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Kosti A, Borakati A, Varma A, Gupta A, Mustafa A, Hakeem A, Quddus A, Sahl AB, Beniwal A, Adesuyi A, Krzak AM, Brooks A, Frampton A, Gadhvi A, Talbot A, Elnogoomi A, Mahgoub A, Naqvi A, Pervez A, Bodla AS, Taha A, Tawfik A, Prabhu A, Puri A, Belgaumkar A, Gupta A, McCrorie A, Findlay A, Healey A, De Prendergast A, Farrugia A, Dosis A, Adiamah A, Sallam A, Wong A, Bradley A, Martin A, Collins A, Awan A, Bond A, Koh A, Kourdouli A, Patel AG, Dhannoon A, Khalil A, Banerjee A, Khan A, Elserafy A, Alamassi A, Owen A, Benjafield A, Zuccarrelli A, Luhmann A, Jones A, Kennedy-Dalby A, Smith AM, Kaul A, Kumar A, White A, Baker A, Minicozzi A, Bardoli A, Golpe AL, Manzelli A, Sivakumar A, Saha A, Shajpal A, Lango A, Cotton A, Nair A, Brown A, Menon A, Tandon A, Afza A, Hassan A, Shamali A, Khalid A, Regan A, Piramanayagam B, Oyewole B, Ibrahim B, Murphy B, Clayton B, Jenkins B, Kumar B, Rybinski B, Khor BY, Davidson BR, Lees B, Blacklock C, Johnstone C, Salinas CH, Boven C, Wolstenholme C, Chin C, Gilmore C, Sharp C, Walker C, Harris C, Khanna C, Ferguson C, Kyriakides C, Bee C, Currow C, Parmar C, Collins C, Halloran C, Smart CJ, Neophytou C, Delaney C, Anele C, Heugh C, Choh CTP, Kenington C, Wyatt C, Borg CM, Mole D, Arumugam D, Gunia D, Porter D, Berry D, Griffith D, Hou D, Longbotham D, Mitton D, Strachan D, Di Mauro D, Worku D, Heaphy D, Dunne D, Yeung D, Arambepola D, Leswas DA, Pournaras DJ, Damaskos D, Saleh D, Osilli D, Pearman D, Whitelaw D, Haq EU, Mack E, Spurring E, Jamieson E, Lenzi E, Gemmill E, Gammeri E, Bota E, Britton E, Farrow E, Lloyd E, Moran E, Itobi E, Craig E, Tanaka E, Chohda E, Muhammad FU, Youssef F, Roslan F, Amir F, Froghi F, Di Franco F, Abbadessa F, DiMaggio F, Gurung G, Faulkner G, Choa G, Kerans G, Davis GN, Galanopoulos G, Karagiannidis G, McCabe G, Mohammadi-Zaniani G, Nawaz G, Van Boxel G, Bond-Smith G, Tierney GM, Muthukumarasamy G, Grey G, Wong G, Finch G, Khan H, Bourne H, Javanmard-Emamghissi H, Murray H, Rottenburg H, Wright H, Khalil H, Spiers HVM, Bashiti H, Shanti H, Ebied H, Ng HJ, Hamid HKS, Kim H, Wilson I, Rajendran I, Gerogiannis I, Patel I, El-Abbassy I, Burridge I, Caldwll J, Jackman J, Clark J, Duncan J, Milburn J, O’Kelly J, Olivier J, Rink J, Royle J, Rai J, Latif J, Ahmad J, Maliyil J, Carr J, Coles J, McGarry J, Apollos J, Lim J, Gray J, Thomas J, Bennett J, Findlay J, Spearman J, Young J, Lund JN, Meilak J, Alfred J, Welsh J, Chan JH, Martin J, Patel K, Ko KYK, Isand K, Razi K, Sarathy K, Powezka K, Foster K, Peleki K, Bevan K, Fox K, Edwards K, Larsen K, Spellar K, Oh KE, Kong K, Brown K, Roberts KJ, Seymour K, Beatson K, Etherson K, Willis K, Mann K, Nizami K, Rajput K, Lavery L, Sawdon L, Nip L, Al-Hamed L, Fagan L, Watton L, Saint-Grant AL, Convie L, Girard LP, Huppler L, Marsh L, Seretny L, Newton L, Buksh M, Sallam M, Mathew M, Prasanth MN, Nayar M, Wijeyaratne M, Hollyman M, Ransome M, Popa M, Galea M, Taylor M, Gismondi M, Michel M, Wadley M, Al-Azzawi M, Claxton M, Kuzman M, Bonomaully M, Newman M, Bhandari M, Courtney M, Jones M, Rarity M, Wilson M, Ebraheem M, Elnaghi M, Mohamed MSN, Al-Hijaji M, Al-Rashedy M, Qayum MK, Zourob M, Gaber M, Rao M, Islam MA, Rashid MU, Zafar M, Naqvi M, Ahmad MN, Telfah M, Merali N, Hanbali N, Gulnaz N, Kumar N, Husain N, Angamuthu N, Murali N, Kirmani N, Assaf N, Doshi N, Shah NS, Basra N, Menezes N, Dai N, Schuijtvlot N, Kansal N, Chidumije N, Yassin N, Babalola O, Oyende O, Williams O, Pawlik O, O'Connor O, Jalil OA, Ryska O, Vaz O, Sarmah P, Jayawardena P, Patel P, Hart P, Cromwell P, Manby P, Marriott P, Needham P, Ghaneh P, Rao PKD, Eves P, Coe PO, May-Miller P, Szatmary P, Ireland P, Seta P, Ravi P, Janardhanan P, Patil P, Mistry P, Heer P, Patel P, Nunes Q, Ain Q, Clifford R, Brindle R, Lee RXN, Lim RQH, Rahman R, Kumar RM, Lunevicius R, Mukherjee R, Lahiri R, Behmida R, Rajebhosale R, Levy R, Chhabra R, Oliphant R, Freeman R, Jones RM, Elkalbash R, Brignall R, Bell R, Byrom R, Laing RW, Patel R, Buhain R, Clark R, Sutton R, Presa R, Lawther R, Patel R, Zakeri R, Mashar R, Wei R, Baron R, Tasleem S, Kadambot SS, Azam S, Wajed S, Ali S, Body S, Saeed S, Bandyopadhyay S, Mohamed S, Pandanaboyana S, Hassasing S, Dyer S, Small S, Seeralakandapalan S, Arumugam S, Chakravartty S, Ong SL, Ooi SZY, Nazir S, Zafar S, Shirazi S, Bharucha S, Majid S, Ahmed S, Rajamanickam SK, Albalkiny S, Ng S, Chowdhury S, Yahia S, Handa S, Fallis S, Fisher S, Jones S, Phillips S, Mitra S, Aroori S, Thanki S, Rozwadowski S, Tucker S, Conroy S, Barman S, Bhat S, McCallion S, Knight SR, Tezas S, van Laarhoven S, Cowie S, Rao S, Sellahewa S, Bhatti S, Kaistha S, Moug SJ, Argyropoulos S, Virupaksha S, Difford T, Shikh-Bahaei T, Saafan T, Lo T, Magro T, Gala T, Katbeh T, Athwal T, Lo T, Fraser T, Anyomih T, Chase TJG, Walker T, Ward T, Gallagher TK, Richardson T, Wiggins T, Ali U, Patnam V, Kanakala V, Beynon V, Hudson VE, Morrison-Jones V, Korwar V, Massella V, Parekh V, Ng V, Toh WH, Toh W, Hawkins W, Cambridge W, Harrison W, Tan YY, Aal YA, Malam Y, Toumi Z, Khaddar ZA, Bleything Z. PANC Study (Pancreatitis: A National Cohort Study): national cohort study examining the first 30 days from presentation of acute pancreatitis in the UK. BJS Open 2023; 7:zrad008. [PMID: 37161673 PMCID: PMC10170253 DOI: 10.1093/bjsopen/zrad008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/12/2022] [Revised: 12/01/2022] [Accepted: 01/04/2023] [Indexed: 05/11/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Acute pancreatitis is a common, yet complex, emergency surgical presentation. Multiple guidelines exist and management can vary significantly. The aim of this first UK, multicentre, prospective cohort study was to assess the variation in management of acute pancreatitis to guide resource planning and optimize treatment. METHODS All patients aged greater than or equal to 18 years presenting with acute pancreatitis, as per the Atlanta criteria, from March to April 2021 were eligible for inclusion and followed up for 30 days. Anonymized data were uploaded to a secure electronic database in line with local governance approvals. RESULTS A total of 113 hospitals contributed data on 2580 patients, with an equal sex distribution and a mean age of 57 years. The aetiology was gallstones in 50.6 per cent, with idiopathic the next most common (22.4 per cent). In addition to the 7.6 per cent with a diagnosis of chronic pancreatitis, 20.1 per cent of patients had a previous episode of acute pancreatitis. One in 20 patients were classed as having severe pancreatitis, as per the Atlanta criteria. The overall mortality rate was 2.3 per cent at 30 days, but rose to one in three in the severe group. Predictors of death included male sex, increased age, and frailty; previous acute pancreatitis and gallstones as aetiologies were protective. Smoking status and body mass index did not affect death. CONCLUSION Most patients presenting with acute pancreatitis have a mild, self-limiting disease. Rates of patients with idiopathic pancreatitis are high. Recurrent attacks of pancreatitis are common, but are likely to have reduced risk of death on subsequent admissions.
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Kouli O, Murray V, Bhatia S, Cambridge WA, Kawka M, Shafi S, Knight SR, Kamarajah SK, McLean KA, Glasbey JC, Khaw RA, Ahmed W, Akhbari M, Baker D, Borakati A, Mills E, Thavayogan R, Yasin I, Raubenheimer K, Ridley W, Sarrami M, Zhang G, Egoroff N, Pockney P, Richards T, Bhangu A, Creagh-Brown B, Edwards M, Harrison EM, Lee M, Nepogodiev D, Pinkney T, Pearse R, Smart N, Vohra R, Sohrabi C, Jamieson A, Nguyen M, Rahman A, English C, Tincknell L, Kakodkar P, Kwek I, Punjabi N, Burns J, Varghese S, Erotocritou M, McGuckin S, Vayalapra S, Dominguez E, Moneim J, Salehi M, Tan HL, Yoong A, Zhu L, Seale B, Nowinka Z, Patel N, Chrisp B, Harris J, Maleyko I, Muneeb F, Gough M, James CE, Skan O, Chowdhury A, Rebuffa N, Khan H, Down B, Fatimah Hussain Q, Adams M, Bailey A, Cullen G, Fu YXJ, McClement B, Taylor A, Aitken S, Bachelet B, Brousse de Gersigny J, Chang C, Khehra B, Lahoud N, Lee Solano M, Louca M, Rozenbroek P, Rozitis E, Agbinya N, Anderson E, Arwi G, Barry I, Batchelor C, Chong T, Choo LY, Clark L, Daniels M, Goh J, Handa A, Hanna J, Huynh L, Jeon A, Kanbour A, Lee A, Lee J, Lee T, Leigh J, Ly D, McGregor F, Moss J, Nejatian M, O'Loughlin E, Ramos I, Sanchez B, Shrivathsa A, Sincari A, Sobhi S, Swart R, Trimboli J, Wignall P, Bourke E, Chong A, Clayton S, Dawson A, Hardy E, Iqbal R, Le L, Mao S, Marinelli I, Metcalfe H, Panicker D, R HH, Ridgway S, Tan HH, Thong S, Van M, Woon S, Woon-Shoo-Tong XS, Yu S, Ali K, Chee J, Chiu C, Chow YW, Duller A, Nagappan P, Ng S, Selvanathan M, Sheridan C, Temple M, Do JE, Dudi-Venkata NN, Humphries E, Li L, Mansour LT, Massy-Westropp C, Fang B, Farbood K, Hong H, Huang Y, Joan M, Koh C, Liu YHA, Mahajan T, Muller E, Park R, Tanudisastro M, Wu JJG, Chopra P, Giang S, Radcliffe S, Thach P, Wallace D, Wilkes A, Chinta SH, Li J, Phan J, Rahman F, Segaran A, Shannon J, Zhang M, Adams N, Bonte A, Choudhry A, Colterjohn N, Croyle JA, Donohue J, Feighery A, Keane A, McNamara D, Munir K, Roche D, Sabnani R, Seligman D, Sharma S, Stickney Z, Suchy H, Tan R, Yordi S, Ahmed I, Aranha M, El Sabawy D, Garwood P, Harnett M, Holohan R, Howard R, Kayyal Y, Krakoski N, Lupo M, McGilberry W, Nepon H, Scoleri Y, Urbina C, Ahmad Fuad MF, Ahmed O, Jaswantlal D, Kelly E, Khan MHT, Naidu D, Neo WX, O'Neill R, Sugrue M, Abbas JD, Abdul-Fattah S, Azlan A, Barry K, Idris NS, Kaka N, Mc Dermott D, Mohammad Nasir MN, Mozo M, Rehal A, Shaikh Yousef M, Wong RH, Curran E, Gardner M, Hogan A, Julka R, Lasser G, Ní Chorráin N, Ting J, Browne R, George S, Janjua Z, Leung Shing V, Megally M, Murphy S, Ravenscroft L, Vedadi A, Vyas V, Bryan A, Sheikh A, Ubhi J, Vannelli K, Vawda A, Adeusi L, Doherty C, Fitzgerald C, Gallagher H, Gill P, Hamza H, Hogan M, Kelly S, Larry J, Lynch P, Mazeni NA, O'Connell R, O'Loghlin R, Singh K, Abbas Syed R, Ali A, Alkandari B, Arnold A, Arora E, Azam R, Breathnach C, Cheema J, Compton M, Curran S, Elliott JA, Jayasamraj O, Mohammed N, Noone A, Pal A, Pandey S, Quinn P, Sheridan R, Siew L, Tan EP, Tio SW, Toh VTR, Walsh M, Yap C, Yassa J, Young T, Agarwal N, Almoosawy SA, Bowen K, Bruce D, Connachan R, Cook A, Daniell A, Elliott M, Fung HKF, Irving A, Laurie S, Lee YJ, Lim ZX, Maddineni S, McClenaghan RE, Muthuganesan V, Ravichandran P, Roberts N, Shaji S, Solt S, Toshney E, Arnold C, Baker O, Belais F, Bojanic C, Byrne M, Chau CYC, De Soysa S, Eldridge M, Fairey M, Fearnhead N, Guéroult A, Ho JSY, Joshi K, Kadiyala N, Khalid S, Khan F, Kumar K, Lewis E, Magee J, Manetta-Jones D, Mann S, McKeown L, Mitrofan C, Mohamed T, Monnickendam A, Ng AYKC, Ortu A, Patel M, Pope T, Pressling S, Purohit K, Saji S, Shah Foridi J, Shah R, Siddiqui SS, Surman K, Utukuri M, Varghese A, Williams CYK, Yang JJ, Billson E, Cheah E, Holmes P, Hussain S, Murdock D, Nicholls A, Patel P, Ramana G, Saleki M, Spence H, Thomas D, Yu C, Abousamra M, Brown C, Conti I, Donnelly A, Durand M, French N, Goan R, O'Kane E, Rubinchik P, Gardiner H, Kempf B, Lai YL, Matthews H, Minford E, Rafferty C, Reid C, Sheridan N, Al Bahri T, Bhoombla N, Rao BM, Titu L, Chatha S, Field C, Gandhi T, Gulati R, Jha R, Jones Sam MT, Karim S, Patel R, Saunders M, Sharma K, Abid S, Heath E, Kurup D, Patel A, Ali M, Cresswell B, Felstead D, Jennings K, Kaluarachchi T, Lazzereschi L, Mayson H, Miah JE, Reinders B, Rosser A, Thomas C, Williams H, Al-Hamid Z, Alsadoun L, Chlubek M, Fernando P, Gaunt E, Gercek Y, Maniar R, Ma R, Matson M, Moore S, Morris A, Nagappan PG, Ratnayake M, Rockall L, Shallcross O, Sinha A, Tan KE, Virdee S, Wenlock R, Donnelly HA, Ghazal R, Hughes I, Liu X, McFadden M, Misbert E, Mogey P, O'Hara A, Peace C, Rainey C, Raja P, Salem M, Salmon J, Tan CH, Alves D, Bahl S, Baker C, Coulthurst J, Koysombat K, Linn T, Rai P, Sharma A, Shergill A, Ahmed M, Ahmed S, Belk LH, Choudhry H, Cummings D, Dixon Y, Dobinson C, Edwards J, Flint J, Franco Da Silva C, Gallie R, Gardener M, Glover T, Greasley M, Hatab A, Howells R, Hussey T, Khan A, Mann A, Morrison H, Ng A, Osmond R, Padmakumar N, Pervaiz F, Prince R, Qureshi A, Sawhney R, Sigurdson B, Stephenson L, Vora K, Zacken A, Cope P, Di Traglia R, Ferarrio I, Hackett N, Healicon R, Horseman L, Lam LI, Meerdink M, Menham D, Murphy R, Nimmo I, Ramaesh A, Rees J, Soame R, Dilaver N, Adebambo D, Brown E, Burt J, Foster K, Kaliyappan L, Knight P, Politis A, Richardson E, Townsend J, Abdi M, Ball M, Easby S, Gill N, Ho E, Iqbal H, Matthews M, Nubi S, Nwokocha JO, Okafor I, Perry G, Sinartio B, Vanukuru N, Walkley D, Welch T, Yates J, Yeshitila N, Bryans K, Campbell B, Gray C, Keys R, Macartney M, Chamberlain G, Khatri A, Kucheria A, Lee STP, Reese G, Roy choudhury J, Tan WYR, Teh JJ, Ting A, Kazi S, Kontovounisios C, Vutipongsatorn K, Amarnath T, Balasubramanian N, Bassett E, Gurung P, Lim J, Panjikkaran A, Sanalla A, Alkoot M, Bacigalupo V, Eardley N, Horton M, Hurry A, Isti C, Maskell P, Nursiah K, Punn G, Salih H, Epanomeritakis E, Foulkes A, Henderson R, Johnston E, McCullough H, McLarnon M, Morrison E, Cheung A, Cho SH, Eriksson F, Hedges J, Low Z, May C, Musto L, Nagi S, Nur S, Salau E, Shabbir S, Thomas MC, Uthayanan L, Vig S, Zaheer M, Zeng G, Ashcroft-Quinn S, Brown R, Hayes J, McConville R, French R, Gilliam A, Sheetal S, Shehzad MU, Bani W, Christie I, Franklyn J, Khan M, Russell J, Smolarek S, Varadarassou R, Ahmed SK, Narayanaswamy S, Sealy J, Shah M, Dodhia V, Manukyan A, O'Hare R, Orbell J, Chung I, Forenc K, Gupta A, Agarwal A, Al Dabbagh A, Bennewith R, Bottomley J, Chu TSM, Chu YYA, Doherty W, Evans B, Hainsworth P, Hosfield T, Li CH, McCullagh I, Mehta A, Thaker A, Thompson B, Virdi A, Walker H, Wilkins E, Dixon C, Hassan MR, Lotca N, Tong KS, Batchelor-Parry H, Chaudhari S, Harris T, Hooper J, Johnson C, Mulvihill C, Nayler J, Olutobi O, Piramanayagam B, Stones K, Sussman M, Weaver C, Alam F, Al Rawi M, Andrew F, Arrayeh A, Azizan N, Hassan A, Iqbal Z, John I, Jones M, Kalake O, Keast M, Nicholas J, Patil A, Powell K, Roberts P, Sabri A, Segue AK, Shah A, Shaik Mohamed SA, Shehadeh A, Shenoy S, Tong A, Upcott M, Vijayasingam D, Anarfi S, Dauncey J, Devindaran A, Havalda P, Komninos G, Mwendwa E, Norman C, Richards J, Urquhart A, Allan J, Cahya E, Hunt H, McWhirter C, Norton R, Roxburgh C, Tan JY, Ali Butt S, Hansdot S, Haq I, Mootien A, Sanchez I, Vainas T, Deliyannis E, Tan M, Vipond M, Chittoor Satish NN, Dattani A, De Carvalho L, Gaston-Grubb M, Karunanithy L, Lowe B, Pace C, Raju K, Roope J, Taylor C, Youssef H, Munro T, Thorn C, Wong KHF, Yunus A, Chawla S, Datta A, Dinesh AA, Field D, Georgi T, Gwozdz A, Hamstead E, Howard N, Isleyen N, Jackson N, Kingdon J, Sagoo KS, Schizas A, Yin L, Aung E, Aung YY, Franklin S, Han SM, Kim WC, Martin Segura A, Rossi M, Ross T, Tirimanna R, Wang B, Zakieh O, Ben-Arzi H, Flach A, Jackson E, Magers S, Olu abara C, Rogers E, Sugden K, Tan H, Veliah S, Walton U, Asif A, Bharwada Y, Bowley D, Broekhuizen A, Cooper L, Evans N, Girdlestone H, Ling C, Mann H, Mehmood N, Mulvenna CL, Rainer N, Trout I, Gujjuri R, Jeyaraman D, Leong E, Singh D, Smith 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Jones O, Killen A, Millo J, Thomas S, Ward J, Wilkins M, Zaki F, Zilber E, Bhavra K, Bilolikar A, Charalambous M, Elawad A, Eleni A, Fawdon R, Gibbins A, Livingstone D, Mala D, Oke SE, Padmakumar D, Patsalides MA, Payne D, Ralphs C, Roney A, Sardar N, Stefanova K, Surti F, Timms R, Tosney G, Bannister J, Clement NS, Cullimore V, Kamal F, Lendor J, McKay J, Mcswiggan J, Minhas N, Seneviratne K, Simeen S, Valverde J, Watson N, Bloom I, Dinh TH, Hirniak J, Joseph R, Kansagra M, Lai CKN, Melamed N, Patel J, Randev J, Sedighi T, Shurovi B, Sodhi J, Vadgama N, Abdulla S, Adabavazeh B, Champion A, Chennupati R, Chu K, Devi S, Haji A, Schulz J, Testa F, Davies P, Gurung B, Howell S, Modi P, Pervaiz A, Zahid M, Abdolrazaghi S, Abi Aoun R, Anjum Z, Bawa G, Bhardwaj R, Brown S, Enver M, Gill D, Gopikrishna D, Gurung D, Kanwal A, Kaushal P, Khanna A, Lovell E, McEvoy C, Mirza M, Nabeel S, Naseem S, Pandya K, Perkins R, Pulakal R, Ray M, Reay C, Reilly S, Round A, Seehra J, Shakeel NM, Singh B, 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H, Sandberg C, Smith H, Al Bakry M, Ashwell W, Bajaj S, Bandyopadhyay D, Browlee O, Burway S, Chand CP, Elsayeh K, Elsharkawi A, Evans E, Ferrin S, Fort-Schaale A, Iacob M, I K, Impelliziere Licastro G, Mankoo AS, Olaniyan T, Otun J, Pereira R, Reddy R, Saeed D, Simmonds O, Singhal G, Tron K, Wickstone C, Williams R, Bradshaw E, De Kock Jewell V, Houlden C, Knight C, Metezai H, Mirza-Davies A, Seymour Z, Spink D, Wischhusen S. Evaluation of prognostic risk models for postoperative pulmonary complications in adult patients undergoing major abdominal surgery: a systematic review and international external validation cohort study. Lancet Digit Health 2022; 4:e520-e531. [PMID: 35750401 DOI: 10.1016/s2589-7500(22)00069-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/15/2021] [Revised: 01/07/2022] [Accepted: 04/06/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Stratifying risk of postoperative pulmonary complications after major abdominal surgery allows clinicians to modify risk through targeted interventions and enhanced monitoring. In this study, we aimed to identify and validate prognostic models against a new consensus definition of postoperative pulmonary complications. METHODS We did a systematic review and international external validation cohort study. The systematic review was done in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We searched MEDLINE and Embase on March 1, 2020, for articles published in English that reported on risk prediction models for postoperative pulmonary complications following abdominal surgery. External validation of existing models was done within a prospective international cohort study of adult patients (≥18 years) undergoing major abdominal surgery. Data were collected between Jan 1, 2019, and April 30, 2019, in the UK, Ireland, and Australia. Discriminative ability and prognostic accuracy summary statistics were compared between models for the 30-day postoperative pulmonary complication rate as defined by the Standardised Endpoints in Perioperative Medicine Core Outcome Measures in Perioperative and Anaesthetic Care (StEP-COMPAC). Model performance was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC). FINDINGS In total, we identified 2903 records from our literature search; of which, 2514 (86·6%) unique records were screened, 121 (4·8%) of 2514 full texts were assessed for eligibility, and 29 unique prognostic models were identified. Nine (31·0%) of 29 models had score development reported only, 19 (65·5%) had undergone internal validation, and only four (13·8%) had been externally validated. Data to validate six eligible models were collected in the international external validation cohort study. Data from 11 591 patients were available, with an overall postoperative pulmonary complication rate of 7·8% (n=903). None of the six models showed good discrimination (defined as AUROCC ≥0·70) for identifying postoperative pulmonary complications, with the Assess Respiratory Risk in Surgical Patients in Catalonia score showing the best discrimination (AUROCC 0·700 [95% CI 0·683-0·717]). INTERPRETATION In the pre-COVID-19 pandemic data, variability in the risk of pulmonary complications (StEP-COMPAC definition) following major abdominal surgery was poorly described by existing prognostication tools. To improve surgical safety during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery and beyond, novel risk stratification tools are required. FUNDING British Journal of Surgery Society.
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