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Jung SM, Loo SL, Howerton E, Contamin L, Smith CP, Carcelén EC, Yan K, Bents SJ, Levander J, Espino J, Lemaitre JC, Sato K, McKee CD, Hill AL, Chinazzi M, Davis JT, Mu K, Vespignani A, Rosenstrom ET, Rodriguez-Cartes SA, Ivy JS, Mayorga ME, Swann JL, España G, Cavany S, Moore SM, Perkins TA, Chen S, Paul R, Janies D, Thill JC, Srivastava A, Aawar MA, Bi K, Bandekar SR, Bouchnita A, Fox SJ, Meyers LA, Porebski P, Venkatramanan S, Adiga A, Hurt B, Klahn B, Outten J, Chen J, Mortveit H, Wilson A, Hoops S, Bhattacharya P, Machi D, Vullikanti A, Lewis B, Marathe M, Hochheiser H, Runge MC, Shea K, Truelove S, Viboud C, Lessler J. Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: Lessons from the US COVID-19 scenario modeling hub. PLoS Med 2024; 21:e1004387. [PMID: 38630802 PMCID: PMC11062554 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1004387] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/27/2023] [Revised: 05/01/2024] [Accepted: 03/27/2024] [Indexed: 04/19/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear. Here, we present projections of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in the United States for the next 2 years under 2 plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and 3 possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65 years and over, vaccination for all eligible age groups based on FDA approval). METHODS AND FINDINGS The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023 and April 15, 2025 under 6 scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. Annually reformulated vaccines are assumed to be 65% effective against symptomatic infection with strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age- and state-specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster. State and national projections from 8 modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario and expected reductions in disease outcomes due to vaccination over the projection period. From April 15, 2023 to April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November to January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% projection interval (PI) [1,438,000, 4,270,000]) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI [139,000, 461,000]) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% confidence interval (CI) [104,000, 355,000]) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI [12,000, 54,000]) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000-598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI [29,000, 69,000]) fewer deaths. CONCLUSIONS COVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming 2 years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease, saving tens of thousands of lives each year.
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Mehta Y, Ansari AS, Mandal AK, Chatterjee D, Sharma GS, Sathe P, Umraniya PV, Paul R, Gupta S, Singh V, Singh YP. Systematic review with expert consensus on use of extracorporeal hemoadsorption in septic shock: An Indian perspective. World J Crit Care Med 2024; 13:89026. [PMID: 38633478 PMCID: PMC11019629 DOI: 10.5492/wjccm.v13.i1.89026] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/18/2023] [Revised: 12/05/2023] [Accepted: 01/17/2024] [Indexed: 03/05/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Septic shock is a severe form of sepsis characterised by deterioration in circulatory and cellular-metabolic parameters. Despite standard therapy, the outcomes are poor. Newer adjuvant therapy, such as CytoSorb® extracorporeal haemoadsorption device, has been investigated and shown promising outcome. However, there is a lack of some guidance to make clinical decisions on the use of CytoSorb® haemoadsorption as an adjuvant therapy in septic shock in Indian Setting. Therefore, this expert consensus was formulated. AIM To formulate/establish specific consensus statements on the use of CytoSorb® haemoadsorption treatment based on the best available evidence and contextualised to the Indian scenario. METHODS We performed a comprehensive literature on CytoSorb® haemoadsorption in sepsis, septic shock in PubMed selecting papers published between January 2011 and March 2023 2021 in English language. The statements for a consensus document were developed based on the summarised literature analysis and identification of knowledge gaps. Using a modified Delphi approach combining evidence appraisal and expert opinion, the following topics related to CytoSorb® in septic shock were addressed: need for adjuvant therapy, initiation timeline, need for Interleukin -6 levels, duration of therapy, change of adsorbers, safety, prerequisite condition, efficacy endpoints and management flowchart. Eleven expert members from critical care, emergency medicine, and the intensive care participated and voted on nine statements and one open-ended question. RESULTS Eleven expert members from critical care, emergency medicine, and the intensive care participated and voted on nine statements and one open-ended question. All 11 experts in the consensus group (100%) participated in the first, second and third round of voting. After three iterative voting rounds and adapting two statements, consensus was achieved on nine statements out of nine statements. The consensus expert panel also recognised the necessity to form an association or society that can keep a registry regarding the use of CytoSorb® for all indications in the open-ended question (Q10) focusing on "future recommendations for CytoSorb® therapy". CONCLUSION This Indian perspective consensus statement supports and provides guidance on the use of CytoSorb® haemoadsorption as an adjuvant treatment in patients with septic shock to achieve optimal outcomes.
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Ustunel S, Pandya H, Prévôt ME, Pegorin G, Shiralipour F, Paul R, Clements RJ, Khabaz F, Hegmann E. A Molecular Rheology Dynamics Study on 3D Printing of Liquid Crystal Elastomers. Macromol Rapid Commun 2024:e2300717. [PMID: 38445752 DOI: 10.1002/marc.202300717] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/13/2023] [Revised: 02/26/2024] [Indexed: 03/07/2024]
Abstract
This work presents a rheological study of a biocompatible and biodegradable liquid crystal elastomer (LCE) ink for three dimensional (3D) printing. These materials have shown that their structural variations have an effect on morphology, mechanical properties, alignment, and their impact on cell response. Within the last decade LCEs are extensively studied as potential printing materials for soft robotics applications, due to the actuation properties that are produced when liquid crystal (LC) moieties are induced through external stimuli. This report utilizes experiments and coarse-grained molecular dynamics to study the macroscopic rheology of LCEs in nonlinear shear flow. Results from the shear flow simulations are in line with the outcomes of these experimental investigations. This work believes the insights from these results can be used to design and print new material with desirable properties necessary for targeted applications.
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Lenoir KM, Paul R, Wright E, Palakshappa D, Pajewski NM, Hanchate A, Hughes JM, Gabbard J, Wells BJ, Dulin M, Houlihan J, Callahan KE. The Association of Frailty and Neighborhood Disadvantage with Emergency Department Visits and Hospitalizations in Older Adults. J Gen Intern Med 2024; 39:643-651. [PMID: 37932543 PMCID: PMC10973290 DOI: 10.1007/s11606-023-08503-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/13/2023] [Accepted: 10/20/2023] [Indexed: 11/08/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Risk stratification and population management strategies are critical for providing effective and equitable care for the growing population of older adults in the USA. Both frailty and neighborhood disadvantage are constructs that independently identify populations with higher healthcare utilization and risk of adverse outcomes. OBJECTIVE To examine the joint association of these factors on acute healthcare utilization using two pragmatic measures based on structured data available in the electronic health record (EHR). DESIGN In this retrospective observational study, we used EHR data to identify patients aged ≥ 65 years at Atrium Health Wake Forest Baptist on January 1, 2019, who were attributed to affiliated Accountable Care Organizations. Frailty was categorized through an EHR-derived electronic Frailty Index (eFI), while neighborhood disadvantage was quantified through linkage to the area deprivation index (ADI). We used a recurrent time-to-event model within a Cox proportional hazards framework to examine the joint association of eFI and ADI categories with healthcare utilization comprising emergency visits, observation stays, and inpatient hospitalizations over one year of follow-up. KEY RESULTS We identified a cohort of 47,566 older adults (median age = 73, 60% female, 12% Black). There was an interaction between frailty and area disadvantage (P = 0.023). Each factor was associated with utilization across categories of the other. The magnitude of frailty's association was larger than living in a disadvantaged area. The highest-risk group comprised frail adults living in areas of high disadvantage (HR 3.23, 95% CI 2.99-3.49; P < 0.001). We observed additive effects between frailty and living in areas of mid- (RERI 0.29; 95% CI 0.13-0.45; P < 0.001) and high (RERI 0.62, 95% CI 0.41-0.83; P < 0.001) neighborhood disadvantage. CONCLUSIONS Considering both frailty and neighborhood disadvantage may assist healthcare organizations in effectively risk-stratifying vulnerable older adults and informing population management strategies. These constructs can be readily assessed at-scale using routinely collected structured EHR data.
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Wen CC, Baker N, Paul R, Hill E, Hunt K, Li H, Gray K, Neelon B. A Bayesian zero-inflated beta-binomial model for longitudinal data with group-specific changepoints. Stat Med 2024; 43:125-140. [PMID: 37942694 DOI: 10.1002/sim.9945] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/08/2023] [Revised: 08/25/2023] [Accepted: 10/12/2023] [Indexed: 11/10/2023]
Abstract
Timeline followback (TLFB) is often used in addiction research to monitor recent substance use, such as the number of abstinent days in the past week. TLFB data usually take the form of binomial counts that exhibit overdispersion and zero inflation. Motivated by a 12-week randomized trial evaluating the efficacy of varenicline tartrate for smoking cessation among adolescents, we propose a Bayesian zero-inflated beta-binomial model for the analysis of longitudinal, bounded TLFB data. The model comprises a mixture of a point mass that accounts for zero inflation and a beta-binomial distribution for the number of days abstinent in the past week. Because treatment effects appear to level off during the study, we introduce random changepoints for each study group to reflect group-specific changes in treatment efficacy over time. The model also includes fixed and random effects that capture group- and subject-level slopes before and after the changepoints. Using the model, we can accurately estimate the mean trend for each study group, test whether the groups experience changepoints simultaneously, and identify critical windows of treatment efficacy. For posterior computation, we propose an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that relies on easily sampled Gibbs and Metropolis-Hastings steps. Our application shows that the varenicline group has a short-term positive effect on abstinence that tapers off after week 9.
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Staplin N, Haynes R, Judge PK, Wanner C, Green JB, Emberson J, Preiss D, Mayne KJ, Ng SYA, Sammons E, Zhu D, Hill M, Stevens W, Wallendszus K, Brenner S, Cheung AK, Liu ZH, Li J, Hooi LS, Liu WJ, Kadowaki T, Nangaku M, Levin A, Cherney D, Maggioni AP, Pontremoli R, Deo R, Goto S, Rossello X, Tuttle KR, Steubl D, Petrini M, Seidi S, Landray MJ, Baigent C, Herrington WG, Abat S, Abd Rahman R, Abdul Cader R, Abdul Hafidz MI, Abdul Wahab MZ, Abdullah NK, Abdul-Samad T, Abe M, Abraham N, Acheampong S, Achiri P, Acosta JA, Adeleke A, Adell V, Adewuyi-Dalton R, Adnan N, Africano A, Agharazii M, Aguilar F, Aguilera A, Ahmad M, Ahmad MK, Ahmad NA, Ahmad NH, Ahmad NI, Ahmad Miswan N, Ahmad Rosdi H, Ahmed I, Ahmed S, Ahmed S, Aiello J, Aitken A, AitSadi R, Aker S, Akimoto S, Akinfolarin A, Akram S, Alberici F, Albert C, Aldrich L, Alegata M, Alexander L, Alfaress S, Alhadj Ali M, Ali A, Ali A, Alicic R, Aliu A, Almaraz R, Almasarwah R, Almeida J, Aloisi A, Al-Rabadi L, Alscher D, Alvarez P, Al-Zeer B, Amat M, Ambrose C, Ammar H, An Y, Andriaccio L, Ansu K, Apostolidi A, Arai N, Araki H, Araki S, Arbi A, Arechiga O, Armstrong S, Arnold T, Aronoff S, Arriaga W, Arroyo J, Arteaga D, Asahara S, Asai A, Asai N, Asano S, Asawa M, Asmee MF, Aucella F, Augustin M, Avery A, Awad A, Awang IY, Awazawa M, Axler A, Ayub W, Azhari Z, Baccaro R, Badin C, Bagwell B, Bahlmann-Kroll E, Bahtar AZ, Baigent C, Bains D, Bajaj H, Baker R, Baldini E, Banas B, Banerjee D, Banno S, Bansal S, Barberi S, Barnes S, Barnini C, Barot C, Barrett K, Barrios R, Bartolomei Mecatti B, Barton I, Barton J, Basily W, Bavanandan S, Baxter A, Becker L, Beddhu S, Beige J, Beigh S, Bell S, Benck U, Beneat A, Bennett A, Bennett D, Benyon S, Berdeprado J, Bergler T, Bergner A, Berry M, Bevilacqua M, Bhairoo J, Bhandari S, Bhandary N, Bhatt A, Bhattarai M, Bhavsar M, Bian W, Bianchini F, Bianco S, Bilous R, Bilton J, Bilucaglia D, Bird C, Birudaraju D, Biscoveanu M, Blake C, Bleakley N, Bocchicchia K, Bodine S, Bodington R, Boedecker S, Bolduc M, Bolton S, Bond C, Boreky F, Boren K, Bouchi R, Bough L, Bovan D, Bowler C, Bowman L, Brar N, Braun C, Breach A, Breitenfeldt M, Brenner S, Brettschneider B, Brewer A, Brewer G, Brindle V, Brioni E, Brown C, Brown H, Brown L, Brown R, Brown S, Browne D, Bruce K, Brueckmann M, Brunskill N, Bryant M, Brzoska M, Bu Y, Buckman C, Budoff M, Bullen M, Burke A, Burnette S, Burston C, Busch M, Bushnell J, Butler S, Büttner C, Byrne C, Caamano A, Cadorna J, Cafiero C, Cagle M, Cai J, Calabrese K, Calvi C, Camilleri B, Camp S, Campbell D, Campbell R, Cao H, Capelli I, Caple M, Caplin B, Cardone A, Carle J, Carnall V, Caroppo M, Carr S, Carraro G, Carson M, Casares P, Castillo C, Castro C, Caudill B, Cejka V, Ceseri M, Cham L, Chamberlain A, Chambers J, Chan CBT, Chan JYM, Chan YC, Chang E, Chang E, Chant T, Chavagnon T, Chellamuthu P, Chen F, Chen J, Chen P, Chen TM, Chen Y, Chen Y, Cheng C, Cheng H, Cheng MC, Cherney D, Cheung AK, Ching CH, Chitalia N, Choksi R, Chukwu C, Chung K, Cianciolo G, Cipressa L, Clark S, Clarke H, Clarke R, Clarke S, Cleveland B, Cole E, Coles H, Condurache L, Connor A, Convery K, Cooper A, Cooper N, Cooper Z, Cooperman L, Cosgrove L, Coutts P, Cowley A, Craik R, Cui G, Cummins T, Dahl N, Dai H, Dajani L, D'Amelio A, Damian E, Damianik K, Danel L, Daniels C, Daniels T, Darbeau S, Darius H, Dasgupta T, Davies J, Davies L, Davis A, Davis J, Davis L, Dayanandan R, Dayi S, Dayrell R, De Nicola L, Debnath S, Deeb W, Degenhardt S, DeGoursey K, Delaney M, Deo R, DeRaad R, Derebail V, Dev D, Devaux M, Dhall P, Dhillon G, Dienes J, Dobre M, Doctolero E, Dodds V, Domingo D, Donaldson D, Donaldson P, Donhauser C, Donley V, Dorestin S, Dorey S, Doulton T, Draganova D, Draxlbauer K, Driver F, Du H, Dube F, Duck T, Dugal T, Dugas J, Dukka H, Dumann H, Durham W, Dursch M, Dykas R, Easow R, Eckrich E, Eden G, Edmerson E, Edwards H, Ee LW, Eguchi J, Ehrl Y, Eichstadt K, Eid W, Eilerman B, Ejima Y, Eldon H, Ellam T, Elliott L, Ellison R, Emberson J, Epp R, Er A, Espino-Obrero M, Estcourt S, Estienne L, Evans G, Evans J, Evans S, Fabbri G, Fajardo-Moser M, Falcone C, Fani F, Faria-Shayler P, Farnia F, Farrugia D, Fechter M, Fellowes D, Feng F, Fernandez J, Ferraro P, Field A, Fikry S, Finch J, Finn H, Fioretto P, Fish R, Fleischer A, Fleming-Brown D, Fletcher L, Flora R, Foellinger C, Foligno N, Forest S, Forghani Z, Forsyth K, Fottrell-Gould D, Fox P, Frankel A, Fraser D, Frazier R, Frederick K, Freking N, French H, Froment A, Fuchs B, Fuessl L, Fujii H, Fujimoto A, Fujita A, Fujita K, Fujita Y, Fukagawa M, Fukao Y, Fukasawa A, Fuller T, Funayama T, Fung E, Furukawa M, Furukawa Y, Furusho M, Gabel S, Gaidu J, Gaiser S, Gallo K, Galloway C, Gambaro G, Gan CC, Gangemi C, Gao M, Garcia K, Garcia M, Garofalo C, Garrity M, Garza A, Gasko S, Gavrila M, Gebeyehu B, Geddes A, Gentile G, George A, George J, Gesualdo L, Ghalli F, Ghanem A, Ghate T, Ghavampour S, Ghazi A, Gherman A, Giebeln-Hudnell U, Gill B, Gillham S, Girakossyan I, Girndt M, Giuffrida A, Glenwright M, Glider T, Gloria R, Glowski D, Goh BL, Goh CB, Gohda T, Goldenberg R, Goldfaden R, Goldsmith C, Golson B, Gonce V, Gong Q, Goodenough B, Goodwin N, Goonasekera M, Gordon A, Gordon J, Gore A, Goto H, Goto S, Goto S, Gowen D, Grace A, Graham J, Grandaliano G, Gray M, Green JB, Greene T, Greenwood G, Grewal B, Grifa R, Griffin D, Griffin S, Grimmer P, Grobovaite E, Grotjahn S, Guerini A, Guest C, Gunda S, Guo B, Guo Q, Haack S, Haase M, Haaser K, Habuki K, Hadley A, Hagan S, Hagge S, Haller H, Ham S, Hamal S, Hamamoto Y, Hamano N, Hamm M, Hanburry A, Haneda M, Hanf C, Hanif W, Hansen J, Hanson L, Hantel S, Haraguchi T, Harding E, Harding T, Hardy C, Hartner C, Harun Z, Harvill L, Hasan A, Hase H, Hasegawa F, Hasegawa T, Hashimoto A, Hashimoto C, Hashimoto M, Hashimoto S, Haskett S, Hauske SJ, Hawfield A, Hayami T, Hayashi M, Hayashi S, Haynes R, Hazara A, Healy C, Hecktman J, Heine G, Henderson H, Henschel R, Hepditch A, Herfurth K, Hernandez G, Hernandez Pena A, Hernandez-Cassis C, Herrington WG, Herzog C, Hewins S, Hewitt D, Hichkad L, Higashi S, Higuchi C, Hill C, Hill L, Hill M, Himeno T, Hing A, Hirakawa Y, Hirata K, Hirota Y, Hisatake T, Hitchcock S, Hodakowski A, Hodge W, Hogan R, Hohenstatt U, Hohenstein B, Hooi L, Hope S, Hopley M, Horikawa S, Hosein D, Hosooka T, Hou L, Hou W, Howie L, Howson A, Hozak M, Htet Z, Hu X, Hu Y, Huang J, Huda N, Hudig L, Hudson A, Hugo C, Hull R, Hume L, Hundei W, Hunt N, Hunter A, Hurley S, Hurst A, Hutchinson C, Hyo T, Ibrahim FH, Ibrahim S, Ihana N, Ikeda T, Imai A, Imamine R, Inamori A, Inazawa H, Ingell J, Inomata K, Inukai Y, Ioka M, Irtiza-Ali A, Isakova T, Isari W, Iselt M, Ishiguro A, Ishihara K, Ishikawa T, Ishimoto T, Ishizuka K, Ismail R, Itano S, Ito H, Ito K, Ito M, Ito Y, Iwagaitsu S, Iwaita Y, Iwakura T, Iwamoto M, Iwasa M, Iwasaki H, Iwasaki S, Izumi K, Izumi K, Izumi T, Jaafar SM, Jackson C, Jackson Y, Jafari G, Jahangiriesmaili M, Jain N, Jansson K, Jasim H, Jeffers L, Jenkins A, Jesky M, Jesus-Silva J, Jeyarajah D, Jiang Y, Jiao X, Jimenez G, Jin B, Jin Q, Jochims J, Johns B, Johnson C, Johnson T, Jolly S, Jones L, Jones L, Jones S, Jones T, Jones V, Joseph M, Joshi S, Judge P, Junejo N, Junus S, Kachele M, Kadowaki T, Kadoya H, Kaga H, Kai H, Kajio H, Kaluza-Schilling W, Kamaruzaman L, Kamarzarian A, Kamimura Y, Kamiya H, Kamundi C, Kan T, Kanaguchi Y, Kanazawa A, Kanda E, Kanegae S, Kaneko K, Kaneko K, Kang HY, Kano T, Karim M, Karounos D, Karsan W, Kasagi R, Kashihara N, Katagiri H, Katanosaka A, Katayama A, Katayama M, Katiman E, Kato K, Kato M, Kato N, Kato S, Kato T, Kato Y, Katsuda Y, Katsuno T, Kaufeld J, Kavak Y, Kawai I, Kawai M, Kawai M, Kawase A, Kawashima S, Kazory A, Kearney J, Keith B, Kellett J, Kelley S, Kershaw M, Ketteler M, Khai Q, Khairullah Q, Khandwala H, Khoo KKL, Khwaja A, Kidokoro K, Kielstein J, Kihara M, Kimber C, Kimura S, Kinashi H, Kingston H, Kinomura M, Kinsella-Perks E, Kitagawa M, Kitajima M, Kitamura S, Kiyosue A, Kiyota M, Klauser F, Klausmann G, Kmietschak W, Knapp K, Knight C, Knoppe A, Knott C, Kobayashi M, Kobayashi R, Kobayashi T, Koch M, Kodama S, Kodani N, Kogure E, Koizumi M, Kojima H, Kojo T, Kolhe N, Komaba H, Komiya T, Komori H, Kon SP, Kondo M, Kondo M, Kong W, Konishi M, Kono K, Koshino M, Kosugi T, Kothapalli B, Kozlowski T, Kraemer B, Kraemer-Guth A, Krappe J, Kraus D, Kriatselis C, Krieger C, Krish P, Kruger B, Ku Md Razi KR, Kuan Y, Kubota S, Kuhn S, Kumar P, Kume S, Kummer I, Kumuji R, Küpper A, Kuramae T, Kurian L, Kuribayashi C, Kurien R, Kuroda E, Kurose T, Kutschat A, Kuwabara N, Kuwata H, La Manna G, Lacey M, Lafferty K, LaFleur P, Lai V, Laity E, Lambert A, Landray MJ, Langlois M, Latif F, Latore E, Laundy E, Laurienti D, Lawson A, Lay M, Leal I, Leal I, Lee AK, Lee J, Lee KQ, Lee R, Lee SA, Lee YY, Lee-Barkey Y, Leonard N, Leoncini G, Leong CM, Lerario S, Leslie A, Levin A, Lewington A, Li J, Li N, Li X, Li Y, Liberti L, Liberti ME, Liew A, Liew YF, Lilavivat U, Lim SK, Lim YS, Limon E, Lin H, Lioudaki E, Liu H, Liu J, Liu L, Liu Q, Liu WJ, Liu X, Liu Z, Loader D, Lochhead H, Loh CL, Lorimer A, Loudermilk L, Loutan J, Low CK, Low CL, Low YM, Lozon Z, Lu Y, Lucci D, Ludwig U, Luker N, Lund D, Lustig R, Lyle S, Macdonald C, MacDougall I, Machicado R, MacLean D, Macleod P, Madera A, Madore F, Maeda K, Maegawa H, Maeno S, Mafham M, Magee J, Maggioni AP, Mah DY, Mahabadi V, Maiguma M, Makita Y, Makos G, Manco L, Mangiacapra R, Manley J, Mann P, Mano S, Marcotte G, Maris J, Mark P, Markau S, Markovic M, Marshall C, Martin M, Martinez C, Martinez S, Martins G, Maruyama K, Maruyama S, Marx K, Maselli A, Masengu A, Maskill A, Masumoto S, Masutani K, Matsumoto M, Matsunaga T, Matsuoka N, Matsushita M, Matthews M, Matthias S, Matvienko E, Maurer M, Maxwell P, Mayne KJ, Mazlan N, Mazlan SA, Mbuyisa A, McCafferty K, McCarroll F, McCarthy T, McClary-Wright C, McCray K, McDermott P, McDonald C, McDougall R, McHaffie E, McIntosh K, McKinley T, McLaughlin S, McLean N, McNeil L, Measor A, Meek J, Mehta A, Mehta R, Melandri M, Mené P, Meng T, Menne J, Merritt K, Merscher S, Meshykhi C, Messa P, Messinger L, Miftari N, Miller R, Miller Y, Miller-Hodges E, Minatoguchi M, Miners M, Minutolo R, Mita T, Miura Y, Miyaji M, Miyamoto S, Miyatsuka T, Miyazaki M, Miyazawa I, Mizumachi R, Mizuno M, Moffat S, Mohamad Nor FS, Mohamad Zaini SN, Mohamed Affandi FA, Mohandas C, Mohd R, Mohd Fauzi NA, Mohd Sharif NH, Mohd Yusoff Y, Moist L, Moncada A, Montasser M, Moon A, Moran C, Morgan N, Moriarty J, Morig G, Morinaga H, Morino K, Morisaki T, Morishita Y, Morlok S, Morris A, Morris F, Mostafa S, Mostefai Y, Motegi M, Motherwell N, Motta D, Mottl A, Moys R, Mozaffari S, Muir J, Mulhern J, Mulligan S, Munakata Y, Murakami C, Murakoshi M, Murawska A, Murphy K, Murphy L, Murray S, Murtagh H, Musa MA, Mushahar L, Mustafa R, Mustafar R, Muto M, Nadar E, Nagano R, Nagasawa T, Nagashima E, Nagasu H, Nagelberg S, Nair H, Nakagawa Y, Nakahara M, Nakamura J, Nakamura R, Nakamura T, Nakaoka M, Nakashima E, Nakata J, Nakata M, Nakatani S, Nakatsuka A, Nakayama Y, Nakhoul G, Nangaku M, Naverrete G, Navivala A, Nazeer I, Negrea L, Nethaji C, Newman E, Ng SYA, Ng TJ, Ngu LLS, Nimbkar T, Nishi H, Nishi M, Nishi S, Nishida Y, Nishiyama A, Niu J, Niu P, Nobili G, Nohara N, Nojima I, Nolan J, Nosseir H, Nozawa M, Nunn M, Nunokawa S, Oda M, Oe M, Oe Y, Ogane K, Ogawa W, Ogihara T, Oguchi G, Ohsugi M, Oishi K, Okada Y, Okajyo J, Okamoto S, Okamura K, Olufuwa O, Oluyombo R, Omata A, Omori Y, Ong LM, Ong YC, Onyema J, Oomatia A, Oommen A, Oremus R, Orimo Y, Ortalda V, Osaki Y, Osawa Y, Osmond Foster J, O'Sullivan A, Otani T, Othman N, Otomo S, O'Toole J, Owen L, Ozawa T, Padiyar A, Page N, Pajak S, Paliege A, Pandey A, Pandey R, Pariani H, Park J, Parrigon M, Passauer J, Patecki M, Patel M, Patel R, Patel T, Patel Z, Paul R, Paul R, Paulsen L, Pavone L, Peixoto A, Peji J, Peng BC, Peng K, Pennino L, Pereira E, Perez E, Pergola P, Pesce F, 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Effects of empagliflozin on progression of chronic kidney disease: a prespecified secondary analysis from the empa-kidney trial. Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol 2024; 12:39-50. [PMID: 38061371 PMCID: PMC7615591 DOI: 10.1016/s2213-8587(23)00321-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/05/2023] [Revised: 10/24/2023] [Accepted: 10/25/2023] [Indexed: 12/23/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors reduce progression of chronic kidney disease and the risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in a wide range of patients. However, their effects on kidney disease progression in some patients with chronic kidney disease are unclear because few clinical kidney outcomes occurred among such patients in the completed trials. In particular, some guidelines stratify their level of recommendation about who should be treated with SGLT2 inhibitors based on diabetes status and albuminuria. We aimed to assess the effects of empagliflozin on progression of chronic kidney disease both overall and among specific types of participants in the EMPA-KIDNEY trial. METHODS EMPA-KIDNEY, a randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial, was conducted at 241 centres in eight countries (Canada, China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, the UK, and the USA), and included individuals aged 18 years or older with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 20 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or with an eGFR of 45 to less than 90 mL/min per 1·73 m2 with a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (uACR) of 200 mg/g or higher. We explored the effects of 10 mg oral empagliflozin once daily versus placebo on the annualised rate of change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR slope), a tertiary outcome. We studied the acute slope (from randomisation to 2 months) and chronic slope (from 2 months onwards) separately, using shared parameter models to estimate the latter. Analyses were done in all randomly assigned participants by intention to treat. EMPA-KIDNEY is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03594110. FINDINGS Between May 15, 2019, and April 16, 2021, 6609 participants were randomly assigned and then followed up for a median of 2·0 years (IQR 1·5-2·4). Prespecified subgroups of eGFR included 2282 (34·5%) participants with an eGFR of less than 30 mL/min per 1·73 m2, 2928 (44·3%) with an eGFR of 30 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, and 1399 (21·2%) with an eGFR 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2 or higher. Prespecified subgroups of uACR included 1328 (20·1%) with a uACR of less than 30 mg/g, 1864 (28·2%) with a uACR of 30 to 300 mg/g, and 3417 (51·7%) with a uACR of more than 300 mg/g. Overall, allocation to empagliflozin caused an acute 2·12 mL/min per 1·73 m2 (95% CI 1·83-2·41) reduction in eGFR, equivalent to a 6% (5-6) dip in the first 2 months. After this, it halved the chronic slope from -2·75 to -1·37 mL/min per 1·73 m2 per year (relative difference 50%, 95% CI 42-58). The absolute and relative benefits of empagliflozin on the magnitude of the chronic slope varied significantly depending on diabetes status and baseline levels of eGFR and uACR. In particular, the absolute difference in chronic slopes was lower in patients with lower baseline uACR, but because this group progressed more slowly than those with higher uACR, this translated to a larger relative difference in chronic slopes in this group (86% [36-136] reduction in the chronic slope among those with baseline uACR <30 mg/g compared with a 29% [19-38] reduction for those with baseline uACR ≥2000 mg/g; ptrend<0·0001). INTERPRETATION Empagliflozin slowed the rate of progression of chronic kidney disease among all types of participant in the EMPA-KIDNEY trial, including those with little albuminuria. Albuminuria alone should not be used to determine whether to treat with an SGLT2 inhibitor. FUNDING Boehringer Ingelheim and Eli Lilly.
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Jansson K, Jasim H, Jeffers L, Jenkins A, Jesky M, Jesus-Silva J, Jeyarajah D, Jiang Y, Jiao X, Jimenez G, Jin B, Jin Q, Jochims J, Johns B, Johnson C, Johnson T, Jolly S, Jones L, Jones L, Jones S, Jones T, Jones V, Joseph M, Joshi S, Judge P, Junejo N, Junus S, Kachele M, Kadowaki T, Kadoya H, Kaga H, Kai H, Kajio H, Kaluza-Schilling W, Kamaruzaman L, Kamarzarian A, Kamimura Y, Kamiya H, Kamundi C, Kan T, Kanaguchi Y, Kanazawa A, Kanda E, Kanegae S, Kaneko K, Kaneko K, Kang HY, Kano T, Karim M, Karounos D, Karsan W, Kasagi R, Kashihara N, Katagiri H, Katanosaka A, Katayama A, Katayama M, Katiman E, Kato K, Kato M, Kato N, Kato S, Kato T, Kato Y, Katsuda Y, Katsuno T, Kaufeld J, Kavak Y, Kawai I, Kawai M, Kawai M, Kawase A, Kawashima S, Kazory A, Kearney J, Keith B, Kellett J, Kelley S, Kershaw M, Ketteler M, Khai Q, Khairullah Q, Khandwala H, Khoo KKL, Khwaja A, Kidokoro K, Kielstein J, Kihara M, Kimber C, Kimura S, Kinashi H, Kingston H, Kinomura M, Kinsella-Perks E, Kitagawa M, Kitajima M, Kitamura S, Kiyosue A, Kiyota M, Klauser F, Klausmann G, Kmietschak W, Knapp K, Knight C, Knoppe A, Knott C, Kobayashi M, Kobayashi R, Kobayashi T, Koch M, Kodama S, Kodani N, Kogure E, Koizumi M, Kojima H, Kojo T, Kolhe N, Komaba H, Komiya T, Komori H, Kon SP, Kondo M, Kondo M, Kong W, Konishi M, Kono K, Koshino M, Kosugi T, Kothapalli B, Kozlowski T, Kraemer B, Kraemer-Guth A, Krappe J, Kraus D, Kriatselis C, Krieger C, Krish P, Kruger B, Ku Md Razi KR, Kuan Y, Kubota S, Kuhn S, Kumar P, Kume S, Kummer I, Kumuji R, Küpper A, Kuramae T, Kurian L, Kuribayashi C, Kurien R, Kuroda E, Kurose T, Kutschat A, Kuwabara N, Kuwata H, La Manna G, Lacey M, Lafferty K, LaFleur P, Lai V, Laity E, Lambert A, Landray MJ, Langlois M, Latif F, Latore E, Laundy E, Laurienti D, Lawson A, Lay M, Leal I, Leal I, Lee AK, Lee J, Lee KQ, Lee R, Lee SA, Lee YY, Lee-Barkey Y, Leonard N, Leoncini G, Leong CM, Lerario S, Leslie A, Levin A, Lewington A, Li J, Li N, Li X, Li Y, Liberti L, Liberti ME, Liew A, Liew YF, Lilavivat U, Lim SK, Lim YS, Limon E, Lin H, Lioudaki E, Liu H, Liu J, Liu L, Liu Q, Liu WJ, Liu X, Liu Z, Loader D, Lochhead H, Loh CL, Lorimer A, Loudermilk L, Loutan J, Low CK, Low CL, Low YM, Lozon Z, Lu Y, Lucci D, Ludwig U, Luker N, Lund D, Lustig R, Lyle S, Macdonald C, MacDougall I, Machicado R, MacLean D, Macleod P, Madera A, Madore F, Maeda K, Maegawa H, Maeno S, Mafham M, Magee J, Maggioni AP, Mah DY, Mahabadi V, Maiguma M, Makita Y, Makos G, Manco L, Mangiacapra R, Manley J, Mann P, Mano S, Marcotte G, Maris J, Mark P, Markau S, Markovic M, Marshall C, Martin M, Martinez C, Martinez S, Martins G, Maruyama K, Maruyama S, Marx K, Maselli A, Masengu A, Maskill A, Masumoto S, Masutani K, Matsumoto M, Matsunaga T, Matsuoka N, Matsushita M, Matthews M, Matthias S, Matvienko E, Maurer M, Maxwell P, Mayne KJ, Mazlan N, Mazlan SA, Mbuyisa A, McCafferty K, McCarroll F, McCarthy T, McClary-Wright C, McCray K, McDermott P, McDonald C, McDougall R, McHaffie E, McIntosh K, McKinley T, McLaughlin S, McLean N, McNeil L, Measor A, Meek J, Mehta A, Mehta R, Melandri M, Mené P, Meng T, Menne J, Merritt K, Merscher S, Meshykhi C, Messa P, Messinger L, Miftari N, Miller R, Miller Y, Miller-Hodges E, Minatoguchi M, Miners M, Minutolo R, Mita T, Miura Y, Miyaji M, Miyamoto S, Miyatsuka T, Miyazaki M, Miyazawa I, Mizumachi R, Mizuno M, Moffat S, Mohamad Nor FS, Mohamad Zaini SN, Mohamed Affandi FA, Mohandas C, Mohd R, Mohd Fauzi NA, Mohd Sharif NH, Mohd Yusoff Y, Moist L, Moncada A, Montasser M, Moon A, Moran C, Morgan N, Moriarty J, Morig G, Morinaga H, Morino K, Morisaki T, Morishita Y, Morlok S, Morris A, Morris F, Mostafa S, Mostefai Y, Motegi M, Motherwell N, Motta D, Mottl A, Moys R, Mozaffari S, Muir J, Mulhern J, Mulligan S, Munakata Y, Murakami C, Murakoshi M, Murawska A, Murphy K, Murphy L, Murray S, Murtagh H, Musa MA, Mushahar L, Mustafa R, Mustafar R, Muto M, Nadar E, Nagano R, Nagasawa T, Nagashima E, Nagasu H, Nagelberg S, Nair H, Nakagawa Y, Nakahara M, Nakamura J, Nakamura R, Nakamura T, Nakaoka M, Nakashima E, Nakata J, Nakata M, Nakatani S, Nakatsuka A, Nakayama Y, Nakhoul G, Nangaku M, Naverrete G, Navivala A, Nazeer I, Negrea L, Nethaji C, Newman E, Ng SYA, Ng TJ, Ngu LLS, Nimbkar T, Nishi H, Nishi M, Nishi S, Nishida Y, Nishiyama A, Niu J, Niu P, Nobili G, Nohara N, Nojima I, Nolan J, Nosseir H, Nozawa M, Nunn M, Nunokawa S, Oda M, Oe M, Oe Y, Ogane K, Ogawa W, Ogihara T, Oguchi G, Ohsugi M, Oishi K, Okada Y, Okajyo J, Okamoto S, Okamura K, Olufuwa O, Oluyombo R, Omata A, Omori Y, Ong LM, Ong YC, Onyema J, Oomatia A, Oommen A, Oremus R, Orimo Y, Ortalda V, Osaki Y, Osawa Y, Osmond Foster J, O'Sullivan A, Otani T, Othman N, Otomo S, O'Toole J, Owen L, Ozawa T, Padiyar A, Page N, Pajak S, Paliege A, Pandey A, Pandey R, Pariani H, Park J, Parrigon M, Passauer J, Patecki M, Patel M, Patel R, Patel T, Patel Z, Paul R, Paul R, Paulsen L, Pavone L, Peixoto A, Peji J, Peng BC, Peng K, Pennino L, Pereira E, Perez E, Pergola P, Pesce F, Pessolano G, Petchey W, Petr EJ, Pfab T, Phelan P, Phillips R, Phillips T, Phipps M, Piccinni G, Pickett T, Pickworth S, Piemontese M, Pinto D, Piper J, Plummer-Morgan J, Poehler D, Polese L, Poma V, Pontremoli R, Postal A, Pötz C, Power A, Pradhan N, Pradhan R, Preiss D, Preiss E, Preston K, Prib N, Price L, Provenzano C, Pugay C, Pulido R, Putz F, Qiao Y, Quartagno R, Quashie-Akponeware M, Rabara R, Rabasa-Lhoret R, Radhakrishnan D, Radley M, Raff R, Raguwaran S, Rahbari-Oskoui F, Rahman M, Rahmat K, Ramadoss S, Ramanaidu S, Ramasamy S, Ramli R, Ramli S, Ramsey T, Rankin A, Rashidi A, Raymond L, Razali WAFA, Read K, Reiner H, Reisler A, Reith C, Renner J, Rettenmaier B, Richmond L, Rijos D, Rivera R, Rivers V, Robinson H, Rocco M, Rodriguez-Bachiller I, Rodriquez R, Roesch C, Roesch J, Rogers J, Rohnstock M, Rolfsmeier S, Roman M, Romo A, Rosati A, Rosenberg S, Ross T, Rossello X, Roura M, Roussel M, Rovner S, Roy S, Rucker S, Rump L, Ruocco M, Ruse S, Russo F, Russo M, Ryder M, Sabarai A, Saccà C, Sachson R, Sadler E, Safiee NS, Sahani M, Saillant A, Saini J, Saito C, Saito S, Sakaguchi K, Sakai M, Salim H, Salviani C, Sammons E, Sampson A, Samson F, Sandercock P, Sanguila S, Santorelli G, Santoro D, Sarabu N, Saram T, Sardell R, Sasajima H, Sasaki T, Satko S, Sato A, Sato D, Sato H, Sato H, Sato J, Sato T, Sato Y, Satoh M, Sawada K, Schanz M, Scheidemantel F, Schemmelmann M, Schettler E, Schettler V, Schlieper GR, Schmidt C, Schmidt G, Schmidt U, Schmidt-Gurtler H, Schmude M, Schneider A, Schneider I, Schneider-Danwitz C, Schomig M, Schramm T, Schreiber A, Schricker S, Schroppel B, Schulte-Kemna L, Schulz E, Schumacher B, Schuster A, Schwab A, Scolari F, Scott A, Seeger W, Seeger W, Segal M, Seifert L, Seifert M, Sekiya M, Sellars R, Seman MR, Shah S, Shah S, Shainberg L, Shanmuganathan M, Shao F, Sharma K, Sharpe C, Sheikh-Ali M, Sheldon J, Shenton C, Shepherd A, Shepperd M, Sheridan R, Sheriff Z, Shibata Y, Shigehara T, Shikata K, Shimamura K, Shimano H, Shimizu Y, Shimoda H, Shin K, Shivashankar G, Shojima N, Silva R, Sim CSB, Simmons K, Sinha S, Sitter T, Sivanandam S, Skipper M, Sloan K, Sloan L, Smith R, Smyth J, Sobande T, Sobata M, Somalanka S, Song X, Sonntag F, Sood B, Sor SY, Soufer J, Sparks H, Spatoliatore G, Spinola T, Squyres S, Srivastava A, Stanfield J, Staplin N, Staylor K, Steele A, Steen O, Steffl D, Stegbauer J, Stellbrink C, Stellbrink E, Stevens W, Stevenson A, Stewart-Ray V, Stickley J, Stoffler D, Stratmann B, Streitenberger S, Strutz F, Stubbs J, Stumpf J, Suazo N, Suchinda P, Suckling R, Sudin A, Sugamori K, Sugawara H, Sugawara K, Sugimoto D, Sugiyama H, Sugiyama H, Sugiyama T, Sullivan M, Sumi M, Suresh N, Sutton D, Suzuki H, Suzuki R, Suzuki Y, Suzuki Y, Suzuki Y, Swanson E, Swift P, Syed S, Szerlip H, Taal M, Taddeo M, Tailor C, Tajima K, Takagi M, Takahashi K, Takahashi K, Takahashi M, Takahashi T, Takahira E, Takai T, Takaoka M, Takeoka J, Takesada A, Takezawa M, Talbot M, Taliercio J, Talsania T, Tamori Y, Tamura R, Tamura Y, Tan CHH, Tan EZZ, Tanabe A, Tanabe K, Tanaka A, Tanaka A, Tanaka N, Tang S, Tang Z, Tanigaki K, Tarlac M, Tatsuzawa A, Tay JF, Tay LL, Taylor J, Taylor K, Taylor K, Te A, Tenbusch L, Teng KS, Terakawa A, Terry J, Tham ZD, Tholl S, Thomas G, Thong KM, Tietjen D, Timadjer A, Tindall H, Tipper S, Tobin K, Toda N, Tokuyama A, Tolibas M, Tomita A, Tomita T, Tomlinson J, Tonks L, Topf J, Topping S, Torp A, Torres A, Totaro F, Toth P, Toyonaga Y, Tripodi F, Trivedi K, Tropman E, Tschope D, Tse J, Tsuji K, Tsunekawa S, Tsunoda R, Tucky B, Tufail S, Tuffaha A, Turan E, Turner H, Turner J, Turner M, Tuttle KR, Tye YL, Tyler A, Tyler J, Uchi H, Uchida H, Uchida T, Uchida T, Udagawa T, Ueda S, Ueda Y, Ueki K, Ugni S, Ugwu E, Umeno R, Unekawa C, Uozumi K, Urquia K, Valleteau A, Valletta C, van Erp R, Vanhoy C, Varad V, Varma R, Varughese A, Vasquez P, Vasseur A, Veelken R, Velagapudi C, Verdel K, Vettoretti S, Vezzoli G, Vielhauer V, Viera R, Vilar E, Villaruel S, Vinall L, Vinathan J, Visnjic M, Voigt E, von-Eynatten M, Vourvou M, Wada J, Wada J, Wada T, Wada Y, Wakayama K, Wakita Y, Wallendszus K, Walters T, Wan Mohamad WH, Wang L, Wang W, Wang X, Wang X, Wang Y, Wanner C, Wanninayake S, Watada H, Watanabe K, Watanabe K, Watanabe M, Waterfall H, Watkins D, Watson S, Weaving L, Weber B, Webley Y, Webster A, Webster M, Weetman M, Wei W, Weihprecht H, Weiland L, Weinmann-Menke J, Weinreich T, Wendt R, Weng Y, Whalen M, Whalley G, Wheatley R, Wheeler A, Wheeler J, Whelton P, White K, Whitmore B, Whittaker S, Wiebel J, Wiley J, Wilkinson L, Willett M, Williams A, Williams E, Williams K, Williams T, Wilson A, Wilson P, Wincott L, Wines E, Winkelmann B, Winkler M, Winter-Goodwin B, Witczak J, Wittes J, Wittmann M, Wolf G, Wolf L, Wolfling R, Wong C, Wong E, Wong HS, Wong LW, Wong YH, Wonnacott A, Wood A, Wood L, Woodhouse H, Wooding N, Woodman A, Wren K, Wu J, Wu P, Xia S, Xiao H, Xiao X, Xie Y, Xu C, Xu Y, Xue H, Yahaya H, Yalamanchili H, Yamada A, Yamada N, Yamagata K, Yamaguchi M, Yamaji Y, Yamamoto A, Yamamoto S, Yamamoto S, Yamamoto T, Yamanaka A, Yamano T, Yamanouchi Y, Yamasaki N, Yamasaki Y, Yamasaki Y, Yamashita C, Yamauchi T, Yan Q, Yanagisawa E, Yang F, Yang L, Yano S, Yao S, Yao Y, Yarlagadda S, Yasuda Y, Yiu V, Yokoyama T, Yoshida S, Yoshidome E, Yoshikawa H, Young A, Young T, Yousif V, Yu H, Yu Y, Yuasa K, Yusof N, Zalunardo N, Zander B, Zani R, Zappulo F, Zayed M, Zemann B, Zettergren P, Zhang H, Zhang L, Zhang L, Zhang N, Zhang X, Zhao J, Zhao L, Zhao S, Zhao Z, Zhong H, Zhou N, Zhou S, Zhu D, Zhu L, Zhu S, Zietz M, Zippo M, Zirino F, Zulkipli FH. Impact of primary kidney disease on the effects of empagliflozin in patients with chronic kidney disease: secondary analyses of the EMPA-KIDNEY trial. Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol 2024; 12:51-60. [PMID: 38061372 DOI: 10.1016/s2213-8587(23)00322-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/05/2023] [Revised: 10/24/2023] [Accepted: 10/25/2023] [Indexed: 12/23/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The EMPA-KIDNEY trial showed that empagliflozin reduced the risk of the primary composite outcome of kidney disease progression or cardiovascular death in patients with chronic kidney disease mainly through slowing progression. We aimed to assess how effects of empagliflozin might differ by primary kidney disease across its broad population. METHODS EMPA-KIDNEY, a randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial, was conducted at 241 centres in eight countries (Canada, China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, the UK, and the USA). Patients were eligible if their estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was 20 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or 45 to less than 90 mL/min per 1·73 m2 with a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (uACR) of 200 mg/g or higher at screening. They were randomly assigned (1:1) to 10 mg oral empagliflozin once daily or matching placebo. Effects on kidney disease progression (defined as a sustained ≥40% eGFR decline from randomisation, end-stage kidney disease, a sustained eGFR below 10 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or death from kidney failure) were assessed using prespecified Cox models, and eGFR slope analyses used shared parameter models. Subgroup comparisons were performed by including relevant interaction terms in models. EMPA-KIDNEY is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03594110. FINDINGS Between May 15, 2019, and April 16, 2021, 6609 participants were randomly assigned and followed up for a median of 2·0 years (IQR 1·5-2·4). Prespecified subgroupings by primary kidney disease included 2057 (31·1%) participants with diabetic kidney disease, 1669 (25·3%) with glomerular disease, 1445 (21·9%) with hypertensive or renovascular disease, and 1438 (21·8%) with other or unknown causes. Kidney disease progression occurred in 384 (11·6%) of 3304 patients in the empagliflozin group and 504 (15·2%) of 3305 patients in the placebo group (hazard ratio 0·71 [95% CI 0·62-0·81]), with no evidence that the relative effect size varied significantly by primary kidney disease (pheterogeneity=0·62). The between-group difference in chronic eGFR slopes (ie, from 2 months to final follow-up) was 1·37 mL/min per 1·73 m2 per year (95% CI 1·16-1·59), representing a 50% (42-58) reduction in the rate of chronic eGFR decline. This relative effect of empagliflozin on chronic eGFR slope was similar in analyses by different primary kidney diseases, including in explorations by type of glomerular disease and diabetes (p values for heterogeneity all >0·1). INTERPRETATION In a broad range of patients with chronic kidney disease at risk of progression, including a wide range of non-diabetic causes of chronic kidney disease, empagliflozin reduced risk of kidney disease progression. Relative effect sizes were broadly similar irrespective of the cause of primary kidney disease, suggesting that SGLT2 inhibitors should be part of a standard of care to minimise risk of kidney failure in chronic kidney disease. FUNDING Boehringer Ingelheim, Eli Lilly, and UK Medical Research Council.
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Howerton E, Contamin L, Mullany LC, Qin M, Reich NG, Bents S, Borchering RK, Jung SM, Loo SL, Smith CP, Levander J, Kerr J, Espino J, van Panhuis WG, Hochheiser H, Galanti M, Yamana T, Pei S, Shaman J, Rainwater-Lovett K, Kinsey M, Tallaksen K, Wilson S, Shin L, Lemaitre JC, Kaminsky J, Hulse JD, Lee EC, McKee CD, Hill A, Karlen D, Chinazzi M, Davis JT, Mu K, Xiong X, Pastore Y Piontti A, Vespignani A, Rosenstrom ET, Ivy JS, Mayorga ME, Swann JL, España G, Cavany S, Moore S, Perkins A, Hladish T, Pillai A, Ben Toh K, Longini I, Chen S, Paul R, Janies D, Thill JC, Bouchnita A, Bi K, Lachmann M, Fox SJ, Meyers LA, Srivastava A, Porebski P, Venkatramanan S, Adiga A, Lewis B, Klahn B, Outten J, Hurt B, Chen J, Mortveit H, Wilson A, Marathe M, Hoops S, Bhattacharya P, Machi D, Cadwell BL, Healy JM, Slayton RB, Johansson MA, Biggerstaff M, Truelove S, Runge MC, Shea K, Viboud C, Lessler J. Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty. Nat Commun 2023; 14:7260. [PMID: 37985664 PMCID: PMC10661184 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-42680-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/07/2023] [Accepted: 10/17/2023] [Indexed: 11/22/2023] Open
Abstract
Our ability to forecast epidemics far into the future is constrained by the many complexities of disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well-defined scenarios that specify the future state of critical epidemic drivers. Since December 2020, the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) has convened multiple modeling teams to make months ahead projections of SARS-CoV-2 burden, totaling nearly 1.8 million national and state-level projections. Here, we find SMH performance varied widely as a function of both scenario validity and model calibration. We show scenarios remained close to reality for 22 weeks on average before the arrival of unanticipated SARS-CoV-2 variants invalidated key assumptions. An ensemble of participating models that preserved variation between models (using the linear opinion pool method) was consistently more reliable than any single model in periods of valid scenario assumptions, while projection interval coverage was near target levels. SMH projections were used to guide pandemic response, illustrating the value of collaborative hubs for longer-term scenario projections.
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Jung SM, Loo SL, Howerton E, Contamin L, Smith CP, Carcelén EC, Yan K, Bents SJ, Levander J, Espino J, Lemaitre JC, Sato K, McKee CD, Hill AL, Chinazzi M, Davis JT, Mu K, Vespignani A, Rosenstrom ET, Rodriguez-Cartes SA, Ivy JS, Mayorga ME, Swann JL, España G, Cavany S, Moore SM, Perkins A, Chen S, Paul R, Janies D, Thill JC, Srivastava A, Al Aawar M, Bi K, Bandekar SR, Bouchnita A, Fox SJ, Meyers LA, Porebski P, Venkatramanan S, Adiga A, Hurt B, Klahn B, Outten J, Chen J, Mortveit H, Wilson A, Hoops S, Bhattacharya P, Machi D, Vullikanti A, Lewis B, Marathe M, Hochheiser H, Runge MC, Shea K, Truelove S, Viboud C, Lessler J. Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: lessons from the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2023:2023.10.26.23297581. [PMID: 37961207 PMCID: PMC10635209 DOI: 10.1101/2023.10.26.23297581] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/15/2023]
Abstract
Importance COVID-19 continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear. Objective To project COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths from April 2023-April 2025 under two plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and three possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no vaccine recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65+, vaccination for all eligible groups). Design The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023-April 15, 2025 under six scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. State and national projections from eight modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario. Setting The entire United States. Participants None. Exposure Annually reformulated vaccines assumed to be 65% effective against strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age and state specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster. Main outcomes and measures Ensemble estimates of weekly and cumulative COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths. Expected relative and absolute reductions in hospitalizations and deaths due to vaccination over the projection period. Results From April 15, 2023-April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November-January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% PI: 1,438,000-4,270,000) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI: 139,000-461,000) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% CI: 104,000-355,000) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI: 12,000-54,000) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000-598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI: 29,000-69,000) fewer deaths. Conclusion and Relevance COVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming two years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease.
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Long Y, Lin J, Ye F, Liu W, Wang D, Cheng Q, Paul R, Cheng D, Mao B, Yan R, Zhao L, Liu D, Liu F, Hu C. Tailoring the Atomic-Local Environment of Carbon Nanotube Tips for Selective H 2 O 2 Electrosynthesis at High Current Densities. ADVANCED MATERIALS (DEERFIELD BEACH, FLA.) 2023; 35:e2303905. [PMID: 37535390 DOI: 10.1002/adma.202303905] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/26/2023] [Revised: 07/01/2023] [Indexed: 08/04/2023]
Abstract
The atomic-local environment of catalytically active sites plays an important role in tuning the activity of carbon-based metal-free electrocatalysts (C-MFECs). However, the rational regulation of the environment is always impeded by synthetic limitations and insufficient understanding of the formation mechanism of the catalytic sites. Herein, the possible cleavage mechanism of carbon nanotubes (CNTs) through the crossing points during ball-milling is proposed, resulting in abundant CNT tips that are more susceptible to be modified by heteroatoms, achieving precise modulation of the atomic environment at the tips. The obtained CNTs with N,S-rich tips (N,S-TCNTs) exhibit a wide potential window of 0.59 V along with H2 O2 selectivity for over 90.0%. Even using air as the O2 source, the flow cell system with N,S-TCNTs catalyst attains high H2 O2 productivity up to 30.37 mol gcat. -1 h-1 @350 mA cm-2 , superior to most reported C-MFECs. From a practical point of view, a solid electrolyzer based on N,S-TCNTs is further employed to realize the in-situ continuous generation of pure H2 O2 solution with high productivity (up to 4.35 mmol cm-2 h-1 @300 mA cm-2 ; over 300 h). The CNTs with functionalized tips hold great promise for practical applications, even beyond H2 O2 generation.
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Zhao L, Cai Q, Mao B, Mao J, Dong H, Xiang Z, Zhu J, Paul R, Wang D, Long Y, Qu L, Yan R, Dai L, Hu C. A universal approach to dual-metal-atom catalytic sites confined in carbon dots for various target reactions. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2023; 120:e2308828120. [PMID: 37871204 PMCID: PMC10622929 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2308828120] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/26/2023] [Accepted: 09/22/2023] [Indexed: 10/25/2023] Open
Abstract
Here, a molecular-design and carbon dot-confinement coupling strategy through the pyrolysis of bimetallic complex of diethylenetriamine pentaacetic acid under low-temperature is proposed as a universal approach to dual-metal-atom sites in carbon dots (DMASs-CDs). CDs as the "carbon islands" could block the migration of DMASs across "islands" to achieve dynamic stability. More than twenty DMASs-CDs with specific compositions of DMASs (pairwise combinations among Fe, Co, Ni, Mn, Zn, Cu, and Mo) have been synthesized successfully. Thereafter, high intrinsic activity is observed for the probe reaction of urea oxidation on NiMn-CDs. In situ and ex situ spectroscopic characterization and first-principle calculations unveil that the synergistic effect in NiMn-DMASs could stretch the urea molecule and weaken the N-H bond, endowing NiMn-CDs with a low energy barrier for urea dehydrogenation. Moreover, DMASs-CDs for various target electrochemical reactions, including but not limited to urea oxidation, are realized by optimizing the specific DMAS combination in CDs.
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Paul R, Goldberg SI, Chan AW. Demystifying the Role of Radiation Dose Bath in Brain Injury Using Machine Learning. Int J Radiat Oncol Biol Phys 2023; 117:e460. [PMID: 37785474 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijrobp.2023.06.1656] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/04/2023]
Abstract
PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE(S) It is well known that high-dose radiation results in brain injury, the long-term effects of low-dose radiation, however, is uncertain. The purpose of this study was to investigate the role of low-dose bath on MRI changes, on both clinical and micro-architectural levels, using machine learning and computational methods. MATERIALS/METHODS Six hundreds and fifty-six temporal lobe and 45 whole brain DVHs from patients treated for nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC) with IMRT or proton were included in this study. Temporal lobe injury (TLI) was defined as development of new T1 enhancement on MRI with or without surrounding T2 edema. Patients were divided randomly into train (50%) and test (50%) sets. Accuracy and AUC were used to evaluate the model performance. Minimum redundancy maximum relevance (MRMR) or SHAP algorithms was employed for feature selection. Support vector machine or random forest was used for classification. Automated cortical region segmentation using FreeSurfer v6 was performed in 33 patients with a minimum follow-up of 4 years. Architectural and biological MRI changes were determined in 34 different brain regions for each individual patient. RESULTS The top-ranked temporal lobe features predicting TLI were V66/V38 for IMRT patients and V10 for proton patients with an AUC of 0.95 and 0.74, respectively. For whole brain, the top features were V16 and V13 with an AUC of 0.70. The rates of TLI at 5 years for V10-20(whole brain) ≥ 180cc and V10-20(whole brain) < 180 were 39.5% and 6.2%, respectively (HR = 5.5, 95% CI 1.4-22.0, p = 0.02). There were global changes in gray matter thickness, with most pronounced changes occurred in parietal lobe (-4.79%, p = 0.007) and occipital lobe (-5.68%, p = 0.03). Similarly, there were diffuse changes in white matter and subcortical volume. After radiation, the frontal lobe increased by 17.5% (p = 0.04), lateral ventricle 41% (p = 0.03), and choroid plexus 34.3% (p = 0.03). CONCLUSION Low-dose radiation bath is associated with increased risk of temporal lobe injury and global disruption in brain architecture in NPC survivors.
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Roy R, Paul R, Bhattacharya P, Borah A. Combating Dopaminergic Neurodegeneration in Parkinson's Disease through Nanovesicle Technology. ACS Chem Neurosci 2023; 14:2830-2848. [PMID: 37534999 DOI: 10.1021/acschemneuro.3c00070] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 08/04/2023] Open
Abstract
Parkinson's disease (PD) is characterized by dopaminergic neurodegeneration, resulting in dopamine depletion and motor behavior deficits. Since the discovery of L-DOPA, it has been the most prescribed drug for symptomatic relief in PD, whose prolonged use, however, causes undesirable motor fluctuations like dyskinesia and dystonia. Further, therapeutics targeting the pathological hallmarks of PD including α-synuclein aggregation, oxidative stress, neuroinflammation, and autophagy impairment have also been developed, yet PD treatment is a largely unmet success. The inception of the nanovesicle-based drug delivery approach over the past few decades brings add-on advantages to the therapeutic strategies for PD treatment in which nanovesicles (basically phospholipid-containing artificial structures) are used to load and deliver drugs to the target site of the body. The present review narrates the characteristic features of nanovesicles including their blood-brain barrier permeability and ability to reach dopaminergic neurons of the brain and finally discusses the current status of this technology in the treatment of PD. From the review, it becomes evident that with the assistance of nanovesicle technology, the therapeutic efficacy of anti-PD pharmaceuticals, phyto-compounds, as well as that of nucleic acids targeting α-synuclein aggregation gained a significant increment. Furthermore, owing to the multiple drug-carrying abilities of nanovesicles, combination therapy targeting multiple pathogenic events of PD has also found success in preclinical studies and will plausibly lead to effective treatment strategies in the near future.
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Howerton E, Contamin L, Mullany LC, Qin M, Reich NG, Bents S, Borchering RK, Jung SM, Loo SL, Smith CP, Levander J, Kerr J, Espino J, van Panhuis WG, Hochheiser H, Galanti M, Yamana T, Pei S, Shaman J, Rainwater-Lovett K, Kinsey M, Tallaksen K, Wilson S, Shin L, Lemaitre JC, Kaminsky J, Hulse JD, Lee EC, McKee C, Hill A, Karlen D, Chinazzi M, Davis JT, Mu K, Xiong X, Piontti APY, Vespignani A, Rosenstrom ET, Ivy JS, Mayorga ME, Swann JL, España G, Cavany S, Moore S, Perkins A, Hladish T, Pillai A, Toh KB, Longini I, Chen S, Paul R, Janies D, Thill JC, Bouchnita A, Bi K, Lachmann M, Fox S, Meyers LA, Srivastava A, Porebski P, Venkatramanan S, Adiga A, Lewis B, Klahn B, Outten J, Hurt B, Chen J, Mortveit H, Wilson A, Marathe M, Hoops S, Bhattacharya P, Machi D, Cadwell BL, Healy JM, Slayton RB, Johansson MA, Biggerstaff M, Truelove S, Runge MC, Shea K, Viboud C, Lessler J. Informing pandemic response in the face of uncertainty. An evaluation of the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2023:2023.06.28.23291998. [PMID: 37461674 PMCID: PMC10350156 DOI: 10.1101/2023.06.28.23291998] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 07/24/2023]
Abstract
Our ability to forecast epidemics more than a few weeks into the future is constrained by the complexity of disease systems, our limited ability to measure the current state of an epidemic, and uncertainties in how human action will affect transmission. Realistic longer-term projections (spanning more than a few weeks) may, however, be possible under defined scenarios that specify the future state of critical epidemic drivers, with the additional benefit that such scenarios can be used to anticipate the comparative effect of control measures. Since December 2020, the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) has convened multiple modeling teams to make 6-month ahead projections of the number of SARS-CoV-2 cases, hospitalizations and deaths. The SMH released nearly 1.8 million national and state-level projections between February 2021 and November 2022. SMH performance varied widely as a function of both scenario validity and model calibration. Scenario assumptions were periodically invalidated by the arrival of unanticipated SARS-CoV-2 variants, but SMH still provided projections on average 22 weeks before changes in assumptions (such as virus transmissibility) invalidated scenarios and their corresponding projections. During these periods, before emergence of a novel variant, a linear opinion pool ensemble of contributed models was consistently more reliable than any single model, and projection interval coverage was near target levels for the most plausible scenarios (e.g., 79% coverage for 95% projection interval). SMH projections were used operationally to guide planning and policy at different stages of the pandemic, illustrating the value of the hub approach for long-term scenario projections.
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Martínez DA, Cai J, Lin G, Goodman KE, Paul R, Lessler J, Levin SR, Toerper M, Simner PJ, Milstone AM, Klein EY. Modelling interventions and contact networks to reduce the spread of carbapenem-resistant organisms between individuals in the ICU. J Hosp Infect 2023; 136:1-7. [PMID: 36907332 PMCID: PMC10315994 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhin.2023.02.016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/22/2022] [Revised: 01/25/2023] [Accepted: 02/03/2023] [Indexed: 03/13/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Contact precautions are widely used to prevent the transmission of carbapenem-resistant organisms (CROs) in hospital wards. However, evidence for their effectiveness in natural hospital environments is limited. OBJECTIVE To determine which contact precautions, healthcare worker (HCW)-patient interactions, and patient and ward characteristics are associated with greater risk of CRO infection or colonization. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS CRO clinical and surveillance cultures from two high-acuity wards were assessed through probabilistic modelling to characterize a susceptible patient's risk of CRO infection or colonization during a ward stay. User- and time-stamped electronic health records were used to build HCW-mediated contact networks between patients. Probabilistic models were adjusted for patient (e.g. antibiotic administration) and ward (e.g. hand hygiene compliance, environmental cleaning) characteristics. The effects of risk factors were assessed by adjusted odds ratio (aOR) and 95% Bayesian credible intervals (CrI). EXPOSURES The degree of interaction with CRO-positive patients, stratified by whether CRO-positive patients were on contact precautions. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The prevalence of CROs and number of new carriers (i.e. incident CRO aquisition). RESULTS Among 2193 ward visits, 126 (5.8%) patients became colonized or infected with CROs. Susceptible patients had 4.8 daily interactions with CRO-positive individuals on contact precautions (vs 1.9 interactions with those not on contact precautions). The use of contact precautions for CRO-positive patients was associated with a reduced rate (7.4 vs 93.5 per 1000 patient-days at risk) and odds (aOR 0.03, 95% CrI 0.01-0.17) of CRO acquisition among susceptible patients, resulting in an estimated absolute risk reduction of 9.0% (95% CrI 7.6-9.2%). Also, carbapenem administration to susceptible patients was associated with increased odds of CRO acquisition (aOR 2.38, 95% CrI 1.70-3.29). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this population-based cohort study, the use of contact precautions for patients colonized or infected with CROs was associated with lower risk of CRO acquisition among susceptible patients, even after adjusting for antibiotic exposure. Further studies that include organism genotyping are needed to confirm these findings.
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Shea K, Borchering RK, Probert WJM, Howerton E, Bogich TL, Li SL, van Panhuis WG, Viboud C, Aguás R, Belov AA, Bhargava SH, Cavany SM, Chang JC, Chen C, Chen J, Chen S, Chen Y, Childs LM, Chow CC, Crooker I, Del Valle SY, España G, Fairchild G, Gerkin RC, Germann TC, Gu Q, Guan X, Guo L, Hart GR, Hladish TJ, Hupert N, Janies D, Kerr CC, Klein DJ, Klein EY, Lin G, Manore C, Meyers LA, Mittler JE, Mu K, Núñez RC, Oidtman RJ, Pasco R, Pastore Y Piontti A, Paul R, Pearson CAB, Perdomo DR, Perkins TA, Pierce K, Pillai AN, Rael RC, Rosenfeld K, Ross CW, Spencer JA, Stoltzfus AB, Toh KB, Vattikuti S, Vespignani A, Wang L, White LJ, Xu P, Yang Y, Yogurtcu ON, Zhang W, Zhao Y, Zou D, Ferrari MJ, Pannell D, Tildesley MJ, Seifarth J, Johnson E, Biggerstaff M, Johansson MA, Slayton RB, Levander JD, Stazer J, Kerr J, Runge MC. Multiple models for outbreak decision support in the face of uncertainty. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2023; 120:e2207537120. [PMID: 37098064 PMCID: PMC10160947 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2207537120] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/26/2023] Open
Abstract
Policymakers must make management decisions despite incomplete knowledge and conflicting model projections. Little guidance exists for the rapid, representative, and unbiased collection of policy-relevant scientific input from independent modeling teams. Integrating approaches from decision analysis, expert judgment, and model aggregation, we convened multiple modeling teams to evaluate COVID-19 reopening strategies for a mid-sized United States county early in the pandemic. Projections from seventeen distinct models were inconsistent in magnitude but highly consistent in ranking interventions. The 6-mo-ahead aggregate projections were well in line with observed outbreaks in mid-sized US counties. The aggregate results showed that up to half the population could be infected with full workplace reopening, while workplace restrictions reduced median cumulative infections by 82%. Rankings of interventions were consistent across public health objectives, but there was a strong trade-off between public health outcomes and duration of workplace closures, and no win-win intermediate reopening strategies were identified. Between-model variation was high; the aggregate results thus provide valuable risk quantification for decision making. This approach can be applied to the evaluation of management interventions in any setting where models are used to inform decision making. This case study demonstrated the utility of our approach and was one of several multimodel efforts that laid the groundwork for the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, which has provided multiple rounds of real-time scenario projections for situational awareness and decision making to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention since December 2020.
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Ye F, Zhang S, Cheng Q, Long Y, Liu D, Paul R, Fang Y, Su Y, Qu L, Dai L, Hu C. The role of oxygen-vacancy in bifunctional indium oxyhydroxide catalysts for electrochemical coupling of biomass valorization with CO 2 conversion. Nat Commun 2023; 14:2040. [PMID: 37041142 PMCID: PMC10090200 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-37679-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/15/2022] [Accepted: 03/28/2023] [Indexed: 04/13/2023] Open
Abstract
Electrochemical coupling of biomass valorization with carbon dioxide (CO2) conversion provides a promising approach to generate value-added chemicals on both sides of the electrolyzer. Herein, oxygen-vacancy-rich indium oxyhydroxide (InOOH-OV) is developed as a bifunctional catalyst for CO2 reduction to formate and 5-hydroxymethylfurfural electrooxidation to 2,5-furandicarboxylic acid with faradaic efficiencies for both over 90.0% at optimized potentials. Atomic-scale electron microscopy images and density functional theory calculations reveal that the introduction of oxygen vacancy sites causes lattice distortion and charge redistribution. Operando Raman spectra indicate oxygen vacancies could protect the InOOH-OV from being further reduced during CO2 conversion and increase the adsorption competitiveness for 5-hydroxymethylfurfural over hydroxide ions in alkaline electrolytes, making InOOH-OV a main-group p-block metal oxide electrocatalyst with bifunctional activities. Based on the catalytic performance of InOOH-OV, a pH-asymmetric integrated cell is fabricated by combining the CO2 reduction and 5-hydroxymethylfurfural oxidation together in a single electrochemical cell to produce 2,5-furandicarboxylic acid and formate with high yields (both around 90.0%), providing a promising approach to generate valuable commodity chemicals simultaneously on both electrodes.
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Paul R, Roy J, Roy K. Prediction of soil ecotoxicity against Folsomia candida using acute and chronic endpoints. SAR AND QSAR IN ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2023; 34:321-340. [PMID: 37218661 DOI: 10.1080/1062936x.2023.2211350] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/24/2023]
Abstract
Soil invertebrates serve as great biological indicators of soil quality. However, there are very few in silico models developed so far on the soil toxicity of chemicals against soil invertebrates due to paucity of data. In this study, three available soil ecotoxicity data (pLC50, pLOEL and pNOEL) against the soil invertebrate Folsomia candida were collected from the ECOTOX database (cfpub.epa.gov/ecotox) and subjected to quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) analysis using 2D descriptors. The collected data for each endpoint were initially curated and used to develop a partial least squares (PLS) regression model based on the features selected through a genetic algorithm followed by the best subset selection. Both internal and external validation metrics of the models' predictions are well-balanced and within the acceptable range as per the Organization for the Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) criteria. From the developed models, it has been found that molecular weight and presence of phosphate group, electron donor groups, and polyhalogen substitution have a significant impact on the soil ecotoxicity. The soil ecotoxicological risk assessment of organic chemicals can therefore be prioritized by these features. With the availability of additional data in the future, the models may be further refined for more precise predictions.
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Gao J, Keenan OE, Johnson AS, Wilhelm CA, Paul R, Racine EF. The COVID-19 Pandemic, Rising Inflation, and Their Influence on Dining Out Frequency and Spending. Nutrients 2023; 15:nu15061373. [PMID: 36986103 PMCID: PMC10058983 DOI: 10.3390/nu15061373] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/28/2023] [Revised: 03/03/2023] [Accepted: 03/10/2023] [Indexed: 03/14/2023] Open
Abstract
Background: High intake of food away from home is associated with poor diet quality. This study examines how the COVID-19 pandemic period and Food Away from Home (FAFH) inflation rate fluctuations influenced dining out behaviors. Methods: Approximately 2800 individuals in Texas reported household weekly dining out frequency and spending. Responses completed prior to the COVID-19 pandemic (2019 to early 2020) were compared to the post-COVID-19 period (2021 through mid-2022). Multivariate analysis with interaction terms was used to test study hypotheses. Results and Conclusion: From the COVID-19 period (before vs. after), the unadjusted frequency of dining out increased from 3.4 times per week to 3.5 times per week, while the amount spent on dining out increased from $63.90 to $82.20. Once the relationship between dining out (frequency and spending) was adjusted for FAFH interest rate and sociodemographic factors, an increase in dining out frequency post-COVID-19 remained significant. However, the unadjusted increase in dining out spending did not remain significant. Further research to understand the demand for dining out post-pandemic is warranted.
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Mehta Y, Paul R, Ansari AS, Banerjee T, Gunaydin S, Nassiri AA, Pappalardo F, Premužić V, Sathe P, Singh V, Vela ER. Extracorporeal blood purification strategies in sepsis and septic shock: An insight into recent advancements. World J Crit Care Med 2023; 12:71-88. [PMID: 37034019 PMCID: PMC10075046 DOI: 10.5492/wjccm.v12.i2.71] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2022] [Revised: 01/05/2023] [Accepted: 02/17/2023] [Indexed: 03/07/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Despite various therapies to treat sepsis, it is one of the leading causes of mortality in the intensive care unit patients globally. Knowledge about the pathophysiology of sepsis has sparked interest in extracorporeal therapies (ECT) which are intended to balance the dysregulation of the immune system by removing excessive levels of inflammatory mediators.
AIM To review recent data on the use of ECT in sepsis and to assess their effects on various inflammatory and clinical outcomes.
METHODS In this review, an extensive English literature search was conducted from the last two decades to identify the use of ECT in sepsis. A total of 68 articles from peer-reviewed and indexed journals were selected excluding publications with only abstracts.
RESULTS Results showed that ECT techniques such as high-volume hemofiltration, coupled plasma adsorption/filtration, resin or polymer adsorbers, and CytoSorb® are emerging as adjunct therapies to improve hemodynamic stability in sepsis. CytoSorb® has the most published data in regard to the use in the field of septic shock with reports on improved survival rates and lowered sequential organ failure assessment scores, lactate levels, total leucocyte count, platelet count, interleukin- IL-6, IL-10, and TNF levels.
CONCLUSION Clinical acceptance of ECT in sepsis and septic shock is currently still limited due to a lack of large random clinical trials. In addition to patient-tailored therapies, future research developments with therapies targeting the cellular level of the immune response are expected.
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Gong X, Polsin DN, Paul R, Henderson BJ, Eggert JH, Coppari F, Smith RF, Rygg JR, Collins GW. X-Ray Diffraction of Ramp-Compressed Silicon to 390 GPa. PHYSICAL REVIEW LETTERS 2023; 130:076101. [PMID: 36867795 DOI: 10.1103/physrevlett.130.076101] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/10/2022] [Revised: 11/15/2022] [Accepted: 01/19/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Silicon (Si) exhibits a rich collection of phase transitions under ambient-temperature isothermal and shock compression. This report describes in situ diffraction measurements of ramp-compressed Si between 40 and 389 GPa. Angle-dispersive x-ray scattering reveals that Si assumes an hexagonal close-packed (hcp) structure between 40 and 93 GPa and, at higher pressure, a face-centered cubic structure that persists to at least 389 GPa, the highest pressure for which the crystal structure of Si has been investigated. The range of hcp stability extends to higher pressures and temperatures than predicted by theory.
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Phukan BC, Roy R, Paul R, Mazumder MK, Nath J, Bhattacharya P, Borah A. Traversing through the cell signaling pathways of neuroprotection by betanin: therapeutic relevance to Alzheimer's Disease and Parkinson's Disease. Metab Brain Dis 2023; 38:805-817. [PMID: 36745251 DOI: 10.1007/s11011-023-01177-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/08/2022] [Accepted: 01/23/2023] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
Modulation of cell signaling pathways is the key area of research towards the treatment of neurodegenerative disorders. Altered Nrf2-Keap1-ARE (Nuclear factor erythroid-2-related factor 2-Kelch-like ECH-associated protein 1-Antioxidant responsive element) and SIRT1 (Sirtuin 1) cell signaling pathways are considered to play major role in the etiology and pathogenesis of Alzheimer's disease (AD) and Parkinson's disease (PD). Strikingly, betanin, a betanidin 5-O-β-D-glucoside compound is reported to show commendable anti-oxidative, anti-inflammatory and anti-apoptotic effects in several disease studies including AD and PD. The present review discusses the pre-clinical studies demonstrating the neuroprotective effects of betanin by virtue of its potential to ameliorate oxidative stress, neuroinflammation, abnormal protein aggregation and cell death. It highlights the direct linkage between the neuroprotective abilities of betanin and upregulation of the Nrf2-Keap1-ARE and SIRT1 signaling pathways. The review further hypothesizes the involvement of the betanin-Nrf2-ARE route in the inhibition of beta-amyloid aggregation through beta-site amyloid precursor protein cleaving enzyme 1 (BACE1), one of the pivotal hallmarks of AD. The present review hereby for the first time elaborately discusses the reported neuroprotective abilities of betanin and decodes the Nrf2 and SIRT1 modulating potential of betanin as a primary mechanism of action behind, hence highlighting it as a novel drug candidate for the treatment of neurodegenerative diseases in the near future.
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Adeyemi O, Paul R, Delmelle E, DiMaggio C, Arif A. Road environment characteristics and fatal crash injury during the rush and non-rush hour periods in the U.S: Model testing and cluster analysis. Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol 2023; 44:100562. [PMID: 36707195 DOI: 10.1016/j.sste.2022.100562] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/28/2022] [Revised: 10/13/2022] [Accepted: 12/14/2022] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Abstract
This study aims to assess the relationship between county-level fatal crash injuries and road environmental characteristics at all times of the day and during the rush and non-rush hour periods. We merged eleven-year (2010 - 2020) data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System. The outcome variable was the county-level fatal crash injury counts. The predictor variables were measures of road types, junction types and work zone, and weather types. We tested the predictiveness of two nested negative binomial models and adjudged that a nested spatial negative binomial regression model outperformed the non-spatial negative binomial model. The median county crash mortality rates at all times of the day and during the rush and non-rush hour periods were 18.4, 7.7, and 10.4 per 100,000 population, respectively. Fatal crash injury rate ratios were significantly elevated on interstates and highways at all times of the day - rush and non-rush hour periods inclusive. Intersections, driveways, and ramps on highways were associated with elevated fatal crash injury rate ratios. Clusters of high fatal crash injury rates were observed in counties located in Montana, Nevada, Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and Nevada. The built and natural road environment factors are associated with county-level fatal crash injuries during the rush and non-rush hour periods. Understanding the association of road environment characteristics and the cluster distribution of fatal crash injuries may inform areas in need of focused intervention.
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Adeyemi OJ, Paul R, Akinsola OO, Bouillon-Minois JB, Arinxe GR, Arif AA. Poverty, Health Care Access Barriers, and Functional Limitations among Individuals with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: An 11-Year Cross-sectional Analysis, 2008-2018. J Health Care Poor Underserved 2023; 34:652-672. [PMID: 37464524 DOI: 10.1353/hpu.2023.0056] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 07/20/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To assess the relationship between poverty, delayed care, unaffordable care, and functional limitations among individuals with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). METHODS Using the National Health Interview Survey data, we selected respondents with COPD, aged 40 years and older. The predictor variables were poverty and measures of delayed and unaffordable care. The outcome variable was functional limitations. We performed a survey-weighted multivariate logistic regression analysis, adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics. RESULTS Respondents classified as poor had three times the odds of functional limitations compared with those classified as not poor. Respondents who reported having measures of delayed care or unaffordable care had two to nine times and two to four times the adjusted odds of functional limitations compared with those who did not report such measures of delayed and unaffordable care, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Poverty and delayed and unaffordable care are associated with functional limitations among individuals with COPD.
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Borchering RK, Mullany LC, Howerton E, Chinazzi M, Smith CP, Qin M, Reich NG, Contamin L, Levander J, Kerr J, Espino J, Hochheiser H, Lovett K, Kinsey M, Tallaksen K, Wilson S, Shin L, Lemaitre JC, Hulse JD, Kaminsky J, Lee EC, Hill AL, Davis JT, Mu K, Xiong X, Pastore y Piontti A, Vespignani A, Srivastava A, Porebski P, Venkatramanan S, Adiga A, Lewis B, Klahn B, Outten J, Hurt B, Chen J, Mortveit H, Wilson A, Marathe M, Hoops S, Bhattacharya P, Machi D, Chen S, Paul R, Janies D, Thill JC, Galanti M, Yamana T, Pei S, Shaman J, España G, Cavany S, Moore S, Perkins A, Healy JM, Slayton RB, Johansson MA, Biggerstaff M, Shea K, Truelove SA, Runge MC, Viboud C, Lessler J. Impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of children ages 5-11 years on COVID-19 disease burden and resilience to new variants in the United States, November 2021-March 2022: A multi-model study. LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH. AMERICAS 2023; 17:100398. [PMID: 36437905 PMCID: PMC9679449 DOI: 10.1016/j.lana.2022.100398] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/21/2022] [Revised: 09/21/2022] [Accepted: 10/27/2022] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
Abstract
Background The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub convened nine modeling teams to project the impact of expanding SARS-CoV-2 vaccination to children aged 5-11 years on COVID-19 burden and resilience against variant strains. Methods Teams contributed state- and national-level weekly projections of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States from September 12, 2021 to March 12, 2022. Four scenarios covered all combinations of 1) vaccination (or not) of children aged 5-11 years (starting November 1, 2021), and 2) emergence (or not) of a variant more transmissible than the Delta variant (emerging November 15, 2021). Individual team projections were linearly pooled. The effect of childhood vaccination on overall and age-specific outcomes was estimated using meta-analyses. Findings Assuming that a new variant would not emerge, all-age COVID-19 outcomes were projected to decrease nationally through mid-March 2022. In this setting, vaccination of children 5-11 years old was associated with reductions in projections for all-age cumulative cases (7.2%, mean incidence ratio [IR] 0.928, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.880-0.977), hospitalizations (8.7%, mean IR 0.913, 95% CI 0.834-0.992), and deaths (9.2%, mean IR 0.908, 95% CI 0.797-1.020) compared with scenarios without childhood vaccination. Vaccine benefits increased for scenarios including a hypothesized more transmissible variant, assuming similar vaccine effectiveness. Projected relative reductions in cumulative outcomes were larger for children than for the entire population. State-level variation was observed. Interpretation Given the scenario assumptions (defined before the emergence of Omicron), expanding vaccination to children 5-11 years old would provide measurable direct benefits, as well as indirect benefits to the all-age U.S. population, including resilience to more transmissible variants. Funding Various (see acknowledgments).
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