Discrepancies in tuberculin skin test results with two commercial products in a population of intravenous drug users

Screening for tuberculosis (using the Mantoux test) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) was conducted among intravenous drug users (IVDUs) recruited from a San Francisco Bay Area neighborhood. Of 178 IVDUs skin-tested with one commercial purified protein derivative (PPD) preparation, a reaction of > or = 5 mm of induration occurred in 62 (47%) of 133 HIV-negative and 13 (29%) of 45 HIV-positive IVDUs (P = .037). Forty-two IVDUs with an initial PPD reaction > or = 5 mm were retested with a second commercial preparation; 11 (26%) had no reaction (0 mm) on retesting. These 11 were 5 (56%) of 9 HIV-positive and 6 (18%) of 33 HIV-negative persons (P = .038). These discrepancies may be unique to specific lots of product or may reflect more general differences. A degree of caution in evaluating unexpected tuberculin skin test results may be indicated. Response to different tuberculin products by HIV status should be further evaluated.

Two-year incidence of tuberculosis in cohorts of HIV-infected and uninfected urban Rwandan women

To determine the prevalence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection and the incidence of tuberculosis in HIV-infected and uninfected urban Rwandan women, 460 HIV-positive and 998 HIV-negative childbearing women were recruited from pediatric and prenatal care clinics and were enrolled in a prospective study in 1988 and followed for 2 yr. Tuberculin testing was administered 12 to 18 months after enrollment. Fifty-three percent of HIV-negative women had positive tuberculin tests (induration > or = 10 mm), with higher rates among older women and among women who had received BCG vaccine. Only 21% of HIV-positive women had positive tuberculin tests, with no relationship to BCG vaccine. Follow-up was available for 93% of subjects. Tuberculosis was diagnosed in 20 HIV-positive women and in two HIV-negative women. Features associated with an increased risk of tuberculosis among HIV-positive women included: age > or = 30, body mass index in the lowest quartile, low income, erythrocyte sedimentation rate > 75, positive tuberculin test, and chronic cough, chronic fever, and weight loss. Among Rwandan women who are infected with HIV, approximately half of those who are infected with M. tuberculosis do not have positive tuberculin tests. The rate ratio for development of tuberculosis among HIV-positive women was 22 (95% CI, 5 to 92). New algorithms are needed to improve the early detection of tuberculosis among HIV-positive patients in Africa.

Serum beta 2-microglobulin and prediction of progression to AIDS in HIV infection

Identification of laboratory tests that can help predict progression to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in people infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is important for clinical management and counselling. We have assessed the usefulness of CD4 lymphocyte count, serum beta 2-microglobulin concentration, and the presence of p24 antigen as predictors of AIDS. We studied 214 homosexual and bisexual men with well-defined dates of HIV seroconversion. For each participant, we defined the baseline date as the earliest date before the development of AIDS on which the three laboratory tests were done. beta 2-microglobulin concentration at baseline was in all analyses an independent predictor of AIDS, even after stratification by baseline CD4 count, duration of HIV infection, or use of zidovudine before or at baseline. For example, among men with at least 0.5 x 10(9)/l CD4 cells who were negative for p24 antigen, the risks of AIDS at 12 months and 24 months were 1% and 5%, respectively, for those whose beta 2-microglobulin concentrations were below 4.0 mg/l, compared with 17% and 27%, respectively for those with beta 2-microglobulin concentrations above that cut-off point (p less than 0.001). Among men with an estimated duration of infection of 5 years or less, beta 2-microglobulin concentration was the strongest independent predictor of AIDS. Measurement of serum beta 2-microglobulin adds important prognostic information to CD4 count in determining the risk of progression to AIDS in HIV-infected subjects, including those whose CD4 cell count has not yet fallen.

Progression and clinical outcome of infection due to human immunodeficiency virus

Ten years into the AIDS epidemic, how are we doing? Have we managed to significantly alter the course of infection with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)? Have we defined factors that accelerate or decelerate the rate of progression of infection to clinical disease? Are we better able to predict who is most likely to develop AIDS, to substantially alter the course of infection, and to prevent or delay HIV-related morbidity and mortality? Advances made during the past decade that have furthered our understanding of the virus itself have been remarkable. We now understand a great deal about how the virus attaches to the CD4 cell receptor; how it is internalized, transcribed onto DNA of the host, and incorporated into the host's genome; and how its expression is latently controlled by a series of regulatory genes. However, translating this basic understanding of the virus into significant clinical advances still seems tediously slow for clinicians caring for HIV-infected individuals. I asked Dr. Alan R. Lifson of the University of California San Francisco School of Medicine and his colleagues from the San Francisco Department of Public Health and the California Department of Health Services to summarize the current status of our attempts to alter the course of HIV infection.

Impact of HIV infection on mortality and accuracy of AIDS reporting on death certificates

To assess the impact of HIV infection on mortality and the accuracy of AIDS reporting on death certificates, we analyzed data from 6704 homosexual and bisexual men in the San Francisco City Clinic cohort. Identification of AIDS cases and deaths in the cohort was determined through multiple sources, including the national AIDS surveillance registry and the National Death Index. Through 1990, 1518 deaths had been reported in the cohort and 1292 death certificates obtained. Of the 1292 death certificates, 1162 were for known AIDS cases, but 9% of the AIDS cases did not have HIV infection or AIDS noted on the death certificate. Only 0.7% of the decedents had AIDS listed as a cause of death and had not been reported to AIDS surveillance. AIDS and HIV infection was the leading cause of death in the cohort, with the highest proportionate mortality ratio (85%) and standardized mortality ratio (153 in 1987), and the largest number of years of potential life lost (32,008 years). The devastating impact of HIV infection on mortality is increasing and will require continued efforts to prevent and treat HIV infection.

Predictors of mortality among HIV-infected women in Kigali, Rwanda

OBJECTIVE

To better characterize the natural history of disease due to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in African women.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study over a 2-year follow-up period.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 460 HIV-seropositive women and a comparison cohort of HIV-seronegative women recruited from prenatal and pediatric clinics in Kigali, Rwanda in 1988.

MEASUREMENTS

Clinical signs and symptoms of HIV disease, AIDS, and mortality.

MAIN RESULTS

Follow-up data at 2 years were available for 93% of women who were still alive. At enrollment, many seropositive women reported symptoms listed in the World Health Organization (WHO) clinical case definition of AIDS, but these were nonspecific and often improved over time. The 2-year mortality among HIV-infected women by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was 7% (95% CI, 5% to 10%) overall, and 21% (CI, 8% to 34%) for the 40 women who fulfilled the WHO case definition of AIDS at entry. In comparison, the 2-year mortality in women not infected with HIV was only 0.3% (CI, 0% to 7%). Independent baseline predictors of mortality in seropositive women by Cox proportional hazards modeling were, in order of descending risk factor prevalence: a body mass index of 21 kg/m2 or less (relative hazard, 2.3; CI, 1.1 to 4.8), low income (relative hazard, 2.3; CI, 1.1 to 4.5), an erythrocyte sedimentation rate exceeding 60 mm/h (relative hazard, 4.9; CI, 2.2 to 10.9), chronic diarrhea (relative hazard, 2.6; CI, 1.1 to 5.7), a history of herpes zoster (relative hazard 5.3; CI, 2.5 to 11.4), and oral candida (relative hazard, 7.3; CI, 1.6 to 33.3). Human immunodeficiency virus disease was the cause of death in 38 of the 39 HIV-positive women who died, but only 25 met the WHO definition of AIDS before death.

CONCLUSIONS

Human immunodeficiency virus disease now accounts for 90% of all deaths among child-bearing urban Rwandan women. Many symptomatic seropositive patients may show some clinical improvement and should not be denied routine medical care. Easily diagnosed signs and symptoms and inexpensive laboratory tests can be used in Africa to identify those patients with a particularly good or bad prognosis.

Progression to AIDS in HIV-infected homosexual and bisexual men with hairy leukoplakia and oral candidiasis

OBJECTIVE

This study was designed to assess the significance of HIV-related oral lesions in predicting the rate of progression to AIDS.

DESIGN

Cohorts were investigated prospectively, and oral examinations were performed by clinicians trained in the diagnosis of oral lesions.

SETTING

We studied three existing cohorts of homosexual and bisexual men in San Francisco, California, USA.

PARTICIPANTS

Of the HIV-infected men who received standardized oral examinations (n = 791), 603 were eligible for analysis of baseline examinations and 448 for analysis of follow-up examinations.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

We determined time from presence of oral lesion at baseline or follow-up examination, or from participant self-reported history of the lesion, to diagnosis of AIDS.

RESULTS

Using proportional hazard regression and stratifying by CD4 lymphocyte count at the time of baseline oral examination, we found that the rate of development of AIDS was increased among men with hairy leukoplakia [relative hazard, 1.8; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.2-2.7], oral candidiasis (relative hazard, 7.3; 95% CI, 3.1-17.3), and both lesions (relative hazard, 3.1; 95% CI, 1.6-6.1) compared with men with normal findings. On follow-up examination, stratifying for CD4 count, the rate of progression to AIDS was similar for those with hairy leukoplakia compared with those with oral candidiasis. The progression rate from oral candidiasis to AIDS was faster from presence on baseline examination than from presence on follow-up examination or from self-reported history of the lesion.

CONCLUSION

The presence of oral candidiasis and/or hairy leukoplakia on baseline examination confers independent prognostic information and should be incorporated into HIV-staging schemes.

Current issues concerning the epidemiology of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome and human immunodeficiency virus

This discussion was selected from the weekly staff conferences in the Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco. Taken from a transcription, it has been edited by Nathan M. Bass, MD, PhD, Associate Professor of Medicine, under the direction of Lloyd H. Smith Jr, MD, Professor of Medicine and Associate Dean in the School of Medicine.

The association of clinical conditions and serologic tests with CD4+ lymphocyte counts in HIV-infected subjects without AIDS

Early intervention guidelines in HIV infection require knowledge of CD4+ lymphocyte count; however, CD4+ determinations require special laboratory procedures and may not be readily available in all situations. Using data from 207 HIV-seropositive homosexual men without AIDS, we evaluated the association of difference clinical conditions or serologic tests with CD4+ count. Men with conditions including seborrheic dermatitis, hairy leukoplakia, oral candidiasis and chronic diarrhea, and men with beta2-microglobulin levels greater than or equal to 4.0 mg/l had significantly lower CD4+ counts. However, the probability that a subject with such parameters had less than 200 x 10(6)/l CD4+ cells was limited (25-63%). Although the probability that a subject with such parameters had less than 500 x 10(6)/l CD4+ cells was better (76-88%), the probability that a person without these parameters had greater than or equal to 500 x 10(6)/l CD4+ cells was only 45-50%. Clinical and serologic parameters may provide important prognostic information, but cannot be used to reliably determine the level of CD4+ cells.

The prevalence of oral lesions in HIV-infected homosexual and bisexual men: three San Francisco epidemiological cohorts

To establish the prevalence of HIV-related oral lesions, we performed oral examinations of members of three San Francisco epidemiological cohorts of homosexual and bisexual men over a 3-year period. Hairy leukoplakia, pseudomembranous and erythematous candidiasis, angular cheilitis, Kaposi's sarcoma, and oral ulcers were more common in HIV-infected subjects than in HIV-negative subjects. Among HIV-infected individuals, hairy leukoplakia was the most common lesion [20.4%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 17.5-23.3%] and pseudomembranous candidiasis was the next most common (5.8%, 95% CI 4.1-7.5%). Hairy leukoplakia, pseudomembranous candidiasis, angular cheilitis and Kaposi's sarcoma were significantly more common in patients with lower CD4 lymphocyte counts (P less than 0.05). The prevalence of erythematous candidiasis and Kaposi's sarcoma increased during the 3-year period. Careful oral examinations may identify infected patients and provide suggestive information concerning their immune status.

Long-term human immunodeficiency virus infection in asymptomatic homosexual and bisexual men with normal CD4+ lymphocyte counts: immunologic and virologic characteristics

From a prospective cohort study, 24 asymptomatic men were identified who had been antibody positive for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) for at least 5 years (median = 9.1) with CD4+ lymphocyte counts greater than or equal to 400 cells/mm3. Of these "nonprogressors", 23 (96%) had evidence of HIV infection by either HIV culture or the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for HIV DNA, although only 1 (4%) had a positive assay for HIV RNA (by PCR) and no one was positive for p24 antigen. Compared with 24 antibody-negative men and 14 men with AIDS, nonprogressors had higher CD8+ counts and lower natural killer cell activity. Nonprogressors had higher beta 2-microglobulin levels than did seronegative controls, suggesting some degree of immune system activation. Compared with men with AIDS, nonprogressors seemed to have a stronger antibody response to six different HIV-related proteins but did not differ significantly in neutralizing antibody or antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxic activity.

HIV seroconversion in two homosexual men after receptive oral intercourse with ejaculation: implications for counseling concerning safe sexual practices

Seroconversion for HIV antibody occurred in two homosexual men who reported no anal intercourse for greater than or equal to 5 years and multiple episodes of receptive oral intercourse with ejaculation. Neither man reported intravenous drug use or receipt of blood products. The last antibody-negative specimen was also negative by the polymerase chain reaction and p24 antigen assays. All sexually active persons should be clearly counselled that receptive oral intercourse with ejaculation carries a potential risk of HIV transmission.

Course of HIV-I infection in a cohort of homosexual and bisexual men: an 11 year follow up study

OBJECTIVE--To characterise the natural history of sexually transmitted HIV-I infection in homosexual and bisexual men. DESIGN--Cohort study. SETTING--San Francisco municipal sexually transmitted disease clinic. PATIENTS--Cohort included 6705 homosexual and bisexual men originally recruited from 1978 to 1980 for studies of sexually transmitted hepatitis B. This analysis is of 489 cohort members who were either HIV-I seropositive on entry into the cohort (n = 312) or seroconverted during the study period and had less than or equal to 24 months between the dates of their last seronegative and first seropositive specimens (n = 177). A subset of 442 of these men was examined in 1988 or 1989 or had been reported to have developed AIDS. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Development of clinical signs and symptoms of HIV-I infection, including AIDS, AIDS related complex, asymptomatic generalised lymphadenopathy, and no signs or symptoms of infection. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS--Of the 422 men examined in 1988 or 1989 or reported as having AIDS, 341 had been infected from 1977 to 1980; 49% (167) of these men had died of AIDS, 10% (34) were alive with AIDS, 19% (65) had AIDS related complex, 3% (10) had asymptomatic generalised lymphadenopathy, and 19% (34) had no clinical signs or symptoms of HIV-I infection. Cumulative risk of AIDS by duration of HIV-I infection was analysed for all 489 men by the Kaplan-Meier method. Of these 489 men, 226 (46%) had been diagnosed as having AIDS. We estimated that 13% of cohort members will have developed AIDS within five years of seroconversion, 51% within 10 years, and 54% within 11.1 years. CONCLUSION--Our analysis confirming the importance of duration of infection to clinical state and the high risk of AIDS after infection underscores the importance of continuing efforts both to prevent transmission of HIV-I and to develop further treatments to slow or stall the progression of HIV-I infection to AIDS.

The role of human immunodeficiency virus infection in pneumococcal bacteremia in San Francisco residents

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is an important risk factor for invasive pneumococcal disease, but information on clinical course and infecting serotypes is limited. To help develop strategies to reduce the morbidity due to invasive pneumococcal disease, episodes of pneumococcal bacteremia were identified by retrospective review of microbiology records (November 1983-November 1987) at 10 San Francisco hospitals and, for patients 20-55 years old living in San Francisco, HIV antibody status was determined by review of medical records. Pneumococcal isolates from one hospital were serotyped. Of 294 patients with pneumococcal bacteremia identified, 32 (11%) had AIDS at the time pneumococcal bacteremia was diagnosed and another 43 (15%) were HIV-infected but did not have AIDS; 12 HIV-infected patients developed AIDS after the episode of pneumococcal bacteremia. The rate of pneumococcal bacteremia in AIDS patients was estimated to be 9.4/1000 patient-years. Serotypes of 27 (82%) of 33 pneumococcal isolates from HIV-infected patients and 107 (90%) from 119 patients without known HIV infection were among the 23 serotypes included in the currently available polysaccharide vaccine. The rate of pneumococcal bacteremia is approximately 100-fold greater in AIDS patients in San Francisco than rates reported before the AIDS epidemic, but more than half the episodes of pneumococcal bacteremia in HIV-infected patients occurred in patients without AIDS. Data on pneumococcal serotypes causing invasive disease in HIV-infected patients suggest that the current pneumococcal vaccine, if effective in this population, could provide significant protection against pneumococcal disease.

Concordance of polymerase chain reaction with human immunodeficiency virus antibody detection

To evaluate the correlation of detection of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) with detection of HIV antibody, 271 simultaneous serum and peripheral blood mononuclear cell samples were examined from 242 persons whose activities placed them at increased risk for HIV infection: 142 from homosexual men, 86 from hemophilic men, and 43 from heterosexual partners of HIV-infected persons. PCR was performed using the gag region primer pair SK38/39 and the env region primer pairs SK68/69 and CO71/72. Amplified HIV DNA was detected using specific oligomer probes. Of 63 HIV antibody-positive samples, 58 (92%) had HIV DNA by PCR. Of 208 HIV antibody-negative samples, 7 (3.4%) had HIV DNA by PCR. On follow-up, 4 of the latter persons were seropositive when next tested; 2 were well and antibody- and PCR-negative; 1 had died of a stroke before retesting. Thus, PCR detects HIV in most antibody-positive persons; detection is increased by use of multiple primer pairs. PCR-positive antibody-negative specimens may indicate HIV infection in which antibody has not yet developed or may be false-positive PCR results. When PCR is discordant with HIV antibody, testing of additional specimens and clinical follow-up are necessary to assess HIV infection status.

Detection of human immunodeficiency virus DNA using the polymerase chain reaction in a well-characterized group of homosexual and bisexual men

The polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) DNA was performed on specimens from 197 homosexual and bisexual men enrolled in studies of HIV-1 infection. Thirty cycles of amplification were conducted, followed by detection with probes corresponding to two gag primer pairs (SK 38/39 and SK 101/145). Of 107 men who were HIV-1 antibody-negative, 105 (98%) were PCR-negative. Two who were initially PCR-positive antibody-negative were PCR- and antibody-negative on repeat testing of both the same specimen and specimens drawn 8-10 months later; this suggests that the first PCR results were false-positive. Of 90 men who were antibody-positive, PCR was positive in 87 (97%), including all 13 with AIDS, all 22 with AIDS-related conditions, all 11 with generalized lymphadenopathy only, and 41 (93%) of 44 without signs or symptoms of HIV-1 infection. On repeat testing, all 3 PCR-negative, antibody-positive men were PCR-positive. In this population and with this technique, PCR had excellent agreement with the HIV-1 antibody test.

Risk factors for human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection in patients at a sexually transmitted disease clinic in New York City

Patients who attended a sexually transmitted disease clinic in New York City in 1987 were offered enrollment in a nonblinded study to estimate human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) seroprevalence in adults with multiple sexual partners and to determine risk factors associated with HIV-1 infection. In addition, a blinded serosurvey of a representative sample of patients was performed to obtain an unbiased estimate of seroprevalence in clinic attendees. The seroprevalence in the blinded serosurvey was 7.5% (26/348), while the seroprevalence of the 1,201 volunteers for the nonblinded study was 11.2%. For men in the nonblinded study, the risk behaviors most strongly associated with HIV-1 infection were intravenous drug use, sexual contact with another man, and sexual contact with a female intravenous drug user. For women, intravenous drug use and sexual contact with a man at risk for HIV-1 infection (an intravenous drug user or a bisexual) were most important. The seroprevalence among persons who denied all high-risk behavior was 1% (7/723). The results of this study, conducted in a city with one of the nation's highest reported cumulative incidences of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, suggest that HIV-1 infection in clinic attendees was primarily limited to intravenous drug users, homosexual/bisexual men, and the sexual partners of these two groups.

Kaposi's sarcoma in a cohort of homosexual and bisexual men. Epidemiology and analysis for cofactors

Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) surveillance data for both the United States and San Francisco indicate that Kaposi's sarcoma is more common in homosexual and bisexual men with AIDS than in other adults with AIDS, and that the proportion of newly diagnosed AIDS cases presenting with Kaposi's sarcoma has been significantly declining over time. The changing epidemiology of Kaposi's sarcoma was analyzed in a well-characterized cohort of homosexual and bisexual men; laboratory and interview data from a sample of these men were evaluated for determinants of and cofactors associated with Kaposi's sarcoma. Among 1,341 men with AIDS, the proportion presenting with Kaposi's sarcoma declined from 79% in 1981 to 25% in 1989. Compared with other men with AIDS, men with Kaposi's sarcoma had a shorter interval from human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) seroconversion to AIDS diagnosis (median, 77 vs. 86 months). Men with and without Kaposi's sarcoma did not significantly differ with respect to number of sexual partners, history of certain sexually transmitted or enteric diseases, use of certain recreational drugs (including nitrite inhalants), or participation in certain specific sexual practices. The decline in Kaposi's sarcoma may at least partly be due to a shorter latency period from infection to disease. Although cofactors for the development of Kaposi's sarcoma may exist, many previously hypothesized agents were not supported by this analysis.

High-risk sexual behavior and knowledge of HIV antibody status in the San Francisco City Clinic Cohort

To evaluate the effectiveness of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) testing and counseling among homosexual and bisexual men participating in the San Francisco City Clinic Cohort, compared behavioral data from 181 men who learned their HIV antibody status between 1985 and 1987 with data from 128 men who were tested but declined to receive their results. Overall, significant declines in risk indices for unprotected receptive and insertive anal intercourse occurred between 1983-1984 and 1986-1987, but these declines were independent of both knowledge of HIV status and actual serostatus. Those who chose to learn their HIV status were also no more likely to report depression or to learn their HIV status were also no more likely to report depression or anxiety subsequent to testing. Regression analyses showed no relationship between length of time since learning one's HIV status, mental health symptoms, and the persistence of high-risk behavior in 1986-1987. Although these results do not negate the value of HIV testing and counseling, they suggest that other motivating factors such as frequent access to risk-reduction information may provide sufficient impetus for behavioral change.

Phase I study of low-dose zidovudine and acyclovir in asymptomatic human immunodeficiency virus seropositive individuals

PURPOSE

The combination of zidovudine and acyclovir has shown in vitro antiretroviral activity and led to short-term improvement in patients with symptomatic human immunodeficiency disease (HIV) disease. We performed a phase I study of zidovudine (500 mg/day) plus acyclovir (2 or 4 g/day) in asymptomatic HIV-seropositive men to investigate pharmacokinetics, safety, tolerance, and immunologic effects of the combination.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

Fifty HIV-seropositive homosexual or bisexual men from the San Francisco City Clinic Cohort Study were recruited for the study; of these, 20 met the eligibility criteria. Treatment with zidovudine and acyclovir was open label. Pharmacokinetic, virologic, immunologic, and clinical data were collected periodically over a 24-week period.

RESULTS

Pharmacokinetic analysis showed no drug interaction. The combination was generally well tolerated, and hematologic parameters remained stable through 24 weeks. There were no significant changes in total lymphocytes, T4 lymphocytes, overall skin test reactivity, or ability to culture virus from peripheral blood.

CONCLUSION

This combination of agents is safe in this population for at least six months. Conclusions about long-term tolerance and efficacy await the results of larger trials with longer follow-up.

Prevalence, incidence, and progression of human immunodeficiency virus infection in homosexual and bisexual men in hepatitis B vaccine trials, 1978-1988

Between 1978 and 1980, 359 hepatitis B seronegative homosexual and bisexual men were recruited from the San Francisco municipal sexually transmitted disease clinic for hepatitis B vaccine trials. Of the 359 participants, 320 (89%) consented to have their stored blood samples tested for human immunodeficiency virus antibodies. The prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus infection in these 320 vaccine trial participants rose from 0.3% in 1978 to 50.9% in 1988. The annual incidence of human immunodeficiency virus infection showed that seroconversion peaked in 1980-1982, dropped significantly in 1983, and has remained low. Men less than 30 years old on entry into the study seroconverted earlier in the epidemic and had higher incidence rates than men 30 years or older (p = 0.07). No statistical difference in seroconversion rates was found for other demographic variables. Using a Kaplan-Meier survival curve of the cumulative proportion of men without acquired immunodeficiency syndrome by duration of human immunodeficiency virus infection, an estimated 39% (95% confidence interval 27%-51%) will develop acquired immunodeficiency syndrome within 9.2 years of infection. Cox proportional hazard stepwise analysis showed no correlation between age at seroconversion, race, or year of seroconversion and progression to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome.

Neurological and neuropsychological manifestations of HIV-1 infection: association with AIDS-related complex but not asymptomatic HIV-1 infection

To determine whether neurological and neuropsychological abnormalities are associated with clinical manifestations of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection in men who do not have acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), we performed a historical prospective and cross-sectional study. One hundred HIV-1 seropositive homosexual or bisexual men, of whom 26 had AIDS-related complex, 31 had generalized lymphadenopathy, and 43 had no signs or symptoms of HIV-1 infection, and 157 HIV-1 seronegative men were enrolled from a cohort of 6,701 men who were originally recruited between 1978 and 1980 for studies of hepatitis B virus infection. Evaluation included medical history, physical examination, and neuropsychological tests. Of 26 HIV-1 seropositive subjects with AIDS-related complex, 11 (42%) reported neurological, cognitive, or affective symptoms compared with 30 (19%) of 157 HIV-1 seronegative subjects (relative risk = 2.2, p = 0.02). On neuropsychological testing, subjects with AIDS-related complex performed at a significantly lower level than the HIV-1 seronegative group (p = 0.001). A significantly higher percentage of subjects with AIDS-related complex (8[31%]of 26) than HIV-1 seronegative subjects (19 [12%] of 157) had abnormal results on two or more neuropsychological tests (rate ratio = 2.5, p = 0.03). Symptoms and impairment on neuropsychological tests were correlated only within the group who had AIDS-related complex. Subjects with generalized lymphadenopathy and subjects who had no signs or symptoms of HIV-1 infection were not different from HIV-1 seronegative subjects with respect to symptoms or performance on neuropsychological tests.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)