The natural course of binge-eating disorder: findings from a prospective, community-based study of adults

BACKGROUND

Epidemiological data offer conflicting views of the natural course of binge-eating disorder (BED), with large retrospective studies suggesting a protracted course and small prospective studies suggesting a briefer duration. We thus examined changes in BED diagnostic status in a prospective, community-based study that was larger and more representative with respect to sex, age of onset, and body mass index (BMI) than prior multi-year prospective studies.

METHODS

Probands and relatives with current DSM-IV BED (n = 156) from a family study of BED ('baseline') were selected for follow-up at 2.5 and 5 years. Probands were required to have BMI > 25 (women) or >27 (men). Diagnostic interviews and questionnaires were administered at all timepoints.

RESULTS

Of participants with follow-up data (n = 137), 78.1% were female, and 11.7% and 88.3% reported identifying as Black and White, respectively. At baseline, their mean age was 47.2 years, and mean BMI was 36.1. At 2.5 (and 5) years, 61.3% (45.7%), 23.4% (32.6%), and 15.3% (21.7%) of assessed participants exhibited full, sub-threshold, and no BED, respectively. No participants displayed anorexia or bulimia nervosa at follow-up timepoints. Median time to remission (i.e. no BED) exceeded 60 months, and median time to relapse (i.e. sub-threshold or full BED) after remission was 30 months. Two classes of machine learning methods did not consistently outperform random guessing at predicting time to remission from baseline demographic and clinical variables.

CONCLUSIONS

Among community-based adults with higher BMI, BED improves with time, but full remission often takes many years, and relapse is common.

Time Course of Asymptomatic Stenosis in Multiple Lumbar Spinal Stenosis-Five-Year Results of Selective Decompression of Symptomatic Levels

Background: In the diagnosis of lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS), finding stenosis with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) does not always correlate with symptoms such as sciatica or intermittent claudication. We perform decompression surgery only for cases where the levels diagnosed from neurological findings are symptomatic, even if multiple stenoses are observed on MRI. The objective of this study was to examine the time course of asymptomatic stenosis in patients with LSS after they underwent decompression surgery for symptomatic stenosis. Materials and Methods: The participants in this study comprised 137 LSS patients who underwent single-level L4-5 decompression surgery from 2003 to 2013. The dural sac cross-sectional area at the L3-4 disc level was calculated based on preoperative MRI. A cross-sectional area less than 50 mm2 was defined as stenosis. The patients were grouped, according to additional spinal stenosis at the L3-4 level, into a double group (16 cases) with L3-4 stenosis, and a single group (121 cases) without L3-4 stenosis. Incidences of new-onset symptoms originating from L3-4 and additional L3-4-level surgery were examined. Results: Five years after surgery, 98 cases (72%) completed follow-up. During follow-up, 2 of 12 patients in the double group (16.7%) and 9 of 86 patients in the single group (10.5%) presented with new-onset symptoms originating from L3-4, showing no significant difference between groups. Additional L3-4 surgery was performed for one patient (8.3%) in the double group and three patients (3.5%) in the single group; again, no significant difference was shown. Conclusion: Patients with asymptomatic L3-4 stenosis on preoperative MRI were not prone to develop new symptoms or need additional L3-4-level surgery within 5 years after surgery when compared to patients without preoperative L3-4 stenosis. These results indicate that prophylactic decompression for asymptomatic levels is unnecessary.

Naturalistic symptom trajectories of atypical anorexia nervosa, anorexia nervosa, and bulimia nervosa in a prospective cohort study of United States college students

OBJECTIVE

Research on the natural course of symptoms of atypical anorexia nervosa (AN) relative to AN and bulimia nervosa (BN) is limited yet needed to inform nosology and improve understanding of atypical AN. This study aimed to 1) characterize trajectories of eating disorder and internalizing (anxiety, depression) symptoms in college students with and without a history of atypical AN, AN, and BN; and 2) compare sex and race/ethnicity distributions across groups.

METHOD

United States college students who participated in Spit for Science™, a prospective cohort study, were classified as having a history of atypical AN (n = 125), AN (n = 160), BN (n = 617), or as non-eating-disorder controls (NCs, n = 5876). Generalized and linear mixed-effects models assessed group differences in eating and internalizing symptom trajectories, and logistic regression compared groups on sex and race/ethnicity distributions.

RESULTS

Atypical AN participants demonstrated elevated eating disorder and internalizing symptoms compared to NCs during college, but less severe symptoms than AN and BN participants. Although all eating disorder groups showed signs of improvement in fasting and driven exercise, purging and depression remained elevated. Atypical AN participants showed increasing anxiety and stable binge-eating trajectories compared to AN and/or BN participants. The atypical AN group comprised significantly more people of color than the AN group.

DISCUSSION

Findings underscore that atypical AN is a severe psychiatric disorder. As atypical AN may present as less severe than AN and BN and disproportionately affects people of color, clinicians should be mindful of biases that could delay diagnosis and care.

PUBLIC SIGNIFICANCE

College students with histories of atypical AN, AN, and BN demonstrated improvements in fasting and driven exercise and stable purging and depression levels. Atypical AN students showed worsening anxiety and stable binge-eating trajectories compared to favorable changes among AN and BN students. A higher percentage of atypical AN (vs. AN) students were people of color. Findings may improve the detection of atypical AN in college students.

Non-Pure Intestinal Phenotype as an Indicator of Progression in Sporadic Nonampullary Duodenal Adenomas: A Multicenter Retrospective Cohort Study

INTRODUCTION

We aimed to evaluate the natural course of sporadic nonampullary duodenal adenomas (SNDAs) and determine the risk factors of progression.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed the follow-up outcomes of patients with biopsy-diagnosed SNDA between April 2010 and March 2016 at 13 institutions. All initial biopsy specimens were centrally evaluated. Only those diagnosed with adenomas were included. Mucinous phenotypes were classified into pure intestinal and non-pure intestinal phenotypes. Cumulative incidence rates of carcinoma and tumor enlargement were evaluated. Tumor enlargement was defined as a ≥25% or 5-mm increase in tumor size.

RESULTS

Overall, 121 lesions were analyzed. Within a median observation period of 32.7 months, 5 lesions were diagnosed as carcinomas; the cumulative 5-year incidence of carcinoma was 9.5%. Male sex ( P = 0.046), initial lesion size ≥10 mm ( P = 0.044), and non-pure intestinal phenotype ( P = 0.019) were significantly associated with progression to carcinoma. Tumor enlargement was observed in 22 lesions, with a cumulative 5-year incidence of 33.9%. Initial lesion size ≥10 mm ( P < 0.001), erythematous lesion ( P = 0.002), high-grade adenoma ( P = 0.002), Ki67 negative ( P = 0.007), and non-pure intestinal phenotype ( P = 0.001) were risk factors of tumor enlargement. In a multivariate analysis, an initial lesion size ≥10 mm ( P = 0.010) and non-pure intestinal phenotype ( P = 0.046) were independent and significant risk factors of tumor enlargement.

DISCUSSION

Lesion size ≥10 mm and non-pure intestinal phenotype on initial biopsy are risk factors of cancer progression and tumor enlargement in cases with SNDA. Thus, management effectiveness may be improved by focusing on lesion size and the mucinous phenotype.

Prediction of Interval Growth of Lung Adenocarcinomas Manifesting as Persistent Subsolid Nodules ≤3 cm Based on Radiomic Features

RATIONALES AND OBJECTIVES

To investigate the prognostic value of the radiomic-based prediction model in predicting the interval growth rate of persistent subsolid nodules (SSNs) with an initial size of ≤ 3 cm manifesting as lung adenocarcinomas.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 133 patients (mean age, 59.02 years; male, 37.6%) with 133 SSNs who underwent a series of CT examinations at our hospital between 2012 and 2022 were included in this study. Forty-one radiomic features were extracted from each volumetric region of interest. Radiomic features combined with conventional clinical and semantic parameters were then selected for radiomic-based model building. To investigate the model performance in terms of substantial SSN growth and stage shift growth, the model performance was compared by the area under the curve (AUC) obtained by receiver operating characteristic analysis.

RESULTS

The mean follow-up period was 3.62 years. For substantial SSN growth, a radiomic-based model (Model 2) based on clinical characteristics, CT semantic features, and radiomic features yielded an AUCs of 0.869 (95% CI: 0.799-0.922). In comparison with Model 1 (clinical characteristics and CT semantic features), Model 2 performed better than Model 1 for substantial SSN growth (AUC model 1:0.793 versus AUC model 2:0.869, p = 0.028). A radiomic-based nomogram combining sex, follow-up period, and three radiomic features was built for substantial SSN growth prediction. For the stage shift growth, a radiomic-based model (Model 4) based on clinical characteristics, CT semantic features, and radiomic features yielded an AUCs of 0.883 (95% CI: 0.815-0.933). Compared with Model 3 (clinical characteristics and CT semantic features), Model 4 performed better than the model 3 for stage shift growth (AUC model 1: 0.769 versus AUC model 2: 0.883, p = 0.006). A radiomic-based nomogram combining the initial nodule size, SSN classification, follow-up period, and three radiomic features was built to predict the stage shift growth.

CONCLUSION

Radiomic-based models have superior utility in estimating the prognostic interval growth of patients with early lung adenocarcinomas (≤ 3 cm) than conventional clinical-semantic models in terms of substantial interval growth and stage shift growth, potentially guiding clinical decision-making with follow-up strategies of SSNs in personalized precision medicine.

Changes in insight throughout the natural four-year course of obsessive-compulsive disorder and its association with OCD severity and quality of life

Objective

Patients with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) and poor insight show higher symptom severity, lower quality of life (QoL), and a reduced treatment response compared to patients with good insight. Little is known about changes in insight. This study explored the course of insight and its association with OCD severity and QoL among 253 patients with OCD participating in the prospective naturalistic Netherlands Obsessive Compulsive Disorder Association (NOCDA) Study.

Results

In 70% of the participants with available insight data, the level of insight changed during the four-year course. Insight was most variable in participants with poor insight. Improvement of insight scores was statistically significantly associated with improvement of Y-BOCS scores (r = 0.19), but not with changes in QoL scores. Change in insight in the first 2 years was not statistically significantly predictive of OCD severity or QoL at four-year follow-up.

Conclusion

These findings suggest that patients' levels of insight may change during the natural four-year course of OCD and that improvement in the level of insight have a positive association with improvement in OCD severity.

A Progressive Spontaneous Cervical Compression Fracture Over Years Following Long-Term Corticosteroid Use

Spontaneous vertebral compression fractures in the cervical region can have a significant impact on a patient's condition even after surgical management. Due to the rarity of spontaneous cervical vertebral compression fractures and the lack of a comprehensive description of this condition, the establishment of a clear understanding of its natural course remains incomplete. In this case study, a 73-year-old woman on long-term corticosteroid therapy underwent combined anterior and posterior fixation for a spontaneous vertebral compression fracture at the C3-C4 level. The vertebral compression fracture gradually worsened over a span of four years. Following the surgery, the patient experienced a temporary improvement in her neurological symptoms. However, seven months after the second operation, an instrumentation failure resulted in the patient becoming bedridden. This highlights the importance of considering the potential long-term implications and monitoring patients closely even after surgical intervention.

Deconstructing the heterogeneity of alcohol use disorder: lifetime comorbid non-alcohol substance use disorder as a distinct behavioral phenotype?

BACKGROUND

Alcohol use disorder (AUD) is an etiologically and clinically heterogeneous condition. Accumulating evidence suggests that persons with lifetime histories of comorbid AUD and non-alcohol substance use disorder (DRUG) constitute an important subgroup of AUD. This study evaluated the distinctiveness of the comorbid AUD/DRUG behavioral phenotype in a community sample with respect to risk factors, AUD course features, and outcome variables assessed at age 30. Contrast groups included persons with histories of AUD only, DRUG only, and neither AUD nor DRUG.

METHODS

This research utilized a prospective study design with an age-based cohort (n = 732). Participants completed four comprehensive diagnostic evaluations during the high-risk periods of adolescence, emerging adulthood, and young adulthood.

RESULTS

The comorbid AUD/DRUG group was distinguished from the AUD only group by risk factors, AUD course features, and outcomes. Group differences in outcomes were also explained by overall substance use disorder (SUD) severity. Persons with AUD/DRUG comorbidity were indistinguishable from those with DRUG only histories with respect to risk factors and outcomes but demonstrated greater overall SUD severity. Persons with AUD only were indistinguishable from those with neither AUD nor DRUG histories in risk factor endorsements and were mostly similar in outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings collectively suggest that young adults with histories of AUD only and those with comorbid AUD/DRUG are drawn from dissimilar populations. Similarities between the AUD only group with those absent AUD or DRUG histories are likely related to the former group's developmentally limited AUD course accompanied by relatively few or short-lived alcohol-related problems.

Is the Y90-radioembolization treatment effective on the intermediate-advanced stage of hepatocellular carcinoma and what is the albumin-bilirubin score's prediction factor for survival?

Background and Aim

Radioembolization (RE) is a one of the palliative treatments that have been used to down stage and/or increase the survival time in intermediate-advanced stages of HCC. We aimed to evaluate the clinical impact of RE and the clinical use of the albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score as a predictor for survival in HCC patients.

Materials and Methods

Fifty-nine unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients were enrolled. RE was performed in 28 of them (group 1) and 31 patients were followed up in the natural course (NC) (group 2). Patients were classified according to the Child-Pugh score (only cirrhotic patients), Barcelona clinic liver cancer (BCLC) staging, and ALBI scores were also calculated.

Results

All patients in Group 1 were cirrhotic and their BCLC stages were as follows: 60.7% stage B and 39.3% stage C. In Group 2, 83.9% of patients were cirrhotic and their BCLC stages were as follows: 9.7% stage B, 51.6% stage C, and 38.7% stage D. Mortality rates were 82% and 100% in Groups 1 and 2, respectively. The median overall survival (OS) was 13.5 months (95% CI: 10.4-16.6 months) and 4.5 months (95% CI: 3.5-5.5 months) in Groups 1 and 2, respectively (p=0.000). When RE was applied to patients with ALBI Grade 1 and 2, the median OS was statistically higher than in the NC group, respectively (p<0.001, p<0.001).

Conclusion

RE is an effective treatment method at the advanced stages of HCC. The ALBI score is a more useful and practical than the other prognostic tools.

LONG-TERM EVOLUTION OF MYOPIC RETINOSCHISIS WITH A DOME-SHAPED MACULA AND PREDICTORS OF PROGRESSION AND VISUAL PROGNOSIS

PURPOSE

To study the long-term natural course of myopic retinoschisis (MRS) with a dome-shaped macula (DSM) and to identify the factors affecting its development and visual prognosis.

METHODS

In this retrospective case series study, we followed 25 MRS eyes with a DSM and 68 MRS eyes without a DSM for at least two years and observed changes in optical coherence tomography morphologic features and best-corrected visual acuity.

RESULTS

During the mean follow-up of 48.3 ± 13.24 months, the difference in the rate of MRS progression between the DSM and non-DSM groups was not significant ( P = 0.7462). In the DSM group, the patients whose MRS progressed were older and had a higher refractive error than those whose MRS was stable or improved ( P = 0.0301 and 0.0166, respectively). The patients whose DSM was located in the central fovea had a significantly higher progression rate than those whose DSM was located in the parafovea ( P = 0.0421). For all DSM eyes, BCVA did not decrease significantly in eyes with extrafoveal retinoschisis ( P = 0.2500), patients whose best-corrected visual acuity decreased more than two lines had a greater central foveal thickness initially than those whose best-corrected visual acuity decreased less than two lines during the follow-up period ( P = 0.0478).

CONCLUSION

A DSM did not delay the progression of MRS. The development of MRS in DSM eyes was associated with age, myopic degree, and DSM location. A higher schisis cavity predicted visual deterioration, and a DSM protected visual function in extrafoveal MRS eyes during the follow-up period.

Long-term follow-up of persistent pulmonary subsolid nodules: Natural course of pure, heterogeneous, and real part-solid ground-glass nodules

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have suggested the applicability of three classifications of subsolid nodules (SSNs). However, few studies have unraveled the natural history of the three types of SSNs.

METHODS

A retrospective study from two medical centers between November 2007 and November 2017 was conducted to explore the long-term follow-up results of three different types of SSNs, which were divided into pure ground-glass nodules (pGGNs), heterogeneous ground-glass nodules (hGGNs), and real part-solid nodules (rPSNs).

RESULTS

A total of 306 consecutive patients, including 361 SSNs with long-term follow-up, were reviewed. The median growth times of pGGNs, hGGNs, and rPSNs were 7.7, 6.0, and 2.0 years, respectively. For pGGNs, the median period of development into rPSNs was 4.6 years, while that of hGGNs was 1.8 years, and the time from pGGNs to hGGNs was 3.1 years (p < 0.05). In SSNs with an initial lung window consolidation tumor ratio (LW-CTR) >0.5 and mediastinum window (MW)-CTR >0.2, all cases with growth were identified within 5 years. Meanwhile, in SSNs whose LW-CTR and MW-CTR were 0, it took over 5 years to detect nodular growth. Pathologically, 90.6% of initial SSNs with LW-CTR >0 were invasive carcinomas (invasive adenocarcinoma and micro-invasive adenocarcinoma). Among patients with rPSNs in the initial state, 100.0% of the final pathological results were invasive carcinoma. Cox regression showed that age (p = 0.038), initial maximal diameter (p < 0.001), and LW-CTR (p = 0.002) were independent risk factors for SSN growth.

CONCLUSIONS

pGGNs, hGGNs, and rPSNs have significantly different natural histories. Age, initial nodule diameter, and LW-CTR are important risk factors for SSN growth.

Modifiable vascular risk factors in patients with cerebral and spinal cavernous malformations: a complete 10-year follow-up study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The aim was to investigate the effect of modifiable vascular risk factors on the risk of first and recurrent bleeding for patients with a cavernous malformation (CM) of the central nervous system (CNS) over a 10-year period.

METHODS

A retrospective review of our CM institutional database was performed spanning from 2003 to 2021. The inclusion criteria were non-missing serial magnetic resonance imaging studies and clinical baseline metrics such as vascular risk factors. The exclusion criteria were patients who underwent surgical CM removal and patients with less than a decade of follow-up. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses were performed to determine the cumulative risk (10 years) of hemorrhage.

RESULTS

Eighty-nine patients with a CM of the CNS were included. Our results showed a non-significant increased risk of hemorrhage during 10 years of follow-up in patients using nicotine (hazard ratio 2.11, 95% confidence interval 0.86-5.21) and in patients with diabetes (hazard ratio 3.25, 95% confidence interval 0.71-14.81). For the presence of modifiable vascular risk factors at study baseline different cumulative 10-year risks of bleeding were observed: arterial hypertension 42.9% (18.8%-70.4%); diabetes 66.7% (12.5%-98.2%); hyperlipidemia 30% (8.1%-64.6%); active nicotine abuse 50% (24.1%-76%); and obesity 22.2% (4%-59.8%). Overall cumulative (10-year) hemorrhage risk was 30.3% (21.3%-41.1%).

CONCLUSIONS

The probability of hemorrhage in untreated CNS CM patients increases progressively within a decade of follow-up. None of the modifiable vascular risk factors showed strong indication for an influence on hemorrhage risk, but our findings may suggest a more aggressive course in patients with active nicotine abuse or suffering from diabetes.

Natural course and risk factors of moyamoya disease with unruptured intracranial aneurysm

Background and objective

The natural course and risk factors of moyamoya disease (MMD) associated with unruptured intracranial aneurysms involving stenosed parental arteries are scarcely studied. This study aimed to elucidate the natural course of MMD and its associated risk factors in patients with MMD with unruptured aneurysms.

Methods

Between September 2006 and October 2021, patients with MMD with intracranial aneurysms at our center were examined. The natural course, clinical features, radiological features, and follow-up outcomes after revascularization were analyzed.

Results

This study included 42 patients with MMD with intracranial aneurysms (42 aneurysms). The age distribution of MMD cases ranged from 6 to 69 years, with four children (9.5%) and 38 adults (90.5%). A total of 17 male and 25 female subjects were included (male-to-female ratio: 1:1.47). The first symptom was cerebral ischemia in 28 cases, and cerebral hemorrhage occurred in 14 cases. There were 35 trunk aneurysms and seven peripheral aneurysms. There were 34 small aneurysms (<5 mm) and eight medium aneurysms (5-15 mm). During the average clinical follow-up period of 37.90 ± 32.53 months, there was no rupture or bleeding from aneurysms. Twenty-seven of these patients underwent a cerebral angiography review, in which it was found that one aneurysm had enlarged, 16 had remained unchanged, and 10 had shrunk or disappeared. A correlation exists between the reduction or disappearance of aneurysms and the progression of the Suzuki stages of MMD (P = 0.015). Nineteen patients underwent EDAS on the aneurysm side, and nine aneurysms disappeared, while eight patients did not undergo EDAS on the aneurysm side and one aneurysm disappeared.

Conclusion

The risk of rupture and hemorrhage of unruptured intracranial aneurysms is low when the parent artery already has stenotic lesions, thus, direct intervention may not be necessary for such aneurysms. The progression of the Suzuki stage of moyamoya disease may play a role in the shrinkage or disappearance of the aneurysms, thereby decreasing the risk of rupture and hemorrhage. Encephaloduroarteriosynangiosis (EDAS) surgery may also help promote atrophy or even the disappearance of the aneurysm, thus reducing the risk of further rupture and bleeding.

Central nervous system cavernous malformations: cross-sectional study assessing rebleeding risk after a second haemorrhage

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The purpose of this study was to investigate the 5-year risk of a third bleeding event in cavernous malformations (CMs) of the central nervous system.

METHODS

Patients with cerebral or spinal CMs treated between 2003 and 2021 were screened using our institutional database. Patients with a complete magnetic resonance imaging dataset, clinical baseline characteristics, and history of two bleeding events were included. Patients who underwent surgical CM removal were excluded. Neurological functional status was obtained using the modified Rankin Scale score at the second and third bleeding. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses were performed to determine the cumulative 5-year risk for a third haemorrhage.

RESULTS

Forty-two patients were included. Cox regression analysis adjusted for age and sex did not identify risk factors for a third haemorrhage. 37% of patients experienced neurological deterioration after the third haemorrhage (p = 0.019). The cumulative 5-year risk of a third bleeding was 66.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 50.4%-80%) for the whole cohort, 65.9% (95% CI 49.3%-79.5%) for patients with bleeding at initial diagnosis, 72.7% (95% CI 39.3%-92.7%) for patients with a developmental venous anomaly, 76.9% (95% CI 55.9%-90.3%) for patients with CM localization to the brainstem and 75% (95% CI 50.6%-90.4%) for patients suffering from familial CM disease.

CONCLUSIONS

During an untreated 5-year follow-up after a second haemorrhage, a significantly increased risk of a third haemorrhage compared to the known risk of a first and second bleeding event was identified. The third bleeding was significantly associated with neurological deterioration. These findings may justify a surgical treatment after a second bleeding event.

Active expectancy as alternative to treatment for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 in women aged 25 to 30 years: ExCIN2-a prospective clinical multicenter cohort study

BACKGROUND

The management of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 is a clinical dilemma. Cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 is considered a cancer precursor and is always treated with excision. Most of the cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 1 cases regress spontaneously, and it is internationally mostly monitored with expectant management. Surgical treatment of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia entails increased risk of preterm birth in future pregnancies. Cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 in women aged under 25 years is quite well-studied; the regression rate is high and the cervical cancer risk is low. Cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 in women aged 25 years and above, in whom the risk of occult cancer is higher, has been less studied.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to evaluate the natural course, over 2 years, of untreated cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 in women aged 25 to 30 years and its association with human papillomavirus 16.

STUDY DESIGN

The study was conducted as a prospective longitudinal multicenter clinical study during February 2017 to June 2021 at 5 colposcopy clinics managing referrals after abnormal cervical screening in Region Västra Götaland, Sweden. The per protocol group comprised 127 women, aged 25 to 30 years, with fully visible squamocolumnar junction and histologically verified cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2. The patients were followed up for 2 years with colposcopy, cytology, human papillomavirus tests, and at least 2 cervical biopsies every 6 months until progression or regression. The main outcome measures were the rates of regression of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 at 6, 12, 18, and 24 months in cases with human papillomavirus 16 and those without human papillomavirus 16. The secondary outcomes were persistence and progression.

RESULTS

In the per protocol analysis, partial or total regression during the 2-year period was found in 72% of patients (95% confidence interval, 63-79). In patients with human papillomavirus 16, the regression rate was 51% (95% confidence interval, 36-66) and the progression rate was 47% (95% confidence interval, 32-62). In the human papillomavirus-non-16 group, 83% (95% confidence interval, 73-90) regressed and 16% (95% confidence interval, 9-26) progressed. Most of the regression and progression in both the groups occurred within 15 months. The difference in regression between human papillomavirus 16 and human papillomavirus-non-16 cases was statistically significant (P value=.0001), as was the difference in progression (P=.0002).

CONCLUSION

The regression rate of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 is high, and human papillomavirus 16 is a strong determinant of the natural course. Patients aged 25 to 30 years with a fully visible squamocolumnar junction and without human papillomavirus 16 should generally be recommended active surveillance for 15 months, whereas immediate treatment should be considered in cases with human papillomavirus 16.

Medication intake and hemorrhage risk in patients with familial cerebral cavernous malformations

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to analyze the impact of medication intake on hemorrhage risk in patients with familial cerebral cavernous malformation (FCCM).

METHODS

The authors' institutional database was screened for patients with FCCM who had been admitted to their department between 2003 and 2020. Patients with a complete magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data set, evidence of multiple CCMs, clinical baseline characteristics, and follow-up (FU) examination were included in the study. The authors assessed the influence of medication intake on first or recurrent intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) using univariate and multivariate logistic regression adjusted for age and sex. The longitudinal cumulative 5-year risk of hemorrhage was calculated by applying Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses adjusted for age and sex.

RESULTS

Two hundred five patients with FCCMs were included in the study. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed ICH as a predictor for recurrent hemorrhage during the 5-year FU. The authors also noted a tendency toward a decreased association with ICH during FU in patients on statin medication (HR 0.22, 95% CI 0.03-1.68, p = 0.143), although the relationship was not statistically significant. No bleeding events were observed in patients on antithrombotic therapy. Kaplan-Meier analysis and log-rank test showed a tendency toward a low risk of ICH during FU in patients on antithrombotic therapy (p = 0.085), as well as those on statin therapy (p = 0.193). The cumulative 5-year risk of bleeding was 22.82% (95% CI 17.33%-29.38%) for the entire cohort, 31.41% (95% CI 23.26%-40.83%) for patients with a history of ICH, 26.54% (95% CI 11.13%-49.7%) for individuals on beta-blocker medication, 6.25% (95% CI 0.33%-32.29%) for patients on statin medication, and 0% (95% CI 0%-30.13%) for patients on antithrombotic medication.

CONCLUSIONS

ICH at diagnosis was identified as a risk factor for recurrent hemorrhage. Although the relationships were not statistically significant, statin and antithrombotic medication tended to be associated with decreased bleeding events.

Natural course of Rathke's cleft cysts and risk factors for progression

OBJECTIVE

Rathke's cleft cysts (RCCs) are relatively common and often detected incidentally. They are usually asymptomatic and managed conservatively. However, little is known about their natural history. Thus, the authors aimed to examine the natural course of RCCs and identify the risk factors for their progression.

METHODS

This retrospective study examined 229 patients (median age 43.0 years) diagnosed with RCCs by MRI and followed up without surgery (median period 36.6 months). The median cyst height on the initial MRI was 10 mm. Progression or regression of RCC was defined as cyst height changes of ≥ 1 mm.

RESULTS

In total, 23 (10.0%) RCCs progressed, whereas 73 (31.9%) RCCs spontaneously regressed. The remaining 133 were noted to be stable throughout the follow-up period. Patients with progressed RCCs were significantly older than those with stable RCCs. In patients with acute headache as an initial symptom, RCCs were significantly more likely to spontaneously regress. New symptoms occurred in 6 patients, 5 of whom underwent surgery for RCC progression. Of these 6 patients, 1 patient had persistent adrenocorticotropic hormone deficiency and 1 patient developed diabetes insipidus. Kaplan-Meier analysis results showed RCC progression and new symptom development rates to be 12.0% and 4.1% at 5 years and 13.7% and 5.7% at 10 years, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

RCCs rarely progress or cause new symptoms in the long term. Patients with asymptomatic RCC should be followed up for at least 5 years to ensure RCC inactivity. RCCs in older adults may require greater surveillance.

Natural Course of Fetal Hyaloid Artery: SlowflowHD Longitudinal Study

OBJECTIVE

To assess the natural course of the fetal hyaloid artery (FHA) using SlowflowHD during pregnancy.

METHODS

One-hundred and eighteen normal fetuses were studied longitudinally using SlowflowHD to assess the natural course of FHA at 18-21 + 6, 28-31 + 6, and after 35 weeks of gestation. Blood flow of FHA with/without its branches (BF) was evaluated using SlowflowHD, and the band of FHA without blood flow (Band) was identified in each gestational period. The natural course of FHA was classified into six types: Type A, not detected (ND) in each gestational period; Type B, Band at 18-21 + 6 weeks; Type C, Band at 18-21 + 6 and 28-31 + 6 weeks; Type D, BF at 18-21 + 6 weeks; Type E, BF at 18-21 + 6 weeks and Band at 28-31 + 6 weeks; Type F, BF at 18-21 + 6 and 28-31 + 6 weeks.

RESULTS

BF, Band, and ND were 83.5, 15.5, and 1.0% at 18-21 + 6 weeks, 8.8, 15.5, and 75.7% at 28-31 + 6 weeks, and 0, 0, and 100% after 35 weeks, respectively. Type A was 1.0%, Type B was 13.6%, Type C was 1.9%, Type D was 61.2%, Type E was 13.6%, and Type F was 8.7%.

CONCLUSIONS

The presence of FHA blood flow before 30 weeks of gestation should be regarded as a physiologic phenomenon in normal fetuses.

Pediatric brainstem cavernous malformations: 2-center experience in 40 children

OBJECTIVE

Brainstem cavernous malformations (BSCMs) are relatively uncommon, low-flow vascular lesions in children. Given the paucity of data, guidelines regarding the clinical management of BSCMs in children are lacking and the surgical indication is most commonly based on an individual surgeon's judgment and experience. The goal in this study was to evaluate the clinical behavior of BSCMs in childhood and the long-term outcome in children managed conservatively and surgically.

METHODS

This was an observational, retrospective study including all children with BSCMs who were followed at 2 institutions between 2008 and 2020.

RESULTS

The study population consisted of 40 children (27 boys, 67.5%) with a mean age of 11.4 years. Twenty-three children (57.5%) were managed conservatively, whereas 17 children (42.5%) underwent resection of BSCMs. An aggressive clinical course was observed in 13 children (32.5%), who experienced multiple hemorrhages with a progressive pattern of neurological decline. Multiple BSCMs were observed in 8 patients, of whom 3 patients presented with a complex of multiple tightly attached BSCMs and posed a significant therapeutic challenge. The overall long-term outcome was favorable (modified Rankin Scale [mRS] scores 0-2) in 36 patients (90%), whereas an unfavorable outcome (mRS scores 3 and 4) was seen in 4 children (10%). An mRS score of 5 or 6 was not observed. The mean (± SD) follow-up was 88.0 (± 92.6) months.

CONCLUSIONS

The clinical course of BSCMs in children is highly variable, with benign lesions on the one hand and highly aggressive lesions with repetitive hemorrhages on the other. Given the greater life expectancy and the known higher functional recovery in children, surgical treatment should be considered early in young patients presenting with surgically accessible lesions and an aggressive clinical course, and it should be performed in a high-volume center.

Comparison of the Malignant Predictors in Intrahepatic and Extrahepatic Intraductal Papillary Neoplasm of the Bile Duct

Background: Intraductal papillary neoplasm of the bile duct (IPNB) is a precancerous lesion of cholangiocarcinoma, for which surgical resection is the most effective treatment. We evaluated the predictors of malignancy in IPNB according to anatomical location and the prognosis without surgery. Methods: A total of 196 IPNB patients who underwent pathologic confirmation by surgical resection or endoscopic retrograde cholangiography or percutaneous transhepatic cholangioscopic biopsy were included. Clinicopathological findings of IPNB with invasive carcinoma or mucosal dysplasia were analyzed according to anatomical location. Results: Of the 116 patients with intrahepatic IPNB (I-IPNB) and 80 patients with extrahepatic IPNB (E-IPNB), 62 (53.4%) and 61 (76.3%) were diagnosed with invasive carcinoma, respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed that mural nodule > 12 mm (p = 0.043) in I-IPNB and enhancement of mural nodule (p = 0.044) in E-IPNB were predictive factors for malignancy. For pathologic discrepancy before and after surgery, IPNB has a 71.2% sensitivity and 82.3% specificity. In the non-surgical IPNB group, composed of nine I-IPNB and seven E-IPNB patients, 43.7% progressed to IPNB with invasive carcinoma within 876 days. Conclusions: E-IPNB has a higher rate of malignancy than I-IPNB. The predictive factor for malignancy is mural nodule > 12 mm in I-IPNB and mural nodule enhancement in E-IPNB.

The Role of the Natural Course in Causal Analysis

The average causal effect compares counterfactual outcomes if everyone had been exposed versus if everyone had been unexposed, which can be an unrealistic contrast. Alternatively, we can target effects that compare counterfactual outcomes against the factual outcomes observed in the sample (i.e., we can compare against the natural course). Here, we demonstrate how the natural course can be estimated and used in causal analyses for model validation and effect estimation. Our example is an analysis assessing the impact of taking aspirin on pregnancy, 26 weeks after randomization, in the Effects of Aspirin in Gestation and Reproduction trial (United States, 2006-2012). To validate our models, we estimated the natural course using g-computation and then compared that against the observed incidence of pregnancy. We observed good agreement between the observed and model-based natural courses. We then estimated an effect that compared the natural course against the scenario in which participants assigned to aspirin always complied. If participants had always complied, there would have been 5.0 (95% confidence interval: 2.2, 7.8) more pregnancies per 100 women than was observed. It is good practice to estimate the natural course for model validation when using parametric models, but whether one should estimate a natural course contrast depends on the underlying research questions.

Natural course of untreated spinal cord cavernous malformations: a follow-up study within the initial 5 years after diagnosis

OBJECTIVE

Cavernous spinal cord malformations (SCMs) are believed to have a high rate of bleeding. The risk of intramedullary hemorrhage (IMH) or recurrent IMH and the neurological impact of bleeding events are important for clinical decision-making and could impact current treatment strategies.

METHODS

The authors screened their institutional database for patients with cavernous SCM treated between 2003 and 2020. Patients with complete MRI data sets and clinical baseline characteristics were included. Surgically treated patients were censored after cavernous SCM removal. Neurological functional status was obtained using the modified McCormick (MMcC) scale at diagnosis, first IMH, and second IMH. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses were performed to determine the cumulative 5-year risk for hemorrhage or rehemorrhage.

RESULTS

Seventy-one patients with cavernous SCM were analyzed. Cox regression analysis identified previous IMH (hazard ratio 7.86, 95% confidence interval 1.01-61.47, p = 0.049) as an independent predictor for rehemorrhage during the 5-year follow-up. The cumulative 5-year risk of bleeding or rebleeding was 41.3% for cavernous SCM. The MMcC score significantly deteriorated in 75% of patients after recurrent hemorrhage (p = 0.012).

CONCLUSIONS

During untreated 5-year follow-up, a considerably increased risk for hemorrhage or rehemorrhage was found in cavernous malformations of the spinal cord compared to cerebral cavernous malformations. Neurological function significantly deteriorates after the second bleeding. The probability of recurrent IMH increased significantly after initial presentation with hemorrhage.

Frequency and natural course of congenital cytomegalovirus-associated hearing loss in children

BACKGROUND

Congenital cytomegalovirus-associated hearing loss (cCMV-associated HL) is a common cause of congenital or early-onset deafness. Although cCMV infection has been reported to lead to various types of HL, the natural course of cCMV-associated HL over a long period is not yet known.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the clinical phenotype of cCMV-associated HL in the largest study to date.

METHODS

Thirty-one CMV-positive children, diagnosed by examining CMV DNA extracted from their dried umbilical cords retrospectively, were divided into unilateral and bilateral HL groups, and their hearing ability was evaluated using pure-tone audiometry and auditory steady-state response over time.

RESULTS

Thirteen patients (41.9%) had unilateral HL and 18 (58.1%) had bilateral HL. In most cases of unilateral cCMV-associated HL, the ear with better hearing maintained a normal hearing threshold. Notably, in most cases of both unilateral and bilateral HL, the ear with worse hearing ultimately showed severe to profound HL.

CONCLUSION

Our findings revealed that the natural course of cCMV-associated HL was different between the cases of unilateral and bilateral HL, as well as between the ears with better or worse hearing in all cases. These findings indicate that accurate diagnosis could enable proper follow-up and management of cCMV-associated HL in children.

Controversials of Microscopic Colitis

Microscopic colitis (MC) has become a disease with increased awareness due to the availability of new data about the pathogenesis, diagnosis and therapy of this disease. The incidence of MC is increasing, reaching the incidence of the inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) in some populations. However, some aspects of MC are still controversial. It is unknown whether the changes of microbiome play a role in the pathogenesis and what is in the background of the different subtypes of disease that can transform into each other. Is there a connection between MC and IBD or why the histological changes do not follow the clinical activity? We do not know what the etiology of the incomplete MC is, and what its natural course is. The association of MC with celiac disease is well-known- is there a common pathogenesis? The MC treatment is budesonide. Its effectiveness is high, but the relapse rate is high, as well. Why would biologics be effective in these cases when budesonide is not? This mini-review makes an attempt to summarize the data about MC and highlight that there are still unanswered questions in the pathogenesis, diagnosis and therapy of the disease, which can initiate further investigations in the future.