Current state and future perspectives on de facto population markers for normalization in wastewater-based epidemiology: A systematic literature review

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) and wastewater surveillance have become a valuable complementary data source to collect information on community-wide exposure through the measurement of human biomarkers in influent wastewater (IWW). In WBE, normalization of data with the de facto population that corresponds to a wastewater sample is crucial for a correct interpretation of spatio-temporal trends in exposure and consumption patterns. However, knowledge gaps remain in identifying and validating suitable de facto population biomarkers (PBs) for refinement of WBE back-estimations. WBE studies that apply de facto PBs (including hydrochemical parameters, utility consumption data sources, endo- and exogenous chemicals, biological biomarkers and signalling records) for relative trend analysis and absolute population size estimation were systematically reviewed from three databases (PubMed, Web of Science, SCOPUS) according to the PRISMA guidelines. We included in this review 81 publications that accounted for daily variations in population sizes by applying de facto population normalization. To date, a wide range of PBs have been proposed for de facto population normalization, complicating the comparability of normalized measurements across WBE studies. Additionally, the validation of potential PBs is complicated by the absence of an ideal external validator, magnifying the overall uncertainty for population normalization in WBE. Therefore, this review proposes a conceptual tier-based cross-validation approach for identifying and validating de facto PBs to guide their integration for i) relative trend analysis, and ii) absolute population size estimation. Furthermore, this review also provides a detailed evaluation of the uncertainty observed when comparing different de jure and de facto population estimation approaches. This study shows that their percentual differences can range up to ±200 %, with some exceptions showing even larger variations. This review underscores the need for collaboration among WBE researchers to further streamline the application of de facto population normalization and to evaluate the robustness of different PBs in different socio-demographic communities.

An integrated simulation-optimization approach for combined allocation of water quantity and quality under multiple uncertainties

Multiple uncertainties such as water quality processes, streamflow randomness affected by climate change, indicators' interrelation, and socio-economic development have brought significant risks in managing water quantity and quality (WQQ) for river basins. This research developed an integrated simulation-optimization modeling approach (ISMA) to tackle multiple uncertainties simultaneously. This approach combined water quality analysis simulation programming, Markov-Chain, generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation, and interval two-stage left-hand-side chance-constrained joint-probabilistic programming into an integration nonlinear modeling framework. A case study of multiple water intake projects in the Downstream and Delta of Dongjiang River Basin was used to demonstrate the proposed model. Results reveal that ISMA helps predict the trend of water quality changes and quantitatively analyze the interaction between WQQ. As the joint probability level increases, under strict water quality scenario system benefits would increase [3.23, 5.90] × 109 Yuan, comprehensive water scarcity based on quantity and quality would decrease [782.24, 945.82] × 106 m3, with an increase in water allocation and a decrease in pollutant generation. Compared to the deterministic and water quantity model, it allocates water efficiently and quantifies more economic losses and water scarcity. Therefore, this research has significant implications for improving water quality in basins, balancing the benefits and risks of water quality violations, and stabilizing socio-economic development.

A comparative study on urban waterlogging susceptibility assessment based on multiple data-driven models

Accurate identification of urban waterlogging areas and assessing waterlogging susceptibility are crucial for preventing and controlling hazards. Data-driven models are utilized to forecast waterlogging areas by establishing intricate relationships between explanatory variables and waterlogging states. This approach tackles the constraints of mechanistic models, which are frequently complex and unable to incorporate socio-economic factors. Previous research predominantly employed single-type data-driven models to predict waterlogging locations and evaluation of their effectiveness. There is a scarcity of comprehensive performance comparisons and uncertainty analyses of different types of models, as well as a lack of interpretability analysis. The chosen study area was the central area of Beijing, which is prone to waterlogging. Given the high manpower, time, and economic costs associated with collecting waterlogging information, the waterlogging point distribution map released by the Beijing Water Affairs Bureau was selected as labeled samples. Twelve factors affecting waterlogging susceptibility were chosen as explanatory variables to construct Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine with Radial Basis Function (SVM-RBF), Particle Swarm Optimization-Weakly Labeled Support Vector Machine (PSO-WELLSVM), and Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt). The utilization of diverse single evaluation indicators (such as F-score, Kappa, AUC, etc.) to assess the model performance may yield conflicting results. The Distance between Indices of Simulation and Observation (DISO) was chosen as a comprehensive measure to assess the model's performance in predicting waterlogging points. PSO-WELLSVM exhibited the highest performance with a DISOtest value of 0.63, outperforming MaxEnt (0.78), which excelled in identifying areas highly susceptible to waterlogging, including extremely high susceptibility zones. The SVM-RBF and RF models demonstrated suboptimal performance and exhibited overfitting. The examination of waterlogging susceptibility distribution maps predicted by the four models revealed significant spatial differences due to variations in computational principles and input parameter complexities. The integration of four WSAMs based on logistic regression has been shown to significantly decrease the uncertainty of a single data-driven model and identify the most flood-prone areas. To improve the interpretability of the data model, a geographical detector was incorporated to demonstrate the explanatory capacity of 12 variables and the process of waterlogging. Building Density (BD) exhibits the highest explanatory power in relation to explain waterlogging susceptibility (Q value = 0.202), followed by Distance to Road, Frequency of Heavy Rainstorms (FHR), DEM, etc. The interaction between BD and FHR results in a nonlinear increase in the explanatory power of waterlogging susceptibility. The presence of waterlogging susceptibility risk in the research area can be attributed to the interactions of multiple factors.

Comprehensive assessment of exposure and environmental risk of potentially toxic elements in surface water and sediment across China: A synthesis study

China faces a serious challenge with water pollution posed by potentially toxic elements (PTEs). Comprehensive and reliable environmental risk assessment is paramount for precise pollution prevention and control. Previous studies generally focused on a single environmental compartment within small regions, and the uncertainty in risk calculation is not fully considered. This study revealed the current exposure status of 11 PTEs in surface water and sediment across China using previously reported concentration data in 301 well-screened articles. Ecological and human health risks were evaluated and the uncertainty related to calculation parameters and exposure dataset were quantified. PTEs of high concern were further identified. Results showed Mn and Zn had the highest concentration levels, while Hg and Cd had the lowest concentrations in both surface water and sediment. Risk assessment of individual PTE showed that high-risk PTEs varied by risk receptors and environmental compartments. Nationwide, the probability of aquatic organisms being affected by Mn, Zn, Cu, and As in surface water exceeded 10 %. In sediment, Cd and Hg exhibited high and considerable risk, respectively. As was identified as the major PTE threatening human health as its carcinogenic risk was 1.45 × 10-4 through direct ingestion. Combined risk assessment showed the PTE mixture in surface water and sediment posed medium and high ecological risk with the risk quotient and potential ecological risk index of 1.76 and 558.36, respectively. Adverse health effects through incidental ingestion and dermal contact during swimming were negligible. This study provides a nationwide risk assessment of PTEs in China's aquatic environment and the robustness is verified, which can serve as a practical basis for policymakers to guide the early warning and precise management of water pollution.

Quantification of NOx sources contribution to ambient nitrate aerosol, uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis in a megacity

Dual isotopes of nitrogen and oxygen of NO3- are crucial tools for quantifying the formation pathways and precursor NOx sources contributing to atmospheric nitrate. However, further research is needed to reduce the uncertainty associated with NOx proportional contributions. The acquisition of nitrogen isotopic composition from NOx emission sources lacks regulation, and its impact on the accuracy of contribution results remains unexplored. This study identifies key influencing factors of source isotopic composition through statistical methods, based on a detailed summary of δ15N-NOx values from various sources. NOx emission sources are classified considering these factors, and representative means, standard deviations, and 95 % confidence intervals are determined using the bootstrap method. During the sampling period in Tianjin in 2022, the proportional nitrate formation pathways varied between sites. For suburban and coastal sites, the ranking was [Formula: see text] (NO2 + OH radical) > [Formula: see text] (N2O5 + H2O) > [Formula: see text] (NO3 + DMS/HC), while the rural site exhibited similar fractional contributions from all three formation pathways. Fossil fuel NOx sources consistently contributed more than non-fossil NOx sources in each season among three sites. The uncertainties in proportional contributions varied among different sources, with coal combustion and biogenic soil emission showing lower uncertainties, suggesting more stable proportional contributions than other sources. The sensitivity analysis clearly identifies that the isotopic composition of 15N-enriched and 15N-reduced sources significantly influences source contribution results, emphasizing the importance of accurately characterizing the localized and time-efficient nitrogen isotopic composition of NOx emission sources. In conclusion, this research sheds light on the importance of addressing uncertainties in NOx proportional contributions and emphasizes the need for further exploration of nitrogen isotopic composition from NOx emission sources for accurate atmospheric nitrate studies.

Uncertainty analysis and economic value prediction of water environmental capacity based on Copula and Bayesian model: A case study of Yitong River, China

Water environmental capacity (WEC) is an indicator of environment management. The uncertainty analysis of WEC is more closely aligned with the actual conditions of the water body. It is crucial for accurately formulating pollution total emissions control schemes. However, the current WEC uncertainty analysis method ignored the connection between water quality and discharge, and required a large amount of monitoring data. This study analyzed the uncertainty of the WEC and predicted its economic value based on Copula and Bayesian model for the Yitong River in China. The Copula model was employed to calculate joint probabilities of water quality and discharge. And the posterior distribution of WEC with limited data was obtained by the Bayesian formula. The results showed that the WEC-COD in the Yitong River was 9009.67 t/a, while NH3-N had no residual WEC. Wanjinta Highway Bridge-Kaoshan Town reach had the most serious pollution. In order to make it have WEC, the reduction of COD and NH3-N was 5330.47 t and 3017.87 t. The economic value of WEC-COD was 5.97 × 107 CNY, and the treatment cost was 2.04 × 108 CNY to make NH3-N have residual WEC. The economic value distribution of WEC was extremely uneven, which could be utilized by adjusting the sewage outlet. In addition, since the treated water was discharged into the Sihua Bridge-Wanjinta Highway Bridge reach, the WEC-COD and the economic value were 19,488.51 t/a and 8.24 × 107 CNY. Increasing the flow of rivers could effectively improve WEC and economic value. This study provided an evaluation tool for guiding river water environment management.

Uncertainty analysis of greenhouse gas emissions of monorail transit during the construction

This paper examines the uncertainty of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during monorail construction. Firstly, a deterministic analysis is conducted. Subsequently, the obtained data are evaluated using the data quality indicator (DQI), and a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation method is employed to assume different parameter distributions. The results of the deterministic calculation indicate that the calculated emissions per unit area of the station amount to 1.97 ton CO2e/m2, while the calculated emissions per unit section length reach 7.55 ton CO2e/m2. To simulate parameter distribution, we utilize a Beta distribution with good shape applicability. Furthermore, we establish scenarios involving system boundary reduction, low-emission factors, and reduced material and energy inputs in order to analyze scenario uncertainties. Regarding model uncertainty, this paper assumes that the material and energy quantity data conform to the normal, log-normal, uniform, and triangular distributions, respectively, subsequently analyzing the uncertainty distributions. This paper analyzes the GHG emission uncertainty evaluation of 16 monorail stations and sections during the construction period, which is divided into parameter, scenario, and model uncertainty. We provide a concrete framework for studying uncertainties related to GHG emissions at stations and sections during the monorail construction period. The scenario analysis results will help to make decisions about the choice of parameters, system boundaries, and other settings. It provides new guidance for emission reduction policies, such as reducing the use of steel-related products or using alternative environmentally friendly materials, considering emission reduction factors more comprehensively and setting emission reduction factors according to uniform distribution principle as far as possible.

High spatiotemporal resolution ammonia emission inventory from typical industrial and agricultural province of China from 2000 to 2020

As a typical industrial and agricultural province, Shandong is one of China's most seriously air-polluted regions. One comprehensive ammonia emission inventory with a high spatial resolution (1 km × 1 km) for 136 county-level administrative divisions in Shandong from 2000 to 2020 is developed based on county-level activity data with the corrected and updated emission factors of seventy-seven subcategories. Annual ammonia emissions decrease from 1003.3 Gg in 2000 to 795.9 Gg in 2020, with an annual decrease rate of 1.2 %. Therein, the ammonia emissions associated with livestock and farmland ecosystems in 2020 account for 50.8 % and 32.9 % of the provincial total ammonia emission, respectively. Laying hen and wheat are the livestock and crop with the highest ammonia emissions, accounting for 23.3 % and 36.3 % of ammonia emissions from livestock and the application of synthetic fertilizers, respectively. Furthermore, waste treatment, humans and vehicles are the top three ammonia emission sources in urban areas, accounting for 5.0 %, 4.7 % and 1.3 % of total ammonia emissions, respectively. The spatial distribution of grids with high ammonia emissions is consistent with the distribution of intensive farms. Significant emission intensity areas mainly concentrate in western Shandong (e.g., Caoxian of Heze, Qihe of Dezhou, Yanggu of Liaocheng, Liangshan of Jining) due to the large area of arable land and the high levels of agricultural activity. Overall, prominent seasonal variability characteristics of ammonia emission are observed. Ammonia emissions tend to be high in summer and low in winter, and the August to January-emission ratio is 5.6. The high temperature and fertilization for maize are primarily responsible for Shandong's increase in ammonia emissions in summer. Finally, the validity of the estimates is further evaluated using uncertainty analysis and comparison with previous studies. This study can provide information to determine preferentially effective PM2.5 control strategies.

Integrated pollution analysis, pollution area identification and source apportionment of heavy metal contamination in agricultural soil

Given the global prevalence of soil heavy metal contamination, knowledge concerning of soil environmental quality assessment, pollution area identification and source apportionment is critical for implementation of soil pollution prevention and safe utilization strategies. In this study, soil static environmental capacity (QI) for heavy metals was selected to evaluate pollution risks in agricultural soils of Wenzhou, southeast China. Combined with geostatistical methods, the pollution area was identified along with uncertainty analysis. Potential sources were quantitatively apportioned using a positive matrix factorization model (PMF). Results showed that agricultural soils in this study were mainly contaminated by Cd and Pb based on both Nemerow and QI indices. The environmental capacity assessment found more than 90% areas were identified as polluted soils for Qi-Zn, Qi-Cd and Qi-Pb, with minor uncertain areas. Cu was identified as having a high proportion of uncertain pollution area status, which was similar to the results of the integrated environmental capacity for all metals. PMF results indicated that industrial discharge, agrochemicals and parent material accounted for 32.1%, 32.2% and 35.7% of heavy metal accumulation in soils, respectively. Implementation of strict policies to reduce anthropogenic source emissions and remediate soil pollution are crucial to minimize metal pollution inputs, improve agricultural soil quality and enhance food safety.

Municipal solid waste management for low-carbon transition: A systematic review of artificial neural network applications for trend prediction

Improper municipal solid waste (MSW) management contributes to greenhouse gas emissions, necessitating emissions reduction strategies such as waste reduction, recycling, and composting to move towards a more sustainable, low-carbon future. Machine learning models are applied for MSW-related trend prediction to provide insights on future waste generation or carbon emissions trends and assist the formulation of effective low-carbon policies. Yet, the existing machine learning models are diverse and scattered. This inconsistency poses challenges for researchers in the MSW domain who seek to identify and optimize the machine learning techniques and configurations for their applications. This systematic review focuses on MSW-related trend prediction using the most frequently applied machine learning model, artificial neural network (ANN), while addressing potential methodological improvements for reducing prediction uncertainty. Thirty-two papers published from 2013 to 2023 are included in this review, all applying ANN for MSW-related trend prediction. Observing a decrease in the size of data samples used in studies from daily to annual timescales, the summarized statistics suggest that well-performing ANN models can still be developed with approximately 33 annual data samples. This indicates promising opportunities for modeling macroscale greenhouse gas emissions in future works. Existing literature commonly used the grid search (manual) technique for hyperparameter (e.g., learning rate, number of neurons) optimization and should explore more time-efficient automated optimization techniques. Since there are no one-size-fits-all performance indicators, it is crucial to report the model's predictive performance based on more than one performance indicator and examine its uncertainty. The predictive performance of newly-developed integrated models should also be benchmarked to show performance improvement clearly and promote similar applications in future works. The review analyzed the shortcomings, best practices, and prospects of ANNs for MSW-related trend predictions, supporting the realization of practical applications of ANNs to enhance waste management practices and reduce carbon emissions.

Poisson rectangular pulse (PRP) model establishment based on uncertainty analysis of urban residential water consumption patterns

The commonly used Poisson rectangular pulse (PRP) model, employed for simulating high-resolution residential water consumption patterns (RWCPs), relies on calibration via medium-resolution RWCPs obtained from practical measurements. This introduces inevitable uncertainty stemming from the measured RWCPs, which consequently impacts the precision of model simulations. Here we enhance the accuracy of the PRP model by addressing the uncertainty of RWCPs. We established a critical sampling size of 2000 household water consumption patterns (HWCPs) with a data logging interval (DLI) of 15 min to attain dependable RWCPs. Through Genetic Algorithm calibration, the optimal values of the PRP model's parameters were determined: pulse frequency λ = 91 d-1, mean of pulse intensity E(I) = 0.346 m3 h-1, standard deviation of pulse intensity STD(I) = 0.292 m3 h-1, mean of pulse duration E(D) = 40 s, and standard deviation of pulse duration STD(D) = 55 s. Furthermore, validation was conducted at both HWCP and RWCP levels. We recommend a sampling size of ≥2000 HWCPs and a DLI of ≤30 min for PRP model calibration to balance simulation precision and practical implementation. This study significantly advances the theoretical foundation and real-world application of the PRP model, enhancing its role in urban water supply system management.

Analysis of Uncertainty and Sensitivity in Tailings Dam Breach-Runout Numerical Modelling

Tailings dam breaches (TDBs) and subsequent flows can pose significant risk to public safety, the environment, and the economy. Numerical runout models are used to simulate potential tailings flows and understand their downstream impacts. Due to the complex nature of the breach-runout processes, the mobility and downstream impacts of these types of failures are highly uncertain. We applied the first-order second-moment (FOSM) methodology to a database of 11 back-analyzed historical tailings flows to evaluate uncertainties in TDB runout modelling and conducted a sensitivity analysis to identify key factors contributing to the variability of the HEC-RAS model output, including at different locations along the runout path. The results indicate that prioritizing resources toward advancements in estimating the values of primary contributors to the sensitivity of the selected model outputs is necessary for more reliable model results. We found that the total released volume is among the top contributors to the sensitivity of modelled inundation area and maximum flow depth, while surface roughness is among the top contributors to the sensitivity of modelled maximum flow velocity and flow front arrival time. However, the primary contributors to the sensitivity of the model outputs varied depending on the case study; therefore, the selection of appropriate rheological models and consideration of site-specific conditions are crucial for accurate predictions. The study proposes and demonstrates the FOSM methodology as an approximate probabilistic approach to model-based tailings flow runout prediction, which can help improve the accuracy of risk assessments and emergency response plans.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10230-024-00970-w.

Groundwater level forecasting using ensemble coactive neuro-fuzzy inference system

A modeling framework utilizing the coactive neuro-fuzzy inference system (CANFIS) has been developed for multi-lead time groundwater level (GWL) forecasting in four different wells located in Texas and Florida, USA. Various model input combinations, including GWL, precipitation, temperature, and surface water level variables, have been derived based on proposed correlation analysis using singular spectrum analysis (SSA) remainders. The models have been trained on data subsets of varying lengths to identify the optimal training data duration. Additionally, we have introduced the bagging ensemble learning method to enhance the performance of the CANFIS model. As part of a comprehensive model evaluation process, the best-performing CANFIS model for each forecasting scenario has undergone uncertainty analysis using bootstrap sampling. Our results reveal that the CANFIS model performs satisfactorily for daily forecasting but leaves room for improvement in monthly forecasting, particularly for two-month and three-month ahead forecasts. Moreover, we have identified several optimal input combinations, highlighting the significance of the temperature variable in monthly forecasting. Furthermore, our findings indicate that additional training data does not necessarily lead to improved performance. The ensemble CANFIS model has demonstrated significant performance enhancement, particularly for monthly forecasting. Finally, the CANFIS model uncertainty analysis has shown satisfactory results for daily forecasting scenarios, while monthly forecasting models exhibit higher uncertainties, particularly during periods with distinctly different GWL fluctuation patterns.

A review of the CAMx, CMAQ, WRF-Chem and NAQPMS models: Application, evaluation and uncertainty factors

With the gradual deepening of the research and governance of air pollution, chemical transport models (CTMs), especially the third-generation CTMs based on the "1 atm" theory, have been recognized as important tools for atmospheric environment research and air quality management. In this review article, we screened 2396 peer-reviewed manuscripts on the application of four pre-selected regional CTMs in the past five years. CAMx, CMAQ, WRF-Chem and NAQPMS models are well used in the simulation of atmospheric pollutants. In the simulation study of secondary pollutants such as O3, secondary organic aerosol (SOA), sulfates, nitrates, and ammonium (SNA), the CMAQ model has been widely applied. Secondly, model evaluation indicators are diverse, and the establishment of evaluation criteria has gone through the long-term efforts of predecessors. However, the model performance evaluation system still needs further specification. Furthermore, temporal-spatial resolution, emission inventory, meteorological field and atmospheric chemical mechanism are the main sources of uncertainty, and have certain interference with the simulation results. Among them, the inventory and mechanism are particularly important, and are also the top priorities in future simulation research.

Mathematical optimization of waste management systems: Methodological review and perspectives for application

The transition to a circular economy through sustainable waste management (WM) follows different paths in each region, depending on its socioeconomic conditions and existing infrastructure. Mathematical optimization models are rigorous tools for informing local decision-making and identifying WM policy levers based on a variety of configurations. This review explores the pathways taken when designing WM optimization models (WM-OMs) that establish a network of waste valorization technologies. To standardize the literature review process, we propose a novel characterization method for examining, relating, and benchmarking the features of WM-OMs. After a thorough review of 58 articles published between 2015 and 2022, we assembled a comprehensive database to document the characteristics of these papers and the type of data reported in their case studies. We aim to provide a solid foundation for streamlining and enhancing future WM-OMs. Our work identifies various opportunities to improve the accuracy and reliability of WM-OMs. They include modeling thermo-chemical reactions in WM processes; considering regulatory, environmental, and political constraints; recognizing the informal sector; exploring the impact of marketing mechanisms on waste prevention and recycling; improving the traceability of case study data; specifying the rationale for uncertainty analysis (UA); and indicating the mathematical model (type, optimization algorithm, and equations). As many WM-OM authors have implemented UA without justifying their method choices, our review provides a pioneering guide for selecting the UA approach. Finally, we discuss the need for a trade-off between performance and practicality as models become more complex, making it critical to consider the specific needs of stakeholders.

Analysis of the uncertainty of the AIS-based bottom-up approach for estimating ship emissions

Although the AIS-based bottom-up approach has become the dominant method for estimating ship emissions, there are still inherent uncertainties due to the numerous complex factors involved. This paper aims to investigate the development process of the AIS-based bottom-up approach and identify the primary sources of uncertainty by conducting a systematic review of 29 articles published since 2015. The result shows three sources of uncertainty for estimating ship emissions, i.e., the acquisition and processing of AIS data, ship characteristic information and engine load calculation, and the determination of emission factors. This paper suggests that the accuracy of ship emission inventories can be improved by enhancing the reliability of datasets, uniformly defining engine load calculation formulas, and making more extensive measurements of local emissions to provide substantial support for ship emissions management and facilitate the development of more effective emission reduction strategies.

Human health risk assessment and uncertainty analysis of silver nanoparticles in water

Despite frequent detection in environmental waters, literature which quantifies the health risk of silver nanoparticles (Ag NPs) through oral ingestion is scarce. This study compiled literature data to find the removal of Ag NPs from different treatment schemes (i.e., natural, engineered, or hybrid). Ag NP concentrations were found either in surface water or in groundwater based on where the effluent of treatment schemes was discharged, i.e., either in surface water or in groundwater. Monte-Carlo simulation was carried out for probabilistic assessment of health risks for children for two hypothetical exposure scenarios: (a) ingesting river water while swimming and (b) drinking groundwater. Bio-accessible fraction, dietary metal adsorption factor, and concentrations of silver ions were incorporated to simulate realistic situations. Different treatment schemes were ranked for their nanoparticles' removal efficiency with respect to (i) exceedance probability from guideline value and (ii) health risk to children. Hybrid treatment combinations, i.e., conventional primary and secondary treatment units followed by nature-based units (constructed wetlands and soil aquifer treatment), were ranked the best. The health risk value was found to be less than 1, with the 99th percentile value less than 10-3 in all cases. The maximum allowable concentration of Ag NPs was found to be as low as 1.43 mg/L for groundwater, suggesting probable potential for risk. Uncertainty analysis revealed that the uncertainty of the influent NPs concentration in raw wastewater contributes > 99% to the variance of the hazard index. The results of this work indicate that the use of natural treatment technologies with existing engineered treatments provides higher nanoparticle removal from wastewater without the requirement of any tertiary treatment unit.

Environmental assessment of Rhodosporidium toruloides-1588 based oil production using wood hydrolysate and crude glycerol

Rhodosporidium toruloides, an oleaginous yeast, is a potential feedstock for biodiesel production due to its ability to utilize lignocellulosic biomass-derived hydrolysate with a considerably high lipid titer of 50-70 % w/w. Hence, for the first-time environmental assessment of large-scale R. toruloides-based biodiesel production from wood hydrolysate and crude glycerol was conducted. The global warming potential was observed to be 0.67 kg CO2 eq./MJ along with terrestrial ecotoxicity of 1.37 kg 1,4-DCB eq./MJ and fossil depletion of 0.13 kg oil eq./MJ. The highest impacts for global warming (∼45 %) and fossil depletion (∼37 %) are attributed to the use of chloroform for lipid extraction while fuel consumption for transportation contributed more than 50 % to terrestrial ecotoxicity. Further, sensitivity analysis revealed that maximizing biodiesel yield by increasing lipid yield and solid loading could contribute to reduced environmental impacts. In nutshell, this investigation reveals that environmental impact varies with the type of chemical utilized.

Source characteristics of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and polychlorinated biphenyls in surface soils of Shenyang, China: A comparison of two receptor models combined with Monte Carlo simulation

The surface soil concentrations of 16 PAHs and 15 PCBs were simultaneously determined by gas chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry in 21 locations of urban areas of Shenyang. The average concentrations of PAHs and PCBs were 26.40 ± 34.68 mg/kg and 48.03 ± 27.47 μg/kg, respectively. Factor analysis with nonnegative constraints (FA-NNC) and absolute principal component score with multiple linear regression (APCS-MLR) model were used to explore and evaluate the sources of PAHs and PCBs in the study area. The results of FA-NNC showed that PAHs in soils were mainly from traffic emissions (49.64%), coal combustion (46.88%) and petrogenic source (3.49%). The PCBs in soils were mainly from commercial and high temperature combustion mixed sources (20.3%), combustion and industry emission mixed sources (21.1%), electrical equipment sources (22.2%) and traffic emission sources (36.4%). The results of APCS-MLR were consistent with those of FA-NNC. The uncertainty of FA-NNC and APCS-MLR model was analyzed by Monte Carlo simulation method. The results revealed the reliability of the two receptor models on source apportionment. The estimated carcinogenic risks indicated that the risks of PAHs in soils exceed the acceptable range (10-6-10-4), while the risks of PCBs were below the acceptable risk level of 10-6.

Bayesian model averaging by combining deep learning models to improve lake water level prediction

Water level (WL) is an essential indicator of lakes and sensitive to climate change. Fluctuations of lake WL may significantly affect water supply security and ecosystem stability. Accurate prediction of lake WL is, therefore, crucial for water resource management and eco-environmental protection. In this study, three deep learning (DL) models, including long short-term memory (LSTM), the gated recurrent unit (GRU), and the temporal convolutional network (TCN), were used to predict WLs at five stations of Poyang Lake for different forecast periods (1-day ahead, 3-day ahead, and 7-day ahead). The forecast results of the three DL models were synthesized through Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to improve prediction accuracy, and Monte Carlo sampling method was used to calculated the 90 % confidence intervals to analyze the model uncertainty. All the three DL models achieved satisfactory prediction accuracy. GRU performed best in most forecast scenarios, followed by TCN and LSTM. None of the models, however, consistently provided the optimal results in all forecast scenarios. Lake WL prediction accuracy of BMA had a further improvement in metrics of NSE and R2 in 80 % of the forecast scenarios and ranked at least top two in all forecast scenarios. The uncertainty analysis showed that the containing ration (CR) values were above 84 % while the relative bandwidth (RB) maintained reliable performance over the 7-day ahead prediction. The proposed framework in the present study can realize satisfactory WL forecast accuracy while avoiding complex comparison and selection of DL models, and it can also be easily applied to the prediction of other hydrological variables.

Investigating key drivers of N2O emissions in heterogeneous riparian sediments: Reactive transport modeling and statistical analysis

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a potent greenhouse gas that also contributes to ozone depletion. Recent studies have identified river corridors as significant sources of N2O emissions. Surface water-groundwater (hyporheic) interactions along river corridors induce flow and reactive nitrogen transport through riparian sediments, thereby generating N2O. Despite the prevalence of these processes, the controlling influence of physical and geochemical parameters on N2O emissions from coupled aerobic and anaerobic reactive transport processes in heterogeneous riparian sediments is not yet fully understood. This study presents an integrated framework that combines a flow and multi-component reactive transport model (RTM) with an uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis tool to determine which physical and geochemical parameters have the greatest impact on N2O emissions from riparian sediments. The framework involves the development of thousands of RTMs, followed by global sensitivity and responsive surface analyses. Results indicate that characterizing the denitrification reaction rate constant and permeability of intermediate-permeability sediments (e.g., sandy gravel) are crucial in describing coupled nitrification-denitrification reactions and the magnitude of N2O emissions. This study provides valuable insights into the factors that influence N2O emissions from riparian sediments and can help in developing strategies to control N2O emissions from river corridors.

Establishing an emission inventory for ammonia, a key driver of haze formation in the southern North China plain during the COVID-19 pandemic

Despite the significant reduction in atmospheric pollutant levels during the COVID-19 lockdown, the presence of haze in the North China Plain remained a frequent occurrence owing to the enhanced formation of secondary inorganic aerosols under ammonia-rich conditions. Quantifying the increase or decrease in atmospheric ammonia (NH3) emissions is a key step in exploring the causes of the COVID-19 haze. Historic activity levels of anthropogenic NH3 emissions were collected through various yearbooks and studies, an anthropogenic NH3 emission inventory for Henan Province for 2020 was established, and the variations in NH3 emissions from different sources between COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 years were investigated. The validity of the NH3 emission inventory was further evaluated through comparison with previous studies and uncertainty analysis from Monte Carlo simulations. Results showed that the total NH3 emissions gradually increased from north-west to south-east, totalling 751.80 kt in 2020. Compared to the non-COVID-19 year of 2019, the total NH3 emissions were reduced by approximately 4 %, with traffic sources, waste disposal and biomass burning serving as the sources with the top three largest reductions, approximately 33 %, 9.97 % and 6.19 %, respectively. Emissions from humans and fuel combustion slightly increased. Meanwhile, livestock waste emissions decreased by only 3.72 %, and other agricultural emissions experienced insignificant change. Non-agricultural sources were more severely influenced by the COVID-19 lockdown than agricultural sources; nevertheless, agricultural activities contributed 84.35 % of the total NH3 emissions in 2020. These results show that haze treatment should be focused on reducing NH3, particularly controlling agricultural NH3 emissions.

Ecological risk evaluation of ammonia nitrogen pollution in China based on the ecological grey water footprint model

The biosafety criteria of ammonia nitrogen (NH3-N) exhibit uncertainties, posing challenges to the assessment of the hazard of social NH3-N load to aquatic ecosystem. To evaluate this ecological hazard in China, an ecological grey water footprint (E-GWF) model is designed based on the uncertainty analysis theory. In the E-GWF model, the acute toxicity is quantified via short-term E-GWF (E-GWFs) and acute risk (AR), while its chronic toxicity is quantified via long-term E-GWF (E-GWFl) and chronic risk (CR). Results show the following. (i) Compared with the conventional GWF, the E-GWF performs better in the uncertainty analysis of the biosafety threshold, and it is more effective in ecological risk evaluation and environment planning. (ii) The E-GWFs and E-GWFl of NH3-N in China are 309.4 and 2382.5 billion m3, respectively. Regions with large E-GWF are concentrated in the east and south, while regions with small E-GWF are concentrated in the north and west. (iii) The ecological risks of NH3-N in Shanghai City, Tianjin City, Ningxia Province, Hebei Province, Jiangsu Province, Shanxi Province, and Shandong Province belong to the "High" grade. The ecological risks of NH3-N in Tibet and Qinghai Province belong to the "Negligible" grade. (iv) The ecological risk of NH3-N in China is mostly determined by industrial and domestic pollution. (v) To control the risk within allowable grades, the social NH3-N pollution load of China should be decreased to 988.7 kilotons.

Performance of a gross pollutant trap-biofilter and sand filter treatment train for the removal of organic micropollutants from highway stormwater (field study)

This field study assessed the occurrence, event mean concentrations (EMCs), and removal of selected organic micro-pollutants (OMPs), namely, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), petroleum hydrocarbons (PHCs), nonylphenol (NP), 4-t-octylphenol (OP), and bisphenol A (BPA), in a gross pollutant trap (GPT)-biofilter/sand filter stormwater treatment train in Sundsvall, Sweden. The effects of design features of each treatment unit, including pre-sedimentation (GPT), sand filter medium, vegetation, and chalk amendment, were investigated by comparing the units' removal performances. Overall, the treatment train removed most OMPs from highway runoff effectively. The results showed that although the sand filter provided moderate (<50 % for phenolic substances) to high (50-80 % for PAHs and PHCs) removal of OMPs, adding a vegetated soil layer on top of the sand filter considerably improved the removal performance (by at least 30 %), especially for BPA, OP, and suspended solids. Moreover, GTP did not contribute to the treatment significantly. Uncertainties in the removal efficiencies of PAHs and PHCs by the filter cells increased substantially when the ratio of the influent concentration to the limit of quantification decreased. Thus, accounting for such uncertainties due to the low OMP concentrations should be considered when evaluating the removal performance of biofilters.

Control of climate and physiography on runoff response behavior through use of catchment classification and machine learning

Understanding of runoff response changes (RRC) is essential for water resource management decisions. However, there is a limited understanding of the effects of climate and landscape properties on RRC behavior. This study explored RRC behavior across controls and predictability in 1003 catchments in the contiguous United States (CONUS) using catchment classification and machine learning. Over 1000+ catchments are grouped into ten classes with similar hydrological behavior across CONUS. Indices quantifying RRC were constructed and then predicted within each class of the 10 classes and over the entire1000+ catchments using two machine learning models (random forest and CUBIST) based on 56 indicators of catchment attributes (CA) and 16 flow signatures (FS). This enabled the ranking of the important influential factors on RRC. We found that (i) CA/FS-based clusters followed the ecoregions over CONUS, and the impact of climate on RRC seemed to overlap with physiographic attributes; (ii) CUBIST outperforms the random forest model both within the cluster and over the whole domain, with a mean improvement of 39 % (depending on clusters) within clusters. Runoff sensitivity was better predicted than runoff changes; (iii) FS related to runoff ratio, average, and high flow are the most important for RRC, whereas climate (evaporation and aridity) is a secondary factor; and (iv) RRC patterns are substantial in the dominant factor space. High total changes and catchment characteristic-induced changes occurred mainly at 100°west longitude. The elasticity of climate and catchment characteristics was found to be high in spaces with high evaporation and low runoff ratios and low in spaces with low evaporation and high runoff ratios. Uncertainties existed in the number of catchments between clusters which was verified using a fuzzy clustering algorithm. We recommend that future research that clarifies the impact of uncertainty on hydrological or catchment behavior should be conducted.