Long-term Risk of Colorectal Cancer and Related Deaths After a Colonoscopy With Normal Findings

Importance

Guidelines recommend a 10-year rescreening interval after a colonoscopy with normal findings (negative colonoscopy results), but evidence supporting this recommendation is limited.

Objective

To examine the long-term risks of colorectal cancer and colorectal cancer deaths after a negative colonoscopy result, in comparison with individuals unscreened, in a large, community-based setting.

Design, Setting, and Participants

A retrospective cohort study was conducted in an integrated health care delivery organization serving more than 4 million members across Northern California. A total of 1 251 318 average-risk screening-eligible patients (age 50-75 years) between January 1, 1998, and December 31, 2015, were included. The study was concluded on December 31, 2016.

Exposures

Screening was examined as a time-varying exposure; all participants contributed person-time unscreened until they were either screened or censored. If the screening received was a negative colonoscopy result, the participants contributed person-time in the negative colonoscopy results group until they were censored.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Using Cox proportional hazards regression models, the hazard ratios (HRs) for colorectal cancer and related deaths were calculated according to time since negative colonoscopy result (or since cohort entry for those unscreened). Hazard ratios were adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, Charlson comorbidity score, and body mass index.

Results

Of the 1 251 318 patients, 613 692 were men (49.0%); mean age was 55.6 (7.0) years. Compared with the unscreened participants, those with a negative colonoscopy result had a reduced risk of colorectal cancer and related deaths throughout the more than 12-year follow-up period, and although reductions in risk were attenuated with increasing years of follow-up, there was a 46% lower risk of colorectal cancer (hazard ratio, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.31-0.94) and 88% lower risk of related deaths (hazard ratio, 0.12; 95% CI, 0.02-0.82) at the current guideline-recommended 10-year rescreening interval.

Conclusions and Relevance

A negative colonoscopy result in average-risk patients was associated with a lower risk of colorectal cancer and related deaths for more than 12 years after examination, compared with unscreened patients. Our study findings may be able to inform guidelines for rescreening after a negative colonoscopy result and future studies to evaluate the costs and benefits of earlier vs later rescreening intervals.

Modifiable Failures in the Colorectal Cancer Screening Process and Their Association With Risk of Death

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Colorectal cancer (CRC) deaths occur when patients do not receive screening or have inadequate follow-up of abnormal results or when the screening test fails. We have few data on the contribution of each to CRC-associated deaths or factors associated with these events.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients in the Kaiser Permanente Northern and Southern California systems (55-90 years old) who died of CRC from 2006 through 2012 and had ≥5 years of enrollment before diagnosis. We compared data from patients with those from a matched cohort of cancer-free patients in the same system. Receipt, results, indications, and follow-up of CRC tests in the 10-year period before diagnosis were obtained from electronic databases and chart audits.

RESULTS

Of 1750 CRC deaths, 75.9% (n = 1328) occurred in patients who were not up to date in screening and 24.1% (n = 422) occurred in patients who were up to date. Failure to screen was associated with fewer visits to primary care physicians. Of 3486 cancer-free patients, 44.6% were up to date in their screening. Patients who were up to date in their screening had a lower risk of CRC death (odds ratio, 0.38; 95% confidence interval, 0.33-0.44). Failure to screen, or failure to screen at appropriate intervals, occurred in a 67.8% of patients who died of CRC vs 53.2% of cancer-free patients; failure to follow-up on abnormal results occurred in 8.1% of patients who died of CRC vs 2.2% of cancer-free patients. CRC death was associated with higher odds of failure to screen or failure to screen at appropriate intervals (odds ratio, 2.40; 95% confidence interval, 2.07-2.77) and failure to follow-up on abnormal results (odds ratio, 7.26; 95% confidence interval, 5.26-10.03).

CONCLUSIONS

Being up to date on screening substantially decreases the risk of CRC death. In 2 health care systems with high rates of screening, most people who died of CRC had failures in the screening process that could be rectified, such as failure to follow-up on abnormal findings; these significantly increased the risk for CRC death.

Effects of Organized Colorectal Cancer Screening on Cancer Incidence and Mortality in a Large Community-Based Population

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Little information is available on the effectiveness of organized colorectal cancer (CRC) screening on screening uptake, incidence, and mortality in community-based populations.

METHODS

We contrasted screening rates, age-adjusted annual CRC incidence, and incidence-based mortality rates before (baseline year 2000) and after (through 2015) implementation of organized screening outreach, from 2007 through 2008 (primarily annual fecal immunochemical testing and colonoscopy), in a large community-based population. Among screening-eligible individuals 51-75 years old, we calculated annual up-to-date status for cancer screening (by fecal test, sigmoidoscopy, or colonoscopy), CRC incidence, cancer stage distributions, and incidence-based mortality.

RESULTS

Initiation of organized CRC screening significantly increased the up-to-date status of screening, from 38.9% in 2000 to 82.7% in 2015 (P < .01). Higher rates of screening were associated with a 25.5% reduction in annual CRC incidence between 2000 and 2015, from 95.8 to 71.4 cases/100,000 (P < .01), and a 52.4% reduction in cancer mortality, from 30.9 to 14.7 deaths/100,000 (P < .01). Increased screening was initially associated with increased CRC incidence, due largely to greater detection of early-stage cancers, followed by decreases in cancer incidence. Advanced-stage CRC incidence rates decreased 36.2%, from 45.9 to 29.3 cases/100,000 (P < .01), and early-stage CRC incidence rates decreased 14.5%, from 48.2 to 41.2 cases/100,000 (P < .04).

CONCLUSIONS

Implementing an organized CRC screening program in a large community-based population rapidly increased screening participation to the ≥80% target set by national organizations. Screening rates were sustainable and associated with substantial decreases in CRC incidence and mortality within short time intervals, consistent with early detection and cancer prevention.

Influence of Varying Quantitative Fecal Immunochemical Test Positivity Thresholds on Colorectal Cancer Detection: A Community-Based Cohort Study

Background

The fecal immunochemical test (FIT) is commonly used for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. Despite demographic variations in stool hemoglobin concentrations, few data exist regarding optimal positivity thresholds by age and sex.

Objective

To identify programmatic (multitest) FIT performance characteristics and optimal FIT quantitative hemoglobin positivity thresholds in a large, population-based, screening program.

Design

Retrospective cohort study.

Setting

Kaiser Permanente Northern and Southern California.

Participants

Adults aged 50 to 75 years who were eligible for screening and had baseline quantitative FIT results (2013 to 2014) and 2 years of follow-up. Nearly two thirds (411 241) had FIT screening in the previous 2 years.

Measurements

FIT programmatic sensitivity for CRC and number of positive test results per cancer case detected, overall and by age and sex.

Results

Of 640 859 persons who completed a baseline FIT and were followed for 2 years, 481 817 (75%) had at least 1 additional FIT and 1245 (0.19%) received a CRC diagnosis. Cancer detection (programmatic sensitivity) increased at lower positivity thresholds, from 822 in 1245 (66.0%) at 30 µg/g to 925 (74.3%) at 20 µg/g and 987 (79.3%) at 10 µg/g; the number of positive test results per cancer case detected increased from 43 at 30 µg/g to 52 at 20 µg/g and 85 at 10 µg/g. Reducing the positivity threshold from 20 to 15 µg/g would detect 3% more cancer cases and require 23% more colonoscopies. At the conventional FIT threshold of 20 µg/g, programmatic sensitivity decreased with increasing age (79.0%, 73.4%, and 68.9% for ages 50 to 59, 60 to 69, and 70 to 75 years, respectively; P = 0.009) and was higher in men than women (77.0% vs. 70.6%; P = 0.011).

Limitation

Information on advanced adenoma was lacking.

Conclusion

Increased cancer detection at lower positivity thresholds is counterbalanced by substantial increases in positive tests. Tailored thresholds may provide screening benefits that are more equal among different demographic groups, depending on local resources.

Primary Funding Source

National Cancer Institute.

Colorectal Cancer Screening Participation Among Asian Americans Overall and Subgroups in an Integrated Health Care Setting with Organized Screening

Background

Screening reduces colorectal cancer deaths, but <50% of Asian Americans are screening up-to-date according to surveys, with variability across Asian subgroups. We examined colorectal cancer screening participation among Asian Americans overall and Asian subgroups in a large integrated health care system with organized screening.

Methods

Data were electronically accessed to characterize screening in 2016 for Asians overall and subgroups relative to the National Colorectal Cancer Roundtable target of ≥80% screening and compared with non-Hispanic whites. Screening up-to-date was defined as a colonoscopy with 10 years, a sigmoidoscopy within 5 years, or a fecal immunochemical test (FIT) completed in 2016.

Results

Among 436,398 patients, 69,826 (16.0%) were Asian, of whom 79.8% were screening up-to-date vs. 77.6% of non-Hispanic whites (p < 0.001). Almost all subgroups met the 80% target: Chinese (83.3%), Vietnamese (82.4%), Korean (82.1%), other Asian (80.3%), Filipino (78.7%), Asian Indian (79.6%), and Japanese (79.0%). Among Asians overall and non-Hispanic whites, 50.6% and 48.4% of members were up-to-date with screening by colonoscopy, and 28.0% and 28.2% were up-to-date by FIT, respectively. Across Asian subgroups, colonoscopy most frequently accounting for being screening up-to-date (range: 47.4–59.7%), followed by FIT (range: 21.6–31.5%).

Conclusions

In an organized screening setting, there were minimal differences in screening participation among Asian subgroups and almost all met the 80% screening target, despite differences in language preference. Screening test type differences across subgroups suggest possible preferences in screening modality, which can inform future research into tailored education or outreach.

Patterns and predictors of repeat fecal immunochemical and occult blood test screening in four large health care systems in the United States

OBJECTIVES

Effectiveness of fecal occult blood test (FOBT) for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening depends on annual testing, but little is known about patterns of repeat stool-based screening within different settings. Our study's objective was to characterize screening patterns and identify factors associated with repeat screening among patients who completed an index guaiac FOBT (gFOBT) or fecal immunochemical test (FIT).

METHODS

We performed a multi-center retrospective cohort study among people who completed a FOBT between January 2010 and December 2011 to characterize repeat screening patterns over the subsequent 3 years. We studied at 4 large health care delivery systems in the United States. Logistic regression analyses were used to identify factors associated with repeat screening patterns. We included individuals aged 50-71 years who completed an index FOBT and had at least 3 years of follow-up. We excluded people with a history of CRC, colonoscopy within 10 years or flexible sigmoidoscopy within 5 years before the index test, or positive index stool test. Consistent screening was defined as repeat FOBT within every 15 months and inconsistent screening as repeat testing at least once during follow-up but less than consistent screening.

RESULTS

Among 959,857 eligible patients who completed an index FIT or gFOBT, 344,103 had three years of follow-up and met inclusion criteria. Of these, 46.6% had consistent screening, 43.4% inconsistent screening, and 10% had no repeat screening during follow-up. Screening patterns varied substantially across healthcare systems, with consistent screening proportions ranging from 1 to 54.3% and no repeat screening proportions ranging from 6.9 to 42.8%. Higher consistent screening proportions were observed in health systems with screening outreach and in-reach programs, whereas the safety-net health system, which uses opportunistic clinic-based screening, had the lowest consistent screening. Consistent screening increased with older age but was less common among racial/ethnic minorities and patients with more comorbidities.

CONCLUSIONS

Adherence with annual FOBT screening is highly variable across healthcare delivery systems. Settings with more organized screening programs performed better than those with opportunistic screening, but evidence-based interventions are needed to improve CRC screening adherence in all settings.

Effectiveness of screening colonoscopy in reducing the risk of death from right and left colon cancer: a large community-based study

OBJECTIVE

Screening colonoscopy's effectiveness in reducing colorectal cancer mortality risk in community populations is unclear, particularly for right-colon cancers, leading to recommendations against its use for screening in some countries. This study aimed to determine whether, among average-risk people, receipt of screening colonoscopy reduces the risk of dying from both right-colon and left-colon/rectal cancers.

DESIGN

We conducted a nested case-control study with incidence-density matching in screening-eligible Kaiser Permanente members. Patients who were 55-90 years old on their colorectal cancer death date during 2006-2012 were matched on diagnosis (reference) date to controls on age, sex, health plan enrolment duration and geographical region. We excluded patients at increased colorectal cancer risk, or with prior colorectal cancer diagnosis or colectomy. The association between screening colonoscopy receipt in the 10-year period before the reference date and colorectal cancer death risk was evaluated while accounting for other screening exposures.

RESULTS

We analysed 1747 patients who died from colorectal cancer and 3460 colorectal cancer-free controls. Compared with no endoscopic screening, receipt of a screening colonoscopy was associated with a 67% reduction in the risk of death from any colorectal cancer (adjusted OR (aOR)=0.33, 95% CI 0.21 to 0.52). By cancer location, screening colonoscopy was associated with a 65% reduction in risk of death for right-colon cancers (aOR=0.35, CI 0.18 to 0.65) and a 75% reduction for left-colon/rectal cancers (aOR=0.25, CI 0.12 to 0.53).

CONCLUSIONS

Screening colonoscopy was associated with a substantial and comparably decreased mortality risk for both right-sided and left-sided cancers within a large community-based population.

Interventions to Improve Follow-up of Positive Results on Fecal Blood Tests: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Fecal immunochemical testing is the most commonly used method for colorectal cancer screening worldwide. However, its effectiveness is frequently undermined by failure to obtain follow-up colonoscopy after positive test results.

PURPOSE

To evaluate interventions to improve rates of follow-up colonoscopy for adults after a positive result on a fecal test (guaiac or immunochemical).

DATA SOURCES

English-language studies from the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, PubMed, and Embase from database inception through June 2017.

STUDY SELECTION

Randomized and nonrandomized studies reporting an intervention for colonoscopy follow-up of asymptomatic adults with positive fecal test results.

DATA EXTRACTION

Two reviewers independently extracted data and ranked study quality; 2 rated overall strength of evidence for each category of study type.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Twenty-three studies were eligible for analysis, including 7 randomized and 16 nonrandomized studies. Three were at low risk of bias. Eleven studies described patient-level interventions (changes to invitation, provision of results or follow-up appointments, and patient navigators), 5 provider-level interventions (reminders or performance data), and 7 system-level interventions (automated referral, precolonoscopy telephone calls, patient registries, and quality improvement efforts). Moderate evidence supported patient navigators and provider reminders or performance data. Evidence for system-level interventions was low. Seventeen studies reported the proportion of test-positive patients who completed colonoscopy compared with a control population, with absolute differences of -7.4 percentage points (95% CI, -19 to 4.3 percentage points) to 25 percentage points (CI, 14 to 35 percentage points).

LIMITATION

More than half of studies were at high or very high risk of bias; heterogeneous study designs and characteristics precluded meta-analysis.

CONCLUSION

Patient navigators and giving providers reminders or performance data may help improve colonoscopy rates of asymptomatic adults with positive fecal blood test results. Current evidence about useful system-level interventions is scant and insufficient.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Cancer Institute. (PROSPERO: CRD42016048286).

Primary care visit use after positive fecal immunochemical test for colorectal cancer screening

BACKGROUND

For some patients, positive cancer screening test results can be a stressful experience that can affect future screening compliance and increase the use of health care services unrelated to medically indicated follow-up.

METHODS

Among 483,216 individuals aged 50 to 75 years who completed a fecal immunochemical test to screen for colorectal cancer at a large integrated health care setting between 2007 and 2011, the authors evaluated whether a positive test was associated with a net change in outpatient primary care visit use within the year after screening. Multivariable regression models were used to evaluate the relationship between test result group and net changes in primary care visits after fecal immunochemical testing.

RESULTS

In the year after the fecal immunochemical test, use increased by 0.60 clinic visits for patients with true-positive results. The absolute change in visits was largest (3.00) among individuals with positive test results who were diagnosed with colorectal cancer, but significant small increases also were found for patients treated with polypectomy and who had no neoplasia (0.36) and those with a normal examination and no polypectomy performed (0.17). Groups of patients who demonstrated an increase in net visit use compared with the true-negative group included patients with true-positive results (odds ratio [OR], 1.60; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.54-1.66), and positive groups with a colorectal cancer diagnosis (OR, 7.19; 95% CI, 6.12-8.44), polypectomy/no neoplasia (OR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.27-1.48), and normal examination/no polypectomy (OR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.18-1.30).

CONCLUSIONS

Given the large size of outreach programs, these small changes can cumulatively generate thousands of excess visits and have a substantial impact on total health care use. Therefore, these changes should be included in colorectal cancer screening cost models and their causes investigated further. Cancer 2017;123:3744-3753. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Colorectal Cancer Screening Initiation After Age 50 Years in an Organized Program

INTRODUCTION

Recent studies report racial disparities among individuals in organized colorectal cancer (CRC) programs; however, there is a paucity of information on CRC screening utilization by race/ethnicity among newly age-eligible adults in such programs.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study among Kaiser Permanente Northern California enrollees who turned age 50 years between 2007 and 2012 (N=138,799) and were served by a systemwide outreach and facilitated in-reach screening program based primarily on mailed fecal immunochemical tests to screening-eligible people. Kaplan-Meier and Cox model analyses were used to estimate differences in receipt of CRC screening in 2015-2016.

RESULTS

Cumulative probabilities of CRC screening within 1 and 2 years of subjects' 50th birthday were 51% and 73%, respectively. Relative to non-Hispanic whites, the likelihood of completing any CRC screening was similar in blacks (hazard ratio, 0.98; 95% CI=0.96, 1.00); 5% lower in Hispanics (hazard ratio, 0.95; 95% CI=0.93, 0.96); and 13% higher in Asians (hazard ratio, 1.13; 95% CI=1.11, 1.15) in adjusted analyses. Fecal immunochemical testing was the most common screening modality, representing 86% of all screening initiations. Blacks and Hispanics had lower receipt of fecal immunochemical testing in adjusted analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

CRC screening uptake was high among newly screening-eligible adults in an organized CRC screening program, but Hispanics were less likely to initiate screening near age 50 years than non-Hispanic whites, suggesting that cultural and other individual-level barriers not addressed within the program likely contribute. Future studies examining the influences of culturally appropriate and targeted efforts for screening initiation are needed.

Association Between Time to Colonoscopy After a Positive Fecal Test Result and Risk of Colorectal Cancer and Cancer Stage at Diagnosis

IMPORTANCE

The fecal immunochemical test (FIT) is commonly used for colorectal cancer screening and positive test results require follow-up colonoscopy. However, follow-up intervals vary, which may result in neoplastic progression.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate time to colonoscopy after a positive FIT result and its association with risk of colorectal cancer and advanced-stage disease at diagnosis.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Retrospective cohort study (January 1, 2010-December 31, 2014) within Kaiser Permanente Northern and Southern California. Participants were 70 124 patients aged 50 through 70 years eligible for colorectal cancer screening with a positive FIT result who had a follow-up colonoscopy.

EXPOSURES

Time (days) to colonoscopy after a positive FIT result.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Risk of any colorectal cancer and advanced-stage disease (defined as stage III and IV cancer). Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs were adjusted for patient demographics and baseline risk factors.

RESULTS

Of the 70 124 patients with positive FIT results (median age, 61 years [IQR, 55-67 years]; men, 52.7%), there were 2191 cases of any colorectal cancer and 601 cases of advanced-stage disease diagnosed. Compared with colonoscopy follow-up within 8 to 30 days (n = 27 176), there were no significant differences between follow-up at 2 months (n = 24 644), 3 months (n = 8666), 4 to 6 months (n = 5251), or 7 to 9 months (n = 1335) for risk of any colorectal cancer (cases per 1000 patients: 8-30 days, 30; 2 months, 28; 3 months, 31; 4-6 months, 31; and 7-9 months, 43) or advanced-stage disease (cases per 1000 patients: 8-30 days, 8; 2 months, 7; 3 months, 7; 4-6 months, 9; and 7-9 months, 13). Risks were significantly higher for examinations at 10 to 12 months (n = 748) for any colorectal cancer (OR, 1.48 [95% CI, 1.05-2.08]; 49 cases per 1000 patients) and advanced-stage disease (OR, 1.97 [95% CI, 1.14-3.42]; 19 cases per 1000 patients) and more than 12 months (n = 747) for any colorectal cancer (OR, 2.25 [95% CI, 1.89-2.68]; 76 cases per 1000 patients) and advanced-stage disease (OR, 3.22 [95% CI, 2.44-4.25]; 31 cases per 1000 patients).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Among patients with a positive fecal immunochemical test result, compared with follow-up colonoscopy at 8 to 30 days, follow-up after 10 months was associated with a higher risk of colorectal cancer and more advanced-stage disease at the time of diagnosis. Further research is needed to assess whether this relationship is causal.

Genetic Biomarker Prevalence Is Similar in Fecal Immunochemical Test Positive and Negative Colorectal Cancer Tissue

BACKGROUND

Fecal immunochemical test (FIT) screening detects most asymptomatic colorectal cancers. Combining FIT screening with stool-based genetic biomarkers increases sensitivity for cancer, but whether DNA biomarkers (biomarkers) differ for cancers detected versus missed by FIT screening has not been evaluated in a community-based population.

AIMS

To evaluate tissue biomarkers among Kaiser Permanente Northern California patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer within 2 years after FIT screening.

METHODS

FIT-negative and FIT-positive colorectal cancer patients 50-77 years of age were matched on age, sex, and cancer stage. Adequate DNA was isolated from paraffin-embedded specimens in 210 FIT-negative and 211 FIT-positive patients. Quantitative allele-specific real-time target and signal amplification assays were performed for 7 K-ras mutations and 10 aberrantly methylated DNA biomarkers (NDRG4, BMP3, SFMBT2_895, SFMBT2_896, SFMBT2_897, CHST2_7890, PDGFD, VAV3, DTX1, CHST2_7889).

RESULTS

One or more biomarkers were found in 414 of 421 CRCs (98.3%). Biomarker expression was not associated with FIT status, with the exception of higher SFMBT2_897 expression in FIT-negative (194 of 210; 92.4%) than in FIT-positive cancers (180 of 211; 85.3%; p = 0.02). There were no consistent differences in biomarker expression by FIT status within age, sex, stage, and cancer location subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

The biomarkers of a currently in-use multi-target stool DNA test (K-ras, NDRG4, and BMP3) and eight newly characterized methylated biomarkers were commonly expressed in tumor tissue specimens, independent of FIT result. Additional study using stool-based testing with these new biomarkers will allow assessment of sensitivity, specificity, and clinical utility.

Endoscopist fatigue estimates and colonoscopic adenoma detection in a large community-based setting

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Endoscopist fatigue may impact colonoscopy quality, but prior studies conflict, and minimal data exist from community-based practices where most colonoscopies are performed.

METHODS

Within a large, community-based integrated healthcare system, we evaluated the associations among 4 measures of endoscopist fatigue and colonoscopic adenoma detection from 2010 to 2013. Fatigue measures included afternoon versus morning colonoscopy and the number of GI procedures performed before a given colonoscopy, including consideration of prior procedure complexity. Analyses were adjusted for potential confounders using multivariate logistic regression.

RESULTS

We identified 126 gastroenterologists who performed 259,064 total GI procedures (median, 6 per day; range, 1-24), including 76,445 screening and surveillance colonoscopies. Compared with morning examinations, colonoscopies in the afternoon were not associated with lower adenoma detection for screening examinations, surveillance examinations, or their combination (OR for combination, .99; 95% CI, .96-1.03). The number of procedures performed before a given colonoscopy, with or without consideration of prior procedure complexity, was also not inversely associated with adenoma detection (OR for adenoma detection for colonoscopies in the fourth quartile of fatigue based on the number of prior procedures performed vs colonoscopies performed as the first procedure of the day, .99; 95% CI, .94-1.04).

CONCLUSIONS

In a large community-based setting, adenoma detection for screening and surveillance colonoscopies were not associated with either time of day or the number of prior procedures performed by the endoscopist, within the range of procedure volumes evaluated. The lack of association persisted after accounting for prior procedure complexity.

Race/Ethnicity and Adoption of a Population Health Management Approach to Colorectal Cancer Screening in a Community-Based Healthcare System

BACKGROUND

Screening outreach programs using population health management principles offer services uniformly to all eligible persons, but racial/ethnic colorectal cancer (CRC) screening patterns in such programs are not well known.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association between race/ethnicity and the receipt of CRC screening and timely follow-up of positive results before and after implementation of a screening program.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study of screen-eligible individuals at the Kaiser Permanente Northern California community-based integrated healthcare delivery system (2004-2013).

SUBJECTS

A total of 868,934 screen-eligible individuals 51-74 years of age at cohort entry, which included 662,872 persons in the period before program implementation (2004-2006), 654,633 during the first 3 years after implementation (2007-2009), and 665,268 in the period from 4 to 7 years (2010-2013) after program implementation.

INTERVENTION

A comprehensive system-wide long-term effort to increase CRC that included leadership alignment, goal-setting, and quality assurance through a PHM approach, using mailed fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) along with offering screening at office visits.

MAIN MEASURES

Differences over time and by race/ethnicity in up-to-date CRC screening (overall and by test type) and timely follow-up of a positive screen. Race/ethnicity categories included non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic black, Hispanic/Latino, Asian/Pacific Islander, Native American, and multiple races.

KEY RESULTS

From 2004 to 2013, age/sex-adjusted CRC screening rates increased in all groups, including 35.2 to 81.1 % among whites and 35.6 to 78.0 % among blacks. Screening rates among Hispanics (33.1 to 78.3 %) and Native Americans (29.4 to 74.5 %) remained lower than those for whites both before and after program implementation. Blacks, who had slightly higher rates before program implementation (adjusted rate ratio [RR] = 1.04, 99 % CI: 1.02-1.05), had lower rates after program implementation (RR for period from 4 to 7 years = 0.97, 99 % CI: 0.96-0.97). There were also substantial improvements in timely follow-up of positive screening results.

CONCLUSIONS

In this screening program using core PHM principles, CRC screening increased markedly in all racial/ethnic groups, but disparities persisted for some groups and developed in others, which correlated with levels of adoption of mailed FIT.

Consequences of Increasing Time to Colonoscopy Examination After Positive Result From Fecal Colorectal Cancer Screening Test

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Delays in diagnostic testing after a positive result from a screening test can undermine the benefits of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening, but there are few empirical data on the effects of such delays. We used microsimulation modeling to estimate the consequences of time to colonoscopy after a positive result from a fecal immunochemical test (FIT).

METHODS

We used an established microsimulation model to simulate an average-risk United States population cohort that underwent annual FIT screening (from ages 50 to 75 years), with follow-up colonoscopy examinations for individuals with positive results (cutoff, 20 μg/g) at different time points in the following 12 months. Main evaluated outcomes were CRC incidence and mortality; additional outcomes were total life-years lost and net costs of screening.

RESULTS

For individuals who underwent diagnostic colonoscopy within 2 weeks of a positive result from an FIT, the estimated lifetime risk of CRC incidence was 35.5/1000 persons, and mortality was 7.8/1000 persons. Every month added until colonoscopy was associated with a 0.1/1000 person increase in cancer incidence risk (an increase of 0.3%/month, compared with individuals who received colonoscopies within 2 weeks) and mortality risk (increase of 1.4%/month). Among individuals who received colonoscopy examinations 12 months after a positive result from an FIT, the incidence of CRC was 37.0/1000 persons (increase of 4%, compared with 2 weeks), and mortality was 9.1/1000 persons (increase of 16%). Total years of life gained for the entire screening cohort decreased from an estimated 93.7/1000 persons with an almost immediate follow-up colonoscopy (cost savings of $208 per patient, compared with no colonoscopy) to 84.8/1000 persons with follow-up colonoscopies at 12 months (decrease of 9%; cost savings of $100/patient, compared with no colonoscopy).

CONCLUSIONS

By using a microsimulation model of an average-risk United States screening cohort, we estimated that delays of up to 12 months after a positive result from an FIT can produce proportional losses of up to nearly 10% in overall screening benefits. These findings indicate the importance of timely follow-up colonoscopy examinations of patients with positive results from FITs.

Fecal Immunochemical Test Program Performance Over 4 Rounds of Annual Screening: A Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

The fecal immunochemical test (FIT) is a common method for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening, yet its acceptability and performance over several rounds of annual testing are largely unknown.

OBJECTIVE

To assess FIT performance characteristics over 4 rounds of annual screening.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Kaiser Permanente Northern and Southern California.

PATIENTS

323 349 health plan members aged 50 to 70 years on their FIT mailing date in 2007 or 2008 who completed the first round of FIT and were followed for up to 4 screening rounds.

MEASUREMENTS

Screening participation, FIT positivity (≥20 µg of hemoglobin/g), positive predictive values for adenoma and CRC, and FIT sensitivity for detecting CRC obtained from Kaiser Permanente electronic databases and cancer registries.

RESULTS

Of the patients invited for screening, 48.2% participated in round 1. Of those who remained eligible, 75.3% to 86.1% participated in subsequent rounds. Median follow-up was 4.0 years, and 32% of round 1 participants crossed over to endoscopy over 4 screening rounds-7.0% due to a positive FIT result. The FIT positivity rate (5.0%) and positive predictive values (adenoma, 51.5%; CRC, 3.4%) were highest in round 1. Overall, programmatic FIT screening detected 80.4% of patients with CRC diagnosed within 1 year of testing, including 84.5% in round 1 and 73.4% to 78.0% in subsequent rounds.

LIMITATION

Screening detection, rather than long-term cancer prevention, was evaluated.

CONCLUSION

Annual FIT screening was associated with high sensitivity for CRC, with high adherence to annual follow-up screening among initial participants. The findings indicate that annual programmatic FIT screening is feasible and effective for population-level CRC screening.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Institutes of Health.

Factors influencing variation in physician adenoma detection rates: a theory-based approach for performance improvement

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Interventions to improve physician adenoma detection rates for colonoscopy have generally not been successful, and there are little data on the factors contributing to variation that may be appropriate targets for intervention. We sought to identify factors that may influence variation in detection rates by using theory-based tools for understanding behavior.

METHODS

We separately studied gastroenterologists and endoscopy nurses at 3 Kaiser Permanente Northern California medical centers to identify potentially modifiable factors relevant to physician adenoma detection rate variability by using structured group interviews (focus groups) and theory-based tools for understanding behavior and eliciting behavior change: the Capability, Opportunity, and Motivation behavior model; the Theoretical Domains Framework; and the Behavior Change Wheel.

RESULTS

Nine factors potentially associated with adenoma detection rate variability were identified, including 6 related to capability (uncertainty about which types of polyps to remove, style of endoscopy team leadership, compromised ability to focus during an examination due to distractions, examination technique during withdrawal, difficulty detecting certain types of adenomas, and examiner fatigue and pain), 2 related to opportunity (perceived pressure due to the number of examinations expected per shift and social pressure to finish examinations before scheduled breaks or the end of a shift), and 1 related to motivation (valuing a meticulous examination as the top priority). Examples of potential intervention strategies are provided.

CONCLUSIONS

By using theory-based tools, this study identified several novel and potentially modifiable factors relating to capability, opportunity, and motivation that may contribute to adenoma detection rate variability and be appropriate targets for future intervention trials.

Observational methods to assess the effectiveness of screening colonoscopy in reducing right colon cancer mortality risk: SCOLAR

AIMS

Screening colonoscopy's effectiveness in reducing risk of death from right colon cancers remains unclear. Methodological challenges of existing observational studies addressing this issue motivated the design of 'Effectiveness of Screening for Colorectal Cancer in Average-Risk Adults (SCOLAR)'.

METHODS

SCOLAR is a nested case-control study based on two large integrated health systems. This affords access to a large, well-defined historical cohort linked to integrated data on cancer outcomes, patient eligibility, test indications and important confounders.

RESULTS

We found electronic data adequate for excluding ineligible patients (except family history), but not the detailed information needed for test indication assignment.

CONCLUSION

The lessons of SCOLAR's design and implementation may be useful for future studies seeking to evaluate the effectiveness of screening tests in community settings.

Metformin use and risk of colorectal adenoma after polypectomy in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

BACKGROUND

Existing literature suggests that metformin, the most commonly used biguanide, may lower colorectal cancer risk. Because most colorectal cancers originate in precancerous adenomas, we examined whether metformin use lowered colorectal adenoma risk after polypectomy in patients with type-2 diabetes.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study of 40- to 89-year-old Kaiser Permanente Northern California patients who had type 2 diabetes, and ≥1 adenoma detected at baseline colonoscopy during 2000 to 2009 and a repeat colonoscopy 1 to 10 years from baseline adenoma diagnosis through 2012. Cox models evaluated the association between metformin use during follow-up and subsequent adenoma diagnoses, controlling for age, race/ethnicity, sex, body mass index, and repeat examination indication.

RESULTS

Study included 2,412 patients followed for a median of 4.5 years; cumulatively, 1,117 (46%) patients had ≥1 adenoma at repeat colonoscopy. Compared with patients not receiving diabetes medications (n = 1,578), metformin-only use (n = 457) was associated with lower adenoma recurrence risk [adjusted HR, 0.76; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.65-0.89], and the association was stronger with increasing total metformin dose [quartile (Q) 1: HR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.72-1.12; Q2: HR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.70-1.12; Q3: HR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.63-1.01; Q4: HR, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.42-0.60, Ptrend < 0.001]. Findings were unchanged in sensitivity analyses, including evaluating only outcomes during the 3- to 10-year period from baseline.

CONCLUSION

Our study suggests a potential benefit of metformin use in lowering the risk of subsequent adenomas after polypectomy in patients with type 2 diabetes.

IMPACT

Metformin may lower colorectal cancer risk by reducing the formation of precancerous lesions, reinforcing the potential additional benefits of its use.

Variation in Adenoma Detection Rate and the Lifetime Benefits and Cost of Colorectal Cancer Screening: A Microsimulation Model

IMPORTANCE

Colonoscopy is the most commonly used colorectal cancer screening test in the United States. Its quality, as measured by adenoma detection rates (ADRs), varies widely among physicians, with unknown consequences for the cost and benefits of screening programs.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the lifetime benefits, complications, and costs of an initial colonoscopy screening program at different levels of adenoma detection.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Microsimulation modeling with data from a community-based health care system on ADR variation and cancer risk among 57,588 patients examined by 136 physicians from 1998 through 2010.

EXPOSURES

Using modeling, no screening was compared with screening initiation with colonoscopy according to ADR quintiles (averages 15.3%, quintile 1; 21.3%, quintile 2; 25.6%, quintile 3; 30.9%, quintile 4; and 38.7%, quintile 5) at ages 50, 60, and 70 years with appropriate surveillance of patients with adenoma.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Estimated lifetime colorectal cancer incidence and mortality, number of colonoscopies, complications, and costs per 1000 patients, all discounted at 3% per year and including 95% confidence intervals from multiway probabilistic sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

In simulation modeling, among unscreened patients the lifetime risk of colorectal cancer incidence was 34.2 per 1000 (95% CI, 25.9-43.6) and risk of mortality was 13.4 per 1000 (95% CI, 10.0-17.6). Among screened patients, simulated lifetime incidence decreased with lower to higher ADRs (26.6; 95% CI, 20.0-34.3 for quintile 1 vs 12.5; 95% CI, 9.3-16.5 for quintile 5) as did mortality (5.7; 95% CI, 4.2-7.7 for quintile 1 vs 2.3; 95% CI, 1.7-3.1 for quintile 5). Compared with quintile 1, simulated lifetime incidence was on average 11.4% (95% CI, 10.3%-11.9%) lower for every 5 percentage-point increase of ADRs and for mortality, 12.8% (95% CI, 11.1%-13.7%) lower. Complications increased from 6.0 (95% CI, 4.0-8.5) of 2777 colonoscopies (95% CI, 2626-2943) in quintile 1 to 8.9 (95% CI, 6.1-12.0) complications of 3376 (95% CI, 3081-3681) colonoscopies in quintile 5. Estimated net screening costs were lower from quintile 1 (US $2.1 million, 95% CI, $1.8-$2.4 million) to quintile 5 (US $1.8 million, 95% CI, $1.3-$2.3 million) due to averted cancer treatment costs. Results were stable across sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this microsimulation modeling study, higher adenoma detection rates in screening colonoscopy were associated with lower lifetime risks of colorectal cancer and colorectal cancer mortality without being associated with higher overall costs. Future research is needed to assess whether increasing adenoma detection would be associated with improved patient outcomes.

Development and validation of an algorithm for classifying colonoscopy indication

BACKGROUND

Accurate determination of colonoscopy indication is required for managing clinical programs and performing research; however, existing algorithms that use available electronic databases (eg, diagnostic and procedure codes) have yielded limited accuracy.

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate an algorithm for classifying colonoscopy indication that uses comprehensive electronic medical data sources.

DESIGN

We developed an algorithm for classifying colonoscopy indication by using commonly available electronic diagnostic, pathology, cancer, and laboratory test databases and validated its performance characteristics in comparison with a comprehensive review of patient medical records. We also evaluated the influence of each data source on the algorithm's performance characteristics.

SETTING

Kaiser Permanente Northern California healthcare system.

PATIENTS

A total of 300 patients who underwent colonoscopy between 2007 and 2010.

INTERVENTIONS

Colonoscopy.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS

Algorithm's sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value (PPV) for classifying screening, surveillance, and diagnostic colonoscopies. The reference standard was the indication assigned after comprehensive medical record review.

RESULTS

For screening indications, the algorithm's sensitivity was 88.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 80.4%-91.7%), specificity was 91.7% (95% CI, 87.0%-95.1%), and PPV was 83.3% (95% CI, 74.7%-90.0%). For surveillance indications, the algorithm's sensitivity was 93.4% (95% CI, 86.2%-97.5%), specificity was 92.8% (95% CI, 88.4%-95.9%), and PPV was 85.0% (95% CI, 76.5%-91.4%). The algorithm's sensitivity, specificity, and PPV for diagnostic indications were 81.4% (95% CI, 73.0%-88.1%), 96.8% (95% CI, 93.2%-98.8%), and 93.9% (95% CI, 87.2%-97.7%), respectively.

LIMITATIONS

Validation was confined to a single healthcare system.

CONCLUSION

An algorithm that uses commonly available modern electronic medical data sources yielded a high sensitivity, specificity, and PPV for classifying screening, surveillance, and diagnostic colonoscopy indications. This algorithm had greater accuracy than the indication listed on the colonoscopy report.

Adenoma detection rate and risk of colorectal cancer and death

BACKGROUND

The proportion of screening colonoscopic examinations performed by a physician that detect one or more adenomas (the adenoma detection rate) is a recommended quality measure. However, little is known about the association between this rate and patients' risks of a subsequent colorectal cancer (interval cancer) and death.

METHODS

Using data from an integrated health care delivery organization, we evaluated the associations between the adenoma detection rate and the risks of colorectal cancer diagnosed 6 months to 10 years after colonoscopy and of cancer-related death. With the use of Cox regression, our estimates of attributable risk were adjusted for the demographic characteristics of the patients, indications for colonoscopy, and coexisting conditions.

RESULTS

We evaluated 314,872 colonoscopies performed by 136 gastroenterologists; the adenoma detection rates ranged from 7.4 to 52.5%. During the follow-up period, we identified 712 interval colorectal adenocarcinomas, including 255 advanced-stage cancers, and 147 deaths from interval colorectal cancer. The unadjusted risks of interval cancer according to quintiles of adenoma detection rates, from lowest to highest, were 9.8, 8.6, 8.0, 7.0, and 4.8 cases per 10,000 person-years of follow-up, respectively. Among patients of physicians with adenoma detection rates in the highest quintile, as compared with patients of physicians with detection rates in the lowest quintile, the adjusted hazard ratio for any interval cancer was 0.52 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.39 to 0.69), for advanced-stage interval cancer, 0.43 (95% CI, 0.29 to 0.64), and for fatal interval cancer, 0.38 (95% CI, 0.22 to 0.65). Each 1.0% increase in the adenoma detection rate was associated with a 3.0% decrease in the risk of cancer (hazard ratio, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.96 to 0.98).

CONCLUSIONS

The adenoma detection rate was inversely associated with the risks of interval colorectal cancer, advanced-stage interval cancer, and fatal interval cancer. (Funded by the Kaiser Permanente Community Benefit program and the National Cancer Institute.).