Clinical spectrum of late symptomatic neurosyphilis in China: an 11-year retrospective study

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to describe the clinical features of neurosyphilis in Chinese patients in an attempt to find clinical features that are helpful for the early identification of neurosyphilis.

METHODS

This retrospective study included people with syphilis who visited Shanghai Skin Disease Hospital between January 2010 and December 2020. Lumbar puncture was performed on those who met the inclusion and exclusion criteria. The diagnosis of neurosyphilis was based on clinical and laboratory findings. The parameters were analysed statistically.

RESULTS

Of the 3524 patients with neurosyphilis, 2111 (59.9%) and 1413 (40.1%) were asymptomatic and symptomatic neurosyphilis, respectively. General paresis was the most common type of symptomatic neurosyphilis (46.8%). The clinical manifestations of symptomatic neurosyphilis include psychiatric and neurotic symptoms, among which general paresis predominantly presented as psychiatric symptoms such as affective (66.7%) and memory disorder (72.9%). Tabes dorsalis is often presented as neurotic symptoms. One hundred fifty patients (10.6%) with symptomatic neurosyphilis presented candy signs, a rare and specific neurosyphilis symptom that is common in general paresis. Girdle sensation was presented in 13 patients, mainly with tabes dorsalis, which had not been reported in previous studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Notably, the candy sign is identified as a specific symptom of general paresis, while girdle sensations are highlighted as a particular symptom of tabes dorsalis. This is the largest study describing the clinical spectrum of neurosyphilis since the onset of the penicillin era and could help doctors learn more about the disease. A comprehensive description of the possible clinical manifestations of late symptomatic neurosyphilis, particularly highlighting rare symptoms, can identify suspicious patients and prevent diagnostic delays.

Seroconversion in syphilis screening without positive confirmatory tests points at early infection

INTRODUCTION

The chemiluminescence immunoassay (CLIA) is a widely used screening test for syphilis. A CLIA seroconversion in the absence of a positive line immunoassay (LIA) or rapid plasma reagin (RPR) could indicate either an early incubating syphilis or a false positive result. We aimed to evaluate the diagnostic value of such seroconversions.

METHODS

We retrospectively analysed data of clients visiting the Centre for Sexual Health Amsterdam between July 2013 and August 2021 with a positive CLIA and a negative RPR and negative or indeterminate LIA (at time To), and a preceding visit (T-1) with a negative CLIA <6 months of To ('unconfirmed CLIA seroconversion'). If available, data of follow-up visits (T1) <2 months of To were also included. A syphilis diagnosis was confirmed if darkfield microscopy or PCR for Treponema pallidum was positive at T0 or T1, or if RPR and/or LIA were positive at T1.

RESULTS

We included data of 107 clients with unconfirmed CLIA seroconversion. The value of CLIA seroconversion could not be established in 13 (12.1%) clients. In the remaining 94 clients, the unconfirmed CLIA seroconversion was confirmed as early syphilis in 72 (76.6%) clients and probable syphilis in 6 (6.4%) clients. In 16 (17.0%) clients, the unconfirmed CLIA seroconversion was regarded as a false positive reaction of whom 4 (5.3%) clients had a seroreversion of the CLIA at T1.

CONCLUSION

The majority of unconfirmed CLIA seroconversions represented early syphilis infections. Therefore, additional T. pallidum PCR, a follow-up consultation or early treatment is recommended.

Can laboratory HIV and infectious syphilis data inform future pre-exposure prophylaxis use in women in Ontario, Canada?

OBJECTIVES

Infectious syphilis has been proposed as an indication for HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in women. We explored how many women experienced HIV seroconversion after being diagnosed with syphilis in Ontario between 20 April 2010 and 31 December 2021.

METHODS

Through deterministic linkage of laboratory data at the Public Health Ontario laboratory, which conducts the vast majority of syphilis and HIV testing in Ontario, we quantified the number of females with positive syphilis diagnoses who subsequently exhibited HIV seroconversion between April 2010 and December 2021. New HIV cases were identified by diagnostic serology or HIV viral load test result of ≥20 copies/mL at least 60 days after the positive syphilis test. We report aggregate numbers of women with new laboratory evidence of HIV infection after their first positive syphilis test.

RESULTS

Among 7957 women with positive syphilis tests during the study period, 6554 (82.4%) had linkable HIV serology tests and 133 (1.7%) ever tested HIV positive. With further linkage to viral load data, the number of women who ever had laboratory evidence of HIV infection increased to 184 (2.3%). However, when restricting to women whose first positive HIV test or HIV viral load occurred after their first positive syphilis test, this number decreased to 34 (0.4%). The median (IQR) time between the positive syphilis test and the first laboratory evidence of HIV was 551 (IQR=226-1159) days.

CONCLUSION

Although it is clinically appropriate to recommend HIV PrEP to women with syphilis, Ontario surveillance data suggest that the population-level impact of this strategy on the HIV epidemic in Ontario would have been modest during this 11-year period. Future studies should explore additional ways of prioritising women for PrEP.

Painful proctitis associated with anorectal mpox, syphilis, HSV, LGV, gonorrhoea and Mycoplasma genitalium in a person living with virologically suppressed HIV and vaccinated against mpox

A gay man with well-controlled HIV and vaccinated against mpox presented with severe proctitis. Testing revealed anorectal mpox, herpes simplex virus, lymphogranuloma venereum, Neisseria gonorrhoeae and Mycoplasma genitalium Serology was indicative of infectious syphilis. This case highlights the need to consider a wide range of concurrent sexually transmitted infections in patients with proctitis, including those vaccinated against mpox.

Multicentric evaluation of a specific intrathecal anti-Treponema pallidum IgG index as a diagnostic biomarker of neurosyphilis: results from a retro-prospective case-control study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The diagnosis of neurosyphilis (NS) lacks a true 'gold standard', making the diagnosis challenging while consequences of a misdiagnosis are potentially severe. The aim of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic performance of measuring an antibody index (AI) for the intrathecal synthesis of specific anti-Treponema pallidum (T. pallidum) IgG for the diagnosis of NS.

METHODS

Specific anti-T. pallidum IgG were measured simultaneously in paired cerebrospinal fluid (CSF)-serum samples collected retrospectively and prospectively between 2007 and 2022, from patients suspected of NS, in Switzerland. An AI was calculated to account for blood-brain barrier integrity. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity/specificity and positive/negative predictive values of AI test were estimated. Two NS definitions were used: NS1 included patients with NS suspicion presenting with neurological symptoms and/or acute neurosensory signs, and positive T. Pallidum Hemagglutinations Assay (TPHA)/T. pallidum particle agglutination assay (TPPA) serology and CSF-TPHA/TPPA ≥320, and either CSF-leucocytes >5 cells/mm3 and/or CSF-protein >0.45 g/L and/or a reactive CSF-venereal disease research laboratory (VDRL)/rapid plasma reagin (RPR) test. NS2 included patients with suspected NS presenting with acute ocular and/or otologic symptoms, and positive TPHA/TPPA serology, and a favourable response to NS treatment. Controls were patients diagnosed with any other central nervous system (CNS) pathologies and with positive TPHA/TPPA serology.

RESULTS

The study included 71 NS (43 NS1 and 28 NS2) and 110 controls. With a threshold of ≥1.7, sensitivity and specificity of the specific AI test were 90.7% (CI 77.7 to 97.4) and 100% (CI 96.7 to 100.0), respectively, for NS1 and 14.3% (CI 4 to 32.7) and 100% (CI 96.7 to 100.0) for NS2. In patients suspected of NS with a CNS involvement (NS1 group), NS could be confirmed by the positivity of this specific AI.

CONCLUSIONS

Measurement of an intrathecal synthesis index of specific anti-T. pallidum IgG in patients with CSF inflammatory signs appears to be a valuable diagnostic test. However, in otic or ocular syphilis, presenting few CSF abnormalities, AI is not sufficient alone to confirm NS diagnosis.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Swiss Association of Research Ethics Committees number 2019-00232.

Sexual network characteristics and partnership types among men who have sex with men diagnosed with syphilis, gonorrhoea and/or chlamydia in Lima, Peru

OBJECTIVES

Sexual networks are known to structure sexually transmitted infection (STI) transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM). We sought to estimate the risks of STI diagnosis for various partnership types within these networks.

METHODS

Our cross-sectional survey analysed data from 1376 MSM screened for a partner management intervention in Lima, Peru. Participants were tested for HIV, syphilis, gonorrhoea (NG) and chlamydia (CT) and completed surveys on their demographics, sexual identity/role, HIV status, partnership types and sexual network from the prior 90 days. χ2 and Wilcoxon rank-sum tests compared participants without an STI to those diagnosed with (1) syphilis, (2) NG and/or CT (NG/CT) and (3) syphilis and NG/CT coinfection (coinfection).

RESULTS

40.8% (n=561/1376) of participants were diagnosed with an STI (syphilis: 14.9%, NG/CT: 16.4%, coinfection: 9.5%). 47.9% of all participants were living with HIV and 8.9% were newly diagnosed. A greater proportion of participants with syphilis and coinfection were living with HIV (73.5%, p<0.001; 71.0%, p<0.001) compared with those with NG/CT (47.8%) or no STI (37.8%). Participants with syphilis more often reported sex-on-premises venues (SOPVs) as the location of their last sexual encounter (51.7%, p=0.038) while those with NG/CT tended to meet their last sexual partner online (72.8%, p=0.031). Respondents with coinfection were the only STI group more likely to report transactional sex than participants without an STI (31.3%, p=0.039).

CONCLUSIONS

Sexual networks and partnership types of Peruvian MSM are associated with differential risks for STIs. Participants diagnosed with syphilis tended to meet single-encounter casual partners at SOPV, while MSM with NG/CT were younger and often contacted casual partners online. Coinfection had higher frequency of transactional sex. These findings suggest the potential importance of public health interventions through combined syphilis/HIV screening at SOPV, syphilis screening at routine clinic appointments for MSM living with HIV and directed advertisements and/or access to NG/CT testing through online platforms.

Recent changes in the reporting of STIs in Japan during the COVID-19 pandemic

OBJECTIVES

The COVID-19 pandemic has had variable effects on the rates of STIs reported across the globe. This study sought to assess how the number of STI reports changed during the pandemic in Japan.

METHODS

We used national infectious disease surveillance data from the National Institute of Infectious Diseases (Tokyo, Japan) for the period between January 2013 and December 2021. We compared reported rates of chlamydia, gonorrhoea, condyloma acuminata and genital herpes, as well as total notifications for HIV/AIDS and syphilis during the pandemic versus previous years in Japan. We used a quasi-Poisson regression to determine whether any given week or month between January 2018 and December 2021 had a significant excess or deficit of STIs. Notification values above or below the 95% upper and lower prediction thresholds were considered as statistically significant. The start of the pandemic was defined as January 2020.

RESULTS

Chlamydia generally remained within predicted range during the pandemic period. Reporting of gonorrhoea was significantly higher than expected throughout early-to-mid 2021 but otherwise generally remained within predicted range prior to 2021. Condyloma, herpes and HIV/AIDS reporting were transiently significantly lower than expected throughout the pandemic period, but no significant periods of higher-than-expected reporting were detected. Syphilis showed widespread evidence of significantly lower-than-predicted reporting throughout 2020 but eventually reversed, showing significantly higher-than-predicted reporting in mid-to-late 2021.

CONCLUSIONS

The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with variable changes in the reporting of STIs in Japan. Higher-than-predicted reporting was more likely to be observed in the later phases of the pandemic. These changes may have been attributable to pandemic-related changes in sexual behaviour and decreased STI clinic attendance and testing, but further research on the long-term impact of the pandemic on STIs is necessary.

Improved rapid diagnostic tests to detect syphilis and yaws: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Current rapid tests for syphilis and yaws can detect treponemal and non-treponemal antibodies. We aimed to critically appraise the literature for rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) which can better distinguish an active infection of syphilis or yaws.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis, searching five databases between January 2010 and October 2021 (with an update in July 2022). A generalised linear mixed model was used to conduct a bivariate meta-analysis for the pooled sensitivity and specificity. Heterogeneity was assessed using the I² statistic. We used the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS) to assess the risk of bias and Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations (GRADE) to evaluate the certainty of evidence.

RESULTS

We included 17 studies for meta-analyses. For syphilis, the pooled sensitivity and specificity of the treponemal component were 0.93 (95% CI: 0.86 to 0.97) and 0.98 (95% CI: 0.96 to 0.99), respectively. For the non-treponemal component, the pooled sensitivity and specificity were 0.90 (95% CI: 0.82 to 0.95) and 0.97 (95% CI: 0.92 to 0.99), respectively. For yaws, the pooled sensitivity and specificity of the treponemal component were 0.86 (95% CI: 0.66 to 0.95) and 0.97 (95% CI: 0.94 to 0.99), respectively. For the non-treponemal component, the pooled sensitivity and specificity were 0.80 (95% CI: 0.55 to 0.93) and 0.96 (95% CI: 0.92 to 0.98), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

RDTs that can differentiate between active and previously treated infections could optimise management by providing same-day treatment and reducing unnecessary treatment.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42021279587.

Anal and oral detection of Treponema pallidum in men who have sex with men with early syphilis infection

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to characterise patterns of anal and oral detection of Treponema pallidum among men who have sex with men (MSM) with early syphilis.

METHODS

200 MSM with serologically confirmed primary, secondary and early latent syphilis were tested with T. pallidum polA PCR using an anal canal swab, oral rinse, plus swabs from any anal and oral lesions in a prospective, cross-sectional study. Anal and oral T. pallidum cycle threshold values were compared between subsets of men and according to rapid plasma reagin (RPR) titre.

RESULTS

Of 200 men with early syphilis, 45 and 48 had anal and oral T. pallidum detected, respectively. Cycle threshold values were lower with anal compared with oral T. pallidum whether lesions were present or not. Among 27 and 42 men with anal and oral T. pallidum detected, respectively, and no anal or oral primary lesion, frequency of detection increased with increasing RPR titre, with 95% (25/27) and 98% (41/42) of shedding from respective sites occurring with RPR titres ≥1:16. 6.5% (13/200) of men with syphilis had concurrent detection of T. pallidum from both anal and oral sites: 9/13 with secondary syphilis, 7/9 of whom had anal lesions with a median duration of 30 days (range 7-180 days).

CONCLUSIONS

These data suggest T. pallidum load at the anus is higher than at the oral cavity and that a subset of men with secondary syphilis and prolonged anal lesions may be relatively infectious. Earlier detection and treatment of syphilis, when RPR titres are lower than 1:16, could potentially reduce infectiousness from anal and oral sites.

Clinical and laboratory aspects of condylomata lata lesions of syphilis

OBJECTIVES

Condylomata lata are a less common but distinctive syphilitic lesion. Variable theories as to their nature and origin exist. The aim of this study was to determine the clinical and laboratory characteristics of condylomata lata by determining (1): the most closely aligned stage of syphilis, based on the rapid plasma reagin (RPR) titre; (2) symptom duration and (3) Treponema pallidum PCR cycle threshold (C_T) values, as an indicator of organism load.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study of patients with T. pallidum PCR-positive condylomata lata lesions, attending a clinic in Melbourne, Australia, between 2011 and 2021. Syphilis serology was undertaken and RPR titres compared between condylomata lata, primary and secondary syphilis cases.

RESULTS

51 cases with T. pallidum PCR-positive condylomata lata were included. 41 cases were in men, 40 of whom were men who have sex with men (MSM), and 10 in women. Twelve of 51 (24%) cases were in HIV-positive MSM. Thirty-three of 51 (65%) had other mucocutaneous signs of secondary syphilis; 18 (35%) had no other signs of secondary syphilis. The median RPR titre among the 51 condylomata lata cases was 1:128, compared with the median RPR titre of primary syphilis (1:4) and of secondary syphilis (1:128). The median duration of lesions was 24 (IQR 10-60) days, with no significant difference between those with and without other signs of secondary syphilis (p=0.75). Median C_T values for condylomata lata (C_T=31) and primary syphilis (C_T=31) were significantly lower than for other secondary syphilis lesion types (C_T=33), indicating higher T. pallidum loads for condylomata lata and primary lesions compared with other secondary syphilis lesion types.

DISCUSSION

These findings support condylomata lata as lesions that occur during the secondary stage of syphilis and which are likely to be highly infectious.

Can we screen less frequently for STI among PrEP users? Assessing the effect of biannual STI screening on timing of diagnosis and transmission risk in the AMPrEP Study

BACKGROUND

In many countries, HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) users are screened quarterly for STIs. We assessed the consequences of less frequent STI testing. We also assessed determinants of asymptomatic STI and potential for onward transmission.

METHODS

Using data from the AMPrEP study, we assessed the proportion of syphilis, and genital, anal, and pharyngeal chlamydia and gonorrhoea diagnoses which would have been delayed with biannual versus quarterly screening. We assessed the potential for onward transmission by examining reported condomless anal sex (CAS) in periods after to-be-omitted visits when screening biannually. We assessed determinants of incident asymptomatic STIs using Poisson regression and calculated individual risk scores on the basis of the coefficients from this model.

RESULTS

We included 366 participants. Median follow-up was 47 months (IQR 43-50). 1,183STIs were diagnosed, of which 932(79%) asymptomatic. With biannual screening, 483 asymptomatic STIs (52%) diagnoses would have been delayed at 364 study visits. Of these visits, 129 (35%), 240 (66%) and 265 (73%) were followed by periods of CAS with steady, known casual or unknown casual partners, respectively. Older participants had a lower risk of asymptomatic STI (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.86/10-year increase, 95% CI 0.80 to 0.92), while CAS with known (IRR 1.36, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.68) and unknown (IRR 1.86, 95% CI 1.48 to 2.34) casual partners and chemsex (IRR 1.51, 95% CI 1.28 to 1.78) increased the risk. The individual risk scores had limited predictive value (sensitivity=0.70 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.74), specificity=0.50 (95% CI 0.48 to 0.51)).

CONCLUSION

Reducing the STI screening frequency to biannually among PrEP users will likely result in delayed diagnoses, potentially driving onward transmission. Although determinants for asymptomatic STIs were identified, predictive power was low.

A double-edged sword: does highly active antiretroviral therapy contribute to syphilis incidence by impairing immunity to Treponema pallidum?

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS

Recently, the world has experienced a rapidly escalating outbreak of infectious syphilis primarily affecting men who have sex with men (MSM); many are taking highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) for HIV-1 infection. The prevailing hypothesis is that HAART availability and effectiveness have led to the perception among both individuals who are HIV-1 infected and those who are uninfected that HIV-1 transmission has become much less likely, and the effects of HIV-1 infection less deadly. This is expected to result in increased sexual risk-taking, especially unprotected anal intercourse, leading to more non-HIV-1 STDs, including gonorrhoea, chlamydia and syphilis. However, syphilis incidence has increased more rapidly than other STDs. We hypothesise that HAART downregulates the innate and acquired immune responses to Treponema pallidum and that this biological explanation plays an important role in the syphilis epidemic.

METHODS

We performed a literature search and developed a mathematical model of HIV-1 and T. pallidum confection in a population with two risk groups with assortative mixing to explore the consequence on syphilis prevalence of HAART-induced changes in behaviour versus HAART-induced biological effects.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

Since rising syphilis incidence appears to have outpaced gonorrhoea and chlamydia, predominantly affecting HIV-1 positive MSM, behavioural factors alone may be insufficient to explain the unique, sharp increase in syphilis incidence. HAART agents have the potential to alter the innate and acquired immune responses in ways that may enhance susceptibility to T. pallidum. This raises the possibility that therapeutic and preventative HAART may inadvertently increase the incidence of syphilis, a situation that would have significant and global public health implications. We propose that additional studies investigating the interplay between HAART and enhanced T. pallidum susceptibility are needed. If our hypothesis is correct, HAART should be combined with enhanced patient management including frequent monitoring for pathogens such as T. pallidum.

Can enhanced screening of men with a history of prior syphilis infection stem the epidemic in men who have sex with men? A mathematical modelling study

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study is to determine the transmission impact of using prior syphilis infection to guide a focused syphilis screening intervention among men who have sex with men (MSM).

METHODS

We parameterised a deterministic model of syphilis transmission in MSM to reflect the 2011-2015 syphilis outbreak in Winnipeg, Canada. Enhanced screening of 75% of men with prior syphilis every 3 months (A) was compared with distributing equivalent number tests to all MSM (B) or those with the highest partner number (C). We compared early syphilis incidence, diagnoses and prevalence after 10 years, relative to a base case of 30% of MSM screened annually.

RESULTS

Strategy A was expected to avert 52% of incident infections, 44% of diagnosed cases and reduce early syphilis prevalence by 89%. Strategy B had the least impact. Strategy C was most effective, averting 59% of incident cases. When screening frequency was semiannual or annual, strategy A was the most effective.

CONCLUSIONS

Enhanced screening of MSM with prior syphilis may efficiently reduce transmission, especially when identification of high-risk men via self-reported partner numbers or high-frequency screening is difficult to achieve.

A comparative analysis of costs of single and dual rapid HIV and syphilis diagnostics: results from a randomised controlled trial in Colombia

Background

HIV and congenital syphilis are major public health burdens contributing to substantial perinatal morbidity and mortality globally. Although studies have reported on the costs and cost-effectiveness of rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for syphilis screening within antenatal care in a number of resource-constrained settings, empirical evidence on country-specific cost and estimates of single RDTs compared with dual RDTs for HIV and syphilis are limited.

Methods

A cluster randomised controlled study design was used to compare the incremental costs of two testing algorithms: (1) single RDTs for HIV and syphilis and (2) dual RDTs for HIV and syphilis, in 12 health facilities in Bogota and Cali, Colombia. The costs of single HIV and syphilis RDTs and dual HIV and syphilis RDTs were collected from each of the health facilities. The economic costs per woman tested for HIV and syphilis and costs per woman treated for syphilis defined as the total costs required to test and treat one woman for syphilis were estimated.

Results

A total of 2214 women were tested in the study facilities. Cost per pregnant woman tested and cost per woman treated for syphilis were US$10.26 and US$607.99, respectively in the single RDT arm. For the dual RDTs, the cost per pregnant woman tested for HIV and syphilis and cost per woman treated for syphilis were US$15.89 and US$1859.26, respectively. Overall costs per woman tested for HIV and syphilis and cost per woman treated for syphilis were lower in Cali compared with Bogota across both intervention arms. Staff costs accounted for the largest proportion of costs while treatment costs comprised <1% of the preventive programme.

Conclusions

Findings show lower average costs for single RDTs compared with dual RDTs with costs sensitive to personnel costs and the scale of output at the health facilities.

Trial registration number

NCT02454816; results.

Patterns of prevalent HPV and STI co-infections and associated factors among HIV-negative young Western Cape, South African women: the EVRI trial

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the prevalence and describe the patterns of concurrent human papillomavirus (HPV) and STIs and associated factors among HIV-negative young Western Cape, South African women participating in the Efficacy of HPV Vaccine to Reduce HIV Infection (EVRI) trial.

METHODS

HIV-negative women aged 16-24 years old were enrolled in the EVRI trial (NCT01489527) and randomised to receive the licensed four-valent HPV vaccine or placebo. At study entry, participants were clinically evaluated for five STIs: herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2), chlamydia, gonorrhoea, syphilis and disease-causing HPV genotypes (6/11/16/18/31/33/35/39/45/51/52/56/58/59/68). Demographic and sexual history characteristics were compared among women with STI co-infections, single infection and no infection using Pearson χ² and Mann-Whitney tests. ORs were calculated to evaluate factors associated with STI co-infection prevalence.

RESULTS

Among 388 young women, STI co-infection prevalence was high: 47% had ≥2 concurrent STIs, 36% had a single STI and 17% had none of the five evaluated STIs. HPV/HSV-2 (26%) was the most prevalent co-infection detected followed by HPV/HSV-2/Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) (17%) and HPV/CT (15%). Co-infection prevalence was independently associated with alcohol use (adjusted OR=2.01, 95% CI 1.00 to 4.06) and having a sexual partner with an STI (adjusted OR=6.96, 95% CI 1.53 to 30.08).

CONCLUSIONS

Among high-risk young women from underserved communities such as in Southern Africa, a multicomponent prevention strategy that integrates medical and behavioural interventions targeting both men and women is essential to prevent acquisition of concurrent STI infections and consequent disease.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT01489527; Post-results.

Estimating prevalence trends in adult gonorrhoea and syphilis in low- and middle-income countries with the Spectrum-STI model: results for Zimbabwe and Morocco from 1995 to 2016

Objective

To develop a tool for estimating national trends in adult prevalence of sexually transmitted infections by low- and middle-income countries, using standardised, routinely collected programme indicator data.

Methods

The Spectrum-STI model fits time trends in the prevalence of active syphilis through logistic regression on prevalence data from antenatal clinic-based surveys, routine antenatal screening and general population surveys where available, weighting data by their national coverage and representativeness. Gonorrhoea prevalence was fitted as a moving average on population surveys (from the country, neighbouring countries and historic regional estimates), with trends informed additionally by urethral discharge case reports, where these were considered to have reasonably stable completeness. Prevalence data were adjusted for diagnostic test performance, high-risk populations not sampled, urban/rural and male/female prevalence ratios, using WHO's assumptions from latest global and regional-level estimations. Uncertainty intervals were obtained by bootstrap resampling.

Results

Estimated syphilis prevalence (in men and women) declined from 1.9% (95% CI 1.1% to 3.4%) in 2000 to 1.5% (1.3% to 1.8%) in 2016 in Zimbabwe, and from 1.5% (0.76% to 1.9%) to 0.55% (0.30% to 0.93%) in Morocco. At these time points, gonorrhoea estimates for women aged 15–49 years were 2.5% (95% CI 1.1% to 4.6%) and 3.8% (1.8% to 6.7%) in Zimbabwe; and 0.6% (0.3% to 1.1%) and 0.36% (0.1% to 1.0%) in Morocco, with male gonorrhoea prevalences 14% lower than female prevalence.

Conclusions

This epidemiological framework facilitates data review, validation and strategic analysis, prioritisation of data collection needs and surveillance strengthening by national experts. We estimated ongoing syphilis declines in both Zimbabwe and Morocco. For gonorrhoea, time trends were less certain, lacking recent population-based surveys.