Red Meat Intake and the Risk of Cardiovascular Diseases: A Prospective Cohort Study in the Million Veteran Program

BACKGROUND

Red meat consumption was associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in prospective cohort studies and a profile of biomarkers favoring high CVD risk in short-term controlled trials. However, several recent systematic reviews and meta-analyses concluded with no or weak evidence for limiting red meat intake.

OBJECTIVES

To prospectively examine the associations between red meat intake and incident CVD in an ongoing cohort study with diverse socioeconomic and racial or ethnic backgrounds.

METHODS

Our study included 148,506 participants [17,804 female (12.0%)] who were free of cancer, diabetes, and CVD at baseline from the Million Veteran Program. A food frequency questionnaire measured red meat intakes at baseline. Nonfatal myocardial infarction and acute ischemic stroke were identified through a high-throughput phenotyping algorithm, and fatal CVD events were identified by searching the National Death Index.

RESULTS

Comparing the extreme categories of intake, the multivariate-adjusted relative risks of CVD was 1.18 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.38; P-trend < 0.0001) for total red meat, 1.14 (95% CI: 0.96, 1.36; P-trend = 0.01) for unprocessed red meat, and 1.29 (95% CI: 1.04, 1.60; P-trend = 0.003) for processed red meat. We observed a more pronounced positive association between red meat intake and CVD in African American participants than in White participants (P-interaction = 0.01). Replacing 0.5 servings/d of red meat with 0.5 servings/d of nuts, whole grains, and skimmed milk was associated with 14% (RR: 0.86; 95% CI: 0.83, 0.90), 7% (RR: 0.93; 95% CI: 0.89, 0.96), and 4% (RR: 0.96; 95% CI: 0.94, 0.99) lower risks of CVD, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Red meat consumption is associated with an increased risk of CVD. Our findings support lowering red meat intake and replacing red meat with plant-based protein sources or low-fat dairy foods as a key dietary recommendation for the prevention of CVD.

Consumption of 100% Fruit Juice and Body Weight in Children and Adults: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Importance

Concerns have been raised that frequent consumption of 100% fruit juice may promote weight gain. Current evidence on fruit juice and weight gain has yielded mixed findings from both observational studies and clinical trials.

Objective

To synthesize the available evidence on 100% fruit juice consumption and body weight in children and adults.

Data Sources

MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane databases were searched through May 18, 2023.

Study Selection

Prospective cohort studies of at least 6 months and randomized clinical trials (RCTs) of at least 2 weeks assessing the association of 100% fruit juice with body weight change in children and adults were included. In the trials, fruit juices were compared with noncaloric controls.

Data Extraction and Synthesis

Data were pooled using random-effects models and presented as β coefficients with 95% CIs for cohort studies and mean differences (MDs) with 95% CIs for RCTs.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Change in body mass index (BMI; calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared) was assessed in children and change in body weight in adults.

Results

A total of 42 eligible studies were included in this analysis, including 17 among children (17 cohorts; 0 RCTs; 45 851 children; median [IQR] age, 8 [1-15] years) and 25 among adults (6 cohorts; 19 RCTs; 268 095 adults; median [IQR] age among cohort studies, 48 [41-61] years; median [IQR] age among RCTs, 42 [25-59]). Among cohort studies in children, each additional serving per day of 100% fruit juice was associated with a 0.03 (95% CI, 0.01-0.05) higher BMI change. Among cohort studies in adults, studies that did not adjust for energy showed greater body weight gain (0.21 kg; 95% CI, 0.15-0.27 kg) than studies that did adjust for energy intake (-0.08 kg; 95% CI, -0.11 to -0.05 kg; P for meta-regression <.001). RCTs in adults found no significant association of assignment to 100% fruit juice with body weight but the CI was wide (MD, -0.53 kg; 95% CI, -1.55 to 0.48 kg).

Conclusion and Relevance

Based on the available evidence from prospective cohort studies, in this systematic review and meta-analysis, 1 serving per day of 100% fruit juice was associated with BMI gain among children. Findings in adults found a significant association among studies unadjusted for total energy, suggesting potential mediation by calories. Further trials of 100% fruit juice and body weight are desirable. Our findings support guidance to limit consumption of fruit juice to prevent intake of excess calories and weight gain.

Plant-Based Diets and Risk of Hip Fracture in Postmenopausal Women

Importance

Previous research has found that vegetarian diets are associated with lower bone mineral density and higher risk of fractures, but these studies did not differentiate the quality of the plant-based foods.

Objective

To examine the association between the quality of plant-based diets (not necessarily vegan but also omnivorous) and hip fracture risk among postmenopausal women in the Nurses' Health Study.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study analyzed data from 70 285 postmenopausal women who participated in the US Nurses' Health Study from 1984 through 2014. Data were analyzed from January 1 to July 31, 2023.

Main outcomes and Measures

Hip fractures were self-reported on biennial questionnaires. Diet was assessed every 4 years using a validated semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire. Plant-based diet quality was assessed using 2 previously established indices: the healthful Plant-Based Diet Index (hPDI), for which healthy plant foods (whole grains, fruits, vegetables, nuts, legumes, vegetable oils, and tea or coffee) received positive scores, whereas less healthy plant foods (fruit juices, sweetened beverages, refined grains, potatoes, and sweets or desserts) and animal foods received reversed scores; and the unhealthful Plant-Based Diet Index (uPDI), for which positive scores were given to less healthy plant foods and reversed scores to healthy plant and animal foods. Quintile scores of 18 food groups were summed, with a theoretical range for both indices of 18 to 90 (highest adherence). Cox proportional hazards regression with time-varying covariates was used to compute hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for hip fracture.

Results

In total, 70 285 participants (mean [SD] age, 54.92 [4.48] years; 100% White women) were included, and 2038 cases of hip fracture were ascertained during the study and for up to 30 years of follow-up. Neither the hPDI (HR for highest vs lowest quintile, 0.97 [95% CI, 0.83-1.14]) nor the uPDI (HR for highest vs lowest quintile, 1.02 [95% CI, 0.87-1.20]) for long-term diet adherence was associated with hip fracture risk. However, when examining recent intake for the highest vs lowest quintiles, the hPDI was associated with 21% lower risk of hip fracture (HR, 0.79 [95% CI, 0.68-0.92]; P = .02 for trend), and the uPDI was associated with 28% higher risk (1.28 [95% CI, 1.09-1.51]; P = .008 for trend).

Conclusions and Relevance

Findings of this cohort study indicated that long-term adherence to healthful or unhealthful plant-based diets as assessed by hPDI and uPDI scores was not associated with hip fracture risk. Future research should clarify whether the associations observed with recent dietary intake are due to short-term effects of these dietary patterns, reverse causality, or both.

Plasma metabolite predictors of metabolic syndrome incidence and reversion

BACKGROUND

Metabolic Syndrome (MetS) is a progressive pathophysiological state defined by a cluster of cardiometabolic traits. However, little is known about metabolites that may be predictors of MetS incidence or reversion. Our objective was to identify plasma metabolites associated with MetS incidence or MetS reversion.

METHODS

The study included 1468 participants without cardiovascular disease (CVD) but at high CVD risk at enrollment from two case-cohort studies nested within the PREvención con DIeta MEDiterránea (PREDIMED) study with baseline metabolomics data. MetS was defined in accordance with the harmonized International Diabetes Federation and the American Heart Association/National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute criteria, which include meeting 3 or more thresholds for waist circumference, triglyceride, HDL cholesterol, blood pressure, and fasting blood glucose. MetS incidence was defined by not having MetS at baseline but meeting the MetS criteria at a follow-up visit. MetS reversion was defined by MetS at baseline but not meeting MetS criteria at a follow-up visit. Plasma metabolome was profiled by LC-MS. Multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models and elastic net regularized regressions were used to assess the association of 385 annotated metabolites with MetS incidence and MetS reversion after adjusting for potential risk factors.

RESULTS

Of the 603 participants without baseline MetS, 298 developed MetS over the median 4.8-year follow-up. Of the 865 participants with baseline MetS, 285 experienced MetS reversion. A total of 103 and 88 individual metabolites were associated with MetS incidence and MetS reversion, respectively, after adjusting for confounders and false discovery rate correction. A metabolomic signature comprised of 77 metabolites was robustly associated with MetS incidence (HR: 1.56 (95 % CI: 1.33-1.83)), and a metabolomic signature of 83 metabolites associated with MetS reversion (HR: 1.44 (95 % CI: 1.25-1.67)), both p < 0.001. The MetS incidence and reversion signatures included several lipids (mainly glycerolipids and glycerophospholipids) and branched-chain amino acids.

CONCLUSION

We identified unique metabolomic signatures, primarily comprised of lipids (including glycolipids and glycerophospholipids) and branched-chain amino acids robustly associated with MetS incidence; and several amino acids and glycerophospholipids associated with MetS reversion. These signatures provide novel insights on potential distinct mechanisms underlying the conditions leading to the incidence or reversion of MetS.

Association of glycaemic index and glycaemic load with type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and all-cause mortality: a meta-analysis of mega cohorts of more than 100 000 participants

BACKGROUND

There is debate over whether the glycaemic index of foods relates to chronic disease. We aimed to assess the associations between glycaemic index (GI) and glycaemic load (GL) and type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, diabetes-related cancers, and all-cause mortality.

METHODS

We did a meta-analysis of large cohorts (≥100 000 participants) identified from the Richard Doll Consortium. We searched the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Scopus for cohorts that prospectively examined associations between GI or GL and chronic disease outcomes published from database inception to Aug 4, 2023. Full-article review and extraction of summary estimates data were conducted by three independent reviewers. Primary outcomes were incident type 2 diabetes, total cardiovascular disease (including mortality), diabetes-related cancers (ie, bladder, breast, colorectal, endometrial, hepatic, pancreatic, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma), and all-cause mortality. We assessed comparisons between the lowest and highest quantiles of GI and GL, adjusting for dietary factors, and pooling their most adjusted relative risk (RR) estimates using a fixed-effects model. We also assessed associations between diets high in fibre and whole grains and the four main outcomes. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42023394689.

FINDINGS

From ten prospective large cohorts (six from the USA, one from Europe, two from Asia, and one international), we identified a total of 48 studies reporting associations between GI or GL and the outcomes of interest: 34 (71%) on various cancers, nine (19%) on cardiovascular disease, five (10%) on type 2 diabetes, and three (6%) on all-cause mortality. Consumption of high GI foods was associated with an increased incidence of type 2 diabetes (RR 1·27 [95% CI 1·21-1·34]; p<0·0001), total cardiovascular disease (1·15 [1·11-1·19]; p<0·0001), diabetes-related cancer (1·05 [1·02-1·08]; p=0·0010), and all-cause mortality (1·08 [1·05-1·12]; p<0·0001). Similar associations were seen between high GL and diabetes (RR 1·15 [95% CI 1·09-1·21]; p<0·0001) and total cardiovascular disease (1·15 [1·10-1·20]; p<0·0001). Associations between diets high in fibre and whole grains and the four main outcomes were similar to those for low GI diets.

INTERPRETATION

Dietary recommendations to reduce GI and GL could have effects on health outcomes that are similar to outcomes of recommendations to increase intake of fibre and whole grain.

FUNDING

Banting and Best and the Karuna Foundation.

Microbiome-based correction for random errors in nutrient profiles derived from self-reported dietary assessments

Since dietary intake is challenging to directly measure in large-scale cohort studies, we often rely on self-reported instruments (e.g., food frequency questionnaires, 24-hour recalls, and diet records) developed in nutritional epidemiology. Those self-reported instruments are prone to measurement errors, which can lead to inaccuracies in the calculation of nutrient profiles. Currently, few computational methods exist to address this problem. In the present study, we introduce a deep-learning approach --- Microbiome-based nutrient profile corrector (METRIC), which leverages gut microbial compositions to correct random errors in self-reported dietary assessments using 24-hour recalls or diet records. We demonstrate the excellent performance of METRIC in minimizing the simulated random errors, particularly for nutrients metabolized by gut bacteria in both synthetic and three real-world datasets. Further research is warranted to examine the utility of METRIC to correct actual measurement errors in self-reported dietary assessment instruments.

Plasma metabolite profile of legume consumption and future risk of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease

BACKGROUND

Legume consumption has been linked to a reduced risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and cardiovascular disease (CVD), while the potential association between plasma metabolites associated with legume consumption and the risk of cardiometabolic diseases has never been explored. Therefore, we aimed to identify a metabolite signature of legume consumption, and subsequently investigate its potential association with the incidence of T2D and CVD.

METHODS

The current cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis was conducted in 1833 PREDIMED study participants (mean age 67 years, 57.6% women) with available baseline metabolomic data. A subset of these participants with 1-year follow-up metabolomics data (n = 1522) was used for internal validation. Plasma metabolites were assessed through liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. Cross-sectional associations between 382 different known metabolites and legume consumption were performed using elastic net regression. Associations between the identified metabolite profile and incident T2D and CVD were estimated using multivariable Cox regression models.

RESULTS

Specific metabolic signatures of legume consumption were identified, these included amino acids, cortisol, and various classes of lipid metabolites including diacylglycerols, triacylglycerols, plasmalogens, sphingomyelins and other metabolites. Among these identified metabolites, 22 were negatively and 18 were positively associated with legume consumption. After adjustment for recognized risk factors and legume consumption, the identified legume metabolite profile was inversely associated with T2D incidence (hazard ratio (HR) per 1 SD: 0.75, 95% CI 0.61-0.94; p = 0.017), but not with CVD incidence risk (1.01, 95% CI 0.86-1.19; p = 0.817) over the follow-up period.

CONCLUSIONS

This study identified a set of 40 metabolites associated with legume consumption and with a reduced risk of T2D development in a Mediterranean population at high risk of cardiovascular disease.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN35739639.

Type 2 diabetes metabolomics score and risk of progression to type 2 diabetes among women with a history of gestational diabetes mellitus

BACKGROUND

Several metabolites are individually related to incident type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk. We prospectively evaluated a novel T2D-metabolite pattern with a risk of progression to T2D among high-risk women with a history of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM).

METHODS

The longitudinal Nurses' Health Study II cohort enroled 116,429 women in 1989 and collected blood samples from 1996 to 1999. We profiled plasma metabolites in 175 incident T2D cases and 175 age-matched controls, all with a history of GDM before the blood draw. We derived a metabolomics score from 21 metabolites previously associated with incident T2D in the published literature by scoring according to the participants' quintile (1-5 points) of each metabolite. We modelled the T2D metabolomics score categorically in quartiles and continuously per 1 standard deviation (SD) with the risk of incident T2D using conditional logistic regression models adjusting for body mass index at the blood draw, and other established T2D risk factors.

RESULTS

The percentage of women progressing to T2D ranged from 10% in the bottom T2D metabolomics score quartile to 78% in the highest score quartile. Adjusting for established T2D risk factors, women in the highest quartile had more than a 20-fold greater diabetes risk than women in the lowest quartile (odds ratios [OR] = 23.1 [95% CI = 8.6, 62.1]; p for trend<0.001). The continuous T2D metabolomics score was strongly and positively associated with incident T2D (adjusted OR = 2.7 per SD [95% CI = 1.9, 3.7], p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

A pattern of plasma metabolites among high-risk women is associated with a markedly elevated risk of progression to T2D later in life.

The metabolic potential of inflammatory and insulinaemic dietary patterns and risk of type 2 diabetes

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Diets with higher inflammatory and insulinaemic potential have been associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes. However, it remains unknown whether plasma metabolomic profiles related to proinflammatory/hyperinsulinaemic diets and to inflammatory/insulin biomarkers are associated with type 2 diabetes risk.

METHODS

We analysed 6840 participants from the Nurses' Health Study and Health Professionals Follow-up Study to identify the plasma metabolome related to empirical dietary inflammatory pattern (EDIP), empirical dietary index for hyperinsulinemia (EDIH), four circulating inflammatory biomarkers and C-peptide. Dietary intakes were assessed using validated food frequency questionnaires. Plasma metabolomic profiling was conducted by LC-MS/MS. Metabolomic signatures were derived using elastic net regression. Multivariable Cox regression was used to examine associations of the metabolomic profiles with type 2 diabetes risk.

RESULTS

We identified 27 metabolites commonly associated with both EDIP and inflammatory biomarker z score and 21 commonly associated with both EDIH and C-peptide. Higher metabolomic dietary inflammatory potential (MDIP), reflecting higher metabolic potential of both an inflammatory dietary pattern and circulating inflammatory biomarkers, was associated with higher type 2 diabetes risk. The HR comparing highest vs lowest quartiles of MDIP was 3.26 (95% CI 2.39, 4.44). We observed a strong positive association with type 2 diabetes risk for the metabolomic signature associated with EDIP-only (HR 3.75; 95% CI 2.71, 5.17) or inflammatory biomarkers-only (HR 4.07; 95% CI 2.91, 5.69). In addition, higher metabolomic dietary index for hyperinsulinaemia (MDIH), reflecting higher metabolic potential of both an insulinaemic dietary pattern and circulating C-peptide, was associated with greater type 2 diabetes risk (HR 3.00; 95% CI 2.22, 4.06); further associations with type 2 diabetes were HR 2.79 (95% CI 2.07, 3.76) for EDIH-only signature and HR 3.89 (95% CI 2.82, 5.35) for C-peptide-only signature. The diet scores were significantly associated with risk, although adjustment for the corresponding metabolomic signature scores attenuated the associations with type 2 diabetes, these remained significant.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

The metabolomic signatures reflecting proinflammatory or hyperinsulinaemic diets and related biomarkers were positively associated with type 2 diabetes risk, supporting that these dietary patterns may influence type 2 diabetes risk via the regulation of metabolism.

Impact of 8 lifestyle factors on mortality and life expectancy among United States veterans: The Million Veteran Program

BACKGROUND

Lifestyle medicine has been proposed as a way to address the root causes of chronic disease and their associated health care costs.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to estimate mortality risk and longevity associated with individual lifestyle factors and comprehensive lifestyle therapy.

METHODS

Age- and sex-specific mortality rates were calculated on the basis of 719,147 veterans aged 40-99 y enrolled in the Veteran Affairs Million Veteran Program (2011-2019). Hazard ratios and estimated increase in life expectancy were examined among a subgroup of 276,132 veterans with complete data on 8 lifestyle factors at baseline. The 8 lifestyle factors included never smoking, physical activity, no excessive alcohol consumption, restorative sleep, nutrition, stress management, social connections, and no opioid use disorder.

RESULTS

On the basis of 1.12 million person-years of follow-up, 34,247 deaths were recorded. Among veterans who adopted 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8 lifestyle factors, the adjusted hazard ratios for mortality were 0.74 (0.60-0.90), 0.60 (95% CI: 0.49, 0.73), 0.50 (95% CI: 0.41, 0.61), 0.43 (95% CI: 0.35, 0.52), 0.35 (95% CI: 0.29, 0.43), 0.27 (95% CI: 0.22, 0.33), 0.21 (95% CI: 0.17, 0.26), and 0.13 (95% CI: 0.10, 0.16), respectively, as compared with veterans with no adopted lifestyle factors. The estimated life expectancy at age 40 y was 23.0, 26.5, 28.8, 30.8, 32.7, 35.1, 38.3, 41.3, and 47.0 y among males and 27.0, 28.8, 33.1, 38.0, 39.2, 41.4, 43.8, 46.3, and 47.5 y for females who adopted 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8 lifestyle factors, respectively. The difference in life expectancy at age 40 y was 24.0 y for male veterans and 20.5 y for female veterans when comparing adoption of 8-9 lifestyle factors.

CONCLUSIONS

A combination of 8 lifestyle factors is associated with a significantly lower risk of premature mortality and an estimated prolonged life expectancy.

Successful weight regain attenuation by autologous fecal microbiota transplantation is associated with non-core gut microbiota changes during weight loss; randomized controlled trial

We previously reported that autologous-fecal-microbiota-transplantation (aFMT), following 6 m of lifestyle intervention, attenuated subsequent weight regain and insulin rebound for participants consuming a high-polyphenol green-Mediterranean diet. Here, we explored whether specific changes in the core (abundant) vs. non-core (low-abundance) gut microbiome taxa fractions during the weight-loss phase (0-6 m) were differentially associated with weight maintenance following aFMT. Eighty-two abdominally obese/dyslipidemic participants (age = 52 years; 6 m weightloss = -8.3 kg) who provided fecal samples (0 m, 6 m) were included. Frozen 6 m's fecal samples were processed into 1 g, opaque and odorless aFMT capsules. Participants were randomly assigned to receive 100 capsules containing their own fecal microbiota or placebo over 8 m-14 m in ten administrations (adherence rate > 90%). Gut microbiome composition was evaluated using shotgun metagenomic sequencing. Non-core taxa were defined as ≤ 66% prevalence across participants. Overall, 450 species were analyzed. At baseline, 13.3% were classified as core, and Firmicutes presented the highest core proportion by phylum. During 6 m weight-loss phase, abundance of non-core species changed more than core species (P < .0001). Subject-specific changes in core and non-core taxa fractions were strongly correlated (Jaccard Index; r = 0.54; P < .001). Following aFMT treatment, only participants with a low 6 m change in core taxa, and a high change in non-core taxa, avoided 8-14 m weight regain (aFMT = -0.58 ± 2.4 kg, corresponding placebo group = 3.18 ± 3.5 kg; P = .02). In a linear regression model, low core/high non-core 6 m change was the only combination that was significantly associated with attenuated 8-14 m weight regain (P = .038; P = .002 for taxa patterns/treatment intervention interaction). High change in non-core, low-abundance taxa during weight-loss might mediate aFMT treatment success for weight loss maintenance.ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03020186.

Carbohydrate quality, fecal microbiota and cardiometabolic health in older adults: a cohort study

The impact of carbohydrate quality, measured by the carbohydrate quality index (CQI), on gut microbiota and health has been scarcely investigated. The aim of this study was to cross-sectionally and longitudinally explore the relationships between CQI, fecal microbiota, and cardiometabolic risk factors in an elderly Mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk. At baseline and 1-year, CQI was assessed from food frequency questionnaires data, cardiometabolic risk factors were measured, and fecal microbiota profiled from 16S sequencing. Multivariable-adjusted linear regression models were fitted to assess the associations between tertiles of baseline CQI, fecal microbiota, and cardiometabolic risk factors at baseline, and between tertiles of 1-year change in CQI, 1-year change in fecal microbiota and cardiometabolic risk factors. Cross-sectionally, higher CQI was positively associated with Shannon alpha diversity index, and abundance of genera Faecalibacterium and Christensenellaceae R7 group, and negatively associated with the abundance of Odoribacter, and uncultured Rhodospirillales genera. Some of these genera were associated with higher glycated hemoglobin and lower body mass index. In addition, we observed a positive association between CQI, and some pathways related with the metabolism of butyrate precursors and plants-origin molecules. Longitudinally, 1-year improvement in CQI was associated with a concurrent increase in the abundance of genera Butyrivibrio. Increased abundance of this genera was associated with 1-year improvement in insulin status. These observations suggest that a better quality of carbohydrate intake is associated with improved metabolic health, and this improvement could be modulated by greater alpha diversity and abundance of specific genera linked to beneficial metabolic outcomes.

Changes in Coffee Intake, Added Sugar and Long-Term Weight Gain - Results from Three Large Prospective US Cohort Studies

BACKGROUND

Consumption of both caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee has been reported to attenuate long-term weight gain. Whether the association between coffee consumption and weight gain depends on the addition of sugar, cream, or coffee whitener remains unclear.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to study the associations between changes in coffee consumption, caffeine intake, and weight changes by considering the addition of sugar, cream, or a nondairy coffee whitener.

METHODS

We used 3 large prospective cohorts - the Nurses' Health Study (1986 - 2010), Nurses' Health Study II (1991 - 2015) and Health Professional Follow-up Study (1991 - 2014). We applied multivariable linear regression models with robust variance estimators to assess the association of changes in coffee habits within each 4-y interval with concurrent weight changes. Results across the 3 cohorts were pooled using inverse-variance weights.

RESULTS

After multivariable adjustment, each 1 cup per day increment in unsweetened caffeinated coffee was associated with a reduction in 4-y weight gain of -0.12 kg (95 % CI: -0.18, -0.05 kg) and of -0.12 kg (95 % CI: -0.16, -0.08 kg) for unsweetened decaffeinated coffee. The habits of adding cream or nondairy coffee whitener were not significantly linked to weight changes. Adding a teaspoon of sugar was associated with a 4-y weight gain of +0.09 kg (0.07, 0.12 kg). Stratified analyses suggested stronger magnitude of the observed associations with younger age and higher baseline BMI. Neither caffeine nor coffee modified the association of adding sugar to any food or beverage with weight changes.

CONCLUSIONS

An increase in intake of unsweetened caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee was inversely associated with weight gain. The addition of sugar to coffee counteracted coffee's benefit for possible weight management. To the contrary, adding cream or coffee whitener was not associated with greater weight gain.

Red meat intake and risk of type 2 diabetes in a prospective cohort study of United States females and males

BACKGROUND

Studies with methodological advancements are warranted to confirm the relation of red meat consumption to the incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D).

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to assess the relationships of intakes of total, processed, and unprocessed red meat to risk of T2D and to estimate the effects of substituting different protein sources for red meats on T2D risk.

METHODS

Our study included 216,695 participants (81% females) from the Nurses' Health Study (NHS), NHS II, and Health Professionals Follow-up Study (HPFS). Red meat intakes were assessed with semiquantitative food frequency questionnaires (FFQs) every 2 to 4 y since the study baselines. We used multivariable-adjusted proportional hazards models to estimate the associations between red meats and T2D.

RESULTS

Over 5,483,981 person-years of follow-up, we documented 22,761 T2D cases. Intakes of total, processed, and unprocessed red meat were positively and approximately linearly associated with higher risks of T2D. Comparing the highest to the lowest quintiles, hazard ratios (HR) were 1.62 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.53, 1.71) for total red meat, 1.51 (95% CI: 1.44, 1.58) for processed red meat, and 1.40 (95% CI: 1.33, 1.47) for unprocessed red meat. The percentage lower risk of T2D associated with substituting 1 serving/d of nuts and legumes for total red meat was 30% (HR = 0.70, 95% CI: 0.66, 0.74), for processed red meat was 41% (HR = 0.59, 95% CI: 0.55, 0.64), and for unprocessed red meat was 29% (HR = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.67, 0.75); Substituting 1 serving/d of dairy for total, processed, or unprocessed red meat was also associated with significantly lower risk of T2D. The observed associations became stronger after we calibrated dietary intakes to intakes assessed by weighed diet records.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study supports current dietary recommendations for limiting consumption of red meat intake and emphasizes the importance of different alternative sources of protein for T2D prevention.

Plant-based diets and the incidence of cardiovascular disease: the Million Veteran Program

Background

A healthful plant-based diet was associated with lower risks of coronary heart disease and type 2 diabetes, and a favourable profile of adiposity-associated biomarkers, while an unhealthful plant-based diet was associated with elevated risk of cardiometabolic disease in health professional populations. However, little is known about the associations between plant-based dietary patterns and risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in US veterans.

Methods

The study population consisted of 148 506 participants who were free of diabetes, CVD and cancer at baseline in the Veterans Affairs (VA) Million Veteran Program. Diet was assessed using a Food Frequency Questionnaire at baseline. We calculated an overall Plant-Based Diet Index (PDI), a healthful PDI (hPDI) and an unhealthful PDI (uPDI). The CVD endpoints included non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI) and acute ischaemic stroke (AIS) identified through high-throughput phenotyping algorithms approach and fatal CVD events identified by searching the National Death Index.

Results

With up to 8 years of follow-up, we documented 5025 CVD cases. After adjustment for confounding factors, a higher PDI was significantly associated with a lower risk of CVD (HR comparing extreme quintiles=0.75, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.82, P trend<0.0001). We observed an inverse association between hPDI and the risk of CVD (HR comparing extreme quintiles=0.71, 95% CI 0.64 to 0.78, P trend<0.001), whereas uPDI was positively associated with the risk of CVD (HR comparing extreme quintiles=1.12, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.24, P trend<0.001). We found similar associations of hPDI with subtypes of CVD; a 10-unit increment in hPDI was associated with HRs (95% CI) of 0.81 (0.75 to 0.87) for fatal CVD, 0.86 (0.79 to 0.94) for non-fatal MI and 0.86 (0.78 to 0.95) for non-fatal AIS.

Conclusions

Plant-based dietary pattern enriched with healthier plant foods was associated with a substantially lower CVD risk in US veterans.

Types of dairy foods and risk of fragility fracture in the prospective Nurses' Health Study cohort

BACKGROUND

Fragility fractures present enormous health challenges for women. Dairy products provide many bone-beneficial nutrients, such as calcium and vitamin D. Individual dairy foods may exert different effects on bone health.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to investigate the associations between total dairy, yogurt, milk, and cheese and fragility fracture risk among females in the prospective Nurses' Health Study (NHS) conducted in the United States.

METHODS

In the current analysis, 103,003 females with mean age of 48 y were followed from 1980-2004. Proportional hazards models were used to estimate risk of first fracture (of the wrist, hip, or vertebrae) by intakes of dairy foods (total dairy, milk, yogurt, or cheese) obtained from a food frequency questionnaire. Fractures that were caused by high-trauma events were not included. We relied on self-reported data for wrist and hip fractures whereas for vertebral fractures, medical records were used to confirm cases.

RESULTS

A total of 5495 incident fracture cases were documented during follow-up. After controlling for relevant confounding variables, consumption of ≥2 servings/d of total dairy (compared with <1 serving/d) was associated with lower fracture risk (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.74; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.61, 0.89). More than 2 servings of milk per day (compared with <1 serving/d) were associated with a lower fracture risk (HR: 0.85; 95% CI: 0.77, 0.94). Intakes of calcium, vitamin D, and protein from nondairy sources did not modify the effects of total dairy or milk on fracture risk. There was no association between yogurt intake and fracture risk. Intake of cheese (≥1 servings/d compared with <1 serving/wk) was weakly associated with lower fracture risk (HR: 0.89; 95% CI: 0.79, 0.99).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher total dairy, milk, and cheese intakes are associated with lower risks of fracture in females in the NHS.

Mediterranean diet and female reproductive health over lifespan: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of the effects of Mediterranean diet on female reproductive health outcomes over the life-course.

DATA SOURCES

We searched PubMed, Embase, MEDLINE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), and ClinicalTrials.gov to identify eligible studies published till February 2022. Eligible references from identified studies and review articles were also considered.

STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Randomized controlled trials, prospective cohort studies, or nested case-control studies examining Mediterranean diet and major female reproductive outcomes over the lifespan, including clinical outcomes from childhood to adulthood (menarche, polycystic ovary syndrome, endometriosis, and outcomes related to fertility, pregnancy, and menopause), were included for review.

METHODS

Two independent reviewers screened and performed data extraction and risk-of-bias assessment. We performed random-effects meta-analysis to obtain summary relative risks and 95% confidence intervals for major female reproductive outcomes. Subgroup analyses were performed for several pregnancy outcomes according to timing of the interventions for randomized controlled trials and timing of the dietary assessment for observational studies.

RESULTS

Thirty-two studies (9 randomized controlled trials, 22 prospective cohort studies, and 1 nested case-control study) involving 103,204 predominantly White women (>95%) were included. The pooled relative risk (95% confidence interval) comparing randomization to Mediterranean diet vs a control diet based on 7 randomized controlled trials was 0.74 (0.55-0.99) for gestational diabetes mellitus, 0.45 (0.26-0.76) for preterm birth, 0.71 (0.51-1.00) for gestational hypertension, and 0.82 (0.54-1.22) for preeclampsia; the effect sizes for preterm birth were greater in randomized controlled trials that initiated the interventions in first trimester vs after first trimester (P heterogeneity=.02). We observed inverse associations for all the above-mentioned pregnancy outcomes based on 9 cohort studies. There was suggestive evidence of favorable associations between Mediterranean diet adherence with fertility and gestational weight management. Limited studies suggested associations between higher Mediterranean diet adherence and later time to menarche and fewer vasomotor menopausal symptoms, null associations for polycystic ovary syndrome-like phenotype and pregnancy loss, and positive associations for luteal phase deficiency.

CONCLUSION

Adherence to Mediterranean diet may lower risks of adverse pregnancy outcomes among predominantly White populations. For fertility-related outcomes, available evidence supporting potential beneficial effects is suggestive yet limited. For other reproductive outcomes across the lifespan, data remains sparse.

Low-Carbohydrate Diet Macronutrient Quality and Weight Change

Importance

The associations of low-carbohydrate diets (LCDs) with long-term weight management remains unclear, and the source and quality of macronutrients within LCDs are less explored.

Objectives

To prospectively examine associations between changes in LCD indices and weight change among US adults.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This prospective cohort study included initially healthy participants at baseline from the Nurses' Health Study (NHS; 1986-2010), Nurses' Health Study II (NHSII; 1991-2015), and Health Professionals Follow-up Study (HPFS; 1986-2018). Data analysis was performed between November 2022 and April 2023.

Exposures

Five LCD indices were examined: (1) a total LCD (TLCD) emphasizing overall lower carbohydrate intake; (2) an animal-based LCD (ALCD) that emphasized animal-sourced protein and fat; (3) a vegetable-based LCD (VLCD) that emphasized plant-sourced protein and fat; (4) a healthy LCD (HLCD) emphasizing less refined carbohydrates, more plant protein, and healthy fat; and (5) an unhealthy LCD (ULCD) emphasizing less healthful carbohydrates, more animal protein, and unhealthy fat.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The outcome of interest was 4-year changes in self-reported body weight.

Results

A total of 123 332 participants (mean [SD] age, 45.0 [9.7] years; 103 320 [83.8%] female) were included in this study. The median carbohydrate intake (as a percentage of energy) of the highest quintiles of TLCD score at baseline ranged from 38.3% in HPFS to 40.9% in NHSII. Mean weight gain over 4-year intervals among participants varied from 0.8 kg in the HPFS to 1.8 kg in the NHSII. After adjusting for demographics and baseline and concomitant changes of selected lifestyle factors, each 1-SD increase in TLCD score was associated with 0.06 (95% CI, 0.04-0.08) kg more weight gain over the 4-year periods. Similarly, participants gained 0.13 (95% CI, 0.11 to 0.14) kg per each 1-SD increase in ALCD score and 0.39 (95% CI, 0.37 to 0.40) kg per each 1-SD change in ULCD score. In contrast, each 1-SD increase in VLCD score was associated with 0.03 (95% CI, 0.01 to 0.04) kg less weight gain, and each 1-SD increase in HLCD score was associated with 0.36 (95% CI, 0.35 to 0.38) kg less weight gain. The associations were more pronounced among obese individuals (per 1-SD increase in HLCD score: BMI ≥30, 0.88 [95% CI, 0.80, 0.97] kg less weight gain; BMI <25, 0.23 [95% CI, 0.20, 0.26] kg less weight gain; P for interaction < .001).

Conclusions and Relevance

These findings suggest that the quality of LCDs may play a critical role in modulating long-term weight change. Only LCDs that emphasized high-quality protein, fat, and carbohydrates from whole grains and other plant-based foods were associated with less weight gain.

Portfolio Diet Score and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease: Findings From 3 Prospective Cohort Studies

BACKGROUND

The plant-based Portfolio dietary pattern includes recognized cholesterol-lowering foods (ie, plant protein, nuts, viscous fiber, phytosterols, and plant monounsaturated fats) shown to improve several cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in randomized controlled trials. However, there is limited evidence on the role of long-term adherence to the diet and CVD risk. The primary objective was to examine the relationship between the Portfolio Diet Score (PDS) and the risk of total CVD, coronary heart disease (CHD), and stroke.

METHODS

We prospectively followed 73 924 women in the Nurses' Health Study (1984-2016), 92 346 women in the Nurses' Health Study II (1991-2017), and 43 970 men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (1986-2016) without CVD or cancer at baseline. Diet was assessed using validated food frequency questionnaires at baseline and every 4 years using a PDS that positively ranks plant protein (legumes), nuts and seeds, viscous fiber sources, phytosterols (mg/day), and plant monounsaturated fat sources, and negatively ranks foods high in saturated fat and cholesterol.

RESULTS

During up to 30 years of follow-up, 16 917 incident CVD cases, including 10 666 CHD cases and 6473 strokes, were documented. After multivariable adjustment for lifestyle factors and a modified Alternate Healthy Eating Index (excluding overlapping components), comparing the highest with the lowest quintile, participants with a higher PDS had a lower risk of total CVD (pooled hazard ratio [HR], 0.86 [95% CI, 0.81-0.92]; Ptrend<0.001), CHD (pooled HR, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.80-0.93]; Ptrend=0.0001), and stroke (pooled HR, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.78-0.95]; Ptrend=0.0003). In addition, a 25-percentile higher PDS was associated with a lower risk of total CVD (pooled HR, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.89-0.95]), CHD (pooled HR, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.88-0.95]), and stroke (pooled HR, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.87-0.96]). Results remained consistent across sensitivity and most subgroup analyses, and there was no evidence of departure from linearity for CVD, CHD, or stroke. In a subset of participants, a higher PDS was associated with a more favorable blood lipid and inflammatory profile.

CONCLUSIONS

The PDS was associated with a lower risk of CVD, including CHD and stroke, and a more favorable blood lipid and inflammatory profile, in 3 large prospective cohorts.

Interplay between diet, circulating indolepropionate concentrations and cardiometabolic health in US populations

OBJECTIVES

To identify indolepropionate (IPA)-predicting gut microbiota species, investigate potential diet-microbiota interactions, and examine the prospective associations of circulating IPA concentrations with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and coronary heart disease (CHD) risk in free-living individuals.

DESIGN

We included 287 men from the Men's Lifestyle Validation Study, a substudy of the Health Professionals Follow-Up Study (HPFS), who provided up to two pairs of faecal samples and two blood samples. Diet was assessed using 7-day diet records. Associations between plasma concentrations of tryptophan metabolites and T2D CHD risk were examined in 13 032 participants from Nurses' Health Study (NHS), NHSII and HPFS.

RESULTS

We identified 17 microbial species whose abundance was significantly associated with plasma IPA concentrations. A significant association between higher tryptophan intake and higher IPA concentrations was only observed among men who had higher fibre intake and a higher microbial species score consisting of the 17 species (p-interaction<0.01). Dietary and plasma concentrations of tryptophan and most kynurenine pathway metabolites were positively associated with T2D risk (HRQ5 vs Q1 ranged from 1.17 to 1.46) while a significant inverse association was found for IPA (HRQ5 vs Q1 (95% CI) 0.70 (0.56 to 0.88)). No associations were found in CHD for any plasma tryptophan metabolites.

CONCLUSIONS

Specific microbial species and dietary fibre jointly predicted significantly higher circulating IPA concentrations at higher tryptophan intake. Dietary and plasma tryptophan, as well as its kynurenine pathway metabolites, demonstrated divergent associations from those for IPA, which was significantly predictive of lower risk of T2D.

Metabolomic profiles of chronic distress are associated with cardiovascular disease risk and inflammation-related risk factors

BACKGROUND

Chronic psychological distress is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and investigators have posited inflammatory factors may be centrally involved in these relationships. However, mechanistic evidence and molecular underpinnings of these processes remain unclear, and data are particularly sparse among women. This study examined if a metabolite profile linked with distress was associated with increased CVD risk and inflammation-related risk factors.

METHODS

A plasma metabolite-based distress score (MDS) of twenty chronic psychological distress-related metabolites was developed in cross-sectional, 1:1 matched case-control data comprised of 558 women from the Nurses' Health Study (NHS; 279 women with distress, 279 controls). This MDS was then evaluated in two other cohorts: the Women's Health Initiative Observational Cohort (WHI-OS) and the Prevención con Dieta Mediterránea (PREDIMED) trial. We tested the MDS's association with risk of future CVD in each sample and with levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) in the WHI-OS. The WHI-OS subsample included 944 postmenopausal women (472 CHD cases; mean time to event = 5.8 years); the PREDIMED subsample included 980 men and women (224 CVD cases, mean time to event = 3.1 years).

RESULTS

In the WHI-OS, a 1-SD increase in the plasma MDS was associated with a 20% increased incident CHD risk (odds ratio [OR] = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.04 - 1.38), adjusting for known CVD risk factors excluding total and HDL cholesterol. This association was attenuated after including total and HDL cholesterol. CRP mediated an average 12.9% (95% CI: 4.9% - 28%, p < 10-15) of the total effect of MDS on CHD risk when adjusting for matching factors. This effect was attenuated after adjusting for known CVD risk factors. Of the metabolites in the MDS, tryptophan and threonine were inversely associated with incident CHD risk in univariate models. In PREDIMED, each one SD increase in the MDS was associated with an OR of 1.19 (95% CI: 1.00 - 1.41) for incident CVD risk, after adjusting all risk factors. Similar associations were observed in men and women. Four metabolites in the MDS were associated with incident CVD risk in PREDIMED in univariate models. Biliverdin and C36:5 phosphatidylcholine (PC) plasmalogen had inverse associations; C16:0 ceramide and C18:0 lysophosphatidylethanolamine(LPE) each had positive associations with CVD risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study points to molecular alterations that may underlie the association between chronic distress and subsequent risk of cardiovascular disease in adults.

Low-fat diet Redux at WHO

Worldwide dietary guidelines in the late 20th century promoted a low-fat diet, based, in part, on the notion that dietary fat, the most energy dense macronutrient, causes excess weight gain. However, high-quality evidence accumulating since then refute a direct association between dietary fat and adiposity. Moreover, substitution of carbohydrates for unsaturated fat can increase insulin resistance and cardiometabolic disease, especially among populations with highly prevalent insulin resistance. In this context, the recent WHO conditional recommendation to carry forward the guidance to limit dietary fat to ≤30% seems ill advised and should be reconsidered.

Associations of dietary sugar types with coronary heart disease risk: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Higher intake of total sugar has been linked with coronary heart disease (CHD) risk, but the role of individual sugars, particularly fructose, is uncertain.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to investigate the associations of individual dietary sugars with CHD risk.

METHODS

In prospective cohort studies, we followed 76,815 women (Nurses' Health Study, 1980-2020) and 38,878 men (Health Professionals Follow-up Study, 1986-2016). Sugar and carbohydrate intake, including total fructose equivalents ([TFE] from fructose monosaccharides and sucrose), total glucose equivalents ([TGE] from glucose monosaccharides, disaccharides, and starch), and other sugar types, was measured every 2 to 4 y by semiquantitative food frequency questionnaires.

RESULTS

We documented 9,723 incident CHD cases over 40 years. In isocaloric substitution models with total fat as a comparison nutrient, comparing extreme quintiles of intake, hazard ratios (HRs), 95% confidence interval [CI]) for CHD risk were 1.31 (1.20 to 1.42; Ptrend < 0.001) for TGE and 1.03 (0.94 to 1.11; Ptrend = 0.25) for TFE. TFE from fruits and vegetables was not associated with CHD risk (Ptrend = 0.70), but TFE from added sugar and juice was associated with CHD risk (HR: 1.12, 95% CI: 1.04 to 1.20; Ptrend < 0.01). Intakes of total sugars and added sugar were positively associated with CHD risk (HRs: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.07 to 1.26, Ptrend < 0.001; 1.08, 95% CI: 0.99 to 1.16, Ptrend = 0.04).

CONCLUSIONS

Intakes of TGE, total sugar, added sugar, and fructose from added sugar and juice were associated with higher CHD risk, but TFE and fructose from fruits and vegetables were not.

A Primer on Systematic Review and Meta-analysis in Diabetes Research

A systematic review is a rigorous process that involves identifying, selecting, and synthesizing available evidence pertaining to an a priori-defined research question. The resulting evidence base may be summarized qualitatively or through a quantitative analytic approach known as meta-analysis. Systematic review and meta-analysis (SRMAs) have risen in popularity across the scientific realm including diabetes research. Although well-conducted SRMAs are an indispensable tool in informing evidence-based medicine, the proliferation of SRMAs has led to many reviews of questionable quality and misleading conclusions. The objective of this article is to provide up-to-date knowledge and a comprehensive understanding of strengths and limitations of SRMAs. We first provide an overview of the SRMA process and offer ways to identify common pitfalls at key steps. We then describe best practices as well as evolving approaches to mitigate biases, improve transparency, and enhance rigor. We discuss several recent developments in SRMAs including individual-level meta-analyses, network meta-analyses, umbrella reviews, and prospective meta-analyses. Additionally, we outline several strategies that can be used to enhance quality of SRMAs and present key questions that authors, editors, and readers should consider in preparing or critically reviewing SRMAs.