Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

BACKGROUND

Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories.

METHODS

We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5-19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For school-aged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI <2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI >2 SD above the median).

FINDINGS

From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness.

INTERPRETATION

The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesity.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, UK Research and Innovation (Research England), UK Research and Innovation (Innovate UK), and European Union.

Global variation in diabetes diagnosis and prevalence based on fasting glucose and hemoglobin A1c

Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) are both used to diagnose diabetes, but these measurements can identify different people as having diabetes. We used data from 117 population-based studies and quantified, in different world regions, the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes, and whether those who were previously undiagnosed and detected as having diabetes in survey screening, had elevated FPG, HbA1c or both. We developed prediction equations for estimating the probability that a person without previously diagnosed diabetes, and at a specific level of FPG, had elevated HbA1c, and vice versa. The age-standardized proportion of diabetes that was previously undiagnosed and detected in survey screening ranged from 30% in the high-income western region to 66% in south Asia. Among those with screen-detected diabetes with either test, the age-standardized proportion who had elevated levels of both FPG and HbA1c was 29-39% across regions; the remainder had discordant elevation of FPG or HbA1c. In most low- and middle-income regions, isolated elevated HbA1c was more common than isolated elevated FPG. In these regions, the use of FPG alone may delay diabetes diagnosis and underestimate diabetes prevalence. Our prediction equations help allocate finite resources for measuring HbA1c to reduce the global shortfall in diabetes diagnosis and surveillance.

Global Effect of Modifiable Risk Factors on Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality

BACKGROUND

Five modifiable risk factors are associated with cardiovascular disease and death from any cause. Studies using individual-level data to evaluate the regional and sex-specific prevalence of the risk factors and their effect on these outcomes are lacking.

METHODS

We pooled and harmonized individual-level data from 112 cohort studies conducted in 34 countries and 8 geographic regions participating in the Global Cardiovascular Risk Consortium. We examined associations between the risk factors (body-mass index, systolic blood pressure, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, current smoking, and diabetes) and incident cardiovascular disease and death from any cause using Cox regression analyses, stratified according to geographic region, age, and sex. Population-attributable fractions were estimated for the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease and 10-year all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

Among 1,518,028 participants (54.1% of whom were women) with a median age of 54.4 years, regional variations in the prevalence of the five modifiable risk factors were noted. Incident cardiovascular disease occurred in 80,596 participants during a median follow-up of 7.3 years (maximum, 47.3), and 177,369 participants died during a median follow-up of 8.7 years (maximum, 47.6). For all five risk factors combined, the aggregate global population-attributable fraction of the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease was 57.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 52.4 to 62.1) among women and 52.6% (95% CI, 49.0 to 56.1) among men, and the corresponding values for 10-year all-cause mortality were 22.2% (95% CI, 16.8 to 27.5) and 19.1% (95% CI, 14.6 to 23.6).

CONCLUSIONS

Harmonized individual-level data from a global cohort showed that 57.2% and 52.6% of cases of incident cardiovascular disease among women and men, respectively, and 22.2% and 19.1% of deaths from any cause among women and men, respectively, may be attributable to five modifiable risk factors. (Funded by the German Center for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK); ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT05466825.).

Prospective associations between diet quality, dietary components, and risk of cardiometabolic multimorbidity in older British men

PURPOSE

Cardiometabolic multimorbidity (CMM) is a major public health challenge. This study investigated the prospective relationships between diet quality, dietary components, and risk of CMM in older British men.

METHODS

We used data from the British Regional Heart Study of 2873 men aged 60-79 free of myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and type 2 diabetes (T2D) at baseline. CMM was defined as the coexistence of two or more cardiometabolic diseases, including MI, stroke, and T2D. Sourcing baseline food frequency questionnaire, the Elderly Dietary Index (EDI), which was a diet quality score based on Mediterranean diet and MyPyramid for Older Adults, was generated. Cox proportional hazards regression and multi-state model were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 19.3 years, 891 participants developed first cardiometabolic disease (FCMD), and 109 developed CMM. Cox regression analyses found no significant association between baseline EDI and risk of CMM. However, fish/seafood consumption, a dietary component of the EDI score, was inversely associated with risk of CMM, with HR 0.44 (95% CI 0.26, 0.73) for consuming fish/seafood 1-2 days/week compared to less than 1 day/week after adjustment. Further analyses with multi-state model showed that fish/seafood consumption played a protective role in the transition from FCMD to CMM.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study did not find a significant association of baseline EDI with CMM but showed that consuming more fish/seafood per week was associated with a lower risk of transition from FCMD to CMM in older British men.

Life expectancy associated with different ages at diagnosis of type 2 diabetes in high-income countries: 23 million person-years of observation

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of type 2 diabetes is increasing rapidly, particularly among younger age groups. Estimates suggest that people with diabetes die, on average, 6 years earlier than people without diabetes. We aimed to provide reliable estimates of the associations between age at diagnosis of diabetes and all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and reductions in life expectancy.

METHODS

For this observational study, we conducted a combined analysis of individual-participant data from 19 high-income countries using two large-scale data sources: the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (96 cohorts, median baseline years 1961-2007, median latest follow-up years 1980-2013) and the UK Biobank (median baseline year 2006, median latest follow-up year 2020). We calculated age-adjusted and sex-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality according to age at diagnosis of diabetes using data from 1 515 718 participants, in whom deaths were recorded during 23·1 million person-years of follow-up. We estimated cumulative survival by applying age-specific HRs to age-specific death rates from 2015 for the USA and the EU.

FINDINGS

For participants with diabetes, we observed a linear dose-response association between earlier age at diagnosis and higher risk of all-cause mortality compared with participants without diabetes. HRs were 2·69 (95% CI 2·43-2·97) when diagnosed at 30-39 years, 2·26 (2·08-2·45) at 40-49 years, 1·84 (1·72-1·97) at 50-59 years, 1·57 (1·47-1·67) at 60-69 years, and 1·39 (1·29-1·51) at 70 years and older. HRs per decade of earlier diagnosis were similar for men and women. Using death rates from the USA, a 50-year-old individual with diabetes died on average 14 years earlier when diagnosed aged 30 years, 10 years earlier when diagnosed aged 40 years, or 6 years earlier when diagnosed aged 50 years than an individual without diabetes. Using EU death rates, the corresponding estimates were 13, 9, or 5 years earlier.

INTERPRETATION

Every decade of earlier diagnosis of diabetes was associated with about 3-4 years of lower life expectancy, highlighting the need to develop and implement interventions that prevent or delay the onset of diabetes and to intensify the treatment of risk factors among young adults diagnosed with diabetes.

FUNDING

British Heart Foundation, Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health and Care Research, and Health Data Research UK.

Influence of neighborhood-level socioeconomic deprivation and individual socioeconomic position on risk of developing type 2 diabetes in older men: a longitudinal analysis in the British Regional Heart Study cohort

INTRODUCTION

Evidence from longitudinal studies on the influence of neighborhood socioeconomic deprivation in older age on the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is limited. This study investigates the prospective associations of neighborhood-level deprivation and individual socioeconomic position (SEP) with T2DM incidence in older age.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

The British Regional Heart Study studied 4252 men aged 60-79 years in 1998-2000. Neighborhood-level deprivation was based on the Index of Multiple Deprivation quintiles for participants' 1998-2000 residential postcode. Individual SEP was defined as social class based on longest-held occupation. A cumulative score of individual socioeconomic factors was derived. Incident T2DM cases were ascertained from primary care records; prevalent cases were excluded. Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine the associations.

RESULTS

Among 3706 men, 368 incident cases of T2DM were observed over 18 years. The age-adjusted T2DM risk increased from the least deprived quintile to the most deprived: HR per quintile increase 1.14 (95% CI 1.06 to 1.23) (p=0.0005). The age-adjusted T2DM HR in social class V (lowest) versus social class I (highest) was 2.45 (95% CI 1.36 to 4.42) (p=0.001). Both associations attenuated but remained significant on adjustment for other deprivation measures, becoming non-significant on adjustment for body mass index and T2DM family history. T2DM risk increased with cumulative individual adverse socioeconomic factors: HR per point increase 1.14 (95% CI 1.05 to 1.24).

CONCLUSIONS

Inequalities in T2DM risk persist in later life, both in relation to neighborhood-level and individual-level socioeconomic factors. Underlying modifiable risk factors continue to need to be addressed in deprived older age populations to reduce disease burden.

Association of night-time sleep duration and daytime napping with all-cause and cause-specific mortality in older British men: Findings from the British Regional HeartStudy

Short and long night-time sleep and daytime napping in young and middle-aged populations were associated with increased mortality, but it is unclear in very older people. The aim of this prospective study was to assess the associations in people aged >70 years. We examined the data of British Regional Heart Study, which included 1722 men aged 71-92 years and had night-time sleep duration and daytime napping measured at baseline and were followed up for nine years. There were 597 deaths. Compared to night-time sleep at 7-<8 h, age-adjusted hazard ratio of all-cause mortality in participants sleeping <6 h was 1.04 (95% CI 0.80-1.35), 1.07 (0.85-1.34) in 6-<7 h, 1.04 (0.83-1.30) in 8-<9 h and 0.93 (0.65-1.33) in ≥9 h. Further adjustments for other co-variables still showed no association, and neither the association with cardiovascular mortality nor non-cardiovascular mortality. Daytime napping, however, was associated with mortality. After adjustment for age, smoking, physical activity, obesity, cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, frailty, general health, anti-hypertensive medication and C-reactive protein level, hazard ratio of all-cause mortality in participants with daytime napping >1-h versus no napping was 1.62 (1.18-2.22) and hazard ratio of non-cardiovascular mortality was 1.77 (1.22-2.57). The fully adjusted hazard ratio of cardiovascular mortality was not significantly increased 1.26 (0.69-2.28), although age-adjusted hazard ratio was significant 1.94 (1.20-3.16). In the elderly men, daytime napping was independently associated with increased all-cause and non-cardiovascular mortality, while its association with cardiovascular mortality could be explained by cardiovascular risk factors and co-morbidities. Night-time sleep duration was not associated with mortality risk.

The Relationship of Oral Health with Progression of Physical Frailty among Older Adults: A Longitudinal Study Composed of Two Cohorts of Older Adults from the United Kingdom and United States

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the prospective associations between oral health and progression of physical frailty in older adults.

DESIGN

Prospective analysis.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Data are from the British Regional Heart Study (BRHS) comprising 2137 men aged 71 to 92 years from 24 British towns and the Health, Aging, and Body Composition (HABC) Study of 3075 men and women aged 70 to 79 years.

METHODS

Oral health markers included denture use, tooth count, periodontal disease, self-rated oral health, dry mouth, and perceived difficulty eating. Physical frailty progression after ∼8 years follow-up was determined based on 2 scoring tools: the Fried frailty phenotype (for physical frailty) and the Gill index (for severe frailty). Logistic regression models were conducted to examine the associations between oral health markers and progression to frailty and severe frailty, adjusted for sociodemographic, behavioral, and health-related factors.

RESULTS

After full adjustment, progression to frailty was associated with dentition [per each additional tooth, odds ratio (OR) 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95-1.00], <21 teeth with (OR 1.74; 95% CI: 1.02-2.96) or without denture use (OR 2.45; 95% CI 1.15-5.21), and symptoms of dry mouth (OR ≥1.8; 95% CI ≥ 1.06-3.10) in the BRHS cohort. In the HABC Study, progression to frailty was associated with dry mouth (OR 2.62; 95% CI 1.05-6.55), self-reported difficulty eating (OR 2.12; 95% CI 1.28-3.50) and ≥2 cumulative oral health problems (OR 2.29; 95% CI 1.17-4.50). Progression to severe frailty was associated with edentulism (OR 4.44; 95% CI 1.39-14.15) and <21 teeth without dentures after full adjustment.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

These findings indicate that oral health problems, particularly tooth loss and dry mouth, in older adults are associated with progression to frailty in later life. Additional research is needed to determine if interventions aimed at maintaining (or improving) oral health can contribute to reducing the risk, and worsening, of physical frailty in older adults.

Diminishing benefits of urban living for children and adolescents' growth and development

Optimal growth and development in childhood and adolescence is crucial for lifelong health and well-being1-6. Here we used data from 2,325 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight from 71 million participants, to report the height and body-mass index (BMI) of children and adolescents aged 5-19 years on the basis of rural and urban place of residence in 200 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020. In 1990, children and adolescents residing in cities were taller than their rural counterparts in all but a few high-income countries. By 2020, the urban height advantage became smaller in most countries, and in many high-income western countries it reversed into a small urban-based disadvantage. The exception was for boys in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and in some countries in Oceania, south Asia and the region of central Asia, Middle East and north Africa. In these countries, successive cohorts of boys from rural places either did not gain height or possibly became shorter, and hence fell further behind their urban peers. The difference between the age-standardized mean BMI of children in urban and rural areas was <1.1 kg m-2 in the vast majority of countries. Within this small range, BMI increased slightly more in cities than in rural areas, except in south Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and some countries in central and eastern Europe. Our results show that in much of the world, the growth and developmental advantages of living in cities have diminished in the twenty-first century, whereas in much of sub-Saharan Africa they have amplified.

Exploring the associations of daily movement behaviours and mid-life cognition: a compositional analysis of the 1970 British Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Movement behaviours (eg, sedentary behaviour (SB), moderate and vigorous physical activity (MVPA), light intensity physical activity (LIPA) and sleep) are linked to cognition, yet the relative importance of each component is unclear, and not yet explored with compositional methodologies.

OBJECTIVE

To (i) assess the associations of different components of daily movement and participant's overall cognition, memory and executive function, and (ii) understand the relative importance of each individual component for cognition.

METHODS

The 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS70) is a prospective birth cohort study of UK-born adults. At age 46, participants consented to wear an accelerometer device and complete tests of verbal memory and executive function. Compositional linear regression was used to examine cross-sectional associations between 24-hour movement behaviours and standardised cognition scores. Isotemporal substitution was performed to model the effect of reallocating time between components of daily movement on cognition.

RESULTS

The sample comprised 4481 participants (52% female). Time in MVPA relative to SB, LIPA and sleep was positively associated with cognition after adjustments for education and occupational physical activity, but additional adjustment for health status attenuated associations. SB relative to all other movements was robustly positively associated with cognition. Modelling time reallocation between components revealed an increase in cognition centile after MVPA theoretically replaced 9 min of SB (OR=1.31; 95% CI 0.09 to 2.50), 7 min of LIPA (1.27; 0.07 to 2.46) or 7 min of sleep (1.20; 0.01 to 2.39).

CONCLUSIONS

Relative to time spent in other behaviours, greater MVPA and SB was associated with higher cognitive scores. Loss of MVPA time, given its smaller relative amount, appears most deleterious. Efforts should be made to preserve MVPA time, or reinforce it in place of other behaviours.

The Relationships of Dentition, Use of Dental Prothesis and Oral Health Problems with Frailty, Disability and Diet Quality: Results from Population-Based Studies of Older Adults from the UK and USA

OBJECTIVES

This study examined the relationships of dental status, use and types of dental prothesis and oral health problems, individually and combined, with diet quality, frailty and disability in two population-based studies of older adults.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Men form the British Regional Heart Study (BRHS) (aged 85±4 years in 2018; n=1013) and Men and Women from the Health, Aging, and Body Composition (HABC) Study (aged 75±3 years in 1998-99; n=1975).

MEASUREMENTS

Physical and dental examinations and questionnaires were collected with data available for dental status, oral problems related to eating, diet quality, Fried frailty phenotype, disability based on mobility limitations, and activities of daily living (ADL). The associations of dental status and oral health problems, individually and combined, with risk of frailty and disability were quantified. The relationship with diet quality was also assessed.

RESULTS

In the BRHS, but not HABC Study, impaired natural dentition without the use of dentures was associated with frailty independently. This relationship was only established in the same group in those with oral problems (OR=3.24; 95% CI: 1.30-8.03). In the HABC Study, functional dentition with oral health problems was associated with greater risk of frailty (OR=2.21; 95% CI: 1.18-4.15). In both studies those who wore a full or partial denture in one or more jaw who reported oral problems were more likely to have disability. There was no association with diet quality in these groups.

CONCLUSION

Older adults with impaired dentition even who use dentures who experience self-report oral problems related to eating may be at increased risk of frailty and disability. Further research is needed to establish whether improving oral problems could potentially reduce the occurrence of frailty and disability.

Mild-to-Moderate Kidney Dysfunction and Cardiovascular Disease: Observational and Mendelian Randomization Analyses

BACKGROUND

End-stage renal disease is associated with a high risk of cardiovascular events. It is unknown, however, whether mild-to-moderate kidney dysfunction is causally related to coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke.

METHODS

Observational analyses were conducted using individual-level data from 4 population data sources (Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, EPIC-CVD [European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Cardiovascular Disease Study], Million Veteran Program, and UK Biobank), comprising 648 135 participants with no history of cardiovascular disease or diabetes at baseline, yielding 42 858 and 15 693 incident CHD and stroke events, respectively, during 6.8 million person-years of follow-up. Using a genetic risk score of 218 variants for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), we conducted Mendelian randomization analyses involving 413 718 participants (25 917 CHD and 8622 strokes) in EPIC-CVD, Million Veteran Program, and UK Biobank.

RESULTS

There were U-shaped observational associations of creatinine-based eGFR with CHD and stroke, with higher risk in participants with eGFR values <60 or >105 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2, compared with those with eGFR between 60 and 105 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2. Mendelian randomization analyses for CHD showed an association among participants with eGFR <60 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2, with a 14% (95% CI, 3%-27%) higher CHD risk per 5 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2 lower genetically predicted eGFR, but not for those with eGFR >105 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2. Results were not materially different after adjustment for factors associated with the eGFR genetic risk score, such as lipoprotein(a), triglycerides, hemoglobin A1c, and blood pressure. Mendelian randomization results for stroke were nonsignificant but broadly similar to those for CHD.

CONCLUSIONS

In people without manifest cardiovascular disease or diabetes, mild-to-moderate kidney dysfunction is causally related to risk of CHD, highlighting the potential value of preventive approaches that preserve and modulate kidney function.

Haematological variables and risk of future venous thromboembolism in the British Regional Heart Study on men. Combined D-dimer and APTT as a predictive test for thromboembolism?

We examined the associations between haematological and inflammatory variables with future venous thromboembolism (VTE), in 3494 men aged 60-79 years, with no previous history of VTE or myocardial infarction, who were not receiving oral anticoagulants. After a mean follow-up period of 18 years, there were 149 confirmed cases of fatal or non-fatal VTE (deep vein thrombosis and/or pulmonary embolism). Among classical cardiovascular risk factors, only obesity and cigarette smoking were associated with VTE risk. After adjustment for age, obesity and smoking, VTE risk was associated with coagulation factor VIII, factor IX, von Willebrand factor (VWF), activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), and fibrin D-dimer. Hazard ratios (95% CI) for top to bottom quarters (bottom to top for APTT), were respectively 2.17 (1.37, 3.44), 2.15 (1.30, 3.53), 2.02 (1.27, 3.22), 2.43 (1.47, 4.02) and 3.62 (2.18, 6.08). The 11% of men with both the shortest APTT and highest D-dimer combined had a 5.02 (2.37, 10.62) higher risk of VTE. VTE risk was not associated with fibrinogen, factor VII or activated protein C resistance; full blood count variables or with inflammatory markers, plasma viscosity, C-reactive protein or interleukin-6. The combination of D-dimer and APTT merits evaluation as an adjunct to VTE risk prediction scores.

Associations between inflammation, coagulation, cardiac strain and injury, and subclinical vascular disease with frailty in older men: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Inflammation, coagulation activation, endothelial dysfunction and subclinical vascular disease are cross-sectionally associated with frailty. Cardiac-specific biomarkers are less-well characterised. We assessed associations between these and frailty, in men with, and without, cardiovascular disease (CVD).

METHODS

Cross-sectional analysis of 1096 men without, and 303 with, CVD, aged 71-92, from the British Regional Heart Study. Multinominal logistic regression was performed to examine the associations between frailty status (robust/pre-frail/frail) and, separately, C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), tissue plasminogen activator (tPA), D-dimer, von Willebrand factor (vWF), high-sensitivity cardiac troponin-T (hs-cTnT), N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) (all natural log-transformed), and, in men without CVD, carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT), carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (cfPWV), carotid distensibility coefficient (DC), and ankle-brachial pressure index (ABPI), adjusted for age, renal function, BMI, social class, smoking, polypharmacy, cognition, multimorbidity and systolic blood pressure. Explanatory variables with p < 0.05 were carried forward into mutually-adjusted analysis.

RESULTS

In men without CVD, higher CRP, IL-6, vWF, tPA, hs-cTnT, NT-proBNP, cfPWV, and lower DC were significantly associated with frailty; mutually-adjusted, log IL-6 (OR for frailty = 2.02, 95%CI 1.38-2.95), log hs-cTnT (OR = 1.95, 95%CI 1.24-3.05) and DC (OR = 0.92, 95%CI 0.86-0.99) retained associations. In men with CVD, higher CRP, IL-6, and hs-cTnT, but not vWF, tPA, NT-proBNP or D-dimer, were significantly associated with frailty; mutually-adjusted, log hs-cTnT (OR 3.82, 95%CI 1.84-7.95) retained a significant association.

CONCLUSIONS

In older men, biomarkers of myocardial injury are associated with frailty. Inflammation is associated with frailty in men without CVD. Carotid artery stiffness is associated with frailty in men without CVD, independently of these biomarkers.

Vitamin D deficiency, impaired lung function and total and respiratory mortality in a cohort of older men: cross-sectional and prospective findings from The British Regional Heart Study

OBJECTIVES

Vitamin D deficiency is associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We examined the cross-sectional association between 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) and lung function impairment and assessed whether vitamin D deficiency is related to long-term mortality in those with impaired lung function.

DESIGN

Prospective study SETTING: General practices in the UK.

PARTICIPANTS

3575 men aged 60-79 years with no prevalent heart failure.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Airway obstruction and mortality. The Global Initiative on Obstructive Lung diseases (GOLD) spirometry criteria was used to define airway obstruction.

RESULTS

During the follow-up period of 20 years, there were 2327 deaths (114 COPD deaths). Vitamin D deficiency was defined as serum 25(OH)D levels<10 ng/mL; insufficiency as 25(OH)D 10-19 ng/mL; sufficient as 25(OH)D>20 ng/mL. In cross-sectional analysis, vitamin D deficiency was more prevalent in those with moderate COPD (FEV/FVC <70% and FEV₁ 50 to <80%; FEV₁, forced expiratory volume in 1 s and FVC, forced vital capacity) and severe COPD (FEV/FVC <70% and FEV₁ <50%) but not in those with mild COPD (FEV/FVC <70% and FEV₁>80%) or restrictive lung disease (FEV₁/FVC >70% and FVC <80%) compared with men with normal lung function . Vitamin D deficiency was associated with increased risk of total and respiratory mortality in both men with COPD and men with restrictive lung disease after adjustment for confounders and inflammation. The adjusted HRs (95% CI) for total mortality comparing levels of 25(OH)D<10 ng/mL to 25(OH)D>=20 ng/mL were 1.39 (1.10 to 1.75), 1.52 (1.17 to 1.98), 1.58 (1.17 to 2.14) and 1.39 (0.83 to 2.33) for those with no lung impairment, restrictive lung function, mild/moderate COPD and severe COPD, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Men with COPD were more likely to be vitamin D deficient than those with normal lung function. Vitamin D deficiency is associated with increased all-cause mortality in older men with no lung impairment as well as in those with restrictive or obstructive lung impairment.

Associations between inflammation, cardiovascular biomarkers and incident frailty: the British Regional Heart Study

Introduction

cardiovascular disease (CVD) and chronic inflammation are implicated in the development of frailty. Longitudinal analyses of inflammatory markers, biomarkers of cardiac dysfunction and incidence of frailty are limited.

Methods

in the British Regional Heart Study, 1,225 robust or pre-frail men aged 71–92 years underwent a baseline examination, with questionnaire-based frailty assessment after 3 years. Frailty definitions were based on the Fried phenotype. Associations between incident frailty and biomarkers of cardiac dysfunction (high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT), N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP)) and inflammation (C-reactive protein (CRP) and interleukin-6 (IL-6)) were examined, by tertile, with the lowest as reference.

Results

follow-up data were available for 981 men. Ninety one became frail. Adjusted for age, pre-frailty, prevalent and incident CVD, comorbidity, polypharmacy and socioeconomic status, IL-6 (third tertile OR 2.36, 95% CI 1.07–5.17) and hs-cTnT (third tertile OR 2.24, 95% CI 1.03–4.90) were associated with increased odds of frailty. CRP (third tertile OR 1.83, 95% CI 0.97–4.08) and NT-proBNP (second tertile OR 0.48, 95% CI 0.23–1.01) showed no significant association with incident frailty. The top tertiles of CRP, IL-6, hscTnT and NT-proBNP were strongly associated with mortality prior to follow-up.

Conclusion

IL-6 is associated with incident frailty, supporting the prevailing argument that inflammation is involved in the pathogenesis of frailty. Cardiomyocyte injury may be associated with frailty risk. Associations between elevated CRP and frailty cannot be fully discounted; NT-proBNP may have a non-linear relationship with incident frailty. CRP, IL-6, hs-cTnT and NT-proBNP are vulnerable to survivorship bias.

Subclinical cardiovascular disease and risk of incident frailty: The British Regional Heart Study

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Subclinical cardiovascular disease (CVD) is cross-sectionally associated with frailty, but the relationship between subclinical CVD and incident frailty has not been reported. We aimed to assess this prospective association.

DESIGN

Longitudinal analysis of data from the British Regional Heart Study, a prospective cohort study.

PARTICIPANTS

1057 men, aged 71-92 years, robust or pre-frail at baseline, and without a clinical diagnosis of CVD.

MEASUREMENTS

Participants underwent baseline measurement of carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (cfPWV), carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT), carotid distensibility coefficient (DC), and ankle-brachial pressure index (ABPI), and had questionnaire-based frailty assessment after three years. Frailty status was based on the Fried phenotype. Multivariate logistic regressions examined associations between incident frailty and tertile of cfPWV, CIMT, DC, and ABPI group (<0.9, 0.9-1.4, ≥1.4).

RESULTS

865 men were examined and completed the 3 year follow-up questionnaire, of whom 78 became frail. Adjusted for age, prefrailty, body mass index, diabetes, smoking, atrial fibrillation, blood pressure, renal function, and incident CVD, higher CIMT was associated with greater odds of incident frailty (2nd tertile OR 1.62, 95% CI 0.78-3.35, 3rd tertile OR 2.61, 95% CI 1.30-5.23, p = 0.007, trend p = 0.006). cfPWV showed a weaker, non-significant association (2nd tertile OR 1.79, 95% CI 0.85-3.78, 3rd tertile OR 1.73, OR 0.81-3.72, p = 0.16, trend p = 0.20). There was no clear association between incident frailty and DC or ABPI. In subgroup analyses, CIMT was significantly associated with incident frailty in men ≥80 years (3rd tertile OR 6.99, 95%CI 1.42-34.5), but not in men aged 75-80 or < 75 years.

CONCLUSION

Subclinical CVD, as measured by CIMT, is associated with greater risk of incident frailty in older men over three year follow-up, independent of the development of clinically-apparent stroke, heart failure, or myocardial infarction, and may be a modifiable risk factor for frailty. This association may be stronger in very old age.

Oral health and all-cause, cardiovascular disease, and respiratory mortality in older people in the UK and USA

Preventing deterioration of oral health in older age can be crucial for survival. We aimed to examine associations of oral health problems with all-cause, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and respiratory mortality in older people. We used cohort data from the British Regional Health Study (BRHS) (N = 2147, 71-92 years), and the Health, Aging and Body Composition (HABC) Study (USA) (N = 3075, 71-80 years). Follow-up was 9 years (BRHS) and 15 years (HABC Study). Oral health comprised tooth loss, periodontal disease, dry mouth, and self-rated oral health. Cox regression was performed for all-cause mortality, competing risks for CVD mortality, and accelerated failure time models for respiratory mortality. In the BRHS, tooth loss was associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.59, 95% CI 1.09, 2.31). In the HABC Study, tooth loss, dry mouth, and having ≥ 3 oral problems were associated with all-cause mortality; periodontal disease was associated with increased CVD mortality (subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR) = 1.49, 95% CI 1.01, 2.20); tooth loss, and accumulation of oral problems were associated with high respiratory mortality (tooth loss, time ratio (TR) = 0.73, 95% CI 0.54, 0.98). Findings suggest that poor oral health is associated with mortality. Results highlight the importance of improving oral health to lengthen survival in older age.

Poor oral health and the association with diet quality and intake in older people in two studies in the UK and USA

We aimed to investigate the associations of poor oral health cross-sectionally with diet quality and intake in older people. We also examined whether change in diet quality is associated with oral health problems. Data from the British Regional Heart Study (BRHS) comprising British males aged 71-92 years and the Health, Aging and Body Composition (HABC) Study comprising American males and females aged 71-80 years were used. Dental data included tooth loss, periodontal disease, dry mouth and self-rated oral health. Dietary data included diet quality (based on Elderly Dietary Index (BRHS) and Healthy Eating Score (HABC Study)) and several nutrients. In the BRHS, change in diet quality over 10 years (1998-2000 to 2010-2012) was also assessed. In the BRHS, tooth loss, fair/poor self-rated oral health and accumulation of oral health problems were associated with poor diet quality, after adjustment. Similar associations were reported for high intake of processed meat. Poor oral health was associated with the top quartile of percentage of energy content from saturated fat (self-rated oral health, OR 1·34, 95 % CI 1·02, 1·77). In the HABC Study, no significant associations were observed for diet quality after adjustment. Periodontal disease was associated with the top quartile of percentage of energy content from saturated fat (OR 1·48, 95 % CI 1·09, 2·01). In the BRHS, persistent low diet quality was associated with higher risk of tooth loss and accumulation of oral health problems. Older individuals with oral health problems had poorer diets and consumed fewer nutrient-rich foods. Persistent poor diet quality was associated with oral health problems later in life.

Adult height and incidence of atrial fibrillation and heart failure in older men: The British Regional Heart Study

Aims

Taller stature has been associated with increased risk of atrial fibrillation (AF). AF and heart failure (HF) often co-occur but the association between height and risk of HF in older adults has not been well studied. We have examined the association between height and incident AF and incident HF in older adults.

Methods

Prospective study of 3346 men aged 60–79 years with no diagnosed HF, myocardial infarction or stroke at baseline (1998–2000) followed up for a mean period of 16 years, in whom there were 294 incident HF cases and 456 incident AF. Men were divided into 5 height groups: <168.2, 168.2–172.5, 172.6–176.9, 177.0–183.0 and >183.0 cms based on the 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th centiles distribution of height.

Results

CVD risk factors tended to decrease with increasing height but a positive association was seen between height and electrocardiographic QRS duration and incident AF. Both short stature (<168.2 cm) and tall stature (>183.0 cm) was associated with significantly increased risk of HF in age-adjusted analysis compared to those in the second height quartile [HR (95 %CI) = 1.62 (1.15, 2.26) and 2.04 (1.23, 3.39) respectively]. In short men the increased risk remained after adjustment for adverse CVD risk factors; in tall men the association was largely associated with AF and QRS duration.

Conclusion

Tall stature is associated with significantly increased risk of AF leading to increased risk of HF. Short stature was associated with increased HF risk which was not explained by known adverse CVD risk factors.

Frailty and incident heart failure in older men: the British Regional Heart Study

OBJECTIVE

Frailty and heart failure (HF) are cross-sectionally associated. Published longitudinal data are very limited. We sought to investigate associations between frailty and incident HF.

METHODS

Prospective study of 1722 men, examined at age 72-91 years. Scores based on the Fried phenotype, Gill index and a novel frailty score, based on the Health Ageing and Body Composition Battery, incorporating slow walking speed, low chair-stand time and subjective difficulty with balance, were calculated. Associations between these scores and incident HF were analysed with Cox proportional hazard modelling.

RESULTS

1445 men with frailty data and without prevalent HF were included. 99 developed HF (mean follow-up 6.1 years). Men scoring 3/3 on our novel frailty score had elevated risk of incident HF (HR 2.77, 95% CI 1.25 to 6.15), which persisted after adjustment for established risk factors and interleukin-6 (HR 3.14, 95% CI 1.35 to 7.31). This risk remained increased, although attenuated, after excluding HF events within 2 years of baseline (HR 2.05, 95% CI 0.61 to 6.92). The frailty phenotype showed a non-significant association with HF (age-adjusted HR 1.92, 95% CI 0.99 to 3.73), which was further attenuated after adjustment for prevalent coronary heart disease and Body mass index (HR 1.60, 95% CI 0.81 to 3.15). Gill-type scores were weakly associated with HF risk after these adjustments (HR 1.31, 95% CI 0.47 to 3.70).

CONCLUSION

In these older men, the combination of slow walk speed, low sit-stand time and balance problems were associated with high risk of incident HF, independent of established risk factors and inflammatory markers. However, undiagnosed HF at baseline may still be a confounder. There is a differential association between aspects of the frailty phenotype and incident HF.

Genome-wide association study of circulating interleukin 6 levels identifies novel loci

Interleukin 6 (IL-6) is a multifunctional cytokine with both pro- and anti-inflammatory properties with a heritability estimate of up to 61%. The circulating levels of IL-6 in blood have been associated with an increased risk of complex disease pathogenesis. We conducted a two-staged, discovery and replication meta genome-wide association study (GWAS) of circulating serum IL-6 levels comprising up to 67 428 (ndiscovery = 52 654 and nreplication = 14 774) individuals of European ancestry. The inverse variance fixed effects based discovery meta-analysis, followed by replication led to the identification of two independent loci, IL1F10/IL1RN rs6734238 on chromosome (Chr) 2q14, (Pcombined = 1.8 × 10-11), HLA-DRB1/DRB5 rs660895 on Chr6p21 (Pcombined = 1.5 × 10-10) in the combined meta-analyses of all samples. We also replicated the IL6R rs4537545 locus on Chr1q21 (Pcombined = 1.2 × 10-122). Our study identifies novel loci for circulating IL-6 levels uncovering new immunological and inflammatory pathways that may influence IL-6 pathobiology.