Systematic approach to outcome assessment from coded electronic healthcare records in the DaRe2THINK NHS-embedded randomized trial. EUROPEAN HEART JOURNAL. DIGITAL HEALTH 2022;3:426-436. [PMID: 36712153 PMCID: PMC9708037 DOI: 10.1093/ehjdh/ztac046]

Aims

Improving the efficiency of clinical trials is key to their continued importance in directing evidence-based patient care. Digital innovations, in particular the use of electronic healthcare records (EHRs), allow for large-scale screening and follow up of participants. However, it is critical these developments are accompanied by robust and transparent methods that can support high-quality and high clinical value research.

Methods and results

The DaRe2THINK trial includes a series of novel processes, including nationwide pseudonymized pre screening of the primary-care EHR across England, digital enrolment, remote e-consent, and 'no-visit' follow up by linking all primary- and secondary-care health data with patient-reported outcomes. DaRe2THINK is a pragmatic, healthcare-embedded randomized trial testing whether earlier use of direct oral anticoagulants in patients with prior or current atrial fibrillation can prevent thromboembolic events and cognitive decline (www.birmingham.ac.uk/dare2think). This study outlines the systematic approach and methodology employed to define patient information and outcome events. This includes transparency on all medical code lists and phenotypes used in the trial across a variety of national data sources, including Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum (primary care), Hospital Episode Statistics (secondary care), and the Office for National Statistics (mortality).

Conclusion

Co-designed by a patient and public involvement team, DaRe2THINK presents an opportunity to transform the approach to randomized trials in the setting of routine healthcare, providing high-quality evidence generation in populations representative of the community at risk.

Angiotensin receptor blockers and β blockers in Marfan syndrome: an individual patient data meta-analysis of randomised trials

BACKGROUND

Angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) and β blockers are widely used in the treatment of Marfan syndrome to try to reduce the rate of progressive aortic root enlargement characteristic of this condition, but their separate and joint effects are uncertain. We aimed to determine these effects in a collaborative individual patient data meta-analysis of randomised trials of these treatments.

METHODS

In this meta-analysis, we identified relevant trials of patients with Marfan syndrome by systematically searching MEDLINE, Embase, and CENTRAL from database inception to Nov 2, 2021. Trials were eligible if they involved a randomised comparison of an ARB versus control or an ARB versus β blocker. We used individual patient data from patients with no prior aortic surgery to estimate the effects of: ARB versus control (placebo or open control); ARB versus β blocker; and indirectly, β blocker versus control. The primary endpoint was the annual rate of change of body surface area-adjusted aortic root dimension Z score, measured at the sinuses of Valsalva.

FINDINGS

We identified ten potentially eligible trials including 1836 patients from our search, from which seven trials and 1442 patients were eligible for inclusion in our main analyses. Four trials involving 676 eligible participants compared ARB with control. During a median follow-up of 3 years, allocation to ARB approximately halved the annual rate of change in the aortic root Z score (mean annual increase 0·07 [SE 0·02] ARB vs 0·13 [SE 0·02] control; absolute difference -0·07 [95% CI -0·12 to -0·01]; p=0·012). Prespecified secondary subgroup analyses showed that the effects of ARB were particularly large in those with pathogenic variants in fibrillin-1, compared with those without such variants (heterogeneity p=0·0050), and there was no evidence to suggest that the effect of ARB varied with β-blocker use (heterogeneity p=0·54). Three trials involving 766 eligible participants compared ARBs with β blockers. During a median follow-up of 3 years, the annual change in the aortic root Z score was similar in the two groups (annual increase -0·08 [SE 0·03] in ARB groups vs -0·11 [SE 0·02] in β-blocker groups; absolute difference 0·03 [95% CI -0·05 to 0·10]; p=0·48). Thus, indirectly, the difference in the annual change in the aortic root Z score between β blockers and control was -0·09 (95% CI -0·18 to 0·00; p=0·042).

INTERPRETATION

In people with Marfan syndrome and no previous aortic surgery, ARBs reduced the rate of increase of the aortic root Z score by about one half, including among those taking a β blocker. The effects of β blockers were similar to those of ARBs. Assuming additivity, combination therapy with both ARBs and β blockers from the time of diagnosis would provide even greater reductions in the rate of aortic enlargement than either treatment alone, which, if maintained over a number of years, would be expected to lead to a delay in the need for aortic surgery.

FUNDING

Marfan Foundation, the Oxford British Heart Foundation Centre for Research Excellence, and the UK Medical Research Council.

ESC guidance for the diagnosis and management of cardiovascular disease during the COVID-19 pandemic: part 2-care pathways, treatment, and follow-up

AIMS

Since its emergence in early 2020, the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 causing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has reached pandemic levels, and there have been repeated outbreaks across the globe. The aim of this two part series is to provide practical knowledge and guidance to aid clinicians in the diagnosis and management of cardiovascular (CV) disease in association with COVID-19.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A narrative literature review of the available evidence has been performed, and the resulting information has been organized into two parts. The first, which was reported previously, focused on the epidemiology, pathophysiology, and diagnosis of CV conditions that may be manifest in patients with COVID-19. This second part addresses the topics of: care pathways and triage systems and management and treatment pathways, both of the most commonly encountered CV conditions and of COVID-19; and information that may be considered useful to help patients with CV disease (CVD) to avoid exposure to COVID-19.

CONCLUSION

This comprehensive review is not a formal guideline but rather a document that provides a summary of current knowledge and guidance to practicing clinicians managing patients with CVD and COVID-19. The recommendations are mainly the result of observations and personal experience from healthcare providers. Therefore, the information provided here may be subject to change with increasing knowledge, evidence from prospective studies, and changes in the pandemic. Likewise, the guidance provided in the document should not interfere with recommendations provided by local and national healthcare authorities.

European Society of Cardiology guidance for the diagnosis and management of cardiovascular disease during the COVID-19 pandemic: part 1-epidemiology, pathophysiology, and diagnosis

AIMS

Since its emergence in early 2020, the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 causing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has reached pandemic levels, and there have been repeated outbreaks across the globe. The aim of this two-part series is to provide practical knowledge and guidance to aid clinicians in the diagnosis and management of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in association with COVID-19.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A narrative literature review of the available evidence has been performed, and the resulting information has been organized into two parts. The first, reported here, focuses on the epidemiology, pathophysiology, and diagnosis of cardiovascular (CV) conditions that may be manifest in patients with COVID-19. The second part, which will follow in a later edition of the journal, addresses the topics of care pathways, treatment, and follow-up of CV conditions in patients with COVID-19.

CONCLUSION

This comprehensive review is not a formal guideline but rather a document that provides a summary of current knowledge and guidance to practicing clinicians managing patients with CVD and COVID-19. The recommendations are mainly the result of observations and personal experience from healthcare providers. Therefore, the information provided here may be subject to change with increasing knowledge, evidence from prospective studies, and changes in the pandemic. Likewise, the guidance provided in the document should not interfere with recommendations provided by local and national healthcare authorities.

Long-term safety and efficacy of anacetrapib in patients with atherosclerotic vascular disease

AIMS

REVEAL was the first randomized controlled trial to demonstrate that adding cholesteryl ester transfer protein inhibitor therapy to intensive statin therapy reduced the risk of major coronary events. We now report results from extended follow-up beyond the scheduled study treatment period.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total of 30 449 adults with prior atherosclerotic vascular disease were randomly allocated to anacetrapib 100 mg daily or matching placebo, in addition to open-label atorvastatin therapy. After stopping the randomly allocated treatment, 26 129 survivors entered a post-trial follow-up period, blind to their original treatment allocation. The primary outcome was first post-randomization major coronary event (i.e. coronary death, myocardial infarction, or coronary revascularization) during the in-trial and post-trial treatment periods, with analysis by intention-to-treat. Allocation to anacetrapib conferred a 9% [95% confidence interval (CI) 3-15%; P = 0.004] proportional reduction in the incidence of major coronary events during the study treatment period (median 4.1 years). During extended follow-up (median 2.2 years), there was a further 20% (95% CI 10-29%; P < 0.001) reduction. Overall, there was a 12% (95% CI 7-17%, P < 0.001) proportional reduction in major coronary events during the overall follow-up period (median 6.3 years), corresponding to a 1.8% (95% CI 1.0-2.6%) absolute reduction. There were no significant effects on non-vascular mortality, site-specific cancer, or other serious adverse events. Morbidity follow-up was obtained for 25 784 (99%) participants.

CONCLUSION

The beneficial effects of anacetrapib on major coronary events increased with longer follow-up, and no adverse effects emerged on non-vascular mortality or morbidity. These findings illustrate the importance of sufficiently long treatment and follow-up duration in randomized trials of lipid-modifying agents to assess their full benefits and potential harms.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number (ISRCTN) 48678192; ClinicalTrials.gov No. NCT01252953; EudraCT No. 2010-023467-18.

ESC guidance for the diagnosis and management of cardiovascular disease during the COVID-19 pandemic: part 2-care pathways, treatment, and follow-up

AIMS

Since its emergence in early 2020, the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 causing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has reached pandemic levels, and there have been repeated outbreaks across the globe. The aim of this two part series is to provide practical knowledge and guidance to aid clinicians in the diagnosis and management of cardiovascular (CV) disease in association with COVID-19.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A narrative literature review of the available evidence has been performed, and the resulting information has been organized into two parts. The first, which was reported previously, focused on the epidemiology, pathophysiology, and diagnosis of CV conditions that may be manifest in patients with COVID-19. This second part addresses the topics of: care pathways and triage systems and management and treatment pathways, both of the most commonly encountered CV conditions and of COVID-19; and information that may be considered useful to help patients with CV disease (CVD) to avoid exposure to COVID-19.

CONCLUSION

This comprehensive review is not a formal guideline but rather a document that provides a summary of current knowledge and guidance to practicing clinicians managing patients with CVD and COVID-19. The recommendations are mainly the result of observations and personal experience from healthcare providers. Therefore, the information provided here may be subject to change with increasing knowledge, evidence from prospective studies, and changes in the pandemic. Likewise, the guidance provided in the document should not interfere with recommendations provided by local and national healthcare authorities.

European Society of Cardiology guidance for the diagnosis and management of cardiovascular disease during the COVID-19 pandemic: part 1-epidemiology, pathophysiology, and diagnosis

AIMS

Since its emergence in early 2020, the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 causing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has reached pandemic levels, and there have been repeated outbreaks across the globe. The aim of this two-part series is to provide practical knowledge and guidance to aid clinicians in the diagnosis and management of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in association with COVID-19.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A narrative literature review of the available evidence has been performed, and the resulting information has been organized into two parts. The first, reported here, focuses on the epidemiology, pathophysiology, and diagnosis of cardiovascular (CV) conditions that may be manifest in patients with COVID-19. The second part, which will follow in a later edition of the journal, addresses the topics of care pathways, treatment, and follow-up of CV conditions in patients with COVID-19.

CONCLUSION

This comprehensive review is not a formal guideline but rather a document that provides a summary of current knowledge and guidance to practicing clinicians managing patients with CVD and COVID-19. The recommendations are mainly the result of observations and personal experience from healthcare providers. Therefore, the information provided here may be subject to change with increasing knowledge, evidence from prospective studies, and changes in the pandemic. Likewise, the guidance provided in the document should not interfere with recommendations provided by local and national healthcare authorities.

European Society of Cardiology methodology for the development of quality indicators for the quantification of cardiovascular care and outcomes

AIMS

It is increasingly recognized that tools are required for assessing and benchmarking quality of care in order to improve it. The European Society of Cardiology (ESC) is developing a suite of quality indicators (QIs) to evaluate cardiovascular care and support the delivery of evidence-based care. This paper describes the methodology used for their development.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We propose a four-step process for the development of the ESC QIs. For a specific clinical area with a gap in care delivery, the QI development process includes: (i) the identification of key domains of care by constructing a conceptual framework of care; (ii) the construction of candidate QIs by conducting a systematic review of the literature; (iii) the selection of a final set of QIs by obtaining expert opinions using the modified Delphi method; and (iv) the undertaking of a feasibility assessment by evaluating different ways of defining the QI specifications for the proposed data collection source. For each of the four steps, key methodological areas need to be addressed to inform the implementation process and avoid misinterpretation of the measurement results.

CONCLUSION

Detailing the methodology for the ESC QIs construction enables healthcare providers to develop valid and feasible metrics to measure and improve the quality of cardiovascular care. As such, high-quality evidence may be translated into clinical practice and the 'evidence-practice' gap closed.

Net effects of sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibition in different patient groups: a meta-analysis of large placebo-controlled randomized trials

BACKGROUND

The net absolute effects of sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT-2) inhibitors across different patient groups have not been quantified.

METHODS

We performed a meta-analysis of published large (>500 participants/arm) placebo-controlled SGLT-2 inhibitor trials after systematically searching MEDLINE and Embase databases from inception to 28th August 2021 (PROSPERO 2021 CRD42021240468).

FINDINGS

Four heart failure trials (n=15,684 participants), four trials in type 2 diabetes mellitus at high atherosclerotic cardiovascular risk (n=42,568), and three trials in chronic kidney disease (n=19,289) were included. Relative risks (RRs) for all cardiovascular, renal and safety outcomes were broadly similar across these three patient groups, and between people with or without diabetes. Overall, compared to placebo, allocation to SGLT-2 inhibition reduced risk of hospitalization for heart failure or cardiovascular death by 23% (RR=0.77, 95%CI 0.73-0.80; n=6658), cardiovascular death by 14% (0.86, 0.81-0.92; n=3962), major adverse cardiovascular events by 11% (0.89, 0.84-0.94; n=5703), kidney disease progression by 36% (0.64, 0.59-0.70; n=2275), acute kidney injury by 30% (0.70, 0.62-0.79; n=1013 events) and severe hypoglycaemia by 13% (0.87, 0.79-0.97; n=1484). There was no effect of SGLT-2 inhibition on risk of non-cardiovascular death (0.93, 0.86-1.01; n=2226), but a net 12% reduction in all-cause mortality remained evident (0.88, 0.84-0.93; n=6188). However, the risk of ketoacidosis was 2-times higher among those allocated SGLT-2 inhibitors compared to placebo (2.03, 1.41-2.93; n=159; absolute excess in people with diabetes ∼0.3/1000 patient years). A small increased risk of urinary tract infection was evident (1.07, 1.02-1.13; n=5384) alongside a known increased risk of mycotic genital infections. Overall, risk of lower limb amputations was increased by 16% (1.16, 1.02-1.31; n=1074), but this risk was largely driven by a single outlying trial (CANVAS).

INTERPRETATIONS

The relative effects of SGLT-2 inhibition on key safety and efficacy outcomes are consistent across the different studied groups of patient. Consequently, absolute benefits and harms are determined by the absolute baseline risk of particular outcomes, with absolute benefits on mortality and on non-fatal serious cardiac/renal outcomes substantially exceeding the risks of amputation and ketoacidosis in the main patient groups studied to date.

FUNDING

MRC-UK & KRUK.

A model of lifetime health outcomes in cardiovascular disease based on clinical trials and large cohorts

Background and purpose

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk of individuals depends on their socio-demographic characteristics, clinical risk factors, and treatments, and strongly influences their quality of life and survival. Individual-based long-term disease models, which aim to more accurately calculate the lifetime consequences, can help to target treatments, develop disease management programmes, and assess the value of new therapies. We present a new micro-simulation CVD model.

Methods

This micro-simulation model was developed using individual participant data from the Cholesterol Treatment Trialists' collaboration (CTT: 118,000 participants; 15 trials) and calibrated (with added socioeconomic deprivation, ethnicity, physical activity, mental illness, cancer and incident diabetes) in the UK Biobank cohort (UKB: 502,000 participants). Parametric survival models estimated risks of key endpoints (myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, coronary revascularisation (CRV), diabetes, cancer and vascular (VD) and nonvascular death (NVD) using participants' age, sex, ethnicity, physical activity, socioeconomic deprivation, smoking history, lipids, blood pressure, creatinine, previous cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, mental illness and cancer at entry and non-fatal incidents of the key endpoints during follow-up. The model integrates the risk equations and enables annual projection of endpoints and survival over individuals' lifetimes. The model was used to project remaining life expectancy across UK Biobank participants.

Results

Nonfatal cardiovascular events and age were the major determinants of CVD risk and, together with incident diabetes and cancer, of individuals' survival. The cumulative incidence of the key endpoints predicted by the CTT-UKB model corresponded well to their observed incidence in the UK Biobank cohort, overall (Figure 1) and in categories of participants by age, sex, prior CVD and CVD risk. Predicted remaining life expectancy across UK Biobank participants without history of CVD ranged between 22 and 43 years in men and between 24 and 46 years in women, depending on their age and CVD risk (Figure 2). Among UK Biobank participants with history of CVD, depending on their age, predicted remaining life expectancy ranged from 20 to 32 years in men and from 26 to 38 years in women.

Conclusion

This new lifetime CVD model accurately predicts morbidity and mortality in a large UK population cohort. It will be made available to provide individualised projections of expected lifetime health outcomes and benefits of treatments.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): UK National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Programme, UK Medical Research Council (MRC), British Heart Foundation Figure 1. Predicted (in black) versus observed (95% CI; in red) incidence of major clinical outcomes in the UK Biobank.Figure 2. Predicted remaining life expectancy of participants in UK Biobank cohort, by age and CVD risk or previous CVD at entry. QRISK, a 10-year CVD risk scoring algorithm for people without previous CVD, recommended for use in the UK National Health Service.

Relationship between anaemia, coagulation parameters during pregnancy and postpartum haemorrhage at childbirth: a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the association between coagulation parameters and severity of anaemia (moderate anaemia: haemoglobin (Hb) 7-9.9 g/dL and severe anaemia: Hb <7 g/dL) during pregnancy and relate these to postpartum haemorrhage (PPH) at childbirth.

DESIGN

A prospective cohort study of pregnant women recruited in the third trimester and followed-up after childbirth.

SETTING

Ten hospitals across four states in India.

PARTICIPANTS

1342 pregnant women.

INTERVENTION

Not applicable.

METHODS

Hb and coagulation parameters: fibrinogen, D-dimer, D-dimer/fibrinogen ratio, platelets and international normalised ratio (INR) were measured at baseline. Participants were followed-up to measure blood loss within 2 hours after childbirth and PPH was defined based on blood loss and clinical assessment. Associations between coagulation parameters, Hb, anaemia and PPH were examined using multivariable logistic regression models.

OUTCOMES MEASURES

Adjusted OR with 95% CI.

RESULTS

In women with severe anaemia during the third trimester, the D-dimer was 27% higher, mean fibrinogen 117 mg/dL lower, D-dimer/fibrinogen ratio 69% higher and INR 12% higher compared with women with no/mild anaemia. Mean platelets in severe anaemia was 37.8×109/L lower compared with women with moderate anaemia. Similar relationships with smaller effect sizes were identified for women with moderate anaemia compared with women with no/mild anaemia. Low Hb and high INR at third trimester of pregnancy independently increased the odds of PPH at childbirth, but the other coagulation parameters were not found to be significantly associated with PPH.

CONCLUSION

Altered blood coagulation profile in pregnant women with severe anaemia could be a risk factor for PPH and requires further evaluation.

Effects of oral anticoagulation for atrial fibrillation after spontaneous intracranial haemorrhage in the UK: a randomised, open-label, assessor-masked, pilot-phase, non-inferiority trial

BACKGROUND

Oral anticoagulation reduces the rate of systemic embolism for patients with atrial fibrillation by two-thirds, but its benefits for patients with previous intracranial haemorrhage are uncertain. In the Start or STop Anticoagulants Randomised Trial (SoSTART), we aimed to establish whether starting is non-inferior to avoiding oral anticoagulation for survivors of intracranial haemorrhage who have atrial fibrillation.

METHODS

SoSTART was a prospective, randomised, open-label, assessor-masked, parallel-group, pilot phase trial done at 67 hospitals in the UK. We recruited adults (aged ≥18 years) who had survived at least 24 h after symptomatic spontaneous intracranial haemorrhage, had atrial fibrillation, and had a CHA2DS2-VASc score of at least 2. Web-based computerised randomisation incorporating a minimisation algorithm allocated participants (1:1) to start or avoid long-term (≥1 year) full treatment dose open-label oral anticoagulation. The participants assigned to start oral anticoagulation received either a direct oral anticoagulant or vitamin K antagonist, and the group assigned to avoid oral anticoagulation received standard clinical practice (antiplatelet agent or no antithrombotic agent). The primary outcome was recurrent symptomatic spontaneous intracranial haemorrhage, and was adjudicated by an individual masked to treatment allocation. All outcomes were ascertained for at least 1 year after randomisation and assessed in the intention-to-treat population of all randomly assigned participants, using Cox proportional hazards regression adjusted for minimisation covariates. We planned a sample size of 190 participants (one-sided p=0·025, power 90%, allowing for non-adherence) based on a non-inferiority margin of 12% (or adjusted hazard ratio [HR] of 3·2). This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03153150) and is complete.

FINDINGS

Between March 29, 2018, and Feb 27, 2020, consent was obtained at 61 sites for 218 participants, of whom 203 were randomly assigned at a median of 115 days (IQR 49-265) after intracranial haemorrhage onset. 101 were assigned to start and 102 to avoid oral anticoagulation. Participants were followed up for median of 1·2 years (IQR 0·97-1·95; completeness 97·2%). Starting oral anticoagulation was not non-inferior to avoiding oral anticoagulation: eight (8%) of 101 in the start group versus four (4%) of 102 in the avoid group had intracranial haemorrhage recurrences (adjusted HR 2·42 [95% CI 0·72-8·09]; p=0·152). Serious adverse events occurred in 17 (17%) participants in the start group and 15 (15%) in the avoid group. 22 (22%) patients in the start group and 11 (11%) patients in the avoid group died during the study.

INTERPRETATION

Whether starting oral anticoagulation was non-inferior to avoiding it for people with atrial fibrillation after intracranial haemorrhage was inconclusive, although rates of recurrent intracranial haemorrhage were lower than expected. In view of weak evidence from analyses of three composite secondary outcomes, the possibility that oral anticoagulation might be superior for preventing symptomatic major vascular events should be investigated in adequately powered randomised trials.

FUNDING

British Heart Foundation, Medical Research Council, Chest Heart & Stroke Scotland.

Age-stratified and blood-pressure-stratified effects of blood-pressure-lowering pharmacotherapy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease and death: an individual participant-level data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The effects of pharmacological blood-pressure-lowering on cardiovascular outcomes in individuals aged 70 years and older, particularly when blood pressure is not substantially increased, is uncertain. We compared the effects of blood-pressure-lowering treatment on the risk of major cardiovascular events in groups of patients stratified by age and blood pressure at baseline.

METHODS

We did a meta-analysis using individual participant-level data from randomised controlled trials of pharmacological blood-pressure-lowering versus placebo or other classes of blood-pressure-lowering medications, or between more versus less intensive treatment strategies, which had at least 1000 persons-years of follow-up in each treatment group. Participants with previous history of heart failure were excluded. Data were obtained from the Blood Pressure Lowering Treatment Triallists' Collaboration. We pooled the data and categorised participants into baseline age groups (<55 years, 55-64 years, 65-74 years, 75-84 years, and ≥85 years) and blood pressure categories (in 10 mm Hg increments from <120 mm Hg to ≥170 mm Hg systolic blood pressure and from <70 mm Hg to ≥110 mm Hg diastolic). We used a fixed effects one-stage approach and applied Cox proportional hazard models, stratified by trial, to analyse the data. The primary outcome was defined as either a composite of fatal or non-fatal stroke, fatal or non-fatal myocardial infarction or ischaemic heart disease, or heart failure causing death or requiring hospital admission.

FINDINGS

We included data from 358 707 participants from 51 randomised clinical trials. The age of participants at randomisation ranged from 21 years to 105 years (median 65 years [IQR 59-75]), with 42 960 (12·0%) participants younger than 55 years, 128 437 (35·8%) aged 55-64 years, 128 506 (35·8%) 65-74 years, 54 016 (15·1%) 75-84 years, and 4788 (1·3%) 85 years and older. The hazard ratios for the risk of major cardiovascular events per 5 mm Hg reduction in systolic blood pressure for each age group were 0·82 (95% CI 0·76-0·88) in individuals younger than 55 years, 0·91 (0·88-0·95) in those aged 55-64 years, 0·91 (0·88-0·95) in those aged 65-74 years, 0·91 (0·87-0·96) in those aged 75-84 years, and 0·99 (0·87-1·12) in those aged 85 years and older (adjusted pinteraction=0·050). Similar patterns of proportional risk reductions were observed for a 3 mm Hg reduction in diastolic blood pressure. Absolute risk reductions for major cardiovascular events varied by age and were larger in older groups (adjusted pinteraction=0·024). We did not find evidence for any clinically meaningful heterogeneity of relative treatment effects across different baseline blood pressure categories in any age group.

INTERPRETATION

Pharmacological blood pressure reduction is effective into old age, with no evidence that relative risk reductions for prevention of major cardiovascular events vary by systolic or diastolic blood pressure levels at randomisation, down to less than 120/70 mm Hg. Pharmacological blood pressure reduction should, therefore, be considered an important treatment option regardless of age, with the removal of age-related blood-pressure thresholds from international guidelines.

FUNDING

British Heart Foundation, National Institute of Health Research Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, Oxford Martin School.

Cardiac, renal, and metabolic effects of sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors: a position paper from the European Society of Cardiology ad-hoc task force on sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors

In 2015, the first large-scale placebo-controlled trial designed to assess cardiovascular safety of glucose-lowering with sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibition in type 2 diabetes mellitus raised hypotheses that the class could favourably modify not only risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, but also hospitalization for heart failure, and the development or worsening of nephropathy. By the start of 2021, results from 10 large SGLT2 inhibitor placebo-controlled clinical outcome trials randomizing ∼71 000 individuals have confirmed that SGLT2 inhibitors can provide clinical benefits for each of these types of outcome in a range of different populations. The cardiovascular and renal benefits of SGLT2 inhibitors appear to be larger than their comparatively modest effect on glycaemic control or glycosuria alone would predict, with three trials recently reporting that clinical benefits extend to individuals without diabetes mellitus who are at risk due to established heart failure, or albuminuric chronic kidney disease. This European Society of Cardiology position paper summarizes reported results from these 10 large clinical outcome trials considering separately each of the different types of cardiorenal benefit, summarizes key molecular and pathophysiological mechanisms, and provides a synopsis of metabolic effects and safety. We also describe ongoing placebo-controlled trials among individuals with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction and among individuals with chronic kidney disease.

Independent risk factors for simvastatin-related myopathy and relevance to different types of muscle symptom

Aims

Statins are widely used to prevent cardiovascular events, but little is known about the impact of different risk factors for statin-related myopathy or their relevance to reports of other types of muscle symptom.

Methods and results

An observational analysis was undertaken of 171 clinically adjudicated cases of myopathy (defined as unexplained muscle pain or weakness with creatine kinase >10× upper limit of normal) and, separately, of 15 208 cases of other muscle symptoms among 58 390 individuals with vascular disease treated with simvastatin for a mean of 3.4 years. Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify independent predictors of myopathy. The rate of myopathy was low: 9 per 10 000 person-years of simvastatin therapy. Independent risk factors for myopathy included: simvastatin dose, ethnicity, sex, age, body mass index, medically treated diabetes, concomitant use of niacin-laropiprant, verapamil, beta-blockers, diltiazem and diuretics. In combination, these risk factors predicted more than a 30-fold risk difference between the top and bottom thirds of a myopathy risk score (hazard ratio : 34.35, 95% CI: 12.73–92.69, P across thirds = 9·1 × 10⁻⁴⁸). However, despite the strong association with myopathy, this score was not associated with the other reported muscle symptoms (P across thirds = 0.93). Likewise, although SLCO1B1 genotype was associated with myopathy, it was not associated with other muscle symptoms.

Conclusions

The absolute risk of simvastatin-related myopathy is low, but individuals at higher risk can be identified to help guide patient management. The lack of association of the myopathy risk score with other muscle symptoms reinforces randomized placebo-controlled evidence that statins do not cause the vast majority of reported muscle symptoms.

Pharmacological blood pressure lowering for primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease across different levels of blood pressure: an individual participant-level data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The effects of pharmacological blood pressure lowering at normal or high-normal blood pressure ranges in people with or without pre-existing cardiovascular disease remains uncertain. We analysed individual participant data from randomised trials to investigate the effects of blood pressure lowering treatment on the risk of major cardiovascular events by baseline levels of systolic blood pressure.

METHODS

We did a meta-analysis of individual participant-level data from 48 randomised trials of pharmacological blood pressure lowering medications versus placebo or other classes of blood pressure-lowering medications, or between more versus less intensive treatment regimens, which had at least 1000 persons-years of follow-up in each group. Trials exclusively done with participants with heart failure or short-term interventions in participants with acute myocardial infarction or other acute settings were excluded. Data from 51 studies published between 1972 and 2013 were obtained by the Blood Pressure Lowering Treatment Trialists' Collaboration (Oxford University, Oxford, UK). We pooled the data to investigate the stratified effects of blood pressure-lowering treatment in participants with and without prevalent cardiovascular disease (ie, any reports of stroke, myocardial infarction, or ischaemic heart disease before randomisation), overall and across seven systolic blood pressure categories (ranging from <120 to ≥170 mm Hg). The primary outcome was a major cardiovascular event (defined as a composite of fatal and non-fatal stroke, fatal or non-fatal myocardial infarction or ischaemic heart disease, or heart failure causing death or requiring admission to hospital), analysed as per intention to treat.

FINDINGS

Data for 344 716 participants from 48 randomised clinical trials were available for this analysis. Pre-randomisation mean systolic/diastolic blood pressures were 146/84 mm Hg in participants with previous cardiovascular disease (n=157 728) and 157/89 mm Hg in participants without previous cardiovascular disease (n=186 988). There was substantial spread in participants' blood pressure at baseline, with 31 239 (19·8%) of participants with previous cardiovascular disease and 14 928 (8·0%) of individuals without previous cardiovascular disease having a systolic blood pressure of less than 130 mm Hg. The relative effects of blood pressure-lowering treatment were proportional to the intensity of systolic blood pressure reduction. After a median 4·15 years' follow-up (Q1-Q3 2·97-4·96), 42 324 participants (12·3%) had at least one major cardiovascular event. In participants without previous cardiovascular disease at baseline, the incidence rate for developing a major cardiovascular event per 1000 person-years was 31·9 (95% CI 31·3-32·5) in the comparator group and 25·9 (25·4-26·4) in the intervention group. In participants with previous cardiovascular disease at baseline, the corresponding rates were 39·7 (95% CI 39·0-40·5) and 36·0 (95% CI 35·3-36·7), in the comparator and intervention groups, respectively. Hazard ratios (HR) associated with a reduction of systolic blood pressure by 5 mm Hg for a major cardiovascular event were 0·91, 95% CI 0·89-0·94 for partipants without previous cardiovascular disease and 0·89, 0·86-0·92, for those with previous cardiovascular disease. In stratified analyses, there was no reliable evidence of heterogeneity of treatment effects on major cardiovascular events by baseline cardiovascular disease status or systolic blood pressure categories.

INTERPRETATION

In this large-scale analysis of randomised trials, a 5 mm Hg reduction of systolic blood pressure reduced the risk of major cardiovascular events by about 10%, irrespective of previous diagnoses of cardiovascular disease, and even at normal or high-normal blood pressure values. These findings suggest that a fixed degree of pharmacological blood pressure lowering is similarly effective for primary and secondary prevention of major cardiovascular disease, even at blood pressure levels currently not considered for treatment. Physicians communicating the indication for blood pressure lowering treatment to their patients should emphasise its importance on reducing cardiovascular risk rather than focusing on blood pressure reduction itself.

FUNDING

British Heart Foundation, UK National Institute for Health Research, and Oxford Martin School.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the detection and management of colorectal cancer in England: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

There are concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic has had a negative effect on cancer care but there is little direct evidence to quantify any effect. This study aims to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the detection and management of colorectal cancer in England.

METHODS

Data were extracted from four population-based datasets spanning NHS England (the National Cancer Cancer Waiting Time Monitoring, Monthly Diagnostic, Secondary Uses Service Admitted Patient Care and the National Radiotherapy datasets) for all referrals, colonoscopies, surgical procedures, and courses of rectal radiotherapy from Jan 1, 2019, to Oct 31, 2020, related to colorectal cancer in England. Differences in patterns of care were investigated between 2019 and 2020. Percentage reductions in monthly numbers and proportions were calculated.

FINDINGS

As compared to the monthly average in 2019, in April, 2020, there was a 63% (95% CI 53-71) reduction (from 36 274 to 13 440) in the monthly number of 2-week referrals for suspected cancer and a 92% (95% CI 89-95) reduction in the number of colonoscopies (from 46 441 to 3484). Numbers had just recovered by October, 2020. This resulted in a 22% (95% CI 8-34) relative reduction in the number of cases referred for treatment (from a monthly average of 2781 in 2019 to 2158 referrals in April, 2020). By October, 2020, the monthly rate had returned to 2019 levels but did not exceed it, suggesting that, from April to October, 2020, over 3500 fewer people had been diagnosed and treated for colorectal cancer in England than would have been expected. There was also a 31% (95% CI 19-42) relative reduction in the numbers receiving surgery in April, 2020, and a lower proportion of laparoscopic and a greater proportion of stoma-forming procedures, relative to the monthly average in 2019. By October, 2020, laparoscopic surgery and stoma rates were similar to 2019 levels. For rectal cancer, there was a 44% (95% CI 17-76) relative increase in the use of neoadjuvant radiotherapy in April, 2020, relative to the monthly average in 2019, due to greater use of short-course regimens. Although in June, 2020, there was a drop in the use of short-course regimens, rates remained above 2019 levels until October, 2020.

INTERPRETATION

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a sustained reduction in the number of people referred, diagnosed, and treated for colorectal cancer. By October, 2020, achievement of care pathway targets had returned to 2019 levels, albeit with smaller volumes of patients and with modifications to usual practice. As pressure grows in the NHS due to the second wave of COVID-19, urgent action is needed to address the growing burden of undetected and untreated colorectal cancer in England.

FUNDING

Cancer Research UK, the Medical Research Council, Public Health England, Health Data Research UK, NHS Digital, and the National Institute for Health Research Oxford Biomedical Research Centre.

Current perceptions and practices in lipid management: results of a European Society of Cardiology/European Atherosclerosis Society Survey

AIMS

We sought to evaluate physicians' opinions and practices in lipid management.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A web-based survey by the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) and European Atherosclerosis Society (EAS) was distributed to 70 696 individuals at two time points, before and after publication of the 2019 ESC/EAS dyslipidaemia guidelines. Respondents (1271 in the first and 1056 in the second part) were most commonly cardiologists in Europe. More than 90% of participants reported that they regularly measure lipid levels and discuss lipid-lowering treatment with patients. More than 87% found the use of LDL-C goals useful or potentially useful, although it was acknowledged that recommended goals are frequently not achieved. Regarding the LDL-C goal according to the 2019 guidelines (<1.4 mmol/L for very high-risk patients), more than 70% of respondents felt that it is based on solid scientific evidence, but 31% noted that implementation should also consider available local resources and patient preferences. Statin intolerance was perceived as infrequent, affecting 1-5% of patients according to most respondents but was the main reason for not prescribing a statin to secondary-prevention patients, followed by patient non-adherence. Although most respondents reported that 11-20% of secondary-prevention patients have an indication to add a non-statin medication, fewer patients (<10% according to most respondents) receive these medications.

CONCLUSIONS

This survey shows a high level of acceptance of the LDL-C treatment goals recommended by current ESC/EAS guidelines. Although patient-related factors were the main reported reasons for suboptimal lipid-lowering therapy, physician inertia to intensify treatment cannot be excluded as an additional contributing factor.

Conventional and Genetic Evidence on the Association between Adiposity and CKD

BACKGROUND

The size of any causal contribution of central and general adiposity to CKD risk and the underlying mechanism of mediation are unknown.

METHODS

Data from 281,228 UK Biobank participants were used to estimate the relevance of waist-to-hip ratio and body mass index (BMI) to CKD prevalence. Conventional approaches used logistic regression. Genetic analyses used Mendelian randomization (MR) and data from 394 waist-to-hip ratio and 773 BMI-associated loci. Models assessed the role of known mediators (diabetes mellitus and BP) by adjusting for measured values (conventional analyses) or genetic associations of the selected loci (multivariable MR).

RESULTS

Evidence of CKD was found in 18,034 (6.4%) participants. Each 0.06 higher measured waist-to-hip ratio and each 5-kg/m² increase in BMI were associated with 69% (odds ratio, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.64 to 1.74) and 58% (1.58; 1.55 to 1.62) higher odds of CKD, respectively. In analogous MR analyses, each 0.06-genetically-predicted higher waist-to-hip ratio was associated with a 29% (1.29; 1.20 to 1.38) increased odds of CKD, and each 5-kg/m² genetically-predicted higher BMI was associated with a 49% (1.49; 1.39 to 1.59) increased odds. After adjusting for diabetes and measured BP, chi-squared values for associations for waist-to-hip ratio and BMI fell by 56%. In contrast, mediator adjustment using multivariable MR found 83% and 69% reductions in chi-squared values for genetically-predicted waist-to-hip ratio and BMI models, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Genetic analyses suggest that conventional associations between central and general adiposity with CKD are largely causal. However, conventional approaches underestimate mediating roles of diabetes, BP, and their correlates. Genetic approaches suggest these mediators explain most of adiposity-CKD-associated risk.

A novel approach using hand-held echocardiography to guide the diagnosis of heart failure in pregnant women in a low-resource setting; Maternal and Perinatal Health Research Collaboration

Background

Point of care imaging devices are promising tools for cardiovascular imaging in low-resource settings.

Purpose

Our aim was to determine whether hand-held echocardiography scans performed by obstetricians can help to identify the cardiac phenotypes in pregnant women with heart failure in India.

Methods

In November 2018, eighteen obstetricians from 10 hospitals across the states of Assam, Meghalaya and Uttar Pradesh were given 2 days of hands-on training in image acquisition using Philips Lumify devices. Obstetricians were asked to follow a simplified protocol of image acquisition and optimisation designed by the Oxford Cardiovascular Clinical Research Facility team. The protocol includes 3 key echocardiography views; parasternal long axis, parasternal short axis, and apical four chamber. Remote supervision and constructive feedback on performance was provided to improve image quality. Echocardiographic images of 269 pregnant women (with and without suspected heart failure) were acquired by the trained obstetricians, between February 2018 and January 2020. The first 147 scans were transferred with end-to-end encryption to the University of Oxford Research Echocardiography Core Laboratory (ORECL). Image interpretation and formal quality assessment was performed by 2 experienced echocardiographers.

Results

Parasternal long axis image quality was assessed as good in 78.3%, and was superior to both the parasternal short axis view (76.5%) and the apical 4-chamber view (61.9%). Image depth and gain optimisation was the main reason for loss of quality. The acquisition quality was related to reported clinical disease severity, and advanced pregnancy status. Left ventricular systolic function was impaired in 32 participants (21.9%), and 23.3% of the cohort had a dilated left atrium. Rheumatic heart disease was found in 12 participants (8.3%), in which the mitral valve was stenotic; 10 severe and 1 moderate. Mitral regurgitation was reported in 29 cases (20.8%); 6 severe, 7 moderate and 16 mild. Tricuspid and aortic valve abnormalities were also detected. Pericardial effusion was reported in 45 participants (30.8%).

Conclusion

Obstetricians with supervised training, using hand-held echocardiography have demonstrated acceptable image acquisition quality which could be assessed through core laboratory analysis to detect cardiac abnormalities. Such an approach could be useful to guide the diagnosis of heart failure in pregnant women in low-resource settings. Further training for the obstetricians and image quality assurance have been implemented in the ongoing MaatHRI study with plans to conduct a validation analysis.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): Medical Research Council (MRC), UK Fellowship for M Nair.

Thromboxane metabolite excretion is associated with serious vascular events in diabetes mellitus: a sub-study of the ASCEND trial

Background

Platelet activation plays a major role in the atherothrombotic complications of diabetes. Thromboxane (TX)A2 is a pro-thrombotic prostanoid, synthesized via cyclooxygenase-1 and released by activated platelets. The metabolism of TXA2 in vivo leads to a major stable end-product, 11-dehydro-TXB2 (TXM), measurable in urine and reflecting the whole-body rate of TXA2 biosynthesis. In two large trials of high-risk, aspirin-treated (mostly, without diabetes) patients, (CHARISMA and HOPE trials), the baseline rate of urinary TXM excretion was an independent predictor of future cardiovascular events.

Purpose

The aim of the ASCEND (A Study of Cardiovascular Events in Diabetes) TXM sub-study was to investigate the association between baseline urinary TXM and future serious vascular events or revascularization (SVE-R), major bleeds and incident cancer independent of other risk factors and treatment, in people with diabetes and no manifest cardiovascular disease at trial entry.

Methods

Urinary TXM was measured by a previously GC/MS-validated, immunoassay in 6,487 participants with eligible baseline samples. Analyses excluded 539 participants using NSAIDs. TXM appeared log-normally distributed, so analyses were by quintiles and per SD (=0.622) of continuous loge TXM. The association of loge TXM with outcome was adjusted by basic factors (age, sex, sample volume and randomized treatment allocation) and by the predictors of log TXM (smoking, type 2 diabetes treated with insulin or oral hypoglycaemics, HDL cholesterol, body mass index, urinary albumin/creatinine ratio, eGFR). The association of log TXM with non-vascular, non-cancer MedDRA outcomes was investigated to determine whether TXM had a general effect on outcome. During a mean of 6.6 years follow-up there were 618 SVE-Rs, 206 bleeds and 700 cancers among these patients.

Results

Log TXM correlated significantly with SVE-R, hazard ratio (HR) per 1 SD of log TXM: 1.13 (1.04–1.23), p=0.003 (Figure 1, panel a), non-significantly with major bleeds [HR 1.15 (1.00–1.32), p=0.055] (Figure 1, panel b), and marginally significantly with cancer [HR 1.09 (1.01–1.17), p=0.03] (Figure 1, panel c). There was no association of log TXM with non-vascular non-cancer MedDRA outcomes (HR per 1 SD, 0.99; 99% CI, 0.94–1.05).

Conclusion

The rate of urinary TXM excretion, a non-invasive biomarker of TXA2-mediated platelet activation in vivo, is log-linearly associated with serious vascular events independent of other risk factors in people with diabetes. Its potential association with cancer must be viewed as hypothesis-generating and needs confirmation.

Figure 1

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Public grant(s) – EU funding. Main funding source(s): IMI1: Surrogate markers for micro- and macro-vascular hard endpoints for innovative diabetes tools (SUMMIT).