Treatment response and clinical event-free survival in autoimmune hepatitis: A Canadian multicentre cohort study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Treatment outcomes for people living with autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) are limited by a lack of specific therapies, as well as limited well-validated prognostic tools and clinical trial endpoints. We sought to identify predictors of outcome for people living with AIH.

METHODS

We evaluated the clinical course of people with AIH across 11 Canadian centres. Biochemical changes were analysed using linear mixed-effect and logistic regression. Clinical outcome was dynamically modelled using time-varying Cox proportional hazard modelling and landmark analysis.

RESULTS

In 691 patients (median age 49 years, 75.4% female), with a median follow-up of 6 years (25th-75th percentile, 2.5-11), 118 clinical events occurred. Alanine aminotransferase (ALT) normalisation occurred in 63.8% of the cohort by 12 months. Older age at diagnosis (odd ratio [OR] 1.19, 95% CI 1.06-1.35) and female sex (OR 1.94, 95% CI 1.18-3.19) were associated with ALT normalisation at 6 months, whilst baseline cirrhosis status was associated with reduced chance of normalisation at 12 months (OR 0.52, 95% CI 0.33-0.82). Baseline total bilirubin, aminotransferases, and IgG values, as well as initial prednisone dose, did not predict average ALT reduction. At baseline, older age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.25, 95% CI 1.12-1.40), cirrhosis at diagnosis (HR 3.67, 95% CI 2.48-5.43), and elevated baseline total bilirubin (HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.17-1.58) increased the risk of clinical events. Prolonged elevations in ALT (HR 1.07, 95% CI 1.00-1.13) and aspartate aminotransferase (HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.06-1.21), but not IgG (HR 1.01, 95% CI 0.95-1.07), were associated with higher risk of clinical events. Higher ALT at 6 months was associated with worse clinical event-free survival.

CONCLUSION

In people living with AIH, sustained elevated aminotransferase values, but not IgG, are associated with poorer long-term outcomes. Biochemical response and long-term survival are not associated with starting prednisone dose.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

Using clinical data from multiple Canadian liver clinics treating autoimmune hepatitis (AIH), we evaluate treatment response and clinical outcomes. For the first time, we apply mixed-effect and time-varying survival statistical methods to rigorously examine treatment response and the impact of fluctuating liver biochemistry on clinical event-free survival. Key to the study impact, our data is 'real-world', represents a diverse population across Canada, and uses continuous measurements over follow-up. Our results challenge the role of IgG as a marker of treatment response and if normalisation of IgG should remain an important part of the definition of biochemical remission. Our analysis further highlights that baseline markers of disease severity may not prognosticate early treatment response. Additionally, the initial prednisone dose may be less relevant for achieving aminotransferase normalisation. This is important for patients and treating clinicians given the relevance and importance of side effects.

Glycemic control target for liver and cardiovascular events risk in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease

AIMS

Optimizing glycemic control may prevent liver-related events and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). However, the optimal hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) threshold associated with a lower risk of complications, particularly liver-related events as well as MACE is unknown.

METHODS

We investigated a nationwide population-based cohort and identified 633 279 patients with MASLD, with a mean follow-up of 4.2 years. Hemoglobin A1c levels were measured annually. The primary endpoint was the risk of liver-related events and MACE and to determine the optimal HbA1c level associated with the risk of complications.

RESULTS

Mean HbA1c (per 1%) was associated with liver-related events (subdistribution hazard ratio [sHR] 1.26; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12-1.42) as well as MACE (sHR 1.36; 95% CI, 1.32-1.41) after adjustment for confounders. Multivariable sHR (95% CI) for HbA1c of <5.0%, 6.0%-6.9%, 7.0%-7.9%, 8.0%-8.9%, and ≥9.0% (reference, 5.0%-5.9%) were 14 (9.1-22), 1.70 (1.2-2.3), 3.32 (2.3-4.8), 3.81 (2.1-6.8), and 4.83 (2.4-9.6) for liver-related events, and 1.24 (0.8-1.8), 1.27 (1.2-1.4), 1.70 (1.5-2.0), 2.36 (1.9-2.9), and 4.17 (3.5-5.0) for MACE. An HbA1c level of 7% was selected as the optimal threshold for predicting complications (sHR 2.40 [1.8-3.2] for liver-related events and 1.98 [1.8-2.2] for MACE).

CONCLUSION

The risk of liver-related events as well as MACE increased in a dose-dependent fashion with an increase in HbA1c levels, except for patients with HbA1c <5.0% for liver-related events. An HbA1c level of 7% was the optimal threshold associated with a lower risk of complications and may be utilized as a target for glycemic control in patients with MASLD.

Immune Response and Risk of Decompensation following SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Outpatients with Advanced Chronic Liver Disease

Advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD) is associated with a wide spectrum of immune dysfunction. The clinical impact of SARS-CoV-2 on the development of decompensation and immune response in unvaccinated outpatients has not as yet been clearly defined. This study aimed to evaluate the clinical and immunological impact of SARS-CoV-2 on outpatients with ACLD. This is an observational case-control study, in which ACLD outpatients were included prospectively and consecutively and classified into two groups: SARS-CoV-2 infected and non-infected. Patients' baseline characteristics and infection data were collected and analyzed. Immunoglobulin G (IgG) levels against Spike 1 were evaluated. The primary endpoint was risk of liver decompensation during follow-up, assessed after propensity score matching and adjusted by Cox regression. Between October 2020 and July 2021, ACLD outpatients (n = 580) were identified, and 174 patients with clinical follow-up were included. SARS-CoV-2 infection incidence was 7.6% (n = 44). Risk of liver decompensation was significantly higher after infection (HR = 2.43 [1.01-5.86], p = 0.048) vs. non-infection. The time of IgG evaluation was similar in all patients (n = 74); IgG concentrations were significantly higher in compensated vs. decompensated patients (1.02 ± 0.35 pg/mL vs. 0.34 ± 0.16 pg/mL, p < 0.0001) and correlated with hemoglobin levels. The dysregulation of the innate immune response in patients with decompensated liver disease increased the risk of further decompensation following SARS-CoV-2, mainly due to a worsening of ascites.

Physiological network approach to prognosis in cirrhosis: A shifting paradigm

Decompensated liver disease is complicated by multi-organ failure and poor prognosis. The prognosis of patients with liver failure often dictates clinical management. Current prognostic models have focused on biomarkers considered as individual isolated units. Network physiology assesses the interactions among multiple physiological systems in health and disease irrespective of anatomical connectivity and defines the influence or dependence of one organ system on another. Indeed, recent applications of network mapping methods to patient data have shown improved prediction of response to therapy or prognosis in cirrhosis. Initially, different physical markers have been used to assess physiological coupling in cirrhosis including heart rate variability, heart rate turbulence, and skin temperature variability measures. Further, the parenclitic network analysis was recently applied showing that organ systems connectivity is impaired in patients with decompensated cirrhosis and can predict mortality in cirrhosis independent of current prognostic models while also providing valuable insights into the associated pathological pathways. Moreover, network mapping also predicts response to intravenous albumin in patients hospitalized with decompensated cirrhosis. Thus, this review highlights the importance of evaluating decompensated cirrhosis through the network physiologic prism. It emphasizes the limitations of current prognostic models and the values of network physiologic techniques in cirrhosis.

Innovative Management of a Difficult Case of Hepatic Hydrothorax

Hepatic hydrothorax affects 5%-15% of decompensated cirrhosis patients, with up to 26% being refractory to standard treatments. For those ineligible for transjugular intrahepatic systemic shunts or liver transplants, alternatives to repeated thoracentesis are limited but can include the insertion of an indwelling pleural catheter. We present the first case of the use of an automatic low-flow ascites pump (alfapump) to manage nonmalignant pleural effusion in an elderly patient with cirrhosis.

Associations of gallbladder and gallstone parameters with clinical outcomes in patients with cirrhosis

Background

Morphologic changes in the gallbladder and gallstones are common in cirrhotic patients, but their associations with outcomes of cirrhotic patients are unclear.

Methods

We retrospectively enrolled 206 cirrhotic patients and measured their gallbladder length and width, gallbladder wall thickness, presence of gallstones, and gallstones' length and width in axial contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) images. X-tile software was utilized to calculate the optimal cutoff values of these parameters for evaluating survival and hepatic decompensation events in the cirrhosis group. Their associations with survival were explored by Cox regression analyses and Kaplan-Meier curve analyses. Their associations with hepatic decompensation events were evaluated by competing risk analyses and Nelson-Aalen cumulative risk curve analyses where death was a competing event.

Results

Cirrhotic patients with gallbladder length < 72 mm had a significantly higher cumulative survival rate than those with a length of ≥ 72 mm (P = 0.049 by log-rank test), but gallbladder width, gallbladder wall thickness, presence of gallstones, and gallstones' length and width were not significantly associated with survival (P = 0.10, P = 0.14, P = 0.97, P = 0.73, and P = 0.73 by log-rank tests, respectively). Cirrhotic patients with gallbladder wall thickness < 3.4 mm had a significantly lower cumulative rate of hepatic decompensation events than those with a wall thickness of ≥ 3.4 mm (P = 0.02 by Gray's test), but gallbladder length and width, presence of gallstones, and gallstones' length and width were not significantly associated with hepatic decompensation events (P = 0.15, P = 0.15, P = 0.54, P = 0.76, and P = 0.54 by Gray's tests, respectively).

Conclusion

Changes in gallbladder length and gallbladder wall thickness, rather than gallstone parameters, may be in parallel with the long-term outcomes of cirrhotic patients.

Myosteatosis is closely associated with sarcopenia and significantly worse outcomes in patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Sarcopenia and myosteatosis are common in patients with cirrhosis. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of these muscle changes, their interrelations and their prognostic impact over a 12-month period.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective multicentre study involving 433 patients. Sarcopenia and myosteatosis were evaluated using computed tomography scans. The 1-year cumulative incidence of relevant events was assessed by competing risk analysis. We used a Fine-Gray model adjusted for known prognostic factors to evaluate the impact of sarcopenia and myosteatosis on mortality, hospitalization, and liver decompensation.

RESULTS

At enrolment, 166 patients presented with isolated myosteatosis, 36 with isolated sarcopenia, 135 with combined sarcopenia and myosteatosis and 96 patients showed no muscle changes. The 1-year cumulative incidence of death in patients with either sarcopenia and myosteatosis (13.8%) or isolated myosteatosis (13.4%) was over twice that of patients without muscle changes (5.2%) or with isolated sarcopenia (5.6%). The adjusted sub-hazard ratio for death in patients with muscle changes was 1.36 (95% CI 0.99-1.86, p = 0.058). The cumulative incidence of hospitalization was significantly higher in patients with combined sarcopenia and myosteatosis than in patients without muscle changes (adjusted sub-hazard ratio 1.18, 95% CI 1.04-1.35). The cumulative incidence of liver decompensation was greater in patients with combined sarcopenia and myosteatosis (p = 0.018) and those with isolated sarcopenia (p = 0.046) than in patients without muscle changes. Lastly, we found a strong correlation of function tests and frailty scores with the presence of muscle changes.

CONCLUSIONS

Myosteatosis, whether alone or combined with sarcopenia, is highly prevalent in patients with cirrhosis and is associated with significantly worse outcomes. The prognostic role of sarcopenia should always be evaluated in relation to the presence of myosteatosis.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

This study investigates the prognostic role of muscle changes in patients with cirrhosis. The novelty of this study is its multicentre, prospective nature and the fact that it distinguishes between the impact of individual muscle changes and their combination on prognosis in cirrhosis. This study highlights the prognostic role of myosteatosis, especially when combined with sarcopenia. On the other hand, the relevance of sarcopenia could be mitigated when considered together with myosteatosis. The implication from these findings is that sarcopenia should never be evaluated individually and that myosteatosis may play a dominant role in the prognosis of patients with cirrhosis.

Cerebral oxygenation and perfusion kinetics monitoring of military aircrew at high G using novel fNIRS wearable system

Introduction

Real-time physiological episode (PE) detection and management in aircrew operating high-performance aircraft (HPA) is crucial for the US Military. This paper addresses the unique challenges posed by high acceleration (G-force) in HPA aircrew and explores the potential of a novel wearable functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) system, named NIRSense Aerie, to continuously monitor cerebral oxygenation during high G-force exposure.

Methods

The NIRSense Aerie system is a flight-optimized, wearable fNIRS device designed to monitor tissue oxygenation 13-20 mm below the skin's surface. The system includes an optical frontend adhered to the forehead, an electronics module behind the earcup of aircrew helmets, and a custom adhesive for secure attachment. The fNIRS optical layout incorporates near-distance, middle-distance, and far-distance infrared emitters, a photodetector, and an accelerometer for motion measurements. Data processing involves the modified Beer-Lambert law for computing relative chromophore concentration changes. A human evaluation of the NIRSense Aerie was conducted on six subjects exposed to G-forces up to +9 Gz in an Aerospace Environmental Protection Laboratory centrifuge. fNIRS data, pulse oximetry, and electrocardiography (HR) were collected to analyze cerebral and superficial tissue oxygenation kinetics during G-loading and recovery.

Results

The NIRSense Aerie successfully captured cerebral deoxygenation responses during high G-force exposure, demonstrating its potential for continuous monitoring in challenging operational environments. Pulse oximetry was compromised during G-loading, emphasizing the system's advantage in uninterrupted cerebrovascular monitoring. Significant changes in oxygenation metrics were observed across G-loading levels, with distinct responses in Deoxy-Hb and Oxy-Hb concentrations. HR increased during G-loading, reflecting physiological stress and the anti-G straining maneuver.

Discussion

The NIRSense Aerie shows promise for real-time monitoring of aircrew physiological responses during high G-force exposure. Despite challenges, the system provides valuable insights into cerebral oxygenation kinetics. Future developments aim for miniaturization and optimization for enhanced aircrew comfort and wearability. This technology has potential for improving anti-G straining maneuver learning and retention through real-time cerebral oxygenation feedback during centrifuge training.

Rates, patterns, and predictors of specialty palliative care consultation among patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure

Background & Aims

There is growing acceptance that principles of palliative care should be integrated into the management of serious illnesses affecting the liver, such as acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). However, rates, patterns, and predictors of specialty palliative care consultation among patients with ACLF have not been well-described.

Methods

We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients hospitalized with ACLF between 1/1/2008 and 12/31/2018 using the VOCAL cohort. Patients were followed until 6/2021. We used mixed-effects regression analyses to identify significant patient and facility factors associated with palliative care consultation. We examined timing of consultation, the influence of ACLF characteristics, and facility-level variation on receipt of palliative care consultation.

Results

We identified 21,987 patients hospitalized with ACLF, of whom 30.5% received specialty palliative care consultation. Higher ACLF grade (ACLF-2 [odds ratio (OR) 1.82, 95% CI 1.67-1.99], ACLF-3 [OR 3.06, 95% CI 2.76-3.40]), prior specialty palliative care consultation (OR 2.62, 95% CI 2.36-2.91), and hepatocellular carcinoma (OR 2.10, 95% CI 1.89-2.33) were associated with consultation. Consultation occurred latest and closest to the time of death for patients with ACLF-3 compared to ACLF-1 and ACLF-2. Significant facility-level variation in consultation persisted among patients with ACLF-3, despite adjusting for multiple patient and facility factors.

Conclusion

In this large cohort of hospitalized patients with ACLF, specialty palliative care consultation was rare, more common in patients with higher grade ACLF, and tended to occur closer to the time of death for the sickest patients. Greater attention should be placed on earlier integration of palliative care during acute hospitalizations in patients with ACLF.

Impact and implications

Though palliative care consultation is recommended for patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure, there is no data demonstrating how often this occurs during hospitalizations, on a population level. We found that consultation occurs in only 30.5% of patients and occurs later for patients with grade 3 acute-on-chronic liver failure. Our data should provoke clinicians to urgently consider quality improvement efforts to integrate palliative care into the management of these seriously ill patients.

A Comparison of Normalization Techniques for Individual Baseline-Free Estimation of Absolute Hypovolemic Status Using a Porcine Model

Hypovolemic shock is one of the leading causes of death in the military. The current methods of assessing hypovolemia in field settings rely on a clinician assessment of vital signs, which is an unreliable assessment of hypovolemia severity. These methods often detect hypovolemia when interventional methods are ineffective. Therefore, there is a need to develop real-time sensing methods for the early detection of hypovolemia. Previously, our group developed a random-forest model that successfully estimated absolute blood-volume status (ABVS) from noninvasive wearable sensor data for a porcine model (n = 6). However, this model required normalizing ABVS data using individual baseline data, which may not be present in crisis situations where a wearable sensor might be placed on a patient by the attending clinician. We address this barrier by examining seven individual baseline-free normalization techniques. Using a feature-specific global mean from the ABVS and an external dataset for normalization demonstrated similar performance metrics compared to no normalization (normalization: R2 = 0.82 ± 0.025|0.80 ± 0.032, AUC = 0.86 ± 5.5 × 10-3|0.86 ± 0.013, RMSE = 28.30 ± 0.63%|27.68 ± 0.80%; no normalization: R2 = 0.81 ± 0.045, AUC = 0.86 ± 8.9 × 10-3, RMSE = 28.89 ± 0.84%). This demonstrates that normalization may not be required and develops a foundation for individual baseline-free ABVS prediction.

Vulnerable period in heart failure: a window of opportunity for the optimization of treatment - a statement by Mexican experts

Acute heart failure (HF) is associated with poor prognosis. After the acute event, there is a vulnerable period during which the patient has a marked risk of readmission or death. Therefore, early optimization of treatment is mandatory during the vulnerable period. The objective of this article is to provide recommendations to address the management of patients with HF during the vulnerable period from a practical point of view. A group of Mexican experts met to prepare a consensus document. The vulnerable period, with a duration of up to 6 months after the acute event - either hospitalization, visit to the emergency department or the outpatient clinic/day hospital - represents a real window of opportunity to improve outcomes for these patients. To best individualize the recommendations, the management strategies were divided into three periods (early, intermediate and late vulnerable period), including not only therapeutic options but also evaluation and education. Importantly, the recommendations are addressed to the entire cardiology team, including physicians and nurses, but also other specialists implicated in the management of these patients. In conclusion, this document represents an opportunity to improve the management of this population at high risk, with the aim of reducing the burden of HF.

Predicting survival in patients with 'non-high-risk' acute variceal bleeding receiving β-blockers+ligation to prevent re-bleeding

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Pre-emptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is the treatment of choice for high-risk acute variceal bleeding (AVB; i.e., Child-Turcotte-Pugh [CTP] B8-9+active bleeding/C10-13). Nevertheless, some 'non-high-risk' patients have poor outcomes despite the combination of non-selective beta-blockers and endoscopic variceal ligation for secondary prophylaxis. We investigated prognostic factors for re-bleeding and mortality in 'non-high-risk' AVB to identify subgroups who may benefit from more potent treatments (i.e., TIPS) to prevent further decompensation and mortality.

METHODS

A total of 2,225 adults with cirrhosis and variceal bleeding were prospectively recruited at 34 centres between 2011-2015; for the purpose of this study, case definitions and information on prognostic indicators at index AVB and on day 5 were further refined in low-risk patients, of whom 581 (without failure to control bleeding or contraindications to TIPS) who were managed by non-selective beta-blockers/endoscopic variceal ligation, were finally included. Patients were followed for 1 year.

RESULTS

Overall, 90 patients (15%) re-bled and 70 (12%) patients died during follow-up. Using clinical routine data, no meaningful predictors of re-bleeding were identified. However, re-bleeding (included as a time-dependent co-variable) increased mortality, even after accounting for differences in patient characteristics (adjusted cause-specific hazard ratio: 2.57; 95% CI 1.43-4.62; p = 0.002). A nomogram including CTP, creatinine, and sodium measured at baseline accurately (concordance: 0.752) stratified the risk of death.

CONCLUSION

The majority of 'non-high-risk' patients with AVB have an excellent prognosis, if treated according to current recommendations. However, about one-fifth of patients, i.e. those with CTP ≥8 and/or high creatinine levels or hyponatremia, have a considerable risk of death within 1 year of the index bleed. Future clinical trials should investigate whether elective TIPS placement reduces mortality in these patients.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

Pre-emptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt placement improves outcomes in high-risk acute variceal bleeding; nevertheless, some 'non-high-risk' patients have poor outcomes despite the combination of non-selective beta-blockers and endoscopic variceal ligation. This is the first large-scale study investigating prognostic factors for re-bleeding and mortality in 'non-high-risk' acute variceal bleeding. While no clinically meaningful predictors were identified for re-bleeding, we developed a nomogram integrating baseline Child-Turcotte-Pugh score, creatinine, and sodium to stratify mortality risk. Our study paves the way for future clinical trials evaluating whether elective transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt placement improves outcomes in presumably 'non-high-risk' patients who are identified as being at increased risk of death.

Low Urinary Free Cortisol as a Risk Factor for Patients with Variceal Bleeding

Background and Objectives: Specificity and reliability issues of the current cortisol assessment methods lead to limitations on the accurate assessment of relative adrenal insufficiency. Although free cortisol provides a more accurate evaluation of adrenal cortisol production, the expense and time-consuming nature of these assays make them impractical for routine use. Research has, thus, focused on alternative methods, such as indirectly measuring free cortisol using Coolens' equation or directly assessing salivary cortisol concentration, which is considered a more favorable approach despite associated challenges like sampling issues and infection risks. The aim of this study was to explore correlations between 24 h urinary free cortisol (UFC), free plasma cortisol, serum total cortisol, and salivary cortisol as potential reliable indices of free cortisol in the setting of variceal bleeding. Additionally, we assessed the predictive value of UFC for 6-week mortality and 5-day treatment failure in patients with liver cirrhosis and variceal bleeding. Materials and Methods: A total of 40 outpatients with liver cirrhosis and variceal bleeding were enrolled. Free cortisol levels in serum, saliva, and urine were assessed using the electrochemiluminescence immunoassay method. For the measurement of plasma-free cortisol, a single quadrupole mass spectrometer was employed. The quantification of free cortisol was fulfilled by analyzing the signal response in the negative ESI-MS mode. Results: UFC was significantly correlated to free plasma cortisol. Negative correlations were demonstrated between UFC, the Child-Pugh (CP) score, and C reactive protein (CRP) levels. In the multivariate analysis, CP stage C was associated with 6-week mortality risk and portal vein thrombosis with 5-day treatment failure using Cox regression and binary logistic regression analyses, respectively. Patients who experienced rebleeding, infection, or death (or any combination of these events) presented with lower levels of UFC. Conclusions: This study suggests that low levels of UFC may impose a risk factor for patients with liver cirrhosis and variceal bleeding. The use of UFC as an index of adrenal cortisol production in variceal bleeding warrants further investigation.

Statins in Cirrhosis: Hope or Hype?

In recent years, studies have demonstrated the benefits of statins in a range of chronic diseases separate from cardiovascular outcomes. Early studies in the context of chronic liver disease have suggested favorable effects of statins leading to slowed fibrosis progression, reduced portal pressures, decreased rates of hepatic decompensation, and improved survival. This has increased interest in the potential role that statins may have in the management of chronic liver disease and cirrhosis, though many questions remain unanswered, including concerns regarding the safety of higher dose statins in patients with advanced decompensated cirrhosis. In this review, we provide an update on the current literature addressing the use of statins in patients with cirrhosis and highlight areas in which additional studies are needed.

Predictors of Short-term Mortality in Patients of Cirrhosis of Liver Presenting as Acute Kidney Injury: An In-hospital Prospective Observational Study

Background

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is known to be associated with increased short-term mortality among cirrhotic patients. On this background, we designed this study to evaluate various causes of AKI among admitted patients with cirrhosis of liver and predictors of 90-day mortality.

Methods

One hundred and two consecutive adult patients with cirrhosis of liver with AKI hospitalized between November 2016 and March 2018 were enrolled in this prospective study. Their detailed clinical profile, including biochemical parameters, the etiology of AKI, and their clinical outcome of survival or mortality at 90-days, were recorded.

Results

The most common causes of AKI were infections, followed by hypovolemia, seen in 55.88% and 31.37% of the patients, respectively. Hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) was seen in 10.78%, while parenchymal renal disease was the least common (1.9%). The in-hospital mortality rate was 28.4%, while 90-day mortality was 39.21%. The HRS group had a high 90-day mortality rate of 54.54%. ROC analysis of various biochemical parameters revealed that serum creatinine (sCr), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), International Normalized Ratio (INR), and Neutrophil-Lymphocyte ratio (NLR), followed by Child Turcotte Pugh (CTP), had high area under the curves of 0.785, 0.773, 0.747, 0.740, and 0.718, respectively, for the prediction of 90-day mortality.

Conclusion

Infection is the commonest cause of AKI in cirrhosis; however, mortality in patients with HRS-AKI is higher than that in those with infection-related AKI. Serum creatinine at admission, INR, NLR, and CTP scores predict short-term mortality among patients with AKI in cirrhosis. Further, large prospective studies are needed to confirm these findings.

Validation of non-invasive diagnosis of CSPH in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease according to Baveno VII

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Baveno VII consensus introduced the non-invasive criteria of clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) using liver stiffness measurement (LSM). We evaluated the usefulness of the Baveno VII criteria to predict the risk of decompensation in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD).

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 1966 patients with cACLD. Patients were categorized into four groups (CSPH excluded (n = 619), grey zone (low risk of CSPH (n = 699), high risk of CSPH (n = 207)), and CSPH included (n = 441)) according to Baveno VII consensus. The risk of events was estimated using a Fine and Gray competing risk regression analysis, with liver transplantation and death as competing events. We calculated standardized hazard ratios (sHR) to assess the relative risk of decompensation.

RESULTS

Among 1966 patients, 178 developed decompensations over a median follow-up of 3.06 (IQR: 1.03-6.00) years. Patients with CSPH had the highest decompensation risk, followed by the grey zone high-risk group, grey zone low-risk group, and those without CSPH with 3-year cumulative risks of 22%, 12%, 3.3%, and 1.4% respectively (p < .001). Compared to CSPH excluded group, CSPH included group (sHR: 8.00, 95% CI: 4.00-16.0), grey zone high-risk group (sHR: 6.57, 95% CI: 3.16-13.6), grey zone low-risk group (sHR: 2.15, 95% CI: 1.04-4.41) had significantly higher risk of decompensation (Gray's test p < .01).

CONCLUSION

Non-invasive diagnosis of CSPH according to the Baveno VII criteria can stratify the risk of decompensation.

[Liver Cirrhosis]

INTRODUCTION

Cirrhosis is a common disease with high morbidity and mortality. In industrialised countries, the most common causes of cirrhosis are the alcoholic liver disease, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and chronic viral hepatitis. Cirrhosis is often diagnosed late, as it can be asymptomatic for a long time. Therefore, hepatopathy screening in high-risk patients and fibrosis surveillance using the ultrasound, in the presence of a chronic hepatopathy are essential. A liver biopsy is necessary to confirm the diagnosis. With optimal therapy, in some cases, cirrhosis is preventable and potentially reversible in others. In the stage of decompensation, typically characterised by ascites, patients often die from recurrent infections or hepatocellular carcinoma unless cured by liver transplantation. The prevention and treatment of complications as well as the evaluation of a transplant require cooperation with a centre hospital.

Hypocoagulability in Children With Decompensated Chronic Liver Disease and Sepsis: Assessment by Thromboelastography

Objective

To evaluate the coagulation status of children with decompensated chronic liver disease (DCLD) and infection and factors affecting it using thromboelastography (TEG).

Methods

Coagulation status of children admitted with DCLD and infection was assessed by international normalized ratio (INR), platelet count, and TEG [reaction time (R), kinetic time (K), α-angle (AA), maximum amplitude (MA), coagulation index (CI), and lysis index (LY30)] at admission and at 7-14 days after treatment. CI < -3 represents hypocoagulable state. Clinical profile including systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), infection severity, bleeding, treatment response, and outcome were noted.

Results

Thirty children (21 boys, median (IQR) age 78 [15.7-180] months) were studied prospectively. At admission, 29 (96.7%) had prolonged INR, 24 (80%) had thrombocytopenia, and 17 (56.6%) were hypocoagulable by TEG. Nine of 30 (30%) had normal TEG but deranged INR and platelets. Nineteen (63.3%) cases had SIRS, 11 (36.6%) had severe sepsis, and 8 (26.6%) had bleeding. Hypocoagulable state was common in severe sepsis than sepsis/infection (81.1% versus 42.1%; P = 0.05) and persistent (n = 4) versus recovered SIRS (n = 15, 100% versus 33%; P = 0.03). Bleeders had prolonged R-time (7.8 versus 5.4 min; P = 0.03), smaller MA (30.2 versus 47 mm; P = 0.05), and α-angle (40.4 versus 62.9; P = 0.03) but similar INR and platelets than nonbleeders. Six patients (20%) had poor in-hospital outcomes; R-time ≥8.5 min predicted mortality with high sensitivity (83%) and specificity (100%).

Conclusions

Fifth-seven percent of children with DCLD and infection were hypocoagulable by TEG. Severe sepsis and persistent SIRS worsened the coagulation status. TEG identifies bleeders better than INR and platelet count. R-time ≥8.5 min predicts a poor hospital outcome.

Quantifying days at home in patients with cirrhosis: A national cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Days at home (DAH) is a patient-centric metric developed by the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission, capturing annual health care use, including and beyond hospitalizations and mortality. We quantified DAH and assessed factors associated with DAH differences among patients with cirrhosis.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

Using a national claims database (Optum) between 2014 and 2018, we calculated DAH (365 minus mortality, inpatient, observation, postacute, and emergency department days). Among 20,776,597 patients, 63,477 had cirrhosis (median age, 66, 52% males, and 63% non-Hispanic White). Age-adjusted mean DAH for cirrhosis was 335.1 days (95% CI: 335.0 to 335.2) vs 360.1 (95% CI: 360.1 to 360.1) without cirrhosis. In mixed-effects linear regression, adjusted for demographic and clinical characteristics, patients with decompensated cirrhosis spent 15.2 days (95% CI: 14.4 to 15.8) in postacute, emergency, and observation settings and 13.8 days (95% CI: 13.5 to 14.0) hospitalized. Hepatic encephalopathy (-29.2 d, 95% CI: -30.4 to -28.0), ascites (-34.6 d, 95% CI: -35.3 to -33.9), and combined ascites and hepatic encephalopathy (-63.8 d, 95% CI: -65.0 to -62.6) were associated with decreased DAH. Variceal bleeding was not associated with a change in DAH (-0.2 d, 95% CI: -1.6 to +1.1). Among hospitalized patients, during the 365 days after index hospitalization, patients with cirrhosis had fewer age-adjusted DAH (272.8 d, 95% CI: 271.5 to 274.1) than congestive heart failure (288.0 d, 95% CI: 287.7 to 288.3) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (296.6 d, 95% CI: 296.3 to 297.0).

CONCLUSIONS

In this national study, we found that patients with cirrhosis spend as many, if not more, cumulative days receiving postacute, emergency, and observational care, as hospitalized care. Ultimately, up to 2 months of DAH are lost annually with the onset of liver decompensation. DAH may be a useful metric for patients and health systems alike.

Natural history of untreated HDV patients: Always a progressive disease?

A severe course has been described in early studies on chronic hepatitis D (CHD), with faster pace towards liver cirrhosis with subsequent high liver-related morbidity and mortality in the majority of patients. Earlier studies have included risk groups as people using intravenous drugs (PWID) or those with multiple co-morbidities. During the last decade, the epidemiological landscape of CHD has changed with domestic cases decreasing while increasing cases of CHD consisting of younger persons immigrating from endemic regions to low-endemic regions. Recently, further insights into the spectrum of the disease with an indolent disease course in a substantial proportion of persons with CHD have been gained. At diagnosis, ≥30%-50% had already established liver cirrhosis. Older age, liver cirrhosis, co-infection with HIV and lack of interferon (IFN) therapy are the main predictors of worse clinical outcome. The newly introduced and upcoming antivirals against CHD are highly anticipated, considering the historically low virological response rates to antiviral therapy. Further knowledge is needed to fully comprehend the natural course and the spectrum of this severe form of viral hepatitis. This is also to be able to evaluate the long-term effects of the new antivirals on disease progression.

Insulin-like growth factor 1 predicts decompensation and long-term prognosis in patients with compensated cirrhosis

AIM

Insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1), which is primarily produced in hepatocytes and is associated with liver functional reserve, plays a crucial role in the pathological condition of cirrhosis. This study aimed to investigate the usefulness of serum IGF-1 levels for predicting the long-term prognosis and decompensation development in patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

We retrospectively evaluated 148 patients with cirrhosis and divided them into three groups according to baseline IGF-1 levels: low (L)-, intermediate (I)-, and high (H)-IGF-1 groups. The cumulative survival rates were compared among these groups in compensated and decompensated cirrhosis, respectively. Significant and independent factors associated with mortality and decompensation development were identified using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis.

RESULTS

The median observation period was 57.1 (41.7-63.2) months. Thirty (20.3%) patients died of liver disease-related events and 21 (22.3%) patients with compensated cirrhosis developed decompensation. Multivariate analysis identified low serum IGF-1 levels as a significant and independent factor associated with mortality (all patients: hazard ratio [HR], 0.967; p = 0.004; patients with compensated cirrhosis: HR, 0.927; p = 0.002). The cumulative survival rates were significantly lower in the L-IGF-1 group than in the H-IGF-1 and I-IGF-1 groups (all patients: p < 0.001 and = 0.009; patients with compensated cirrhosis: p = 0.012 and 0.003, respectively). However, in decompensated cirrhosis, the cumulative survival rates demonstrated no significant differences among the three groups. The cumulative decompensation incidence rates were significantly higher in the L-IGF-1 group than in the H-IGF-1 and I-IGF-1 groups (p < 0.001 and = 0.009, respectively). Low serum IGF-1 levels were significantly and independently associated with decompensation development (HR, 0.939; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Low serum IGF-1 levels were significantly and independently associated with decompensation development and poor long-term prognosis in patients with compensated cirrhosis. Therefore, IGF-1 may be useful for predicting decompensation-related events and should be regularly monitored in the management of compensated phase.

Hepatic Venous Pressure Gradient Predicts Further Decompensation in Cirrhosis Patients with Acute Esophageal Variceal Bleeding

BACKGROUND

The role of hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) in predicting further decompensation in cirrhosis patients with acute variceal bleeding (AVB) is not known. We aimed to evaluate the role of HVPG in predicting further decompensation in cirrhosis patients with AVB Methods: In this prospective study, 145 patients with cirrhosis with esophageal or gastric AVB were included. HVPG was measured on the day of the AVB. Decompensating events occurring after 42-days of AVB were considered further decompensation.

RESULTS

The median age of the study cohort was 44 years; 88.3% males. The predominant etiology of cirrhosis was alcohol (46.2%). Overall, 40 (27.6%) patients developed further decompensation during median follow-up of 296 days following AVB. Gastro intestinal bleeding n = 27 (18.6%) and new-onset/worsening ascites n = 20 (13.8%) were the most common decompensating events. According to the multivariate model, HVPG was an independent predictor of any further decompensation in esophageal AVB patients but not in gastric variceal bleeding patients. HVPG cut-off of ≥16 mmHg predicted further decompensation in the esophageal AVB. However, HVPG was not an independent predictor of mortality.

CONCLUSION

HVPG measured during an episode of acute variceal hemorrhage from esophageal varices predicts further decompensating events in cirrhosis patients.