vaccination of workplaces and schools against COVID-19

With vaccination against COVID-19 stalled in some countries, increasing vaccine accessibility and distribution could help keep transmission under control. Here, we study the impact of reactive vaccination targeting schools and workplaces where cases are detected, with an agent-based model accounting for COVID-19 natural history, vaccine characteristics, demographics, behavioural changes and social distancing. In most scenarios, reactive vaccination leads to a higher reduction in cases compared with non-reactive strategies using the same number of doses. The reactive strategy could however be less effective than a moderate/high pace mass vaccination program if initial vaccination coverage is high or disease incidence is low, because few people would be vaccinated around each case. In case of flare-ups, reactive vaccination could better mitigate spread if it is implemented quickly, is supported by enhanced test-trace-isolate and triggers an increased vaccine uptake. These results provide key information to plan an adaptive vaccination rollout.

SLC6A14 Impacts Cystic Fibrosis Lung Disease Severity via mTOR and Epithelial Repair Modulation

Cystic fibrosis (CF), due to pathogenic variants in CFTR gene, is associated with chronic infection/inflammation responsible for airway epithelium alteration and lung function decline. Modifier genes induce phenotype variability between people with CF (pwCF) carrying the same CFTR variants. Among these, the gene encoding for the amino acid transporter SLC6A14 has been associated with lung disease severity and age of primary airway infection by the bacteria Pseudomonas aeruginosa. In this study, we investigated whether the single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs3788766, located within SLC6A14 promoter, is associated with lung disease severity in a large French cohort of pwCF. We also studied the consequences of this SNP on SLC6A14 promoter activity using a luciferase reporter and the role of SLC6A14 in the mechanistic target of rapamycin kinase (mTOR) signaling pathway and airway epithelial repair. We confirm that SLC6A14 rs3788766 SNP is associated with lung disease severity in pwCF (p = 0.020; n = 3,257, pancreatic insufficient, aged 6-40 years old), with the minor allele G being deleterious. In bronchial epithelial cell lines deficient for CFTR, SLC6A14 promoter activity is reduced in the presence of the rs3788766 G allele. SLC6A14 inhibition with a specific pharmacological blocker reduced 3H-arginine transport, mTOR phosphorylation, and bronchial epithelial repair rates in wound healing assays. To conclude, our study highlights that SLC6A14 genotype might affect lung disease severity of people with cystic fibrosis via mTOR and epithelial repair mechanism modulation in the lung.

SARS-CoV-2 in Nursing Homes: Analysis of Routine Surveillance Data in Four European Countries

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in nursing homes is poorly documented. Using surveillance data of 228 European private nursing homes, we estimated weekly SARS-CoV-2 incidences among 21,467 residents and 14,371 staff members, compared to that in the general population, between August 3, 2020, and February 20, 2021. We studied the outcomes of "episodes of introduction" where one case was first detected and computed attack rates, reproduction ratio (R), and dispersion parameter (k). Out of 502 episodes of SARS-CoV-2 introduction, 77.1% (95%CI, 73.2%-80.6%) led to additional cases. Attack rates were highly variable, ranging from 0.4% to 86.5%. The R was 1.16 (95%CI, 1.11-1.22) with k at 2.5 (95%CI, 0.5-4.5). The timing of viral circulation in nursing homes did not mirror that in the general population (p-values<0.001). We estimated the impact of vaccination in preventing SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Before vaccination's roll-out, a cumulated 5,579 SARS-CoV-2 infections were documented among residents and 2,321 among staff. Higher staffing ratio and previous natural immunization reduced the probability of an outbreak following introduction. Despite strong preventive measures, transmission likely occurred, regardless of building characteristics. Vaccination started on January 15, 2021, and coverage reached 65.0% among residents, and 42.0% among staff by February 20, 2021. Vaccination yielded a 92% reduction (95%CI, 71%-98%) of outbreak probability, and lowered R to 0.87 (95%CI, 0.69-1.10). In the post-pandemic era, much attention will have to be paid to multi-lateral collaboration, policy making, and prevention plans.

Adherence and sustainability of interventions informing optimal control against the COVID-19 pandemic

Background

After one year of stop-and-go COVID-19 mitigation, in the spring of 2021 European countries still experienced sustained viral circulation due to the Alpha variant. As the prospect of entering a new pandemic phase through vaccination was drawing closer, a key challenge remained on how to balance the efficacy of long-lasting interventions and their impact on the quality of life.

Methods

Focusing on the third wave in France during spring 2021, we simulate intervention scenarios of varying intensity and duration, with potential waning of adherence over time, based on past mobility data and modeling estimates. We identify optimal strategies by balancing efficacy of interventions with a data-driven "distress" index, integrating intensity and duration of social distancing.

Results

We show that moderate interventions would require a much longer time to achieve the same result as high intensity lockdowns, with the additional risk of deteriorating control as adherence wanes. Shorter strict lockdowns are largely more effective than longer moderate lockdowns, for similar intermediate distress and infringement on individual freedom.

Conclusions

Our study shows that favoring milder interventions over more stringent short approaches on the basis of perceived acceptability could be detrimental in the long term, especially with waning adherence.

Lockdown impact on age-specific contact patterns and behaviours, France, April 2020

BackgroundMany countries implemented national lockdowns to contain the rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2 and avoid overburdening healthcare capacity.AimWe aimed to quantify how the French lockdown impacted population mixing, contact patterns and behaviours.MethodsWe conducted an online survey using convenience sampling and collected information from participants aged 18 years and older between 10 April and 28 April 2020.ResultAmong the 42,036 survey participants, 72% normally worked outside their home, and of these, 68% changed to telework during lockdown and 17% reported being unemployed during lockdown. A decrease in public transport use was reported from 37% to 2%. Participants reported increased frequency of hand washing and changes in greeting behaviour. Wearing masks in public was generally limited. A total of 138,934 contacts were reported, with an average of 3.3 contacts per individual per day; 1.7 in the participants aged 65 years and older compared with 3.6 for younger age groups. This represented a 70% reduction compared with previous surveys, consistent with SARS-CoV2 transmission reduction measured during the lockdown. For those who maintained a professional activity outside home, the frequency of contacts at work dropped by 79%.ConclusionThe lockdown affected the population's behaviour, work, risk perception and contact patterns. The frequency and heterogeneity of contacts, both of which are critical factors in determining how viruses spread, were affected. Such surveys are essential to evaluate the impact of lockdowns more accurately and anticipate epidemic dynamics in these conditions.

SARS-CoV-2 transmission across age groups in France and implications for control

The shielding of older individuals has been proposed to limit COVID-19 hospitalizations while relaxing general social distancing in the absence of vaccines. Evaluating such approaches requires a deep understanding of transmission dynamics across ages. Here, we use detailed age-specific case and hospitalization data to model the rebound in the French epidemic in summer 2020, characterize age-specific transmission dynamics and critically evaluate different age-targeted intervention measures in the absence of vaccines. We find that while the rebound started in young adults, it reached individuals aged ≥80 y.o. after 4 weeks, despite substantial contact reductions, indicating substantial transmission flows across ages. We derive the contribution of each age group to transmission. While shielding older individuals reduces mortality, it is insufficient to allow major relaxations of social distancing. When the epidemic remains manageable (R close to 1), targeting those most contributing to transmission is better than shielding at-risk individuals. Pandemic control requires an effort from all age groups.

Computerized decision support system (CDSS) use for surveillance of antimicrobial resistance in urinary tract infections in primary care

BACKGROUND

Hospital-based surveillance of antimicrobial resistance may be irrelevant as a guide to antimicrobial use for urinary tract infections (UTIs) in primary care.

OBJECTIVES

To highlight the value of online computerized decision support systems (CDSS) in providing information on the surveillance of antimicrobial resistance in community-acquired UTIs.

METHODS

We collected the susceptibility profile for key antibiotics by type of UTI involving Escherichia coli from 2017 to 2020, using queries for UTI (Q-UTI) submitted to a French CDSS. We compared these results with those from the MedQual French surveillance system for community-acquired UTI and the European Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance Network (EARS-NET) for invasive infections.

RESULTS

We collected 43 591 Q-UTI, of which 10 192 (23%) involved E. coli: 40% cystitis, 32% male-UTI, and 27% pyelonephritis. Resistance was 41.3% (95% CI, 40.3%-42.2%) for amoxicillin, 16.6% (95% CI, 15.9%-17.3%) for fluoroquinolones, 6.6% (95% CI, 6.1%-7.0%) for third-generation cephalosporins (3GC), and 5.7% (95% CI, 5.2%-6.1%) for aminoglycosides. Resistance to amoxicillin was lower than that reported in MedQual (42.7%, P value = 0.004), and in EARS-NET (55.2%, P value < 0.001). For fluoroquinolones, resistance was higher than in MedQual (12.0%, P value < 0.001) and EARS-NET (15.8%, P value = 0.041). In complicated pyelonephritis and male UTI, fluoroquinolone resistance peaked at ∼20%. For 3GC, all UTI had higher resistance than in MedQual (3.5%, P value < 0.001), but lower than in EARS-NET (9.5%, P value < 0.001). Aminoglycoside resistance was not reported by MedQual, and was lower than in EARS-NET (7.1%, P value < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

CDSS can inform prescribers in real-time about the ecology and surveillance of E. coli resistance in community-acquired UTI. In complicated upper UTIs, they can underline the risk of empirical use of fluoroquinolones and suggest preferential use of 3GC.

Low-Coverage Whole Genome Sequencing of Cell-Free DNA From Immunosuppressed Cancer Patients Enables Tumor Fraction Determination and Reveals Relevant Copy Number Alterations

Cell-free DNA (cfDNA) analysis is a minimally invasive method that can be used to detect genomic abnormalities by directly testing a blood sample. This method is particularly useful for immunosuppressed patients, who are at high risk of complications from tissue biopsy. The cfDNA tumor fraction (TF) varies greatly across cancer type and between patients. Thus, the detection of molecular alterations is highly dependent on the circulating TF. In our study, we aimed to calculate the TF and characterize the copy number aberration (CNA) profile of cfDNA from patients with rare malignancies occurring in immunosuppressed environments or immune-privileged sites. To accomplish this, we recruited 36 patients: 19 patients with non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) who were either human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive or organ transplant recipients, 5 HIV-positive lung cancer patients, and 12 patients with glioma. cfDNA was extracted from the patients' plasma and sequenced using low-coverage whole genome sequencing (LC-WGS). The cfDNA TF was then calculated using the ichorCNA bioinformatic algorithm, based on the CNA profile. In parallel, we performed whole exome sequencing of patient tumor tissue and cfDNA samples with detectable TFs. We detected a cfDNA TF in 29% of immune-suppressed patients (one patient with lung cancer and six with systemic NHL), with a TF range from 8 to 70%. In these patients, the events detected in the CNA profile of cfDNA are well-known events associated with NHL and lung cancer. Moreover, cfDNA CNA profile correlated with the CNA profile of matched tumor tissue. No tumor-derived cfDNA was detected in the glioma patients. Our study shows that tumor genetic content is detectable in cfDNA from immunosuppressed patients with advanced NHL or lung cancer. LC-WGS is a time- and cost-effective method that can help select an appropriate strategy for performing extensive molecular analysis of cfDNA. This technique also enables characterization of CNAs in cfDNA when sufficient tumor content is available. Hence, this approach can be used to collect useful molecular information that is relevant to patient care.

Common communicable diseases in the general population in France during the COVID-19 pandemic

In France, social distancing measures have been adopted to contain the spread of COVID-19, culminating in national Lockdowns. The use of hand washing, hydro-alcoholic rubs and mask-wearing also increased over time. As these measures are likely to impact the transmission of many communicable diseases, we studied the changes in common infectious diseases incidence in France during the first year of COVID-19 circulation. We examined the weekly incidence of acute gastroenteritis, chickenpox, acute respiratory infections and bronchiolitis reported in general practitioner networks since January 2016. We obtained search engine query volume for French terms related to these diseases and sales data for relevant drugs over the same period. A periodic regression model was fit to disease incidence, drug sales and search query volume before the COVID-19 period and extrapolated afterwards. We compared the expected values with observations made in 2020. During the first lockdown period, incidence dropped by 67% for gastroenteritis, by 79% for bronchiolitis, by 49% for acute respiratory infection and 90% for chickenpox compared to the past years. Reductions with respect to the expected incidence reflected the strength of implemented measures. Incidence in children was impacted the most. Reduction in primary care consultations dropped during a short period at the beginning of the first lockdown period but remained more than 95% of the expected value afterwards. In primary care, the large decrease in reported gastroenteritis, chickenpox or bronchiolitis observed during the period where many barrier measures were implemented imply that the circulation of common viruses was reduced and informs on the overall effect of these measures.

Risk factors for Pseudomonas aeruginosa airway infection and lung function decline in children with cystic fibrosis

Background Cystic fibrosis (CF) lung disease is characterised by recurrent Pseudomonas aeruginosa (Pa) infections, leading to structural lung damage and decreased survival. The epidemiology of Pa infection and its impact on lung function in people with CF (pwCF), especially in recent birth cohorts, remain uncertain. Methods We included 1,231 French pwCF under 18 years of age. Age at initial acquisition (Pa-IA), chronic colonisation (Pa-CC), and duration from Pa-IA to Pa-CC were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Demographic, clinical, and genetic characteristics were analysed as risk factors for Pa infection using Cox regression models. Lung function decline was assessed by modelling percent-predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 s (ppFEV1) before Pa infection, after Pa-IA, and after Pa-CC. Results Among the 1,231 pwCF, 50% had Pa-IA by the age of 5.1 years [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.8-6.2] and 25% had Pa-CC by the age of 14.7 years (95% CI 12.1 to ∞). We observed that CF-related diabetes and liver disease were risk factors for Pa, while gender, CFTR variants, and CF centre size were not. Genetic variants of TNF, DCTN4, SLC9A3, and CAV2 were confirmed to be associated with Pa. The annual rate of ppFEV1 decline before Pa was -0.38% predicted/year (95% CI -0.59 to -0.18), which decreased significantly after Pa-IA to -0.93% predicted/year (95% CI -1.14 to -0.71) and after Pa-CC to -1.51% predicted/year (95% CI -1.86 to -1.16). Conclusions We identified and replicated several risk factors associated with Pa infection and showed its deleterious impact on lung function in young pwCF. This large-scale study confirmed that Pa airway infection is a major determinant of lung disease severity.

A modelling study investigating short and medium-term challenges for COVID-19 vaccination: From prioritisation to the relaxation of measures

BACKGROUND

The roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines is a multi-faceted challenge whose performance depends on pace of vaccination, vaccine characteristics and heterogeneities in individual risks.

METHODS

We developed a mathematical model accounting for the risk of severe disease by age and comorbidity, and transmission dynamics. We compared vaccine prioritisation strategies in the early roll-out stage and quantified the extent to which measures could be relaxed as a function of the vaccine coverage achieved in France.

FINDINGS

Prioritizing at-risk individuals reduces morbi-mortality the most if vaccines only reduce severity, but is of less importance if vaccines also substantially reduce infectivity or susceptibility. Age is the most important factor to consider for prioritization; additionally accounting for comorbidities increases the performance of the campaign in a context of scarce resources. Vaccinating 90% of ≥65 y.o. and 70% of 18-64 y.o. before autumn 2021 with a vaccine that reduces severity by 90% and susceptibility by 80%, we find that control measures reducing transmission rates by 15-27% should be maintained to remain below 1000 daily hospital admissions in France with a highly transmissible variant (basic reproduction number R0  = 4). Assuming 90% of ≥65 y.o. are vaccinated, full relaxation of control measures might be achieved with a vaccine coverage of 89-100% in 18-64 y.o or 60-69% of 0-64 y.o.

INTERPRETATION

Age and comorbidity-based vaccine prioritization strategies could reduce the burden of the disease. Very high vaccination coverage may be required to completely relax control measures. Vaccination of children, if possible, could lower coverage targets necessary to achieve this objective.